Have you considered that the Democrats aren’t actually doomed?
If the media are to be believed, Joe Biden will be put out to pasture any day now, even before he can oversee the midterms, which are billed to be a “nightmare,” “ominous,” and a “wipeout,” depending on the source.
And I don’t deny that there’s good reason for concern. President Biden’s approval rating hit an all-time low in the past few days with only 36 percent approval in the latest CNBC survey. Inflation remains the top issue for Americans and 69 percent of voters disapprove of how Biden is handling the economy. What’s more, 88 percent think the country is on the wrong track and only 26 percent of Democrats report that they want Biden to be the nominee in 2024.
Taken together with the fact that a president’s party usually does poorly in the midterms and Republicans have been favored on the generic ballot for several months, it doesn’t look good for Democrats in November.
But there is an emerging counter-narrative that isn’t making its way into written and TV commentary and deserves consideration. Plus, who doesn’t like a little game of devil’s advocate?
Bear with me here.
The generic congressional ballot has been the centerpiece of the “Democrats are doomed” narrative. There were certainly polls, like an ABC/Washington Post survey that found the GOP with a 10-point advantage that made it seem impossible Democrats would come out of the midterms losing fewer than 50 seats. Today, things look different. With the new New York Times/Sienna and Politico/Morning Consult polls, there have been 11 independent polls of the generic congressional ballot since Roe v. Wade ended and the Democrats have led overall. They now hold a 2.2-point advantage in the post-Roe polling world. And if the election were held today, Republicans would gain seven House seats — enough to regain control of the House but far from a red wave.
Gas prices increased through the first half of 2022 and were a major component of voter dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Having peaked at over $5 a gallon, it’s easy to see why. But they have been declining for four weeks, and not just by a few cents per gallon. They’re down just shy of 40 cents from a month ago and energy analysts say American consumers are spending $140 million less on gas today than they were four weeks ago. If the drop in prices continues, we are on track to be under $4 a gallon by the middle of August. If that happens, a core element of the case against Democrats is substantially weakened. It doesn’t fix inflation, which will persist, but it’ll make a big difference.
We’ve witnessed a divergence in Biden’s approval and support for Democrats overall. As Nate Silver wrote recently in FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s popularity may not tell us much about the midterms. If you look at crucial Senate races in states such as Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates are outperforming Biden by huge margins. According to recent polling, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) holds a 3-point edge over Herschel Walker, Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) leads JD Vance by 9 points, and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is up 9 nine points over Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. Biden is underwater in all three states, and in Georgia, for example, a split-ticket voter is emerging with Kemp-Warnock voters becoming a potentially serious factor in the election.
No one in their right mind would argue that abortion will supplant inflation or the economy as the most important issue to Americans, but the shift in significance to voters is undeniable. It has jumped to the fourth most important issue overall in FiveThirtyEight polling and 19 percent rank it as their leading concern, up from 9 percent in early June. Republicans are scrambling to deal with the consequences of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe and having to contend with horror stories like the 10-year-old from Ohio who was raped and forced to go to Indiana for an abortion. With some prominent Republicans such as Indiana’s Attorney General Todd Rokita saying the license of the doctor who performed the procedure should be investigated, Republicans are far out of step with Americans who support the right to abortion, albeit with some restrictions. The potential for this to backfire on the GOP is tremendous; they look more like zealots than protectors of life.
The last bright spot for Democrats worth mentioning is that, according to recent reporting, Donald Trump not only will run for president again in 2024 but wants to announce his candidacy before the midterms. Between the impact of the Jan. 6 hearings on Trump’s support, and the rise of other potential candidates such as Florida Gov. Ron Desantis, who is surging in Republican rankings overall and leading the president in his home state of Florida, Trump is rightfully worried about losing his grip on the party. Throwing his hat in the ring before the midterms gives Democrats a great opportunity to seize upon one of politics’ most successful messages: We can’t let Trump back in the White House.
Biden’s ratings may be terrible, but he still beats Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 44 percent to 41 percent. Not only is the prospect of Trump on the ballot a huge boon for Democrats, there’s always the hope that he will continue to spew his lies about the authenticity of the 2020 election and perhaps, if Democrats are really lucky, tell his supporters not to turn out since the election is rigged anyway, as he did in the Georgia runoffs last time around.
In my wildest dreams, I would not allow myself to think the Democrats will hold the House. But there is ample evidence to suggest they could avoid the predicted shellacking and retain the Senate. If that happens, Biden would have overseen one of the most successful midterms for the party in power in decades.
Bottom line: Voters may be sour on Biden, but that doesn’t mean they’re sweet on Republicans.
Jessica Tarlov is head of research at Bustle Digital Group and a Fox News contributor. She earned her Ph.D. at the London School of Economics in political science. Follow her on Twitter @JessicaTarlov.
Source: TEST FEED1
