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The Memo: Democrats pine for Trump as GOP nominee

Former President Trump met a muted response from many Republicans when he launched his 2024 White House bid at Mar-A-Lago this month. 

But his campaign is stirring excitement, and even some glee, from Democrats. 

Members of President Biden’s party are openly pining for Trump to become the 2024 Republican nominee, believing he is just too flawed to win a general election.  

They argue that the situation today is markedly different from 2016, not least because voters now know what they get with Trump in office. And Democrats are eager to have such a beatable opponent in an election that is likely to be challenging for their party. 

“I am hoping for Trump’s nomination, ‘cause I think he’s the easiest candidate to beat,” former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) told “The Briefing with Steve Scully” on SiriusXM this week. 

Dean, a presidential candidate in 2004 and subsequently the head of the Democratic National Committee, noted that he had warned his party in 2016 that Trump could win the presidency. 

Now, he insisted: “People are sick of this. They’re tired of the inflammatory stuff, they’re tired of the divisiveness, they’re tired of the lies. If Trump gets the nomination, I think we have got a pretty good chance of turning over some more states than we did the last time.” 

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) told The New York Times recently that even though he thought a Trump candidacy would be “an absolute horror show” for the health of American democracy, it would be “probably a good thing” for those who want Republicans to lose in 2024. 

Democratic strategist Mark Longabaugh told this column that Trump is “infinitely weaker than he was.”  

“You can always get burned by making some of these predictions, but I just think he seems a little bit of a spent force,” Longabaugh said. “There are a whole bunch of dynamics that are very different from 2016.” 

Even some on the right believe the Democrats have a point. 

An editorial from The Wall Street Journal the day before Trump’s campaign launch savaged his chances in 2024, lamenting that after the 2020 election, “the country showed it wants to move on but Mr. Trump refuses — perhaps because he can’t admit to himself that he was a loser.” 

The Journal’s editorial asserted that if Trump did press ahead with his campaign, “Republican voters will have to decide if they want to nominate the man most likely to produce a GOP loss and total power for the progressive left.” 

Democrats and Trump-skeptical Republicans believe that the GOP has other candidates who could either be more persuasive to center-ground voters in a general election — or at least bring less baggage into the race than Trump. 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is just as confrontational as Trump but not dogged by the same degree of indiscipline, nor by legal troubles — and he just won reelection in his usually competitive state by 19 points.    

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) was elected in a Democratic-leaning state in 2021, just a year after Biden had carried it by 10 points over Trump.  

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants and the leading female contender for the GOP in 2024, would offer a much more inclusive face of the party. 

Of course, Democrats — and pundits — have underestimated Trump before, most notably in 2016. 

His candidacy was treated as a self-promotional gambit or a joke in many places. The Huffington Post at one point ostentatiously announced it would move coverage of his bid to the “Entertainment” section of its website. Various Democrats pronounced that Trump had no chance of winning. 

Everyone knows how that turned out. 

Now, however, the argument that Trump is the weakest link has several new threads. 

Firstly, even though the former president retains the fervent support of his base, he is unpopular with the public at large.  

An Economist-YouGov poll conducted from Nov. 13-15 found that Trump was viewed favorably by 77 percent of Republican voters but by only 41 percent of the overall population. Fifty-two percent of all adults had an unfavorable view of him — notably higher than the other potential GOP contenders the poll tested. 

Secondly, the defeat of high-profile Trump-backed candidates in the midterms has strengthened the argument of those who believe the former president is an electoral liability. 

Senate and gubernatorial candidates endorsed by Trump, including Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, Blake Masters and Kari Lake in Arizona and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire all lost. The fate of another prominent endorsee, former football star Herschel Walker, will be decided in Georgia’s December 6 Senate runoff.

Then there is Trump’s relationship to the festering legacy of Jan. 6, 2021, the darkest day in recent American history. Even the Journal’s reliably conservative editorial page acknowledged that “the deadly riot will forever stain his legacy.” 

The Capitol insurrection is just one of the factors contributing to Trump’s sea of legal woes. 

Attorney General Merrick Garland recently appointed a special counsel, Jack Smith, to take over the investigation into events surrounding Jan. 6, as well as the separate probe into sensitive documents found at Mar-a-Lago.  

Either of those investigations could result in a criminal indictment for Trump.  

A probe in Georgia looking into efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn the 2020 result in that state could also be damaging. Meanwhile, New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) is moving forward with a massive civil suit targeting the Trump Organization. 

Put it all together — and add in those voters who have simply grown weary of Trump-fueled chaos — and it’s easy to see why Democrats and some Republicans find it hard to see a path for the former president to win the White House back. 

“I think we would all like Donald Trump to run again,” former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) recently told Gray Television. 

“Trump has significant negatives that makes it very difficult for him to win a majority of the vote,” Republican pollster Glen Bolger told this column. 

For all that, however, Trump remains the leading candidate in polls of the potential GOP 2024 field. 

It looks like the Democrats might get their wish — and then they will find out if they should, again, have been careful what they wished for. 

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage. 

Source: TEST FEED1

White House preps for potential post-midterms staff turnover

The White House is bracing for a potential staffing turnover now that the midterm elections are in the rearview mirror, with some aides expected to depart in early 2023. 

The Biden administration so far has been remarkably stable compared to the Trump administration, with very few high-profile departures in its first two years. But that is likely to change as some officials prepare to move on, and others may be asked to transition to a potential 2024 reelection campaign. 

“We have made no secret of actively leading a diverse and wide effort to look for new talent from businesses, academia, labor and other sectors. And that’s just smart, prudent planning for the future,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Monday when asked if the White House was prepared for possible staff turnover. “But I don’t have any personnel announcements to make at this time.”

Jean-Pierre said Biden is “incredibly confident in his team here and is proud of the historic work that has been done these first two years,” highlighting the passage of an infrastructure law, legislation to fund computer chip manufacturing, a bipartisan gun safety bill and two sweeping Democratic bills passed via reconciliation that included key provisions on health insurance and climate change.

Some Democratic strategists believed there would have been calls for staffing changes at the White House had Democrats been wiped out in the midterms. But that didn’t come to pass, as the party will again hold a narrow Senate majority and a more narrow minority in the House than expected.

Instead, the midterms served as a galvanizing moment for Biden and his team that what they’re doing seems to be working for voters. Any changes to staff are likely to come from those who have been in the White House for two full years on top of any time spent on the 2020 campaign and are ready to move on.

“I just think we’ve reached the two year mark, there’s going to be change,” Jim Kessler, a co-founder of the centrist think tank Third Way, said in a recent interview.

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One area where staff turnover is expected is on Biden’s economic team. Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, will reportedly leave his role in the coming months, and Cecilia Rouse is scheduled to return to Princeton University in the spring after taking leave to serve as chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisers.

Administration officials are hopeful that Biden’s Cabinet will remain intact to avoid any prolonged confirmation battle in a narrowly divided Senate. And administration allies are similarly optimistic that White House chief of staff Ron Klain will remain in the job for the foreseeable future.

“Ron’s ability to do so many things at the same time is something that I just, you rarely run across this,” Anita Dunn, a senior adviser to the president, said at an Axios event in late October.

“There is no better chief of staff,” she added. “My hope is he stays just as long as President Biden does, which means poor Ron is in for another six years.”

Klain, who has at times drawn the ire of some centrist senators amid legislative talks, has earned the backing of progressive Democrats in particular. And Biden himself has reportedly asked Klain to stay on.

That comes in contrast to the Trump administration, where the former president cycled through four chiefs of staff, four press secretaries and several Cabinet secretaries in one term.

In Trump’s first two years in office, 43 officials in the executive office of the president resigned or were promoted and therefore left their original positions, according to data compiled by Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

By comparison, Biden has seen 24 staffers in the executive office of the president depart or get promoted during his first two years in office, according to Tenpas’s tracker.

Trump also had seven Cabinet-level officials resign or be pushed out during his first two years in office. Meanwhile, Biden has yet to see a single Cabinet-level official step down since he took office.

Biden’s other top advisers — including Steve Ricchetti, Mike Donilon and Jen O’Malley Dillon — have also remained in their jobs for the past two years. Kate Bedingfield, who worked on the 2020 campaign and with Biden as vice president, briefly announced plans to depart from her job as communications director over the summer, only to reverse course and stay put.

The president likes to keep a tight inner circle filled with aides that he has known for years. One Democratic strategist who previously worked with Biden said they expected any major staffing changes would likely be in service of a possible reelection bid.

For example, Cedric Richmond left his job as a senior adviser to the president in May to work with the Democratic National Committee. 

Dunn, who herself left the White House in August 2021 only to return as a senior adviser, has already acknowledged that some planning is underway for staffing and strategizing around a 2024 campaign.

“He has said he intends to run,” Dunn said at the Axios event. “We are engaged in some planning, for the simple reason if we weren’t engaged in planning in November of this year, we should be in the political malpractice hall of fame.”

Source: TEST FEED1

US, allies struggle to support protesters in make-or-break moment for Iran

The U.S., its allies and individuals across the globe are struggling to support protesters in Iran in what observers say is a make-or-break moment that could tip the scales for regime change in Tehran.  

President Biden said in early November that “we’re gonna free Iran. They’re gonna free themselves pretty soon.”  

But outside experts say U.S. policy focused on diplomacy with Tehran over its nuclear program, and the disunity within and outside Iran, puts the favor in the hands of the nation’s current government.  

“The problem is not only the foreign policy decisions of the U.S. There’s no united front on the end of the protest movement, there’s no leadership,” said Ceng Sagnic, chief analyst of TAM-C Solutions, a multinational private intelligence company. 

Iran’s leaders have attempted to brutally suppress demonstrators that originally took to the streets protesting the death of Mahsa Amini, after she died in custody of the country’s “morality police.” Amini was detained for allegedly wearing her headscarf incorrectly.  

Since then, protests have grown to include calls for the downfall of the country’s Islamic rulers. 

At least 14,000 people are reported to have been arrested and hundreds are believed to have died in the demonstrations, including dozens of children. The youngest victim is believed to be nine years old.  

“The Iranian government and the regime as a whole has the potential power to suppress the protest movement,” Sagnic said.  

U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley reacted to a recent CNN investigation saying that it documented “unspeakable acts of sexual violence by Iranian officials in detention centers.” 

“It’s a reminder of what is at stake for the Iranian people – and of the lengths to which the regime will go in its futile attempt to silence dissent,” he tweeted. 

The U.S., European Union and United Kingdom have imposed sanctions on individuals and entities they have identified as responsible for the violent crackdown on protesters. They’ve sought to ease restrictions on internet access to aid protesters who have had their service cut off. 

Member-states of the United Nations are looking for ways to condemn and isolate the Islamic Republic, the ruling government of which came to power in 1979 following a revolution. 

Outside Iran, individuals are working to maintain support for the protesters globally.  

The Iranian national soccer team stayed silent when their national anthem played at the World Cup in Qatar, widely viewed as a sign of support for the protesters. Solidarity protests in Berlin, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., last month brought together tens of thousands of the Iranian diaspora and their supporters. 

Shayda Gangi, an Iranian American living in D.C., helped launch an exhibit in Georgetown displaying protest art created over the past two months in an effort to keep attention on the struggle of the people of Iran.  

“All these articles being written, all the people who come to these exhibits, and showcase this work, is so important and it’s doing what it’s supposed to do, which is to raise awareness and keep the spotlight on Iran,” she told The Hill.  

The exhibit, which ran for three days, featured more than 100 pieces from artists all over the world, including Iranians living abroad, Italian and Israeli artists, and at least one artist from inside Iran, who sent her work with great secrecy, quickly deleting communication and even blocking the organizers at one point as a security precaution, Gangi said.  

“I tried to put myself in her shoes and think, ‘would I do the same thing?’” Gangi said. “And I don’t know. She was scared and is in Iran, and it’s dangerous, but even with all of that, she was so happy to contribute to this event, and to do what she could do and to send her artwork to be shown.” 

Sherry Hakimi, an Iranian American activist and founder and executive director of a nonprofit focused on gender equality, was one of five Iranian women invited to meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other top State Department officials in October to offer their advice on how the U.S. could best support protesters.  

“I appreciate that senior U.S. leaders have been listening to the calls made by Iranians and Iranian Americans alike,” she told The Hill, but said governments need to be more innovative in how they think about aiding the protesters.  

“These are unprecedented times – this is the first female-led revolution – so meeting the moment requires unprecedented measures.” 

Hakimi said that on top of sanctions and efforts to hold the Islamic Republic accountable at the United Nations, countries should focus on providing health care assistance because injured protesters risk arrest if they seek care at a hospital.  

“I want to see more health care-focused aid being sent to Iran, whether that’s through the Red Cross, Doctors Without Borders, or some other organization or mechanism. There are parts of Iran where people are no longer able to seek treatment, because the regime has made it impossible — either hospitals won’t treat them or if they do go to a hospital they can risk arrest, which makes things worse,” she said.  

“To me, that seems like one of the most basic things.” 

Human rights groups and news reports have documented accounts from protesters that they are avoiding hospitals for fear of arrest from security forces, and that the Iranian government is using ambulances to infiltrate protests and detain demonstrators.  

The danger for protesters seeking medical help was echoed by Cameron Khansarinia, policy director for the nonprofit and nonpartisan National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI), which also helped sponsor the art exhibit in Georgetown.  

“Protesting in Iran is not like protesting in any other country,” he said, referencing the extreme tactics of targeting protesters, the use of live ammunition, detentions, allegations of torture and killings.  

NUFDI is advocating for the U.S. and other governments to explore setting up a “strike fund” to distribute the Islamic Republic’s frozen assets abroad among protesters who have their livelihoods threatened by the government.  

“So providing, at least, a small modicum of financial support to allow these workers to go on strike and allow their families to have bread at the end of the day … are very tangible means by which a foreign government could empower the Iranian people,” he said, calling for governments to devise a “mechanism” to deliver such cash.   

Khansarinia, like others interviewed for this article, described the protests as unprecedented for their massive scale in the face of extreme violence by security authorities.   

The Norway-based Iran Human Rights organization has documented at least 416 people killed, and that includes 51 children. The rights group is also pointing to the government “systematically and disproportionately” targeting minorities in Iran, in particular in the “Baluch and Kurdish ethnic regions.” 

The tactic is aimed at seeking to delegitimize the protests as an ethnic, separatist movement, private intelligence analyst Sagnic said. 

“By increasing the oppression in the Kurdish areas, violent tactics, striking Kurdish Peshmerga bases in Iraq, trying to make it more an ethnic issue, something that separates Kurdish groups from the rest of Iran, which is a successful tactic, to be honest,” he said.  

Gangi, who helped organize the Georgetown art exhibit, said that she feels this moment is different because of the scale of support from the international community. 

“This is by far, in my personal experience following these things throughout the years, this is the first time I’ve seen this much support from not just the Iranian community and not just within Iran, but the global community,” she said.   

“With what they’re doing within Iran, with the internet shutdowns, and all the violence — what we’re seeing outside is a small percentage of what’s happening there. I would really just ask everyone to continue to do what they’re doing, and keep the light on, on Iran.” 

Source: TEST FEED1

White House battles pandemic fatigue in vaccine push

Public health officials have repeatedly warned that the U.S. will likely face another wave of COVID-19 infections as the weather gets colder and people travel and gather for the holidays. 

But it doesn’t seem to be convincing a checked-out public to get vaccinated. 

New COVID-19 booster shot uptake remained low heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, frustrating Biden administration officials who previously called for the public to get booster shots in time for Halloween. 

White House COVID-19 response coordinator Ashish Jha last month said that everyone 50 and older should get the booster because “it is a difference between life and death.”

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The government has purchased 171 million doses of the updated vaccine. But well into November, federal data shows that just 11 percent of the population older than age 5 has received a dose, including just under 30 percent of people 65 and older.

“The boosters have had dismal uptake from the beginning,” said Rupali Limaye, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health who studies vaccine demand. “I think that at this point, there is so much fatigue.” 

Anthony Fauci, in likely his final White House briefing on Tuesday before he leaves government, implored people to get vaccinated and not get complacent about COVID-19.

“My message, and maybe the final message I give you, please, for your own safety, for that of your family, get your updated COVID-19 shot as soon as you’re eligible to protect yourself, your family and your community,” Fauci said.

“The real danger is in the people who have not been vaccinated. So that’s where we expect, if we’re going to see a problem this winter, it’s going to be among those people,” Fauci said.

Despite the availability of vaccines and treatments, hundreds of people are still dying of COVID-19 every day, and administration officials lamented the misinformation that’s led to skepticism about the effectiveness of the vaccines.

“Here’s what we know: If folks get their updated vaccines, and they get treated, if they have a breakthrough infection, we can prevent essentially every COVID death in America,” Jha said Tuesday. 

Public health experts acknowledged the current pace of vaccinations leaves too many people vulnerable to severe disease. They said the administration could be doing more outreach and messaging with a greater sense of urgency. 

Jen Kates, a senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, said even if the administration had all the resources officials say are needed for an effective outreach campaign, reaching people would still be a struggle.

“I think it still is a little bit of an uphill battle because so many Americans are weary of COVID and sort of have tried to move beyond, unfortunately. Fighting that is a much longer-term challenge,” Kates said.

New COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are down from the most recent summer surge, even as the virus continues to circulate and deaths have plateaued at about 2,200 people every week.

The White House on Tuesday launched a six-week sprint aimed at convincing Americans to get their updated COVID-19 vaccine before the end of the year.

The administration said the campaign will focus on seniors and vulnerable communities hardest hit by the virus.

“The bottom line is we need more Americans vaccinated,” Jha said. “Each of the last two years, we’ve seen substantial increases late December into January, and so going out and getting vaccinated right now is a great way to protect yourself if that pattern holds.” 

Public health experts have been calling for a targeted vaccination campaign for months, and Kates said she hoped the new focus would help nudge lagging vaccination rates.

“The urgency to get particularly vulnerable people boosted is there, it hasn’t gone away, and really focusing on those who are most vulnerable is probably the most important thing right now,” Kates said.

The administration said it will direct its limited remaining resources into a $475 million campaign for community health centers and community-based organizations to increase the pace of vaccinations. 

More than 70,000 locations are offering the updated COVID-19 vaccines, and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is aiming to expand to even more locations.

HHS said it will invest $350 million into community health centers, which they can use for “mobile, drive-up, walk-up, or community-based vaccination events, partnerships with community and faith-based organizations for vaccination activities, raising awareness of the updated shot, and more.”

The administration will also invest $125 million for efforts to get more older Americans and people with disabilities vaccinated, including through accessible vaccination clinics, in-home vaccinations, transportation, outreach and education.

The funding for the new push comes as the White House is calling on Congress to include about $10 billion in supplemental funding for COVID-19 response as part of the must-pass government funding bill.

In his White House appearance, Fauci emphasized the need for people to get the updated shot, even if they’ve previously been vaccinated. The country can get to a point where there’s a minimal background level of infections and very few deaths, he said, but only if people protect themselves.

“We’re gonna get there. We can get there with less suffering if we use the interventions that we have,” Fauci said. “If you want to let nature take its course, we’re ultimately going to get there, but we’re going to lose a lot more people than we need to.”

Source: TEST FEED1

What to know about the pause on student debt relief

The legal challenges facing the Biden administration over its student loan forgiveness program is leaving borrowers in limbo as the White House is now forced to halt administering the program until the Supreme Court rules on the matter.

Spirits among advocates were high when the program was announced in August, when Biden promised $10,000 in federal loan forgiveness for those making less than $125,000 and $20,000 for those making that same amount who received Pell Grants.

While the administration recently notified certain borrowers who are eligible for forgiveness, it also indicated that it cannot execute the program while the Justice Department fights legal challenges in court, leaving borrowers confused over the status of their promised debt relief. The administration has also stopped accepting applications for the program as a result.

Here are five things you need to know about where student loan forgiveness stands.

Court cases hold up program

The Biden administration has faced at least six court challenges since announcing the student debt relief program, but only two so far have seen success in their efforts. 

A Texas-based, Trump-appointed federal judge earlier this month invalidated the program, saying Biden has overstepped his power in the executive branch and that it was up to Congress to make such laws.

“In this country, we are not ruled by an all-powerful executive with a pen and a phone. Instead, we are ruled by a Constitution that provides for three distinct and independent branches of government,” the judge wrote. The administration has asked the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals to halt that ruling until it files an appeal in that case.

A second successful challenge came from six conservative-led states, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina, in the St. Louis-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit back in October. 

The states argued that they were harmed by the freeze in student loan payments. A three-judge panel unanimously decided the program should be paused until further notice from that court or the Supreme Court.

Biden administration fights back

The Biden administration has taken action against both of those cases, most recently asking the Supreme Court to intervene.

“We’re not going to back down though on our fight to give families breathing room,” Biden said on Tuesday when he announced another extension to the pause on federal student loan payments. “That’s why the Department of Justice is asking the Supreme Court of the United States to rule on the case.”

In the Texas case, the Justice Department submitted a legal filing to the New Orleans-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit asking for it to pause the order from that judge.

The department’s filing to the 5th Circuit came only a day before it filed a petition to the Supreme Court, asking the high court to overturn the 8th Circuit’s decision so the Biden administration could administer its debt relief program.

“The [8th Circuit’s] injunction thus frustrates the government’s ability to respond to the harmful economic consequences of a devastating pandemic with the policies it has determined are necessary,” U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar told the justices.

Along with hurting the government’s program, the Justice Department argued the 8th Circuit’s ruling regarding the program leaves “vulnerable borrowers in untenable limbo.” 

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said this week that the administration is confident the program will hold, adding that all options are on the table when asked if the White House is putting contingency plans in place.

“We took it to the highest court of the land, as you know — the Supreme Court — because we wanted to get a clarification on this quickly. And so, we’re confident in that process,” she said on Monday.

Loan payment pause extended to next year

After pressure from activist groups, the Biden administration announced on Tuesday they would be extending the pause of student loan payments into next year. 

The pause, which was set to expire on Dec. 31, was extended up to June 30, with Biden saying the extension allows the Supreme Court time to hear the case in its current term. 

The payment pause will end “no later than June 30, 2023,” Biden said, because payments will resume 60 days after the Education Department is permitted to implement the program or the litigation is resolved, which should come before the end of June, when the Supreme Court term typically concludes.

The announcement comes after the administration fell under pressure from student loan advocacy groups, which argued borrowers should not have to pay monthly student loans bills until the courts reach a decision on the legality of student debt forgiveness.

The pause on student loan payments began at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic under former President Trump to give relief to struggling Americans. It has been extended under the Trump and Biden administrations at least six times.  

With the legal barricades that have popped up against the debt relief program, Biden said he is “never going to apologize for helping working class and middle class families.”

Forgiveness timeline unknown

Despite the payment pause deadline being extended to June, a firmer deadline on any court decisions remains unknown. 

Borrowers could be waiting anywhere from weeks to months before they know if Biden’s program will be executed and any actual debt be forgiven. 

In the meantime, the Biden administration has encouraged borrowers to sign up for updates from the Department of Education regarding the program so borrowers can know when any updates are available.

Robert Moran, a former senior policy adviser in the Education Department under President George W. Bush predicted the legal challenges could be resolved in the next few months.

“I do think the Supreme Court will resolve in February or March, which means folks will start repaying in April or May,” he said.

Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond, predicted that it could take longer.

“Much currently remains unclear,” he said. “The justices could be waiting to weigh in for more than preliminary rulings and district court opinions before the high court seriously considers any appeal … if that happens, it may consume much time before the issue is resolved.”

Education Department is ready to provide relief

More than 23 million people applied for student loan relief before the legal limbo halted the program.

Although the Education Department has had to pull loan forgiveness applications off its website, it still has the information for the millions who moved to apply so far. 

Over the weekend, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona announced borrowers were getting updates on their applications despite the legal fight in which borrowers are being informed about whether their federal student loans would eventually qualify for debt forgiveness. 

“Your application is complete and approved, and we will discharge your approved debt if and when we prevail in court,” an email to an approved borrower says.  

Even if an application is approved, however, no debt relief can be applied to a borrower’s account until the legal challenges that have stopped the program from being administered are ruled upon.

Source: TEST FEED1

Democrats aim to keep spotlight on abortion as focus shifts to 2024

Democrats are seeking to keep abortion access front of mind for voters in upcoming elections after the party successfully used the issue to galvanize its base and peel off independent voters in the 2022 midterm elections. 

Pro-choice advocates and Democrats saw success on the issue in races up and down the ballot following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, warning that elected Republican officials would work to implement a ban at the national and state levels. 

And while the midterms may have come and gone, Democrats are insisting there is much campaigning to do with the issue on the campaign trail over the next two years. 

“Women’s reproductive rights [are] essential to the American people — American women and men,” said Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) on a press call with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee last week. “They rose and they said that in this election and we are here to protect that for them, and we will continue to do that, and I believe it will continue to be an issue until we can codify Roe into law for all Americans.” 

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While many strategists and pundits expressed skepticism that abortion would be a driving issue for voters in the midterms, the issue proved to play a key role in Democrats’ wins. 

Twenty-seven percent of voters said abortion was the issue that mattered the most this year, topped only by inflation at 32 percent, according to exit polling from NBC News. Exit polling from CNN yielded nearly identical results, with 31 percent naming inflation as their top issue and 27 percent saying the same about abortion. 

“If you look at this election in 2022, it’s very clear that abortion and the economy were top of mind for voters and Democrats were winning on the economy,” said Christina Polizzi, communications director at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. “Abortion rights is an economic issue.” 

There were signs that abortion did stand to be a strong issue in the lead-up to the general election, such as the rejection of a restrictive abortion ballot measure in Kansas and the victory of now-Rep. Pat Ryan (D) in a New York special election, where he made the issue a centerpiece of his campaign.

“Voters don’t take lightly to their half-century-year-old rights being ripped away and don’t think that these deeply personal decisions should be controlled by politicians,” said Colin Seeberger, senior adviser for communications at the Center for American Progress. 

“That is the message that in every single state was a winning message,” he added. 

According to a memo released by the House Majority PAC, out of the 211 television ads the Democratic group ran in 2022, 103 hit on economic issues, while 89 mentioned abortion. 

Additionally, the group also wrote in a memo that it conducted an abortion ad test project in August, which found that its best-performing ad “was a contrast that frames the races as ‘a Democrat cares about the economy while the Republican wants to ban abortion’.” 

“In 2022, Republicans refused to take abortion and reproductive freedom as a serious issue, all while pushing for a nationwide abortion ban,” House Majority PAC Communications Director C.J. Warnke said in a statement to The Hill. “Voters responded with a resounding no, rejecting Republican extremists and standing for personal freedom. House Majority PAC knew this was an effective, winning message and will continue to highlight Republican extremism on abortion until access is protected in all 50 states.”

While Democrats are hoping to keep the issue in the spotlight in 2024 federal races, the salience of abortion access as a campaign issue will again be tested in next month’s Georgia Senate runoffs and in next year’s General Assembly races in the purple commonwealth of Virginia. 

Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker has voiced his support for a 15-week national abortion ban. He previously expressed support for a total ban on the procedure without exceptions but has since voiced support for measures restricting abortion that contain exceptions. 

Still, Democrats are hoping to use the issue to hit Walker on the campaign trail. 

“It is more a testament to Herschel Walker’s extremism that he supports a national ban on abortion without exceptions,” Seeberger said. 

But Walker is still getting hefty support from anti-abortion groups, including Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, which has pledged to spend at least $1 million to support Warnock in the runoff. 

“Walker’s support for compassionate limits on abortion aligns with the people of Georgia and the overwhelming majority of Americans, in stark contrast to ‘activist pastor’ Warnock’s radical position of abortion on demand until birth, paid for by taxpayers,” the group’s president, Marjorie Dannenfelser, said in a statement earlier this month. “Our ground team will continue to visit voters at their homes to expose Warnock’s extremism and urge them to elect Walker as their champion in the U.S. Senate.”

Meanwhile, Virginia Democrats are already planning for next year’s 2023 General Assembly elections, with a new political action committee aimed at funding abortion rights candidates. Roe Your Vote Virginia launched one day after Election Day. The group plans to spend $1 million on competitive state Senate and House of Delegates contests. 

“Virginia is one of those rare places where we have elections every year, so it’s always a good bellwether to see what happens in ‘24,” said Gianni Snidle, a spokesperson for Virginia’s Democratic Party. 

And despite Virginia’s next elections taking place in an off-year in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential primaries, Democrats say that Republican efforts to pass abortion restrictions in Virginia will provide enough motivation to get voters to the polls. 

“Our work is already done for us because these Republicans keep introducing these bills,” Snidle said. “The only reason why it stops is because we have a one-seat majority in the Senate.”

Virginia Democrats are also working to keep the issue elevated in the state legislature. On Monday, Virginia’s congressional delegation penned a letter to the legislature’s Privileges and Elections Committee calling on state lawmakers to enshrine abortion rights into Virginia’s constitution. 

“I received a letter from the Virginia US Congressional Democratic Delegation to advance legislation to codify reproductive freedom at the state level,” tweeted state Sen. Lionell Spruill (D). “I do intend to make sure this happens and is voted out of the [Privileges and Elections] Committee I chair.”

This dynamic is also set to play out in state legislative sessions across the country. 

“I suspect that many of these states will be considering their own abortion-related legislation and I think that that will be ripe for drawing attention to Republicans’ extremism on pushing these radical bans,” Seeberger said. “Also at the same, that will be a springboard and catalyst for activists to remain engaged.” 

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump met with white supremacist Nick Fuentes alongside Ye at Mar-a-Lago

Former President Trump had dinner with white nationalist Nick Fuentes this week at his Mar-a-Lago property in Florida, Axios first reported on Friday.

The dinner happened on Tuesday night alongside rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, who had said Trump “basically screaming at me at the table” when he asked the former president to be his running mate in 2024.

Ye alluded to the meal and Fuentes’s presence in a video posted to Twitter on Friday.

“So Trump is really impressed with Nick Fuentes, and Nick Fuentes, unlike so many of the lawyers, and so many of the people that he was left with on his 2020 campaign, he’s actually a loyalist,” Ye said in the video, titled “Mar-a-Lago debrief.”

The Justice Department has called Fuentes a white supremacist, and he is known for his racist and antisemitic rhetoric, including casting doubts on the Holocaust.

Ye, who has faced a wave of pushback for his own antisemitic comments this year, had also run for president in 2020 after visiting Trump in the Oval Office.

“Kanye West very much wanted to visit Mar-a-Lago,” Trump said in a statement to Axios. “Our dinner meeting was intended to be Kanye and me only, but he arrived with a guest whom I had never met and knew nothing about.”

In a second statement posted Friday evening on his Truth Social platform, Trump added he “didn’t know Nick Fuentes.”

“Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, was asking me for advice concerning some of his difficulties, in particular having to do with his business. We also discussed, to a lesser extent, politics, where I told him he should definitely not run for President, ‘any voters you may have should vote for TRUMP.’

“Anyway, we got along great, he expressed no anti-Semitism, & I appreciated all of the nice things he said about me on ‘Tucker Carlson.’ Why wouldn’t I agree to meet?” Trump said.

The Hill has reached out to representatives for Trump and Fuentes for further comment.

Trump last week formally entered the 2024 race for the White House, his third serious presidential bid.

So far, he is the only prominent Republican to enter the race to challenge President Biden, but multiple other GOP officials and members of the Trump administration, including former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have acknowledged they may mount a challenge.

Fuentes, a prominent supporter of Trump’s false claims of a stolen election in 2020, was among the leaders of the “America First” movement subpoenaed by the Jan. 6 House committee.

He was on the Capitol grounds on Jan. 6, 2021, but has not been accused of entering the building during the riot. The day after insurrection, he reportedly wrote on Twitter, “The Capitol Siege was f—ing awesome and I’m not going to pretend it wasn’t.”

Far-right GOP Reps. Paul Gosar (Ariz.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) both took criticism from their own party after speaking at a March event organized by Fuentes.

The New York Times, which on Friday afternoon confirmed Trump’s dinner with Fuentes, reported that the sit-down was sharply condemned by Jonathan Greenblatt, the head of the Anti-Defamation League, who said the idea that Trump “or any serious contender for higher office would meet with him and validate him by sharing a meal and spending time is appalling. And really, you can’t say that you oppose hate and break bread with haters. It’s that simple.”

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), a former Trump ally who is also said to be weighing a White House bid, told the Times that “This is just another example of an awful lack of judgment from Donald Trump, which, combined with his past poor judgments, make him an untenable general election candidate for the Republican Party in 2024.”

—Updated at 6:04 p.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

Five crucial questions as Russia-Ukraine war enters winter

As winter sets in across Ukraine, Russia’s aerial assaults on the country show no sign of letting up.

Even as Kremlin forces pound Ukraine’s cities and key infrastructure, Kyiv’s military has proven resilient, pushing Russian troops out of occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine. 

Further shoring up Ukraine’s military is a steady flow of U.S. and European military and humanitarian support, including another $400 million lethal aid package the U.S. government announced Wednesday filled with critically needed air defense ammunition.  

The Western weapons have helped keep Russia on its back foot and blunted its missile barrage, but with Moscow looking to weaponize winter by knocking out Ukraine’s energy system, the world is closely watching how the season will affect the fight.  

Here are five crucial questions as the Russia-Ukraine war enters winter.  

How much will winter play a role in the fight? 

As fighting drags into its 10th month, the conflict is expected to taper incrementally as winter settles over Ukraine and cold conditions worsen. 

Though Ukraine has been successful in its counteroffensive launched in September to liberate occupied lands, Russia currently remains in control of roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory. That includes much of the eastern part of Ukraine, such as the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces and Crimea. 

Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said last week that “sloppy weather in Ukraine” has already slightly slowed the battle, with muddy conditions making it hard for either side to execute a major offensive.

“I think that that challenge is going to get worse in the coming weeks, so we’ll have to see whether the fighting slows down as a consequence of that,” he told reporters.  

In preparation for the harsh winter, the U.S. has sought to provide the country with cold weather gear, including tens of thousands of parkas, fleece hats, boots and gloves, in addition to generators and tents, according to the Pentagon. 

How much will Ukrainians suffer in the cold?

Ukraine is fielding a relentless Russian aerial bombardment on major population centers and energy infrastructure across the country.

Moscow’s barrage of missile and drone strikes, which have picked up since October, also employs Iranian-provided kamikaze drones to target major cities and cause maximum damage. 

On Nov. 14 alone, Russia launched an estimated 60 to 100 missiles at numerous Ukrainian cities. 

Among the attacks was one on Ukraine’s power grid last week that caused “colossal” damage, with no thermal or hydroelectric power plant in the country now intact, according to the head of Ukrenergo, the government-owned electricity transmission system operator.  

The results have been catastrophic, with Ukraine’s energy ministry on Wednesday noting that the Kremlin attacks have caused the “vast majority of electricity consumers” to lose power. 

Though Ukraine has scheduled blackouts to conserve energy, its civilians are expected to suffer heavily during winter, with 2 million to 3 million individuals likely to be displaced in the coming months as the weather grows colder, according to Hans Henri P. Kluge, the World Health Organization’s regional director for Europe.

And Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last week that with the onset of winter, “families will be without power, and more importantly, without heat,” which is expected to cause “incalculable human suffering.” 

“Basic human survival and subsistence is going to be severely impacted, and human suffering for the Ukrainian population is going to increase,” he told reporters. “These strikes will undoubtedly hinder Ukraine’s ability to care for the sick and the elderly. Their hospitals will be partially operational. The elderly are going to be exposed to the elements.”  

Can Russia take territory in the east?  

Russia has been pounding the eastern cities of Avdiivka and Bakhmut for weeks, creating conditions that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has described as “just hell.” 

And it’s only getting worse. The shelling in the eastern Donetsk region has escalated this week, and war observers say Russia could send more troops and weapons to the east after retreating from Kherson in the south.  

“The enemy does not stop shelling the positions of our troops and settlements near the contact line,” the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said on Tuesday. 

“They continue firing at the critical infrastructure and civilian housing. … In the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions the enemy is focusing its efforts on conducting offensive actions.” 

Ukraine, however, has managed to hold on so far.  

Last month, reports spread among war watchers that Wagner paramilitary forces — which are leading Russia’s efforts in Donetsk — had been given a deadline to take Bakhmut by the end of October, with Putin desperate for a win to offset mounting losses elsewhere.  

If Ukraine loses Bakhmut, it could allow Russia to advance to other key cities in Donetsk, which is among the regions annexed by Moscow in late September.  

Russia has plenty of reinforcements to draw on, between more than 20,000 troops who were previously in Kherson, to the nearly 200,000 reservists reportedly being mobilized to join the war in the months ahead.  

Yet even Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Russian oligarch and war hawk who founded the Wagner Group, has recognized that Ukraine’s military is making progress slow.   

“Our units are constantly meeting with the most fierce enemy resistance, and I note that the enemy is well prepared, motivated, and works confidently and harmoniously,” Prigozhin said in a statement released last month. “This does not prevent our fighters from moving forward, but I cannot comment on how long it will take.” 

Will Russia’s mobilization start to make a difference? 

It’s been more than two months since Putin took the dramatic step of mobilizing military reservists, potentially adding some 300,000 troops to his war effort in Ukraine.  

The move had an immediate impact in Russia, bringing the war closer to home for thousands of families whose sons and fathers were called up to join the “special military operation.”  

But it was expected to take months before the reservists could be trained, equipped and sent off to battle. Even then, wide skepticism remains about what impact, if any, the reservists might have against well-trained and determined Ukrainian military units.  

The Institute for the Study of War has reported that — despite Russian mobilized personnel continuing to protest and desert — the first groups of the new forces have been trained and are being deployed in the annexed Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the east.  

“Russian forces will likely continue to use mobilized and redeployed servicemen to reignite offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and maintain defensive positions in Luhansk Oblast,” the institute wrote earlier this month.  

The Kremlin is also reportedly preparing a “second wave” of mobilization to begin in December and January, meant to bolster Russia’s forces next spring and summer.  

Whether those larger numbers can overcome the morale and logistics challenges that have plagued Moscow’s forces thus far remains to be seen. 

Could the two sides talk? 

As fighting rages in Ukraine, the United State and other Western backers are grappling with how hard to push Kyiv to move toward peace negotiations with Moscow. 

Earlier this month, Milley said that there may be a window for negotiations to end the war, as Russian forces are “really hurting bad” after nine months of conflict, during which they have failed at “every single” objective. 

“You want to negotiate at a time when you’re at your strength and your opponent is at weakness,” Milley told reporters last week. “It’s possible, maybe, that there’ll be a political solution. All I’m saying is there’s a possibility for it. That’s all I’m saying.”  

But Milley also highlighted the realities of the battle ahead with winter so close. 

The probability of a Ukrainian military victory, in which the Ukrainians push all Russian forces from the country, including Crimea, “is not high,” he predicted.  

Those comments came one week after Milley appeared to push for negotiations at an event in New York, telling attendees that both sides should accept that military victory is impossible and a negotiated end to the war necessary.

“When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” Milley said. 

The White House, however, has stressed that Washington is not trying to coerce Kyiv to hold talks with Moscow or give up any territory. 

Zelensky “gets to determine if and when he’s ready for negotiations and what those negotiations look like,” national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters last week.  

“Nobody from the United States is pushing, prodding or nudging him to the table,” he added. 

Also driving speculation about possible upcoming talks is Zelensky earlier this month dropping demands that Putin be out of power before any negotiations are agreed to.

Source: TEST FEED1

DeSantis faces hurdles despite 2024 momentum

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is gaining steam on former President Trump in a would-be match-up for the Republican presidential nomination. 

But even Republicans who want DeSantis to topple a Trump run have privately expressed some doubts about a potential run during the primary and — if he makes it — in the general election. 

Here are some of the challenges DeSantis could face in a 2024 bid:

He’s not warm and fuzzy 

Anyone who has followed DeSantis in recent years knows he doesn’t mince words. In fact, he’s intentionally over the top. There was the time he called outgoing chief medical adviser to the president Anthony Fauci a “little elf” and said someone “should chuck him across the Potomac.” And there was another time he berated a group of high school students for wearing masks at the height of the pandemic.

“You do not have to wear those masks. I mean, please take them off. Honestly, it’s not doing anything,” DeSantis said at a school event in Tampa, Fla. “We’ve got to stop with this COVID theater. So if you wanna wear it, fine, but this is ridiculous.”

Political observers say this sort of sharp-edged banter could hurt the governor in a primary contest, especially in early states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, where voters want to see the more personal side of a candidate. For that very reason, it could be an uphill climb for DeSantis, said Martin Sweet, a professor of political science at Purdue University. 

“They really want those up-close, multiple-times visits,” Sweet said. “Lots of people want to look under the hood and kick the tires. Can he do that low-level persuasion?” 

“DeSantis emotes a lot less than other prospective candidates and might have some trouble,” he added. 

His retail politicking needs improvement

DeSantis won reelection in Florida overwhelmingly this month in part because he’s proved to residents there that he can get the work done. 

When parts of the only bridge from Fort Myers Beach to Sanibel Island were damaged as a result of Hurricane Ian earlier this year, DeSantis had it temporarily rebuilt in record time. But even Republican allies say the governor needs to work on his retail politicking — from campaign rallies to more personal interactions with voters — if he wants to make the leap from gubernatorial candidate to presidential candidate.  

To date, DeSantis has largely appeared on the stump in one mode. “He’s ‘angry guy at the podium‘ all the time,” one Republican supporter said. “It’s always ‘own the libs.‘” 

That may work in a primary, supporters said, but when it comes to a general election, DeSantis might be forced to try a different, more fine-tuned approach. 

He’s never competed on the national stage

With his growing political profile, it’s easy to forget that DeSantis is still a relative newcomer on the national scene. And while he’s hit the campaign trail for Republican candidates in states such as Arizona, Nevada and Ohio, he’s never had to stump for himself outside Florida.

That makes DeSantis something of a wild card when it comes to a presidential campaign. 

“DeSantis has never run nationally before,” Keith Naughton, a veteran Republican strategist, said. “He’s going to do some dumb things at some point.” 

For one, speaking to voters in a state such as Iowa can be remarkably different than rallying supporters in Florida. And then there’s the challenge of building out a national political operation — a task that can be daunting for even the most experienced candidates, but especially for someone who has a notably small inner circle.

Of course, DeSantis is neither the first nor the only candidate who has overcome such a challenge. Prior to launching his bid for the 2016 Republican presidential nod, Trump had never run a serious campaign before. 

“From the polling we’ve seen in Florida, where people know him and recognize him, it tells me that when DeSantis actually starts introducing himself to voters elsewhere, he’s got a lot of room to grow,” Naughton said.

Too hard right

DeSantis’s allies have billed him as a new voice in Republican politics capable of lifting the party out of a rut following lackluster showings in the last three elections.

But he’s taken many of the same hard-right positions as GOP leaders such as Trump, making him a prime target for the same attacks that Democrats have successfully deployed against other conservatives in recent years.

Earlier this year, for instance, he stirred controversy when his administration paid to fly dozens of migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard, the elite Massachusetts resort town, to protest the Biden administration’s approach to border security.

He’s also positioned himself as a key player in the culture wars over his four years in the Florida governor’s mansion. He signed into law a ban on most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy and approved a bill forbidding instruction on gender identity and sexual orientation from kindergarten through third grade. 

And while that has endeared him to many conservatives, some Republicans say his record could become a liability when it comes to winning the support of the broader electorate.

“If you actually look at what he’s done and what he’s saying, his positions aren’t all that different from Donald Trump’s,” one Republican strategist who’s worked in Florida politics said. “So I think if we’re going to have a conversation about Trump’s electability, his appeal to the electorate as a whole, there’s gotta be a similar conversation about DeSantis.”

“Personality-wise, I think he comes off as more in control, more restrained. But again, there’s not a lot of daylight between him and Trump when it comes to the issues.”

Timing 

DeSantis is having a moment right now like no other. Some Republicans who don’t want to see Trump win the nomination see the governor as the one who can save them from that reality. They see him as someone who shares Trump’s politics but isn’t Trump. 

But at the same time, some say, the timing for DeSantis may be all wrong. Why should he have to compete against Trump when the road to the nomination could be free and clear in 2028?

“He has everything to lose and nothing to gain,” Sweet said. “Why piss off the Trump base right now?”

But most importantly, Sweet added, “Iowa and New Hampshire are not simply about winning but instead beating expectations.” He pointed to former President Clinton taking second in 1992 and being dubbed “the comeback kid.” 

“Expectations now are sky high for DeSantis, and if he falls short, that could doom what is otherwise an exceptionally promising future,” he said. 

For now, DeSantis has yet to make a final decision on a 2024 run, according to multiple Republican sources. He won’t be sworn in to his second term in the governor’s mansion until January, and he’s likely to wait until after the Florida Legislature’s 2023 session, which runs from March until early May, to make an official call. 

“I think if he does do it, he wants to go into it with some big wins from session,” one Florida Republican said. “And even then, I think there’s still going to be the question of whether this is the right time.”

Source: TEST FEED1