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Trump 2024 bid won't deter DOJ amid criminal probes

What does Donald Trump’s announcement that he plans to seek the White House in 2024 mean for the numerous criminal probes into the former president?

Not a whole lot.

“The Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into Donald Trump even though he was the former president, a likely candidate, and the de facto leader of the Republican Party,” Renato Mariotti, a former federal prosecutor, wrote on Twitter.

“His announcement today changes nothing. It was already ‘baked in’ to DOJ’s decision.”

Trump faces an ongoing investigation into his attempts to stay in power after losing in 2020, a sprawling effort spanning numerous states and federal agencies that culminated with the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol.

And in Georgia, Trump faces a similar criminal probe into his 2020 efforts, one where courts have already stepped in to force participation by Trump allies subpoenaed by the district attorney there, a group that includes Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Trump’s former chief of staff Mark Meadows.

And the Justice Department has already executed a search warrant at Trump’s home, indicating he may have violated the Espionage Act and illegally retained government documents after he transported more than 10,000 government records, including classified information, to Mar-a-Lago.

In Trump’s announcement, some see a faulty attempt to avoid a potential indictment.

“A big reason Trump announced his run is he fears criminal prosecution. He’s a desperate man, a threatened and rabid animal, who could face multiple indictments (the stolen classified documents, Georgia) over the next year,” George Conway, husband to former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway, wrote in a Tuesday night op-ed in The Washington Post that landed amid Trump’s announcement.

“He thinks running for president, and the specter of violence from his fringiest supporters, will protect him from the prosecutors,” Conway added.

“So just imagine what Trump would do to stay out of jail.”

The Justice Department typically adheres to an unwritten rule to avoid any prosecution that could influence the results of an election in the 60 days prior to that contest.

But DOJ is still well ahead of that 2024 deadline, something Trump’s early announcement doesn’t change.

And there’s nothing about running for office or even being a former president that immunizes him.

“The fact that somebody is prominent, does not mean that they don’t get prosecuted,” Andrew Weissmann, one of the lead prosecutors on the Mueller investigation into Trump, told Joy Reid during an appearance on MSNBC.

“It is not a mitigating factor, as I said, I think that is an aggravating factor. And if he runs for office, he runs for office. But he’s still a civilian like the rest of us, as you said, and the rule of law means that we are all treated equally. And I really am confident that [Attorney General] Merrick Garland is going to do that.”

Garland seemed to nod to that dynamic when he held a press conference to address the execution of a warrant at Trump’s Florida home.

“Upholding the rule of law means applying the law evenly without fear or favor,” he said in August.

Bringing charges against a former president would of course still be an unprecedented decision for the Justice Department, which faces hurdles in its own cases and would likely want to get a prosecution underway well ahead of the 2024 election cycle.

Some legal experts have suggested that DOJ could struggle to score a conviction against Trump on the Jan. 6 front, at least when it comes to his role in directing the mob that descended on the Capitol.

And while the Mar-a-Lago case could be more promising, DOJ is locked in a battle to overturn the appointment of a special master, a decision that has delayed its ability to review more than 10,000 government records Trump has argued he has the right to retain.

Though not classified, they could still help build DOJ’s case, particularly if they illuminate how Trump handled the records, some of which were found in his home office among his personal effects.

Legal advisers have also warned against DOJ appointing a special counsel to oversee the investigations, arguing the move would do little to head off complaints of politicization while delaying any prosecution.

Trump made clear in his campaign kickoff speech he would continue to rail against the justice system, saying “I am a victim” and listing the FBI among the “gravest threats to our civilization.”

“Nothing is greater than the weaponization from the system, the FBI or the DOJ. We must conduct a top to bottom overhaul to clean out the festering rods and corruption of Washington, D.C.,” he said.

“The journey ahead of us will not be easy,” Trump added. “Anyone who truly seeks to take on this rigged and corrupt system will be faced with a storm of fire that only a few could understand.”

Trump’s announcement came after weeks of forecasting and hinting, with the former president suggesting he would likely run essentially since leaving office.

It’s a dynamic that has likely been considered by the Justice Department since Day 1.

Elliot Williams, who previously served as deputy assistant attorney general for legislative affairs at DOJ under the Obama administration, said, “Whether he announced his candidacy to avoid getting charged or not I don’t think that changes the calculus for the Justice Department or should.”

“Had the Justice Department charged Donald Trump with a crime yesterday, what would have been any different with charging him today?” Williams said in an appearance on CNN. 

“What is different today than yesterday, based on his announcing as a candidate? There are still the same political questions just with respect to him being a former president, regardless of whether he announced his candidacy. The question is…are the facts and law there to indict this individual? And it appears that in some of the instances it looks like there might be.”

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The Hill's Morning Report — It's official: Trump is in for 2024

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It’s official: Trump is in for 2024

As the GOP faces internal turmoil over disappointing midterms showing, former President Trump has added a new variable to the calculus: his own 2024 bid. 

Trump on Tuesday announced his candidacy from his Florida residence, just a week after Election Day. Of other Republican midterm failures, Trump claimed that Americans had “not yet realized the full extent and gravity of the pain our nation is going through.”

“We always have known that this was not the end. It was only the beginning of our fight to rescue the American dream,” Trump said. “In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States.”

The announcement comes as the GOP is starting to distance itself from the former president after the midterms. Many of the candidates Trump endorsed this cycle had disappointing showings in their races, and party leaders are left wondering whether the best bet for the GOP’s future is to leave Trump in the past (The Hill and The New York Times). 

▪ The Hill: 65 percent in new poll say Trump should not run again.

▪ The Washington Post: Trump campaign operation takes shape ahead of expected 2024 announcement.

▪ Politico: Four ex-presidents who ran again — and what they mean for Trump.

House Republicans nominated Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) to be Speaker in a closed-door meeting on Tuesday as the conference sits on the cusp of securing the majority in the lower chamber. He had faced a last-minute protest challenge from Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), a former chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus. 

McCarthy won easily, 188 to 31, in the internal conference meeting, writes The Hill’s Emily Brooks. But in the eyes of Biggs and his supporters, the goal was merely to demonstrate that McCarthy lacks the support to seize the gavel when the full House meets to choose the Speaker early next year, when he’ll need to secure a majority of the chamber’s vote.

“The promised red wave turned into a loss of the United States Senate, a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives, and upset losses of premiere political candidates,” Biggs said in a Tuesday statement (Roll Call).

In the same meeting, House Republicans elected Rep. Tom Emmer (Minn.) to be House majority whip and gave Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) another term as conference chairwoman (The Hill). They separately voted to elect Rep. Steve Scalise (La.) as majority leader by voice vote. Scalise had been serving as minority whip (The Hill).

Across the aisle, Democrats are on the cusp of losing the House, meaning eyes are on Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) next move, and the party is frozen in place until she decides what to do. Pelosi, who is the first woman to hold the Speakership, said in 2018 that she’d limit herself to four more years in the role. 

A new option for her future has emerged in recent days: stepping down from her post but remaining in Congress, in a quasi-emeritus role (The New York Times).

Senate Republicans, meanwhile, vented their frustrations over what went wrong in the 2022 election at a Tuesday conference lunch ahead of their own leadership elections, scheduled for Wednesday, writes The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. The closed-door meeting revealed the bitter feelings left over from crushingly disappointing midterm elections. 

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who have been at odds for months, traded recriminations over who was to blame for the GOP’s failure to win back the Senate.

“I’ve never seen Scott so fired up. It was a very impassioned, very direct confrontation with McConnell that McConnell did not expect,” a person who witnessed the tense back-and-forth between senators told The Hill. “It started off tense and it got very acrimonious.” 

The conference is set to hold leadership elections on Wednesday, when McConnell will run to remain minority leader. McConnnel was initially expected to run unopposed, but Scott unexpectedly announced a challenge during Tuesday’s lunch, catching many Senate Republicans by surprise. The Senate GOP campaign chief mounted his opposition, expected to fall short, as he told reporters that he is “not satisfied with the status quo,” (Politico).

▪ New York Magazine: The McConnell vs. Scott spat is heating up.

▪ The Hill: A Super PAC with ties to McConnell pledges over $14 million in Georgia Senate runoff amid tensions with Scott.

Kari Lake and her supporters are seizing on claims of a rigged election after her loss to Democrat Katie Hobbs in the Arizona governor’s race, complicating GOP efforts to move past such claims after disappointing midterms for the party, writes The Hill’s Julia Manchester. Republicans are increasingly seeing the years-long cries of a rigged election in 2020 as hurting their party, especially after the GOP failed to win back the Senate and appears likely to win back the House by a slim margin. But false claims about fraud also appear to have taken over the party, with Trump backing Lake’s claims while repeating his own about 2020. 

Several of the most high-profile election deniers lost their election battles in this year’s midterms — Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, Tudor Dixon in Michigan and, most recently, Lake in Arizona. The Hill’s Niall Stanage asks if their losses paint a clear signal that running on this kind of platform is a vote-loser, or are there other issues at play?

The New York Times: Republicans’ 2022 lesson: Voters who trust elections are more likely to vote.

Related Articles

▪ The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Think tank: Trump in legal peril in Fulton, Ga. as he preps White House bid.

▪ CNN: Former Trump Organization CFO testifies he didn’t pay taxes on $1.76 million in personal expenses.

▪ Time: How running for president impacts Trump’s various legal challenges.

▪ Roll Call: Senate Democrats plan spree of judicial confirmations in lame duck.

▪ Politico: “The weirdest election I’ve ever been a part of”: How the GOP almost blew the House.

 LEADING THE DAY

➤ CONGRESS

The Senate is set to enshrine same-sex marriage into federal law on Wednesday, a historic moment that elected leaders across the political spectrum say is a milestone for the Congress and the country, write The Hill’s Brooke Migdon and Al Weaver. Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) has scheduled vote on a bill to codify the right to same-sex and interracial marriage after a group of senators announced a deal on changes to the legislation.

Democrats warned that same-sex marriage and other rights could be at risk since June, when the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to an abortion under Roe v. Wade. The House passed the Respect for Marriage Act in July, but the Senate delayed its vote on the bill until after the midterm elections (The Washington Post and CNN).

The bipartisan group leading the bill, which includes Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), released a statement on Monday calling the Respect for Marriage Act a “needed step to provide millions of loving couples in same-sex and interracial marriages the certainty that they will continue to enjoy the freedoms, rights, and responsibilities afforded to all other marriages.”

“Through bipartisan collaboration, we’ve crafted commonsense language to confirm that this legislation fully respects and protects Americans’ religious liberties and diverse beliefs, while leaving intact the core mission of the legislation to protect marriage equality,” the statement reads.

The New York Times: Schumer urges Republicans to jettison Trump and work with Democrats.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is taking another shot at permitting reform with Congress in the lame-duck session, writes The Hill’s Rachel Frazin, but his plan hinges on talks with Republicans, who may not want to hand him a win.

WV MetroNews: Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) announces bid for Senate, revving up race to take on Manchin.

➤ INTERNATIONAL   

Two people died in an explosion in a Polish village near the border with Ukraine on Tuesday, according to firefighters. The explosion occurred after Russia attacked cities across Ukraine with missiles on Tuesday in what Kyiv said was the heaviest wave of missile strikes since Moscow first invaded in February. Some attacks were reported in the western city of Lviv, which is less than 50 miles from the Polish border (The Washington Post and CNN).

World leaders discussed the situation at an emergency meeting on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G-20) summit in Bali, Indonesia, on Wednesday. The circumstances surrounding the incident, which marks the first time a NATO country has been directly hit during the almost nine-month conflict, remain unclear. It is not known who fired the missile, or precisely where it was fired from, though the Polish Foreign Ministry has described it as “Russian-made.” President Biden told reporters early indications suggested the missile was not fired from Russia, which has denied responsibility (CNN).

“We agreed to support Poland’s investigation into the explosion … And I’m going to make sure we figure out exactly what happened,” Biden said reporters at the summit. “Then we’re going to collectively determine our next step as we investigate and proceed. There was total unanimity among the folks at the table.”

Early media reports this morning from unnamed U.S. officials said that preliminary assessments suggest “the missile that struck Poland had been fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile,” according to The Associated Press. Reuters reported that Biden told allies the missile was a Ukrainian air defense missile, according to an unnamed NATO source. 

The Hill: Following missile strikes in NATO member Poland, here’s an explainer of Article 5 of the NATO treaty.

The heavy missile strikes followed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech on Tuesday to G-20 leaders. Speaking via video link just days after Ukraine liberated the strategic city of Kherson from invading Russian forces, Zelensky compared the victory to the D-Day landing of allied troops in Normandy, a key turning point of World War II (Politico Europe).

“For Ukraine, this liberation operation of our defense forces is reminiscent of many battles of the past, which became turning points in the wars of the past,” Zelensky said in his speech to world leaders. “It is like, for example, D-Day — the landing of the allies in Normandy.”

CNN: US intelligence suggests Russia put off announcing Kherson retreat until after midterm elections.

Leaders of most of the world’s economic powers are nearing approval of a declaration strongly denouncing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Even China, which has mostly declined to censure Russia until now, and India, which purchases weapons from Russia, are providing encouraging words (The Hill).

There are now 8 billion people on Earth, according to a new United Nations report — just 12 years after the global population passed 7 billion, and less than a century after the planet supported just 2 billion people (Nature).

▪ Reuters: Developing countries and China seek a “loss and damage” fund in a COP27 draft proposal.

▪ The New York Times: As Britain braces for painful budget cuts, the mood is gloomy.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ ADMINISTRATION

Biden on Tuesday met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the margins of the G-20 summit. Biden made clear that the U.S. stands with Turkey, a NATO ally, following a bombing in Istanbul on Sunday that left at least six people dead. 

Turkey’s interior minister had accused the U.S. of being complicit in the bombing, rejecting a condolence statement from the U.S. Embassy in Turkey (The Hill and Bloomberg News).

Biden also met with new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak for the first time at the G-20, calling the United Kingdom America’s closest ally and closest friend (Reuters and Bloomberg News).

Meanwhile, Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who met earlier during the conference, are offering allies dual visions of how to solve global issues, from poverty to the war in Ukraine. The rivalry can sometimes be beneficial to middle powers by generating competition for providing aid and support but also leave other countries fearful of being caught between the two major players (The New York Times).

“This grouping is not interested in choosing sides,” Courtney Fung, an associate fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, told the Times, referring to Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia. “They would rather that these two states figure it out so that they don’t get crushed in the middle.”

▪ Reuters: Wrangling over Ukraine war dominates summit of G-20 major economies.

▪ CNN: China’s Xi starts first day at G-20 with a whirlwind of meetings with US allies.

▪ The Guardian:  Russia strives to avoid G-20 isolation as China and India distance themselves.

Vice President Harris will visit the Philippine islands of Palawan on the edge of the disputed South China Sea, Reuters reports. The visit, scheduled for Tuesday, will make Harris the highest-ranking American official to visit the island chain, which lies adjacent to the Spratly Islands. China has built harbors and airstrips on the Spratlys, parts of which are also claimed by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.

Danny Werfel, Biden’s nominee for IRS chief — a former acting IRS commissioner currently in the private sector — is taking over the tax collection agency as it gets an $80 billion funding boost over the next 10 years to collect $428 billion in unpaid taxes, writes The Hill’s Tobias Burns. Tax experts say the biggest chunk of that money is in business income for individuals.

The White House is urging Congress to provide nearly $48 billion in emergency cash this fall for Ukraine and to battle COVID-19 and other infectious diseases.

In a Tuesday letter to congressional leaders, the administration outlined a nearly $38 billion request to help Ukraine continue fending off Russian attacks. The White House is also asking for $10 billion in emergency health funding, more than $9 billion of which would go toward COVID-19 vaccine access, next-generation COVID-19 vaccines and long COVID research (Politico).

OPINION

■ Donald Trump’s presidential rerun: Will the GOP nominate the man Democrats know they can beat? by The Wall Street Journal editorial board. https://on.wsj.com/3hLRK8d  

■ How the pandemic ended America’s bad romance with work, by Helaine Olen, columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3Ezj2Yt 

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 The Hill: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.

The House meets at 10 a.m. ​​

The Senate meets at 1:45 p.m. and will resume consideration of the Respect for Marriage Act. A cloture vote on the motion to proceed is expected at 3:15 p.m.

The president is in Bali as the G-20 summit concludes and he participates in a mangrove tree planting. Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will meet before the president departs Bali and begins a long flight back to Washington through Guam and Hawaii for refueling.

First lady Jill Biden will deliver remarks at the College Promise Careers Institute in Washington, D.C., at 1:15 p.m. ET. At 2 p.m., ET, she will attend and deliver remarks at the Smithsonian’s Hirshhorn Sculpture Garden groundbreaking.

Secretary Blinken is with the president at the G20 summit in Bali.

🆉 White House Director of Digital Strategy Rob Flaherty will join author Kahlil Greene, Harvard pollster John Della Volpe and Zfluence founder Ava McDonald to discuss outlooks among America’s youth and their impact on the future during Wednesday’s “Gen Z: Writing Their Own Rules” newsmaker event in Washington, live and remote beginning at 5 p.m. ET.RSVP HERE.

ELSEWHERE

➤ TECH & JOBS

Major tech companies are bleeding jobs as high interest rates and a slowing economy are turning against the sector, writes The Hill’s Sylvan Lane. Amazon, Meta, Twitter, Stripe and other Silicon Valley powerhouses that grew rapidly during the pandemic have announced thousands of layoffs in recent days. While experts say the tech sector was bound to come back down to Earth after a torrid decade of growth, it may also be the start of a broader downturn.

▪ Business Insider: If you want to land a job or get a raise in the tech industry, you have to pass a test — and pretty much everyone is cheating on the exams.

▪ NPR: It’s the end of the boom times in tech, as layoffs keep mounting.

▪ Protocol: Is this the end of the cushy Big Tech job?

Elon Musk’s short-lived rollout of a process allowing users to pay for blue verification check marks wreaked havoc on Twitter, especially for journalists, celebrities and other newsmakers on the site, write The Hill’s Dominick Mastrangelo and Rebecca Klar. With Musk indicating the process to let users pay to be verified is likely to return soon, it’s leading journalists and media companies to pause as they consider how to maintain credibility, verify information put out on Twitter and connect with audiences on a platform that appears to be changing by the day. The change is part of Musk’s larger vision after closing his $44 billion deal to buy Twitter to create a platform where information is allowed to flow more freely, and top accounts from media companies, entertainment personalities and other top influencers face “increased competition from citizens” on the site.

The New York Times: Elon Musk fires Twitter employees who criticized him.

A new five-year study released by Burning Glass Institute looked at the histories of more than 3 million workers at America’s largest companies and found considerable mobility among those who started their careers in nonprofessional positions — such as retail clerks, logistic techs and customer service representatives. The findings show there’s more opportunity for upward career mobility than commonly thought (Forbes).

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

Higher COVID-19 vaccination rates among children could prevent thousands of pediatric hospitalizations and millions of missed school days, an analysis published Tuesday by the Commonwealth Fund and the Yale School of Public Health found.

According to the study, if school-aged children received the updated COVID-19 booster shot at the same rate they were vaccinated against the flu last year — between 50 and 60 percent coverage — it could avert at least 38,000 pediatric hospitalizations, including about 9,000 intensive care unit stays, through March. And if 80 percent of school aged-children received the booster vaccines by the end of the year, it could avert more than 50,000 hospitalizations (CNN).

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

▪ The New York Times: As the pandemic drags on, Americans struggle for new balance.

▪ Wednesday: When should you test for COVID-19 before holiday gatherings?

Walmart on Tuesday agreed to a $3.1 billion settlement to resolve allegations that the company failed to regulate opioid prescriptions contributing to the nationwide opioid crisis (CNN).

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,075,112. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,344 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

THE CLOSER

And finally … 🚀 Liftoff! After multiple delays due to technical issues and hurricanes, NASA finally launched its 322-foot Space Launch System from Cape Canaveral, Fla. at 1:47 a.m., sending the unmanned spacecraft Orion on a 26-day journey to the moon and back.

The space agency had been struggling to get the multibillion-dollar Artemis I rocket off the ground to send a capsule — without a crew on board — around the moon and back, allowing managers to perform critical tests of its systems. The launch marks a key milestone for NASA’s Artemis program, which is setting out to put the first woman and first person of color on the lunar surface. The agency has not launched a space vehicle designed to send astronauts to the moon since 1972 (NPR).

“We are all part of something incredibly special,” Charlie Blackwell-Thompson, the launch director, told her team at the Kennedy Space Center after the launch. “The first launch of Artemis. The first step in returning our country to the moon and on to Mars.”

The next Artemis mission, which is set to take four astronauts on a journey around the moon but onto its surface, is estimated to launch in 2024. Artemis III, in which astronauts will land near the moon’s south pole, is currently scheduled for 2025 (The New York Times).

Watch a replay of the launch HERE.

Stay Engaged

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Some Republicans show appetite for a Manchin deal on permitting reform

A handful of Republican lawmakers appear open to working with Sen. Joe Manchin on his push for permitting reform despite tensions between the West Virginia Democrat and the GOP caucus.  Manchin has been pushing for policies that speed up the approval process for energy projects in order to build out more energy infrastructure. His last attempt ran into opposition from both Republicans — who said it didn’t go far enough — and progressives, who said it could harm communities who live near the projects.

Republicans were also not inclined to help Manchin after many saw him as double-crossing them with his agreement on a deal that led to passage of the sweeping Inflation Reduction Act. The deal was announced after Republicans backed a separate infrastructure bill.  

In recent weeks, Manchin has engaged in talks with Republicans in the hopes of finding a lame-duck agreement on permitting reform.   

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) told The Hill that getting permitting reform done was “really, really, really important” and that he believed there is an appetite for it.  

“Our country needs energy, all kinds of energy: oil, gas, renewables — we need critical minerals,” he said. “All of those things get boxed out by a broken, dysfunctional permitting system that pretty much everybody knows is broken.” 

He said there was “slow but steady progress being made” and that he hoped to close what he described as “loopholes” on time limits in the energy project approval process that he said were a part of Manchin’s initial proposal. 

Asked whether something could come together in the next few weeks, Sullivan said: “Maybe.”  

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who has in the past expressed support for Manchin’s proposal given its inclusion of help for a natural gas pipeline running through their home state, similarly noted the importance of the policies to Republicans.  

“We know that we can’t get energy produced in this country and pipelines built, roads built, even renewable projects done, if we don’t have permitting reform. Every Republican knows that,” Capito said when asked if the caucus wanted to get it done.  

“The devil’s going to be in the details,” she added.  

Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) also said that he and Manchin “agreed to try to work together” on the permitting issue, but appeared skeptical that it would get done in the lame-duck session.  

Instead, he said a reform package could come together next year in a divided Congress split between a Democratic Senate and a GOP House. 

“Obviously we’re focused on other things right now,” said Westerman, the top Republican on the House Natural Resources Committee, when asked about the prospects of getting permitting reform done in the next few weeks.  

Republicans in both chambers have been focused this week on their party’s disappointing results in the midterm elections, which left Democrats retaining their majority in the Senate and the GOP expected to win just a narrow majority in the House.  

The negotiations surrounding permitting reform are especially complex since the bill will need both Republicans and Democrats on board. While a contingent of mostly progressive lawmakers have already said they oppose the push, a rightward shift could alienate an even larger group of necessary votes.  

Manchin has said that he hopes to see the legislation included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a must-pass military funding bill.  

But Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he was “not optimistic” about the permitting bill’s chances of making it into the package.  

“My focus is to get the NDAA done,” he said.  

Westerman also said he opposes adding nondefense riders to the NDAA.  

There are reasons to think Republicans will not want to help Manchin secure a political win now.  

He’s up for reelection in 2024, and his seat in a state that former President Trump won by nearly 40 percentage points in 2020 is seen as a prime pickup opportunity by the GOP.  

On Tuesday, Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) entered the race. He is considered Manchin’s first serious Republican challenger in the contest, though the senator has not officially said whether he will run for reelection.  

Stopping the permitting reform package, even if it contains policies that Republicans like, would also prevent Manchin from having a major policy accomplishment to run on.  

Manchin’s proposal explicitly directs federal agencies to issue approvals for a natural gas pipeline that runs through West Virginia.  

It also seeks to shorten the timeline for environmental reviews of energy projects, gives the federal government more authority to direct construction of electric transmission lines and requires the president to keep a list of priority projects, including both renewable and fossil projects, to be expedited.  

Still, some supporters of Manchin’s effort seemed more optimistic that a deal could be reached soon.  

“My hope is before we leave here, we’ll come up with a bipartisan compromise,” said Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman Tom Carper (D-Del.). “I think they have a good chance to get it done.”

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Trump jumps into 2024 race with GOP at crossroads

President Trump is mounting a comeback bid with the hope that the GOP will once again rally behind him — just as some Republicans worry nominating him for president for a third time is a recipe for failure at the ballot box.

The former president announced the launch of his 2024 presidential campaign from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida Tuesday night, claiming the country had slipped into anarchy under President Biden and arguing he could repeat the policy successes of his first term. 

But he did so at a time when the calls from some party members to move on from Trump are as loud as they’ve been since he left office under the cloud of the Jan. 6, 2021, riots and a second impeachment.

Trump pointed to a strong economy before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, reworked trade deals and a brash approach to international relations that kept the U.S. out of foreign conflicts as a case for another term.

But he ignored the major concerns some in the party have about his viability, steering clear of his pandemic response and his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol and absolving himself of blame for the party’s underwhelming midterm showing.

“The voting will be much different. 2024. Are you getting ready?” Trump said to applause. “I am, too.”

Republicans are sifting through the aftermath of last week’s midterm elections, where expected sweeping victories never materialized. Democrats will hold onto their majority in the Senate, while Republicans appear poised to retake the House with a smaller margin than many hoped.

For some prominent figures in the party, it served as an inflection point. And while many did not name Trump explicitly, their message was clear: The party can choose to move away from making Trump central to everything it does, or it can risk more stinging defeats in 2024.

“We underperformed among independents and moderates, because their impression of many of the people in our party in leadership roles is that they’re involved in chaos, negativity, excessive attacks, and it frightened independent and moderate Republican voters,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, who served alongside Trump for four years, said on SiriusXM that the candidates who fared best in the midterms offered forward-looking solutions to major problems like inflation and crime, while “candidates that were focused on re-litigating the last election I think did not fare as well.”

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) called the 2022 midterms “the funeral for the Republican Party as we know it.”

And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who is viewed as perhaps Trump’s chief rival for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, expressed concern that the party was unable to capitalize on President Biden’s unpopularity with many voters.

“These independent voters aren’t voting for our candidates, even with Biden in the White House and the failures that we’re seeing. That’s a problem,” DeSantis said Tuesday.

Some of the blame for the GOP’s underwhelming midterm performance has fallen on Trump, whose endorsement helped carry candidates through Senate, House and gubernatorial primaries who were defeated in the general election. 

Trump made a point to address the midterm outcome during his speech, and he even acknowledged the party was facing deserved criticism. But the criticism should not be directed at him, Trump said.

Many of Trump’s highest profile and most meaningful endorsements lost in the general election: Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania’s Senate and governor races, respectively; Blake Masters and Kari Lake in Arizona’s Senate and gubernatorial races, respectively; Tudor Dixon in Michigan’s gubernatorial race; Tim Michels in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race; and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire’s Senate race.

Trump instead blamed voters for the poor showing for Republicans, suggesting they did not yet realize how bad the Biden administration’s policies would be for them.

“Citizens of our country have not yet realized the pain our country is going through… they don’t quite feel it yet. But they will very soon,” Trump said. “I have no doubt that by 2024 it will sadly be much worse, and they will see much more clearly what happened.”

The midterm results have left Trump’s influence within the party at perhaps its most precarious point since right after he left the White House, when many Republicans appeared ready to distance themselves from Trump after he spent months whipping supporters into a frenzy over the 2020 election, culminating in the riots at the Capitol on Jan. 6.

While that criticism faded and much of the GOP has remained loyal to Trump in the two years since, the question now is whether the former president can stave off the push among some conservatives to move on to a candidate who can carry on Trump’s brand of politics without the baggage.

Pence has indicated he is giving thought to a 2024 presidential bid, as has former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Both have said Trump’s campaign launch will not affect their decisions.

DeSantis, meanwhile, has become the star of the moment for many conservatives, earning fawning coverage from Fox News and The New York Post after a landslide re-election win last week.

The conservative Club for Growth, which broke with Trump on some of his midterm endorsements, released a poll on the eve of his 2024 announcement showing DeSantis leading Trump in head-to-head polls in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as their home state of Florida.

A Politico/Morning Consult poll released this week, however, was more favorable for Trump, finding that 47 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would back him in a presidential primary if it were held today, compared to 33 percent who said they’d support the Florida governor.

Since 2015, the party has been molded in Trump’s image. He reshaped the way the GOP discusses immigration, international alliances and trade. He brought scores of new voters into the fold, solidified the party’s hold on states like Ohio and Florida, and developed a devoted following, giving him a remarkably high floor of support within the party.

But Trump has also turned off independent and moderate voters with his unpredictability, his constant personal attacks on those who criticize or oppose him, his fixation on the falsehood that the 2020 election was stolen, and his legal entanglements over his business dealings and handling of classified documents, the latter of which involved a search of the property where he made Tuesday night’s announcement.

Tuesday’s speech served as the start of what will be a lengthy decision-making process for the GOP about whether it will remain Trump’s party for the foreseeable future, or if the electorate is ready to move on.

“The journey ahead of us will not be easy,” Trump said. “Anyone who truly seeks to take on this rigged and corrupt system will be faced with a storm of fire that only a few could understand.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Senate on verge of history with same-sex marriage vote

The Senate is set to move Wednesday toward enshrining marriage equality into federal law, a historic moment that elected leaders across the political spectrum say represents a milestone for Congress and the nation. “Just a few years ago, there would not be the support there is today for protecting the marriages of people in interracial and same-sex marriages,” Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who led the charge to pass the Respect for Marriage Act in the Senate, said Tuesday, ahead of Wednesday’s first procedural vote on the measure. 

Baldwin, who in 2012 became the first openly gay person elected to the upper chamber, said the Supreme Court’s 2015 ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges, which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide, has been instrumental in changing the “hearts and minds” of those previously opposed to gay unions.

 “Everybody knows couples that want nothing more than to make sure their families are protected like everyone else,” she told The Hill. “It’s heartening to see the progress.” 

The Respect for Marriage Act, a version of which was passed by the House in July, seeks to address a national patchwork of marriage laws by requiring states to recognize interracial and same-sex marriages as legally valid if those ceremonies were performed in one of the 15 states without a constitutional amendment or statute that prohibits them. 

It would also officially repeal the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), the 1996 law defining marriage as a union between one man and one woman. Both DOMA and individual state laws refusing to recognize same-sex marriages are unenforceable under protections established by the Obergefell ruling. 

But the protections of Obergefell received a warning shot this summer from Justice Clarence Thomas, who, in a concurring opinion when the Supreme Court overturned the federal right to an abortion, said the rights to marriage equality and contraception should also be reconsidered by the high court. Thomas’s opinion set off alarm bells, spurring the Democratic-controlled House to act on the Respect for Marriage Act. 

Senate Democrats had eyed a vote on the House-passed measure in September but agreed to delay until after the midterms when Republicans indicated it would increase the likelihood of it getting enough GOP support to overcome a filibuster. 

“If I wanted to pass that and I was the majority leader and I wanted to get as many votes as I could possibly get, I’d wait until after the election to have the vote,” retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) said at the time.   

Support for marriage equality among American voters hit an all-time high in June, and nearly 60 percent of adults in a July Politico and Morning Consult poll said the right to same-sex marriage should be shielded by federal legislation, including more than a third of Republicans and three-quarters of Democrats surveyed. 

“It’s incredibly important to me as an LGBTQ American, as someone who’s coming into Congress, to know that I have colleagues who are fighting on behalf of my rights,” said incoming Rep. Becca Balint (D), who in last week’s midterm elections became the first openly LGBTQ person and first woman sent to Congress from Vermont. 

Balint told The Hill on Tuesday she doesn’t believe recent additions to the bill that bolster religious liberty protections are necessary, but “if that is what we need to do right now, I want to make progress.”

“I would always rather get half of a loaf than no loaf,” she said. 

Just four Senate Republicans — Mitt Romney (Utah), Rob Portman (Ohio), Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Susan Collins (Maine) — have backed the Respect for Marriage Act publicly, but senators including Baldwin and Portman have suggested the measure has enough bipartisan support to overcome a filibuster. 

“It gives families all over America the peace of mind to know that their marriages are going to be valid in other states,” Portman, who is retiring after this Congress and whose conservative views on same-sex marriage shifted after his son, Will, came out as gay in 2011, told The Hill Tuesday. “I think that’s an important thing for us to assure people about.” 

If the updated bill does advance through the Senate, it will return to the House for a vote.

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Monday took procedural steps that set the groundwork for an initial Senate vote on the bill, which is slated for Wednesday. 

“No American should ever, ever be discriminated against because of whom they love, and passing this bill would secure these much-needed safeguards into federal law,” Schumer said Monday. 

Still, lawmakers agree that the bill isn’t a perfect solution and falls short of preventing the Supreme Court from overturning Obergefell and curtailing the rights of same-sex couples. 

“It’s a workaround and it provides some stability and security for same-sex unions,” Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.), who voted in favor of the measure in the House, told The Hill Tuesday. “But the problem of extreme arrogance in the Supreme Court remains.” 

“We have to do this because we’re worried about this — this is not a great thing,” Takano, one of nine openly gay House members, said Tuesday. “But it’s a happy day if the Senate moves on this.” 

Aris Folley contributed.

Source: TEST FEED1

Election deniers seize on Lake loss as GOP tries to move past claims

Kari Lake and her supporters are seizing on claims of a rigged election after her loss to Democrat Katie Hobbs in the Arizona governor’s race, complicating GOP efforts to move past such allegations after a disappointing midterm election for the party. 

Republicans saw the years-long cries of a rigged election in 2020 as having hurt their party after the GOP failed to win back the Senate and appears likely to just barely win back the House despite political and economic winds at its back. 

But false claims about fraud also appear to have taken over the party, with former President Trump backing Lake’s latest claims while repeating his own about 2020. 

“Kari Lake’s loss is the most significant for Donald Trump in the country,” said Brian Seitchik, an Arizona-based GOP strategist who is a Trump campaign alum. 

“Kari Lake was a fantastic communicator, a great candidate, was really able to connect with voters, but the fact that she was unable to flip the vote in the closest swing state from 2020 is a real disappointment for President Trump,” he continued. 

And Lake is by no means the only pro-Trump candidate to lose their election. Arizona Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters lost his race against incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over the weekend, while Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano (R) and Maryland gubernatorial candidate Dan Cox (R) lost their bids by wide margins. Further down the ballot, a number of election-denying candidates for secretary of state in battlegrounds like Arizona, Nevada and Michigan lost their races. 

“I think, like many of the other candidates, there was too much focus on the past and not on the future,” Seitchik said. “Those soft Republicans and independents broke against us, and I believe that they broke against Lake and not for Hobbs.” 

Seitchik isn’t alone in his assessment. Since results began trickling in last week, Republicans from both the party’s moderate and more conservative wings have said publicly it’s time to move past 2020. 

But Lake seemed to only be doubling down, tweeting “Arizonans know BS when they see it” as her race was called on Monday. She had spent the prior week leveling accusations of malfeasance against elections offices in Maricopa and other Arizona counties. 

Republican strategist Doug Heye, who said much of what has gone on in the GOP has “been more of a MyPillow Party than anything else,” said it was too early to tell whether the party would actually change course amid the internal criticisms of Trump. 

“What we don’t know yet is if there is a shift that comes with that,” Heye said. “Because we’ve certainly seen Republicans be critical of Trump and talk about moving away from him in the past and then not doing so.” 

And Republican primary voters, most of whom are staunchly conservative and pro-Trump, in swing states like Arizona were the voters who nominated Lake — and other candidates like her — in the first place. 

“Is the Republican Party going to be a dogmatic think tank or do we want to win elections?” said David Urban, a Republican strategist and former Trump adviser. 

Urban added that Republican candidates going forward cannot be “one size fits all,” noting the diversity in states and districts across the country.   

“Marjorie Taylor Greene could win her district, but she couldn’t win Brian Fitzpatrick’s district in Pennsylvania,” Urban said. 

“If, however, we start saying we have to believe these things to be sufficiently MAGA or you’re a RINO, then I think we’re going to lose,” he continued. 

In the wake of Lake’s loss, as well as other GOP midterm losses, many Republicans are pointing the finger directly at Trump and his supporters and appear eager to pivot away from talk of 2020. In Arizona, Lake’s GOP primary opponent Karrin Taylor Robson, who had been backed by former Vice President Mike Pence, called on state GOP chief Kelli Ward to step down.

Outgoing Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) told CNN in an interview on Monday that voters, particularly in battleground states, “aren’t interested in extremism,” while outgoing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) also placed the blame on Trump during an interview with the network on Sunday. 

Retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), whose seat Democrats flipped, said the former president was responsible for midterm losses and predicted his grip on the party was weakening. 

“A debacle like we had Tuesday night, from a Republican point of view, accelerates the pace at which that influence wanes,” Toomey told CNN. 

But some Republicans say Arizona’s issues with Trump-backed candidates performing poorly in general elections go much deeper than election denialism. 

“If you look at Arizona, this shift has been happening since 2018, since the first Martha McSally loss,” said Lorna Romero, an Arizona-based GOP strategist who worked on the late Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) reelection campaign. “Even though that wasn’t directly connected to election denialism because, you know, the 2020 election hadn’t happened yet, it was connected to this Trump rhetoric.” 

Still, this year Democrats were quick to take advantage of the growing number of MAGA candidates and made protecting democracy the closing message of their campaigns. 

“The core tenets of having a functioning democracy is not a partisan issue, or it certainly shouldn’t be,” said Kim Rogers, executive director of the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State. “You saw a lot of pro-democracy Republicans and independents crossing over to say ‘no’ to these election deniers. And I think that’s also why you saw our secretaries of state overperform in all of these states when you’re comparing it to the top of the ticket.” 

Republicans say that, unlike past recent elections, they are sensing a change in the party’s attitude toward Trumpism as a whole in the wake of Tuesday’s losses. 

 “There’s a different type of energy after what just unfolded this week than I’ve seen in previous election cycles from the more moderate, middle-leaning elements of the party to say ‘OK, you tried it, it didn’t work and now we’re losing key statewide seats in Arizona,’ ” Romero said. 

Strategists say ultimately the direction of the GOP will depend on what issues the party decides to elevate. 

“A lot of the people you’re talking about, it’s all based on the 2020 election,” Urban said. “It has to do with whether or not you believe the 2020 election was rigged or stolen, and if you do then you’re conservative and if you don’t you’re a RINO. And as long as that’s the yardstick, I think we’re going to have a problem.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump announces 2024 run for president

PALM BEACH, Fla. – Former President Trump, facing questions about his influence over the Republican Party, on Tuesday announced his entry into the 2024 race for the White House.

Trump made the announcement during a much-anticipated event at Mar-a-Lago, his private estate and club in Palm Beach, Fla., just a week after a lackluster midterm election performance denied Republicans the “red wave” they had long anticipated and led to days of finger-pointing within the party. 

Flanked by a dozen American flags in a gilded ballroom, Trump delivered a winding speech in which he boasted about — and often exaggerated — his record in the Oval Office and defended his party’s midterm performance, claiming that Republicans had “taken over Congress” and “fired” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Of other Republican midterm failures, Trump claimed that Americans had “not yet realized the full extent and gravity of the pain our nation is going through.”

“We always have known that this was not the end. It was only the beginning of our fight to rescue the American dream,” Trump said. “In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States.”

The former president on Tuesday made good on months of hinting that he could mount a comeback bid after losing reelection to President Biden in 2020. Since then, Trump has continued to cling to his false claim that widespread voter fraud and systemic irregularities robbed him of a second term in the White House — allegations some in the party say cost them crucial midterm races.

Even in announcing his latest campaign on Tuesday, Trump suggested that China may have played “a very active role in the 2020 election.”

Tuesday marks the beginning of Trump’s fourth presidential campaign, though only the third in which he is running as a serious political figure. But he is entering the 2024 race in a very different position than he was in when he launched his first successful bid for the Oval Office in 2015.

He is no longer just the businessman and reality TV star who won over Republican voters with his bombastic and controversial promises to “build the wall” at the U.S. southern border and “drain the swamp” in Washington.

To many Americans, Trump is a political pariah who sought to cast aside the peaceful transfer of power between presidential administrations in order to preserve his reputation as a winner in all facets of life. 

Trump’s efforts to turn over his 2020 electoral loss have put him at the center of a congressional investigation and isolated him from the biggest social media platforms, including Twitter, the site that once helped him build up his political profile.

He has also found himself at the center of a complex web of legal threats, ranging from investigations into his business to probes into his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. In August, FBI agents raided his Mar-a-Lago estate in South Florida as part of an inquiry into classified documents being kept there, an unprecedented move, though one Trump sought to cast as politically motivated.

He’s also heading into his campaign in a weakened state. Republicans had long anticipated a so-called red wave in 2022, believing that resentment of Biden and his party’s control of Congress would sweep them into the majority.

Instead, the elections yielded a significantly cloudier picture of the country. While Republicans are poised to capture a narrow majority in the House, they missed out on an opportunity to take control of the Senate — a failure that many Republicans blame on Trump and his repeated intervention in GOP primaries.

In fact, some advisers reportedly urged Trump to delay his announcement until more time had passed after the midterms.

But to other Americans, he remains a visionary who sought to bulldoze an opaque federal bureaucracy and advocate for the United States’ best interests in an increasingly globalized and interconnected world. 

And indeed, there are no signs that Trump may seek to turn over a new leaf in his 2024 presidential bid. His announcement on Tuesday echoed the themes that have defined his political career. He described America as being in a weakened state under Biden, railing against what he dubbed out-of-control inflation and immigration, and claiming that China had once again begun taking advantage of the U.S.

He said that his presidency had brought about a “golden age” in the U.S. Now, he said, America is “a nation in decline.”

“Under our leadership, we were a great and glorious nation — something you haven’t heard for quite a long period of time,” he said. “Now we are a nation in decline. We are a failing nation. For millions of Americans, the past two years under Joe Biden have been a time of pain, hardship and despair.”

While not entirely unexpected, his entrance into the 2024 presidential race comes at an unusual time. 

While the midterm elections have passed, there are still three weeks until a runoff Senate election in Georgia, and some Republicans fear the effect a Trump presidential run will have on their campaign in the state.

And while Trump remains by and large the most popular figure in the modern GOP, there are questions about whether he is the best standard-bearer for the political movement he started seven years ago. 

He remains unpopular among most voters. Exit polling from the 2022 midterm elections found that Trump is less popular than Biden, who’s favorability rating has sunk deep underwater. A Politico-Morning Consult poll released on Tuesday found that 65 percent of voters do not believe that Trump should mount another bid for the White House.

Most early polling shows him as the front-runner for the 2024 GOP presidential nod. But there are signs that other prospective candidates may be catching up, most notably Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. A growing number of Republicans see DeSantis, a longtime Trump ally, as a top-tier pick for the White House.

While DeSantis has downplayed the notion that he has presidential ambitions, he hasn’t ruled out a 2024 bid. Strengthening his argument for a presidential run was the fact that he notched a 19-point landslide victory in the midterms that sent him to a second term with a governing mandate. 

His swelling profile among Republicans nationally may be one of the reasons that Trump decided to jump into the race so early, according to multiple party operatives and strategists. 

“The president wants to get ahead of the curve,” one GOP donor, who requested anonymity to speak openly about the dynamics of the budding 2024 race, said. “I think he knows that every day, he’s losing a little bit more relevance. The idea is: Put yourself out there before someone else comes along.”

Updated at 9:50 p.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump files paperwork for 2024 presidential run

Former President Trump has filed his paperwork to run for the White House in 2024 with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC).

The candidacy filing was dated Tuesday and published moments before Trump was set to make a “special announcement” at his Mar-a-Lago property in Florida.

Trump for weeks has teased mounting another presidential run, which comes as he faces multiple investigations for his handling of classified records and promotion of unfounded election fraud claims in 2020.

Tuesday’s speech also comes just one week after the midterm elections.

Democrats have kept control of the Senate, but control of the House had not been projected as Trump walked out on stage in Florida, although Republicans were just one seat short of winning the majority.

Along with his statement of candidacy, Trump also designated a principal campaign committee titled “Donald J. Trump For President 2024” in a separate filing.

President Biden has indicated he intends to run in 2024, although he has not yet formally filed paperwork or made an announcement.

Source: TEST FEED1

The Memo: Losses for election deniers hold lessons for GOP

Some of the Republican Party’s most prominent election deniers were defeated in last week’s midterms. Now, many in the GOP hope their party will learn a hard lesson.

“For the groups that were promoting conspiracies about 2020, the midterm elections were a giant setback,” said strategist Alex Conant, who served as communications director for Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential bid.

“If you are a Republican looking to run for president in 2024, it is clear that being an election denier is going to be a liability in the general election,” Conant added.

Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake was the latest election denier to find herself on the losing side.

The former TV anchor, who was endorsed by former President Trump and had amplified his false claims regarding the 2020 presidential election, was projected late Monday to have lost narrowly to her Democratic opponent Katie Hobbs.

Lake had not conceded the race as of late Tuesday afternoon.

Among the other high-profile election deniers who lost were Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, Michigan gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon and U.S. Senate candidate Don Bolduc in New Hampshire. Bolduc had backed up Trump’s claims of fraud but reversed himself after winning his primary.

Jim Marchant, the GOP nominee for secretary of state in Nevada, also lost. Marchant had been one of the driving forces behind a vigorously pro-Trump “America First” slate of candidates spread across several states.

For Republicans from a more traditional mold, the results are a welcome rebuke to candidates whose appeal is confined to the party’s most rightward fringe. The outcome is also a reminder that statewide and national elections tend to be won by appealing to the center ground.

“I do think this will have an impact, but I’m still trying to figure out how much of an impact,” said Texas-based GOP strategist Brendan Steinhauser. 

Referring to the growing appreciation of the electoral downside to denialism and conspiracy theories, Steinhauser added, “I have at least seen significant numbers of people making that point who were not making that point before the midterms.”

The degree to which fringe-friendly candidates underperformed other Republicans was striking this year.

In Pennsylvania, Mastriano lost his race against Democrat Josh Shapiro by 15 points, roughly three times as large a margin as Mehmet Oz (R) suffered in his defeat to Sen.-elect John Fetterman (D).

An even starker example was seen in New Hampshire, where Bolduc lost his Senate race to incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) by roughly 7 points while Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, a Trump skeptic, won reelection by about 15 points.

Republican leaders in Washington, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), had unsuccessfully courted the moderate Sununu to run for the upper chamber.

“It’s not difficult to imagine Chris Sununu beating Maggie Hassan without a whole lot of trouble,” Republican strategist Dan Judy said.

Judy added, in reference to Bolduc: “By the time he started to pivot his campaign to the things voters were really concerned about, it was too late. He had defined himself — and been defined by the Democrats’ campaign — as this crazy election denier.”

But even the moderates acknowledge that there is not going to be an instant reversal in terms of the attitudes of the Republican base toward claims of election malfeasance.

An Economist-YouGov poll conducted in the days before the midterms found that 66 percent of Republican voters did not believe President Biden had won the 2020 election legitimately.

A third run for the White House in 2024 by Trump looks sure to inflame those voters further.

Those factors ensure there will, at the least, be an enduring constituency in Republican primaries for candidates trafficking in claims of election fraud.

Steinhauser said that he was not expecting a “sea-change” among the GOP electorate but that he could envision a situation where those entertaining false theories could drop from two-thirds to around 50 percent.

Judy, for his part, had an emphatic answer when asked if the defeats of the election deniers would have ramifications for the GOP.

“I certainly hope it will,” he said. 

“There is nothing that will cure a foolish policy position like losing.”

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

Source: TEST FEED1