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Midterm results dispel Hispanic rightward shift

Hispanic voters largely stuck to historical partisan trends in 2022, despite a narrative of a rightward shift among Latinos that could propel a Republican wave election.

Democrats largely outperformed Republicans in heavily Hispanic districts around the country, with the exception of Florida, a state that for decades was a GOP Hispanic stronghold.

The partisan split and the influence of Latino voters on a series of key elections underscored the importance of a Hispanic electorate once derided as a “sleeping giant.”

“From now on two things are true: Nobody can ever talk about a fucking sleeping giant. Because in Florida last night for the Republicans, and then in the rest of the nation for the Democrats, Latinos made a huge fucking difference in all of these races” said Chuck Rocha, a Democratic political operative who ran Latino outreach for Democrats in Pennsylvania.

“And the second thing is, it shows when Democrats woke up after the 2020 election, and started doing a better job – at least throwing a lot of money and resources at a lot of districts and states – it proved to work,” added Rocha.

In Texas, for example, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke, who lost his election, won the 93 percent Hispanic Hidalgo County with a 60-40 split, roughly the numbers Hispanic advocates expected to see there.

Throughout the country, but particularly in the West, Hispanic voters largely put down narratives of a rightward shift, with Democratic candidates in Hispanic districts largely doing well.

“We’ve seen these all these articles, all these narratives, I mean, the post mortems were written before [Tuesday],” said Victoria McGroary, the executive director of Bold PAC, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) campaign arm.

“Like ‘the rise of the Latina conservative,’ right, all of this? And yeah, over at Bold PAC and Latino groups on the ground, all of us who have been doing this work, invested in their communities for so long, have been like, ‘no, no, no, we gotta run through the tape,”  she added. 

In large part, the lack of a rightward shift followed a national trend of rejecting candidates seen as too extreme.

“That’s because Latinos rejected MAGA, period. Maga is toxic to Latinos,” said Kristian Ramos, a Democratic political operative.

Still, stories of a reddening of the Hispanic electorate were everywhere this election cycle, worrying some Democrats that the narrative would morph into a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

“I think Latino Democrats don’t listen to pundits. And I think that’s the reason why they just came out and voted in their own self-interest,” said Bold PAC Chair Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.).

“If you had been watching CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and listening to other political pundits, you would have thought that this was going to be obviously a different election, instead Latinos came out because it was important to them,” added Gallego.

So far, no Bold PAC House incumbents lost their seats, and Nevada Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto’s race is still too close to call.

Bold PAC’s dual mission is to protect CHC incumbents and add new members to the group of congressional Hispanic Democrats – after the 2022 midterms the CHC’s membership is likely to be the largest in its history.

The Republican Latino push had more ups and downs, although the GOP’s absolute dominance in Florida maintained the historical home base of Hispanic conservatism.

“In general, I would say overall, it was a mixed bag … just in general our election results, but also for the Latino vote. And one of the things that worked against Republicans was the high expectations,” said Jennifer Sevilla Korn, executive director of the Hispanic Leadership Network and a former Trump White House official.

Florida was the silver lining for Republicans in 2022 – their success was in part a result of aggressive redistricting, which yielded a handful of blue districts dotting a ruby red landscape.

“[Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis won by .05 percent four years ago. And the fact that he won by 20 percent and gained in Miami-Dade, a very blue county, is historic. And it’s not just Cubans, because that area has become very diverse,” said Korn.

The GOP’s Florida operation quashed Democratic hopes that South Florida districts would remain competitive, six years after then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton led a blue surge in the historically Republican region.

“South Floridian Latinos are going back to what they were prior to Hillary Clinton, and it looks like we have stemmed the bleeding in Texas, where obviously [Latinos are] still conservative leaning but still Democratic. And it looks like we are moving in the right direction everywhere else,” said Gallego.

Bold PAC took a victory lap Wednesday, celebrating wins in New Jersey, Florida, Texas, California and Illinois.

While the incoming members from those states were expected to win their races, Hispanic Democrats successfully defended two at-risk incumbents in South Texas, and remain competitive in too-close-to-call House races throughout the West, including in California, Washington and Oregon.

One New Mexico race was called early Thursday for the Democratic candidate, Rep.-elect Gabe Vazquez, who beat Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.), a top Bold PAC target in part for her role in perpetuating election denials.

In Colorado, Rep.-elect Yadira Caraveo (D) won a tight race to become the first Latina Colorado sends to Congress, representing the state’s newly-drawn 8th district.

And those wins are not coincidental – Bold PAC moved aggressively after the 2020 Census to influence redistricting, seeking to draw more districts that could supercharge Hispanic representation nationwide.

“Not to brag, but our staff practically went and got involved in redistricting, and created new districts that basically are probably going to end up getting us three Democrats, with Gabe Vasquez, Yadira Caraveo and Andrea Salinas. If it’s not for Bold PAC helping on redistricting on that, I’m not sure we get those districts and I’m not sure we get three new seats,” said Gallego.

Salinas, who competed for Oregon’s sixth district, is leading Republican Mike Erickson in a tight race with about 60 percent of ballots counted.

In that sense, Bold PAC’s aggressive campaign strategy mirrors DeSantis’ no-holds-barred approach to Florida politics, which stands in contrast to a national Democratic campaign that detractors say is too cautious, incumbent-centric, and East Coast-biased.

It’s also a strategy that some Democratic strategists say stands in contrast to the focus on so-called “frontline” members, moderate Democrats mostly from the East and Midwest who have traditionally been the focus of the party’s campaign apparatus.

“Latinos are the real frontline here. It’s not another member of some random suburban white district,” said Rocha.

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Senate GOP fears another Trump disaster in Georgia runoff  

Senate Republicans are worried that former President Trump may derail their chances of winning the runoff election in Georgia next month if he announces his 2024 presidential campaign in the next few weeks, and again thrusts his unsubstantiated claims of widespread election fraud into the spotlight.  

Trump’s critics in the GOP establishment are blaming him for their disappointing performance in Tuesday’s election, in which Republican candidates lost key races across the country and Republican turnout fell short of expectations.  

Republican strategists worry that if the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and GOP candidate Herschel Walker turns into a referendum on Trump, it will likely result in a loss that could cost them control of the Senate. 

“Hopefully Trump will stay out of the race as much as he possibly can and if that means holding off announcing his campaign for the White House, that would be smart move not just for Republicans’ chances in Georgia but Trump’s hopes to win the nomination for president,” said one GOP aide, who requested anonymity to discuss concerns about Trump’s impact on the Georgia race.  

“If you talk to Georgia election strategists, they believe Trump was a huge drag on Walker in suburban Atlanta and there’s just no reason to risk repeating that,” the source said. “If Trump injects himself into the race somehow and Walker comes up short, that’s really bad for Trump too.”  

Senate Republicans fear a reprise of the two Senate runoff elections they lost in Georgia last year, which cost Sens. David Perdue (R-Ga.) and Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) their seats and flipped control of the Senate to Democrats.  

Then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) pressed White House chief of staff Mark Meadows before the Jan. 2021 runoff elections in Georgia to rein in Trump’s claims of widespread voter fraud in Georgia.  

Trump, however, ignored the entreaties and campaigned in Georgia the day before voters went to the polls. He claimed during an hour-and-20-minute rally that “there’s no way we lost Georgia” to Joe Biden and declared the election was “rigged.”    

Perdue wound up receiving 215,000 fewer votes in the runoff election compared to what he won in the general election two months before, while his rival, Democrat Jon Ossoff, saw a drop-off of less than half that at 104,000 votes.  

A Senate Republican aide warned that Trump could crush Republican hopes of winning back the Senate majority if he makes the Georgia runoff all about advancing his own presidential ambitions.   

“I think it’s still possible that we win Nevada and then it all comes down to Georgia,” said a Senate Republican aide. “I think that we can win Georgia if Trump doesn’t tell people not to vote.  

“But if he’s going to come out in five days and announce his presidential run, that’s not going to be great for us,” the aide added. “He doesn’t know how to do anything other than make things about him.” 

Retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) on Thursday said Trump hurt Republican chances of winning the Pennsylvania Senate race by inserting himself into the contest between Mehmet Oz and John Fetterman.  

“President Trump had to insert himself and that changed the nature of the race and that created just too much of an obstacle,” Toomey said on CNN.  

Trump held a rally for Oz and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano in Latrobe, Pa., a few days before Election Day. 

“And by the way, it’s not just Pennsylvania. You look all over the country, there’s a very high correlation between MAGA candidates and big losses, or at least dramatically underperforming,” Toomey added, referring to Trump’s slogan: Make America Great Again.  

The message appears to be getting through to Trump’s circle of advisers.    

Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Trump, told Newsmax in an interview that he’s encouraging Trump to hold off on his presidential campaign announcement until after the Georgia runoff.  

“Of course, President Trump had said he’d be making an announcement on Nov. 15, next Tuesday. I’m advising the president to hold off until after the Georgia race,” he said.  

“Priorities A, B and C need to be about Herschel right now,” he added. “This is bigger than anything else in the country. We’ve got to show the focus is on Georgia.”  

Trump on Monday announced that he would make “a big announcement” on Nov. 15 at his estate at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla.  

Senate Republicans are bracing for the possibility that it could be a presidential campaign kickoff speech.  

As things now stand, Republicans will control at least 49 Senate seats next year, which means they need to win two of the three unresolved races in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada to control the majority in 2023.  

Republican candidate Adam Laxalt is leading Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by roughly 35,000 votes with approximately 83 percent of ballots counted.  

Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is leading Republican Blake Masters by nearly 100,000 votes with about 70 percent of ballots cast.  

If Laxalt and Kelly hand onto their leads and the parties split those two states, then the runoff in Georgia will decide control of the Senate.  

Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.) on Wednesday urged Trump to be careful not to disrupt Republican prospects of winning the Georgia runoff.  

Lott told SiriusXM host Steve Scully in an interview that Trump “could” have a negative impact on the race and said he believed he hurt Perdue and Loeffler last year. 

“It did last time. When President Trump went in there I got the impression it depressed the vote on the Republican side and we lost both senators,” he said. “That cost us the majority in the Senate.  

“We’re going to have to be careful about what we do and I would hope that former President Trump would be careful about what does there,” he added.  

Trump continues to push his claims that the 2020 election was stolen and has demanded that the candidates he supports embrace his views though he has failed to back them up with evidence.  

Trump on Thursday wrote on his Truth-Social social media platform that Oz made a “mistake” in the Pennsylvania Senate race by not supporting his claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

On Wednesday, he said that retired Army general Don Bolduc lost the New Hampshire Senate race to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) because he backed away from his previous assertion that the 2020 election had been stolen.  

“Don Bolduc was a very nice guy, but he lost tonight when he disavowed, after his big primary win, his long-standing stance on Election Fraud in the 2020 Presidential Primary,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.  

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How a GOP House could affect the student loan forgiveness plan

Republicans are locked in a battle with Democrats for the House majority, raising questions about how lawmakers opposed to the Biden administration’s student loan forgiveness plan might attack it if they gain control of the lower chamber

The race for the House remained too close to be called Thursday evening with dozens of races still to be called, though the GOP is favored to win a majority.

The student loan forgiveness program is already under assault in the courts, where at least six lawsuits are floating against the relief. And at least one lawsuit has seen some success, with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit putting a temporary pause on the forgiveness plan. 

GOP lawmakers were quick to oppose the program when it was announced, arguing it wasn’t fair to individuals who paid off their student loan debt or taxpayers who never went to college. 

“Biden’s debt transfer scam will make inflation even worse and does nothing to stop the runaway cost of college for most families,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said at the time. “Americans cannot afford Democrats’ radical agenda.”

In a statement to The Hill, Rep. Virginia Foxx (N.C.), the top Republican on the House Education and Labor Committee, said she expected legal challenges against the program to prevail.

“The Biden administration’s $400 billion wealth transfer is grossly unfair and Republicans will do everything we can to stop this abusive power grab, fix our broken student loan program, and lower the cost of college for students, families, and taxpayers,” she said.

But efforts to rein in the program are likely to be difficult for a GOP-led House, as experts say the party’s options to try to stop the effort are limited. 

In the months leading up to Biden’s announcement unveiling the forgiveness program in August, Republicans in both chambers ramped up legislative attacks.

The measures included legislation to keep Biden from canceling federal student debt without congressional buy-in, as well as a bill that would codify that the president lacked the authority to “blanket cancel federal student loans.”

The chances of either measure becoming law appear slim, however, even with the Senate majority also in question. Getting enough votes to overcome a filibuster or override a presidential veto could also be a high bar.

House Republicans could try to pass legislation to stop the program or attempt to challenge the measure through the Congressional Review Act (CRA), which only requires 50 votes in the Senate.  

If President Biden vetoed it, however, the House and Senate would need two-thirds support to override him. 

All that said, experts say a GOP-led House would not be without points of leverage.

Aziz Huq, Frank and Bernice J. Greenberg professor of law for the University of Chicago Law School, said Republicans eager for action on student loans would be more likely to succeed by attaching the effort to a must-pass vehicle in the next Congress.

“Remember that there will be appropriations bills. There will be a political compulsion to pass those,” he said. Another vehicle could be legislation to raise the nation’s debt ceiling. 

The Bipartisan Policy Center estimated in June that Congress will likely need to take action on the debt ceiling no earlier than the third quarter of 2023.

“We’re likely to see conflict over the debt ceiling,” Huq said.

Another likely option, and the one with the most potential for support, is a resolution condemning the program and saying Biden overstepped the separation of powers in government. However, a resolution has no political weight and would solely be a symbolic move. 

Experts say there is some political risk to Republicans going after the program. An Economist-YouGov poll at the end of August found 51 percent supported student debt relief while only 39 percent opposed it. 

“As much as a lot, I think, of Republicans probably oppose what the president did on principle, I think there’s always more hesitancy to do something concrete [that appears] to try and take things away from people,” Neal McCluskey, director for the Center for Educational Freedom at the Cato Institute, a libertarian-leaning think tank, told The Hill.

McCluskey says “there’s much more political risk” to supporting action against the student relief program and that doing so could alienate voters who were excited about the loan forgiveness.

Republicans could also look at a House-only lawsuit against the Biden administration, but McCluskey believes there would also not be enough support for that action. 

There may not be much of a challenge at all to the program from a GOP House given the political risks and the fact that there is no significant outside lobbying against the student loan relief. 

“There is nobody that has a specific group, that’s well organized, that has a clear price that will be paid for cancellation,” McCluskey said. “The closest you can get is loan servicers, but they’re not that big a group and they don’t have that much sway.”

However, there could be more significant pressure to ensure no future president or no future orders would be lawful to forgive student loan debt. 

“I think Republicans will certainly face pressure to ensure that future Democratic presidents don’t have the authority to cancel more student debt. Their constituents have often been critical of the president’s efforts,” said Beth Akers, senior fellow focused on higher education and student loans at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).

“But this isn’t an issue that Republican leaders needed an outraged constituency to motivate them to act. The unlawful and unfair forgiving of student loans goes against the basic tenets of Republican and conservative ideology.”

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Nevada Senate race on knife's edge as majority hangs in the balance

Republicans and Democrats are on tenterhooks as results from the Nevada Senate race trickle in, with both parties expressing optimism that they’ll prevail in a race that will help determine who holds a narrow majority in the upper chamber.

Democrats feared that a favorable political environment for Republicans, coupled with the ever-present issue of inflation in the tourism-dominated economy, would thwart Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s (D-Nev.) chances of reelection. But their mood has shifted as ballots counted in the counties of Clark and Washoe appear poised to help the senator close the gap with her GOP rival Adam Laxalt. Republicans, meanwhile, remain bullish that Laxalt will eke out a win.

Both parties are now playing the waiting game after local officials said counting will continue for several days. Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria predicted that by Saturday about 90 percent of ballots there would be counted. 

“Based on the votes that are left to count, there’s more vote to be counted in the rural areas of the state, there is a lot of Election Day drop box vote to be counted in Clark [County], and Republicans think that when all of it is tallied, Adam Laxalt will come out on top,” said one GOP strategist.

But Democrats and allied groups were similarly hopeful.

“We’re very optimistic and also proud of ourselves for the work we did throughout the cycle to get Latinos out to vote,” said Cecia Alvarado, Nevada executive director of Somos Votantes, a group that engages Latino voters and who endorsed Cortez Masto’s reelection bid. The group knocked on more than 1 million doors in the state alone.

Cortez Masto is fighting for a second term in the Senate after making history in 2016 as the first Latina senator. A former state attorney general and the daughter of a four-term Clark County commissioner, she won her election by just more than 2 percentage points six years ago.

Laxalt, also a former state attorney general and the 2018 GOP gubernatorial nominee who lost to Gov. Steve Sisolak (D), had enjoyed a slew of polls in recent weeks showing him edging out Cortez Masto. Many across the political spectrum agreed the race was a true toss-up, with Republicans holding the edge. But others — including some Republicans — said the race was always going to go down to the wire.

“I actually found that hard to believe that she was the most vulnerable,” said former Nevada GOP Chairwoman Amy Tarkanian, referring to Cortez Masto. “I completely disagree with that. I think she’s probably one of the most difficult to beat.”

“And the reason being is she has strong family roots in the state of Nevada. Her father was a very powerful county commissioner in Clark. She also was an attorney general, she’s very calculated. She doesn’t go off of script, so to speak, she doesn’t do anything crazy to bring attention to herself. And she also had the support of [former Senate Majority Leader] Harry Reid before he passed away.” 

Now both campaigns are waiting for the results to come in, which could stretch into early next week given the fact that ballots postmarked by Election Day can be received through Saturday. 

At the time of the writing, Laxalt led the senator by just less than 16,000 votes. Cortez Masto was ahead of Laxalt by over 33,000 votes in Clark County and by just over 350 votes in Washoe, though many more still need to be counted.

Democrats and political observers alike, however, believe that the senator has a good chance of holding on for a second term after a batch of results from both counties on Wednesday showed Cortez Masto holding comfortable leads over Laxalt. Still, it’s unclear how those margins will hold in future reported batches.

“Looking at the numbers that continue to come in & we’re on track to win. CCM has been winning mail ballots 2-1 in Clark, which just cut Laxalt’s lead by 5k votes. There are 57k Dem-heavy votes in Clark County dropboxes + thousands of mail ballots that will come in through Sat,” tweeted Cortez Masto campaign spokesperson Josh Marcus-Blank on Wednesday, referring to the senator’s initials.

Even political observers like Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman suggested Wednesday’s ballot batches gave Democrats reason to be optimistic. He said the party has an “excellent chance” of heading into the Georgia runoff with a Senate majority already in place.

While the counties of Washoe and Clark went for President Biden in 2020 by 5 and 9 points respectively, the GOP strategist who requested anonymity said he “absolutely” still felt optimistic Laxalt could pull off a win. 

“He’s actually ran a very impressive campaign. I know both Catherine and Adam, and so Adam is the one politician that had the largest Rolodex that I’ve ever encountered, and he had everything going for him — financially, endorsement-wise. I mean, he had people who even don’t like each other endorse him. He had both Senator Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump. So I mean, that’s impressive,” Tarkanian, the former state GOP chairwoman, said.

“I think at the end of the day, he should be very proud of himself,” she added.

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Federal judge strikes down Biden student debt relief program

A federal judge struck down President Biden’s student loan forgiveness program on Thursday, declaring it unlawful.

District Judge Mark Pittman ruled that the program, which would have provided borrowers with up to $20,000 in student loan relief, was “an unconstitutional exercise of Congress’s legislative power.” 

The Biden administration has argued that it has authority to forgive student loans under the Higher Education Relief Opportunities for Students Act of 2003. However, Pittman rejected this argument on Thursday, finding no “clear congressional authorization” for the program.

DEVELOPING

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Here are the Nevada counties to watch as votes counted in Senate, governor races

Nevada’s high-profile Senate and gubernatorial races remain up in the air, with tens of thousands of ballots to be counted over the next week in key counties that could eat away at GOP leads.

The exact number of ballots still to be reported remains unclear. Officials sent mail-in ballots to “active” registered voters unless they opted out, and mail ballots that arrive before Saturday at 5 p.m. local time will be counted, as long as they were postmarked by Election Day

Additionally, voters whose mail ballot signatures did not match state records have until Monday evening to “cure” their signature so their votes can be counted. Provisional ballots won’t be counted until next week. Election officials are still processing tens of thousands of ballots they already received, with many expected to be Democratic-leaning.

If those expectations hold accurate, Republican Senate nominee Adam Laxalt’s roughly 16,000-vote lead and Republican gubernatorial nominee Joe Lombardo’s roughly 34,000-vote lead could shrink or perhaps give Democrats victories.

Whatever the outcome, Nevada’s Senate race holds key implications for control of the upper chamber. 

If Democrats or Republicans win both of the two remaining races up for grabs — Arizona and Nevada — they win a majority. If the two races split, Georgia’s runoff election next month will become the pinnacle contest.

Counting in Arizona is also expected to stretch into next week.

As votes keep trickling in, here are two key Nevada counties to watch:

Clark County

Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and the southernmost part of the state, comprises nearly 73 percent of Nevada’s population, the highest proportion of a state’s population of any county in the country.

Due to its reliably blue electorate, The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston has called the county the “Clark Dem firewall.”

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won the county by nearly 11 points in 2016, and President Biden by 9 points in 2020.

But as of Thursday afternoon, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) only leads Laxalt by 5 points in the county, and Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) leads Lombardo there by 3 points.

Joe Gloria, Clark County’s registrar of voters, said at a Thursday press conference that just more than 50,000 ballots remain uncounted, all of which are mail ballots, and he expects most will be reported by Saturday.

Democrats are hoping those mail votes will improve their margins and outweigh the GOP’s current lead, along with remaining gains in red, rural counties.

Clark County is reporting new votes nightly, and Wednesday evening’s batch of 14,092 ballots broke for Democrats by a roughly 2-to-1 margin.

But Gloria said counting will stretch into next week, because ballots can still arrive in the mail through Saturday — 626 were received on Thursday alone — and 7,155 Clark voters have until Monday to “cure” their mismatched mail ballot signature. Another 5,555 provisional ballots have yet to be rectified for other reasons.

“There are statutory deadlines here that prevent me from finishing any earlier than the general public or you, the media, would like to see us work,” Gloria said. “I can’t stop until Saturday for the mail. I can’t stop until Monday for the cure. I can’t count provisionals until next Wednesday at the earliest.”

Despite Democrats’ recent gains in the latest Clark County vote batch, Laxalt was skeptical she could take the lead.

“Of the 84,000 votes left to count in Clark County, Cortez Masto could win 63% of them and she would still lose,” Laxalt tweeted Thursday morning. “That doesn’t even take into account the gains we will make from rural counties.”

“Last night went exactly as we anticipated,” Laxalt continued. “We added 3K from the rurals and more are coming. She added some Clark County mail. We expect the remaining mail universe to fall well below the percentage she needs to catch us. No status change.”

Washoe County

Washoe County, which encompasses Reno and stretches north to the Oregon-Nevada border, is the state’s only other county that former President Trump lost in both 2016 and 2020.

Biden won the county by 5 percentage points, and Hillary Clinton won there by just 1 point, making Washoe a key battleground in the swing state.

Washoe also is Nevada’s second-most populous county, comprising nearly 16 percent of the population, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. Combined with Clark, nearly 9 in 10 state residents live in the two counties.

Washoe’s reported results so far show a nearly even split. Cortez Masto leads Laxalt by 0.2 percent in Washoe, while Lombardo leads Sisolak by 2 percent.

Like Clark, Washoe also has yet to report tens of thousands of mail ballots.

The county’s data shows it has received 102,470 mail ballots so far, but Washoe has only reported the results of 60,828 of those votes.

Washoe election officials said in a Thursday statement that a “small update” will be posted in the evening, but the “bulk” of the ballots will be reported on Friday.

“My focus is to count ballots accurately, not quickly,” Washoe County interim Registrar Jamie Rodriguez said.

Washoe officials indicated Thursday’s delivery of new mail ballots exceeded expectations, reaching roughly 4,500 new ballots. 

Roughly 1,400 ballots in the county are awaiting a signature cure, an additional few hundred “suspended” ballots will be processed after others are tabulated and a further few hundred are damaged and will be duplicated by a bipartisan board for counting, officials said.

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McCarthy announces bid for Speaker with House majority yet to be called

Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has officially announced his bid for Speaker of the House, throwing his hat into the ring even as votes are still being counted to determine which party will control the lower chamber.

McCarthy, who has long eyed the Speaker’s gavel, sent a letter to House Republicans on Wednesday asking for their support in his quest for the top spot in the chamber.

He pointed to the party’s midterm victories — including toppling the head of the Democrats’ campaign arm — saying that while votes are still being counted, signs are pointing in the GOP’s direction.

“While a number of races remain outstanding, I can confidently report that we will join that list, build on our significant gains from last cycle, and achieve our goal of taking back the House,” McCarthy said in his letter.

“Now, we will be measured by what we do with our majority. Now, the real work begins. That is why I am running to serve as Speaker of the People’s House and humbly ask for your support,” he added.

Republicans were favored to win control of the House, according to several forecasters, but two days after Election Day, the balance of power in the chamber remains unknown. At 4 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, Republicans controlled 208 seats and Democrats held 188.

If Republicans do win the majority, it will likely be by a far smaller margin than initially anticipated, when many in the party were predicting a “red wave.” That fact could complicate McCarthy’s bid for the Speakership — particularly if the conservative House Freedom Caucus refuses to support his run, or if they put forward their own candidate to challenge the California Republican.

No other lawmakers, however, have announced runs for the top spot thus far.

McCarthy came close to securing the Speakership in 2015 before taking himself out of the running just before members were set to vote on the top spot. The then-majority leader dropped out after drawing criticism for comments that suggested that there was a political motive behind the conference’s investigation into the 2012 attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

He drew a link between the investigation and poll numbers for Hillary Clinton, who was secretary of State at the time of the attack and later became the 2016 Democratic nominee for president.

McCarthy ultimately had a difficult time winning over support from the Freedom Caucus.

This time around, however, the California Republican is expressing a greater sense of optimism in his quest for the Speaker’s gavel. He told New York Magazine in an interview published last month that he is “better prepared now” to lead as Speaker.

Earlier in October, the GOP leader told Punchbowl News that if he does not win the top spot this time, it is “not in God’s plan for me to be Speaker.”

In his letter on Wednesday, McCarthy said, “I am determined to ensure that this majority reaches its full potential.”

“Starting today, it is up to each one of us to demonstrate leadership on the issues that matter most and do what is required to get America back on track. There is no time to waste,” he later wrote. 

“Speaking to so many of you, I know you are ready for this important job before us. It will not always be easy or even pretty — but if we stick together and maintain our mission, I am confident we can make a real difference for this nation we love,” he added. “America deserves nothing less.”

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Arizona election officials to count votes until 'early next week'

The wait to determine winning candidates in Arizona slogged along on Thursday as election workers in Maricopa County still have not begun wading through a massive tranche of early ballots that were handed in on Election Day that have created chaos and lengthened the time until races can be called. 

Maricopa County, the most populous county in the state, is set to announce another batch of votes later tonight and will continue counting votes on Friday. However, Bill Gates, a top Maricopa County elections official, announced on Thursday that officials have not started counting the roughly 290,000 ballots that were dropped off on Election Day. He said that process is expected to begin on Friday. 

“If you drop off an early ballot, it means it has to come in on Wednesday and start the process of being signature verified,” Gates told CNN. “We have experts here who go through, compare the signature on the outside of the ballot envelope with the signature that we have in our voter registration file, so that takes a while, cause we gotta get that right.”

Mail-in ballots that were handed in are subject to that rigorous process before they are sent off to be tabulated. The 290,000 ballots that were dropped off on Election Day is a massive jump from previous cycles. In 2020, 170,000 ballots were dropped off on Election Day.

The delay has Republicans fed up and upset at the constant calls by former President Trump and his supporters to not trust the mail-in ballot system, a move that has delayed determining final results by days. 

“It’s all just a misnomer. I 100 percent blame Donald Trump for these f—-ups,” said one Arizona-based GOP operative. “If you send them in ahead of time, they have time to process them. But if you drop them off on the day of, what the f— do you expect.” 

Maricopa County on Wednesday released a batch of 62,034 votes on Wednesday night that were part of the 86,000 mail-in ballots that arrived between Friday and Sunday. There were an additional 50,000 mail-in ballots that arrived on Monday. More of these votes are expected to be announced later tonight.

“This number is immense, and it’s a conversation that probably Arizona needs to have in terms of public policy because this is a number that keeps on growing,” said Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer. “In many ways, it’s wonderful. Arizonans appreciate the ease of the voting process and that you can just take your early ballot and drop it off on Election Day, but it does inhibit us from having a higher percentage of returns available within the first 24-48 hours.”

At present, all statewide races have yet to be called as they all remain tight. Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) holds a lead of more than 12,000 over Republican Kari Lake.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D) leads his reelection battle over Republican Blake Masters by nearly 95,000 votes — a five-percentage point margin. A win by Kelly would give Democrats 49 Senate seats, leaving the battle for control of the chamber to Nevada and Georgia.

One of the questions remaining about the 290,000 ballots is their composition. According to one Arizona Democratic operative, it is unclear what the breakdown is of those that were dropped off at a polling place, placed in a drop box or arrived in the mail on Election Day. 

As of Thursday afternoon, 619,000 ballots remain uncounted, according to the Arizona secretary of state’s office. 

“We continue to be confident that we will win this race, and are grateful for Arizona’s elections officials working around the clock to count outstanding ballots across the state,” Emma Brown, Kelly’s campaign manager, said in a statement. 

A source familiar with the Masters campaign told The Hill that of those 290,000 ballots handed in on Election Day, the GOP nominee needs at least 60 percent of those to give him a shot of overcoming the retired astronaut’s lead. 

“I would be really surprised if Kari doesn’t manage to pull ahead,” a second Arizona-based GOP operative said.  “If she pulls ahead, she’ll probably declare victory.”

The operative said if Lake pulls into the lead, she’s likely to maintain it given what the operative know of the outstanding votes.

“It’s hard to see a path for Masters,” the operative continued. “[The media’s] going to be skittish to call it until everything’s in. It’s better to be patient on this because they don’t want to be wrong.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Here's where Democrats, GOP stand in the midterms

Midterm election results have been trickling in on Thursday after initial results showed modest gains for Republicans on Election Night earlier this week.

Control of the Senate has yet to be determined, with results from Nevada and Arizona still coming in and a runoff in Georgia’s Senate race slated for December.

The battle for the House, meanwhile, is proving to be a nail biter, with many toss-up races still uncalled but Republicans holding an edge.

In the states themselves, key gubernatorial races in Nevada and Arizona have yet to be called, while Democrats have made gains in some legislatures across the nation.

Here are where the midterm results currently stand.

Senate 

The Senate spotlight is on Arizona and Nevada as votes continuing to trickle in. As of Thursday, Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly led his GOP challenger Blake Masters 51.4 percent to 46.4 percent with roughly 70 percent, according to The Associated Press. The state’s most populous county, Maricopa County, is currently in question, with the county’s election officials saying it could take until Friday for all of its votes to be counted. County officials said they expect 90 to 95 percent of ballots to be counted by Friday. The county is expected to favor Kelly, given its heavily Democratic lean. 

Up in Nevada, an even closer race is unfolding, with incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto trailing her GOP challenger Adam Laxalt by roughly two points as of Thursday afternoon, according to The Associated Press. More than 80 percent of ballots have been counted, but mail-in ballots from Clark and Washoe counties still need to be counted. Democrats say they are feeling optimistic given the Democratic lean of those two counties. 

Democrats and Republicans need two states to reach the majority in the upper chamber, meaning that if one of the parties clinches both Arizona and Nevada it would gain control. However, if one party were to win Arizona and another win Nevada, control of the Senate would hinge on what happens in Georgia in December. 

This is because Georgia’s Senate contest went to a runoff after neither candidate reached the 50-percent threshold needed to win outright. Now, incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are set to face off on the ballot again on Dec. 6.

Both parties are already ramping up their efforts in the Peach State. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a $7 million field organizing investment in Georgia on Thursday. Warnock’s campaign also rolled out a memo explaining why Warnock can win, pointing to his experience running in a runoff in 2021 and what they called Walker’s “weak performance an environment that set him up for success.” 

“Not only did Walker underperform Governor Kemp, he earned fewer raw votes than every single Republican on the ballot,” wrote Warnock’s campaign manager Quentin Fulks. “Of nine statewide Republican candidates, Walker was one of only two who failed to clear two million votes.”

Meanwhile, Walker’s campaign said on Thursday that he raised $3.3 million on the first day of his runoff campaign. The Republican candidate is also getting a boost from outside of his campaign. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is slated to campaign for Walker on Thursday and the anti-abortion group, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said that it will invest at least $1 million into Walker’s runoff effort. 

House 

As of Thursday afternoon, the GOP had won 209 seats, while the Democrats had won 191, according to The Associated Press. Republicans appear on track to win back control of the lower chamber, but the Democrats’ better-than-expected performance has certainly lessened the blow and could give the GOP less leverage when the new Congress convenes next year.  

On Thursday, Democrats scored wins in Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District, which incumbent Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) was defending, and in Illinois’ 7th Congressional District where Democrat Eric Sorensen defeated Republican Esther Joy King in one of the most competitive races this cycle. Meanwhile, former Interior secretary under Trump, Ryan Zinke, won his congressional race in Montana’s first congressional district on Thursday. 

But one of the most-closely-watched races hanging in the balance is incumbent conservative GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert’s reelection bid in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District. The race was not expected to be tight, yet Boebert is currently leading by just over 400 votes. 

Governor’s races 

Republican governors and candidates have won in 24 states while Democrats have won in 22. Incumbent Republican Govs. Ron DeSantis (Florida), Greg Abbott (Texas) and Mike DeWine (Ohio) sailed to reelection in their states, while incumbent Democratic Govs. Gavin Newsom (California), Laura Kelly (Kansas), and Kathy Hochul (New York) were able to protect their seats as well. 

Four governor races have yet to be called in Nevada, Arizona, Oregon and Alaska. Like in Arizona’s Senate race, the ballots are still being counted in the state’s governor’s race. According to The Associated Press on Thursday, Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs leads Republican candidate Kari Lake by roughly 13,000 votes. In Nevada’s gubernatorial contest, Democratic incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak is trailing GOP challenger Joe Lombardo by roughly 34,000. Further up north in Oregon, Democrat Tina Kotek is leading Republican Christine Drazan by roughly 44,000 votes. 

In Alaska’s governor’s race, which uses ranked-choice voting, GOP incumbent Mike Dunleavy handily leads his Democratic challenger Les Gara by over 62,000 votes. The race has not yet been called by the Associated Press. 

State legislatures 

Democrats saw a particularly good night in state legislatures. The party took control of state legislatures in Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland and Massachusetts. Like in races further up the ballot, results are still coming in from the races in Arizona, where Republicans hold slim majorities. 

The race for the majority in Pennsylvania’s state legislature is also a nail-biter. While Republicans remain in control of the state’s Senate, as of Thursday Democrats were only two states away from flipping the Key Stone State’s lower chamber. 

While Democrats are touting their gains in state legislatures this cycle, Republicans still remain in control of the majority of state legislatures. The GOP saw major victories in Florida’s state legislature races, securing super majorities in both chambers. 

Source: TEST FEED1