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House Democrats' campaign chief concedes to Lawler in stunning loss

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.), the head of House Democrats’ campaign arm, conceded his race on Wednesday against state Assemblyman Mike Lawler (R), a major blow to the party and a stunning defeat for the man charged with propelling other House Democrats to victory.

William F. B. O’Reilly, a spokesperson for Lawler’s campaign confirmed in a tweet that Maloney had “just called to graciously concede to @lawler4ny.” Lawler’s win in New York’s 17th Congressional District marks the first general election defeat for a campaign chair of either party since 1980.

The Hill has reached out to Maloney’s campaign for further comment.

Once projected to sail to victory, Maloney, who heads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, increasingly faced a competitive race as GOP operatives dedicated millions of dollars to support Lawler and topple Maloney, one of Democrats’ highest-profile vulnerable lawmakers.

Those Republican investments furthered tightened an already close race, creating a very different scene on Tuesday from two years ago, when President Biden won the Hudson Valley-based district by 10 points.

Lawler’s victory marks an embarrassing defeat for the five-term New York Democrat, who switched districts immediately after the state approved new congressional maps in a move that angered many within his party. Maloney chose to run in the new 17th Congressional District with more favorable lines instead of the 18th Congressional District, which he currently represents.

That move pushed out Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), who currently represents the 17th Congressional District, requiring him to run in the nearby 10th Congressional District to avoid an awkward member-on-member primary. He lost his Democratic primary in August.

That move was considered controversial given Maloney’s role as the chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm was to boost incumbents and protect the Democrats’ majority in the lower chamber.

But that wasn’t the only hurdle that Maloney faced when he chose to run in the new 17th Congressional District. Given the district included a majority of new constituents, it required the powerful Democrat to introduce him to the district – not an expensive feat, as the nonpartisan Cook Political Report noted in October.

The House Democrats’ campaign arm even launched an ad buy of over $600,000 in the district, raising eyebrows given it meant that money would be spent away from other competitive House races.

Ahead of the race being called, some Democrats suggested that it would be karma if Maloney lost his race.

“If Sean Patrick Maloney loses in NY, after driving Mondaire Jones out of his own district and prioritizing petty short-term political games over the needs of voters, well, that’s just a shame isn’t it,” Democratic strategist Max Burns tweeted.

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Oz calls Fetterman to concede

Republican Mehmet Oz has called Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) to concede the Senate race, according to Fetterman’s campaign. 

Joe Calvello, Fetterman’s communications director, tweeted that Oz called Fetterman at 9:30 a.m. on Wednesday after most major news outlets called the race for Fetterman early Wednesday morning. 

Polls showed the race as one the closest Senate contests in the country, and Republicans had hoped that Oz’s victory could deny a Democratic pickup opportunity and help the GOP seal a majority in the body. 

Oz closed in on Fetterman’s lead in the polls as Election Day approached, but Fetterman was able to hold on to win by likely a few percentage points. 

Democrats’ victory in the seat that has been held by the retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is a key pickup in the party’s path to holding their slim majority in the Senate.

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Fox News commentator describes midterms as 'searing indictment' for GOP

Fox News pundit and Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen said the Republican Party has some major soul-searching to do following the 2022 midterm elections.

Thiessen in commentary as results were coming in early Wednesday morning said it was an indictment of the GOP to not have done better given the headwinds faced by Democrats in the election.

“There is a broader issue, and think about this: We have the worst inflation in four decades, the worst collapse in real wages in 40 years, the worst crime wave since the 1990s, the worst border crisis in U.S. history, we have Joe Biden, who is the least popular president since Harry Truman, since presidential polling happened, and there wasn’t a red wave,” Thiessen said.

“That is a searing indictment of the Republican Party. That is a searing indictment of the message that we have been sending to the voters. They looked at all of that, and looked at the Republican alternative, and said ‘no thanks.'”

The GOP, Thiessen continued, “needs to do a really deep introspection look in the mirror right now, because this is an absolute disaster for the Republican Party, and we need to turn back.”

The outcomes in the House and Senate remained unclear on Wednesday, as it was still possible the GOP could secure both chambers.

But Democrats also had clearly exceeded expectations.

Democrats were able to fight back Republican challengers in a number of key congressional races on Tuesday evening, including Senate seats in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire and a number of competitive House races in the Washington, D.C. exurbs.

Republicans did notch big wins in Florida and Ohio on Tuesday evening, but the “red wave” that analysts and political observers had predicted would sweep the nation midway through president Biden’s first term didn’t materialize.

Several of the GOP candidates for Senate and governor who had aligned themselves with former President Trump were either projected on Tuesday evening to lose or were trailing significantly as of early Wednesday morning.

“We need to look at who won today,” Thiessen said. “Ron DeSantis [in Florida]. DeWine [in Ohio]. These governors. Kemp [in Georgia], Abbott [in Texas]. … This is the path to the future. And electing these, you know, these radical candidates who ran far behind them has put the Republican Party in a terrible position, and voters have left, have indicted the Republican Party.”

Updated at 8:36 a.m.

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The Hill's Morning Report — Majorities too close to call as Democrats stave off red wave

Editor’s note: The Hill’s Morning Report is our daily newsletter that dives deep into Washington’s agenda. To subscribe, click here or fill out the box below.

House, Senate majorities too close to call

House and Senate control in the new year remain uncertain this morning as voters’ ballots continue to be counted and key midterm contests remain remarkably close.

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman flipped a seat and defeated Republican challenger Mehmet Oz in a roller coaster Senate contest considered crucial for Democrats (The Hill). 

Republicans are celebrating Senate victories in North Carolina with candidate Ted Budd and in Ohio with J.D. Vance, holding on to GOP seats in both open races, while Democratic incumbents beat back challengers in Washington, New Hampshire and Colorado to return to the nation’s capital.

▪ The Boston Globe: New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) defeats conservative election denier Don Bolduc.

▪ The Associated Press: Sen. Mark Kelly (D) takes an early lead in battleground Arizona.

Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker this morning are grappling in a tight race in the state that determined partisan control of the Senate nearly two years ago and could do so again. If neither can win the contest outright, they would head to a Dec. 6 runoff. “We’re not sure if this journey is over tonight or if there’s still a little work yet to do,” Warnock told supporters in an Atlanta hotel ballroom just before 2 a.m.

In Wisconsin, incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads challenger Mandela Barnes (D) this morning with 94 percent of the votes counted (The New York Times).

House and Senate projections and results called by The Associated Press are HERE.

Amid voters’ anxieties about inflation and the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling, the narrow results hand each nervous party some terrain on which to claim victory. Among Tuesday’s surprises was the durability of some vulnerable incumbents in both parties and the absence of a decisive “red wave” that had been predicted by some analysts based on election history and this year’s evident GOP voter enthusiasm.

President Biden could face a divided government and a loss of power that would shift his policy agenda and perhaps amend his political future. He will be 80 in 11 days and says he will soon decide whether to seek reelection. Two-thirds of voters surveyed in an NBC News exit poll said they do not want Biden to run again.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who is in line to be Speaker if his party takes control, huddled with Republicans after midnight in a Virginia restaurant and vowed to win the majority as he addressed a crowd. “We are expanding this party,” he said, while ticking off a list of the House seats captured by Republicans. “The American people are ready for a majority that will offer a new direction that will put America back on track.”

A few hours later, McCarthy told the sleepless assembly, “It is clear we are going to take the House back,” pointing to what he called historic gains in New York as well as wins in Iowa and Florida, now a solidly Republican state. “When we wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority,” he said of the House Speaker from California who this week hinted she may retire.

In 2018, Republicans lost 40 House seats when former President Trump was in office and gained two Senate seats. Former President Obama used the word “shellacking” in 2010 to describe Democrats’ loss of 63 House seats and six Senate seats on his watch. Former President Clinton was forced to alter his agenda in 1994 after 54 Democrats in the House and eight in the Senate were defeated and a divided government resulted.

“Hat’s off to the Democrats,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said late Tuesday during an interview with NBC News. “It’s not a wave for sure.”

▪ The Hill’s Niall Stanage has five early takeaways from midterm results. 

▪ Politico: The red wave that wasn’t: Five takeaways from a disappointing night for the GOP.

▪ The Washington Post: Democrats show strength, leaving the fight for control of Congress unresolved.

▪ The Hill: Democrats feel something unfamiliar: hope

▪ Politico: White House staff changes are coming. Will chief of staff Ron Klain be part of them?

In Virginia House races considered bellwethers on Tuesday, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) narrowly won her third congressional race as a moderate, this time in redrawn District 7 after campaigning with endorsements from GOP surrogates. She defeated Republican Yesli Vega (The Hill). In Virginia’s District 10, Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton fended off a challenge from Republican Hung Cao (The Hill). 

NBC4: Incumbent Virginia Democrats Spanberger, Wexton win third terms in House Districts 7, 10.

As hopes for a sweeping red wave faded, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) emerged as a clear winner among Republicans on Tuesday night, fueling talk of a 2024 presidential bid with his landslide reelection victory over Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, writes The Hill’s Brett Samuels. His double-digit victory fueled a possible 2024 bid, as the governor emerged as a preferred alternative to former President Trump among parts of the conservative base.

But the GOP’s early win in a key governor’s race didn’t stop Democrats from holding on to a number of governorships in states that pollsters had just days before predicted to be tough contests. 

In Pennsylvania, Democrat Josh Shapiro defeated Republican Doug Mastriano,who was central to efforts to overturn Pennsylvania’s 2020 election results. The race, which Shapiro finished with a comfortable two-digit lead, was characterized by the candidates’ views on abortion, and allegations of antisemitism after Mastriano attacked Shapiro, who is Jewish, for attending and sending his children to what he called a “privileged, exclusive, elite” school that evidenced Shapiro’s “disdain for people like us” (The New York Times).

Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won re-election in Michigan, defeating Republican challenger Tudor Dixon and securing Democratic leadership in the critical swing state (NBC News). In Wisconsin, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers was also reelected, securing a second term as he defeated challenger Tim Michels (The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

Republicans maintain control of the governor’s mansions in Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott defeated challenger Beto O’Rourke, and Georgia, where Gov. Brian Kemp again secured victory over Democrat Stacey Abrams in a repeat of the 2018 elections (The Wall Street Journal and The Hill). 

Despite warnings about possible violence at polling places, recounts and lost ballots, Tuesday proved a fairly calm election night. While a handful of state election websites were hit with low-level cyberattacks (The Hill), and voting machine problems in Arizona fueled right-wing fraud claims (The New York Times), Americans voted without major problems in elections that drew intense scrutiny after two years of false claims and conspiracy theories about how ballots are cast and counted (The Associated Press).

➤ FIRSTS & PATHBREAKERS

Tuesday marked a series of firsts in races across the country, as candidates broke barriers of race, age and sexual orientation. 

In Maryland, Democrat Wes Moore became the state’s first Black governor, and only the third Black governor to be elected nationally (NPR). Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders is the first woman to be elected governor in Arkansas, and she will follow in the footsteps of her father, former Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee (NPR). Massachusetts elected its first female governor, Democrat Maura Healey, who is also the first openly lesbian governor in the country (The Hill).

“Tonight, to all of you out there and with the help of so many, we made history,” Healey told supporters at an election night celebration in Boston (The Boston Globe). “Tonight I want to say something to every little girl and every young LGBTQ person out there: I hope tonight shows you that you can be whatever — whoever — you want to be. I stand before you tonight proud to be the first woman and the first gay person ever elected governor [in Massachusetts].”

Vermont will send its first woman to Congress in January with Democrat Becca Balint’s election in the Green Mountain State, becoming the last state to do so (The New Republic and The 19th). And in Florida, Democrat Maxwell Frost won his race at just 25 years old, making him the first member of Gen Z to head to Congress (The Hill).

New Hampshire will send the nation’s first openly transgender man to the state legislature after Democrat James Roesener won his election (The Hill). 

▪ The Hill: Ten candidates that made history Tuesday night.

▪ CNN: Meet the history-makers of the 2022 midterm elections.

Related Articles

▪ The Washington Post: Election deniers score big wins, but also suffer significant setbacks.

▪ The Associated Press: Democrats beat Trump-backed GOP candidates in liberal states.

▪ The Hill: Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), who drew Trump’s ire, wins reelection, according to AP’s projection. 

▪ The Hill: Trump warned DeSantis against a 2024 White House bid during a Monday interview with Fox News, saying it wouldn’t be “good” for the GOP. “If he runs, he runs,” he added. The former president may launch his third bid for the White House on Tuesday at his Florida estate.

▪ The Hill: After his reelection victory, DeSantis touted Florida’s “rewritten,” gerrymandered political map as supporters chanted “two more years.” 

▪ The Hill: During the same Fox News interview Monday, Trump vowed, if elected president in 2024, to force Republicans to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) as their Senate leader. Florida Sen. Rick Scott is the “likely candidate” for the job, Trump asserted.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ VOTERS’ VIEWS

Exit polls showed that voters on Tuesday are discouraged about the state of America and its future, but also worried about key issues such as abortion and inflation (The Hill). The Associated Press VoteCast exit poll indicated high inflation and concerns about the fragility of democratic institutions weighing heavily on voters. Meanwhile the NBC News Exit Poll saw Americans focused on inflation and abortion, key issues for Republicans and Democrats, respectively.

The NBC exit poll found that voters mostly disapprove of Biden’s job performance and a plurality said they think his policies are hurting the country. A majority of voters also said they are dissatisfied or angry about the way the country is going.

The Edison Research exit poll, used by other television networks, suggested that this midterm electorate skewed older than voters in 2018, with about one-tenth of voters in this election under age 30, while roughly one-third were age 65 or older (CNN).

Americans around the country regardless of party appeared to agree that voting matters. 

“I want to do everything I can to use my voice to create the kind of democracy that deserves to exist,” Cheryl Arnold, a voter in Haymarket, Va., told The New York Times.

ProPublica: How Tennessee disenfranchised 21 percent of its Black citizens.

Across the country, ballot measures offered an unfiltered glimpse into voters’ stances on some of the most pressing and polarizing issues, including voting rights and gun restrictions (The New York Times).

Voters made the importance of abortion clear in ballot measures in multiple states (The New York Times). Vermont became the first state to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, with a decisive 72 percent of voters supporting the measure (The Vermont Digger). California followed suit hours later, similarly passing a proposition to codify abortion rights in the state (NBC LA). In Michigan, voters supported a state constitutional right to reproductive freedom, including decisions “about all matters relating to pregnancy,” such as abortion and contraception (WXYZ). 

In Montana and Kentucky, voters turned out against amendments that would have stated there is no right to abortion in their states’ constitutions (WCPO and The Hill).

Maryland and Missouri, meanwhile, both voted to legalize recreational marijuana (The Hill and The St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

➤ CONGRESS:

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack is set to dissolve this year, but if there is a GOP takeover of the House, it leaves a near zero chance it will be revived, reports The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch.  

The Hill’s Colin Meyn explains what the midterms could mean for the U.S. role in the Ukraine war. 

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) increased pressure on the Federal Reserve over recent ethics lapses, sending a new letter to Chairman Jerome Powell after two more incidents that she called “egregious and embarrassing” (Bloomberg News).

“The revelations underscore my long-held concerns that Fed officials could be seen as profiting from their positions by leveraging sensitive information, and that they are overly cozy with the Wall Street banks they oversee,” Warren wrote in the letter. “These conflicts of interest erode the Fed’s integrity and make a mockery of its vaunted independence.”

▪ CNBC: Debt ceiling showdown could be the first battle for the new Congress and the White House.

▪ ABC News: What to expect if Republicans take the House in the midterms: Investigations, possible impeachments.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL   

Ukraine says it is open to talks with Russia to end the war, but on Ukraine’s terms. It wants Russia to withdraw its troops, return territory and pay damages, President Volodymyr Zelensky said late Monday as the United States, which has joined with other nations to hold Russia responsible for war crimes, presses Kyiv to keep the door open to peace negotiations with Moscow. Zelensky, who is dubious the Kremlin would honor commitments to peace with its democratic neighbor, shifted his rhetorical emphasis from a harder line he took this summer in pursuit of military victory (The New York Times).

Zelensky on Tuesday condemned the Russia invasion for exacerbating the “catastrophic” effects of climate change (The Hill).

Bloomberg News: U.S. and Russia to resume nuclear talks as the war in Ukraine rages on.

“There are still many for whom climate change is just rhetoric or marketing or political ritual,” Zelensky said in a video address to COP27, the United Nations climate change conference.“They are the ones who start wars of aggression when the planet cannot afford a single gunshot because it needs global joint actions.”

Zelensky slammed Russia for creating a situation in which dozens of countries have had to resume coal-fired power generation to reduce energy prices, and blamed the war for triggering “an acute food crisis” that has stricken countries that were already enduring “the existing manifestations of climate change, catastrophic drought, large-scale floods.” 

Kyiv denied on Tuesday that it was under Western pressure to negotiate with Moscow, again insisting that talks could be held only if Russia relinquishes all occupied territory (Reuters).

North Korea denied American claims that it is shipping artillery shells and ammunition to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine, accusing the U.S. of lying on Tuesday. The denial follows dozens of weapons tests, including short-range missiles that are likely nuclear-capable and an intercontinental ballistic missile that could target the U.S. mainland. North Korea said it was testing the missiles and artillery so it could “mercilessly” strike key South Korean and U.S. targets (The Hill).

OPINION

■  The DeSantis Florida tsunami, by The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board. https://on.wsj.com/3hhK11y 

■  Spanberger again shows how to win as a centrist Democrat, by Jennifer Rubin, columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3WMgOw5

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 YOU’RE INVITED: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill has launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE. 

The House meets at noon on Thursday for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14. ​​

The Senate convenes on Thursday at 3 p.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14. 

The president will receive thePresident’s Daily Brief at 11:45 a.m. Biden is expected to speak about the results of the midterm elections and take questions at the White House.

ELSEWHERE

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

Cancer researchers think they have found an explanation for why some cancer drugs don’t always work, The Washington Post reports. The answer could lie in the gut microbiome, which consists of trillions of bacteria and other microbes. Scientists running a clinical trial at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Care Center in Houston theorize that a person’s gut microbiome may influence whether a cutting-edge cancer treatment called immunotherapy is successful in some patients. 

They found that patients with specific gut bacteria respond better to immunotherapy than those who lack them and suggest that prescribing a fiber-rich diet of fruits, vegetables, beans, nuts and whole grains might improve the odds of the treatment being effective.

“My patients who are starting treatment often ask if there’s something else they could be doing to enhance their chances of responding to immunotherapy,” Jennifer McQuade, an assistant professor and physician scientist in melanoma medical oncology told the Post. “We’re trying to test this diet with the same rigor that we use to test drugs.”

▪ SF Gate: Why this could be a nasty flu season.

▪ DCist: D.C. region sees early surge in flu cases, worrying some experts about the winter ahead.

▪ Today: Pediatric ER doctor gives glimpse into front lines of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) surge: “No space anywhere.”

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,072,943. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,504 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

THE CLOSER

And finally … 🌳 In Dr. Seuss’ famous children’s book, the Lorax speaks for the trees. But on Earth, the public is fascinated by the wood-wide web — a wispy network of fungal filaments scientists think may exist to shuttle nutrients and information through the soil and to help forests thrive. In other words, there’s a chance the trees are talking to one another. 

The theory stems from the late 1990s, when studies showed that sugars and nutrients can flow underground between trees. And in some forests, researchers traced fungi connecting the roots of different trees, challenging the conventional view of forests as merely a population of trees. Rather, trees and fungi work together on the ecological stage.

But does that mean the trees and fungi are actually talking, like some research — which is often referenced in books and TV shows — suggests? On this question, scientists are split (The New York Times).

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

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DeSantis's big night fuels prospect of 2024 face-off with Trump

As hopes for a sweeping red wave faded, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) emerged as a clear winner among Republicans on Tuesday night, fueling talk of a 2024 presidential bid with his landslide reelection victory.

DeSantis has in recent months established himself as a darling of the conservative movement, with many in the GOP ready to move on from former President Trump and citing the Florida governor as their preferred alternative.

On Tuesday, DeSantis made a strong case that he could be a viable candidate by defeating former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) by roughly 1.5 million votes and nearly 20 points, and even winning Miami-Dade County, a long-time Democratic stronghold.

While DeSantis used his victory speech to tout the outcome as a validation of his agenda and the conservative movement, his supporters had something else on their minds.

“Two more years!” the crowd chanted as DeSantis smiled, a nod to the possibility he could leave the governor’s mansion to pursue a White House bid.

Beyond his own commanding victory, DeSantis helped deliver Republican wins in House races in the state by rejecting an initial redrawn congressional map from state lawmakers and later approving one that favored Republicans more.

As a result, Rep. Al Lawson (D-Fla.) was forced to run in a district that was handily carried in 2020 by Trump. Lawson lost on Tuesday to Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Fla.). Florida Republicans also flipped the seats vacated by Crist and retiring Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.).

“Thanks to the overwhelming support of the people of Florida, we not only won an election, we have rewritten the political map,” DeSantis said at a rally with supporters on Tuesday. “Thank you for honoring us with a win for the ages.”

DeSantis’s win over Crist was a far cry from 2018, when he narrowly eked out a win over Democratic candidate Andrew Gillum. DeSantis has seen his star rise since, thanks in part to his close relationship with Trump, and later as he became the face of opposition to the Biden administration’s coronavirus measures and policies on immigration.

Tuesday’s results are likely to turbo-charge talk of a potential DeSantis vs. Trump showdown in a 2024 presidential primary. The former president has already all-but declared he plans to seek another term in the White House, scheduling an announcement for next Tuesday at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

Trump has also in recent days turned his fire on DeSantis, taking credit for the governor’s political rise and suggesting DeSantis would personally and politically take a hit if he tried to challenge Trump in a primary.

“I don’t know if he is running. I think if he runs, he could hurt himself very badly. I really believe he could hurt himself badly,” Trump told Fox News in an interview on Monday night. “I think he would be making a mistake, I think the base would not like it — I don’t think it would be good for the party.”

Trump also suggested he could share damaging information about DeSantis if he jumped into the race.

“I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering — I know more about him than anybody — other than, perhaps, his wife,” Trump said.

Trump’s attacks, though, have not landed with conservative commentators, including some who backed the former president in 2016 and 2020.

“Trump has 0 shot at 2024 general. After tonight, this isn’t up for debate. I was around in 2015 when he had ‘no chance,’ and accurately said he’d win. Threw biggest inauguration event in 2017,” tweeted Mike Cernovich, a right-wing commentator who backed Trump’s previous White House runs. “Times change or he changed or whatever. DeSantis in 2024 or accept total defeat.”

While many strategists felt Trump would try to take credit for big Republican wins on Tuesday and parlay it into an early presidential announcement, the jury is still out on how the former president’s effect on Tuesday’s elections will be viewed.

His hand-picked candidate in Ohio, J.D. Vance, was poised to win his race, but the Trump-backed Senate candidate Mehmet Oz was projected to lose to Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania.

Dan Bolduc, a New Hampshire Senate candidate who initially backed Trump’s conspiracies that the 2020 election was stolen before reversing his stance, lost his race.

In Arizona, Trump-backed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Senate candidate Blake Masters were both trailing. Republican Herschel Walker, another candidate closely tied to Trump, was locked in a tight race with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia.

“Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit,” Trump said earlier Tuesday in an interview with NewsNation. “And if they lose, I should not be blamed at all. OK? But it’ll probably be just the opposite.”

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Five early takeaways from the midterms

There were some crucial results still to come in the 2022 midterm elections as Wednesday dawned.

But some lessons were already clear after a dramatic night.

Here are the top five takeaways.

A better night than expected for Democrats

Democrats were breathing sighs of relief all night long on Tuesday, as it became apparent that the Republican “red wave” predicted by some pundits and polls had failed to materialize.

The GOP hit its high-water mark early in the night when projections from Florida showed both Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R) winning their races easily.

But it was all downhill for the GOP from there.

The most dramatic result — so far— came with Democrat John Fetterman’s defeat of Republican Mehmet Oz in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races, in Pennsylvania. 

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) appears slightly favored over former football star Herschel Walker, though it’s not yet clear if a December run-off can be avoided.

Other results across the board also buoyed Democratic hopes. 

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) retained her New Hampshire seat — one that Republicans had become increasingly bullish about in the final weeks of the campaign. 

In the House, several high-profile names on the Democrats’ endangered list held on, including Reps. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), Abigail Spanberger (Va.) and Marcy Kaptur (Ohio). 

At the gubernatorial level, races that had caused Democrats some last-minute nervousness were won comfortably by Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Democrats are, to be clear, sure to lose some House seats — and quite possibly their majority.

But this was as good a midterms’ outcome as President Biden’s party could have dared to expect. 

It’s Republicans who now face hard questions.

The GOP could only scrape out very modest gains despite powerful tailwinds in the shape of high inflation and low approval ratings for Biden.

Fetterman pulls off a huge victory

The win for Fetterman, called in the early hours of Wednesday, was a huge boost for Democrats.

His supporters had fretted as the unconventional lieutenant governor’s polling lead had been whittled away in recent weeks. 

In particular, Oz had seemed to gain traction with attacks on Fetterman’s record on crime, which includes chairing a state Board of Pardons that has recommended far more commutations during his tenure than previously.

Fetterman, who had a stroke in May, also delivered a halting performance at the sole televised debate between the two candidates in October.

But in the face of all that, the shaven-headed, hoodie-wearing Fetterman’s victory proved his brand of progressive populism could carry the day even in one of the nation’s most closely divided battlegrounds.

The victory was also vital for Democrats in terms of pure math. 

The Pennsylvania seat is being vacated by Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.

Flipping the seat gives the Democrats a buffer even if they lose one of the two competitive western states, Arizona and Nevada, where votes are still being tallied at time of writing.

DeSantis turns Florida red

No other Republican had anywhere close to as good a night as the Florida governor.

His reelection to a second term was expected. But the margin was resounding — around 20 points over his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Charlie Crist. 

To put that in context, DeSantis won the governorship four years ago by less than a single point, and former President Trump carried the Sunshine State two years ago by about three points.

The result is exactly what DeSantis’s boosters wanted in terms of proving his electability as the focus begins to shift to the 2024 presidential race. In that regard, he was also helped by the fact that Tuesday’s results added up to a mediocre outcome, at best, for former President Trump.

Some of the other contours of DeSantis’s win were especially significant, not least that he carried the populous and heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade County. 

That’s one reason why DeSantis’s boast, in his victory speech, that he and his backers had “rewritten the political map” wasn’t just hyperbole.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R) also had an easy victory over Rep. Val Demings (D), racking up a margin of approximately 17 points.

Given the scale of those two wins, it’s clear Florida is now a red state. 

The idea of the state as the nation’s biggest true battleground simply no longer applies.

GOP House majority will be narrow at best

Sometimes it’s the small details that tell the story — as when House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) took to the stage of his victory party one hour after it had originally been due to end.

As of 3:30 a.m. Eastern Time, there was still no projection from any major news organization that Republicans would take the House at all.

McCarthy evinced confidence in that outcome, telling his audience, “When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority.”

He may be proven right in due course. But the mere fact that it is still in doubt points to how disappointing a night this was for the GOP.

Just as importantly, even a narrow Republican majority would pose serious challenges for McCarthy, even if he is confirmed as Speaker. 

In that scenario, the most hardline members of the GOP conference would have very significant leverage — and they are certain to use it.

In the early hours of Wednesday, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) issued a statement asserting, “I will lead the fight to make damn sure my party does not fail.”

Two Democratic stars fade

Democrats overall may have seen results at the upper end of their expectations, but two losses hit them hard.

Both came in gubernatorial races. Stacey Abrams (D) lost to Gov. Brian Kemp (R) in Georgia and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) went down to Gov. Greg Abbott in Texas.

The two results were expected — both candidates had lagged by significant margins in polling.

But still, each candidate had been seen, not so long ago, as a bright and rising star in the Democratic Party. 

Their luster is badly dimmed now, given that Tuesday marked Abrams’s second successive loss to Kemp, and O’Rourke’s third setback after losing a 2018 Senate race to Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and abandoning an underwhelming bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

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Battle for power in Congress goes down to the wire

The fight for control of Congress was too close to call early Wednesday morning as both parties racked up high-profile wins in key battlegrounds.

Democrats appeared on track to outperform expectations in their bid to maintain their House majority, even if Republicans looked poised to flip the lower chamber. Several endangered Democratic incumbents scored key victories despite facing brutal political headwinds in the lead-up to Election Day. As of early Wednesday morning, only one Democratic incumbent, Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), had lost her reelection bid.

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats notched at least two big wins as Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) defeated her Republican challenger Don Bolduc in New Hampshire and Democrat John Fetterman dispatched a challenger from Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, giving Democrats a GOP-held Senate seat.

Yet control of both chambers of Congress remained up for grabs as election officials across the country continued to count votes.

In Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) holds a slim lead over his Republican opponent, former NFL star Herschel Walker, though he remains the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. If neither candidate wins a majority of the vote in Tuesday’s election, the race will head to a second vote on Dec. 6.

Meanwhile, in Arizona and Nevada, Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), are outpacing their Republican rivals, but their victories are still far from assured.

What was clear as of Wednesday morning, however, was that the so-called “red wave” that Republicans have forecast for months had so far failed to materialize. While the GOP still appears to be on track to at least win the five seats it needed to recapture the House majority, some in the party began to cast doubt on the notion of an electoral blowout.

“I think we pick up 10-to-15 seats in the House,” one Republican operative familiar with House races said. “It’s looking a lot more, let’s say modest, than I was hoping for.”

Republicans have long been favored to recapture the House. Not only was the party slated to pick up a handful of seats thanks to the decennial redistricting process alone, but the party in power – in this case, the Democrats – almost always loses ground in Congress in midterm elections.

And in the lead-up to Election Day, voters appeared poised to blame Democrats for the nation’s biggest challenges, including stubbornly high inflation and perceived rising crime.

Control of the Senate, on the other hand, was always expected to be a more even fight. While Republicans need to net only one seat this year to recapture the majority, they’re also defending more territory than Democrats.

At the same time, Republicans in key Senate battlegrounds nominated several untested candidates – Walker and Oz among them – who often struggled to keep pace with their Democratic rivals on the campaign trail. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) downplayed expectations for Republican Senate hopefuls earlier this year, saying that “candidate quality” could affect the outcome of their races.

Of course, Republicans still notched key wins heading into Wednesday. In Florida, once the nation’s premier swing state, Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) easily won their reelection bids and even carried Miami-Dade County, a longtime Democratic stronghold in South Florida.

And while the Senate race in Georgia remains unsettled, Gov. Brian Kemp cruised to victory over his Democratic arch-nemesis Stacey Abrams, clinching a second term in the governor’s mansion.

There are still plenty of key battlegrounds that remain too close to call. But some Democrats were breathing a sigh of relief early Wednesday as vulnerable incumbents like Reps. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) and Marcy Captur (D-Ohio) beat back fierce Republican challenges. The party also succeeded in ousting longtime Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio).

“I think we still have a fighting chance,” one Democratic strategist said in a text late Tuesday. “Can’t believe I’m saying that.”

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Fetterman defeats Oz in Pennsylvania Senate race

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) is projected to defeat Republican Mehmet Oz in the state’s marquee Senate race, delivering a crucial win for Democrats. 

NBC News and Fox News called the race.

Fetterman’s victory comes after the race became a jump ball in the final weeks, with Oz having narrowed the gap in polling after a frenetic surge in the final two months. He will replace the retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.). 

The sitting lieutenant governor, who won his first statewide office in 2018, powered his way through the Democratic primary field, winning with 58 percent support — more than double the total received by Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.), the second-place finisher who won 26 percent. 

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s victory in Pennsylvania comes after a dramatic end to the race that was narrowing in its final weeks. (Associated Press)

However, that was the last easy part of the campaign, as Fetterman suffered a stroke only days before the primary, which he says almost killed him and left him on the sidelines for months as he tried to recuperate. The Democratic nominee did not appear at a campaign rally until early August.

His health remained an issue and a constant talking point throughout the final months of the campaign. Fetterman’s campaign only agreed to a single debate that took place on Oct. 25 — weeks after mail-in ballots were sent out across the state. Nevertheless, Fetterman’s campaign declined to release his full medical records, having only released a letter from a cardiologist who examined him in June and another one from his primary care physician in mid-October. The latter report declared that Fetterman “has no work restrictions and can work full duty in public office.”

Most alarming for Democrats, Fetterman struggled mightily in the Oct. 25 debate in Harrisburg against Oz. He spoke haltingly and was unable to articulate many of his points in a coherent fashion, especially in minutelong or 15- and 30-second soundbites.

Fetterman’s performance against his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz in their October debate left many Democrats worried about the state of the race. (The Philadelphia Inquirer via AP)

However, the attacks on Oz ended up sticking with enough voters to put Fetterman over the top.

“It’s official. I will be the next U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania. We bet on the people of Pennsylvania – and you didn’t let us down and I won’t let you down. Thank you,” Fetterman wrote on Twitter.

Fetterman’s camp for months panned Oz for having not lived in the Keystone State for a long time. While hosting his show, Oz lived full time in New Jersey.

Fetterman and Democrats also attacked Oz for promoting dubious medical products and questionable views on his show. 

Those messages came while Republicans launched a steady stream of anti-Fetterman ads centered on rising crime in the Keystone State. Among Fetterman’s few responsibilities as lieutenant governor was his position atop the Board of Pardons, where he voted to give clemency to a number of convicted criminals, including for second-degree murder.

Fetterman faced a number of GOP attacks related to his dealing with crime in Pennsylvania as lieutenant governor. (Greg Nash)

Fetterman also received help from the other key race in Pennsylvania as state Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) toppled state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) in the gubernatorial race to replace the term-limited Gov. Tom Wolf (D).

The Senate run was Fetterman’s second after he unsuccessfully ran in the party primary in 2016, having finished third behind Katie McGinty and former Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.).

— Updated at 1:01 a.m.

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Democrats feel something unfamiliar: hope

Democrats were bracing for a terrible night. 

But as the clock neared midnight on the East Coast on Tuesday, Democrats were feeling something unusual for them on election night: a pleasant sense of surprise.

GOP victories in Senate races in New Hampshire and Colorado had not come to fruition, keeping Democratic hopes alive that the party could hold on to the Senate majority.

There is no guarantee that the midterms will end with such a result.

But Democrats were feeling hopeful as they watched returns trickle in from Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Fetterman was projected early Wednesday to defeat Republican Mehmet Oz, and Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker were seesawing back and forth throughout the night.

In the House, Democrats won two tight contests in Virginia districts, where incumbents Jennifer Wexton and Abigail Spanberger both won second terms.

In Rhode Island, Democrat Seth Magaziner pulled off an upset in a district seen as leaning toward the GOP. Republican Allan Fung conceded the race with 99 percent of the vote counted and the Democrat clinging to a lead of more than 3 percentage points.

In New York, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul rolled to a victory in a race that had tightened over the last few weeks. Democrats also picked up governors’ mansions in Maryland and Massachusetts. Neither was a surprise, but both were making Democrats feel good about themselves.

“I’ve been expecting a massive red wave, but that doesn’t seem to be happening — at least so far,” one top strategist said just before midnight. “It’s a nail-biter for sure, but we’re still in the game.”

Republicans, who had been bracing for a massive night, were starting to recalculate.

“Definitely not a Republican wave, that is for darn sure,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said during an appearance on NBC.

On MSNBC, anchor Nicolle Wallace, who served as a top aide to former President George W. Bush, also echoed that sentiment. 

“This is not the night Republicans thought they were going to have,” Wallace told her network colleagues.   

At the same time, Graham expressed confidence that the end result would be a GOP Senate.

“I think we’re going to be at 51, 52 when it’s all said and done in the Senate,” he said.

Democrats were filled with anxiety during the 2020 election, and that night began with some disappointments as President Biden fell behind former President Trump in various states, with Florida called relatively early.

In 2016, Democrats expecting to party at Hillary Clinton’s campaign event in New York ended up gasping as Trump pulled an upset.

Expectations for Democrats ahead of Tuesday had fallen, with some in the party beginning to point fingers over who was to blame for messaging ahead of Election Day.

That all led to a sense on Tuesday night, as Michael Bennet won reelection to the Senate from Colorado and Maggie Hassan from New Hampshire, that the party at least had a fighting chance to hold the Senate and keep a likely GOP victory in the House at a manageable number.

Even if Republican Sen. Ron Johnson held on to a lead in Wisconsin, as many expected when the day began, Democrats said they had a chance to keep the Senate with victories by Fetterman in Pennsylvania and Warnock in Georgia.

Vote tallies in a third critical race in Nevada between Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto had yet to be tabulated late Tuesday.

In Georgia, Democrats are hoping that if Walker ends up with more votes than Warnock, he will not get above 50 percent. That would force the two candidates into a Dec. 6 runoff. Some Democrats say Warnock’s chances would be stronger then, since GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, who rolled to an easy victory on Tuesday, would not be on the ballot in December.

The early results were also a boon to Biden, whose low approval ratings had led many Democrats and Republicans alike to think he and his party were in for a terrible night.

Instead, a relatively good night for Biden seemed more than possible.

Strategists predicted that Biden could emerge from the night relatively unscathed. 

“Anyone who thought this would be a bad night for Biden was mistaken,” one strategist said.

All eyes will be on Biden in the coming weeks as attention begins to focus on the 2024 presidential campaign and the current president’s plans.

The chances that Biden would run again seemed to be rising in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Updated: 1:02 a.m.

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