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Singer and reality TV star Aaron Carter dead at 34

Singer and reality television star Aaron Carter died Saturday at the age of 34, multiple outlets reported.

Carter, the younger brother of Backstreet Boys’ Nick Carter, was found dead at his home in Lancaster, Calif., according to TMZ. The tabloid was the first to report Carter’s death, which was later confirmed by The Hollywood Reporter.

The Los Angeles Fire Department responded to a 911 call claiming someone had drowned at a Lancaster address Saturday morning when officials found Carter’s body, according to KTLA.

Carter began his career opening for his brother’s boy band during their 1997 tour, according to The Hollywood Reporter. Carter released his self-titled debut album that same year at just 9 years old. 

His second album, which featured a popular cover of “I Want Candy,” went triple platinum. Carter opened again for the Backstreet Boys, as well as for Britney Spears on her “Oops!… I Did It Again” tour, following the release of the album, according to The Hollywood Reporter.

Carter also dabbled in television, with roles in “Lizzie McGuire” and “7th Heaven” and a reality series called “House of Carters” with several of his siblings.

The former child star had previously battled addiction, entering rehabilitation for the fifth time in September of this year, according to the Los Angeles Times.

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Supreme Court’s ‘sleeper’ case is major clash over Native American adoptions

The Supreme Court on Wednesday will hear a dispute over a longstanding federal law that gives preference to Native American families and tribes over non-Native couples when deciding where to place Native children in custody proceedings.

Although overshadowed by the court’s more politically charged cases, legal experts say the dispute could prove hugely consequential for Native American rights and tribal sovereignty.

“It is a sleeper case,” said Mary Kathryn Nagle, a Native rights attorney who filed an amicus brief in the case. “For Indian country, it is maybe one of the most important cases that has ever gone before the Supreme Court.”

The dispute tees up questions about whether the Indian Child Welfare Act (ICWA) unlawfully imposes race-based preferences when placing Native children, and if the law amounts to excessive federal overreach into state adoption policy.

The case plays out against the uniquely troubling history of mistreatment suffered by the country’s Indigenous population, including the once-common practice of separating Native American children from their families and tribes, which the ICWA was designed to combat.

The Supreme Court looked very different when it last confronted a major ICWA question in 2013 and counted the late Justices Antonin Scalia and Ruth Bader Ginsburg among its members. Although the court now has a solid 6-3 conservative majority, some court watchers believe the current ICWA case could produce a split among the court’s conservatives.

The complex dispute to be heard Wednesday began when three white couples who sought to adopt Indian children sued the federal government over ICWA. Later, additional plaintiffs including the state of Texas joined the case, and several Indian tribes intervened to support ICWA.

Texas and the other challengers claim, among other things, that the law’s provision giving preference to Native American adoptive parents over non-Native parents violates the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment.

“A classic example of so-called ‘benign’ discrimination, ICWA creates a government-imposed and government-funded discriminatory regime sorting children, their biological parents, and potential non-Indian adoptive parents based on race and ancestry,” Texas wrote in court papers.

“Because this Court has recognized that ‘the way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race,’ such methods violate equal protection.”

ICWA’s passage arose in response to the frequent separation of Native children from their families and communities by state child welfare and private adoption agencies.

According to research conducted around the time of ICWA’s passage in 1978, around 25 to 35 percent of all Native children were removed from their families and placed either into foster homes or with adoptive families or other institutions. Among Indian children in foster care, roughly 85 percent were in non-Native homes, according to a 1969 survey of 16 states.

“This law was passed against a very disturbing and tragic history of the wholesale removal of Indian children from families to assimilate them into white culture based on prejudice about Indian culture,” said frequent Supreme Court litigator Lisa Blatt at a recent legal forum. Blatt argued the 2013 ICWA case on behalf of a non-Native adoptive couple. 

“It started with the Bureau of Indian Affairs putting all these kids in horrendous boarding schools, and then it then transitioned to the ‘60s and ‘70s to state custody removal proceedings,” said Blatt, a partner at the law firm Williams & Connolly.

In practice, ICWA requires that Indian children be placed with members of their extended family or tribe, or other Native American families before outside candidates may be considered.

Ben Kappelman, a partner at the law firm Dorsey & Whitney who has provided pro bono services to a Minnesota Indian tribe in child welfare proceedings, touted the law as a success.

“ICWA, considered the gold standard in child welfare policy, establishes priority for caregivers of Native American children whose parents cannot care for them,” he said.

Supporters of the law say the ugly history that led up to its enactment underscores the enduring need for protections for Indian children and families’ culture.

“ICWA is based on a simple idea: When Indian children can stay with their families and communities, Tribes and children alike are better off,” the tribes wrote in court papers. “By implementing that simple idea, ICWA ‘promotes the stability and security of Indian tribes and families’ and ‘protects the best interests of Indian children.’”

The Justice Department, on behalf of the Biden administration, is arguing in support of ICWA.

The case has the potential to create a split among the court’s conservatives, some experts say. Blatt, of the firm Williams & Connolly, noted that Justice Neil Gorsuch, a Trump appointee, has “consistently ruled” in favor of tribal rights and law.

“I think the assumption is that the United States that’s defending the law with the support of the tribes, has at least four votes, assuming they have Gorsuch’s vote,” she said. “And that leaves the challengers needing to pick up both Justice [Brett] Kavanaugh and Justice [Amy Coney] Barrett.”

A decision in the cases, Haaland v. Brackeen, is expected by this summer.

Source: TEST FEED1

Time is running out for House to pass permanent daylight saving bill

Time is running out for the House to pass legislation that would make daylight saving time permanent in the U.S., after the Senate shocked the nation earlier this year and unanimously approved the measure. 

The bill, titled the Sunshine Protection Act, skated under the radar for months following Senate passage, but it is back in the spotlight this weekend as Americans prepare to “fall back” and change their clocks to standard time until March, taking an hour of daylight away from winter mornings. 

Lawmakers have just 17 legislative days — the period known as the lame-duck session — remaining to pass the bill and send it to President Biden’s desk before the current Congress comes to a close, and both chambers are forced to reset the clock and reconsider the controversial change. 

But the likelihood of lawmakers pushing the bill over the finish line in the final stretch is dimming. 

“I wouldn’t expect it to happen this time,” Rep. Kewisi Mfume (D-Md.), who is in the process of becoming a co-sponsor of the bill, told The Hill. “My gut sense tells me that there are going to be a number of other things that happen, depending on which party dominates the election.” 

The Senate sent shockwaves throughout the country in March when the chamber approved the Sunshine Protection Act by unanimous consent, a fast-track procedure that allows bills to pass if all members are on board and no objections are made. Buzzfeed News, however, reported that some Senators were surprised to learn that the measure had passed through the special process. 

The legislation, which has bipartisan sponsorship in both chambers, would do away with the biannual changing of the clocks and make daylight saving time the law of the land all year round. 

Under current regulations, the sun is scheduled to rise in New York at 7:16 a.m. on Dec. 21, the winter solstice, which is the shortest day of the year. But under the Sunshine Protection Act, New Yorkers would see the sun rise at 8:16 a.m. that day. 

The sunset would also be kicked back. Empire State residents are scheduled to see the sunset at 4:31 p.m. on Dec. 31. With the Sunshine Protection Act, however, sunset would be pushed back to 5:31 p.m. 

Americans are overwhelmingly in favor of ditching the ritual of changing the clocks. A Monmouth University poll conducted in March found that 61 percent of respondents want to do away with the practice, while 31 percent are in favor of maintaining the status quo. 

But there are disagreements about deciding what the law of the land should be: daylight saving time or standard time. That, in part, is holding the House back from advancing the Sunshine Protection Act. 

“We haven’t been able to find consensus in the House on this yet,” Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.), the chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, told The Hill in a statement.  

“There are a broad variety of opinions about whether to keep the status quo, to move to a permanent time, and if so, what time that should be. These opinions don’t break down by party, but instead by region,” he added. 

Forty-four percent of respondents in the Monmouth University poll said they would prefer year-round daylight saving time, compared to 13 percent who favor standard time. 

“I have received calls from constituents who prefer permanent standard time because they have safety concerns for children who have to wait too long in the dark during winter for the school bus, and I have heard from constituents and businesses who prefer permanent daylight saving time because they prefer longer daylight hours,” Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), who chairs the Energy and Commerce subcommittee that held a hearing on daylight saving time in February, told The Hill in a statement. 

A congressional aide working on the issue told The Hill that there are “so many different interests” clocking in their opinions, making it more difficult to reach a consensus. 

The Orthodox Jewish community, for example, “wants to make sure they’re able to get in their morning prayer and then still be able to get to work in reasonable time,” while some businesses “want to make sure that their customers can enjoy the evening hours in the daylight on a patio,” the aide, who requested anonymity to discuss the deliberations, said. 

“So it’s really all different interests,” the aide added. “It’s everyday people sharing what their quality of life would be like depending on which way this ruling goes.” 

“The Energy and Commerce Committee, which has jurisdiction over time, is continuing to review and solicit feedback from Americans and stakeholders about making daylight saving time permanent,” a spokesperson for Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.), the top Republican on the committee, told The Hill in a statement. “Leader Rodgers hopes that bipartisan work will continue.” 

In the past half-decade, at least 19 states have passed legislation or approved resolutions that would make daylight saving time the norm all year round, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Those measures, however, cannot be enacted because federal law does not mandate permanent daylight saving time. 

Hawaii and Arizona only observe standard time. 

Last month, Mexico’s Senate voted to eliminate daylight saving time for the majority of the country, nixing the practice of changing the clocks twice a year. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is expected to sign the measure. 

Pallone, however, is hesitant to make the hasty change, despite its national and international support and campaigns from the longtime lobbying effort — which is championed by business groups, including golf organizations. He pointed to the episode nearly 50 years ago when the U.S. temporarily took away daylight saving time. 

“We don’t want to make a hasty change and then have it reversed several years later after public opinion turns against it — which is exactly what happened in the early 1970s,” the chairman said. 

In 1974, former President Nixon signed a bill to make daylight saving time permanent for two years in an effort to combat the gas shortage. The move, however, was so disliked by the public that nine months later, former President Ford enacted legislation that restored the twice-a-year tradition. 

Almost a half-decade later, with the bill through one chamber, key lawmakers are advocating for the change to get another chance. 

“We need a uniform approach, I think, in my opinion, which is why I support the bill to do away with it,” Mfume said. 

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the sponsor of the Senate version of the bill, called ending the ritual of changing the clocks “a commonsense issue.” 

“States all around the country are passing laws to make DST permanent, but Washington, D.C. needs to act. I don’t know why the House refuses to pass this bill — it seems like they are rarely in session — but I will keep pushing to make this a reality,” he added, making a dig at the other chamber. 

Congressman Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a co-sponsor of the House bill, said the legislation is “low-hanging fruit for both sides.” 

“I think it’s a popular bill and I hope in the lame-duck session [the] Speaker will bring it forward,” he added. 

What the new status quo would become remains unknown. And key players are keenly aware that regardless of which decision the chamber makes, some individuals will be in store for a cranky wake-up call. 

“Half the country is going to be upset no matter which way we go on this issue,” the aide said. “And so we’re really trying to reach a consensus, but I can tell you those talks are still ongoing as we speak right now.” 

Source: TEST FEED1

Here are the 10 biggest donors in the midterm elections

Rich Americans spent big this midterm season to impact down-ballot races for their candidates of choice.  

The 2022 midterm election cycle has seen a boom in spending in the lead-up to Election Day. Research group OpenSecrets estimates that federal election spending increased by nearly $2 billion compared to 2018.  

Even more eye-popping, 10 wealthy individuals poured $540 million combined into this year’s elections, according to campaign finance data from OpenSecrets. 

These mega-donors are giving most of their money to outside groups such as super PACs that can raise and spend unlimited sums on election ads.  

Roughly 62 percent of their donations boosted Republicans, who have received far more support than Democrats from big money groups leading up to November, a reversal from recent elections where wealthy donors favored Democrats.  

Here are the 10 largest donors in the midterms, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission filings compiled by OpenSecrets: 

George Soros  

Total donations: $128.5M 

Affiliation: Democrat 

Soros, a Hungarian-born Holocaust survivor who made his fortune as a hedge fund manager, has donated $128.5 million to his own outside group, Democracy PAC, which then doled out millions of dollars to several super PACs supporting Democratic candidates.  

His group donated $10.5 million to Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC controlled by Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). It also gave $1 million to J Street Action Fund, a pro-Israel group that backs Democrats, and Planned Parenthood’s super PAC. If the group makes other donations, they won’t be revealed until after the election.  

Soros has long been a target of right-wing attacks and conspiracy theories over his prolific donations to Democrats. His donations to support democracy in Hungary drew attacks from the country’s authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán that included antisemitic tropes.  

Richard Uihlein  

Total donations: $80.7M 

Affiliation: Republican 

Uihlein is the co-founder of shipping giant Uline, one of the nation’s largest privately owned companies. The Illinois-based billionaire has emerged as a major force for Republicans in recent elections, and the 2022 election cycle marks his highest donation total. 

He’s the top donor to Club for Growth, one of the most powerful conservative super PACs, giving $23.2 million. Uihlein also gave $3.5 million to a group backing Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), continuing his longstanding efforts to influence key Wisconsin races.  

Kenneth Griffin  

Total donations: $68.6M 

Affiliation: Republican 

Griffin, the CEO of Miami-based hedge fund Citadel, is one of the wealthiest mega-donors, with an estimated net worth of $31 billion, according to Forbes. 

He gave $18.5 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC controlled by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), making him the top individual donor to the group that is backing dozens of House GOP challengers. He gave another $10 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which is affiliated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). 

Last year, “meme stock” traders accused Citadel of colluding with trading platform Robinhood to halt trading of GameStop stock. Griffin denied that his firm was involved in the decision during a congressional hearing on the issue and lawsuits against Citadel were dismissed.

Jeff Yass  

Total donations: $47.3M 

Affiliation: Republican 

Yass is the billionaire founder of quantitative trading firm Susquehanna International Group. He’s a longtime GOP donor who backs candidates favoring minimal taxes and government regulation and is vice chair of the libertarian Cato Institute’s board.   

Yass donated $15 million to the School Freedom Fund, accounting for the vast majority of the Club for Growth-aligned group’s fundraising. The super PAC aired ads attacking Democratic candidates over COVID-19 school closures and “critical race theory” and waded into GOP primaries.  

He donated $5 million to a super PAC supporting Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-Ky.) reelection and gave $1.9 million in bitcoin to Crypto Freedom PAC, a pro-crypto group that is backing GOP Senate hopeful Blake Masters in Arizona.   

Timothy Mellon   

Total donations: $40M 

Affiliation: Republican 

Mellon, a longtime GOP mega-donor, is the grandson of banking tycoon Andrew Mellon and was chairman of a transportation firm that was bought by freight rail giant CSX this year.  

The Wyoming-based billionaire donated $10 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund. He gave another $5 million to the Sentinel Action Fund, a super PAC aligned with the Heritage Foundation’s action fund that spent most of its money on ads attacking Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). 

A major supporter of former President Trump and his efforts to tighten immigration laws, Mellon received attention for donating $53 million to Texas’s border wall fund last year.  

Sam Bankman-Fried  

Total donations: $39.8M 

Affiliation: Democrat 

Bankman-Fried, the founder and CEO of crypto exchange FTX, is a new addition to the list of top donors.  

The billionaire crypto executive sent most of his donations — $28 million — to his Protect Our Future PAC, a super PAC focused on preventing the next pandemic that mostly backed Democrats facing progressives in primaries.  

That’s a fraction of the $1 billion total Bankman-Fried previously said he would spend to support Democratic candidates in the midterms and the 2024 election. He called his previous statement a “dumb quote” in an interview with Politico earlier this month, arguing that more donations can only go so far in the general election. 

“At some point, when you’ve given your message to voters, there’s just not a whole lot more you can do,” Bankman-Fried said.  

Fred Eychaner  

Total donations: $35.8M 

Affiliation: Democrat 

Eychaner, a longtime Democratic mega-donor and supporter of LGBT causes, runs Newsweb Corporation, which owns several radio stations and newspapers in the Chicago area.  

He’s the top donor to Democrats’ House Majority PAC. He gave $9 million to House Majority PAC and donated another $8 million to Senate Majority PAC. Eychaner consistently gives the maximum allowed donation to the Democratic National Committee and Democrats’ other campaign committees. 

Stephen Schwarzman  

Total donations: $35.5M 

Affiliation: Republican 

Schwarzman runs the Blackstone Group, one of the world’s largest private equity firms.  

The New York City billionaire donated $10 million to both the Senate Leadership Fund and the Congressional Leadership Fund, providing a huge boost to Republicans’ bid to retake control of Congress. He’s been a top 10 donor in each of the last three elections.  

Peter Thiel  

Total donations: $32.6M 

Affiliation: Republican 

Thiel, who co-founded PayPal and currently runs data analytics firm Palantir Technologies, has emerged as a major GOP booster.   

Thiel is joining the list of top donors for the first time, primarily placing his bets on two GOP Senate hopefuls. He gave $15 million to a super PAC supporting Arizona’s Blake Masters, a former executive at Thiel’s firm, and another $15 million to a super PAC supporting J.D. Vance in Ohio.  

Larry Ellison  

Total donations: $31M 

Affiliation: Republican 

With an estimated net worth of nearly $100 billion, according to Forbes, Ellison is by far the wealthiest individual on this list.  

The Oracle Corp. chairman donated $20 million to the Opportunity Matters Fund, a super PAC aligned with Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) that is backing GOP candidates in tight Senate races. 

— Updated at 2:00 p.m.

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Final rankings: The seven Senate seats most likely to flip

Voters head to the polls in a matter of days and only one thing is for certain: The battle for the Senate is anyone’s ballgame as both sides look to sprint through the finish line with the majority at stake. 

The political winds are firmly at the backs of Republicans, but Democrats are continuing to count on a number of incumbent senators, buoyed by big money fundraising operations, to keep hold of the upper chamber. 

The late stages of the race have also brought some high-wattage politicos out to play as commanders in chief, past and present, are appearing in states across the board with the hope of driving voters to the ballot box. 

After a hectic week of campaigning and for the final time this season, here’s a look at the seven Senate seats most likely to flip next week:

Nevada 

If Republicans are going to retake the Senate, a key first step would be to deny Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) in her reelection bid against former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R). 

For months, the fight for the Battle Born State has been close, and that hasn’t changed. But some surveys in the past week have shown Laxalt opening up an advantage over the incumbent Democrat, headlined by an Emerson College-The Hill poll showing the Republican up by 5 percentage points. 

Those numbers have Republicans feeling perhaps more confident about Nevada than any other battleground.

Nevertheless, Democrats still believe a Cortez Masto win is well within reach. 

“It’s going to be really close. Really, really tight. I think there’s some reason for optimism in early voting numbers,” said one Democratic operative with Nevada ties, noting this is the first midterm contest where universal mail-in voting has been employed in the state. 

“The steady drumbeat of grassroots events [and] surrogates coming into Nevada have helped draw a lot of interest,” the operative continued, referring to former President Obama’s visit to Las Vegas on Tuesday. “There’s still cautious optimism that we can grind out a win. … This race is nowhere near done.”

A win for Laxalt would likely mean a big night for the GOP in the state, as Republican gubernatorial nominee Joe Lombardo is running close polling-wise in his push to unseat Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D).

Pennsylvania 

Republican Mehmet Oz has closed the gap between him and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), but the contest remains a close call as the hourglass winds down on election season. 

The situation has changed completely for Fetterman in recent months. After leading or being tied in survey after survey dating back to the May primary, multiple recent polls now show him behind his Republican challenger. Accordingly, the RealClearPolitics average of polls for the first time on Thursday has the former television doctor ahead.

The latest developments come a little more than a week after the campaign’s lone debate proved difficult for Fetterman, who struggled to string together words and sentences due to an auditory processing issue caused by the stroke he suffered in May. 

But political prognosticators caution that this is still anyone’s race. 

“It’s close. There’s overwhelming evidence it’s quite close. Anybody who’s telling you they can clearly see this has broken one way or another, they’re probably exaggerating. … A lot of currents are pushing up against one another,” said Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College. 

The nip-tuck nature of the race has brought heavyweights on both sides to the state in the final days. Oz campaigned alongside former President Trump in Latrobe, Pa., on Saturday, while President Biden and Obama stumped for Fetterman in Philadelphia (in addition to an Obama appearance in Pittsburgh). 

While Republicans feel good about Oz’s chances, the governor’s race — featuring state Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) and state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) — could threaten the GOP nominee’s chances. Shapiro is the heavy favorite, and if his margin of victory over Mastriano reaches double digits, that could spell trouble for Oz. 

“He’s been a terrible candidate,” said Rob Gleason, the former chairman of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, about Mastriano. “He can’t raise any money. If he gets 40 percent, that’s a victory for Trump.”

Georgia

The nation’s preeminent toss-up contest on the 2022 map is doing exactly what everyone thought it would: giving both sides agita, especially over the possibility that a winner in the race — and of overall Senate control — might not be ultimately known until early December. 

The race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Republican Herschel Walker is airtight with days to go. According to the latest RealClearPolitics average of surveys, Walker leads by less than half a percentage point over Warnock. 

However, operatives on both sides of the aisle are expecting that Tuesday will not be the final word on the matter, with a runoff slated for Dec. 6 the most likely scenario. If that takes place, all bets are off.

“A whole new ballgame,” one GOP operative involved in Senate races told The Hill. “Where the Senate majority sits at the time is another factor. Really hard to predict with any real certainty what the shape of that runoff might look like.” 

Another complicating factor for Republicans is that Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is likely to win handily over Democrat Stacey Abrams on Tuesday, providing needed coattails for Walker in the Atlanta suburbs. In a runoff, though, Kemp wouldn’t be on the ballot, making things thornier for the former University of Georgia star running back. 

However, national Democrats are indicating that the race continues to give them headaches.

“The state where we’re going downhill is Georgia,” Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) told President Biden on the tarmac in Syracuse, N.Y., on Oct. 27. “It’s hard to believe that they will go for Herschel Walker.”

New Hampshire

If there’s a Republican wave on Tuesday and the party secures Democratic-held seats beyond those in Nevada and Georgia, look for New Hampshire to be next in line.

Republicans have played footsie with the Granite State in recent months as they have wondered whether Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) could be defeated without what the party considered a top-tier recruit in the race, having missed out on convincing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) to launch a bid. 

But Republican Don Bolduc has narrowed the gap against her.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a group run by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), spent $16 million in the state from early September until Oct. 24, when the group canceled nearly $6 million in ads and redirected it to Pennsylvania. This left the Senate GOP campaign arm and others to fill part of the gap.

In short, Republicans view Pennsylvania (along with Georgia and Nevada) as crucial, while New Hampshire would be the cherry on the sundae. For Democrats, it’s a must-win, but one in which they remain confident.

“Everything points to a close outcome, but Hassan has always been leading this race, and she’ll win on Tuesday. Granite Staters take their elections seriously and as Gov. Sununu said, Don Bolduc is ‘conspiracy theorist’ who simply can’t pull together a winning coalition,” one Democratic operative involved in Senate races said. 

“If I’m wrong, we’re in for a long night and a tough two years,” the operative added.

According to the latest Emerson College survey, Hassan leads Bolduc by 4 percentage points. Crucially, she also leads with independent voters, taking 50 percent to only 40 percent for the GOP nominee. 

Arizona 

For months, the question about the Arizona Senate race centered on how big a victory Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) was going to score over Republican Blake Masters.

Now it’s whether Kelly will simply win at all.

The change came after a late and hard charge by Masters and national Republicans that has put him within striking distance of defeating Kelly, who is still considered the best Democratic incumbent on the Senate map this cycle.

Masters has seen a number of things move in his direction over the past month. Most notably, the national environment and economic state of the country is buoying Republicans everywhere, and he is chief among them. In addition to Arizona being one of the top swing states on the map, meaning GOP voters were likely to start coming home closer to Election Day, Masters is also the main beneficiary of Republican Kari Lake’s surge in the governor’s race against state Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D).

What matters for Masters and Republicans is the margin of Lake’s potential victory. If it’s narrow, advantage Kelly. But if it’s sizable, look out. 

“If Kari Lake wins by 4 [percentage points], then it’s really hard for Masters not to win. But I’m not sure what she actually wins by,” one GOP operative said.  

Adding to the Masters momentum, Libertarian candidate Marc Victor dropped out early in the week and endorsed the GOP nominee, giving him a potential added boost. However, more than 1.3 million voters have returned their ballots as of Friday afternoon, limiting the potential impact of the maneuver. 

Wisconsin

Six years ago, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) secured reelection by coming from behind in the final week of the race to nab what was considered an improbable victory. 

The situation has changed drastically for the GOP this time around, however. Dating back to mid-September, the two-term incumbent Republican has led Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) or been tied in every single poll, allowing the party to breathe a little easier. The advantage is improbable to some in the party. 

“I would have laughed,” one Wisconsin-based GOP operative said. “Wisconsin’s always been a toss-up state. It’s always been close. Democrats set their sights on taking out Ron Johnson early in the cycle. … They emptied the tank and they went incredibly hard at him.”

Still, Wisconsin remains seen as a battleground.

According to the latest RealClearPolitics average, Johnson leads Barnes by a 3.2-percentage point margin. Despite the polling lead, political pundits in the state are still expecting a tight race, just as most races have been in the Badger State dating back to that 2016 victory, which also saw Trump defeat Hillary Clinton. 

“This is purely a toss-up race at this point,” said Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School poll, which showed Johnson with a 2-percentage point lead — having led by 6 percentage points in the school’s survey in early October. “If there was a little bit of a widening of the gap last time, there’s now a tightening of the gap.”

Ohio 

Easily, the least likely of these seven seats to switch hands is in the Buckeye State, where Republican J.D. Vance holds a steady lead over Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who is making a last-minute play for moderate GOP voters and independents to give him a shot on Tuesday.

According to the latest Emerson College survey, Vance leads Ryan by 8 percentage points (51 percent to 43 percent), with that gap having grown since October when Vance led by a single point (46 percent to 45 percent). The winner will replace Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who is retiring after two terms in office. 

Vance has expanded his lead for a number of reasons, headlined by the national environment that’s trending Republican and the darkening red hue Ohio has taken on over the past six years since Trump’s 2016 victory. Simply, Ohio is not the swing state it was as recently as 2012 when Obama carried the state. 

However, the impact of the Ohio race will likely be felt in other parts of the map. By the end of June, Vance had only $600,000 in cash on hand and he has, in total, only posted $6.9 million — a light amount for a Senate candidate, especially compared to the $44 million brought in by Ryan. That forced Senate Leadership Fund to engage in the race to the tune of $32 million to ensure he would be financially competitive, effectively taking away money that could have been potentially spent in Arizona or New Hampshire.

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The Hill's Election Central: Live results from Senate, House & Governor races

Check below for The Hill’s latest coverage of the 2022 midterm elections and live updated results as polls close for Senate, House, Governor and key ballot initiatives across the nation. You can also follow along at The Hill’s live blog, where our news team highlights election news as it happens.

Jump to: Senate | House | Governor

Senate results and latest news

House results and latest news

Governor results and latest news

Major ballot initiative results and latest news

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Biden rails against Republicans while stumping in Florida

President Biden on Tuesday railed against Republicans and their proposed policies while stumping in Florida for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist and Senate candidate Rep. Val Demings (D).

Crist is running to unseat Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Demings is running to unseat Sen. Marco Rubio (R).

“Kevin McCarthy, he’s the leader of Republicans in the House of Representatives,” Biden said, in remarks at Florida Memorial University in Miami Gardens. “The Republicans have, they’re saying it out loud now, they’re saying what they want to do. Thank God for small favors.”

He mentioned that Republicans want to end his administration’s policy that allows Medicare to negotiate drug prices and they want to repeal the Obama-era Affordable Care Act. He also took aim at Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), pointing to Scott’s agenda, released earlier this year, that included a proposal to sunset government programs every five years, meaning lawmakers would need to vote to extend Medicare and Social Security.

“Folks, this ain’t your father’s Republican Party. This is a different breed of cat,” Biden said.

“Their extremism isn’t limited to social programs and the economy. They’re coming after your right to vote and who gets to count the votes. For real, you’ve got 350 or so election deniers on the ballot, on the Republican ticket. This is really deadly earnest, man” he added.

His speech comes just a week before Election Day, which Biden called the most important election of our lifetime.

“Imagine Chief Demings on the beat in the United States Senate. I can hardly wait,” Biden said, referring to Demings’s former role as Orlando chief of police. “Folks, we need to elect Charlie and Val, we need to elect Democrats up and down the ballot.”

He rattled off Democratic accomplishments, like capping the price of insulin, lowering the cost of hearing aids, tax credits for weatherizing homes or buying electric vehicles, and his plan announced last week to eliminate so-called junk fees and require airlines to disclose all fees upfront.

He also mentioned that the bipartisan infrastructure law would provide a $16 million grant to the Port of Miami, taking aim at DeSantis and Rubio.

“I’m sure your governor will take credit for somewhere along the line,” he said. “Val Demings voted for it, her opponent voted against it.”

He also touted his student loan forgiveness plan, which is set to forgive up to $10,000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers earning under $125,000 and as much as $20,000 for borrowers who received Pell Grants.

“What have Republicans done about this? Well guess what, they moaned and groaned about it. And they challenged it in court, which they’re going to lose,” he said. “I don’t want to hear it from MAGA Republicans who sit in Congress.”

Crist and Demings spoke before Biden, as well as actors Jennifer Lewis and Keegan-Michael Key.

Both Crist and Demings face an uphill fight to unseat their rivals. DeSantis has a comfortable lead over Crist and was leading by 14 points in a poll released last week. Rubio is also holding his edge over Demings and a poll last month showed him with 47 percent in the race, compared to Demings at 41 percent.

Biden spoke earlier on Tuesday evening at a reception in Golden Beach, Fla., for Crist, where he described DeSantis as “Donald Trump incarnate.”

DeSantis could be a potential 2024 rival for Biden and the two have had an adversarial relationship, clashing over DeSantis outlawing mask mandates in schools, passing legislation to restrict discussion of sexual orientation, and sending migrants to Democratic areas.

Source: TEST FEED1

The seven people with most at stake in the midterms

Tuesday’s midterm elections will have huge implications for President Biden, his party and the Republicans who hope to replace him in the White House in the 2024 election.

The careers of some of the most senior members of Congress will also be on the line.

Here are the seven people who will have the most at stake as the results come in.

President Biden

It’s hard to overstate the importance of the midterm results for the president.

If Democrats lose control of the House — an outcome that is highly probable — Biden will be hamstrung for the final two years of his first term, at least when it comes to domestic policy. 

It’s also virtually certain that he, his administration and his family — in particular, his son Hunter — will face GOP-led investigations. Whether or not actual wrongdoing is discovered, those probes could be personally embarrassing and politically arduous.

Then there’s the impact on Biden’s broader political standing to consider.

If Democrats keep their House losses modest and retain control of the Senate, Biden can push forward in seeking a second term.

But if his party suffers heavy defeats, the whisperings about whether the president should step aside after a single term will grow much louder. 

Even if Biden were to choose to soldier on in that scenario, the chances of a primary challenge would rise exponentially. 

Former President Trump

Trump has involved himself in the midterms from the start, making a huge number of endorsements in Republican primaries. In most cases, his backing helped lift his chosen candidate to victory.

But Tuesday brings a moment of truth as the former president and his party mull the possibility of him running again in 2024.

The fate of Trump-backed candidates in tight races will be crucial. Senate candidates Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker in Georgia and J.D. Vance in Ohio, as well as two Arizona candidates — Kari Lake for governor and Blake Masters for Senate — will be the most closely watched of all. 

If most or all of those candidates win, it will be a powerful rebuttal to the argument that Trump and Trumpism has limited or fading appeal.

On the other hand, if the Trump-backed candidates lose, it is bound to fuel doubts, even within the GOP, about his belligerent and polarizing approach.

Such an outcome would also prove that one of Trump’s main internal foes, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), was on solid ground when he fretted about “candidate quality” back in August.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

DeSantis is widely seen as the only Republican who has a chance of defeating Trump for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

DeSantis’s backers contend that he has many of the same right-wing populist instincts as Trump but brings less of the self-defeating chaos to the table.

DeSantis’s ‘electability’ argument is likely to grow stronger on Tuesday, when the Florida governor is expected to win reelection comfortably over his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Charlie Crist.

In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average on Tuesday, DeSantis led Crist by 12.3 percentage points.

If the actual result is close to that margin, it will be very impressive in a state that is still a battleground, albeit a Republican-leaning one. 

Trump defeated Biden in the Sunshine State by just three points in 2020, and DeSantis himself edged out Democrat Andrew Gillum by less than a point in his first gubernatorial race in 2018.

Conversely, an unexpectedly strong performance by Crist would put a dent in the Florida governor’s 2024 hopes.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D)

For California’s governor, Tuesday isn’t really about his own race.

There is no serious doubt that Newsom will win a second term to lead the Golden State. Most polls give him a lead of about 20 points.

But results elsewhere could be crucial for his future ambitions.

Newsom has been the boldest Democrat in putting his name in the frame as a potential alternative to Biden in 2024.

He has run TV ads on the other side of the country, dinging DeSantis in Florida — a move that seemed mainly designed to spur buzz and media speculation.

He has been critical of the national party’s messaging and overall approach, asking rhetorically during a September appearance in Texas, “Where are we? Where are we organizing, bottom up, a compelling alternative narrative? Where are we going on the offense every single day?”

And although he contends he’s not running for president, it’s hard to find many Democrats who believe him — especially if Biden falters.

On the other hand, an unexpectedly strong night for Democrats on Tuesday could close the window of opportunity for Newsom.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)

Pelosi has led House Democrats for almost 20 years, but her epic run will likely come to an end soon if the party suffers a significant defeat on Tuesday.

Pelosi is a formidable political operator but, at 82, it seems highly doubtful she would try to hold on to her leadership position in the hope of reclaiming the Speaker’s gavel in 2024 or beyond.

Plenty of House Democrats are already restless about a leadership team that is rounded out by 83-year-old Steny Hoyer (Md.) as Majority Leader and 82-year-old James Clyburn (S.C.) as Majority Whip.

All that being said, it’s perilous to ever count Pelosi out.

If Democrats were to surprise everyone by holding on to the House, or even limiting the GOP to a tiny majority, all bets would be off.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.)

The Florida senator is sometimes mentioned as a potential 2024 presidential candidate, but he has a lot riding on the Senate results on Tuesday for other reasons too.

Scott is head of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

More importantly, a proposal he outlined back in February has been seized on by Democrats.

One aspect of Scott’s 11-point plan proved more politically toxic than any other — the proposal that all federal legislation would “sunset” after five years, meaning that it would lapse unless it were reauthorized.

The provision would apply to Social Security and Medicare, enormously popular programs on which seniors depend.

Democrats, including Biden and former President Obama, have hit the point hard on the campaign trail, suggesting the GOP would decimate the programs.

McConnell sprinted away from Scott’s plan almost as soon as it was announced.

If Senate Republicans have a disappointing night, some of the blame will accrue to Scott.

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.)

Cheney, Trump’s most ardent Republican foe on Capitol Hill, has no election to fight. She was defeated in a landslide by pro-Trump challenger Harriet Hageman in an August primary.

Cheney’s alienation from today’s GOP is all but complete — in recent weeks, she has even endorsed some Democratic candidates, including Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio) for Senate and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) for re-election to the House.

It’s a very safe bet that Cheney will be watching closely for how the most pro-Trump candidates fare — especially those who have echoed the former president’s false claims of election fraud, like Arizona’s Lake.

The GOP writ large isn’t going to come around to Cheney’s point of view anytime soon. But she would likely take some measure of satisfaction if the MAGA wing had a bad night.

If the results go the other way, it will just be one more sign that she was on the losing side in the GOP’s civil war.

Source: TEST FEED1

Biden calls DeSantis 'Trump incarnate'

President Biden on Tuesday described Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), a potential 2024 rival, as “Donald Trump incarnate” while stumping for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist.

“Charlie is running against Donald Trump incarnate. This guy doesn’t fit any of the categories I talked about. The way he deals, the way he denies,” Biden said at a fundraiser for Crist in Golden Beach, Fla.

Biden praised Crist for his “integrity and intelligence” and mentioned multiple times the outsized role Florida will play in the country’s midterm elections next week.

“The rest of the world is looking at us, Charlie. They’re looking at us,” he said. “It is really important that a state the size of Florida … comes down on the right side of history.”

The president traveled to Florida on Tuesday to deliver remarks warning that Republicans would try to take away Social Security and Medicare benefits and drive up the cost of living with their policies if they retake control of Congress. He also was attending fundraisers for Crist and Florida Senate candidate and Rep. Val Demings (D), who is trying to unseat Sen. Marco Rubio (R).

The Biden White House has had an adversarial relationship with DeSantis for months, with the two sides clashing over the governor outlawing mask mandates in schools, passing legislation to restrict discussion of sexual orientation in the classroom and sending migrants to Democratic areas via private planes.

The president last visited Florida to tour damage from Hurricane Ian in October, when he appeared alongside DeSantis and commended his response to the storm.

DeSantis is expected to win reelection next week, with multiple polls in recent weeks showing him with a comfortable lead over Crist, a former governor and congressman.

DeSantis is widely seen as a potential Republican presidential candidate for 2024, and he could pose a formidable challenge to former President Trump in a primary. DeSantis consistently polls as a top alternative to Trump among GOP voters, and some strategists believe he could attract Trump’s supporters in a primary without carrying the baggage of multiple investigations.

An ABC News-Ipsos poll published late last month found that 72 percent of registered Republicans believe that DeSantis should have a great or good deal of influence in the future direction of the GOP, while 64 percent of respondents said the same of Trump.

Source: TEST FEED1