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Hochul widens lead over Zeldin in New York governor's race: poll
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New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D) lead over her Republican challenger, Rep. Lee Zeldin, is widening in the state’s gubernatorial race one week from the midterms, according to a new poll.
An Emerson College Polling-Pix11-The Hill survey released on Tuesday found 52 percent of very likely voters supported Hochul compared to 44 percent for Zeldin. Three percent said they were undecided.
When the poll factored in who undecided voters said they were leaning toward, Zeldin’s support rose to 45 percent, while Hochul’s rose to 54 percent.
Polling had shown the gubernatorial race in the deep-blue state tightening in recent weeks. Hochul has leaned into issues like abortion, Zeldin’s vote to overturn the 2020 election results and gun safety. Meanwhile, the Republican has featured crime prominently in his campaign.
An Emerson College Polling-Pix11-The Hill survey released last week, before a debate between Hochul and Zeldin, showed Hochul leading 50-44 percent.
Asked in the latest poll whether last week’s debate between the two changed their opinions, 26 percent it improved their view of Hochul, 35 percent said it worsened their opinion and 39 percent said it made no difference.
Meanwhile, 41 percent of respondents said the debate improved their opinion of Zeldin, 25 percent said it worsened their view and 34 percent said it made no difference.
“Hochul leads 70% to 26% among voters who said the debate makes no difference on their vote,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. He also noted that “male voters in New York are evenly split: 48% support Zeldin and 48% Hochul. Women voters are Hochul’s strong suit, she leads Zeldin by 16 points, 56% to 40%.”
The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report has rated the race as “likely Democrat.”
The Emerson College Polling-Pix11-The Hill New York poll surveyed 1,000 very likely voters from Oct. 28 to Oct. 31. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Source: TEST FEED1
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Liz Cheney backs Democrat Tim Ryan in Ohio Senate race
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Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) on Tuesday endorsed Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan over Republican J.D. Vance in the Ohio Senate race, the latest sign of just how far the onetime member of House GOP leadership has fallen out with the Trump-dominated wing of her party.
“I would not vote for J.D. Vance,” Cheney, a member of the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, told journalist Judy Woodruff at a discussion about the state of the nation at Cleveland State University.
When Woodruff asked Cheney if she would vote for Ryan if she were an Ohio-registered voter, Cheney replied: “I would.”
It’s the latest sign of how far Cheney, who voted to impeach former President Trump and in August was defeated in Wyoming’s Republican primary by a Trump-backed challenger, has fallen out with fellow Republicans who remain loyal to the former president.
Vance, a past critic of Trump, now praises him as the “best president of my lifetime.”
Vance largely owes his spot as the GOP Senate Republican nominee to Trump’s backing.
He rallied from behind former state Treasurer Josh Mandel and businessman Mike Gibbons to win Ohio’s Republican primary after securing Trump’s endorsement in April.
Vance has also embraced Trump’s claims of widespread election fraud in the 2020 election, telling the Youngstown Vindicator last year: “There were certainly people voting illegally on a large-scale basis.”
In January, he told Spectrum News: “I think the fundamental problem is we had a massive effort to shift the election by very powerful people in this country.”
“I don’t care whether you say it’s rigged, whether you say it’s stolen, like, I’ll say what I’m going to say about it,” he said.
Cheney has repeatedly dismissed Trump’s claims of election fraud as false, and at a hearing last month, she said the former president himself knew he lost a fair election.
“President Trump knew from unassailable sources that his election fraud claims were false,” she said at the Jan. 6 committee’s October hearing on the state of Trump’s mind prior to and during the 2021 attack on the Capitol.
“He admitted he had lost the election; he took actions consistent with that belief,” she said.
Ryan, who has represented the blue-collar Youngstown area for nearly 20 years in the House, is trailing Vance by 2 points in the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls.
Surveys conducted by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion and the Siena College Research Institute in mid-October showed the race tied. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rate the contest as “lean Republican.”
Source: TEST FEED1
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Biden seizes on high oil profits ahead of the midterms
The Biden administration is seizing on huge earnings calls from oil companies as it seeks to give voters a response to relatively high gasoline prices ahead of next week’s midterms.
President Biden has repeatedly sought to place blame on the industry for the high prices, but has ramped up its rhetoric in the wake of massive earnings.
And while analysts say that large parts of the price are set by the global oil market, not by individual companies, the optics of massive profits while Americans struggle with inflation gives the administration something to cling to.
In total, seven of the largest oil and gas companies combined raked in nearly $70 billion in third-quarter profits, according to recent earnings reports.
“If these companies were taking average profits on refining, instead of the profits they’re making today, gas prices would come down around 50 cents,” Biden tweeted Tuesday.
BP on Tuesday reported $8.2 billion in third-quarter profits, up from $3.3 billion during the same period last year. The British oil giant announced it would boost its stock buybacks to a total of $8.5 billion this year and pay around $800 million in new windfall taxes enacted by the U.K.
Last week, ExxonMobil reported a record $19.7 billion in quarterly earnings, while Chevron and Shell also posted big numbers — $11.2 billion and $9.5 billion, respectively.
Other energy titans reported huge earnings Tuesday. Marathon Petroleum posted a $4.5 billion profit, an increase of nearly 550 percent compared to last year’s third quarter. Phillips 66 reported $5.4 billion in third-quarter profits, a 1000 percent year-over-year increase.
Biden, during a speech on Monday, criticized the high earnings as a “windfall of war” citing the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on driving up oil prices.
Since that conflict and other factors drove up oil and gasoline prices, companies have experienced a profit bonanza. The Biden administration has called on them to use that income to reinvest in new oil and gas production, in the hopes of getting lower prices for consumers.
National gas prices are sitting at about $3.76 on average, according to AAA. That’s down from the peak of more than $5 per gallon in June but up from $3.40 one year ago.
In his speech on Monday, Biden threatened a “higher tax on their excess profits” and unspecified “other restrictions” if the companies do not increase production.
“So far, American oil companies are using that windfall — the windfall of profits — to buy back their own stock, passing that money on to their shareholders, not to consumers,” he said.
While the windfall tax wouldn’t win enough GOP support to pass the 50-50 Senate — no Republicans voted for a recent House bill to investigate alleged price gouging by oil companies — Biden’s comments represent a significant messaging effort to draw attention to high profits.
Democrats are struggling to craft a winning midterm message as voters increasingly cite inflation as their top issue ahead of abortion and other topics that gave Democrats a boost earlier this year. Prices rose 8.2 percent over the last year ending in September, driven by massive price hikes for gas, rent and food that are draining Americans’ paychecks.
Biden has repeatedly sought to put blame on the oil industry, and has called on companies to drill more.
Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, said that oil producers have been “conservative” in their approach to new production, despite recent high prices, as there’s risk of fluctuation.
“Oil shale growth has not progressed on the path that a lot of people thought it would,” he said.
“I don’t think they’re breaking any laws, but almost every one of them has been very, very judicious, not wanting to go through another boom and bust period,” he added of industry.
Kloza said that industry — and he particularly discussed oil refiners — is benefiting from the current situation. But, he described it as similar to high profits made by various industries under capitalism, rather than something that’s unique to oil.
“Sometimes capitalism can have some real excesses in terms of what people make and what profits are rendered. That’s true probably for pharmaceutical companies. It was true in the old days with cigarettes and it’s true these days with fuel,” he said.
The industry, meanwhile, pushed back on the notion that they are responsible for the prices, and also warned that a higher tax would actually prevent companies from pumping more oil.
“Increasing taxes on American energy discourages investment in new production, which is the exact opposite of what we need to do,” Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, which represents BP, ExxonMobil and Chevron, told reporters Tuesday. “Oil companies do not set prices. Global commodity markets do.”
The lobbying group called on Congress and the Biden administration to streamline permitting for major energy projects and reinstate lease sales on federal lands to boost production.
Energy giants say they’re investing in new drilling facilities but acknowledge that they’ll only provide slightly more oil supply in the short term. Oil companies have been careful not to overinvest in new production over fears that a looming global recession would stifle demand.
Still, the industry predicts that prices won’t drop much this winter, dimming hopes of relief for cash-strapped consumers.
“Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect gas prices to remain elevated and volatile, with the outlook heavily dependent on Russian pipeline flows and the severity of the Northern Hemisphere winter,” BP executive Murray Auchincloss said on an earnings call Tuesday.
The Biden administration has taken some steps in an effort to provide relief to consumers, including releasing barrels from the country’s strategic reserve this year, but there’s only so much they can do, since gasoline prices are largely based on a global oil market.
Biden also unsuccessfully lobbied the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to stave off production cuts aimed at keeping global oil prices elevated.
With the midterms a week away, though, the issue is sure to be on voters’ minds.
Source: TEST FEED1
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Supreme Court clears way for Graham to face questioning in Georgia election probe
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The Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the way for Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) to face questioning before a grand jury investigating 2020 election interference in Georgia, while emphasizing that the inquiry must abide by constitutional safeguards for lawmakers.
The court’s move was a legal setback for Graham, one of several high-profile Trump allies whom Atlanta-area prosecutors have pursued as part of a probe into the potentially criminal effort to disrupt the 2020 election in Georgia in favor of former President Trump.
The development came in an unsigned, two-paragraph order. Justice Clarence Thomas, who briefly paused the case last week in his capacity as the justice responsible for handling the emergency application, referred the matter to the full court. There were no noted dissents from Tuesday’s order.
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) obtained a subpoena for Graham’s testimony in July, before her efforts quickly became ensnared in legal wrangling.
Willis has indicated her interest in two phone calls Graham made in the weeks after the 2020 election to Georgia’s Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) and members of his staff, as well as any possibly related coordination that may have occurred between Graham and the Trump campaign.
Raffensperger has said Graham suggested that Georgia could invalidate large numbers of mail-in ballots from certain areas. Graham has denied the assertion.
Trump, for his part, in a taped phone call with Raffensperger pressed the top Georgia election official to “find” the roughly 11,000 votes required to overturn Biden’s victory and declare Trump the winner. Raffensperger resisted Trump’s efforts and has rebutted his false claims of election fraud.
Attorneys for Graham did not immediately respond to a request for comment, nor did the Fulton County District Attorney’s Office.
In late July, Graham received a subpoena ordering his appearance before the Fulton County grand jury the following month.
The South Carolina senator quickly asked a Georgia-based federal court to quash the subpoena. Among Graham’s claims was an assertion that the Constitution’s Speech or Debate Clause, which provides protections for lawmakers, should void the subpoena.
The case became quickly bogged down before an Atlanta-based federal judge in September ruled that Graham could be questioned about his phone calls with Georgia elections officials, within certain limits.
Specifically, U.S. District Judge Leigh May, an Obama appointee, said Graham would be shielded from inquiries that bear on “protected legislative activity,” including Graham’s information-gathering inquiries about Georgia’s then-existing election procedures and allegations of voter fraud, but that questioning could otherwise proceed.
After an intermediate appeals court affirmed that ruling, noting that Graham could mount objections to specific questions at the district court, Graham turned to the Supreme Court for emergency relief.
In its Tuesday ruling rebuffing Graham’s request, the Supreme Court reiterated that constitutional guardrails should apply when Graham faces questioning.
“The lower courts assumed that the informal investigative fact-finding that Senator Graham assertedly engaged in constitutes legislative activity protected by the Speech or Debate Clause, … and they held that Senator Graham may not be questioned about such activities,” the court wrote.
“The lower courts also made clear that Senator Graham may return to the District Court should disputes arise regarding the application of the Speech or Debate Clause immunity to specific questions,” the order continued. “Accordingly, a stay or injunction is not necessary to safeguard the Senator’s Speech or Debate Clause immunity.”
Updated: 3:13 p.m.
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US Capitol Police say political climate requires more resources to keep lawmakers safe
Following the attack on Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) husband Paul Pelosi, U.S. Capitol Police Chief Tom Manger said that more resources are necessary to provide security for lawmakers due to the contentious political climate.
“Friday’s attack against Paul Pelosi is an alarming reminder of the dangerous threats elected officials and public figures face during today’s contentious political climate,” Manger said in a statement on Tuesday.
Manger said that the Capitol Police made security improvements following the 2011 shooting of then-Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.) and the 2017 Congressional baseball practice shooting in which House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) was shot, as well as after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.
“With the increasing number of threats against elected officials from city council members to federal judges, our work to further our efforts to protect the Members of Congress becomes increasingly urgent,” Manger said.
The Capitol Police force is on track to meet its goal of hiring nearly 280 officers by the end of the year, Manger said, but is still working on meeting its long-term plans to expand protective operations.
“We believe today’s political climate calls for more resources to provide additional layers of physical security for Members of Congress,” Manger said.
Last year, President Biden signed into law security supplemental legislation that provided more than $70 million to support Capitol Police staffing, intelligence, protective details for members of Congress, and other security measures; as well as $35.4 for the Capitol Police to support additional measures and cooperation with other law enforcement agencies.
The Capitol Police is engaged in a review of Friday’s attack on Paul Pelosi.
“We believe today’s political climate calls for more resources to provide additional layers of physical security for Members of Congress,” Manger said. “This plan would include an emphasis on adding redundancies to the measures that are already in place for Congressional leadership. Hopefully you can understand that we cannot disclose the details about these improvements because our country cannot afford to make it easier for any potential bad actors.”
Manger also pushed for more prosecutions of those who make threats against members of Congress.
“During this time of heightened political tension, we continue to monitor thousands of cases across the country – in an effort to stop potential threats before they make headlines. During the past five-years, roughly 12-percent of cases – in which we identified people making threats – have been prosecuted,” Manger said. “We hope to see more of these cases prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”
The suspect in the attack against Paul Pelosi, 42-year-old David Wayne DePape, is facing both federal and local charges.
The Department of Justice charged DePape with assault and attempted kidnapping on Monday.
The San Francisco Disctrict Attorney on Monday announced that DePape would be charged with attempted murder, residential burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, elder abuse, false imprisonment of an elder and threats to a public official and their family.
Source: TEST FEED1
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Elon Musk clashes with Stephen King over Twitter's $20 verification charge
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Elon Musk clashed with author Stephen King over a report that Twitter will soon charge verified users $20 a month to keep their verified status.
King tweeted Monday night, “$20 a month to keep my blue check? F— that, they should pay me. If that gets instituted, I’m gone like Enron.”
Musk, who formally took over Twitter late last week, replied early Tuesday to defend the plan to charge verified users on the platform, though suggesting the price wasn’t finalized.
“We need to pay the bills somehow! Twitter cannot rely entirely on advertisers. How about $8?” Musk wrote in his tweet.
The plan to charge users $20 a month would make it a more expensive version of the existing premium Twitter plan called “Twitter Blue,” which charges users $4.99 per month for exclusive features, such as the ability to edit tweets after they are posted.
Verified Twitter users who already have a blue check mark beside their name will reportedly have 90 days to subscribe to Twitter Blue, or they will lose their verified status.
King was one of many high-profile Twitter users to complain of the reported change to verified status on the platform.
Actress Lynda Carter, journalist Kara Swisher and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver, among others, have complained about the proposed cost, while others have raised concerns about how adding charges might change the platform.
Musk’s takeover has also spurred worries about misinformation. Musk, a self-described “free-speech absolutist,” has said he would bring back Twitter users who have been previously banned, including former President Trump.
Musk, however, assured Twitter advertisers in a note last week that he would not allow the platform to turn into a “free-for-all hellscape.”
Source: TEST FEED1
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Arizona's Libertarian Senate candidate dropping out of race, endorsing Masters
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Libertarian Marc Victor dropped out of Arizona’s closely watched Senate race on Monday, encouraging voters to cast their ballots for Republican Blake Masters in his challenge to Sen. Mark Kelly (D).
Polls had shown Victor garnering support in the low single digits, but his small bloc of supporters could provide a critical boost to Masters, as surveys show the Republican only trailing Kelly by a few percentage points.
“Don’t vote for Marc Victor for Senate, vote for Blake Masters,” Victor said on Tuesday. “Blake’s in a very tight race here with Mark Kelly, and I want to see him win.”
Victor met virtually with Masters prior to dropping out of the race and posted a video of their roughly 20-minute conversation.
“While we don’t see eye-to-eye on everything, I feel very confident after that conversation that Blake Masters is going to do everything he possibly can to further the interests of the Live and Let Live Global Peace Movement,” said Victor, referring to an initiative he founded in 2019.
“Will he likely do some things that I’m not excited about? Yeah, I think so,” Victor added. “Is he likely to do other things that I’m very happy with? Yes. There’s no perfect choices here, I think we have to recognize that.”
Masters, a former executive at conservative superdonor Peter Thiel’s venture capital fund, is challenging Kelly in one of the country’s most competitive Senate races, which has tightened as Election Day approaches.
Kelly previously held a sizable lead following Masters’s primary victory as his juggernaut fundraising operation enabled an onslaught of ads in the state.
A GOP super PAC with ties to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), meanwhile, canceled millions of dollars worth of ad reservations in the state in late September.
But Masters has benefitted from a recent stream of outside spending by groups like the Club for Growth and former President Trump’s MAGA, Inc.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report last week shifted its rating from “lean Democrat” to “toss up” after private polling showed Kelly’s lead narrowing.
A poll from the left-leaning Data for Progress released last Wednesday showed the candidates tied at 47 percent support each, while other recent surveys have also recorded a small gap within their margins of error.
Some strategists have suggested Masters is benefitting from the presence of Kari Lake, Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, who has led her Democratic opponent in recent polls.
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Chief Justice Roberts temporarily shields Trump tax recods from House
The Supreme Court on Tuesday temporarily halted a House panel from accessing the financial records of former President Trump ahead of their expected release.
The move, which comes in response to an emergency request Trump filed on Monday, was ordered by Chief Justice John Roberts, who handles emergency matters arising in the District of Columbia.
It comes after a lower court cleared the way for the House Ways and Means Committee to obtain the records as part of a long-running legal battle.
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The Hill's Morning Report — Seven days of closing arguments
It’s Tuesday, which means there’s exactly one week left until the midterm elections. Republicans and Democrats are using the final stretch to connect with voters and tip razor-tight races in their party’s favor.
In response to rising gas prices, President Biden on Monday accused oil companies of “war profiteering” and raised the possibility of a windfall tax on energy companies if they don’t boost domestic production.
He criticized oil companies for taking in record-setting profits while refusing to help lower prices at the gas pump for consumers, suggesting he would look to Congress to levy tax penalties on the companies if they don’t invest some of their revenues into lowering costs (The Hill and U.S. News).
“My team will work with Congress to look at these options that are available to us and others,” Biden said. “It’s time for these companies to stop war profiteering, meet their responsibilities in this country and give the American people a break and still do very well.”
Biden’s messaging comes just days before voters head to the polls and underscores an effort by Democrats in recent weeks to pivot to appealing to voters on economic issues.
After Democrats saw a jolt of momentum in the late summer and early fall, control of the Senate is now in a dead heat with just a week to go before Election Day, write The Hill’s Max Greenwood and Al Weaver. The playing field has evened out dramatically in recent weeks amid a laser-focused effort by Republicans to tie their Democratic rivals to perceived rising crime and stubbornly high inflation.
Nevertheless, Republican control of the Senate is far from a foregone conclusion. Recent polling shows races tightening across the nation’s premier battleground states, and there’s widespread agreement among operatives in both parties that the battle for the Senate majority could go either way.
Projections & polling to watch:
▪ FiveThirtyEight: It’s a dead heat for the Senate, with a 51 in 100 chance of Democrats winning control of the chamber, compared to 49 in 100 for Republicans.
▪ Decision Desk HQ: As of Monday evening, their model predicts that Republicans have a 50.9 percent chance of controlling the Senate, with a mean seat projection of 51 (R) and 49 (D).
▪ A New York Times-Siena College poll of key Senate races in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada.
Democrats fear chances of defeating Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson slipped away for the third time in roughly 12 years in a state that otherwise has a strong track record of voting for Democrats, writes The Hill’s Alexander Bolton.
Forecasters are giving Democratic candidate Mandela Barnes, the state’s lieutenant governor, less chance of winning than challengers in the top-tier Senate races in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, but Democrats still hope they can drive enough young and base Democratic voters to the polls to defeat Johnson.
One GOP strategist conceded that his steady lead has narrowed in recent days.
“It’s closer now than it was a week ago,” the Senate GOP adviser told The Hill. “Maybe that’s Democrats coming home.”
Across the country, a slate of controversial GOP House nominees, such as Michigan candidate John Gibbs, are testing how far voters are willing to go to support a Republican ticket over concerns about how Democrats have handled issues such as the economy.
Gibbs, a Harvard- and Stanford-educated computer scientist and Christian missionary, has also “suggested that women should not have the right to vote, referenced conspiracy theories that a prominent Democrat participated in Satanic rituals and mused that the lost city of Atlantis might be buried beneath the North Pole” (Politico).
The Hill’s Niall Stanage has rounded up five midterm races that will deliver big lessons for both parties — from trends among Latino voters to foreshadowing for 2024 and GOP candidates winning over working-class Democrats.
Governors’ races are also tightening a week before election day. In New York, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s lead over Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) has shrunk to 6 points in recent weeks, according to an Oct. 28 Emerson College poll.
For months, Hochul had a double-digit lead over Zeldin in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor in more than 20 years. But Zeldin has focused his campaign heavily on crime, and in a state that’s seen sentencing reforms and the elimination of cash bail, coupled with rising crime rates in New York City, it seems to be working (Time).
“Zeldin’s really put his shoulder into making this a crime election, because he thinks he can win it,” Evan Roth Smith, a founding partner at Slingshot Strategies, told Time.
▪ Richmond Times-Dispatch: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) campaigns for Zeldin in New York.
▪ The New York Times: With allies nearby, Hochul and Zeldin try to spur voters to polls.
© Associated Press / Eduardo Munoz Alvarez | Republican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York at a campaign rally on Monday.
Midterm pressures have also divided and inflamed the responses to last week’s attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) husband Paul Pelosi, report The Hill’s Emily Brooks and Mike Lillis and The New York Times. The responses and finger-pointing over political violence have fueled tensions and partisan arguments in the week before the midterm elections that will decide if Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats keep or lose control of the House.
The tragic episode further stoked the already fraught debate over crime, law enforcement and the limits of violent political speech, particularly in the wake of last year’s attack on the U.S. Capitol.
▪ The New York Times: Federal prosecutors charged the man accused of breaking into the House Speaker’s home with attempting to kidnap her husband and with assaulting a relative of a federal official, according to charging documents filed on Monday.
▪ The Hill: Former President Trump ties the Pelosi attack to crime issues and to Democrats during a Sunday interview with a conservative Spanish-language station.
Related Articles
▪ The Wall Street Journal: Biden avoids some battleground states in midterms’ final stretch.
▪ Punchbowl News: The House Republican Conference will hold its candidate forum for leadership elections on Nov. 14 and the election on Nov. 15, as of current plans. House Democrats are likely to hold leadership elections after Thanksgiving.
▪ ProPublica: A county elections director stood up to locals who believe the voting system is rigged. They pushed back harder.
▪ CNN: Trump asks the Supreme Court to stop the IRS from turning over his tax returns to the House.
▪ FiveThirtyEight: What happened to Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams (D)?
LEADING THE DAY
➤ SUPREME COURT
A conservative majority on the Supreme Court on Monday sounded skeptical that affirmative action admissions policies in higher education are necessary or fair in pursuit of student body diversity (The Hill).
Cases involving Harvard University and the University of North Carolina that were explored by justices over five hours of oral arguments on Monday teed up the prospect that decades of race-based admissions precedent could be overturned by the 6-3 conservative majority court, which during its last term showed its willingness to scrap past precedents.
The two cases most likely will result in separate court decisions but probably not until late June (The New York Times). Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who previously served on one of Harvard’s governing bodies, recused herself from the Harvard case, prompting the court to separate the cases.
Nine states have barred race-based affirmative action, including California in 1996, Washington in 1998, Florida in 1999, Michigan in 2006, Nebraska in 2008, Arizona in 2010, New Hampshire and Oklahoma in 2012, and Idaho in 2020.
Justice Sonia Sotomayor pointed to statistics from higher education institutions in the states that have banned affirmative action. At one point, she raised those trends to push back on conservatives’ assertion that a 25-year timeline the Supreme Court set in its 2003 ruling sanctioning the use of race in admissions means affirmative action programs are now unnecessary.
“Even your adversary said he didn’t see the 25 years as a set deadline. It was an expectation,” Sotomayor said during questioning. “What we know we have nine states who have tried it and in each of them as I mentioned earlier, whites have either, white admissions have either remained the same or increased. And clearly, in some institutions, the numbers for underrepresented groups [have] fallen dramatically, correct?” (CNN).
“I’ve heard the word diversity quite a few times, and I don’t have a clue what it means,” Justice Clarence Thomas said. “It seems to mean everything for everyone.” Justice Samuel Alito asked a similar question about the phrase “underrepresented minority,” reported The New York Times’s Adam Liptak. “What does that mean?” he asked, adding that college admissions are “a zero-sum game” in which granting advantages to one group necessarily disadvantages others.
In response to conservative justices’ questioning about when the use of race in higher education admissions would end, U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, while defending the University of North Carolina’s program, emphasized the significance of gender disparities among the attorneys who appeared Monday before the Supreme Court.
Prelogar said that it was not about defining a precise quota to achieve diversity but about acknowledging extreme disparities and how they can “cause people to wonder whether the path to leadership is open.”
Prelogar was the only female attorney arguing Monday among the six lawyers who participated in oral arguments (CNN).
▪ SCOTUSblog, James Romoser: The court is poised to set jurisprudence on race for generations, and not just in affirmative action.
▪ The Washington Monthly: The court’s third great crisis.
© Associated Press / J. Scott Applewhite | Activists demonstrate in front of the Supreme Court Monday.
IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES
➤ INTERNATIONAL
Ships carrying grain left ports in Ukraine on Monday, two days after Russia said it was pulling out of the United Nations-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative achieved over the summer. The United Nations is trying to put the deal back together but on Monday, Russia said movement of ships in the Black Sea security corridor is “unacceptable” (Reuters).
Ukraine’s interior minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, said at least 12 ships left Ukrainian ports, including one vessel holding 40,000 tons of grain headed for Ethiopia (The Washington Post).
Reuters: Russian President Vladimir Putin says power grid strikes and grain deal withdrawal announcement were responses to a Crimea drone attack blamed on Ukraine.
Even as countries imposed sanctions on Russia after its February invasion of its neighbor, international trade with Moscow has boomed this year, thanks in part to shifting alliances. The New York Times breaks down how Russia pays for its war (check out the graphic).
“The value of its exports actually grew after it invaded Ukraine,” the Times analysis shows, “even in many countries that have taken an active role in opposing Russia.”
Norway, which shares a border with Russia, has been spooked by drone sightings and fears of unverified foreign intelligence gathering inside the country. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said his country’s military will “increase its preparedness” starting today. He said he has “no reason to believe that Russia wants to involve Norway or any other country directly in the war,” but he said the situation in Ukraine makes it “necessary for all NATO countries to be increasingly on their guard” (The Guardian).
Reuters: Russian missiles hit apartments in the southern port city of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, overnight, killing one.
In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro has yet to concede the election he on Sunday lost to challenger and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — known as “Lula” — prompting concern that he may not accept the results.
For months, Bolsonaro had claimed the only way he would lose the presidential election would be if it were rigged. He announced Monday that he plans to address the nation on Tuesday, though it remains unclear what his message will be (The New York Times).
Biden on Monday congratulated Lula on his victory, calling the president-elect to discuss the U.S. and Brazil’s work to combat climate change, safeguard food security and manage regional migration, according to the White House.
Axios: Lula looks to restore Brazil’s tarnished global stature.
OPINION
■ Lula’s triumph is a win for Brazil’s political center — not the left, by Mac Margolis, global opinions political columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3SRP3Px
■ How the impending red wave could become a tsunami, by Douglas E. Schoen, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/3WkjGjG
WHERE AND WHEN
👉 YOU’RE INVITED: Have a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights? The Hill has launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.
The House meets Thursday at noon for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14.
The Senate convenes Thursday at 10:30 a.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14.
The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. Biden will travel to Fort Lauderdale, Fla., to discuss Social Security and Medicare at 3 p.m.. Biden will campaign for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist in Golden Beach, Fla., at 4:45 p.m. The president will travel to Florida Memorial University in Miami Gardens for a political event at 7 p.m. to help the Democratic National Committee, Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), who is running for the Senate, and Crist. The president will return to the White House late tonight.
Vice President Harris will participate at 4:30 p.m. in radio interviews related to the midterm elections.
Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra will be in Los Angeles to lead a 10:30 a.m. PT roundtable at Union Station with Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) about the Affordable Care Act open enrollment season. The secretary at noon will visit the Kenneth Williams Health Center in Los Angeles to lead a roundtable with Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) about access to COVID-19 and flu vaccines by Latino and other underserved community residents. Becerra will visit the Boys & Girls Club of San Fernando Valley to lead a roundtable with Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Calif.) at 2:30 p.m. PT about mental and behavioral health issues important to young people in the Latino community and various federal efforts to support mental health and to prevent suicides.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet with the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee as part of its quarterly refunding process. Members of the committee from banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and other financial businesses provide their take on the overall strength of the U.S. economy with recommendations on a variety of technical debt management issues.
Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will participate in the White House Women’s Economic Impact briefing for national community leaders at 12:30 p.m. He will join White House senior advisers at 3:30 p.m. for the White House Youth Community Economic Impact briefing for young civic leaders from around the country.
ELSEWHERE
➤ TECH
Billionaire Elon Musk is fond of thinking out loud or at least tweeting and retreating. Now that he’s the sole director of the Twitter board as he determines the direction he will take his $44 billion company, more of that seems likely.
The big question in the political world is what Musk’s definition of free speech and an open “town square” will become and whether Twitter’s ban on former President Trump will be lifted and, if so, whether Trump will leap back in. The former president has suggested his preference is to stick with conservative platform Truth Social, but Trump is also known to change his mind.
Josh Green, Bloomberg Opinion: Democrats hate him, but Musk might be their savior. Letting Trump back on Twitter could help to galvanize and unify the Democratic Party for the 2024 elections.
Among Twitter employees, the big question is about pending layoffs. The Washington Post reported on Monday that a first round will target 25 percent of the company’s workforce of more than 7,000. Layoffs, according to the Post, are to touch almost all departments and are expected to specifically impact sales, product, engineering, legal, and trust and safety in the coming days.
On Sunday Musk tweeted that reporting about impending layoffs at Twitter was “false.”
Earlier this year, Musk told prospective partners in the purchase deal that he planned to cut nearly 75 percent of Twitter’s total workforce, which would leave the company with about 2,000 employees, according to interviews and documents obtained by the Post. Musk last week told employees when he visited Twitter’s headquarters that he did not plan to cut three-fourths of the workforce.
Twitter’s nine-member board has been dissolved and the company’s former top executives are gone (The Hill).
Musk and the tech investors who are helping him transition the company indicate an interest in monetizing Twitter’s blue check verification with a subscription model, a potential change for a platform that has been supported by advertising and is free to users (The Verge reported on Sunday that subscription verification of $20 a month had been discussed).
▪ Axios: Musk’s team is working to reboot Vine this year. Twitter shuttered the looping-video app in 2016 after acquiring it four years earlier and then reportedly tried to sell it.
▪ NPR: Across the Atlantic, officials remind Musk that European speech rules apply to Twitter. “There is a European rulebook, and you should live by it,” Margrethe Vestager, the European Commission’s executive vice president who oversees digital policy for the 27-nation bloc, said in an interview. “Otherwise, we have the penalties. We have the fines. We have all the assessments and all the decisions that will come to haunt you.”
▪ The New York Post: Musk deletes his tweet about an unfounded rumor about the Pelosi attack.
© Associated Press / Jeff Chiu | Twitter’s headquarters in San Francisco on Friday.
➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH
The Food and Drug Administration reports a shortage in the United States of amoxicillin, an oral antibiotic often prescribed for children and in use in treating rising cases of the respiratory infection RSV (U.S. News & World Report). The exact cause of the shortage is unclear but the operating assumption is increased demand.
“I think it’s going to be challenging for doctors and prescribers to give their patients a prescription that they’ll then be able to get filled, because pharmacies are going to have a variety of different strengths in stock, and you hate to have that delay of the back and forth, especially for an antibiotic they usually want to get started pretty quick. So I think it’s going to be a frustrating shortage,” Erin Fox, a senior pharmacy director at University of Utah Health, told CNN.
The Atlantic: How COVID-19 helped grow an essential treatment for pneumonia in Senegal.
Driven by droughts, floods and armed conflicts, a record number of cholera outbreaks around the globe have affected hundreds of thousands of people and so severely strained the supply of vaccines that global health agencies are rationing doses, The New York Times reports.
The Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia have reported outbreaks, overwhelming fragile health systems and putting millions at risk. While cholera is typically fatal in about 3 percent of cases, the World Health Organization said recent outbreaks are resulting in higher rates of fatalities.
Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,070,389. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,649 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)
Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.
THE CLOSER
© Associated Press / Nick Oxford | A Sam’s Club recycling center in Tulsa, Okla. in 2021.
And finally … ♻️ All that plastic being tossed in recycling bins likely isn’t going where you think it is. According to a new Greenpeace report, only a mere 5 percent of plastic is actually recycled (NPR). The organization calls plastic recycling a “dead end” — and even the plastics industry concedes the national recycling effort needs help.
Report author Jan Bell, a leading critic and thorn in the side of plastic manufacturers, wants the American public to face facts. Grocery bag drop-off boxes are glorified trash cans. That swirly recycling symbol on coffee cup lids and clamshell boxes is more wishful thinking than fact. And while some clear plastic bottles may be recyclable, green ones are not.
Greenpeace says it wants governments, manufacturers and merchants to embrace changes, including adoption of quotas for reusable packaging, “reuse and refill” practices and even a renewed embrace of reusable glass in place of throwaway plastic.
▪ WJLA-TV: In Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia, there are “Trick or Trash” boxes that collect and will recycle … get ready … the small plastic candy wrappers from Halloween treats that customarily wind up in the trash.
▪ Grist: 380 million tons of plastic are made every year. None of it is truly recyclable.
▪ CNN, Chris Cillizza analysis: We consume the rough equivalent of a credit card’s worth of plastic every week.
Stay Engaged
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