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Is the US headed toward a housing crash? Experts say it's not 2008.

Sharply rising mortgage rates, a steep decline in home sales and a record price slowdown have raised concerns that the housing market could crash.  

The mortgage rate reached over 7 percent this week, the first time in almost two decades that rates climbed that high. U.S. home prices saw a record slowdown in August, falling by 2.6 percent, and new home sales fell 11 percent in September, according to data released by the Census Bureau on Wednesday.  

But experts argue these market trends are a symptom of a correction after two years of massive growth and several key elements present during the 2008 housing crash are missing in today’s current economic climate.  

The start of the pandemic saw efforts by the Federal Reserve and Congress to stimulate the economy. The central bank dropped interest rates to near-zero levels and lawmakers passed rounds of COVID-19 relief for individual Americans to get by and small businesses to keep employees on the payroll.  

Amid economic strife, the housing market boomed because of extremely low mortgage rates, intense competition bolstered by low inventory and remote work options, and soaring home prices. 

But since March, the Federal Reserve has instituted a series of interest rate hikes in order to rein in sky-high inflation that has persistently hovered around 8 percent for months.  

As a result of the central bank’s efforts, mortgage rates have skyrocketed, topping 7 percent for the first time since 2002 this week. Mortgage rates could climb further as the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation and raise interest rates. 

This has made it more difficult for buyers to afford monthly payments while listing prices remain high. The median sales price of new houses sold last month was $470,600, while the average sales price was $517,700. 

The increasing mortgage rates have resulted in an overall drop in demand — fueled by plummeting new home sales — and record price deceleration.  

Further, the number of homes under contract fell for the fourth straight month, a further sign of a significant contraction. 

“Until this month, the pullback in the housing market could be described as something of a return to pre-pandemic conditions before sub-3% mortgage rates ignited a homebuying frenzy in 2020 and 2021,” Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr wrote in an analysis on Thursday. 

“But now both mortgage purchase applications and pending sales are below 2018 levels. A four-year setback is a serious correction. With mortgage rates still elevated, we are in for further sales declines, but those should eventually bring price relief to those who need to move this winter,” Marr added.  

Yet even amid the slowdown, experts say the housing market and the larger economy are markedly different from the 2008 financial crisis, when the housing bubble burst. 

“At that time there was a glut of housing inventory. Overbuilding had taken place – too much home construction relative to household formations,” Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders, told The Hill. 

“You had a lot of risky mortgage underwriting that put us in a position that when home price declines occurred and then ultimately combined with a rising unemployment rate [there were] lots of underwater mortgages and rising foreclosure rates, and it took some time for the housing glut to be reduced,” Dietz said.  

The housing glut was followed by close to a decade of underbuilding that contributed to a shortage of at least 1 million homes today. This was exacerbated by millennials coming of age near the end of this period of underproduction. 

Millennials’ ongoing needs could also put a floor on prices, Yelena Maleyev, an economist with KPMG Economics, told The Hill. 

“Millennials are going to continue aging into their prime home buying years. We’ve had household formation outpacing new building for many years now,” Maleyev said. 

“And so, this undersupply is still going to provide a bit of a floor on how low you can possibly go because even at a 7% mortgage rate, people still might need to move. There are life triggers that cause people to need to buy a house even if they don’t necessarily want to,” Maleyev added. 

There are also major differences in lending standards today compared to the lead-up to the financial crisis. Previous practices enabled buyers to easily qualify for loans even if they did not have a supporting income, Jason Sharon, mortgage broker and owner of Home Loans Inc., explained to The Hill. 

But now standards have changed, especially after the passing of the consumer protection legislation known as the Dodd Frank Act, named after former lawmakers and bill sponsors Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), and Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.). 

“So, credit restrictions increased, and the verification of income and assets and employment were established. Now you’re not getting a conforming loan without meeting very rigorous documentation requirements,” Sharon said. 

Other economic factors like unemployment differ sharply from the early 2000s financial crisis. Labor Department data shows the unemployment rate at 5 percent in December 2008, before ballooning to 9.5 percent by the middle of 2009.  

Conditions appear better today as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent last month.  

In addition, the U.S. also experienced growth in the third quarter of this year. Data released by the Commerce Department showed the gross domestic product (GDP) increasing at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent. Though, these figures have still not quelled concerns about a looming recession.  

Nonetheless, the latest GDP report and employment rate means the U.S. has so far avoided a recession.  

Still, there was difficult news for the housing sector within the data, as spending on residential construction dropped 26.4 percent in the third quarter. This is almost 10 percentage points higher than the 17.8 percent decline in the second quarter. 

Economists expect further declines in the housing market, but Dietz said the numbers should be put into context. 

“I think we have to kind of put some of the expected readjustment, painful as it will be, into some perspective that if you’re talking about a market that saw prices over the last two years rise 40 or 50 percent, a pullback of 15 percent still leaves the market considerably higher priced than where it was two years ago,” Dietz said. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Biden congratulates Lula on victory over Trump-backed Bolsonaro in Brazil

President Biden on Sunday congratulated Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for his victory in Brazil’s presidential election, beating incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, who was backed by former President Donald Trump.

Bolsonaro, like Trump, has sowed doubt about the integrity of his country’s election system. Biden called Brazil’s election “free, fair, and credible” in his statement Sunday. 

“I look forward to working together to continue the cooperation between our two countries in the months and years ahead,” Biden said of Lula. 

With nearly 100 percent of votes counted Sunday night, Lula had 50.9 percent of the vote compared to 49.1 percent for Bolsonaro. 

The former and incumbent presidents were the top two candidates in a general election earlier this month, advancing to Sunday’s runoff. 

Lula was previously president of Brazil from 2003 to 2010, leading his left-wing Workers’ Party to soaring popularity. 

However, after leaving office he was swept up in a massive corruption scandal that landed him in prison for 19 months. A Supreme Court justice nullified his convictions in March 2021, clearing him to run for president again. 

Bolsonaro has been called “Trump of the tropics” and has been a deeply divisive president, battling with the country’s Supreme Court, overseeing massive clearcutting of the Amazon rainforest and spreading skepticism about COVID-19 and vaccines. 

Trump on Sunday morning urged Brazilian voters to return Bolsonaro to the president’s office. 

“To the People of Brazil, this is your big day, and also, a big day for the World. Your GREAT and Highly Respected President, Jair Bolsonaro, needs you to get out and Vote, TODAY, so that your Country can continue on its incredible path of success,” Trump wrote.  

“Don’t let the Radical Left Lunatics & Maniacs destroy Brazil like they have so many other countries.”

Lula promised tax hikes on the rich and increased government services for the poor during the campaign, but has offered few specifics. 

Bolsonaro’s warnings about election fraud have spurred concern that he will refuse to accept his loss on Sunday. 

As of 8:30 p.m. EST Sunday night, Bolsonara had yet to publicly respond to the results. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Lula defeats Bolsonaro to again become Brazil's president

SAO PAULO (AP) — Brazil’s electoral authority said Sunday that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the leftist Worker’s Party defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro to become the country’s next president.

With 98.8% of the votes tallied in the runoff vote, da Silva had 50.8% and Bolsonaro 49.2%, and the election authority said da Silva’s victory was a mathematical certainty.

Da Silva — the country’s former president from 2003-2010 — has promised to restore the country’s more prosperous past, yet faces faces headwinds in a polarized society.

It is a stunning return to power for da Silva, 77, whose 2018 imprisonment over a corruption scandal sidelined him from that year’s election, paving the way for then-candidate Bolsonaro’s win and four years of far-right politics.

His victory marks the first time since Brazil’s 1985 return to democracy that the sitting president has failed to win reelection. His inauguration is scheduled to take place on Jan. 1.

Thomas Traumann, an independent political analyst, compared the results to U.S. President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, saying da Silva is inheriting an extremely divided nation.

“The huge challenge that Lula has will be to pacify the country,” he said. “People are not only polarized on political matters, but also have different values, identity and opinions. What’s more, they don’t care what the other side’s values, identities and opinions are.”

Bolsonaro had been leading throughout the first half of the count and, as soon as da Silva overtook him, cars in the streets of downtown Sao Paulo began honking their horns. People in the streets of Rio de Janeiro’s Ipanema neighborhood could be heard shouting, “It turned!”

Da Silva’s headquarters in downtown Sao Paulo hotel only erupted once the final result was announced, underscoring the tension that was a hallmark of this race.

“Four years waiting for this,” said Gabriela Souto, one of the few supporters allowed in due to heavy security.

Outside Bolsonaro’s home in Rio de Janeiro, ground-zero for his support base, a woman atop a truck delivered a prayer over a speaker, then sang excitedly, trying to generate some energy. But supporters decked out in the green and yellow of the flag barely responded. Many perked up when the national anthem played, singing along loudly with hands over their hearts.

Most opinion polls before the election gave a lead to da Silva, universally known as Lula, though political analysts agreed the race grew increasingly tight in recent weeks.

For months, it appeared that da Silva was headed for easy victory as he kindled nostalgia for his presidency, when Brazil’s economy was booming and welfare helped tens of millions join the middle class.

But while da Silva topped the Oct. 2 first-round elections with 48% of the vote, Bolsonaro was a strong second at 43%, showing opinion polls significantly underestimated his popularity. Many Brazilians support Bolsonaro’s defense of conservative social values and he shored up support in an election year with vast government spending.

Bolsonaro’s administration has been marked by incendiary speech, his testing of democratic institutions, his widely criticized handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the worst deforestation in the Amazon rainforest in 15 years. But he has built a devoted base by defending conservative values and presenting himself as protection from leftist policies that he says infringe on personal liberties and produce economic turmoil.

Da Silva is credited with building an extensive social welfare program during his 2003-2010 tenure that helped lift tens of millions into the middle class as well as presiding over an economic boom. The man universally known as Lula left office with an approval rating above 80%; then U.S. President Barack Obama called him “the most popular politician on Earth.”

But he is also remembered for his administration’s involvement in vast corruption revealed by sprawling investigations. Da Silva’s arrest in 2018 kept him out of that year’s race against Bolsonaro, a fringe lawmaker at the time who was an outspoken fan of former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Da Silva was jailed for for 580 days for corruption and money laundering. His convictions were later annulled by Brazil’s top court, which ruled the presiding judge had been biased and colluded with prosecutors. That enabled da Silva to run for the nation’s highest office for the sixth time.

For months, it appeared that he was headed for easy victory as he kindled nostalgia for his presidency, when the economy was booming and welfare helped tens of millions join the middle class. But results from an Oct. 2 first-round vote — da Silva got 48% and Bolsonaro 43% — showed opinion polls had significantly underestimated Bolsonaro’s resilience and popularity. He shored up support, in part, with vast government spending.

Da Silva has pledged to boost spending on the poor, reestablish relationships with foreign governments and take bold action to eliminate illegal clear-cutting in the Amazon rainforest.

He hasn’t provided specific plans on how he will achieve those goals, and faces many challenges. The president-elect will be confronted by strong opposition from conservative lawmakers likely to take their cues from Bolsonaro.

Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, compared the likely political climate to that experienced by former President Dilma Rousseff, da Silva’s hand-picked successor after his second term.

“Lula’s victory means Brazil is trying to overcome years of turbulence since the reelection of President Dilma Rousseff in 2014. That election never ended; the opposition asked for a recount, she governed under pressure and was impeached two years later,” said Melo. “The divide became huge and then made Bolsonaro.”

Unemployment this year has fallen to its lowest level since 2015 and, although overall inflation has slowed during the campaign, food prices are increasing at a double-digit rate. Bolsonaro’s welfare payments helped many Brazilians get by, but da Silva has been presenting himself as the candidate more willing to sustain aid going forward and raise the minimum wage.

Da Silva has also pledged to put a halt to illegal deforestation in the Amazon, and once again has prominent environmentalalist Marina Silva by his side, years after a public falling out when she was his environment minister. The president-elect has already pledged to install a ministry for Brazil’s orginal peoples, which will be run by an Indigenous person.

In April, he tapped center-right Geraldo Alckmin, a former rival, to be his running mate. It was another key part of an effort to create a broad, pro-democracy front to not just unseat Bolsonaro, but to make it easier to govern. Da Silva mended also has drawn support from Sen. Simone Tebet, a moderate who finished in third place in the election’s first round.

“If Lula manages to talk to voters who didn’t vote for him, which Bolsonaro never tried, and seeks negotiated solutions to the economic, social and political crisis we have, and links with other nations that were lost, then he could reconnect Brazil to a time in which people could disagree and still get some things done,” Melo said.

The highly polarized election in Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, extended a wave of recent leftist victories in South America, including Chile, Colombia and Argentina.

Source: TEST FEED1

Supreme Court to weigh future of affirmative action in college admissions

The future of affirmative action in higher education hangs in the balance as the Supreme Court on Monday hears arguments over race-conscious admissions policies at two prestigious universities.

Harvard University and the University of North Carolina (UNC) will be defending their use of race — as one of many admissions criteria — to attain the educational benefits of a diverse student body.

Their conservative-backed challengers, Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA), contend that the schools’ approach violates constitutional protections and federal law and want the court to prohibit admissions offices from considering an applicant’s race at all.

Ishan Bhabha, a partner at the law firm Jenner & Block who filed an amicus brief on behalf of Ivy League and other elite schools, said that if the Supreme Court takes that dramatic step, the repercussions for higher education would be severe.

“If you don’t have a series of divergent viewpoints … then one of the most important priorities of institutions of higher education — which is to forward knowledge, to ask difficult questions, to explore unknown concepts and have one idea clash against another to try and figure out which one is correct or which one is defensible — that is significantly hampered,” said Bhabha, who co-leads his firm’s initiative on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI).

With the case coming on the heels of a Supreme Court term that saw conservative justices overturn landmark rulings including Roe v. Wade, many legal experts believe that longstanding affirmative action precedent is now on the chopping block.

“This is a court that I think has a solid six-justice majority that sees racial labeling or racial tagging, for any purpose whatsoever, as a constitutional evil,” said Steve Schwinn, a law professor at the University of Illinois Chicago.

The challengers are asking the 6-3 conservative majority court to overrule its landmark 2003 decision in Grutter v. Bollinger, which permits colleges to diversify their student populations by using race as one part of a holistic assessment of individual applicants.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, one of the court’s more liberal members and the nation’s first female African American justice, is recused from the Harvard case because of her recent role as a member of Harvard’s board of overseers.

Among SFFA’s arguments in suing the schools is its claim that they failed to pursue diversity goals through available race-neutral alternatives, as required under Supreme Court precedent. The schools, for their part, have countered that there are no workable alternatives available.

SFFA suffered defeat in the lower courts, where judges rejected its arguments based on the 5-4 ruling in Grutter, prompting their appeal to the Supreme Court.

In court papers, SFFA has urged the justices to find that Grutter defies the constitutional and statutory guarantee of equal treatment under the law. The use of race in admissions decisions, they say, has led college admissions officers to engage in “crude stereotyping.”

“Applicants who check the box for African American at Harvard and UNC, for example, receive a preference because of their race whether they grew up in poverty and went to failing schools, have parents who were multimillionaire executives, spent their formative years in Europe, are the direct descendants of slaves, or are second-generation immigrants from Africa,” SFFA wrote, urging the justices to upend decades of affirmative action precedent.

In its suit against Harvard, SFFA goes a step further, alleging that the school’s admissions policy discriminates against Asian Americans. The group argued that Harvard’s subjective “personal ratings” scores, which tended to reflect cultural stereotypes, had made it harder for Asian Americans to be admitted compared to applicants of other races, regardless of personal circumstances.

Several Harvard students with Asian American backgrounds who spoke to The Hill pushed back forcefully against how SFFA had framed their school’s admission policy. They are part of a diverse group of thousands of current Harvard students and alumni whose views are reflected in an amicus brief filed by the NAACP Legal Defense Fund.

Among them is Angie Shin, a Korean American who entered Harvard after graduating from an underfunded Los Angeles County public high school, which she described as having a student body of largely low-income, immigrant students from Black, Latino, and Asian backgrounds, where only around half graduated on time and relatively few went on to obtain college degrees.In this environment, Shin said, the burden fell to her “to get literate” about what higher education opportunities were available. 

“For instance, it took me so many years of Googling around on the internet and trying to figure out what scholarships were, how they worked and why they were taking applications so early,” she said. 

As the more than 100 friend-of-court briefs filed in the case illustrate, the potential stakes of the dispute extend beyond academia.

According to Bhabha, of the firm Jenner & Block, if the court overrules Grutter, it could represent the first step in a coordinated effort to prohibit the consideration of race in other dimensions of American life.

“If Grutter is overturned, it will light a fire to systematically remove DEI initiatives from all aspects of society,” Bhabha said.

Source: TEST FEED1

Seriously low diesel supply threatens to worsen inflation

A seriously low U.S. and global diesel supply is likely to drive up fuel costs and worsen inflation, raising concerns as the cold weather months approach.  

“The national numbers for distillates are pretty tight,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.  

“It’s uncomfortable. That doesn’t mean that you’re going to see widespread outages, but if we get a bout of cold weather, things could be challenging.” 

Analysts say that a confluence of factors, long bubbling beneath the surface, are now coming to a head as colder temperatures bring more seasonal demand for diesel, a fuel that powers trucks and buses and is also used in heating.  

“This is the start of heating oil season. This is when demand really starts picking up as we enter the winter months,” said Debnil Chowdhury, the head of North and Latin American refining and marketing research at S&P Global Commodity Insights. 

The country has about 25 days worth of diesel left, a level that’s considered very low. De Haan said that normally, the country’s supply is closer to the “low to mid 30s” in terms of the number of days remaining.  

Much of the country’s attention has been focused on gasoline prices, which have fluctuated throughout the year. They have generally fallen in recent months following a peak of $5 per gallon in June.  

Gasoline and diesel are products made from oil, and oil prices soared after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  

A confluence of factors has also strained diesel markets.  

These factors include reduced refining capacity due to the pandemic, increased demand amid COVID-19 recovery and Chinese export quotas, Chowdhury said. 

“Diesel demand came back a lot faster than other products. There are refineries that shut down across the globe so the ability to supply was hindered,” he said. “And then finally, China, which is a larger diesel exporter … wasn’t able to export.”  

“All of those things combined led the world to really have low inventory,” he added, also mentioning a recent increase in demand for jet fuel, which may have to compete with diesel at the refinery.  

He added that the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also played a role in rerouting trade of the fuel as many European countries avoid Russian products, creating market inefficiencies.  

In addition to the long-term refinery closures, De Haan also highlighted some recent outages in the Midwest.  

“The refinery fire in Northwest Indiana and now the … shutdown of BP’s Toledo refinery, those are refineries that produce a lot of diesel fuel because they process a lot of heavy Canadian oil, so that is not helping the situation at all,” he said. 

Analysts say that this crunch is expected to worsen persistently high inflation not seen in the last four decades. High diesel prices may drive up shipping and heating costs.  

“The rising costs of diesel fuel therefore impacts everybody, as diesel prices affect direct manufacturing, transportation and heating costs. As diesel prices rise, so do the costs of goods which in general are passed onto consumers,” said Suzanne Danforth, an analyst with Wood Mackenzie, in a written statement to The Hill.  

Danforth added that this could also help push the country into recession, as rising prices could curb demand for products.  

“Higher diesel prices have the potential to create even stronger inflationary pressures especially if the current price spike is sustained, adding significant downside risk to demand and increasing the chances of a global recession,” she said.  

However, she also noted that if the economy slows, that could also help bring diesel prices down. 

But the impacts of heating costs may not impact Americans evenly. Heating oil is most commonly used in the Northeast, and that region may be hit hardest by large utility bills.  

The Biden administration for its part has sought to put pressure on industry to increase the supply of diesel.  

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese called the inventory levels “unacceptably low” and called on industry to build up its inventory.  

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm called on industry to cut back its exports of “refined products” which include diesel and gasoline, in recent weeks, arguing that the supply is needed stateside.  

The industry, however, has pushed back, arguing that exports are important for maintaining global supplies, especially amid disruptions caused by the conflict in Ukraine.  

“Reducing global supply by limiting U.S. exports to build region-specific inventory will only aggravate the global supply shortfall,” ExxonMobil’s CEO reportedly wrote to the Biden administration last month.  

Overall, Chowdhury said, there’s limited options to fix the problem. 

“This is a difficult crisis to get out of,” he said. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Will he or won’t he? Pressure mounts on Biden for post-midterm decision 

President Biden will face mounting pressure to announce his intentions about whether he will run for reelection immediately after the midterm elections — pretty much regardless of the outcome.  

But pressure will only intensify, some Democrats say, if their candidates perform poorly on Nov. 8.  

That is increasingly a concern for Democrats, who have long seen holding the House majority as a longshot but held out hopes they could keep their Senate majority.  

That’s still a possibility, but with races tightening in a number of states, including Pennsylvania, angst is rising in Democratic circles about the results.  

For much of the summer, Democrats were feeling optimistic about the Senate, so a loss of both chambers would be a bitter pill to swallow.  

That outcome will almost certainly lead to stronger calls for Democrats to dump Biden ahead of 2024. 

“No matter what happens, there’s going to be pressure on him to make a decision sooner rather than later,” said Democratic strategist Jim Manley, who served as a senior aide to the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). 

But Manley agreed a poor showing for Democrats in the midterms would be more problematic for the president.  

“The bigger the loss, the more of a factor it will play in his own decisionmaking process,” Manley added. “If it’s a rout, obviously there are going to have to be changes in a lot of different areas.” 

In the House, if Democrats lose dozens and dozens of seats, it will add to the pressure on Biden.  

“If House Democrats were to take a shellacking, there will be loud voices out there asking for him to make an announcement,” Manley said.  

It’s quite unclear that Biden wants to make an announcement one way or the other quickly after the election.  

Biden is known to be deliberative, if not outright slow, in making electoral decisions.  

In 2020, he was criticized for entering the race months after other Democratic rivals.  

In 2016, as he debated whether to enter the race following his son Beau Biden’s death, many of his donors and supporters were already locked in with Hillary Clinton. He did seriously consider a late entry, but by then it was too late. 

Biden looks back on that decision with regret given his confidence that he would have defeated former President Trump in 2016, preventing his presidency.  

Now Trump is almost certainly on Biden’s mind again as he weighs his future. The former president is teasing a White House bid for 2024 and may make his own decision not long after the midterms.  

Other Democrats thinking about running for the White House will want to know what Biden’s plans are quickly so they can lay the groundwork for their own campaigns.

Already there has been some grumbling among Democrats who view Biden’s age — he’ll turn 80 next month — as a major factor.  

They also worry privately that he’s been unable to control the narrative on arguably the most pressing issue facing the White House and Democratic candidates in the midterms: inflation.  

Biden saw his polling numbers inch up briefly after a string of legislative wins over the summer. But the president’s approval ratings now have slipped to 40 percent, according to a Gallup survey released this week. 

“The questions about Biden’s re-elect only subsided because for a few months over the summer, things were going well. Now they’re not,” one Democratic strategist said bluntly. “And while Biden’s accomplishments have been substantial, there’s no getting around the fact that he’s going to be 80 and he’s not our most effective speaker.  

“If Democrats lose Congress, it’ll feel far more consequential than a normal midterm loss, and as always, we’ll blame our messaging and our messengers,” the strategist added. “We focused on the wrong things, and we don’t have the right leaders to rally the troops.”

Republicans are practically eating popcorn as they ready for what they think will be another round of Democratic infighting.  

“My instincts are that the knives will start coming out the day after the midterms that Joe is to blame,” said John Thomas, a GOP consultant who is working on some midterm races. “If progressives win, they’ll say he’s not being progressive enough.  

“The Tim Ryans of the world will say he can’t speak to mainstream Americans on economic issues, that they’re the party of elitists,” Thomas added, referring to the Democratic congressman from Ohio who is running for the Senate in a competitive race against
Republican J.D. Vance.  

Still, Thomas said if Trump does announce soon after the midterms, “it’s a lifeline to Joe Biden. It’s the encore. ‘I came to save the country from the orange man, and I’m the only one who can beat him once again.’” 

Biden hasn’t given a timeline for when he might announce his intentions.  

But he has told aides and allies — including former President Barack Obama and the Rev. Al Sharpton — in private conversations that he is planning on running again.  

And Democratic strategists say Biden, as history has shown, won’t be pressured by any kind of political timeline or public scrutiny.  

“The smartest thing the Biden campaign did in the last election was they thought through a plan and then implemented it without panicking or changing it on every ebb and flow of what TV, Twitter, or people in D.C. were saying,” said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale.  

“They are putting together their plans now and I think they’re going to announce on the timeline they want no matter what happens in the midterms,” Vale added. “I also don’t think the timing affects the field. If he announces tomorrow, in a month, or in a year no one who has a snowball’s chance in hell is going to run against him.”  

Brett Samuels contributed to this report.  

Source: TEST FEED1

RNC chairwoman won't apologize for mocking Fetterman, Biden speech issues 

Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel on Sunday sidestepped a question about whether she regrets mocking President Biden and Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman (D) for their speaking abilities.  

“Fox News Sunday” host Shannon Bream asked McDaniel to respond to her own recent comments making light of the president’s speech impediment and Fetterman’s speaking issues following a stroke asking, “Do you regret at all how that could appear insensitive?”  

“I certainly want Joe Fri — Fetterman — John Fetterman to get better, and I would never make fun of somebody who has a stroke. But I will say they should be getting in front of the press, and they’re not, and they’re hiding,” McDaniel said in the interview, mixing up the two Democrats’ names more than once.  

In an interview last week, McDaniel had responded to news that Biden and Fetterman, along with Vice President Harris, would campaign together in Pennsylvania by saying that “maybe they can get a full sentence out.” 

Fetterman suffered a stroke just before the state’s Democratic primary earlier this year and has been dealing throughout his campaign with concerns about how his auditory and speaking issues would impact him if he were elected to the Senate. Biden has long dealt and acknowledged a stutter he has had since he was a child.

On Sunday, the RNC chairwoman didn’t respond to questioning about whether she regrets the comments. 

“Joe— John Fetterman is following in the steps of Joe Biden — I know I’m conflating the names — but they’re sitting in the basement. They’re not getting in front of the voters and they’re not being honest about their issues,” McDaniel said.  

Source: TEST FEED1

Ukraine says Iran’s help for Russia should push Israel out of neutral stance

Ukrainian officials say Iran’s war-time aid to Russia should convince Israel to abandon its position of withholding military assistance to Kyiv.

Ukraine also wants the Biden administration to step up pressure on Israel, which has condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion and delivered humanitarian support to Kyiv but refrained from offering arms. 

Officials in Kyiv are hoping that Tehran’s provision of suicide drones to Russia will lead to a shift in position for Israel. They are particularly pushing for Israeli help with air defenses that would provide protection against the Iranian drones.

And they are making clear that the Biden administration should play a role in the pressure campaign on Israel.

“The Americans are the only country that Israel is listening to,” Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevgen Korniychuck said in a phone call with The Hill from Tel Aviv.  

Korniychuck said that relations with Israel have advanced in recent weeks, “on some technical issues related to defense,” including an advanced warning system to help alert civilians of incoming missile and rocket attacks from the Russians. 

“That’s a positive development, and we are expecting more from Israel of course,” he said. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought to further convince Israel by raising the possibility that Russia could help Iran with its nuclear program. The White House has declined to comment on the allegation, but said it remains committed to keeping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. 

“We know that Russia and Iran are growing closer together. … I don’t have anything to speak to with respect to Russia providing any tangible support to Iran or their nuclear program,” national security spokesperson John Kirby told The Hill. 

Israeli officials have generally been noncommittal, but say they are watching Iran’s involvement with Russia closely.

“Iranian drones, we’re definitely analyzing the situation,” Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in an interview with CNN this week. 

Israel maintains strategic relations with Moscow in part to carry out attacks against Iranian activities in Syria and to disrupt weapons transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Officials also say Jerusalem has to maintain communication with Moscow over the Jewish diaspora in Russia.

Iran’s weapons shipments to Russia are a concern for Jerusalem, though it does present an intelligence gathering opportunity for Israel.  

Israeli officials are largely pointing to the closer ties between Russia and Iran as a further example of Tehran’s malign activity — from human rights abuses, most recently in its violent and deadly crackdown on women-led protests in the country, delivering weapons to proxy fighting forces in the Middle East, support for terrorism and increasing stockpile of nuclear material. 

“This is an example of the way Iran is working: crushing its own citizens, moving towards nuclear weapons, and supplying lethal weapons that are killing innocent citizens in Ukraine,” Herzog said in a meeting with President Biden on Wednesday.

“And I think the Iranian challenge will be a major challenge … we will be discussing.”

Korniychuck meets with U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides weekly and refers to the American envoy as a “secret weapon” in his campaign to push the Israelis to change tack and provide military and air defensive support to Kyiv.

“I’m joking, but I’m calling him [Nides] our secret weapon. This is why we discuss the different measures of support, and again, we need to change this major trend that makes Israel’s position different from the rest of the democratic world, and have more military technical cooperation,” he said.

Korniychuck also wants the Biden administration to more forcefully scrutinize how Israel is abiding by Western sanctions on Russia.

While Israeli officials say their absence of sanctions legislation prohibits them from joining the Western-led sanctions campaign against Russia, they had earlier promised the U.S. that they would abide by the international blacklists. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during a visit to Jerusalem in March, said Israeli officials promised him that the country would not be used as a “back door for sanctions evasion.”  

Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes at the Treausry Department, Elizabeth Rosenberg, traveled to Israel in May to meet with government officials and the private sector to brief them on the sanctions regime against Russia. 

A Treasury Department spokesperson told The Hill, “We work closely with partners around the world, including our Israeli partners, to cut off avenues for Russia to evade international sanctions and export controls.”

Korniychuck said the enforcement of sanctions on Russia by Israel is the second most important issue for him, behind acquiring military assistance from Israel. 

“The issue of sanctions is also important and the Americans are in a much better position to check whether the Israelis are following those sanctions or not,” he said. 

Israel is heading to national elections on Nov. 1, the fifth political contest in under four years. The political instability is a wrench in Korniychuck’s ability to press the government for missile and air defense equipment for Kyiv, he said. 

The Ukrainian Embassy in Israel earlier this month reportedly sent a letter to Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs calling for a list of air and missile defense equipment and technology. 

“Step number two is anti-missile system, is something that we’ve been looking for, that we’ve been asking the Israeli government to provide, and this is still on hold,” he said, and added that he understands the government will not address this again until after the election. 

“So presumably, Israel will have a sustainable government, we hopefully will be having … the anti-missile and drone defense,” he said.

“Especially now, when Russia started to collaborate with Iran, that triggers, of course, much greater tensions among the Israeli politicians and military experts, and the [people in the] street to help Ukraine, just because, eventually, Iran becomes part of the coalition against Ukraine.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Democrats scramble to push Fetterman over the finish in Pennsylvania

Democrats in Pennsylvania are scrambling to flip the script on a less-than-stellar performance from Senate candidate John Fetterman during the state’s first and only televised debate and throwing the kitchen sink at pushing him over the finish line. 

With just over a week until Election Day, they are hoping Fetterman can hang on in a state that’s emerged as the center of Democrats’ hopes of retaining control of the Senate.

The conversation immediately after last week’s debate largely surrounded Fetterman’s struggles on stage due to lingering symptoms from a stroke earlier this year and questions about whether he should have debated at all. But Democrats and Fetterman’s campaign quickly turned to Republican nominee Mehmet Oz’s comments on abortion and Fetterman’s impressive post-debate fundraising in a bid to reassure anxious Democrats and appeal to skeptical swing voters.

“There [are] two choices: We rally around or you abandon, and nobody has abandoned John,” said T.J. Rooney, the former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. 

“It’s caused voters, and I can’t say for better or worse, to lean in more and want to know more,” he continued.

Fetterman’s campaign announced on Wednesday that it raised a whopping $2 million in less than 24 hours after the debate, with $1 million of the haul coming during the three hours after the forum. 

Democrats and the campaign are also zeroing in on Oz’s remarks during the debate, particularly his comments saying that the decision to have an abortion should be made between “women, doctors, and local political leaders.” 

Fetterman’s campaign cut an ad hitting Oz over the remarks less than a day after the debate.

President Biden also got in on the attack line against Oz, tweeting on Wednesday, “If Oz gets his way, where does this end?” 

The national Democratic campaign apparatus is also working to go on the offensive against Oz in the days after the debate, rolling out an ad on Friday hitting the Republican over medical views and products he promoted on his show prior to running for office. 

Additionally, Fetterman got a boost from Biden and Vice President Harris, who made a rare joint visit to Philadelphia on Friday to campaign for the Democratic Senate candidate. Biden is slated to return with former President Obama to campaign for Fetterman on Nov. 5. 

Many Republicans are skeptical.

“It’s not accidental that this terrible debate performance that only renewed questions of whether or not he’s able to serve in office happened well after early voting had started,” said Doug Heye, a veteran Republican strategist, arguing that Fetterman’s campaign was not transparent enough in the months after his stroke. 

“[They’ve] backed Democrats into this position of saying you either want the majority or not and this is how you get it,” Heye added. 

Oz’s campaign also announced on Friday it would be airing the debate on a mobile billboard outside of Fetterman’s campaign event with Biden and Harris on Friday evening. 

“There was a clear contrast on the debate stage this week – John Fetterman completely failed to defend any element of his radical record, like his opposition to fracking, his support for releasing convicted murderers, and his plan to raise taxes in the worst inflation in American history,” said Oz’s communications director Brittany Yanick. 

Democrats are also still privately expressing concerns and worrying Fetterman’s performance could mark a turning point in an already tight race. 

“You can’t pretend you didn’t see what you saw. You can’t wish it or explain it away. You have to dig in and deal with it. It’s going to mean they’ll turn the heat up with Oz,” one strategist told The Hill on Tuesday.

Publicly, and with the benefit of days passing, however, Democrats say the situation is less dire.

“Was there some handwringing on Wednesday morning? Sure there was,” Rooney said. “But it didn’t result in disillusionment, it resulted in a doubling down.” 

One Pennsylvania Democratic operative acknowledged the worry, but cautioned that most of the concern was not taking place on the ground in Pennsylvania. 

“The reality is Democrats love to worry and freak out. That is who we are,” the operative said.  “But I do think that worrying exists a lot more in political and media circles than it does in real life.” 

Little polling has been done since the debate, but an Insider Advantage poll conducted on Oct. 26 among 750 voters showed Oz leading Fetterman by 3 points. Fetterman’s once-commanding lead had been narrowing even before the debate, and the RealClearPolitics average now shows Fetterman leading Oz by just 0.3 points.

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) appeared to brush off concerns about the debate’s impact in Pennsylvania while saying Democrats were “going downhill in Georgia” during a conversation with President Biden that was caught on a hot mic on Thursday. 

“It looks like the debate didn’t hurt us too much in Pennsylvania … so that’s good,” Schumer told the president. 

Fetterman’s allies have sought to in part frame the debate over his performance as a disabilities rights issue, arguing that the Democrat’s health issue is not uncommon among Americans.

“I think that most people are just pretty fundamentally decent and are more willing to cut people some slack and give them some time to recovery,” said one Democratic strategist.

Fetterman, himself, has used the issue to connect with voters, most recently at a rally in Pittsburgh the day after the debate.

“How many of you have had your own personal major health challenge?” Fetterman asked. “What about your parents? What about perhaps a grandparent and, God forbid, even a child?” Fetterman asked the crowd.

Democrats are also pointing to Oz’s abortion remarks at the debate, which they say are aiding a Fetterman campaign that has put abortion rights front and center.

“That was the moment of the debate that is clipped now playing everywhere,” said Joe Calvello, a spokesperson for the Fetterman campaign. “This isn’t going to fly with suburban voters out here in the Collar Counties.” 

The other Democratic operative told The Hill that they didn’t believe anyone predicted that there would be as convenient a comment from Oz. 

“The idea that a clip that easy to use and that effective and that useful for us was going to happen, I don’t think anyone expected that,” they said. 

Heye also said that the comments amounted to an unforced error from Oz. 

“Bad comment,” he said. “You have two different arguments. Essentially Democrats were then saying Dr. Oz should not be a senator. Republicans were asking the question of whether or not Fetterman could be a senator. One should not serve, one cannot serve. And that answer allowed that duality to happen.” 

But there are still questions over whether abortion will be a salient enough issue to win over swing voters ahead of Nov. 8 as the cost of goods and fuel continues to rise. 

A Monmouth University poll released earlier this month found that 82 percent of voters said that inflation was “extremely or very important,” while abortion came in seventh on the list of concerns, with 56 percent of voters saying it was “extremely or very important.” 

“For those voters that find themselves undecided, I think that’s a decisionmaker,” Rooney said, referring to the economy. “You can’t allow your opponent to fill in the blanks for you and I do agree with the idea and the belief and the notion that the economy is going to determine how those thoughtful men and women are going to vote and we need to have some meat on the bone to offset the attacks that the other side will offer.” 

Other Democrats argue that Fetterman is aggressively talking about rising costs, pointing to Fetterman’s attacks on oil companies and corporations. 

Fetterman, himself, addressed the issue on MSNBC’s “The Reid Out” on Thursday. 

“We all know that inflation hurts Pennsylvania families,” Fetterman said, referencing record profits from oil companies. “There has never been an oil company that Dr. Oz can take a look at and not want to swipe right about. He is never going to be the kind of senator to stand up and push back about the greed and the price gauging.” 

Source: TEST FEED1