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Court releases body camera footage and 911 call from Paul Pelosi attack

Police body camera footage and a 911 call from the brutal October 2022 attack on then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) husband Paul Pelosi in their San Francisco home was made public on Friday.

The San Francisco Superior Court released the video and call alongside other evidence after a coalition of news organizations argued they should be made public. Prosecutors had declined to release the video to the media out of concern it could be manipulated to spread false information NBC reported, while lawyers for accused Pelosi attacker David DePape argued the release could “irreparably damage” his right to a fair trial, CNN reported.

False information and conspiracy theories, some of which were boosted by tech billionaire Elon Musk and former President Trump, quickly spread in the immediate aftermath of the attack. Friday’s released evidence further debunks those theories.

Former Speaker Pelosi declined to comment on the video soon after its release on Friday.

“I’m not going to say anything right now, I may shortly,” Pelosi told reporters.

Police say DePape, then 42, broke through the back door of the Pelosi home, later telling authorities that he was hoping to target Speaker Pelosi and break her kneecaps. She was not home at the time, but he found her 82-year-old husband Paul Pelosi, who awoke to the intruder. While talking to DePape, Pelosi went into a bathroom where he was able to grab a phone to make a 911 call.

The 911 call in the wee hours of Oct. 28 starts with Pelosi being heard saying that he guesses he just called by mistake.

“There’s a gentleman here just waiting for my wife to come back,” Pelosi tells the operator when she asks if everything is okay.

Asked if he needed police, fire, or medical assistance, Pelosi responded that he did not think so. He then asks if the Capitol Police are around.

DePape’s muffled voice can be heard in the background.

“I’ve got a problem, but he thinks everything’s good,” Pelosi says on the call. “The gentleman just came into the house, and he wants to wait here for my wife to come home.” 

Asked if he knows who the man is, Pelosi says he does not.

“He’s telling me to put the phone down and do what he says,” Pelosi says.

The operator asks the man’s name, and DePape says his name is David. 

“I’m a friend of theirs,” DePape said. Pelosi says he does not know who the man is.

The graphic video depicts two police officers knocking on Pelosi’s door a short time later. 

The door opens to the DePape and Pelosi both grasping a hammer.

“Hi, how are you doing?” an officer says. “What’s going on, man?” 

“Everything’s good,” DePape responds. 

During the exchange, DePape grabs the hammer with both hands while Pelosi has just one hand on the hammer, holding a glass in the other. 

“Drop the hammer,” an officer says.

“Ah, nope,” DePape says.

“Hey! Hey, hey, hey,” Pelosi says as a struggle for the hammer ensues.

“What is going on right now?” an officer says. 

In a matter of seconds, DePape wriggles the hammer free from Pelosi’s grasp, and takes a large swing at Pelosi inside of the house, just out of view of the camera.

“Oh, shit,” an officer says as the two officers rush in to peel DePape off Pelosi. 

Pelosi is seen laying face down on the ground, and a pool of blood can be seen around his head. The officers restrain DePape.

Just over 30 seconds elapsed from the first knock on the door to DePape taking a swing at Pelosi.

Pelosi suffered a skull fracture as well as several injuries to his arm and hand.

DePape has pleaded not guilty to six charges, including attempted murder.

Mychael Schnell contributed. Updated at 1:47 p.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

DirecTV dropping Newsmax: Just business or political bias?

DirecTV’s decision this week to drop Newsmax is the latest blow to a handful of conservative media outlets that have sought to carve out a space for themselves in the wake of former President Trump’s election loss in 2020. 

While the far-right ecosystem has exploded over the decision, with figures including Trump accusing DirecTV of political bias, media experts say Newsmax is simply seeking to bolster its bargaining power as it struggles with low ratings. 

“This is no different than the contract disputes that arise every few years between sports channels and DirecTV, Comcast, etc.,” said Dave Karpf, an associate professor at George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs. 

“They’re fighting over fee structures. Negotiations broke down. Newsmax is trying to expand the conflict, in the hopes that viewer outrage and a few letters on congressional stationery will strengthen their negotiating position.” 

For years, Fox News has served as the top dog in conservative cable news, commanding an audience of more than a million people per day on average last year. Smaller, less-watched networks like Newsmax and One America News (OAN) that cater to a conservative audience experienced a bump after Trump promoted them to his supporters in the days after the election.  

Today, those channels are jockeying to stay relevant without Trump in office, while competition for viewership across cable news more generally is growing increasingly fierce with more Americans dropping their cable subscriptions. 

Newsmax pulled in an average of less than 150,000 total day viewers in 2022, compared to the average 1.4 million people who watched Fox News, 733,000 who watched MSNBC and 568,000 who watched CNN.

The breakdown between Newsmax and DirecTV this week hinged on carrier fees, which DirecTV pays to broadcast various networks, including prominent cable news channels like Fox News, CNN and MSNBC. 

Under its previous agreement with Newsmax, which has an audience that is dwarfed by other leading cable news channels, DirecTV paid no carrier fees. 

Newsmax contends DirecTV’s decision is based on political bias and has used the episode to renew claims of censorship against conservatives in the media, a line of attack peddled by Republicans for years. 

“This is a blatant act of political discrimination and censorship against Newsmax,” the network’s CEO, Chris Ruddy, said this week. “The most extreme liberal channels, even with tiny ratings, get fees from AT&T’s DirecTV, but Newsmax and OAN need to be deplatformed.”

DirecTV, in a statement to The Hill, said it “made it clear to Newsmax that we wanted to continue to offer the network,” but ultimately the network’s demands for rate increases “would have led to significantly higher costs that we would have to pass on to our broad customer base.”

It added that it would “fill this available channel with new content” and on Thursday announced the addition of conservative opinion and commentary network The First to its lineup. 

Newsmax isn’t the only smaller conservative cable network to find itself left out in the cold by cable providers. 

Last year, DirecTV and Verizon ended their contracts with the San Diego-based OAN following an aggressive pressure campaign from critics who argued the content on OAN was harmful. Newsmax remains on a number of other cable providers. 

“Corporations don’t want to pay money for content that is not of value to them and it’s in Newsmax’s interest to create a lot of Sturm und Drang around this,” said Matt Gertz, a senior fellow at Media Matters for America, a liberal media watchdog that has been involved in extensive pressure campaigns to get conservative networks taken off the air. 

“That there’s some sort of political censorship going on, because that’s a much better story to tell their viewers … rather than acknowledging that their product is not worth enough to this carrier for them to distribute it.” 

Hosts on Newsmax, several of whom are longtime allies of Trump, are expressing outrage about the expiration of the agreement with DirecTV and have urged viewers to lobby their elected officials to investigate the matter. 

“If you are a DirecTV customer or even an AT&T customer of their products, like a cellphone, you can call them and ask them to oppose woke companies. You can also cancel their services outright,” Newsmax host Rob Finnerty said on his show this week. 

Trump himself has panned the cable provider’s move and is using it in his political messaging ahead of the 2024 presidential election. 

“The Radical Left seems to have taken over the mind and soul of AT&T. This is a big blow to the Republican Party, and to America itself,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. “For DIRECTV to drop very popular NEWSMAX, without explanation, will not be accepted. I, for one, will be dropping all association with AT&T and DIRECTV, and I have plenty. This is just one of many reasons why we must WIN IN 2024!!!”

Newsmax has found support on Capitol Hill amid its ongoing fight with DirecTV. 

In a letter sent last week, a group of several dozen House Republicans, led by Rep. Wesley Hunt (Texas), sent a letter to DirecTV threatening to investigate its decision to allow the contract to expire.

“This is extremely concerning for Members of Congress because it suppresses political discourse and hamstrings our ability to connect with our constituents,” the Republicans wrote in their letter. 

“If Newsmax is removed from DirecTV, in less than a year House Republicans will have lost two of the three cable news channels that reach conservative voters on a platform that primarily serves conservative-leaning areas of the country.” 

Yet some media and political observers say those claims don’t hold up. 

“Claims that DirecTV’s position is political bias are ridiculous. This is a business decision. Newsmax scores only a fraction of the audience that Fox News and CNN draw at any hour of the day,” said Joe Peyronnin, a former broadcast news executive. 

“If Newsmax wants to be paid, it should provide viewers more engaging, relevant and compelling content.”

Source: TEST FEED1

FBI arrests three men in Iranian murder-for-hire-plot of U.S. journalist, activist

At least three men have been arrested in a murder-for-hire plot allegedly sponsored by Iran that targeted a U.S. journalist and human rights activist who is a prominent critic of Tehran, Attorney General Merrick Garland announced Friday. 

All three of the defendants are expected to stand trial, Garland added, with two of the men in U.S. custody and a third awaiting extradition. 

“These charges arise out of an ongoing investigation into the government of Iran’s efforts to assassinate, on U.S. soil, a journalist, author and human rights activist who is a U.S. citizen of Iranian origin,” Garland said during a press conference.

While Garland did not name the victim, it is believed to be Masih Alinejad, a prominent critic of the Islamic Republic who was earlier the target of a kidnapping plot that was disrupted by the FBI and revealed in an unsealed indictment in July 2021. 

Alinejad on Friday identified herself as the victim of the murder-for-hire plot, writing and posting a video on Twitter that she met with 12 FBI agents in New York where she learned that the three men were arrested. 

“This is the face of a person who was the target of an assassination plot,” Alinejad said in the video. 

“Let me make it clear, I am not scared for my life because I knew that killing, assassinating, hanging, torturing, raping is in the DNA in the Islamic Republic. That’s why I came to the United States of America to practice my right, my freedom of expression to give voice of brave people of Iran to say no to Islamic Republic.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Biden confirms Zients to replace Klain as chief of staff

President Biden on Friday confirmed that Ron Klain will step down as chief of staff and be replaced by Jeff Zients, with a transition event to be held next week.

Biden made official what had been reported last week, thanking Klain for his service and crediting him with helping to achieve major accomplishments during the first two years of the Biden administration.

“Next week, the White House will host an official transition event to thank Ron for his tireless work and officially welcome Jeff back to the White House in this role,” Biden said in a statement.

Biden pointed to progress fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, making economic gains, passing legislation to address climate change, confirming the first Black woman to the Supreme Court and appointing nearly 100 federal judges as major milestones during Klain’s time as chief of staff.

Biden also noted Klain is well-liked by White House staff members, praising his approach to the job.

“When I was elected President, I knew that I wanted Ron to lead the White House staff.  He was uniquely qualified given his prior public service,” Biden said. “He knows how government works, how politics works, how Congress and the White House works. He is as tough, smart, determined, and persistent as anyone I have ever met. He assembled the most diverse and the most talented White House team in history and leaned on them to solve impossible challenges.”

Replacing Klain will be Zients, who worked with Biden during the Obama administration as the head of the Office of Management and Budget and was the man tasked with fixing issues with healthcare.gov. 

More recently, Zients led Biden’s coronavirus response team for the first year Biden was president.

“When I ran for office, I promised to make government work for the American people. That’s what Jeff does. A big task ahead is now implementing the laws we’ve gotten passed efficiently and fairly,” Biden said. “I’m confident that Jeff will continue Ron’s example of smart, steady leadership, as we continue to work hard every day for the people we were sent here to serve.”

Klain will depart after roughly two years as chief of staff, a long tenure in any White House. He has worked alongside Biden for decades and held various jobs on Capitol Hill and in the executive branch, including as chief of staff to Biden when he was vice president.

Zients has been hailed as an expert manager who is able to solve complex problems, and White House allies believe he will be an asset as attention shifts to implementing laws passed during Biden’s first two years.

Some have noted he lacks the political experience of Klain, indicating more of the burden may be shifted to other top White House aides like Anita Dunn and Jen O’Malley Dillon as Biden prepares to balance governing with a likely 2024 reelection campaign.

Progressives, who built a strong relationship with Klain, may also be wary of Zients given his extensive background in the corporate world.

White House staff had avoided publicly confirming the news of Klain’s coming departure since it was first reported, but on Friday multiple officials offered their appreciation to Klain for his time in the building.

“As I said earlier this week, @WHCOS has been an incredible leader and boss,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre tweeted. “And I will always be a Klainiac. I’m grateful for everything Ron has done — for the White House and for America. Congratulations and thank you for your service to our country.”

“There were tough days, but Ron’s vision was always clear: Securing legislative wins and effective implementation that put our economy on stronger, sustainable, more resilient path. A great leader. A true American hero,” Heather Boushey, a member of the Council of Economic Advisers, tweeted.

Updated at 9:50 a.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

The Hill's Morning Report — Amid economic uncertainty, Biden clashes with GOP

Editor’s note: The Hill’s Morning Report is our daily newsletter that dives deep into Washington’s agenda. To subscribe, click here or fill out the box below.

President Biden and many workers, investors and businesses are wondering whether the economy will begin to seriously sag later this year.

The president, relying on his economic advisers, has said he “does not anticipate” a recession. Biden’s reelection bid, which he’s expected to clarify within weeks, could turn on that bet.

As the year begins, one of the maddening truths about economic experts is that they are not in agreement. They argue over whether the Federal Reserve is driving the economy into the tarmac or achieving a soft landing with interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation. They complain publicly that available data lags up-to-the-minute, global uncertainties. Then they gaze into the history books for predictions of a possible 2023 recessionary cycle.

The government on Thursday said U.S. growth in the fourth quarter was 2.9 percent. The New York Times called it “solid growth.” Economic analysts reacted with foreboding, arguing that “under the hood,” the report revealed troublesome numbers on imports and inventories, suggesting a slowdown in business sectors. Consumer demand, responsible for the bulk of U.S. growth, is healthy but has slowed. The experts interviewed by news outlets all have a caveat: They want more data.

Bloomberg Businessweek called it “a tricky call” while trying to explain what’s so tricky: “Among those surveyed by Bloomberg, the consensus is that the effects of tighter credit on corporate investment and hiring, as well as consumer spending, won’t translate into a contraction in gross domestic product until the second quarter. Yet many anticipate the damage — at least from a jobs perspective — will be slight compared with earlier episodes.”

Translation: Recession ahead, but perhaps without massive unemployment and crippling consumer jitters.

On Thursday, the government reported that filings for unemployment benefits last week dropped, even amid announced layoffs in the tech world. There are technical reasons why those layoffs have not shown up in the data. But those who study the details told The Hill’s Sylvan Lane that the persistence of low weekly jobless claims is a sign that laid-off workers still have plenty of chances to find new jobs in a resilient economy.

The Wall Street Journal: Layoffs spread beyond high-growth tech titans. Dow, IBM and SAP say they will lay off thousands of workers as belt-tightening becomes the new business priority.

On Wall Street and at the White House, eyes are trained on the Fed, which will announce its next move on Wednesday, predicted to be an interest rate hike of 25 basis points — and with it, a clear indication that the central bank is not done throttling inflation with more hikes.

Biden, weighing economic unknowns and the political complications that are crystal clear, tells Americans that inflation is down, gas prices have fallen, and that job growth and wages have been strong under his tenure. In case those boasts begin to sound hollow — gas prices are up again, for instance — the president’s backup argument is that things would be worse for most Americans under GOP policies.

On Thursday, he traveled to Virginia to warn in a speech that House Republicans, now in the majority, want to raise gas taxes, cut taxes for billionaires and favor a national sales tax of 30 percent. The president, in his first major economic speech of the year, pledged to reject any such bills (Reuters).

“Not on my watch, I will veto everything they send us,” he said.

Note: Most if not all House-passed legislation is expected to die in the Democratic-led Senate, never making it to his desk.

Biden said that House conservatives who refuse to approve additional Treasury borrowing to pay the nation’s bills unless Democrats agree to deep spending cuts will not get what they want with threats of default.

“I will not let anyone use the full faith and credit of the United States as a bargaining chip,” he said (The Hill).

Related Articles

▪ The Hill and The Wall Street Journal: IBM plans to lay off 3,900 employees.

▪ CNBC: Hasbro cuts 15 percent of its workforce.

▪ Barrons: Why a stock market obsessed with the Fed’s inflation fight should focus on Main Street jobs in 2023.

▪ Bloomberg Businessweek feature: Elon Musk’s epic quest for LOLs is only hurting Tesla. “Musk’s tragic flaw is his inability to accept that he’s extremely, painfully unfunny.”

▪ CBS News: Musk’s company, Tesla, on Wednesday reported record year-over-year profits.

   LEADING THE DAY

➤ POLITICS

A super PAC supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) for president in 2024 will have a presence at this weekend’s New Hampshire GOP meeting, planting its flag in the state for the Florida governor and potentially setting up a clash with former President Trump, who will also be in attendance, writes The Hill’s Brett Samuels. 

“Ron to the Rescue,” the only super PAC thus far actively organizing support for DeSantis as the GOP nominee, will attend Saturday’s annual meeting in New Hampshire. John Thomas, a GOP consultant who founded the group, described it as the super PAC’s “first significant coming out event at a party event.” The group will be collecting signatures to build up its team on the ground in the Granite State and unveiling a list of former New Hampshire Republican elected officials who are backing DeSantis over Trump ahead of next year’s primary. 

As Trump prepares for his first public events since announcing his presidential campaign, dozens of members of the Republican National Committee (RNC) are expressing doubts about his ability to win back the White House and are calling for a competitive primary to produce a stronger nominee in 2024. The 168 members of the RNC are gathering in Southern California to select their own leader on Friday, and The New York Times found few eager to name Trump as their nominee for a third time.

Republican National Committee members will elect a new chair of the party on Friday, ending a race that has seen Ronna McDaniel’s RNC leadership tested by two rivals. McDaniel, who has led the RNC since being tapped by Trump to the role in 2016, is being challenged by Harmeet Dhillon, a legal adviser to Trump’s 2020 campaign; and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell (The Hill).

▪ The Hill: DeSantis weighed in for Dhillon.

▪ WMUR: Trump to speak in New Hampshire at the annual meeting of state Republicans.

▪ Reuters: Trump seeks to shift his idling White House campaign back into gear.

Trump risks losing access to his Facebook account again unless he changes the style of content he posts as part of new guardrails added by Meta, write The Hill’s Rebecca Klar and Brett Samuels. While Meta is letting the 2024 candidate back on its platforms, his posts on his Truth Social platform, which has more lax content enforcement, would run afoul of Meta’s standards that accompany his reinstatement.

The Hill’s The Memo: Trump tries to turn the page, on social media and campaign trail.

Also heating up is the 2024 California Senate race, where Rep. Adam Schiff (D) on Thursday announced his candidacy for the seat currently held by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), 89, joining other Democrats poised to compete for a promotion to the upper chamber. Schiff’s announcement follows Rep. Katie Porter (D) jumping into the race earlier this month. Feinstein has not said whether she will run for a sixth term but is expected to retire. Others, including Reps. Barbara Lee (D) and Ro Khanna (D), are also said to be plotting potential campaigns for the seat.

“I have just tremendous respect for her and — more than respect — admiration and affection,” Schiff told the Los Angeles Times of Feinstein. He said he informed her of his plans and spoke to her on Wednesday (The Hill).

Vox: Schiff just made California’s Senate race a whole lot messier.

Senate Democrats say the agenda they discussed among themselves this week essentially boils down to the annual defense bill and the farm bill, with nominations sprinkled in, writes The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. After going big and bold in the 117th Congress, Democrats are playing it safe heading into 2024 with 23 Senate seats on the line, including in Republican-leaning states such as West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. 

The National Archives is asking former presidents and vice presidents to re-check their personal records for any classified documents or other presidential records in the wake of discoveries at the residences of Trump, Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence since the summer. The Archives on Thursday sent a letter to representatives of former presidents and vice presidents from the past six presidential administrations covered by the Presidential Records Act — from former President Reagan’s White House to the present.

“The responsibility to comply with the [records law] does not diminish after the end of an administration,” the letter states. “Therefore, we request that you conduct an assessment of any materials … previously assumed to be personal in nature might inadvertently contain Presidential or Vice Presidential records … whether classified or unclassified.”

Former President Carter didn’t receive a letter from the Archives because he’s technically exempt. The law he enacted took effect after he left office (CNN).

Bloomberg News: FBI Director Christopher Wray says classified document laws “are there for a reason.”

➤ CONGRESS

A GOP-backed bill aimed at abolishing the tax code as we know it is getting a lot of attention, but its fate is far from certain in the lower chamber as it faces an avalanche from opposition from Democrats and even Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), write The Hill’s Tobias Burns and Aris Folley. The Fair Tax Act was thrust into the national spotlight earlier this month after reports emerged that it was agreed it be brought to the floor for a vote as part of negotiations between McCarthy and his GOP detractors during the days-long ballot to secure the Speaker gavel earlier this month. 

But as the bill becomes fodder for growing Democratic attacks, including from the White House, more Republicans are distancing themselves from the legislation. 

▪ Vox: FairTax, the GOP plan for a 30 percent national sales tax, explained.

▪ The Hill: House lawmakers launch the “Congressional Dads Caucus.”

▪ Roll Call: The Senate’s slow start to 2023 rolls on. The upper chamber took two roll call votes, but is still waiting for an organizing resolution.

House Republicans have called top health officials to Capitol Hill to testify about the Biden administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Bloomberg News reports. The now-GOP controlled House Energy and Commerce Committee is planning a public hearing for Feb. 8 to interrogate leaders from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration, the National Institutes of Health, and the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response.

ABC News: Five women, immense power: Can they keep the U.S. from a fiscal brink?

Truth & Consequences? Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) remains firmly in the headlines.

A set of updated campaign finance reports are deepening the mystery surrounding the source of high-dollar loans that Santos made to his campaign last year, writes The Hill’s Max Greenwood. 

Santos’s campaign previously reported that a pair of six-figure loans from the candidate — one for $500,000 that was made last March and another for $125,000 in October — came from his personal funds. But in an amended filing with the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday, Santos’s campaign unchecked a box indicating that the $500,000 loan came from personal funds. Similarly, a separate updated report left the same box unchecked for the $125,000 loan. The changes were first reported by The Daily Beast. 

Further complicating the matter is the fact that filings from later in 2022 still mark the $500,000 loan as coming from personal funds, leaving the source of the money unclear. Campaign finance experts are struggling to unpack the latest disclosures from Santos’s campaign, which they say are riddled with potential errors and discrepancies. 

▪ Politico: As Santos digs in, both parties ramp up campaign plans for his demise.

▪ The New York Times: Santos says he has a new treasurer. The treasurer does not agree.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL

The Hill’s Brad Dress reports that Ukraine’s breakthrough in securing heavy tanks from the U.S. and Germany this week has quickly ignited debate over whether world-class fighter jets could be next. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long sought air defenses, a no-fly zone and fixed-wing fighter jets from allies (The Hill). Kyiv operates a fleet of aging Soviet aircraft and has requested Western, modern fighter jets since the onset of the war — but so far it has remained out of the nation’s grasp. But Ukraine has gradually secured more advanced weaponry from the U.S. and European allies, and it’s likely American-made F-16s will follow that same course, experts say. 

▪ Politico: U.S. to send Ukraine more advanced Abrams tanks — but no secret armor.

▪ The Washington Post: Ukraine faces logistics hurdles ahead of tank deliveries.

▪ CNBC: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demands more sanctions as Ukraine reels from Russian bombardment; explosions heard near nuclear power plant.

▪ Reuters: A Russian graveyard reveals Wagner’s prisoner army.

▪ The Washington Post: What is the Wagner group, the Russian mercenary outfit in Ukraine?

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Wagner group designated by the U.S. as a transnational criminal group.

▪ The New York Times guest essay by journalist Mikhail Zygar: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner group and the man who may challenge Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russia launched several volleys of missiles at Ukraine on Thursday, with strikes reported across the country killing at least 11 people, the authorities said. The attacks follow the promise of tanks for Ukraine, and as it has for months, Moscow targeted energy infrastructure, Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, said in a post on Telegram (The New York Times). 

“The main goal is energy facilities, providing Ukrainians with light and heat,” he said.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Russia’s war on Ukraine changed global oil trade. Here is what it looks like now.

▪ NBC News: U.S. troops killed Bilal al-Sudani, a senior leader of the Islamic State terrorist group, and 10 other ISIS fighters in an overnight assault operation in northern Somalia ordered by Biden.

▪ The New York Times: In China’s crackdown on protesters, a familiar effort to blame foreign powers.

▪ Reuters: Israeli troops kill seven Palestinian gunmen, two civilians in Thursday’s Jenin clash, Palestinians say.

▪ Reuters: Israel hits Gaza as conflict flares after West Bank clashes.

▪ The Washington Post: These Peruvians depend on Machu Picchu to survive. They shut it down anyway.

➤ ADMINISTRATION

Biden is considering a trip to Europe next month to mark a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. The White House has not made a final decision but is exploring ways and locations in which the president could showcase allied unity and Ukraine’s resilience against Russia‘s war as the conflict enters a new phase, NBC News reported.

The president anticipates a busy February, including a scheduled event with Vice President Harris on Feb. 3 in Philadelphia, his televised State of the Union address on Feb. 7 and domestic travel to contrast Democrats’ agenda with the GOP while leaning into what is expected to be his bid for reelection.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel next week to Egypt, Israel and the West Bank, the department confirmed on Thursday and Haaretz reported early this week. The secretary will meet with Israeli leadership on Monday and Palestinian leadership on Tuesday as the Biden administration seeks an understanding with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new hard-line government (The Times of Israel).

Reuters: Biden is moving to restart Trump-era rapid asylum screenings at the U.S.-Mexico border in an attempt to address a record number of illegal crossings.

OPINION

■ We profiled the “signs of crisis” in 50 years of mass shootings. This is what we found, by Jillian Peterson and James Densley, contributors, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/3kGQwwB  

■ Turkey, Finland and Sweden: Strategic patience, but with a deadline, by John R. Deni, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/3ZYgbRA

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 INVITATION to The Hill’s virtual newsmaker event TODAY, 2 p.m. ET, with Heather Boushey, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, in discussion with The Hill’s Sylvan Lane. RSVP and join live.

📲 Ask The Hill: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.

The House will convene at 9 a.m.

The Senate meets at 3 p.m. on Monday.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. He will depart the White House at 5:30 p.m. for Camp David in Maryland, where he will remain through the weekend.

The vice president at 2 p.m. will host an event at the White House focused on accelerating replacement of lead pipes in communities. She will participate in a moderated conversation with Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan.  

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in South Africa, where she will visit the coal mining region of Mpumalanga and emphasize the U.S. commitment to South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnership. The secretary will tour a job training facility funded by the United States and deliver remarks after joining a roundtable with local women working in the renewable energy sector. She also will tour the Apartheid Museum in Johannesburg.

The secretary of State and United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai will host a virtual event at 1 p.m. for the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1:30 p.m.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff is in Krakow, Poland. He will tour the Auschwitz-Birkenau State Memorial and Museum and participate in candle-lighting and wreath-laying ceremonies. To mark International Holocaust Remembrance Day, he will attend the commemoration of the 78th anniversary of the liberation of the German Nazi concentration and extermination camp Auschwitz. Emhoff will attend a Shabbat dinner hosted by the Jewish Community Center with members of the Krakow Jewish community. He will be in Poland through Sunday and in Germany next week. 

ELSEWHERE

➤ NEWS MEDIA

BuzzFeed’s stock soared 150 percent on Thursday after it became public that it will use ChapGPT’s AI to create some content for readers. The decision marks a milestone in how media companies implement the new technology into their businesses. Jonah Peretti, BuzzFeed’s co-founder and chief executive, told employees in a memo that they can expect “AI inspired content” to “move from an R&D stage to part of our core business” (CNN). BuzzFeed envisions using the technology to create quizzes and to “personalize” some of its content. The company for now will not use artificial intelligence to help write news stories, a spokesperson told CNN.

A recent decision by DirecTV to let its carrier agreement with conservative cable network Newsmax expire is the latest blow to a handful of conservative media outlets that have sought to carve out a space for themselves in the wake of Trump’s election loss in 2020 (The Hill). Newsweek reports that Trump will lose access to millions of potential viewers Saturday at the first rally of his 2024 campaign because of Newsmax’s disappearance from DirecTV.  

▪ CNN: Mega-publisher Dotdash Meredith cuts 7 percent of its workforce, citing weakened ad market.

▪ Axios: Media layoffs 2023: Vox, NBC News, The Washington Post cut workers.

➤ HEALTH & PANDEMIC

A Food and Drug Administration advisory committee on Thursday voted in favor of rolling out a simpler COVID-19 vaccination strategy that would be less confusing and ideally encourage more people to get the jabs. The panel would like to periodically target the same viral strain or strains for initial COVID-19 shots and boosters, regardless of the vaccine’s manufacturer. Under the proposal, most people would be offered a single shot in the fall. Older people, young children and people with compromised immune systems might be offered multiple shots spaced some time apart instead of a single shot. The vote for the change was unanimous: 21-0 (NPR). 

“We can’t keep doing what we’re doing. We have to move on,” said Bruce Gellin, a physician and leading vaccine and infectious disease expert who is chief of global public health strategy at the Rockefeller Foundation. Gallin is a temporary voting member on the FDA panel. “I think this is a reasonable approach,” he added.

The Atlantic: What we actually know about how COVID-19 spreads.

Information about the availability of COVID-19 vaccine and booster shots can be found at Vaccines.gov.

In states where abortion is no longer protected by law, nearly half of residents say abortion access has narrowed in the months since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade. As the Hill’s Daniel de Visé writes, a small but significant number of Americans now know someone who has traveled across state lines for an abortion, undergone a birth-control procedure or delayed having a baby since the Dobbs ruling. And, as a new IPSOS-NPR poll reflects, the country has entered a divisive new reality: In roughly half of the states, a Republican majority wants to make abortion harder for Americans to access. In the other half, Democratic majorities want it available to all. But most Americans say abortion should be legal in most or all cases.

▪ NPR: Many Americans don’t know basic abortion facts. Test your knowledge.

▪ The New York Times: How do heavy metals like lead get in baby food?

▪ The Washington Post: New study finds six ways to slow memory decline and lower dementia risk.

▪ U.S. News and World Report: Older people with hearing loss were more likely to develop dementia, according to research that suggests hearing aids — which are now available over-the-counter at much lower prices — may reduce this risk.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,107,559. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 3,756 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

THE CLOSER

And finally … 👏👏👏 Bravo to this week’s Morning Report Quiz winners! Puzzlers had smart guesses about big cats, our theme this week with a hat tip to many headlines about Leopard 2 tanks.

🐆 Here’s who roared to victory, going 4/4: Richard Baznik, Ted Kontek, Mary Anne McEnery, Patrick Kavanagh, Cliff Grulke, Kody Kirk, Amanda Fisher, Bill Grieshober, Lou Tisler, Daniel Bachhuber, Stan Wasser, Ki Harvey, Lesa Davis, Richard Fanning, Luther Berg, Pam Manges, Mark Roeddinger, Randall Patrick, Robert Bradley, Laura Rettaliata, Terry Pflaumer, Steve James, Eric Truax, Harry Strulovici, Jerry LaCamera and J.A. Ramos.

Readers knew that among our list of big cat options, lions are considered social animals. 

NFL’s whiskered nod to a big cat? How about the Carolina Panthers, the Detroit Lions and the Jacksonville Jaguars — which means “all of the above” was the answer we needed to see.

The only big cat native to North America is the jaguar.

Beautiful and fast, leopards can run up to 36 mph, according to researchers. Video compilation HERE. 🐾

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

Key Republicans oppose House GOP bill to abolish tax code

Republican supporters of a bill aimed at abolishing the tax code as we know it are running into an early barrier in the House: their own leadership.

The Fair Tax Act was thrust into the spotlight earlier this month as reports emerged that it was part of a deal made by Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) with his GOP detractors during the days-long process to elect him Speaker.

But as the bill becomes fodder for growing Democratic attacks from the White House down, some Republicans are distancing themselves from the legislation.

McCarthy made clear his opposition to the bill when pressed by reporters earlier this week. He said the bill “would have to go through committee” when asked on Wednesday if he planned to bring it up for a floor vote. 

House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R) said Thursday that he didn’t support the bill, instead telling The Hill that he backs making permanent the tax cuts in former President Trump’s signature 2017 tax bill.

“We made the code more simplified and got rid of a lot of loopholes, and so I want to see us continue focusing on the fairness and simplicity of a tax code,” Scalise argued. 

The Fair Tax Act, introduced by Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), would constitute the largest change to the U.S. system in decades — maybe ever — and would all but abolish the tax code.

It would eliminate all income taxes, payroll taxes, estate taxes and gift taxes in favor of an outsized 30-percent sales tax that would be collected by states and then remitted to the federal Treasury. The new method of taxation would render the IRS, as it currently exists, all but obsolete.

Some Republicans have expressed interest in the idea of a national sales tax but have yet to sign onto the legislative effort. 

“It’s an interesting idea … if everybody pays in a portion, everybody has his skin in the game,” Rep. Randy Weber (R-Texas) said of the idea, adding that “it can be doable, but I have to see those parameters.”

However, the push has not gone without criticism from others in the conference.

“I don’t think it’s a wise thing,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told The Hill on Wednesday, saying he doesn’t think “it’s smart politics or policy.”

Bacon claimed the plan for the bill was initially understood to be that leaders would bring it “to the floor for a vote.” But said he called on GOP leadership to allow the measure to “go through regular order” instead.

“I asked that it be [brought] to committee and studied and marked up, not just brought on the floor,” he said, adding that “if you do it the normal way, bad bolts get rooted out or they get amended.”

Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), who chairs the Ways and Means Committee, has said the bill will get a hearing, telling Axios earlier this week that McCarthy “believes everything should work in regular order.”

“We’re going to have a public, transparent hearing on that issue and we’ll see where it goes from there,” he said. 

Whether the bill will ever make it out of the House, or even survive in committee, is far from certain. 

“Any member can file a bill,” Scalise said. “That doesn’t mean the bill is going to pass the committee or pass the floor.”

“That’s why we went back to regular order,” he added. “We got rid of a lot of the [former Speaker Nancy] Pelosi [(D-Calif.)] rules, where a bill is written in the Speaker’s office and dumped on everybody. You know, take it or leave it. That’s not how we’re doing business.”

The bill has about 30 GOP co-sponsors and faces overwhelming opposition from Democrats, who have been taking hits at the novel legislation like it were a piñata.

“This ‘Fair Tax Act’ is truly foul stuff,” Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on the Senate floor Thursday. “The Republican tax plan would raise the cost of buying a house by $125,000. It would raise the cost of buying a car by $10,000. It would raise your average grocery bill by $3,500 a year at a time when people are already worried about the high price of groceries. How can they do this?”

“Things like eggs are already too expensive, but Republicans want to slap another $1.50 to that price. The plan would make a gallon of milk cost another $1.70 more,” Schumer added.

Democrats have been keen to ignore the fact that the bill cancels income and payroll taxes, focusing instead on the sticker shock of the cost increases in consumer goods that the flat sales tax would bring, in light of recent inflation.

“Eggs, gas, rent, child care, health insurance, cars, formula, diapers, urgent care visits, clothes, shoes, insulin, tampons, utilities, milk, bread, school supplies, life-saving medication, and more. All of this will cost 30 percent more if Republicans get their way,” Democrats on the chief tax-writing Ways and Means Committee wrote online on Thursday.

Analyses of similar tax reform proposals, which have floated around Capitol Hill since the 1990s, found that the bill would decrease taxes on the wealthy while increasing the tax burden on low- and middle-earners. This makes it a regressive tax, meaning that the taxes are greater for people who make less money. That’s because lower earners tend to spend most or all of their paychecks, making their entire income subject to sales taxes, while higher earners tend to be able to save parts of their income, effectively sheltering them from such taxes.

A study commissioned by the administration of former President George W. Bush, which also considered the sales tax reform, found that people making between $15,000 and $200,000 a year would see their taxes increase under the plan, while people making more than $200,000 a year would see their share of the national tax burden decrease by 7.6 percentage points.

The tax is so regressive that the legislation includes a “prebate” — a cash transfer program that would send out monthly checks to families to make sure the tax doesn’t eat too much into their monthly income.

Asked about the pushback his bill has received in recent weeks, Carter brushed off the criticisms, saying Washington “is about big ideas” while inviting his colleagues “who have reservations about this to help me.”

“Offer amendments. How can we make it better? Is it the perfect bill? No, but I have not seen a perfect bill since I’ve been up here,” said Carter, who came to Congress in 2015.

Mike Lillis and Mychael Schnell contributed.

Source: TEST FEED1

The Memo: Trump tries to turn the page, on social media and campaign trail

Former President Trump faces a challenge and an opportunity Saturday when he heads to New Hampshire and, a few hours later, South Carolina.

On one hand, Trump is trying to shake off the sense that his campaign has gotten off to a slow start; that his political standing has declined through a series of missteps that began at the midterm elections; and that the GOP’s appetite to move on from him has grown sharper.

On the other hand, Trump is still the front-runner in the race and has a chance to build new momentum: He has recently been told that he will be reinstated to Facebook and Instagram after his Jan. 6-related bans, and he is now beginning to dip back into the public events from which he seems to draw energy.

Trump’s 2024 campaign has already had one notable failure right off the bat. It failed to establish his dominance or intimidate other possible contenders from coming forward, despite getting into the race at such an unusually early stage.

Trump declared his candidacy on Nov 15, exactly one week after the midterms, in a meandering speech at Mar-a-Lago.

But Former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley are all obviously mulling making their own White House runs. 

Pompeo earlier this week told Gayle King of CBS News that Trump’s decision would have no impact on his own choice at all. 

Haley has plainly reversed her earlier pledge not to run if Trump did so, and has taken some thinly veiled shots at the former president. At a speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition soon after the midterms, she lamented GOP infighting — often sparked by Trump — and added that voters “don’t want chaos. They want strength and stability and unity.”

Following those remarks, it is notable that Trump has chosen Haley’s native South Carolina for his first major event of the year. Trump will be joined in the Palmetto State by Gov. Henry McMaster (R) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a clear example that he still enjoys strong institutional support.

In the big picture, however, Trump’s return to major social media platforms may be more important than any of these early moves in public campaigning.

His reinstatement to Meta’s main platforms, Facebook and Instagram, was announced on Wednesday. Nick Clegg, the president of global affairs at the internet giant, said that there would be “new guardrails in place” to prevent offenses “related to civil unrest,” among other things.

Trump’s reinstatement is not immediate, but Clegg said it would happen “in the coming weeks.”

The decision was, of course, instantly controversial. A firestorm erupted on the left when the ACLU backed the move as the “right call,” and angered liberals hit back.

Whatever the moral rights and wrongs, Facebook is a crucial organizing and fundraising tool for modern campaigns, including Trump’s. The former president’s ability to utilize it once again is a significant gain.

Trump had already been reinstated to Twitter after Elon Musk took ownership of the social media platform. The former president has not yet sent any new tweets, but his full return is surely only a matter of time. 

When that happens, it will allow Trump to reinsert himself into the daily political conversation in a way that is not the case with his current posts on the much smaller Truth Social platform.

Taken together, Trump’s upcoming public events and his potential return to major social platforms now offer him the opportunity to reverse the dynamic of recent months, where the defeats suffered by some of Trump’s most high-profile endorsees in the midterms — figures such as TV personalities Mehmet Oz and Kari Lake, and former football star Herschel Walker — sapped his relevance and emboldened critics within the GOP.

One such critic, former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), told CNN’s “The Lead with Jake Tapper” earlier this month that Trump was “fading fast.” 

“He is a proven loser,” Ryan added. “He cost us the House in ’18, he cost us the White House in ’20, he cost us the Senate again and again.”

Among major donors — and a significant swath of the GOP grassroots — there is new ardor for Trump’s most serious Republican rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin told Politico late last year that he would support DeSantis if he ran. Griffin said that though he believed Trump had done some things well, “for a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation.”

Pro-Trump voices argue that DeSantis is more vulnerable than generally appreciated and they also contend that the media is making too much of moves from a donor class that has always viewed Trump with skepticism if not outright disdain.

Trump “was never the toast of the billionaires and will never be the candidate of Wall Street,” one figure within Trump’s circle told The Hill.

Regarding grassroots support, this same source said that for all the attention on DeSantis, Trump was “sitting on somewhere around 45 percent of the primary vote. And that is very solid. The people who are for him are very intensely for him.”

On Saturday, Trump will try to bring some of that intensity back into his campaign. 

The bottom line is, he needs to prove he is a formidable candidate rather than a fading one.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

Source: TEST FEED1

F-16 fighter jets could be next after Ukraine’s breakthrough on tanks

Ukraine’s breakthrough in securing heavy tanks from the U.S. and Germany has ignited talk about sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to defend the nation’s skies.

The government of Ukraine quickly renewed its calls for world-class fighter jets after it secured the victory on tanks, arguing it needed the help to defend itself against Russia.

Shortly after the U.S. announcement on tanks, Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s defense secretary, told The Hill that Kyiv would do everything possible to secure the fighter jets.

And Dymytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s minister of foreign affairs, tweeted Wednesday morning that Ukraine has “new tasks ahead,” naming western fighter jets as one of them.

ArmyINFORM, an information agency for Ukraine’s ministry of defense, also published an article Wednesday suggesting that Ukrainian pilots are already training in the U.S., but there has been no public announcement on such a program.

Asked to comment on the possibility of fighter jets going to Ukraine, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby on Wednesday said he had no news to share.

“Can’t blame the Ukrainians for wanting more and more systems,” Kirby said. “It’s not the first time they’ve talked about fighter jets, but I don’t have any announcements to make on that front.”

Kyiv operates a fleet of aging Soviet aircraft and has requested western, modern fighter jets since the onset of the war — but so far it has remained out of the nation’s grasp.

Supplying jets would be another escalation in terms of U.S. support for Ukraine, and the Biden administration has been careful in offering support that might intensify the conflict with Russia — particularly with the fear of nuclear weapons hovering over the war.

Yet the supplying of jets seems much less unlikely after the Biden administration made a major u-turn by agreeing to send 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. The administration did so to convince Germany to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Germany also gave its blessing for other allies to send the German-made Leopards to Kyiv.

Germany has expressed opposition to sending fighter jets to Ukraine.

“There will be no fighter jet deliveries to Ukraine. This was made clear very early, including from the U.S. President,” Germany Chancelor Olaf Scholz said in remarks to his country’s parliament after the tanks decision. “This position has not changed at all and will not change.”

Despite such remarks, a number of experts think the supplying of jets to Ukraine by the U.S. is now likely to happen.

Ukraine has slowly secured more and more advanced weaponry from the U.S. and European allies, and they say American-made F-16s will probably follow that same course.

Tomasz Blusiewicz, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, said most of the concerns over sending the jets are probably over logistical questions, such as training and getting the aircraft and related systems delivered.

“I think it’s now really more down to the nitty-gritty, logistical servicing and delivery and training,” he said.

The fighter jets would make a huge difference in the skies over Ukraine in combat against Russian fighter jets, which are much more outdated than western aircraft.

Both Ukraine and Russia are currently using MiG-29 fighter jets and various different models of the Sukhois aircraft, which are extremely inferior to advanced western technology.

Those advocating for sending western aircraft to Ukraine also say the U.S. public would accept it as a means to defend Ukrainian skies and protect civilians from Russia’s relentless bombardments.

Blusiewicz explained the fighter jets, which he described as “Guardians,” would be “even more of a game-changer” for Ukraine than the battle tanks.

“In terms of air superiority, western tech … is light years away,” he said. “And for Ukrainian civilians, it now becomes more realistic to make sure these drones and rockets don’t fall on them.”

The U.S.-made F-15s and F-16s are the cream of the crop, but other advanced fighters such as the Eurofighter Typhoon, Swedish Gripens and French-made Dassault Rafale would all be decisive on the battlefield.

U.S. lawmakers, most of whom have prodded the Biden administration to support more and more advanced weaponry for Kyiv, also appear to show early signs of supporting this next push for the fighter jets.

A statement released by Democratic Sens. Richard Blumenthal (Conn.), Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.), as well as Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) on Wednesday applauded the Biden administration for sending tanks to Ukraine but quickly pivoted to a push for fighter jets and long-range artillery systems.

“The combination of tanks, fighter aircraft, and ATACMS will help Ukraine confront the upcoming Russian offensive and go on offense in both the east and the south in an attempt to further erode Russia’s capability to continue fighting in Ukraine,” the statement read. “Let’s give the Ukrainians everything they need to win — now.”

Most of the concerns around supplying advanced weaponry before — from the HIMARS rocket launchers to the western battle tanks — revolved around escalating tensions with Russia. 

But an increasing number of voices say that after the tanks, the F-16s are not likely to be seen as more of an escalation. 

Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institute, told The Hill that Russia “defines everything as an escalation.” 

“In reality I think there are some guardrails that have been established between the United States and Russia and there is a tacit understanding not to cross the lines,” she said.

At the same time, Adyintasbas said the U.S. still probably won’t supply the F-16s anytime soon.

“We know the reason why,” she added. “Escalation management.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Red-state Americans see abortion access slipping away

In states where abortion is no longer protected by law, nearly half of residents report that abortion access has narrowed since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade. 

A small but significant number of Americans know someone who has crossed state lines for an abortion, undergone a birth-control procedure or postponed getting pregnant in the months since the landmark ruling Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which negated a constitutional right to abortion after nearly half a century. 

The findings, from a new NPR-Ipsos poll, reflect a divisive new reality. In roughly half of the states, a Republican majority doesn’t want abortion access to be easy. In the other half, a Democratic majority believes abortion should be available to all. 

Nearly 3 in 10 Americans told pollsters that access to abortion had eroded since the Dobbs decision. That share rose to 44 percent in states where abortion is not legal or otherwise protected.  

Abortion is now effectively outlawed in at least a dozen states, with exceptions only for medical emergencies. Some states allow abortions in cases of rape or incest. Others do not.  

Several red-state abortion bans remain stalled in the courts. The Guttmacher Institute, an abortion-rights research group, predicts abortion will be banned in 24 states once the post-Dobbs dust clears. The flurry of legislation and litigation would leave abortion mostly legal on the East and West coasts and in parts of the upper Midwest and lower Southwest, and mostly illegal everywhere else.  

That patchwork mirrors the sharp national divide in opinions about Roe and abortion.  

Seven Republicans in 10 agree with the Dobbs decision, according to the NPR-Ipsos poll. Two-thirds of Republicans believe abortion should be illegal in “most or all cases.” Only 9 percent think abortion laws in their states are too strict.  

Across the political aisle, the vast majority of Democrats agree with Roe and lament Dobbs. Eighty-four percent believe abortion should be entirely or mostly legal. Only 4 percent want more restrictive laws.  

As states implement the new bans, fresh debate is brewing on whether any meaningful access to abortion remains under the strictest laws.  

In theory, a pregnant person who shows up at a hospital in Texas or Louisiana or Mississippi with a dangerous complication should still qualify for an abortion.  

“If you walk into an emergency room, they have to treat you by law,” said David O’Steen, former executive director of the National Right to Life Committee. “The pro-life movement doesn’t want mothers to die.” 

Those exceptions defined the laws and helped anti-abortion lawmakers get them passed. Only 15 percent of Republicans believe abortion should be illegal in all cases, according to the new poll. 

Anti-abortion activists contend that the exceptions, taken together, “removed what were very much the talking points of the pro-abortion movement,” O’Steen said.  

Yet, a New York Times investigation found that very few of the promised exceptions have been granted. Doctors and hospitals “are turning away patients,” the Times reported, “saying that ambiguous laws and the threat of criminal penalties make them unwilling to test the rules.”  

Louisiana, which allows abortions in cases to protect the patient’s health and in cases involving deadly birth defects, has reported no abortions since its ban became law, the Times found. Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri and Texas all have reported tiny numbers of abortions under the new laws.  

“If the data are showing that abortions are not happening, then that proves the point that the exceptions are on paper, and not in practice,” said Dr. Tracey Wilkinson, an assistant professor of pediatrics at the Indiana University School of Medicine who studies abortion access.  

The Times report, tracking the fallout from Dobbs, found a Mississippi woman who said she could not find a doctor to provide an abortion after she was raped. An Ohio woman who faced dangerous pregnancy complications sought an abortion in her state but was turned away. 

“There is a lot of ambiguity and confusion and fear around the exceptions, what they are and how they can be interpreted,” said Rachel Jones, principal research scientist at Guttmacher Institute. 

Even before Dobbs, in an era when abortion remained legal across the land, entrenched opposition rendered it effectively unavailable in many places.  

As of 2020, six states had one abortion clinic each, and 89 percent of America’s counties had no clinic at all, the cumulative effect of decades of restrictions authored by anti-abortion lawmakers. 

“What does it mean if you have one clinic in your state, and it’s hundreds of miles away?” Jones said. “Do you have access to an abortion?” 

Despite the restrictions, the annual number of abortions was climbing. The Guttmacher Institute reported 930,160 abortions in 2020, compared with 862,320 in 2017. Preliminary data for 2021 suggested a further upward trend, Jones said. 

After Dobbs, “trigger” laws took effect in 13 states, banning abortion immediately or after state action. In most of those states, the number of abortions provided in the second half of 2022 “declined to basically none,” Jones said. 

The bans sparked a rise in interstate travel for legal abortions. A clinic in Granite City, Ill., reported that 86 percent of its post-Dobbs patients arrived from out of state.  

In the midterm elections, voters in several states considered ballot measures to protect or restrict abortion. Voters decided in favor of abortion rights in every case, affirming abortion-rights measures in California, Vermont and Michigan and rejecting abortion restrictions in Kentucky, Kansas and Montana.  

The outcome suggested a post-Dobbs, pro-abortion backlash. Abortion-rights activists marveled at “the people who voted for Rand Paul,” the conservative Kentucky senator, “and also voted for abortion access,” said Angela Vasquez-Giroux, vice president of communications and research at NARAL Pro-Choice America. 

Independent voters may have made the difference in the state contests. In the NPR-Ipsos poll, independents said they would in favor of abortion, rather than against it, by a 2-to-1 margin. 

Abortion-rights advocates, stunned by the Dobbs decision, drew fresh inspiration from the state victories.  

Anti-abortion activists, stung by the defeats, “are going to do everything in their power not to allow voters to make this decision moving forward,” Wilkinson said. “Because they will lose if they allow voters to make this decision.” 

That could be a hard sell. If the NPR-Ipsos poll proved anything, it is that Americans love ballot measures. Strong majorities of Democrats and Republicans said they would support using a ballot measure or voter referendum to decide abortion rights in their states.  

O’Steen, of the National Right to Life Committee, characterized the abortion-rights victories in the midterms as a singular event, fueled by Dobbs. Anti-abortion organizers will continue to pursue ballot initiatives, he predicted, “on a state-by-state basis.”

Source: TEST FEED1