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Schiff jumps into California Senate race

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) officially launched his bid for the Senate on Thursday, making him the second entrant in the Democratic battle to potentially replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.).

“The fight for our democracy and working families is part of the same struggle. Because if our democracy isn’t delivering for Americans, they’ll look for alternatives, like a dangerous demagogue who promises that he alone can fix it,” Schiff said in a press release. “We need a fighter in the U.S. Senate who has been at the center of the struggle for our democracy and our economy.”

Schiff’s announcement follows Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) jumping into the race earlier this month.

Feinstein has not said whether she will run for a sixth term in office, but she is widely expected to retire at the end of her current term. Others, including Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), are also said to be plotting potential runs for the seat. 

“I have just tremendous respect for her and — more than respect — admiration and affection,” Schiff told the Los Angeles Times of Feinstein. He said he informed her of his plans and spoke to her on Wednesday. 

“I think she will make her own decision about an announcement when she feels ready to do so,” he said. “She’s earned that right, and I certainly respect her to do that whenever she determines the time is right.”

The news came two days after Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) followed through on his plan to boot Schiff, along with Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), from the House Intelligence Committee, which Schiff had chaired for the past four years. 

Updated at 10:27 a.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

Resilient US economy grows 2.1 percent in 2022

The U.S. economy powered through high inflation, rising interest rates and an energy shock to grow at a solid pace over the course of 2022, according to data released Thursday by the Commerce Department.

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent last year and at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent during the fourth quarter. That means the U.S. economy would have grown by nearly 3 percent if the pace of growth in fourth quarter lasted an entire year.

Economists had been expecting 2.8 percent annualized growth in the fourth quarter, a modest fall-off from the 3.2-percent growth rate in the previous quarter.

The solid numbers are a reflection of a consistently tight labor market that’s allowed U.S. consumers to continue spending even as many commercial economists have been warning of a recession.

“The latest GDP data shows that the economy continued to expand in the 4th quarter, which is consistent with most of the measures the NBER [National Bureau of Economic Research] uses to define recessions. Despite some slight dips in GDP in the first half of the year, this latest data suggests that the US likely made it through 2022 without entering a recession,” Jeremy Horpedahl, an economist at the University of Central Arkansas, said in an email to The Hill.

Thursday’s numbers also come amid rapidly falling inflation, which has dropped for six straight months to 6.5 percent annually in December off a high of 9.1 percent last June, effectively boosting the purchasing power of U.S. consumers. This has bolstered hopes for a “soft landing” from the Federal Reserve – lower inflation without a serious, job-killing recession.

“Many economists have gone way overboard in talking as if a 2023 recession is all but inevitable. I would put the odds of a recession this year at something like 35 percent,” Jeffrey Frankel, an economist at the Harvard Kennedy School and a former member of the committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research that officially designates recessions, said in an email to The Hill.

–Sylvan Lane contributed to this developing report

Source: TEST FEED1

The Hill's Morning Report — US joins Germany to send tanks to Ukraine

Editor’s note: The Hill’s Morning Report is our daily newsletter that dives deep into Washington’s agenda. To subscribe, click here or fill out the box below.

It may take a year or more for the United States to get 31 M1 Abrams tanks promised by President Biden on Wednesday to Ukraine’s front lines. It will take months for 14 Leopard 2 tanks pledged by Germany to arrive, augmented in the meantime by tanks and heavy weaponry coming from about a dozen other European nations.

Ukraine asked for hundreds of battle tanks. The question ahead of an anticipated spring offensive by Russia is, will it be enough? Has the lifting of U.S. and German resistance to sending such heavy war machines opened the door to deliveries of European Leopard 2 tanks closer to the fighting — and improved Ukraine’s odds of victory? (The New York Times).

“These can help Ukraine to defend itself, win and prevail as an independent nation,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.

Biden suggested that sending a battalion’s worth of Abrams tanks to Ukraine and training its fighters to use them could multiply Ukraine’s defenses and eventually help exhaust the grinding Russian offensive toward a diplomatic end.

“If Russian troops returned to Russia … this war would be over today,” the president said. “That’s what we all want: an end to this war in just and lasting terms.”

Russia reacted today with waves of missiles aimed at Ukraine killing one person, (Reuters) and with fury on Wednesday, arguing Berlin was abandoning its “historical responsibility to Russia” arising from Nazi crimes in World War II. Now nearing a year since its invasion, Russia frames its war with its neighbor as defense against the U.S.-led alliance (Reuters). Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a Telegram post that Berlin’s decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine was confirmation of Germany’s involvement in “a war planned in advance” against Russia.

▪ The Hill: In a significant shift, Biden is sending 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

▪ The Hill: Biden says U.S. tanks to Ukraine are not an offensive threat to Russia.

▪ Defense One: Following Biden’s pledge, the U.S. Army must devise options to help the Ukrainian military operate the maintenance-hungry and fuel-thirsty battlefield behemoths.

▪ The Guardian analysis: Western unity is critical but Ukraine will need more than tanks to win this war.

▪ Newsweek: 70 tons and gallons of fuel per mile, the game-changing Abrams tanks present one glaring problem for Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the transfer of tanks follows “intensive consultations” with allies (The Washington Post).

“This decision follows our well-known line of supporting Ukraine to the best of our ability. We are acting in a closely coordinated manner internationally,” he said.

Germany’s tanks are coming from its existing military stocks and the package will include training of Ukrainian forces in Germany, plus logistics, ammunition and system maintenance support.

Russia has thousands of tanks still available in what has become a war of rapid attrition, David Silbey, a military historian at Cornell University who specializes in battlefield analysis, told the Times.

“The West will never manage a one-to-one match for those numbers,” he said. “But, given the quality advantage of the Leopard or Abrams over even the most modern Russian tank, if the West could supply 500 to 1,000 tanks, it would make a massive difference to the Ukrainians and to the war.”

Most of the weapons will be shipped either on rail cars or flatbed trucks that are strong enough to carry the enormous weight. The transports will use stealth, likely under the cloak of darkness, according to the Times. Ukrainian troops are required to retrieve the weapons from depots in NATO territory rather than await Western deliveries because of concerns about provoking Russia.

▪ Politico: Inside Washington’s about-face on sending tanks to Ukraine.

▪ The New York Times: U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy, a Russian-speaking career diplomat confirmed by the Senate last month, arrived in Moscow today. 

Related Articles

▪ BBC: Israel today conducted a military raid in the occupied West Bank, killing nine Palestinians including a 60-year-old woman, according to the Palestinian health minister. At least 29 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces in the West Bank so far this year, including militants and civilians.

▪ The Washington Post: Biden vowed to punish Saudi Arabia over its oil output reduction through OPEC Plus, which it chairs. That’s no longer the plan.

▪ The New York Times: In the U.K. cost-of-living crisis, some workers struggle to feed their children.

▪ Reuters: North Korea ordered a five-day lockdown in Pyongyang, citing rising cases of an unidentified “respiratory illness.”

▪ Reuters: Strong clan loyalty, locals, helped Italian mafia boss Matteo Messina Denaro, 60, stay hidden.

  LEADING THE DAY

➤ CONGRESS

Get ready, lawmakers: Former President Trump’s Facebook and Instagram accounts will be reinstated in the coming weeks, according to Meta (The Hill).

Should Biden negotiate with Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) over raising the debt limit? Biden will meet with McCarthy, but White House officials say it’s not a debt limit negotiation. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has said McCarthy should take a lead on the debt ceiling negotiations, as Republicans push for spending cuts after the U.S. hit its debt limit late last week and the Treasury Department began implementing “extraordinary measures” to avoid a default — which are set to expire in June (NPR).

The House GOP is demanding spending cuts be paired with a debt ceiling hike, but it’s far from clear that they can rally around a single plan if Democrats in the House hold tight in opposition, writes The Hill’s Alexander Bolton, especially given their narrow majority.

▪ The Hill: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) meets with McCarthy on the debt limit.

▪ Roll Call: House GOP considering “clean” short-term debt limit suspension.

▪ Reuters: Splits emerge as House Republicans demand Biden negotiate on debt limit.

▪ NPR: The politics and economics of a potentially costly showdown over the debt ceiling.

The House Oversight and Accountability Committee renewed a request that Republican lawmakers had previously made while in the minority to Hunter Biden’s art dealer, Georges Bergès, seeking information about transactions benefiting the president’s son, including sales of his artwork (The Wall Street Journal). 

On Tuesday, McCarthy removed two California Democrats — Reps. Adam Schiff and Eric Swalwell — from the House Intelligence Committee, citing “integrity.” Democrats, meanwhile, called the move “vengeance politics.” But McCarthy’s vow to block Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) from sitting on the House Foreign Affairs Committee has hit an early snag: he may not have the votes to do it (The Hill and Politico).

The White House on Wednesday pushed back against McCarthy’s plans, with press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre saying all three members “bring a lot to the table when it comes to foreign policy and national security” (The Hill).

“We’ll say that when it comes to that committee, it should not be politicized,” Jean-Pierre added, speaking specifically about the Intelligence Committee. “It should be independent. And again, those congressional members bring a lot of expertise to that committee, and I’ll leave it there.”

Truth & Consequences? Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) remains firmly in the headlines.

A pair of New York House Democrats on Wednesday said Santos, who has conceded numerous lies and distortions about his résumé and past activities, should be denied access to classified information while serving in Congress. Such a restriction would be within McCarthy’s purview to implement (The Hill).

▪ Politico: The improbability of Santos’s $199 expenses.

▪ The Washington Post: “I felt like we were in ‘Goodfellas’’’: How Santos wooed investors for alleged Ponzi scheme.

▪ The Hill: Santos unsure on voting to remove Omar from Foreign Affairs panel.

➤ POLITICS

Biden and Vice President Harris will travel to the presidential battleground state of Pennsylvania on Feb. 3, just days before the president’s State of the Union address, the White House announced. The trip to Philadelphia is official White House travel but could provide a preview of what we’ll hear on the campaign trail in 2024.

According to the White House, Biden and Harris will speak about “the progress we have made and their work implementing the Biden-Harris economic agenda that continues to deliver results for the American people.” No additional details were provided (The Philadelphia Inquirer).

Readers will remember that in 2019, Biden, who was raised in Scranton, announced his bid for the Democratic nomination in a simple video released on April 25, and days before the 2020 election, Democratic nominees Biden and Harris held bookend rallies with celebrities and speakers in the Keystone State (WHYY). After Pennsylvania put Biden over the top in the Electoral College on Election Night, street parties broke out in Philadelphia and other cities across the commonwealth (PBS).

And in September, Biden used Philadelphia’s Independence National Historical Park as the backdrop for a prime-time speech about democracy (CNN).

Over in the Senate, Democrats are on edge about possible retirements before 2024. The party will be defending 23 Senate seats, three of which are in states that Trump won in 2020 — Ohio, West Virginia and Montana. Additionally, they’re defending battleground seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan.

In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) says he plans to run for reelection, but Democrats are still holding their breath waiting for Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Manchin to decide whether they will stick around for reelection battles in red states. Further suspense awaits in Arizona, where newly-Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema may contend with a Democratic challenger, Rep. Ruben Gallego (Ariz.) who announced his bid earlier this week (The Washington Post).

Republicans across the party’s spectrum are pushing for former GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick to challenge incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) in 2024, writes The Hill’s Julia Manchester, in a move that comes after the party suffered a devastating blow last year when now-Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.) became the Keystone State’s second Democratic senator.

Many in the GOP argue that McCormick, who was defeated in the primary by Mehmet Oz, would have had a better chance against Fetterman. Republicans are painting McCormick as a consensus candidate who can attract moderate and swing voters while keeping the more conservative factions of the party under his wing. But regardless of who Republicans nominate in the Keystone State, Casey stands to be a formidable challenger given his incumbency advantage and the state’s slight blue lean.   

Trump will be in New Hampshire for a stop-by visit and South Carolina for a rally within the space of a few hours on Saturday. As The Hill’s Niall Stanage notes in The Memo, the stops mark the first significant ramping up of a 2024 campaign that even some Trump loyalists believe has gotten off to a lackluster start. 

▪ The Hill: Ahead of a vote for chair on Friday at the Republican National Committee winter meeting, candidate Ronna McDaniel, the current chairwoman, picks up some needed support.

▪ Politico: The private angst over Trump’s racist attacks on former Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao goes public.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ ADMINISTRATION

The controversy over Biden’s handling of classified documents has pushed some previously lesser names into the spotlight, writes The Hill’s Brett Samuels, who has rounded up five players, including the White House special counsel and Biden’s personal lawyer, formerly a White House counsel. 

▪ CNN: Teams supportive of Trump and Biden separately jumped on a documents disclosure by former Vice President Pence as defenses in their respective classified documents controversies.

▪ The Washington Post: The National Archives and Records Administration may ask living former presidents and vice presidents to search for classified items.

▪ Politico: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) vows to block Biden nominees over classified documents flap.

Gasoline prices are increasing again, rising by about 40 cents over the past month. The average gasoline price in the U.S. was $3.48 per gallon on Wednesday, up from a month prior, according to the American Automobile Association. Analysts have attributed the jump to both an increased demand for oil and refinery issues (The Hill). The increase marks a sore spot for Biden — whose administration has spent the past months fighting against inflation and only recently saw a win when workers’ wages once again outpaced the rise in consumer prices — as he gears up for a tough reelection campaign during which he’ll have to counteract Republican arguments against his handling of the economy (Politico).

Biden today will give what the White House is billing as a “major economic speech,” in Virginia, which he will use to contrast his vision for the economy with House Republican proposals (The Hill).

Fox Business: Gas prices rise on strong demand, higher oil prices.

The Federal Aviation Administration has been in the spotlight since a computer system malfunction caused an hours-long grounding of all domestic flights earlier this month, and yet Biden’s nominee for administrator is waiting in limbo, write The Hill’s Karl Evers-Hillstrom and Alex Gangitano. Phil Washington, the CEO of Denver International Airport, was nominated in July but has not received a hearing in the Senate yet. His future is unclear, with a number of Republican senators staunchly opposed to his nomination. 

West Wing turnstile: The National Economic Council will get a new director to succeed outgoing Brian Deese, The Washington Post reports. Candidates talked about include Lael Brainard, a former White House staff adviser who served past presidents, now vice chairwoman at the nation’s central bank. 

➤ STATE WATCH

Attempts by New York Democrats to pass gun measures after the Supreme Court struck down the state’s concealed carry law last summer are facing legal challenges from gun rights advocates that are tying the matters up in lower courts. As The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld reports, no matter who prevails, the outcome will serve as one of the first major applications of the high court’s overhaul in how judges mull the constitutionality of gun laws. The new law in part bans firearms in 20 “sensitive places,” including some of New York’s most famed spots: Times Square, Yankee Stadium and the subway system. 

Officials at a Virginia school were warned on three occasions by teachers that a 6-year-old boy had a gun or had made threats, but failed to take action on the day he shot his first-grade teacher in class. An attorney for the teacher asserted Wednesday that the shooting of Richneck Elementary School teacher Abigail Zwerner, 25, in Newport News could have been avoided if administrators had taken the proper steps to search the student for the firearm (The Washington Post). 

“This tragedy was entirely preventable if the school administrators responsible for school safety had done their part and taken action when they had knowledge of imminent danger,” attorney Diane Toscano said.

NBC News: The Newport News School Board on Wednesday voted to replace its embattled superintendent amid the continuing fallout from a 6-year-old boy shooting his first-grade teacher this month. The board voted 5-1 to remove George Parker III as the head of the district of about 26,500 students.

Amid an escalation in gang violence in small California towns, families have usually been spared, but gangs there are increasingly working with violent Mexican cartels. During a Jan. 16 mass shooting in Goshen, Calif., in the San Joaquin Valley, six people inside a house were quickly shot dead, execution-style, the latest in what the authorities say has been an alarming rise in homicides in the state’s agricultural heartland.

“A lot of cartels are moving into rural areas in the United States,” Nathan P. Jones, associate professor of security studies at Sam Houston State University in Texas, told The New York Times. “They can avoid major metro areas’ drug task forces, find cheap stash houses to keep drugs and be close to highways or interstates.”

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Affordable Care Act enrollments reached a record high.

▪ Bloomberg News: Housing demand climbs as the U.S. market starts to show signs of life.

▪ The New York Times: GOP state lawmakers push a growing wave of anti-transgender bills.

▪ Reuters: Half of U.S. mass attacks are sparked by personal and workplace disputes, a new report finds.

▪ The Washington Post: Monterey Park, Calif., shooting victims include “loving aunt” and joyful dancer.

OPINION

■ Air defense upgrades, not F-16s, are a winning strategy for Ukraine, by Col. Maximilian Bremer and Kelly Grieco, commentary, Defense News.https://bit.ly/3WJvTNv

■ Only force will move Putin — and Ukraine is counting on its allies, byretiredLt. Gen. James M. Dubik, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/3WzSITT

■ The scariest part of the debt ceiling impasse: Washington isn’t scared, by Ramesh Ponnuru, contributing columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3Hwwn5j

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 INVITATIONS to The Hill’s upcoming virtual events: TODAY, 1 p.m. ET, “Expanding Adult Vaccine Access,” with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Chiquita Brooks-LaSure and Reps. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) and Terri Sewell (D-Ala.). RSVP and save your spot. 

🎤 FRIDAY, 2 p.m. ET, The Hill’s live virtual newsmaker event with Heather Boushey, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, in discussion with The Hill’s Sylvan Lane. RSVP and join live.

📲 Ask The Hill: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.

The House will convene at 10 a.m.

The Senate meets at 10 a.m. 

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. He will travel to Steamfitters Local 302 in nearby Springfield, Va., to deliver remarks at 2:45 p.m. about the economy. At 5:30 p.m., the president and first lady Jill Biden will host a reception in the East Room to celebrate the Lunar New Year.

Vice President Harris arrives tonight in Washington after visiting relatives of the victims of a mass shooting that occurred at the Star Dance Studio in Monterey, Calif. She urged Congress to pass additional gun safety legislation. “They have the power to do something. Can they do something? Yes. Should they do something? Yes,” she said. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in South Africa, where she will hold bilateral meetings, including with Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana and South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago and Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy Gwede Mantashe. Yellen will join the U.S. ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety, and business leaders for lunch. In the afternoon, Yellen heads to the Ford Motor Company assembly plant outside of Pretoria, where she will receive a tour and speak about expanded trade and investment flows. 

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff is traveling this week to Poland and next week to Germany to focus on combating antisemitism globally. He will begin his itinerary in Krakow today and be there through Sunday.

Economic indicators: The Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 a.m. will report its advance estimate of U.S. gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2022 (CNBC). Separately, the Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. will report on filings for unemployment benefits in the week ending Jan. 21.

ELSEWHERE

➤ HEALTH & PANDEMIC

The updated COVID-19 boosters are cutting the risk that a person will get sick from the coronavirus by about half, even against infections caused by the rapidly spreading XBB.1.5 subvariant, new studies conducted at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show. They are among the first looks at how the bivalent boosters have continued to work in the real world as the virus has evolved, and the data reveals that the boosters are continuing to offer substantial protection against currently circulating variants (CNN).

▪ The New York Times: Utah plastic surgeon sold fake COVID-19 vaccine cards for $50, U.S. says.

▪ The Atlantic: Wait, is this winter going… OK? Only by the basement standards of the 2020s.

▪ Kaiser Health News: Unmet needs: Critics cite failures in health care for vulnerable foster children.

GenBioPro, one of two American manufacturers of mifepristone, the first pill used in the two-drug medication abortion regimen, filed a lawsuit Wednesday challenging the constitutionality of a state ban on the medication. It’s one in what is expected to be a wave of cases arguing that the federal Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the pill takes precedence over such restrictive state laws. If the West Virginia court rules in favor of the company, it could compel other states that have banned abortion to allow the pills to be prescribed, dispensed and sold, according to legal experts. 

On the other hand, if the courts reject the company’s arguments, some scholars say the decision could open the door for states to ban or restrict other approved drugs (The New York Times).

Information about the availability of COVID-19 vaccine and booster shots can be found at Vaccines.gov.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,106,524. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 3,953 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

THE CLOSER

Take Our Morning Report Quiz

And finally … 🐆 It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! Inspired by Germany’s focus on Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine, we’re eager for some smart guesses about big cats.

Which of the big cats are social animals?

1. Tigers
2. Jaguars
3. Lions
4. Leopards

Which big cat is the face of an NFL team?

1. Panther
2. Lion 
3. Jaguar 
4. All of the above

Which is the only big cat native to North America?

1. Tiger
2. Snow leopard
3. Jaguar
4. Leopard

How fast can leopards run?

1. Up to 36 mph
2. Up to 16 mph
3. Up to 60 mph
4. Up to 26 mph

Be sure to email your responses to asimendinger@thehill.com and kkarisch@thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

5 key players in the Biden document controversy

The controversy over President Biden’s handling of classified documents has pushed some previously lesser-known names into the forefront.

Lawyers and spokespeople who otherwise would have remained largely unknown to the broader public are quickly becoming prominent figures as new information is released about documents from Biden’s time as vice president and as a senator that were found at a former office and his Delaware home.

Here are five key players to know.

Richard Sauber, special counsel to the president

Richard Sauber has emerged as the White House lawyer tasked with disclosing in statements new discoveries and handling the bulk of the administration’s responses to the public about the documents found dating back to Biden’s time as vice president.

Sauber joined the White House last summer with the title of special counsel to the president after serving as the top lawyer at the Department of Veterans Affairs. While he was expected to lend a hand in addressing GOP-led investigations under the expectation that Republicans would win a majority in Congress, he has now become closely associated with the document case via written statements by Sauber.

Sauber himself played a role in turning over a batch of documents found at Biden home earlier this month.

In a Jan. 14 statement, Sauber said lawyers who initially found a classified document in Biden’s home three days earlier did not have a security clearance. Sauber does have one, though, and he went to Biden’s home on Jan. 12 to facilitate the transfer of documents to the Justice Department.

Bob Bauer, personal attorney to Biden

Bob Bauer is Biden’s personal attorney, dividing labor with the White House counsel’s office in handling the legal fallout of the document case.

Bauer has become more involved in the public response in the last two weeks, issuing statements to clarify key details and explain specifics about the Justice Department search that took place at Biden’s residence last week.

His first statement on Jan. 14 included a timeline of events laying out when and where classified materials were found and when the Justice Department was notified, and his statement from that day and on Jan. 18 sought to explain why the White House was limited in its public disclosures about the searches.

Bauer has close ties to Biden’s orbit and Democratic politics. His wife is Anita Dunn, a top White House adviser who has known the president for years. Bauer previously served as an attorney for the Biden campaign, standing in for former President Trump during debates and leading efforts to fend off election challenges after the vote in 2020.

Ian Sams, White House spokesman

Ian Sams has become the public face of the Biden administration’s response to the classified document discoveries, making regular television appearances to defend the president and holding calls with reporters as some mount criticism over a lack of transparency with the public.

Sams previously worked as a spokesperson for Vice President Harris’s 2020 presidential campaign, and he joined the administration as a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services on the pandemic response. He was brought into the White House press shop last year to handle the public response to potential GOP congressional investigations.

In recent weeks, with press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre facing a constant barrage of questions in the briefing room about transparency and whether she was providing incomplete information, Sams has stepped in as the White House’s point person on the issue.

After the White House disclosed Saturday that Justice Department officials searched Biden’s home and found more classified materials, Sams appeared multiple times on MSNBC over the next 72 hours and held an off-camera, on-the-record briefing with reporters to articulate the administration’s position and field questions.

Stuart Delery, White House counsel

Stuart Delery is the White House lawyer who has so far taken a backseat publicly to Sauber and Bauer, but he is expected to play an active role behind the scenes in responding to Republican inquiries on the matter.

Delery, who as White House counsel oversees legal operations, has handled communications thus far with House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.), who is just digging into investigations into Biden.

In a Monday letter to Comer, Delery wrote that the White House did not have the classified materials taken from Biden’s home and his old office, but pledged to work to accommodate “legitimate oversight interests.”

It will fall largely to Delery in the coming weeks and months to navigate whether the White House cooperates with Republican investigations into Biden, or if the administration takes a firmer line in refusing to indulge probes it views as politically motivated.

Delery started on the job in June, replacing Dana Remus. Delery had previously served as Remus’s deputy counsel and spent several years working at the Justice Department. He is the first openly gay person to serve as White House counsel.

Robert Hur, DOJ special counsel

Attorney General Merrick Garland earlier this month appointed Robert Hur to serve as the special counsel reviewing Biden’s handling of classified materials.

The appointment of Hur was designed to promote independence as the Justice Department assesses whether there was any wrongdoing in how classified materials ended up in places Biden used after his tenure as vice president.

Hur, a Harvard and Stanford graduate, was nominated in 2017 by then-President Trump to serve as U.S. attorney for Maryland and confirmed the following year. He resigned from the post in early 2021. 

Despite being a former Trump appointee, Hur has attracted skepticism from some conservatives who are bothered by his past work with FBI Director Christopher Wray and former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. The latter involved work with the Mueller investigation into Trump’s ties to Russia.

Hur is the second special counsel Garland has appointed in just three months, following the appointment of Jack Smith to oversee investigations into Trump, including whether he mishandled classified documents upon leaving office.

Source: TEST FEED1

The Memo: Trump hits the road after lackluster campaign launch

Former President Trump is ramping up his 2024 campaign for the White House with visits to two key primary states on Saturday.

Trump will go to New Hampshire on Saturday morning before appearing at an event in South Carolina with Gov. Henry McMaster (R) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) later in the day.

The shift into a higher gear of campaigning is welcome among some Trump loyalists who have grown frustrated with what they see as a lackluster beginning to his campaign.

Trump launched his bid to return to the Oval Office on Nov. 15, just one week after several of his most high-profile endorsees suffered disappointing results in the midterm elections.

But the launch took the form of an underwhelming speech at Mar-a-Lago with few big names in attendance. After that, there were few of the standard moves that usually accompany a campaign’s early steps. Instead, Trump sputtered out of the gate.

Some figures in Trump’s orbit, granted anonymity to speak candidly, lamented that other possible candidates such as former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were making early trips to crucial states while Trump largely remained out of public view.

One source supportive of Trump, with knowledge of the planning of both Saturday events, expressed lingering concern about a lethargic pace.

“Doing any stops in early primary states is better than not doing them,” this source said. “But the fact that we are now 2 1/2 months into the presidential campaign and haven’t made strategic hires is still a little troubling.”

Trump will be hoping to begin quietening such voices, especially with the event in South Carolina.

The show of support from McMaster and Graham in the Palmetto State is significant given that two other South Carolinians are potential rivals for the 2024 GOP nomination. 

The most notable is former Gov. Nikki Haley, who went on to become U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Trump. A less high-profile possibility is a bid by Sen. Tim Scott (R).

Haley gives every appearance of edging toward a run, though Scott’s intentions are unclear. 

Back in November, Haley told a meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, regarding a 2024 bid, that she would “look at it in a serious way.” CNBC reported on Tuesday that Haley is “putting together a national finance committee and communications team in advance of a potential campaign.”

Multiple sources in Trump’s circle drew a distinction between Saturday’s South Carolina visit, which was long-planned and has clear objectives, and the New Hampshire trip, which was added early this week and amounts to Trump dropping into the state GOP’s annual meeting.

“In South Carolina, he is trying to demonstrate a broad swath of establishment support, including the governor and the lieutenant governor,” said one figure in Trump’s orbit. “The New Hampshire thing is just kinda showing the flag.”

One of the pro-Trump sources who spoke to The Hill said that they believe the New Hampshire visit had been arranged at least in part to mute growing criticism that the former president has not been campaigning vigorously enough.

This source noted that, in contrast to the support Trump will receive from McMaster in South Carolina, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu is a moderate Republican and critic of the former president who is himself mulling a presidential run.

Whatever the internal calculations, Saturday’s trip at least has the potential to begin righting the ship after an uncertain start.

Barry Bennett, who was a senior adviser to Trump’s 2016 campaign but who is not involved in the 2024 campaign, said that the early months of the quest had gone “not very well if you look at the polling. He controls his own fate but I don’t think he has done himself any favors, making his support even smaller by attacking other Republicans.”

Even so, Bennett acknowledged that Trump is uncommonly well-attuned to the issues that matter to the GOP base. Public events, he contended, were likely to sharpen this instinct in a way that would not be possible if Trump were to stay cooped up at Mar-a-Lago.

“When he gets out, he actually talks to people and he does have a remarkably good political antenna,” Bennett said. “If he is going to South Carolina and he is going to listen to some folks, that’s a good idea. If he is going to say how evangelical ministers are disloyal and Mitch McConnell is evil, that’s not such a good idea.”

The worry in some pro-Trump quarters is that the uneven start to the 2024 campaign has given other potential candidates, most notably Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), time to build support and momentum.

DeSantis has been plunging into the culture wars with vigor in recent weeks, issuing edicts and headline-grabbing statements about hot-button issues including race, education and — a favorite DeSantis target — “wokeness.”

Team Trump contends that DeSantis has not yet faced real scrutiny. When that comes, they argue, the gloss could fast wear off the Florida governor.

Trump leads the hypothetical GOP field in the vast majority of polls. But in some surveys, DeSantis is snapping at his heels.

Saturday could see Trump begin to turn that around — or, at the very least, shake off the torpor that has characterized the start of his 2024 bid.

“He is very talented at that kind of stuff,” said Bennett. “But he is living in this bitter fog, which is not the path to victory. You gotta get out of that fog.”

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

Source: TEST FEED1

McCarthy might have a math problem in blocking Omar from panel

Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) vow to block Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) from sitting on the House Foreign Affairs Committee has hit an early snag: he may not have the votes to do it.

Omar, one of three Muslims in Congress, has been a controversial figure on Capitol Hill for her sharp criticisms of the Israeli government and its human rights record. Republicans have said she’s crossed a line into antisemitism, and McCarthy’s case for booting her from Foreign Affairs rests on that accusation.

But McCarthy has a math problem to solve, one that could prove an early test of his ability to keep his narrow majority united and fulfill a long-running vow.

Democrats are rallying behind Omar, which could force GOP leaders to rely entirely on their own members if they’re to succeed. 

“There’s already two Republicans that have indicated that they won’t vote to put her off, and I think others will come aboard also,” said Rep. Gregory Meeks (N.Y.), the senior Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee, who is lobbying Republicans on Omar’s behalf. 

“So I don’t think it’s going to be a simple vote. I think that she has a good chance of staying.”

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) said this week she’ll oppose the measure, calling McCarthy’s move “unprecedented” while citing her opposition to Democrats’ successful removal of GOP Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) and Paul Gosar (Ariz.) from committees in 2021. 

“Two wrongs do not make a right,” she said in a statement. “As I spoke against it on the House floor two years ago, I will not support this charade again.”

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) has been similarly cool to the concept, also pointing to her criticism of the Greene and Gosar evictions under Democratic rule. 

“I’m not going to be a hypocrite just because Republicans are in the majority now,” she told reporters Wednesday morning. “It’s not been a precedent in Congress to kick people off of their committees because of things that they say, even if you vehemently disagree with those things.” 

Still, Mace said she’s withholding final judgment until the final resolution is released.

Adding to the mathematical headache, Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) said he will be “sidelined in Sarasota for several weeks” after falling 25 feet from a ladder on his property — denying Republicans an easy “yes” vote if the resolution hits the floor soon. 

A wild card in the debate remains whether Democrats would vote unanimously to support Omar. The overwhelming majority are expected to do so, putting pressure on McCarthy to rally his own troops. But several Democrats aren’t showing their hands, including Reps. Josh Gottheimer (N.J.) and Jared Moskowitz (Fla.), two Jewish lawmakers who represent large Jewish constituencies. 

Asked Wednesday if every Democrat would support Omar, Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (Calif.) was coy, saying only that “it’s going to be a bipartisan vote to keep her on the committee.” 

Omar hasn’t officially been recommended for the committee yet and a House vote has not been set.

For months, McCarthy has signaled he would block three Democrats from serving on certain committees should he win the gavel: Omar on Foreign Affairs, and Reps. Adam Schiff (Calif.) and Eric Swalwell (Calif.) on the House Intelligence Committee.

That push began in 2021 after Democrats — and some Republicans — voted to remove Greene and Gosar from their committees as punishment for promoting violence against Democrats on social media.

McCarthy began his house-cleaning effort on Tuesday night when he blocked Schiff and Swalwell from the Intelligence panel, accusing the pair of abusing their positions at risk of national security. Because of the special rules governing the Intel panel, he was able to do so unilaterally.

The effort to block Omar from Foreign Affairs won’t be quite as easy, since it requires a vote of the full House.

Republicans are focusing on past comments from Omar that have been accused of being antisemitic and anti-Israel. In 2019, for instance, she tweeted that lawmaker support for Israel is “all about the Benjamins, baby” — a remark that sparked immediate condemnation from Democratic leaders and forced Omar to issue an apology. 

More recently, she received widespread criticism for equating the U.S. and Israel with the Taliban and Hamas when it comes to human rights abuses. 

“It would be odd to me that members would not support [the removal resolution] based upon her comments against Israel,” McCarthy said Tuesday night.

But Omar is defending her right to sit on the panel, arguing that she has already paid the price for her comments.

“I have addressed it, I’ve apologized,” the congresswoman told reporters on Wednesday.

As the debate evolves, Democrats are seeking to distinguish between their decision to remove Greene and Gosar in 2021, and the Republicans’ targeting of Omar and other Democrats, arguing that the violence promoted by the GOP lawmakers put them in a different league.

“Suggesting violence against other members, your colleagues, is a much more serious offense,” said Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.). “I think we start to go down a dangerous path when you start to remove members because you disagree with their policies.”

Democrats are also pointing to a separate episode in the last Congress involving Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), who told a crowd in her district that sharing an elevator with Omar was alarming — until she saw that Omar “doesn’t have a backpack.” 

The implication was that Omar must be a suicide bomber because of her faith, and Democrats demanded that McCarthy condemn the remarks — something he refused to do. 

“Nothing. Not a word. Not a peep,” Meeks said.

Then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) also resisted efforts to have Boebert removed from her committees, infuriating liberals at the time. 

“That’s assuming that all Muslims are terrorists, right?” Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), another Muslim lawmaker, said Wednesday. “All of this is so incredibly frustrating.”

McCarthy and Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the Foreign Affairs chairman, made their case for blocking Omar during a closed-door meeting with the House GOP conference Wednesday morning, when McCaul highlighted a number of Omar’s statements that have been cited as antisemitic.

“They went through ‘em,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who was initially undecided but opted to support the effort following the presentation, said afterward. “Because we need to remind people, this is what she said in the past.”

Other Republicans have remained mum on how they will vote, including Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), one of 11 Republicans who voted to boot Greene from her committees.

“We’ve got to have consistent rules that apply to everybody,” Fitzpatrick said Wednesday, adding that “we haven’t even seen anything yet.”

Meanwhile, Omar’s allies say they’re eager for the battle to reach the floor to get everyone on the record. 

“I’m fully supportive of taking a vote — I think it’s important,” said Tlaib. “Because if we’re going to continue doing this over and over again, I want to see where everybody stands.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Progressives see 2024 as chance to grow ranks in Senate

Progressives see a chance to make 2024 a year of expansion in the Senate, with a handful of Sun Belt candidates angling to bring more of their wing to higher office as Democrats face a rough landscape and uphill battle to retain control of the chamber. 

The election year has the potential to modify what the Senate looks like for the party. If progressives in Arizona and California are elected, each would help turn the moderate caucus more in their direction, while demonstrating that liberals from competitive districts are capable of winning statewide. 

But the caucus itself may shrink in the process. Several states, including Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, are on Democrats’ watchlists as in danger of going Republican, possibly blunting whatever traction the left makes with hypothetical pickups. 

“Look, it’s a very tough map. It is going to be difficult for Democrats to hold the majority,” said Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, a left-wing mobilizing organization aligned with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). 

“But even if Democrats don’t do well,” he said, “I think progressives will. The progressive voting bloc in the Senate is poised to become stronger.”

This month, two House liberals — Reps. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Katie Porter (D-Calif.) — announced Senate campaigns, fueling optimism among progressives who want to see Congress reimagined into something that represents the country’s vast economic and racial diversity.

Gallego and Porter are both young lawmakers and members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC), where most of the left’s firepower is housed on Capitol Hill. Their personal brands are largely built on a shared desire to move away from the more traditional, centrist model of politics that Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) represent. 

Porter, a wonky anti-monopoly representative from Orange County, launched her bid even though Feinstein hasn’t said she’ll step down, setting an early narrative into motion that a younger progressive woman can occupy that seat. 

Gallego, meanwhile, was widely celebrated when he made his plans for a Senate run public this week, energizing Democrats who are eager to oust Sinema, who made just a slight reference to her upcoming political goals via tweet. 

“Ruben knows that most Arizonans aren’t on Twitter following politics because they are too busy working overtime or a second job,” said Joe Sanberg, a liberal donor close to Gallego. “This campaign is about the needs of working Arizonans.”

Max Berger, a Democratic campaign operative who’s worked with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), said he believes the millennial Latino congressman has a real shot at taking Sinema down if she runs. But it probably won’t be easy.

“I think Gallego can win even if Sinema doesn’t drop out,” Berger said. “Obviously, our chances improve dramatically if she takes a job directly with her real constituents and becomes a lobbyist.”

“But I think she’s sufficiently alienated Democrats across the board, and no Republican voters want her brand of watered-down conservatism,” he added.

Progressives believe that adding two Democrats from their flank to the Senate could help reimagine what’s possible in the notoriously formal, procedure-heavy upper chamber. Unlike in the House — where liberals have grown in the past several election cycles, dating back to the emergence of the “squad” in 2018 — the left has stayed more muted in the Senate.

That started to change recently. In November, progressives saw one of their top stars from the midterm cycle — now-Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) — win an upstart campaign against his well-funded GOP opponent by running on a platform that included things like legalizing marijuana and a $15 minimum wage. 

“It shows me that economic populists, candidates who put bread-and-butter issues at the center of their campaigns, can win. I think that’s incredibly encouraging,” Geevarghese said. “We need more Bernies and Warrens — and Fettermans.”

A Gallego or Porter win — or a handful of other progressives thought to be considering California Senate bids like Reps. Barbara Lee (D) and Ro Khanna (D) — would help expand that bench beyond Fetterman and the more prominent progressive senators Sanders and Warren. 

“The few genuine economic populists in the Senate, notably Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, need many more allies among their colleagues,” agreed Norman Solomon, who co-founded the grassroots community RootsAction.org.

“The base of the Democratic Party, including activists who work hard during campaign seasons, is very progressive on the issues,” Solomon said, pointing out what many leftists see as key vulnerabilities among their establishment colleagues. 

“Corporate Democrats like Feinstein can raise big money from special interests, but they’re out of step with the Democratic base,” he added. “Democratic primaries often pit the base of the party against big donors.”

Still, Democrats — not just progressives — will have to defend a lot of their turf this cycle, which has some in the party already on edge. Sinema, for example, who last year switched from Democrat to Independent, could theoretically take votes away from the Democratic nominee and help deliver the seat to the GOP.  

“Arizona is anything but a slam dunk for a Democrat,” said Matt Bennett of the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way. “Democrats cannot count on a crackpot GOP nominee in Arizona, and even if it is, that person could win.”

Moderates like Bennett see more progressivism as increasing the chances that the Senate could ultimately turn redder. 

“When the Dem caucus gets smaller (Senate or House) it moves to the left,” he said. “When it gets larger, it moves to the center. Do Democrats want small and left or large and center?”

There’s plenty of uncertainty to go around in other swing states. 

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), a Rust Belt progressive, is expected to face a tough reelection campaign after Democrats saw their longshot hopes of sending former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) to the Senate fail against Trump-aligned Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). In addition, the party will have to work to hold Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) seat in Montana, who only barely won his last bid during more favorable conditions to Democrats. 

Republicans have had success during the presidential cycles in both states, creating an uncertain climate before President Biden has even announced his intention to run for a second term. Former President Trump won both Ohio and Montana against Biden in 2020.

And then there’s Sen Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who, like his friend Sinema, is high on progressives’ target list. But with no liberal challenger in sight or with a reasonable shot of winning the red state, Democrats worry that Manchin may lose to a Republican — a possibility that comes up each cycle with fresh intensity.

Some of the speculation depends on Biden’s reelection announcement. He is likely to give a signal to voters about running again in the coming weeks, The Hill has recently reported, but it’s also an ongoing question about his popularity. If the president’s approval rating sinks lower in the thick of the campaign season, Democrats are likely going to have a harder time defending a challenging Senate battlefield sharing a ticket with him.

For now, progressives are hopeful they can break through. If something bad for the party happens — namely, if they lose the Senate — they’ll still have more influence over the Biden White House if he runs and wins reelection. They’ll also build a more liberal chamber for future cycles, a longer-term goal that organizers and activists have accomplished with some success in the lower chamber. 

“Ultimately what I think we’re poised to see is a growing progressive bloc in the Senate, which has been pretty small,” Geevarghese said. “Democrats didn’t win the House, but the CPC got stronger. We’ll have more influence.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Democrats grapple over whether Biden should negotiate with McCarthy on raising debt limit 

Democrats are grappling over whether President Biden should negotiate an increase to the debt ceiling in talks with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

Most Democrats are dead set against negotiating as Biden signals he’s prepared to meet with McCarthy, arguing any talks will just be gobbled up by Republicans who will then ask for more.

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), for example, doesn’t want Democrats to negotiate with House Republicans until the House GOP shows it can actually pass legislation to raise the debt ceiling.

The House GOP is demanding spending cuts be paired with a debt ceiling hike, but it’s far from clear that they can rally around a single plan if Democrats in the House hold tight in opposition — especially given the narrow majority held by McCarthy.

Other Democrats think it is unrealistic for Biden and his party to take a no-negotiations stance, seeing it as politically rigid and likely to backfire.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who is up for reelection next year and represents a deep-red state in presidential elections, says it’s a “mistake” for fellow Democrats to think they can raise the debt ceiling without sitting down and negotiating with McCarthy.  

Manchin met with McCarthy on Wednesday to urge him to negotiate a debt limit and fiscal reform package with Biden but warned the Speaker not to push any plans to cut Medicare or Social Security benefits.  

Schumer pushed back on that idea later in the day, arguing that McCarthy doesn’t have any negotiating position until he shows he can unify his narrow House Republican majority behind a deficit reduction plan.

“Until Speaker McCarthy has a plan and a plan that can pass in the House with his Republican support, his going to the White House is like going with no cards in his hand,” Schumer said when asked if there is any value to McCarthy sitting down with Biden to negotiate the debt limit. 

“The bottom line is the first step since McCarthy and many Republicans are playing brinksmanship, holding hostages … instead of playing that dangerous game of brinksmanship, it’s incumbent on them to show” their plan, Schumer said. “Show your own caucus the plan and see if you got the votes to pass it.”  

The White House has also signaled it does not want to negotiate spending cuts as part of a deal to hike the debt ceiling, saying any increase in the borrowing limit should be “clean” and without conditions.

A source familiar with Wednesday’s meeting between Manchin and McCarthy described it as a “good meeting” and said that Manchin urged the Speaker to negotiate with Biden to find a path forward on raising the debt ceiling and “avoid harming the American people.” 

Manchin told reporters after the meeting that McCarthy agreed not to cut Medicare or Social Security benefits as part of any fiscal reform.  

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), however, also dismissed a negotiation with McCarthy as a waste of time when House Republicans are holding the debt limit hostage.  

“There’s a difference between negotiation and blackmail,” he said at a joint press conference with Schumer. “What they’re essentially saying on the other side of the aisle is, ‘We will detonate Social Security, detonate Medicare, detonate veterans’ benefits or possibly even risk a catastrophic default for the first time in American history.’ “

“That ain’t negotiation, that’s blackmail,” he added.  

Democratic senators say that Schumer doesn’t want other members of their caucus to join Manchin’s call for bipartisan negotiation over raising the debt limit, urging them to stay unified against Republican efforts to use the debt limit as a bargaining chip.  

“I thought what Sen. Schumer said was that no one is supposed to be out negotiating on this point,” Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) said of the looming debt limit expiration.  

Hickenlooper said Schumer “is leading the caucus in what he thinks will be successful for this country” and that his recommendation not to negotiate is a negotiating position in itself.  

Rep. Brendan Boyle (Pa.), the ranking Democrat on the House Budget Committee, rejected the idea of Biden negotiating with McCarthy over the debt limit and predicted that House Republicans will have a very hard time passing any budget plan to implement the steep spending cuts favored by House conservatives. 

“I doubt he could get 218 votes for that on his own side,” Boyle said of McCarthy’s pledge to cut discretionary spending to the levels appropriated by Congress for fiscal 2022, which would amount to nearly a 10 percent cut in defense spending.  

He noted that McCarthy was forced to delay action on a border security bill because of squabbling between moderates and conservatives in his conference. House leaders held up another bill aimed at cracking down on progressive district attorneys in big cities because some conservatives criticized it as a federalization of law enforcement.    

“McCarthy’s ability to execute in that caucus is something that does not seem terribly strong,” Boyle added. “It gives us leverage.” 

He noted that past Republican Speakers John Boehner (Ohio) and Paul Ryan (Wis.) had to rely on Democratic votes to increase the debt ceiling and pass spending bills.  

Boyle, who has sponsored legislation to repeal the debt ceiling and give the Treasury secretary authority to issue new debt, said “there’s no negotiation, we have to raise the debt ceiling, period.”  

Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.) is echoing that same message.  

He warned that any negotiation with Republicans would roil financial markets and the economy, as the talks would likely drag on for weeks or months.  

“You know what’s going to happen, we will be lurching from one deadline to the next. It will devastate the credibility of our economy and that’s something that’s unacceptable,” said Durbin, the No. 2 member of Senate Democratic leadership. “We gave them Democratic votes for the debt ceiling under Trump, this should be a bipartisan measure under President Biden.”  

That message is resonating with other Senate moderates, such as Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), who said while there should be a bipartisan vote to raise the debt limit, there shouldn’t be a negotiation.  

“It ought to be something that’s done automatically because the stakes are so high and it’s a fundamental responsibility of government,” said King, who caucuses with Democrats. “It ought to be done as a matter of routine, like turning the lights on. All we’re doing is authorizing the payment of bills we’ve already run up.

“The problem I have with the term ‘negotiation’ is it implies that there has to be a quid pro quo, and in this case there shouldn’t have to be.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Republicans tap McCormick to oust Sen. Casey in 2024 Pennsylvania race

Republicans across the party’s spectrum are pushing for former GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick to challenge incumbent Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey (D) in 2024 after the party suffered a devastating blow last year when now-Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.) became the Keystone State’s second Democratic senator.  

Many in the GOP argue that McCormick, who was defeated in the primary by Mehmet Oz, would have had a better chance against Fetterman. Republicans are painting McCormick as a consensus builder who can attract moderate and swing voters while keeping the more conservative factions of the party under his wing.  

“Whereas there was a lot of division and thought of who should be the Senate and governor candidate in 2022, in 2024 every corner of geography and ideological persuasion in the Republican Party universally believe they’ve got to encourage Dave McCormick to run,” said John Brabender, a veteran GOP consultant with experience in Pennsylvania politics.  

While McCormick has not formally jumped into the Senate race, he continues to place himself in the public sphere. The former Senate candidate is coming out with a book, “Superpower in Peril: A Battle Plan to Renew America,” and has made appearances at various recent political events.  

“Though our country is headed in the wrong direction, decline isn’t inevitable. What matters is what we do next,” McCormick said in a tweet promoting his book last week.  

Strategists say that McCormick’s recent Senate bid along with his public profile are the key ingredients to a ready-made 2024 campaign.  

“He’s tested now. Running statewide for the first time is tough,” Brabender said. “Dave starts with a campaign that could start immediately and that is a big advantage.”  

McCormick’s supporters also say that he is the makings of a political candidate who anyone would think is an attractive contender in the state, pointing to his military background and western Pennsylvania roots that would provide a contrast to Casey, who hails from the northeastern part of the state. 

“David McCormick is a proven conservative who can run exactly the type of competent, well-funded campaign needed to win in Pennsylvania,” said one national Republican strategist. “If he runs, McCormick would immediately put Pennsylvania on the map as a top pick-up opportunity for Republicans.” 

Republicans are also eager not to repeat the mistakes of 2022, which saw McCormick losing to Oz by less than a percentage point after former President Trump endorsed Oz in the primary.  

“Nobody wants to see what happened in ‘22 happen in ‘24,” said David Urban, former chief of staff to former Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter (R) and a 2016 Trump campaign adviser. “Nobody wants to see Trump come in and big foot everybody and then you end up with a bunch of seats you could have won and you lose.”  

This is why Republicans argue that candidate quality is of chief importance in 2024.  

“I think there is a new perspective that says, ‘look, we need candidates that can win,’ ” Brabender said.  

Republicans also argue that Oz failed at fighting back against Fetterman’s attacks, which would likely be different from Casey coming at McCormick.  

“He was able to define Dr. Oz in the first days of the campaign and Oz was not effective in fighting back against the caricature that he was a carpetbagger, etc.,” said Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania-based GOP strategist.  

Republicans also argue that Fetterman was bolstered by early voting that took place prior to the state’s Senate debate, where critics said the Democrat performed poorly as he was recovering from a stroke.  

“If those votes had been cast prior to the debate, I think they would have looked very, very different,” Gerow said.  

But Casey would be a very different kind of candidate than Fetterman. Casey stands to be a formidable challenger given his incumbency advantage and the state’s slight blue lean.  

Casey was first elected in 2006, ousting former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), and has handily won his reelection bids since. The incumbent senator is seen as a political institution in the Keystone State with his father, Bob Casey Sr., serving as the former governor of Pennsylvania.  

“It’s like being a Kennedy in Pennsylvania,” Urban said. “He’s going to be a very tough guy to beat.”  

Pennsylvania could also prove to be an uphill climb for Republicans after last year’s Democratic victories in the state. The latest 2024 rating for Casey’s Senate seat from the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball released on Tuesday is “lean Democratic.”  

A Morning Consult tracking poll released earlier this month showed Casey with a 42 percent approval rating in Pennsylvania.  

Still, Republicans see a path for someone, like McCormick, to defeat Casey.  

“I look at Bob Casey very much as jello,” Brabender said. “Nobody dislikes jello, but you also don’t want to just have it for every meal and at some point, you realize that it doesn’t have a lot of nutritional value.”  

Casey has not formally announced a reelection bid. Earlier this month he revealed he has been diagnosed with prostate cancer, but said he has an “excellent prognosis.”  

In a statement to The Philadelphia Inquirer last week, Casey’s spokesperson said he is focused on his health at the moment.  

“Right now, Senator Casey is focused on his health and continuing to deliver for Pennsylvanians in Washington,” Mairead Lynn, a spokesperson for the senator, told the outlet. “Most Pennsylvania voters want a break from campaigns and there will be plenty of time for politics in the coming months.” 

But the campaign trail has already started picking up steam, given that 2024 will be a presidential election year. This will be a major factor in down-ballot races.  

“In a presidential year in a state like Pennsylvania, sometimes that is a big advantage versus a non-presidential year,” Brabender said.  

Pennsylvania’s eventual Republican Senate nominee could also be impacted by whom the GOP’s eventual presidential nominee is.  

“In a normal year, beating Bob Casey, an incumbent senator, would not be impossible, but it would be tough,” Urban said. “In a year when Donald Trump may be at the top of the ticket, it might be impossible.” 

Source: TEST FEED1