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Defense & National Security — Concerns rise over Iran's plan to send Russia drones

The United States believes that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with hundreds of drones to help Moscow with its ongoing assault on Ukraine, the White House has revealed.  

We’ll detail what we know of the plans so far and what it means for the next stage of the Ukraine-Russia war, plus the next point of focus for the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and the latest incident involving the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier.

This is Defense & National Security, your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. For The Hill, I’m Ellen Mitchell. A friend forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here.

Officials: Iran preparing to send Russia drones

The United States believes that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with hundreds of drones in order to help Moscow with its ongoing assault on Ukraine, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on Monday.    

“Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia up to several hundred UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles], including weapons-capable UAVs, on an expedited timeline,” Sullivan said at a press briefing.   

Trainings planned: Sullivan said that the Iranians are preparing to train Russian forces to use the unmanned aerial vehicles as early as this month. It’s unclear if any have been delivered to the Russians already. 

Timing: The national security adviser disclosed the information to exhibit the difficulty Russia is experiencing in sustaining its own weapons stockpile as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine comes close to entering its sixth month.   

Similarities: During his remarks to reporters, Sullivan noted that Iran supplied similar weapons to the Houthis in Yemen to help launch attacks against Saudi Arabia before a cease-fire was brokered.   

Sullivan expressed confidence that the Ukrainians, with assistance from the U.S. and other countries, would be able “effectively defend and sustain” the capital of Kyiv, which Russia tried and failed to overtake at the beginning of the war.   

Read more here 

Also from The Hill: 

• Finnish envoy pushes for quick addition to NATO amid ‘illegal’ Ukraine war 
• Zelensky vows ‘punishment’ for Russian commanders, forces after missile strike at apartment building 

Panel focuses on ‘tweet heard around the world’ 

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol will turn its focus this week to former President Trump’s campaign to rally protesters to Washington, pointing to one tweet in particular as a pivotal moment in the violent effort to overturn his election defeat.  

“Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!” Trump tweeted Dec. 19, 2020. 

That message, the investigators contend, acted as a shrewd battle cry to the far-right extremist groups and other supporters who were wrongly convinced the election had been “stolen” and viewed Jan. 6, 2021 — when Congress met to certify Joe Biden’s victory — as their last best chance to keep Trump in power.   

Coming up: On Tuesday, lawmakers on the select committee will drill into the events both before and after the tweet, using their latest public hearing in the wide-ranging investigation to advance their case that Trump’s allies acted in cahoots with the violent extremists who would ultimately storm the Capitol.  

• Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who will help lead Tuesday’s hearing, noted that the tweet followed a Dec. 18, 2020, meeting at the White House where some of Trump’s closest allies pushed him to seize voting machines in key states.
• Trump ultimately decided against the idea, but as options dwindled to remain in power, he shifted gears to focus on a protest the day of the election certification — something online chatter shows Trump’s most zealous supporters took as a call to arms.  

The infamous tweet: Trump’s first full-throated endorsement of that protest — the now-infamous Dec. 19 tweet, sent at 1:42 a.m. — cited a report from Peter Navarro, a top aide, claiming to demonstrate proof of massive voter fraud.

“Statistically impossible to have lost the 2020 Election,” Trump wrote, before urging his supporters to come to Washington on Jan. 6 for the “wild” protest. 

A year and a half later, the committee is leaning on that message to boost their allegations that Trump orchestrated the Capitol attack in a last-ditch effort to cling to power. 

Read more here 

Read more from The Hill: 

• Jan. 6 panel to examine extremist groups, ties to Trump 
• Capitol Police sergeant injured on Jan. 6 says Trump betrayed oath to Constitution 
• Raskin: Jan. 6 panel to highlight voting machine seizure meeting 
• Jan 6 panel member: Cipollone provided ‘relevant information about what was happening in the White House’ 

Sailor found dead aboard aircraft carrier

A Navy sailor was found dead aboard the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier on Sunday while the ship was docked at Naval Air Station North Island, Calif., according to the service.  

The Navy Region Southwest Federal Fire Department responded to the scene and pronounced the sailor dead, the Navy said in a statement.   

Limited details: The service is investigating the circumstances of the death, though there are no indications of suicide or foul play, the statement noted.   

Earlier: The Carl Vinson, which has been in the California area since February, notably suffered a F-35C fighter jet crash on Jan. 24 while deployed in the South China Sea.   

The aircraft crashed onto the deck of the ship as it was landing, fell into the water and was not recovered until early March. The mishap injured seven sailors. 

Read the full story here 

ON TAP 

• The House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol will hold a hearing on the January 6th Investigation at 10 a.m.. 
• The American Security Project will host a virtual discussion previewing President Biden’s Middle East trip,” at 10 a.m.   
• The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies will hold an event on the Russia/Ukraine conflict with Evelyn Farkas, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, at 10 a.m.  
• The Hudson Institute will host a virtual discussion on “Standing with Allies Against China and Russia,” with Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.), at 12 p.m.   
• The Jewish Institute for National Security of America will host a virtual talk on “Policy Priorities for Biden’s Middle East Trip,” at 2 p.m.  
• The Intelligence and National Security Alliance will hold a virtual discussion on “Trusting the Intelligence Community,” at 2 p.m. 

WHAT WE’RE READING

• House Democrat targets F-16 sales to Turkey over Greek security concerns 
• US defense firm ends talks to buy Israeli spyware from controversial firm 
• Russia ‘struggling’ to give troops in Ukraine breaks from combat: UK intelligence 
• Zelensky: Russia fired ‘deliberately, purposefully’ at ‘ordinary houses’ 
• Ukraine defense chief says US rocket systems have been ‘game-changer’ 
• Ukraine urges evacuation in southern Kherson region ahead of counterattack 
• The Hill: Opinion: Even without Shinzo Abe, Japan may build up its military 
• The Associated Press: Retired general suspended after tweet critical of Jill Biden 

That’s it for today! Check out The Hill’s Defense and National Security pages for the latest coverage. See you tomorrow!

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Health Care — FDA to review first over-the-counter birth control pill

We’ll probably reach a global population of 8 billion by the end of this year, at least according to the United Nations. 

In health news, the Food and Drug Administration will review an application for what could be the first over-the-counter birth control pill, amid heightened concerns for contraception access following the overturning of Roev. Wade.  

Welcome to Overnight Health Care, where we’re following the latest moves on policy and news affecting your health. For The Hill, we’re Peter Sullivan, Nathaniel Weixel and Joseph Choi. Someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here.

Feds receive application for OTC birth control pill 

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Monday received an application for the first over-the counter birth control pill.   

The move came as the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade is heightening attention on contraceptive access.   

The application for a daily birth control pill available without a prescription comes from the drug company HRA Pharma.  

Don’t expect immediate changes: The FDA will likely take months to review the application, but the application itself is an important milestone.    

• The company pointed to research showing that 29 percent of women who had tried to get a birth control prescription reported ever having a problem getting one.  
• Over-the-counter birth control access has been a long-running push. More than 50 House Democrats wrote to FDA Commissioner Robert Califf on the issue upon in confirmation in March. 

The American Medical Association has also called for over-the-counter birth control access.   

“Providing patients with OTC access to the birth control pill is an easy call from a public health perspective as the health risks of pregnancy vastly outweigh those of oral contraceptive use,” David Aizuss, an AMA board member, said in a statement last month.  

Read more here. 

Biden: Abortions must be provided in emergencies

The Biden administration on Monday said doctors and hospitals need to follow federal law and provide abortions if there is a medical emergency and the health or life of the patient is at risk, regardless of state law. 

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) reaffirmed that the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA)  protects providers when offering legally mandated, life- or health-saving abortion services in emergency situations.  

• Administration officials said the federal government can penalize doctors or hospitals that fail to provide care in those circumstances.  
• Under the law, if an emergency medical condition is found to exist, the hospital must provide available stabilizing treatment or an appropriate transfer to another hospital that has the capabilities to provide stabilizing treatment.  

Old law: EMTALA has been on the books for over 30 years.  

HHS officials on a call with reporters said the administration is not making any new policy or changes to the existing law. The point of the guidance is to remind providers that the EMTALA law exists, and preempts any state restrictions. 

Read more here.  

ADVOCATES SUBMIT SIGNATURES FOR ABORTION BALLOT MEASURE   

Abortion rights advocates in Michigan are one step closer to securing a ballot measure that would let voters decide whether abortion remains legal. 

A coalition of advocacy groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Michigan and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Michigan, said it secured nearly 754,000 signatures to put an abortion rights constitutional amendment on the ballot in November. 

Michigan requires a little more than 425,000 voter signatures for an issue to qualify for the ballot. 

What it would do: The groups said the reproductive freedom ballot measure is the first of its kind nationwide and a blueprint for other states to preserve or restore reproductive freedom post-Roe.  

The amendment would define the right to make and carry out decisions about all matters relating to pregnancy, including birth control, abortion, prenatal care and childbirth, in the Michigan Constitution. 

Read more here. 

END OF ROE MAKES BAD SITUATION WORSE FOR INCARCERATED WOMEN

The Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade is raising concerns for women of color who are behind bars — a population that could be disproportionately affected by abortion bans in states across the country.   

Women of color are statistically more likely to seek an abortion and to be incarcerated, highlighting why advocates worry they could be hurt by the decision. 

“The criminalization of abortion is going to further drive mass incarceration,” said Chelsea Moore, policy director for the non-profit Dream Corps Justice. “And anytime we see any form of new criminalization, it inevitably disproportionately impacts Black and indigenous people of color.”  

Women in jail already faced severe hurdles to access health care services, including obtaining menstrual products and abortion services.   

Roe’s overturning significantly complicates an already difficult situation, raising questions of how women will be treated in federal facilities, state prisons and county jails that lie under different state laws. 

Read more here. 

After Roe, anti-abortion groups set sights on state level

Anti-abortion groups are focusing their efforts on state legislatures in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade.   

March for Life, a group that organizes a yearly national march in Washington, D.C., against abortion, will start to focus its activism more on the state level, Jeanne Mancini, president of the group, told The Hill.   

In the next year, the group wants to double the number of state marches they have and “over the course of the next five to six years aggressively and quickly grow our state marches program to be in all 50 states,” Mancini said.   

Mallory Carroll, vice president of communications at Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, told The Hill the organization plans to focus their efforts in states where they believe they could see progress with anti-abortion legislation.   

“We’ve prioritized plans in states that we believed and are indeed are being most ambitious right away to protect unborn human life and thereby limiting abortion so women are needing more services,” she said. “The status quo is unlikely to change for women in states like California, Illinois, New York and Maryland.” 

The overturning of Roe v. Wade was a huge victory for the anti-abortion movement. The 1973 landmark decision previously hindered activists’ ability to see progress on advocacy for anti-abortion laws at the state level.   

Read more here.  

WHAT WE’RE READING

• Moderna is developing two different omicron-targeting booster shots (Wall Street Journal) 
• U.S. orders 3.2 million doses of Novavax COVID vaccine (Reuters) 
• Hospitals’ challenge: money, staff, training for next crisis (Bloomberg Law) 

STATE BY STATE

• Medi-Cal’s reliance on prisoners to make cheaper eyeglasses proves shortsighted (Kaiser Health News) 
• Post-Roe, many autoimmune patients lose access to ‘gold standard’ drug (LA Times) 
• Pennsylvania is looking at a $250 million investment in long-term care (City & State Pennsylvania) 

OP-EDS IN THE HILL

Don’t forget about our youngest children: Most remain unvaccinated 

That’s it for today, thanks for reading. Check out The Hill’s Health Care page for the latest news and coverage. See you tomorrow.

VIEW FULL VERSION HERE

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Inflation terror at the Fed

President Franklin Roosevelt said at his first Inauguration in March 1933 that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself … unreasoning, unjustified terror.”  FDR was speaking at the depths of the Great Depression but what he said is relevant in 2022 when a recession is not yet a sure thing. Today’s unreasoning terror is that inflation will surge out of control when the thing to fear is that raising interest rates could lead to a dangerous downturn. 

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said recently that inflation is a greater danger than recession, and other Fed officials agree with him. This is ominous because inflation has never hurt Americans as much as a dozen recessions since the founding of the country when prices fell instead of going up and farmers and workers suffered acutely. Unfortunately, even Democrats like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, share Powell’s view. She rushed to “confess” a few weeks ago that inflation in mid-2022 is worse than she thought it would be and that she was wrong to think that it would ease quickly. She obviously was wrong to expect a quick end to rising prices but in the Democrats’ defense every administration makes rosy predictions. The more important mistake is to cheer for those who think raising rates is a good idea and to respond timidly to the Fed’s willingness to risk a recession to blunt this episode of inflation. 

Democrats like Yellen should untie themselves from the Fed and the crowd pushing high interest rates. Democrats have been right to target spending toward long-term investment in alternatives to fossil fuels. They are right to be fighting inflation by attacking bottlenecks at ports and transport hubs and right to add new capacity to produce advanced computer chips and similar high-tech supplies. Indeed, some of the price increases associated with these bottlenecks are fading already like ocean shipping rates, lumber prices, and inventory shortages at Walmart, Target, and other outlets. Unfortunately, high interest rates will do little to bring the worldwide surge in energy prices down and Russian President Vladimir Putin would love to see the Fed cause a recession that would further discredit the U.S. and democratic government. 

Democrats also should be explaining more clearly to the public how they; the previous administration and Congress took successful action to ease the pain of the COVID-19 recession. Both administrations and the Congress were right to spend over $5 trillion of government money to replace the lost incomes of 20 million Americans put out of work by COVID-19 when large parts of the economy shut down. A hugely interesting question that economists should be asking is: What would have happened after the Crash of 1929 if President Hoover had spent government money to support incomes and investment the way government did from 2020 to 2022? My view is that the world would have avoided the Great Depression if Hoover had acted so boldly.  

It is also worthwhile to see how President Trump temporarily made Republicans recognize the central role that government has to play when the economy is in trouble. For all the viciousness and deliberate divisiveness of his politics, when it came to the COVID recession he thought like a developer, a borrower, a newcomer. He had always benefited from low interest rates and spending, and that is what he supported when COVID hit. He brought reactionary Republicans to support stimulus spending that they never would have supported if it had been proposed by Democrats. Since President Biden’s election, Republican reactionaries have reverted to form. They opposed the stimulus Biden added in early 2022 and now blame it for inflation. They also blame Biden for supporting alternative energy development, arguing that it has discouraged oil companies from drilling new wells, although domestic oil and gas production is increasing now.   

In the 1970s, the last time the oil cartel had the power to raise prices, Americans adjusted, and cars, homes and industries became far more efficient. Interest rates of 6, 7 or 8 percent rather than 2 or 3 percent will make it more expensive to adjust to climate change and a less globalized post-Ukraine world. The risk is not inflation. The risk is what will happen if Americans can’t afford to borrow to help the economy adapt. There will be less demand for carpenters, plumbers, electricians, factory workers, shipping services, drivers and warehouse personnel, wages will stagnate, and inequality will worsen. 

Raising rates is risky. What Fed chairmen like Powell and his predecessors like to call a “soft landing” is the slippery slope to recession. If Powell and his fellows overshoot, there will be a recession with serious economic and political consequences. This is what we should fear. 

Paul A. London, Ph.D., was a senior policy adviser and deputy undersecretary of Commerce for Economics and Statistics in the 1990s, a deputy assistant administrator at the Federal Energy Administration and Energy Department, and a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. A legislative assistant to Sen. Walter Mondale (D-Minn.) in the 1970s, he was a foreign service officer in Paris and Vietnam and is the author of two books, including “The Competition Solution: The Bipartisan Secret Behind American Prosperity” (2005).   

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Olympic long-distance champion Mo Farah says he was illegally trafficked to UK as child

Team Great Britain Olympic long-distance runner Sir Mohamed “Mo” Farah said on Monday that he was illegally trafficked to the United Kingdom as a child.

Farah told the BBC that he was taken from Djibouti and forced to work as a servant in the U.K. after his name was changed from Hussein Abdi Kahin.

“For years I just kept blocking it out,” Farah said. “But you can only block it out for so long.”

Farah claims that he was told by the woman who trafficked him that he was going to Europe to live with family and that she had falsified documents for him with the name Mohamed.

The four-time Olympic gold medal winner has previously maintained that he and his family were refugees from Somalia, but now says that his parents and brothers lived in Somaliland and never came to the U.K.

Farah said he realized that he was being tricked when the women ripped up a piece of paper Farah had taken to the U.K. with his relatives’ contact information written on it.

“At that moment, I know I was in trouble,” he said.

Farah recalls that the woman said, “If you ever wanna see your family again, don’t say anything.”

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Biden, NASA unveil first full-color Webb image, 'looking back more than 13 billion years'

President Biden on Monday revealed the first full-color image from the James Webb Space Telescope, the deepest view of the universe ever captured.

“This is the oldest documented light in the history of the universe from 13 billion — let me say that again, 13 billion — years ago,” Biden said, introducing the highest-resolution images yet of the infrared universe.

He called the unveiling of these images “a historic moment for science and technology, for astronomy and space exploration, for America and all of humanity.” The rest of the images will be released at 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday.

NASA unveiled the image on a screen at the White House, to applause from those assembled.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said the image shows “one little speck of the universe,” and it includes galaxies shining around others whose light has been bent.

“We’re getting our first glimpse, as you said Mr. President, we’re looking back more than 13 billion years. Light travels at 186,000 miles per second and that light that you’re seeing on one of those little specks has been traveling for over 13 billion years,” he said.

He added that the other images go back about 13.5 billion years, which is almost “to the beginning,” considering the universe is approximately 13.8 billion years old.

Nelson said that images from the telescope are “so precise” that it can show whether or not planets are habitable.

“Whoa,” Biden responded.

“We are going to be able to answer questions that we don’t even know what the questions are yet,” Nelson said.

“It’s amazing,” Biden said.

On Tuesday, a formal reveal of the other images will be broadcast live online, and viewing events are scheduled nationwide to mark the occasion.

Vice President Harris, chair of the National Space Council, said that this telescope allows the U.S. to “look to the sky with new understanding” and called it “one of humanities’ great engineering achievements.”

“Now, we enter a new phase of scientific discovery. Building on the legacy of Hubble [Space Telescope], the James Webb Space Telescope allows us to see deeper into space than ever before and in stunning clarity. It will enhance what we know about the origins of our universe, our solar system, and possibly, life itself,” Harris said.

The James Webb Space Telescope launched in December in collaboration with the European Space Agency and the Canadian Space Agency.

Biden said on Monday that the partnership symbolizes “the relentless spirit of American ingenuity” and shows how the U.S. leads the world. He also called for more federal investments in science and technology.

Webb’s advanced technology has allowed it to see through time with infrared captures of exoplanet atmospheres, as well as to discover new stars and explore faraway planets.

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Here's where gas prices have dropped the most

Gas prices across the country have fallen over the past several weeks, with the national average dropping about 34 cents from nearly $5.02 last month.

Most states have seen prices drop more than a quarter since the national average peaked on June 14 and some states have witnessed nearly 50-cent declines, though prices have ticked up in a handful of states.

The drop in prices at the pump, which experts have linked to factors including lower oil prices that come with recession fears and reduced demand, haven’t spread uniformly across the country.

Since mid-June, the greatest declines have mostly come from the South and Midwest, according to an analysis conducted by The Hill using data from the American Automobile Association.

Prices in Indiana and Florida have dropped 48 cents per gallon since the middle of last month, followed by 47-cent drops from Ohio and Wisconsin and a 46-cent drop in Texas. 

South Carolina experienced a 43-cent drop, while Michigan and Kentucky saw prices drop by 42 cents, and Delaware, Illinois and Virginia saw prices drop by 41 cents on average. 

A drop in prices doesn’t necessarily mean that a state has the lowest prices nationwide, with some of the decreases occurring in places where prices are generally higher.

The five states with the lowest average prices across the country on Monday were South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas.

And while prices dropped in 46 states since the national peak last month, four states actually saw upticks since then: Wyoming saw a six-cent increase; Hawaii and Idaho each saw eight-cent increases and Utah saw a 17-cent increase. 

Overall, the decline in prices is good news for President Biden, who has drawn low marks in polls amid his handling of record-high prices and faced attacks from Republicans who have latched onto the issue heading into the November midterms.

And while gasoline prices are largely governed by numerous forces in the global oil market, not executive policy, Biden has sought to claim credit for the recent decline. 

“Gas prices, still way too high, have fallen now 25 days in a row, and this week we saw the second-largest single-day decrease in gas prices in a decade,” the president said on Friday. 

“There’s a lot more work to do. But I am suggesting we’re making progress. The program is working,” he added.  

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Greater US efficiency can counter global energy chaos

Much of the proposed energy response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has focused on increasing domestic oil and gas production. While this will help, another powerful tool that has not received sufficient attention is increasing U.S. energy efficiency.

Not only would greater domestic energy efficiency reduce the influence of Russian oil and gas on the U.S. it also would provide other important benefits to American consumers and the economy. Any strategy to counter Russian-induced energy chaos should give greater weight to promoting energy efficiency domestically.

Some have described how increased domestic oil and natural gas production is essential to protecting U.S. strategic interests. While true, the impact can be overestimated. Even as the U.S. has become a leading petroleum producer and net petroleum exporter, a meaningful portion of the oil purchased by Americans at the pump and elsewhere continues to be produced abroad. Last year, for example, the U.S. imported 8.47 million barrels per day of petroleum, equivalent to 43 percent of the nation’s consumption. Looking ahead, imports are expected to continue even as domestic production grows because of various factors, including mismatches between the type of crude oil produced domestically and U.S. refinery capacity. Increasing domestic production can help to shift the share, but it won’t remove the significant presence of imported oil in U.S. markets.

Greater energy efficiency, however, provides an important strategic complement to domestic production by helping to lower how much oil and natural gas Americans need to consume. Whether through better insulation in homes and commercial buildings, improved industrial processes, efficient HVAC systems or more fuel-efficient vehicles — as well as more mundane actions such as engine tune-ups and maintaining proper tire pressure — energy efficiency saves energy with various attendant benefits.

Of particular note in today’s high-price environment, energy efficiency helps to reduce the exposure of American consumers to price volatility from international energy markets. When you need less energy to commute to work or to heat your home, surges in international oil prices will have a smaller impact on household expenses. Dampening U.S. demand for energy through efficiency also helps to diminish upward pressures on prices, benefitting all consumers. It reduces how much money American consumers send abroad to foreign energy suppliers, thereby improving the U.S. trade balance through lowered imports while improving household energy budgets. 

Importantly, energy efficiency generally involves investments in domestic businesses, from American manufacturers to more local service providers. The contractor who installs efficient windows or heat pumps is typically from nearby. Spending locally to create jobs rather than spending on energy imports that fund foreign governments should resonate politically. Moreover, because Europe and other countries will need to invest more in their own energy efficiency for security and climate reasons, the global market for energy efficiency products and know-how should grow. Promoting energy efficiency domestically can help the U.S. industry become a leader in these technologies, creating business opportunities worldwide.

Domestic energy production is indeed a strategic asset for the U.S., and domestic energy efficiency generates many similar gains. Additionally, it can help to support Europe and other allies by increasing the amount of energy the U.S. has available to export under any level of domestic production. And by selling a greater share of domestic production abroad, not only do strategic partners benefit, but once again the U.S. trade balance will improve.

For some, the most important attributes of energy efficiency are the climate benefits. The International Energy Agency’s model (IEA) consistently ranks energy efficiency as the leading clean energy technology. For example, it drives 37 percent of the emissions reductions needed to achieve the “well below 2 degrees Celsius” temperature goal of the Paris Agreement — more than renewables, which weigh in at 32 percent. Greater U.S. energy efficiency provides a way to insulate wallets from price surges while protecting people from the increased fires, droughts and other damage that unchecked climate change could wreak. It would also improve air quality by reducing pollutants through less energy use.

Government programs within the Department of Energy and state-level agencies, as well as private-sector businesses, have been implemented to promote energy efficiency. Many provide financial support to households and industries to purchase energy-efficient equipment, with returns to consumers and society far outweighing costs.

Yet, a much greater effort is needed to spur the substantially greater amounts of investment required to combat climate change. As set out in the IEA’s modeling, a four-fold increase in energy efficiency investments in the U.S. is needed by the 2030s, and a similar increase is required globally.

Given all these advantages, why isn’t there more investment in energy efficiency? The reasons are numerous and well-known within the energy efficiency community. They include an industry that lacks financial and political weight, especially compared to petroleum companies and other energy suppliers. Energy efficiency also, unfortunately, lacks appeal. While the geopolitics of “Big Oil” have captured imaginations for decades, installing insulation and other stories about saving energy are less compelling. While energy efficiency may lack appeal, its benefits, however, are too big to ignore, especially in today’s volatile world.

The U.S. needs greater energy efficiency to protect its consumers from energy chaos driven from abroad, whether that’s Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or future unforeseeable or even predictable events.

Philippe Benoit has over 25 years of experience working in international affairs, including prior management positions at the World Bank and the International Energy Agency.  He is currently research director at Global Infrastructure Analytics and Sustainability 2050. 

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Doomsday political scenario takes shape for Democrats

The midterm election doomsday scenario for Democrats is becoming clearer, scarier, and more real as inflation and gas prices remain stubbornly high and dissatisfaction with President Biden is through the roof.  

Democrats are seeing their chances of retaining the House slimmer than ever, with both history and the dreary political environment working against them. In the Senate, where the party had hoped strong swing state candidates could help save the majority, fears are also growing. 

It seems that wherever voters look, things are bad in Biden’s Washington — and getting worse.  

“Democrats haven’t done things they promised,” said Connor Farrell, a strategist who founded the progressive consultancy Left Rising. “In this environment, the best general election candidates will be bold [ones] that can distinguish themselves from what we’re getting from the White House.”

The high national anxiety  — which many lawmakers, operatives, and activists are now openly acknowledging as problematic  — was further laid bare when a poll released by the New York Times found that just 13 percent of voters surveyed think the country is on the right path. More strikingly, 64 percent of Democratic voters want someone other than Biden as their nominee in 2024.

The high prices of daily essentials, a gloomy appraisal of what’s happening around the country, and the prospect of more impending losses are leaving Democrats more concerned than ever about their odds in November.

“Democratic leadership should look no further than the fact that they need to wake up and step up to the plate,” said Jon Reinish, managing director at the political strategy firm Mercury.

While the idea that Democrats need to brace for a potential fall wipeout is not new, Monday’s poll highlights a trend that many see as particularly damning — a majority of registered Democratic voters are not happy with the overall direction of the U.S. under Biden’s leadership and they are not on board with another four years of it.

Sixty-three percent of Democrats polled said the country is headed in the wrong direction, while only 27 percent said it is on the right track.

“They’re not just losing Independents or you know, Never-Trump Republicans,” said Reinish, referencing two blocs that helped Biden establish a diverse coalition in 2020. “They’re losing their own voters. Democrats’ own voters don’t feel as if their leaders hear their concerns.”

That mindset is adding to what many already fear is an uphill midterm battle. A Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted last month did, however, find that registered voters are evenly split on the generic congressional ballot if the election were held that day.

Beyond the bleak bird’s eye view, there are some granular differences that are adding to frustration within the party and confusion among voters. The persistent debate about party direction, particularly felt in the battle for the House, is not over, some progressives and moderates say. 

While certain ideological debates have been put on the back burner to focus more acutely on Biden, there are regular disagreements about the types of candidates who can win elections and who deserves to keep their seats. 

Liberals think newer and more progressive candidates should be ushered in during the general election and have worked to defeat some Democrats they believe represent the old guard. A recent example came in Oregon, when insurgent Jamie McLeod-Skinner, an attorney, ousted Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), a rare Biden endorsee, to face off against a Republican in the coming months.

“We think our progresive candidates are best positioned to survive the crosswinds,” said Farrell. “They are the most forceful in advocating for what Democratic voters actually want – bold leadership.”

But even that has sparked resentment, adding to the perception that the party lacks unity and direction on top of all their other problems. 

And while some moderates typically like to jab progressives whom they believe can’t win general elections, others are now even cautious about bringing Biden into the conversation as a leader worth emulating. That hesitation has further blurred the lines of the ideal prototype of a Democrat who can win.  

To that end, some prominent centrists have appeared to be moving away from Biden in recent weeks. The latest came from Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who is typically outspoken about the dangers of moving too far to the left ahead of election time. 

She recently gave a speech in Woodbridge where she failed to offer even a tacit nod to the commander-in-chief. And Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), one of Biden’s close personal friends who is running for the Senate, also decided not to show up for an event the president held in Cleveland. 

Strategists have taken note. 

“You’ll probably see moderates like [Spanberger] cold shouldering Biden and progressives pushing him to do more,” Farrell said. 

In the Senate, the outlook is more up-in-the-air. With the chamber currently split 50-50, it is anyone’s game.

Reinish said he was not shocked by the numbers in the Times poll because they reflect a growing frustration Democrats are feeling with 79-year-old Biden and top congressional figures in the party who have served in leadership roles for decades with no indication of stepping down.

“Democrats are angry, frustrated, dissatisfied and dispirited,” he said, reacting to the data. “And that’s not surprising to me.”

While social issues remain important to activists and others in Democratic circles, economic issues topped the list of topics voters care about more than anything, building on a trend that’s endured cycle after cycle. 

Twenty percent of registered voters said the economy, including jobs and the stock market, is the most important problem facing the country today, which was the highest figure any issue received. Inflation and the cost of living came in second with 15 percent.

With all the bad news, a newly released jobs report gave some relief to the White House in search of more than a simple narrative tweak. 

“In the second quarter of this year, we created more jobs than in any quarter under any of my predecessors in the nearly 40 years before the pandemic,” Biden said in a statement announcing the optimistic numbers late last week. 

“We have more Americans working in the private sector today than any day during Donald Trump’s Presidency – more people than any time in our history,” he said, careful to specifically call out his predecessor that many believe is exploring the idea of a rematch. 

The White House is also going to great lengths to point out that gas prices are seeing even the tiniest decline.

In that, Democrats see another potential bright spot on the horizon, if not for 2022, but two years later. 

For now, Biden still beats Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head match up in 2024. The  edge is narrow and within the margin of error – 44 percent to 41 percent – but it’s something they can work with, some say. 

“The Republicans cannot point to anything that they’re actually for. The only thing that they can tell you is that they are against what we are for,” said Antjuan Seawright, an operative based in South Carolina. “And so if anything, they should be fearful that we will hold them accountable between now and November about how high the stakes are, and what can and cannot be done between their party and ours.”

Source: TEST FEED1

J-6 panel shifts focus to Trump ‘tweet heard around the world’

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol will turn its focus this week to former President Trump’s campaign to rally protesters to Washington, pointing to one tweet in particular as a pivotal moment in the violent effort to overturn his election defeat. 

​​“Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!” Trump tweeted Dec. 19, 2020. 

That message, the investigators contend, acted as a shrewd battle cry to the far-right extremist groups and other supporters who were wrongly convinced the election had been “stolen” and viewed Jan. 6, 2021 — when Congress met to certify Joe Biden’s victory — as their last best chance to keep Trump in power.  

On Tuesday, lawmakers on the select committee will drill into the events both before and after the tweet, using their latest public hearing in the wide-ranging investigation to advance their case that Trump’s allies acted in cahoots with the violent extremists who would ultimately storm the Capitol. 

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who will help lead Tuesday’s hearing, noted that the tweet followed a Dec. 18, 2020, meeting at the White House where some of Trump’s closest allies pushed him to seize voting machines in key states. Trump ultimately decided against the idea, but as options dwindled to remain in power, he shifted gears to focus on a protest the day of the election certification — something online chatter shows Trump’s most zealous supporters took as a call to arms. 

Trump’s first full-throated endorsement of that protest — the now-infamous Dec. 19 tweet, sent at 1:42 a.m. — cited a report from Peter Navarro, a top aide, claiming to demonstrate proof of massive voter fraud. “Statistically impossible to have lost the 2020 Election,” Trump wrote, before urging his supporters to come to Washington on Jan. 6 for the “wild” protest.

A year and a half later, the committee is leaning on that message to boost their allegations that Trump orchestrated the Capitol attack in a last-ditch effort to cling to power.

“Donald Trump sent out the tweet that would be heard around the world, the first time in American history when a president of the United States called a protest against his own government, in fact, to try to stop the counting of electoral college votes in a presidential election he had lost,” Raskin said Sunday in an appearance on CBS News’s “Face The Nation.”  

“People are going to hear the story of that tweet, and then the explosive effect it had in Trump World and specifically among the domestic violent extremist groups, the most dangerous political extremists in the country,” Raskin said.

It’s those groups — including the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, both of which were on the front lines of the Capitol insurrection  — that will be the focus of Tuesday’s hearing, the seventh since the middle of June.

The panel will also explore the role of QAnon, a far-right political movement based largely on a series of extravagant conspiracy theories including a belief that the country is governed by covert cabals of Satan-worshiping pedophiles. 

“We’ll show how some of these right-wing extremist groups who came to D.C. [and] led the attack on the Capitol and had ties to Trump associates,” a select committee aide said Monday. 

The most prominent connection between those two worlds, up to now, has been the association between the extremist groups and two former Trump advisers, Roger Stone and Michael Flynn, both of whom were vocal figures in the “Stop the Steal” movement and used members of those groups for protective services. Trump had urged his chief of staff, Mark Meadows, to contact both Stone and Flynn on Jan. 5, according to a former West Wing aide who testified before the committee last month. 

Trump communications guru Dan Scavino is another possible link between the president and extremist groups, with Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) noting “his interactions with an online forum called ‘The Donald.win’ and with QAnon, a bizarre and dangerous cult.”

Aides for the select committee said they would also have more information to offer on the efforts of Republican lawmakers, including “their involvement in a pressure campaign against the vice president specifically.”

“In the last days leading up to Jan. 6, where we did see sort of all these last ditch efforts to overturn the election results and stop transfer of power, the involvement of members of Congress became more apparent,” another aide said. 

The committee would not formally disclose its witness list for Tuesday’s hearing, but reports indicate Jason Van Tatenhove, a former spokesman for the Oath Keepers who parted ways with the militia group in 2017, will appear.

According to documents already made public, Trump’s tweet appears to have mobilized a number of groups. 

Stop the Steal organizer Ali Alexander applied for a permit on the Capitol grounds “on or about” Dec. 21, roughly two days after Trump’s tweet, according to a subpoena from the select committee.

Organizations like the Proud Boys were also spurred to action, with prosecutors noting that the group’s leader at the time, Enrique Tarrio, started a “Ministry of Self Defense” chapter that would serve as their “national rally planning” group and would consist only of “hand selected members,” according to Tarrio’s March indictment. His launching of the group fell roughly a week after his Dec. 12 visit to the White House — something the Trump administration said he did on a public tour.

An indictment for Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes likewise indicates the far-right militia group initiated plans to travel to the rally in “late December,” coordinating their travel plans through encrypted messaging apps. 

Members of both groups, including Rhodes and Tarrio, have since been indicted for seditious conspiracy, which carries a sentence of up to 20 years in prison.

The tweet from Trump also ignited excitement on various pro-Trump platforms, including a page dedicated to the president on Reddit, as well as theDonald.win.

Their takeaway was that Trump was calling them to come to D.C. prepared to engage in violence.

“He can’t exactly openly tell you to revolt. This is the closest he’ll ever get,” one user wrote on Reddit. 

“I read that as armed,” another user wrote.

“Then bring the guns we shall,” wrote another.

Others focused on the “wild” part of Trump’s message, with some drawing comparisons to the Wild West.

“’Will Be Wild’ is a hidden message for us to be prepared ….as in armed,” another user wrote on Reddit.

Trump supporters’ openness about their interpretation of his tweet has long been used as evidence of an intelligence failure leading up to the attack. 

And documentation shows it wasn’t just chatter.

Reviews have since indicated law enforcement largely overlooked plans to storm the Capitol, including the sharing of maps detailing the Capitol’s below ground tunnel system.

And subsequent filings in the seditious conspiracy case against various Oath Keepers members show they staged a “quick reaction force” at a Comfort Inn in Virginia, wheeling in “bags and large bins of weapons, ammunition, and essential supplies to last 30 days,” according to a January court filing. 

Tuesday’s hearing is the only one slated for this week, committee aides said, with another hearing planned for some point the following week.

Source: TEST FEED1