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Election fallout from abortion ruling will depend on how each side responds

The Dobbs decision overturning nearly 50 years of Roe v. Wade has scrambled American politics. The traditional media and twitterverse are in panic mode. Conservatives are exultant, and unhappy liberals are looking toward using the decision to short-circuit a potential GOP wave in the mid-terms.

But the fallout is likely to be less than many in the hyperventilating, insular media think.

Electoral outcomes will more likely be driven by a combination of higher-priority issues, like the economy, and competence (or incompetence) of the two political parties in responding. Like most American politics, that response is looking like a race to the bottom, leaving voters to choose between the least palatable alternatives conservatives and liberals can conceive.

In order to get a good handle on public opinion, I reviewed polling from before the leak of the potential decision (March), from just before Dobbs was released and during the aftermath. Keep in mind the immediate post-Dobbs polling is likely influenced by the emotion of the moment.

Note on polling: I use YouGov polls, as all the crosstabs are publicly available. YouGov also asks consistent questions. Their polling does oversample women, giving the aggregate percentages likely a small bias toward the pro-choice position (women are more pro-choice than men). That bias, however, is small — about 2-3 points — and does not affect the overall conclusions. Sub-group polling numbers are not affected.

Majority for the middle

Most polling is not good for the most stringent pro-life positions, nor did the public want to see a change in Roe. Majorities do not exist for legalized abortion with zero restrictions, either. In fact, both the “never legal” and “always legal” positions are very much in the minority.

In March, 27 percent opposed any restrictions, while 14 percent favored a complete ban. Only 30 percent wanted to see Roe overturned, and respondents opposed prohibitions on traveling to get an abortion, 59 percent to 20 percent. The pre-DobbsJune poll had 26 percent opposing any restrictions while 13 percent favored a complete ban. In the immediate aftermath of the decision, those numbers moved to 31 percent for no restrictions and 12 percent for a ban.

The notable takeaway is that a solid majority favors some restrictions, with a low of 57 percent in the post-Dobbsheat of the moment, down from 61 percent — near the margin of error.

Opinions are sensitive to how questions are framed. Even listing a series of options for limits and exceptions changes responses. But the dividing line on restrictions is 15 weeks. When tested on its own, 46 percent favor a 15-week ban and 47 percent oppose. In the pre-Dobbs poll 38 percent favor a complete ban or a ban after the second trimester (26 weeks) and 50 percent favor a complete ban or ban after the first trimester (13 weeks). A 15-week ban holds the balance at 11 percent.

The public strongly favors the “three exceptions” of rape, incest and the woman’s health/life. In the post-Dobbspoll, all demographic and ideological groups had strong majorities. Even conservatives — the most pro-life — favored these exceptions. The narrowest margin was in the case of rape, where 55 percent of conservatives approve, 31 percent opposed. Exceptions for no life expectance for the child or mental and physical disabilities was also favored.

The public becomes much less accepting for non-health related reasons. Sex-selection was opposed 71 percent to 19 percent. Only liberals were under a majority opposition (48 percent to 39 percent net opposed). In the pre-Dobbs poll, reasons like “unmarried and does not want the child” (30 percent favor) and “cannot afford” (34 percent) performed poorly.

The most interesting feature of the polling on limits is that support for banning abortions in all circumstances falls precipitously after reading a list of options. In the pre-Dobbs poll, support for never allowing an abortion falls to 9 percent overall and just 19 percent with conservatives. In the post-Dobbs poll, only 5 percent agree with the statement “a pregnant woman should never” have an abortion (12 percent conservatives) after hearing a long list of contingencies.

The upshot is, if pro-choice advocates can keep the issue on the front-burner for the public and support a menu of popular restrictions, they can gain support. When faced with an absolutist “never permitted” position, the public is clearly opposed. But the converse is also true. The public does not consider abortion a private, elective procedure that should be permissible under any circumstances.

The challenge for pro-choice advocates is getting the public to care. And that’s a problem.

In March, abortion was cited by just 4 percent as their top issue; overall it was tied for 10^th out of 14 listed issues and far behind the economy (17 percent) and health care (15 percent). Separately, 42 percent called the issue “very important.” The post-Dobbs poll, likely the high-water, has abortion as the top issue for 7 percent, tied for sixth place and 48 percent calling the issue “very important.”

In addition, it is liberals and college-educated white women driving the pro-choice results. On all questions of issue importance, liberals and college-educated women are the largest group opposing any restrictions and who now put the highest priority on the issue.

The extremes will likely decide the effects

The effect of Dobbs for Congress will likely be on the margins and will probably benefit Democrats — but not if they overplay their hand. Misinterpreting opposition to banning abortion as support for the liberal position of no restrictions would be a severe overreach. Republicans like Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who has proposed a ban at 15 weeks, are in the majority, provided they carry everyone on the pro-life side of that divide.

Fortunately for the left, there is Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), who apparently is determined to chase women across state lines, cut back on the legality of some sexual practices, and perhaps wage a jihad on heavy petting. From all accounts, those moving to Texas are seeking lower taxes and less regulation, not Paxton’s morality police. Paxton and some other conservative Republicans are playing a risky game of “chicken” with Texas voters — and it would not be surprising if they pay a price in November, while candidates for Congress sail to victory. (However, conservatives do get to run against Gavin Newsom’s no-questions-asked California abortion vacation program.)

Since the fight is now in the states, the issue is more likely to affect governor and legislative races. Both sides would probably be wise to punt the issue to referenda for the voters. Given emotions, that will not satisfy the activists, but it would attenuate things.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.

Source: TEST FEED1

To combat sleep loss, California schools are pushing back start times

Beginning this month, public high schools in California are starting later in a statewide effort to help adolescents get more sleep and combat a national sleep crisis.  

California’s SB 328 went in effect July 1. The law requires public high schools to start no earlier than 8:30 am and middle schools no earlier than 8 am, citing the academic benefits of a later school start time.  

The American Sleep Assocation (ASA) recommends teenagers get eight to 10 hours of sleep every night, but many don’t. With busy schedules, active social lives and rapidly changing bodies, teens face varying reasons for their lack of sleep.  

One 2010 study found most teens are living with mild to severe sleep deprivation — with only 8 percent of U.S. high school students getting the recommended amount of sleep. Researchers found 23 percent of teens only got six hours of sleep on an average school night and 10 percent only got five hours.  

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The study also noted that many teens often participate in more activities than they have time for, resulting in less sleep. It’s a cycle that worsens by the fact that some high schools start as early as 7:20 am, while research has shown that teens don’t function well before 9 am. 

Insufficient sleep takes a toll on academic performance, with the National Sleep Foundation poll finding 28 percent of students reported falling asleep in school at least once a week and more than one in five fell asleep doing homework with similar frequency. 

The American Academy of Pediatrics also recommends school districts help optimize sleep in students by aiming for start times that give them the opportunity to get eight and a half to nine and a half hours of sleep.  

Not getting enough sleep has serious consequences beyond poor academic performance, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) noting it can lead to teens being overweight, not engaging in daily physical activity and taking on unhealthy behaviors like drinking, smoking tobacco and using illicit drugs. 

Lack of sufficient sleep is also linked to teens being more likely to suffer from symptoms of depression. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Watch Live: Biden awards Medal of Honor to four Vietnam War veterans

President Biden will award four U.S. Army soldiers who fought in the Vietnam War.

The event is scheduled to begin at 11:15 a.m. ET.

Watch the video above.

Source: TEST FEED1

Mexican national killed, others wounded in Fourth of July shooting, official says

A person of Mexican nationality was among those killed in the shooting at the Fourth of July parade in Highland Park, Ill., on Monday, according to a top Mexican official.

Roberto Velasco Álvarez, the head of the North America unit for Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in a tweet that the ministry confirmed one Mexican national was killed and two others were wounded in the attack. 

He said the ministry sends its “sincerest condolences” to everyone who was killed in the shooting. 

Álvarez said officials are staying in contact with local authorities and the Consulate General of Mexico in Chicago is in touch with the families of the victims, who will have the “full support” of the foreign affairs ministry. 

A shooter killed at least six and injured two dozen other attendees of the parade in the Chicago suburb. Police have arrested a person of interest in connection with the shooting.

Source: TEST FEED1

Broncos great Demaryius Thomas had Stage 2 CTE, report says

DENVER (KDVR) – A new report released from the New York Times on Tuesday morning says that former Denver Broncos great Demaryius Thomas had Stage 2 chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) when he died in December.

Thomas died at 33 on Dec. 9, 2021 from what is believed to have been medical complications stemming from a 2019 crash. His official cause of death has not been released from the coroner’s office.

According to the Times, doctors from Boston University posthumously diagnosed Thomas with Stage 2 CTE.

A doctor and neuroscientist with the Concussion Legacy Foundation said both CTE and seizures from the crash were conditions Thomas struggled with.

All-time Broncos great

“DT,” one of the all-time greatest Broncos wide receivers, announced his official retirement from the NFL in 2021 after a 10-year career.

He was a first-round draft pick for the Broncos in 2010 and played nine seasons with the team. He was part of the winningest four-year period in team history from 2012-15, when the team won two AFC Championships and Super Bowl 50. He also made five consecutive Pro Bowls.

Thomas finished his career ranking second in Broncos history with 9,055 receiving yards and 60 touchdown catches, while his 665 receptions ranks third. In 143 career games, Thomas had 724 catches for 9,763 yards and 63 touchdowns.

He would have been eligible to be honored in the Broncos Ring of Fame in 2026.

In his 10 seasons in the NFL, he also played for the Texans, Patriots and Jets.

homas was born in Montrose, a tiny town in southeast Georgia. At age 11, Thomas’ mother and grandmother were arrested on crack-cocaine distribution charges and sentenced to 20 years and life in prison, respectively.

Thomas’ father was serving in the Army and stationed in Kuwait when his mother and grandmother were arrested in 1999. Thomas went to live with an aunt and uncle, Shirley and James Brown, a Baptist minister who lived six miles away.

Thomas took up football to stay off the streets and out of trouble. He went on to play at Georgia Tech, finishing his career with 120 receptions for 2,339 yards and 14 touchdowns in three seasons.

In 2015, President Barack Obama commuted the sentence for his mother, Katina Smith, and she was eventually able to see her son play football in person. During the Super Bowl 50 honoring ceremony at the White House, Thomas delivered a letter to Obama asking him to pardon the sentence for his grandmother, Minnie Pearl Thomas. It was commuted two months later.

Source: TEST FEED1

US stealth fighters arrive in South Korea amid tensions with North

U.S. Air Force F-35 stealth fighter jets arrived in South Korea on Tuesday to conduct flight operations alongside their South Korean counterparts amid tensions with North Korea.

The aircraft are expected to fly with several others over South Korea and surrounding waters as part of a 10-day training mission, U.S. Forces Korea said in a statement. South Korean F-35 aircrafts are expected to fly with the American aircraft.

“The familiarization and routine training flights will enhance the interoperability of the two Air Forces to perform and operate on and around the Korean Peninsula,” the statement said.

“The aviation training is also an opportunity for the aircrews to perform sustainment and maintenance duties to support the latest in military aircraft technology,” it added.

In a separate statement, South Korea’s defense ministry said the drills are aimed at “demonstrating the South Korea-U.S. alliance’s strong deterrence and combined defense posture, as well as improving interoperability between the two Air Forces,” according to Yonhap News Agency.

Tuesday’s deployment is the first time in five years the U.S. publicly deployed stealth warplanes to South Korea. Washington last publicly disclosed sending stealth fighters in December 2017, when it sent F-22 stealth fighters and F-35 aircraft to participate in a joint aerial drill.

The drills also come as tensions escalate with North Korea as it appears to ramp up its missile tests.

In early June, the U.S. and its allies flew dozens of jets over the Korean Peninsula in exercises aimed at responding to provocations from Pyongyang, The Associated Press reported at the time.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol welcomed President Biden to Seoul in mid-May, during which the two expressed an interest in expanding combined military drills around the Korean Peninsula.

“Both leaders agree to initiate discussions to expand the scope and scale of combined military exercises and training on and around the Korean Peninsula,” the leaders said in a joint statement on May 21.

In addition, the U.S. also reaffirmed its commitment to “deploy strategic U.S. military assets in a timely and coordinated manner as necessary, as well as to enhance such measures and identify new or additional steps to reinforce deterrence in the face of DPRK destabilizing activities.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Most Americans have poor cardiometabolic health

Fewer than 7 percent of Americans are in optimal cardiometabolic health, according to new research.  

Tufts University researchers evaluated Americans across five components of health, including blood pressure, blood sugar, blood cholesterol, overweight and obesity, and whether they had heart related disease. They found only 6.8 percent had excellent levels across the five indicators.  

“These numbers are striking. It’s deeply problematic that in the United States, one of the wealthiest nations in the world, fewer than 1 in 15 adults have optimal cardiometabolic health,” said the study’s lead author Meghan O’Hearn 

“We need a complete overhaul of our healthcare system, food system, and built environment, because this is a crisis for everyone, not just one segment of the population.” 

For the study, researchers looked at a nationally representative sample of around 55,000 people over 20 from 1999 to 2018, focusing on the five components of health instead of the presence of disease. 

“We don’t just want to be free of disease,” O’Hearn continued. “We want to achieve optimal health and well-being.” 

The team also found several key differences in health along socio-economic, racial and gender lines. Researchers noted, for example, between 1999 and 2018 cardiometabolic health declined for Mexican American, other Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black Americans while increasing slightly among non-Hispanic white Americans.  

“This is really problematic. Social determinants of health such as food and nutrition security, social and community context, economic stability, and structural racism put individuals of different education levels, races, and ethnicities at an increased risk of health issues,” the study’s senior author Dariush Mozaffarian said.  

“This highlights the other important work going on across the Friedman School and Tufts University to better understand and address the underlying causes of poor nutrition and health disparities in the U.S. and around the world.” 

O’Hearn added that addressing this health crisis will require multiple sectors coming together to form solutions alongside the political will to enact changes.  

“This is a health crisis we’ve been facing for a while,” O’Hearn said. “Now there’s a growing economic, social and ethical imperative to give this problem significantly more attention than it has been getting.” 

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A separate study, using the American Heart Association’s new Life Essential 8 metrics, found that only 1 in five Americans have ideal heart health. The measurements of heart health included diet, physical activity, nicotine exposure, sleep duration, body mass index, blood lipids, blood glucose and blood pressure to determine an adult’s overall cardiovascular health.    

An adult’s cardiovascular score — ranging from 1 to 100 — is calculated by adding together totals for the eight metrics then dividing by eight. Scores below 50 indicate poor heart health, while scores between 50 and 79 mean a person is considered in moderate cardiovascular health. The remainder are classified as being in optimal health. 

One study used data from the disease from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination surveys in 2013-2018 to measure the heart health of more than 23,400 U.S. adults and children free of cardiovascular disease. It found that 80 percent of U.S. adults fell into the poor or moderate categories.   

The average health score for both adults and children were below 66. Close to 20 percent of U.S. adults had high cardiovascular health; 62.5 percent were classified as moderate. 

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Cherelle Griner says Brittney Griner is 'struggling': ‘I will not be quiet anymore’

Cherelle Griner said in an interview early Tuesday that she will “not be quiet anymore” and that her wife, WNBA star Brittney Griner, “is struggling” while being detained in Russia.

“Initially, you know, I was told … we’re going to try and handle this behind [the] scenes and, you know, let’s not raise her value and you know, stay quiet and, you know, I did that. And respectfully, we’re over 140 days at this point, that does not work, and so I will not be quiet anymore,” Cherelle Griner said on “CBS Mornings.”

“I will find that balance of, you know, harm versus help in pushing our government to do everything that’s possible because being quiet, they are not moving, they are not doing anything. And so my wife is struggling, and we have to help her,” she added. 

Cherelle Griner also spoke about a handwritten letter that was delivered to the White House on Monday in which the WNBA star urges President Biden not to forget about her and the other American detainees abroad.

“I’m terrified I might be here forever,” Brittney Griner told Biden.

Cherelle Griner said on Tuesday that she believes her wife reached out to Biden directly “because of the failed attempts that we have had as a family.”

“And it kills me every time that, you know, when I have to write her and she’s asking, ‘You know, have you met with him yet?’ And you know, I have to say ‘no’, and she’s like, ‘You know what’ – I’m sure she was like, ‘I’m gonna write him and ask now because, you know, my family has tried and to no avail, so I’m going to do it myself,’” Cherelle Griner said. 

Brittney Griner has been detained in Russia for over four months after hashish oil was allegedly found in her luggage by Russian authorities. Her trial began last week. 

“The U.S. government continues to work aggressively — using every available means — to bring her home,” Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said in a statement on Monday regarding the WNBA star’s letter.

“The President’s team is in regular contact with Brittney’s family and we will continue to work to support her family. National Security Advisor Sullivan and Secretary Blinken have spoken several times with Brittney’s wife in recent weeks and the White House is closely coordinating with the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, who has met with Brittney’s family, her teammates, and her support network,” Watson added. 

The Hill has reached out to the White House for further comment. 

Source: TEST FEED1

This is the wrong time to cut environmental protection

Years of declining resources and stagnant funding have brought the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to a point where it no longer has the resources to fully protect public health and our nation’s environment. The Washington Post recently reported that a “lack of resources and workers” has undercut the agency’s ability “to inspect facilities, measure contamination, punish violators and write new rules to stem pollution and climate change.” 

Despite this alarming erosion of EPA capacity, last March a Congress nominally controlled by the president’s party enacted a fiscal year 2022 EPA appropriation that effectively reduced agency resources, with a token 4 percent “increase” — too small even to offset inflation — to the 2021 budget negotiated by the Trump administration. Congress needs to do better to enable EPA to deliver the environmental protection that America’s people want and need.

This week the House Appropriations Committee adopted and sent to the full House a 2023 appropriation that provides EPA $11.5 billion — $2 billion above last year’s level. It includes $1 billion in new funding for EPA programs, science and research, and buildings and facilities. That will help restore EPA’s core capacity to protect our nation’s air, land and water and rebuild its staff after the devastation of the Trump years and rebuild its diminished capacities to measure pollution, enforce environmental laws, set standards and develop regulations. 

The rest of the new funding goes to state programs and drinking water and wastewater infrastructure, and the bill includes $931 in earmarks for specific infrastructure projects. Infrastructure money goes to EPA to serve as a conduit and pass it through to states, not to rebuild the agency or increase its core capacity to protect the environment.

The new funding includes $200 million for environmental justice, a top administration priority. That will be used to dramatically boost financial assistance to support and empower vulnerable communities and to create a high-level EPA national program office to advance environmental justice and civil rights. That office will ensure full consideration of the disproportionate impacts of pollution on disadvantaged low-income, Black and Indigenous communities and all communities of color and see that environmental justice principles are embedded in all agency activities and programs as well as woven into the fabric of agency decision-making.

The House also provides $90 million for enhanced enforcement and compliance monitoring. That would help the agency reverse years of declines in inspections, investigations, and civil and criminal enforcement actions, all of which fell by half during the Trump administration.  EPA currently cannot afford to hire more inspectors, but with new funding it could crack down on polluters and bring charges against polluting factories, power plants and other facilities.

Enforcement can also advance environmental justice because violations are widespread and the worst polluters often impose the heaviest burdens on disadvantaged communities, treating them as little more than sacrifice zones. With more enforcement resources, EPA can identify and target the worst polluters, mitigating environmental injustices.

Pollution monitoring is also critical to effective enforcement. But budget constraints have recently forced EPA to cut back on air monitoring for critical pollutants at more than two dozen locations across the country.

EPA is requesting $100 million to support a presidential commitment to upgrade a disgraceful national air monitoring system that often fails to detect serious air pollution problems, particularly in overburdened and disadvantaged communities. That monitoring system will provide real-time pollution data to the public, focusing on frontline and fenceline communities that face the worst exposure. Information from the improved monitoring system can help target enforcement attention on the worst problems and the heaviest burdens. 

The House appropriation also increases funding for other agency programs, including pesticide registration, water and ecosystem protection and addressing the harmful man-made chemicals commonly referred to as PFAS pollution. There are also increases for the mundane but essential nuts and bolts of environmental protection: operating programs, collecting information, reviewing and analyzing proposed rules and other actions, and program auditing and oversight.

The need for new resources is particularly conspicuous in implementing 2016 amendments to the Toxic Substances Control Act. Those amendments updated the law and gave EPA new obligations for addressing toxic chemicals, with deadlines for writing new rules and completing risk evaluations. Despite the legislative boost, the program’s budget has barely increased since 2016 while the workload has doubled.

Lack of resources even creates problems for managing data regarding toxic substances that the agency uses to measure and assess safety and risks.  Systems that store the data are plagued by breakdowns, shutdowns and the lack of IT support to fix problems as they arise. One recent shutdown lasted nearly two weeks. 

EPA estimates that it needs 200 new staff members to do the needed work, and expects to miss each of 30 specific deadlines in the new law. The backlog of work and the shortage of staff and money could lead to delays lasting years. Among the toxic substances awaiting new regulations are asbestos, a cancer-causing building material, as well as methylene chloride, a paint stripper linked to at least a dozen deaths between 2000 and 2011 among bathtub refinishers.

Congress needs to step up and provide the resources needed to close the gaps in EPA’s ability to protect the environment and restore its capacity to protect our nation’s people and environment.

David F. Coursen is a former EPA attorney and a member of the Environmental Protection Network, a nonprofit organization of EPA alumni working to protect the agency’s progress toward clean air, water, land and climate protection.

Source: TEST FEED1