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No longer ‘Groundhog Day’ in North Korea

Like the classic movie “Groundhog Day,” North Korea’s seemingly endless ballistic missile tests occur, a mostly inured world condemns then moves on. Passive acceptance. Rinse. Repeat. No more. With 33 missile tests already this year, preparations for a seventh nuclear test (North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un seems to love U.S. holidays, so maybe July 4) and an unusual three-day military meeting last week, Kim is opening a dangerous new  chapter of the “problem from hell” story.

Overshadowed by the Ukraine war and U.S.-China tensions, Kim has altered the military balance in ways that raise new questions about his intentions. He has developed a full array of missiles — including short, medium and long-range ICBMs, tested hypersonic missiles, as well as submarine-launched missiles and solid fuel tactical nuclear missiles. Pyongyang can hit Guam and, most likely, reach the U.S. mainland.

Particularly troubling, at a multi-day Central Military Commission (CMC) strategy session, Kim decided that frontline North Korean military units should have new duties to strengthen the nation’s nuclear deterrent. There is speculation that this may mean deploying battlefield tactical nuclear weapons. What would be Kim’s takeaway if Russian President Vladimir Putin broke the nuclear taboo and used tactical nukes in Ukraine?

Even as North Korea is fighting COVID-19, a food crises and a declining economy, Kim has relentlessly pursued missile and nuclear modernization. He has attained well more than necessary for nuclear deterrence. Additional motives include domestic legitimacy – projecting strength, the sine qua non for dictators of all stripes – and rattling the cages of the U.S., South Korea and Japan.

Kim’s robust new nuclear arsenal appears to be an effort to achieve a second-strike capability. Testing submarine-launched missiles is an important step toward such a survivable nuclear triad with its estimated 20-50 nuclear weapons, altering the military balance. Moreover, North Korea’s continued cycle of tests appear to give it a new ability to evade U.S. missile defenses with cruise and hypersonic glide vehicles difficult for U.S. radars and sensors to detect. Solid fuel missiles reduce U.S. warning time.

What does all this mean? The dream of reunification was what led Kim’s grandfather to invade the South in June 1950. Fantastic as it may sound, it continues to be a long-term goal under Kim. While Kim lacks the conventional military capability to pull off such a stunt, he may view his missiles and nukes as a means of political coercion.

So where do we go from here? To some extent, we are in uncharted waters. But there are some near certainties. Twenty-five years of failed diplomacy and a constant stream of crystal-clear statements of intention from Kim strongly suggest that as long as the Kim dynasty is in power, Pyongyang will not give up its nuclear weapons. Watching the fates of those who abandoned or lacked nuclear weapons – Iraq, Libya, now Ukraine – Kim has concluded that no assurances from the U.S. offer the security blanket his nukes provide.

Not all problems have solutions. Some, like North Korea, can only be managed. In that regard the Biden administration is doing a fair job. The administration has made deepening and broadening trilateral defense and intelligence cooperation a top priority. The administration is repairing its frayed ties to Japan and seems intent on strengthening the U.S.-South Korean relationship. The tempo of military exercise consultations has increased to meet the challenge of updated extended deterrence. This trilateral process has gotten Pyongyang’s attention: It recently accused the U.S. of  setting up an “Asian NATO.”

Unfortunately, Biden has been less successful in managing U.S.-China ties, which continue to be fraught with deepening distrust. China is the chief patron of North Korea, accounting for 90 percent of its trade. Beijing has hoped to avoid having a prickly nuclear weapons state on its border, and in the recent past, North Korea has been an area of U.S.-China cooperation. China hosted the “six party talks” (the U.S., China, Russia, South Korea, North Korea and Japan) in 2003, a process that came very close to a denuclearization deal. And after Pyongyang’s last nuclear test, China cooperated in the UN Security Council to apply unprecedented UN sanctions on North Korea.

But how much China will cooperate in the current political climate is unclear. As Kim’s preparations for a seventh nuclear test have become obvious, Biden officials have been consulting with China in the hope that Beijing’s leverage can dissuade Kim from testing.

A big question is how China will respond if there is a North Korean nuclear test. Beijing’s response will be a measure of what U.S.-China cooperation is possible. China has been urging the U.S. to lift sanctions on North Korea, and if Beijing resists cooperating on a strong response, it would be a shift, an indication that it prefers anything that pains and distracts the U.S. to disciplining North Korea, despite is interests.

Kim recently shook up his advisers, and appointed Choe Son Hui, Pyongyang’s leading America specialist, as foreign minister. Choe was Pyongyang’s negotiator during the six party talks and there is speculation that her appointment might signal an upcoming shift.

One plausible scenario is that after a nuclear test, as the U.S. and much of the world are angry and appalled, Kim shifts gears. As Biden would cast about for the proper punishment, Kim hints that he is willing to talk. But he would suggest not denuclearization but arms control talks, putting Biden in a bind, as Congress would be demanding a tough response.

There is a logic to this. Kim’s ultimate goal is to be accepted as a nuclear state, like Israel or Pakistan, and treated as a normal nation. This could rouse interest in freezing their nuclear and missile programs — for a price.

Pressure for action could tempt the Biden administration to explore such talks. They may be worth exploring, but Kim’s consistent refusal to provide a full declaration of his nuclear program (how can you freeze what you don’t know is there?) and to refuse necessary International Atomic Energy Agency verification and full monitoring would make a credible deal unlikely. That is the lesson of a long history of failed U.S. diplomacy, most recently former President Trump’s two failed summits with Kim.

Yet the temptation may arise. That is just one scenario for how the uncertain new realities on the Korean Peninsula may play out. Other scenarios may be more catastrophic.

Robert A. Manning is a senior fellow of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and its New American Engagement Initiative at the Atlantic Council. He was a senior counselor to the undersecretary of state for global affairs from 2001 to 2004, a member of the U.S. Department of State policy planning staff from 2004 to 2008 and on the National Intelligence Council strategic futures group from 2008 to 2012. Follow him on Twitter @Rmanning4.

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Alyssa Farah Griffin 'in awe of' Cassidy Hutchinson's 'bravery' ahead of congressional testimony

Former White House Communications Director Alyssa Farah praised Cassidy Hutchinson ahead of her testimony Tuesday before the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

“I can’t imagine the pressure Cassidy has been under to defy Congress, facing harassment and threats,” Farah wrote in a tweet on Tuesday. “But she’s putting the country first and for that I am grateful to her & in awe of her bravery.”

The committee made a surprise announcement on Monday that Hutchinson, who served as a special assistant to former President Trump’s chief of staff Mark Meadows, would appear before the panel on Tuesday.

The first White House employee to publicly testify, Hutchinson is believed to have information about what transpired in the chief of staff’s office following the 2020 presidential election.

Since leaving the White House, Farah has been hired as a political analyst on CNN and served as a guest host on ABC’s The View. She has written a book about her experiences in the White House and has criticized Trump, his allies in Congress and his repeated false claims of a “stolen” election.

Sarah Matthews, another former Trump spokesperson also praised Hutchinson.

“Just want to say how much admiration I have for the tremendous bravery Cassidy Hutchinson is displaying. Even in the face of harassment and threats, she is choosing to put her country first and tell the truth,” Matthews said. “This is what real courage, integrity, and patriotism looks like.”

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Texas court blocks enforcement of pre-Roe abortion ban

A Texas court on Tuesday temporarily blocked the state’s long-dormant pre-Roe abortion ban that had suddenly been reinstated, a move that will allow some clinics to resume the practice.

A Texas district court granted a preliminary injunction in response to a lawsuit from activist groups including the American Civil Liberties Union and the Center for Reproductive Rights.

The injunction and lawsuit relate to a 1925 abortion ban that was removed from the books following the Roe v. Wade decision in 1973, as courts interpreted it to be repealed and unenforceable.

But in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe’s constitutional right to an abortion on Friday, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) said the 1925 ban was back in effect, and prosecutors could choose to immediately pursue criminal charges against abortion providers

“Although these statutes were unenforceable while Roe was on the books, they are still Texas law. Under these pre-Roe statutes, abortion providers could be criminally liable for providing abortions starting today,” Paxton said in an earlier statement. 

Prior to Friday’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, abortion was available in Texas up to six weeks’ gestation. Since then, all abortions in the state have ceased. The injunction will allow abortion up to six weeks of pregnancy to resume at some clinics.

“This decision will allow abortion services to resume at many clinics across the state, connecting Texans to the essential health care they need. Every hour that abortion is accessible in Texas is a victory,” Marc Hearron, senior counsel at the Center for Reproductive Rights, said in a statement.

The decision does not impact the state’s “trigger” law, which was enacted in 2021. That law isn’t expected to take effect until 30 days after the Court issues its judgment, which is a separate order typically issued about a month after the opinion.

A further hearing on the pre-Roe ban is scheduled for July 12.

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Ukraine, security and renewable energy

We are lifelong friends horrified by Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. As a renewable energy expert and U.S. senator focused on global security, we see many important lessons to learn from this tragedy. 

The war in Ukraine has highlighted the way that national security, economic growth, and climate change are closely linked. It has driven up energy prices worldwide, slowed growth, created a food and energy crisis in the developing world, and spiked carbon emissions as Europe relies more on coal to wean itself away from Russian gas. How we respond to Russia’s unprovoked attack will shape our foreign relations, national security, and energy policies for decades to come. 

In the short term, we need to do everything possible to cut the lifeline keeping Vladimir Putin’s war effort afloat. We have to slash the revenue Russia gains by selling oil, gas and coal. We support the U.S. ban on Russian oil and gas imports and are gratified that other countries are also eliminating or reducing such imports. Now we need to take smart steps at home, including reining in excess oil profits and tackling short-term fuel supply challenges in order to address the high gas prices burdening Americans. These will follow up on steps the Biden administration has already taken, like opening up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and advocating for a gas tax holiday. 

In the medium term, we can use American energy exports to help backstop nations as they transition away from reliance on Russian energy. We have the capacity to do this for a period of time without putting additional upward price pressure on American consumers. 

But we should also be focused on the long term. This can be tough for policy-makers accustomed to thinking by election cycles. The stranglehold that Putin has over other countries’ energy is one more reason that America needs to become energy independent by dramatically boosting clean energy instead of fossil fuels. Let’s free the world’s democracies from ever being under the thumb of a petro- dictator. 

Energy dependence is not just about the consumption of fossil fuels, but also about a 20th-century system of electricity that requires long, vulnerable supply chains for fuel and centralized control and distribution. During the first week of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces targeted the Ukrainian power grid, capturing Europe’s largest nuclear power plant and attempting to disrupt the Ukrainian grid by hacking the computers that control electricity generation and distribution. 

Attacks on electricity generation and transmission have become common in other conflicts, like the Syrian war. A 2021 report commissioned by the European Union found that during the war, Russian and Syrian forces destroyed three central generation facilities, totaling 20 percent of Syria’s capacity, and that numerous attacks on the nation’s transmission lines and gas pipelines further disrupted energy supply, imposing mass hardships on the people and the economy. 

Centralized utility systems around the world are also particularly vulnerable to corruption. Studies by the UN, the World Bank, and Transparency International show widespread abuse by those operating such systems, often leading to poor operation, shoddy environmental protection, and resources siphoned off for officials and their friends instead of invested to help serve the public’s energy needs. 

Our fossil fuel-dependent energy grid in the U.S. is vulnerable too, not only to attacks by hackers and adversaries but also to severe climate events like the consecutive winter storms that knocked out the Texas energy grid in 2021. Climate change is increasing the pace of such extreme weather events, and we must prepare to mitigate the impact of these shocks on our highly-centralized energy system. 

By contrast, renewable energy such as wind and solar can be distributed at smaller scale, supplying electricity close to communities and towns that need it. Renewable energy generation facilities can be built in almost every region of the world and—when combined with battery storage—can create micro- systems less vulnerable to physical or cyber-attacks and natural disasters. Decentralization offers more control to local communities and businesses. Distributed systems provide resilience from the impacts of war, natural disasters, and corruption. They are good for the earth, the economy, and people’s pocketbooks. 

Financial advisors tell us to “diversify your portfolio.” America would be wise to diversify away from an energy system dominated by centralized generation and distribution to a more local and distributed system. 

Congress has an opportunity now as it considers a budget reconciliation bill that, together with the recent infrastructure bill, can make historic investments in clean energy research and development, build unprecedented and long-awaited capacity for efficient transmission and electric vehicles, and create tax incentives to accelerate our transition to low and no carbon energy. 

Virginia is a good example of a state embracing this transition. Less than a decade after being known as “the darkest state” among solar experts for its restrictive policies, Virginia is now 5th in the nation in solar capacity. The Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project is slated to come online in 2026, providing 30 gigawatts of wind power by 2030. The Bath County Pumped Storage Station is one of the largest hydroelectric storage power stations in the world. Virginia has embraced a legally binding path to 100 percent renewable energy by 2050. With great research universities and private sector innovators, there is no reason we cannot succeed. 

Pro-democracy forces and pro-sustainability advocates are unified now. We must deny Putin’s murderous conquest and build a new economy free of the grip of petro-dictators. The U.S. can lead by example at home and serve as a model of leadership in birthing a new era of clean energy and the security it creates. 

Scott Brown is a long-time renewable energy entrepreneur and co-chair of Mercy Corps. Tim Kaine is a U.S. Senator from Virginia. 

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Pentagon watchdog to evaluate US intelligence sharing in support of Ukraine

The Pentagon’s watchdog arm has announced it will look into the extent to which the Defense Department shares intelligence with European partners in support of Ukraine in its war with Russia. 

The goal of the evaluation is to determine the degree to which the U.S. military “developed, planned, and executed cross-domain intelligence sharing” with its European partners, according to a Monday memo from the DOD Inspector General. 

The Biden administration has been open that they are sharing battlefield intelligence with the Ukrainians in its now four-month war with Russia, but U.S. officials have stressed that Kyiv is responsible for deciding what it targets and when.   

To share such information, the White House in early March modified existing guidance for the Pentagon and U.S. spy agencies on sending data to the Ukrainian government, pushing aside bureaucratic roadblocks to intelligence sharing, The Wall Street Journal reported at the time. 

The watchdog will now look at such U.S. efforts, particularly at U.S. European Command (Eucom) headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany, at Special Operations Command headquarters in Tampa, Fla., the Eucom Joint Analysis Center, and other locations, to begin this month. 

The DOD IG is also scrutinizing the Pentagon’s plans to resupply its stockpiles of weapons and equipment – an evaluation announced last week as the U.S. military continues to transfer lethal aid to Ukraine. 

In a separate undertaking, the watchdog is also looking at how the DOD tracks the use of funds to support Kyiv’s fight. 

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Alan Simpson says Cheney 'not after Trump or hating Trump'

Former Sen Alan Simpson (R-Wyo.), who appeared in a new campaign ad for Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) released Tuesday, said that Cheney is “not after Trump or hating Trump.”

The former Wyoming senator, who made those remarks to NBC News in an interview, argued “she is stating what is obvious to many Americans: That this is a wrecking ball of democracy.”

Simpson – well-known within Wyoming after serving in the upper chamber for 18 years, including as the assistant Republican leader – also criticized former President Trump and told the network he would not be voting again for the former president, adding “that’s for goddamn sure.”

“This guy is so full of himself that he would overturn every kind of rule of law or Constitutional process because of his own ego, which is twisted,” Simpson told NBC News, calling Trump a “spoiled brat.” 

Trump has targeted Cheney, the vice chair of the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot, for her vocal criticism of him, her participation on the House panel and her vote to impeach him following the attack at the Capitol.

The hearings, the latest of which will take place on Tuesday, has painted a picture of how Trump and his allies have sought to pressure officials to overturn the 2020 election results. The former president has frequently criticized the evidence and testimony provided by those hearings on his Truth Social platform.

Cheney faces Trump-backed challenger Harriet Hageman in the Wyoming Republican primary, and her race is seen as a test of how much influence Trump will have over the primary. 

But not all Republicans are sticking with Trump after the attack, including Simpson, who dubbed the former president’s remarks of “Stop the Steal” as “Stop the Squeal” in his interview to NBC News and said Trump was “at the root” of a “Machiavellian distortion of whatever this country stands for.”

Simpson also appeared in a campaign ad for Cheney, in which he urged Wisconsin voters to “Join me in voting for Liz Cheney on August 16th.”

The Hill has reached out to a Trump spokesperson for comment. 

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Jan. 6 documentarian: Eric Trump felt potential of post-election violence was 'fair game'

A documentarian who conducted extensive interviews with former President Trump and his family following the 2020 election said Eric Trump was unconcerned about potential violence from Trump supporters reacting to false claims of mass election fraud.

Filmmaker Alex Holder, who spoke with the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 atttack on the Capitol on Thursday, told British newspaper The Independent in an interview published Monday that he had a foreboding feeling about the chance for violence when filming the documentary.

“When I asked Eric about the potential danger of sort of rhetoric and the sort of the belligerence, he felt that it was … fair game in that it … was sort of the equivalent on the other side of the political discourse, or he felt that it was the right thing to do … because the election was stolen,” he told the outlet.

But Holder told the British newspaper that he expected violence.

“The idea of violence, to me, seemed likely because of the fact that when you tell 75 million people that their vote didn’t count, and the person that’s telling you that is not just the guy you voted for, but also the incumbent President of the United States, the chance of violence was always there,” Holder told The Independent.

The Hill has reached out to the Trump Organization for comment.

The documentary’s existence has been the latest development for the House committee investigating Jan. 6 as it continues conducting public hearings. 

The committee on Monday suddenly announced a hearing for Tuesday afternoon, and the panel is expected to call as a witness Cassidy Hutchinson, a special assistant to Mark Meadows, Trump’s chief of staff.

Holder has turned over footage to the House committee he captured as the riot was unfolding at the Capitol and his interviews with Trump’s family.

Holder began his work on the documentary in September 2020, also conducting interviews with the former president, former Vice President Pence, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump.

The footage includes a wide range of developments in the final months of Trump’s presidency, including Trump telling Holder he was scared after getting COVID-19 and the moment Pence learned Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) wanted him to invoke the 25th Amendment.

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Most college students unaware of social progress made in US and worldwide

Fewer than half of American college students are aware of social progress made in the U.S. and across the world in terms of literacy, poverty and life expectancy, according to a new report.  

“American colleges and universities play a vital role in educating future political, cultural and business leaders. The goal of our survey is to understand how well we are equipping our future leaders with the knowledge, openness, optimism and agency to aid in continuing society’s progress,” said John Bitzan, Menard Family Director at the Challey Institute at North Dakota State University and co-author of the report. 

The university’s American College Student Freedom, Progress and Flourishing Survey found that based on what they have learned in school, 45 percent of U.S. college students believe the world is better off than it was 50 years ago among measures such as literacy, life expectancy and poverty. 

In the past 50 years, extreme poverty has decreased, hunger levels have been falling, life expectancy has gone up by more than ten years, and global literacy has increased. However, these numbers took a hit in the pandemic. 

While data from the World Health Organization shows life expectancy worldwide increasing by six years between 2000 and 2019 to 73.4 years, the pandemic took a toll on this progress. The life expectancy in the U.S. fell by a year and a half in 2020, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  

The pandemic has also impacted global poverty rates, which are determined by the number of people living on less than $1.90 per day. Figures from the World Bank Group suggest that between 75 million and 95 million more people will be living in poverty in 2022 due to COVID-19’s lingering effects. Prior to the pandemic the global poverty rate declined for 25 years. 

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There is a political difference in views of social progress. Among conservative students polled, 50 percent said they believe that people are better off than five decades before. This is compared with 45 percent of liberal and liberal leaning students who said the same. 

“The findings suggest many students are not being equipped with what we might call a progress-mindset. I have collected a lot of data showing young Americans are not optimistic about the future, but it still surprises me that so many young people, particularly students with access to a college education, do not feel hopeful and inspired, said the study’s co-author Clay Routledge. 

Yet only around a quarter of college students collectively feel optimistic about the future of the world and about half are optimistic about their own futures, the survey shows. 

The University’s Challey Institute for Global Innovation and Growth, in collaboration with College Pulse, measured the responses of 2,000 undergraduate students at 130 colleges across all 50 states. 

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Russia bans Jill Biden, daughter from entering country

Russia on Tuesday announced additional sanctions against 25 Americans that bars them from entering the country, targeting first lady Jill Biden and her daughter, among others.

The sanctions are aimed at individuals accused of “shaping the Russiaphobic” policies of the United States, according to the Russian foreign ministry. In addition to the Bidens, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) were also listed.

The White House, asked about the sanctions Tuesday while President Biden was en route to a NATO summit in Spain, called Russia’s action “cynical.”

“I have no reaction to that other than it just goes to show you that the Russian capacity for these kinds of cynical moves is basically bottomless, so it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise to any of us that they would do something like this,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters aboard Air Force One.

The Russia sanctions come in response to a slew of U.S. penalties imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

The U.S. and its allies have targeted various Russian economic sectors and Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin and his closest allies. At a Group of Seven (G-7) summit this weekend, the coalition imposed sanctions on Russian gold to further squeeze Moscow.

Russia has previously sanctioned President Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, CIA Director William Burns, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Biden’s son, Hunter Biden.

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