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House Speaker vote: McCarthy, Roy announce progress toward deal on Day 4 of stalemate

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said on a GOP conference call Thursday morning he has made progress on negotiations with Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and others who have not been supporting him for Speaker.

But the tentative deal is not finalized with all of the holdouts, and McCarthy stressed that the deal was still tentative.

The House is set to reconvene at noon for its fourth day without a Speaker and try for the 12th time to elect one.

Follow along below for live updates from The Hill’s reporters:

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Jobs report shows signs of a cooling economy — as well as its resiliency

The U.S. capped off 2022 with another month of strong job growth and wage gains, according to federal data released Friday, a sign that the U.S economy and inflation could be harder to tame than expected.

The economy added 223,000 jobs in December and brought the unemployment rate down to 3.5 percent, back down to its pre-pandemic level in February 2020, the Labor Department reported Friday. Wage growth also stayed brisk as earnings rose 0.3 percent in November and 4.6 percent over the past 12 months.

This developing report will be updated.

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The Hill's Morning Report — Speaker deal slowly coming together

Editor’s note: The Hill’s Morning Report is our daily newsletter that dives deep into Washington’s agenda. To subscribe, click here or fill out the box below.

The House heads into a fourth day in search of a Speaker after Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy of California on Thursday lost a historic 11th ballot as some 20 hard-line conservatives continued to block his path. 

McCarthy and his allies offered new concessions to the Republicans who have effectively deadlocked the chamber. Supporters and defectors spent hours huddled in the Capitol trying to finalize a deal that would include key rules changes to secure their support. Critics, including some moderate Republicans, worried such a pact could weaken the role of the Speaker and render the House ungovernable.

“No,” McCarthy said when asked if he thinks he undercuts the Speaker’s sway with changes he’s accepted.  

“It’s not that one side is going to get more than another,” McCarthy continued while taking questions from reporters about whether concessions he’s made to conservative Republicans complicate support he’s counting on from more moderate GOP colleagues. “The entire conference is going to have to learn to work together” with a five-seat majority, he added. “It’s better to go through this process right now.”

“I’m not putting any timeline on it — I just think we’ve got some progress going on,” McCarthy told reporters Thursday when asked how long it would take to finalize the deal. “We got members talking, I think we’ve got a little movement and we’ll see.”

Conservatives say they still need to study evolving details, some placed in writing, but the overall discussions were interpreted as forward momentum for McCarthy after three painfully humiliating days. He has yet to turn any of his opponents into supporters during ballot votes that began on Tuesday. 

It’s unclear whether McCarthy’s concessions could cost him votes within his conference; he consistently remains more than a dozen votes short. McCarthy needs to secure the support of enough of the 20 holdouts without alienating his base, which started out on Tuesday with a count of 203 (The Hill, Roll Call and Politico).

“It’s [House] changes that we wanted,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), one of the 20 Republicans consistently voting against McCarthy, said of the offers coming from the McCarthy camp. “Now, we got a lot more we got to get to. But this round one, it’s on paper, which is a good thing.”

Some GOP holdouts have said flatly there is nothing McCarthy could do or offer that would get their backing. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) responded “no” on Wednesday when asked that question.

▪ Vox: What McCarthy’s concessions to right-wingers would mean for a functioning Congress.

▪ Politico: Dems bask in the speaker schadenfreude.

▪ The Washington Post: The anti-McCarthy block in the House has long been anti-McCarthy.

When the House reconvenes at noon, it will place a new footnote in its history books as lawmakers head toward a 12th ballot, marking more rounds of voting than any Speaker election since the Civil War (CBS News).

Some lawmakers are fuming about their inability to get to work. The Speaker limbo means they cannot get the clearances to be briefed on national security matters, write The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch and Aris Folley. Incoming chairs for the House intelligence, Armed Services, and Foreign Affairs committees complained the delay hobbles their ambitions to quickly begin investigations of the administration — a top priority for the House GOP.

“There is no oversight of the White House, State Department, Department of Defense, or the intelligence community. We cannot let personal politics place the safety and security of the United States at risk,” GOP Reps. Michael Turner (Ohio), Mike Rogers (Ala.) and Michael McCaul (Texas) said in a statement.

The State Department on Thursday said the lack of a Speaker is likely to compound concerns on Capitol Hill over the ability of lawmakers to carry out their duties related to national security and foreign policy (The Hill). And if no Speaker is elected and no rules package is adopted by Jan. 13, it could impact the pay of House committee staffers (Politico).

CNBC: Here’s how the Speaker debacle is paralyzing Congress.

Heading into the Speaker election, Americans said they were divided about whether it should be McCarthy, according to a Rasmussen poll of likely voters conducted early this week. About 35 percent thought he should get the job while 41 percent said Republicans should not elect the California lawmaker.

Now, heading into the fourth day of votes, lawmakers will be on the floor during the second anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol. On that violent day, a mob tried to halt the work of Congress. Two years later, a group of 20 conservative Republicans succeeded in freezing official House business for days. 

Related Articles

▪ The New Republic: Who is Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.)? More on McCarthy defectors’ newest nominee for House Speaker.

▪ The Hill’s Memo by Niall Stanage: Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) gets his moment. 

▪ CNN: Cheryl Johnson, the House clerk presiding during the Speaker vote, is no stranger to turbulent times in the chamber.

▪ The New York Times ballot and House vote tracker is HERE.

▪ New York magazine: A House without rules makes for C-SPAN gone wild.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ ADMINISTRATION

President Biden will make his first visit to the U.S.-Mexico border on Sunday, traveling to El Paso, Texas, following two years of political pressure to demonstrate his focus on immigration problems and border enforcement.

The president announced on Thursday that his administration will use a Trump-era policy it once decried, known as Title 42, currently under Supreme Court review, to block more Nicaraguan, Cuban and Haitian migrants at U.S. borders, sending them back into Mexico while admitting 30,000 asylum-seekers from those countries to live and work in the United States for two years (NBC News).

“Today, my administration is taking several steps to stiffen enforcement for those who try to come without a legal right to stay,” Biden said at the White House ahead of a hemispheric summit in Mexico City next week. It was the most assertive administration policy effort – separate from its periodic rhetorical warnings – intended to discourage migrants from entering the United States (The New York Times). 

The Los Angeles Times: Biden announces major border strategy shift, expands Trump policy.

The president’s remarks sparked criticism from human rights groups at a time when pro-immigration advocates say they’re skeptical that Congress will tackle legislative reforms and while a conservative majority of justices on the Supreme Court temporarily approved the continuation of expedited expulsion of asylum-seekers from the United States through Mexico.

Biden said his approach was different from Trump’s and said he would announce new funding to help communities deal with the effects of the migrant surge.

“I know that migration is putting a real strain on the borders and border communities,” the president said, adding that “our problems at the border didn’t arise overnight, and they are not going to be solved overnight. It’s a difficult problem.”

Many Republicans who hold the House majority argue that migrants bring drugs, weapons and criminal activity into the U.S. and tap public resources while they await immigration and asylum court hearings.

The president begins the new year with job approval of 43.4 percent, his highest approval in a year, according to an aggregation of polls published on Thursday by FiveThirtyEight. Expected within weeks to announce a bid for reelection, Biden is mapping out political and policy appeals to voters.

On Friday, the president will mark the second anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, appealing to Americans to oppose attacks on democracy and referencing his view that his election represented a “battle for the soul of the nation” (The Hill).

Separately, Jan. 6 is a reminder of the just-completed House select committee investigation (The Hill) and ongoing federal prosecutions and criminal and civil investigations involving the accused Jan. 6 attackers and suspected instigators (The Hill).

The Justice Department tracks prosecutions of more than 950 people arrested from all 50 states and accused of crimes tied to the Capitol attacks.

More than 295 defendants have been charged with corruptly obstructing, influencing or impeding an official proceeding or attempting to do so, the department reported on Wednesday. Approximately 50 defendants have been charged with conspiracy, including charges of seditious conspiracy. About 192 federal defendants have received prison sentences.

Roll Call: In a Supreme Court filing, the administration makes its case for the legality of Biden’s student debt forgiveness program, now challenged in court.  

➤ POLITICS

A potential wave of retirements in key battleground and Republican-leaning states are complicating Senate Democrats’ hope of keeping their majority in 2024, writes The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. Thursday’s announcement that Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), a member of the Democratic leadership, won’t run for reelection is a sign of the challenges facing Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who now has to convince Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Jon Tester (Mont.), as well as newly-Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.), to run for reelection in states that Republicans have a good chance of winning.

Schumer must also worry about Wisconsin, where Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) hasn’t yet revealed her 2024 plans. The majority leader scored a win when Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) announced his plans to run for another term, but other Democrats may be eyeing the exits, given their party’s loss of the House — and the prospect of legislative gridlock for the foreseeable future.  

Stabenow’s retirement in Michigan is creating a pickup opportunity in 2024 for Republicans (The Hill). Democratic Reps. Debbie Dingell and Elissa Slotkin on Thursday were reported to be considering runs for the seat in 2024. Several other Michigan House members could also take a look at it, including Reps. Dan Kildee and Haley Stevens, Politico reports. 

Meanwhile, Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), whose term is up in 2024, on Thursday announced a prostate cancer diagnosis. He said he expects to have surgery “soon” (The Hill).

On the other side of the aisle, former President Trump’s political clout took another hit this week as lawmakers opposed to McCarthy’s Speakership bid ignored his calls to back the California Republican, writes The Hill’s Julia Manchester. It’s just the latest sign that Trump’s once-iron grip on his party is weakening, a reality that raises questions about his 2024 presidential bid while making rivals more confident in defeating him in a primary. 

▪ The New York Times: In House Speaker fight, Trump struggles to play kingmaker.

▪ Politico: Trump’s worst fear is coming true: he’s being ignored.

The list of potential GOP rivals for Trump is growing, as New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is leaving the door open to a 2024 presidential run, acknowledging that he’s having conversations about a bid for the White House.

“It’s incredibly flattering,” Sununu said in a Fox News interview of the speculation that he could mount a presidential bid. “A lot of folks are coming to me, a lot of folks want me to run. It’s definitely conversations that we’re having, of course.”

Sununu, who was reelected to a fourth term in the New Hampshire governor’s mansion last year after passing on a bid for the U.S. Senate, has repeatedly been mentioned as a possible candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, especially by critics of Trump (The Hill).

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL

Fighting continued unabated in Ukraine today after Kiyv on Thursday rejected an announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin of a 36-hour cease-fire to mark Orthodox Christmas, saying there will be no truce until Moscow removes its invading forces from occupied land (Reuters).

The Kremlin said Putin had ordered his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, to introduce a temporary cease-fire along the entire line of contact in Ukraine from midday today to midnight on Saturday to mark the holiday. Many Orthodox Christians, including those in Russia and Ukraine, traditionally celebrate Christmas on Jan. 6 and 7, according to the Julian calendar. Since the war started, however, some Ukrainians have chosen to celebrate Christmas in December, according to the Gregorian calendar. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the cease-fire announcement, saying the Kremlin had only made the announcement to halt Kyiv’s advances in the eastern Donbas region.

“They now want to use Christmas as a cover, albeit briefly, to stop the advances of our boys in Donbas and bring equipment, ammunitions and mobilized troops closer to our positions,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address (The Guardian and The Hill).

Biden said Thursday that Putin’s call for a cease-fire is an effort to “find some oxygen,” dismissing that the Kremlin is serious about finding an off-ramp for its assault against Ukraine (The Hill).

▪ Newsweek: Rumors of Putin’s ill-health persist amid intelligence updates.

▪ The New York Times: “Fear still remains”: Ukraine finds sexual crimes where Russian troops ruled.

The U.S. and Germany, meanwhile, will supply Ukraine with additional fighting vehicles, a decision that could mean Kyiv will get more powerful Western tanks. The deal, which was cemented after a Wednesday conversation between Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, means Washington will send the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, and Berlin intends to provide Ukraine with Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles, according to a Thursday White House announcement (The Hill).

The Biden administration is expected to announce a new round of military assistance today that will include equipment the U.S. has not previously provided and total nearly $3 billion (NBC News).

▪ The Washington Post: What is the Temple Mount in Israel, and why did National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s visit stoke tension?

▪ Reuters: Mexico arrested accused drug cartel leader Ovidio Guzman, son of jailed “El Chapo.”

OPINION

■ GOP House Speaker boondoggle: A decade in the making, by B.J. Rudell, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/3QfGyOA

■ Biden needs allies to keep China and Russia in check. Here’s how to do it, by Sebastian Mallaby, contributing columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3WR5puo

■ Biden’s blue collar bet, analysis by Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic. https://bit.ly/3Z8mJwJ

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 The Hill: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.

The House will meet at noon for legislative business on the fourth day of the 118th Congress.

The Senate will hold a pro forma session at 1:05 p.m.

The president will mark the two-year anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol during an East Room event. Biden will host Vice President Harris for lunch in the White House private dining room. Biden will travel to Wilmington, Del., for the weekend.

The vice president at 11 a.m. will ceremonially swear in Bijan Sabet as U.S. ambassador to the Czech Republic.  She will join Biden for lunch at 12:45 p.m. The vice president and second gentleman Doug Emhoff at 2 p.m. will attend the East Room event recalling the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attacks.

Economic indicator: The Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 a.m. will report on U.S. employment in December, which is data scrutinized at the Federal Reserve.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 12:45 p.m.

ELSEWHERE

➤ STATE WATCH

Damaging winds and heavy rains from a powerful “atmospheric river” pounded California Thursday, knocking out power to tens of thousands of residents, causing flash flooding and contributing to the deaths of at least two people, including a child whose home was hit by a falling tree.

As the storm barreled into the state on Wednesday, officials ordered evacuations in a high-risk coastal area where mudslides killed 23 people in 2018. Authorities warned residents to hunker down. The storm marks the latest in a rapid series of atmospheric rivers — long plumes of moisture stretching far over the Pacific — to hit California. This one was a “Pineapple Express” that originated near Hawaii and was pulled toward the west coast by a rotating area of rapidly falling air pressure known as a “bomb cyclone” (The Guardian).

The New York Times: California could see rain and high winds for days. Here is a day-by-day look at what to expect.

Abortion: In South Carolina, the state Supreme Court on Thursday struck down the state’s ban on abortion six weeks into a pregnancy, ruling the restriction violates the state constitution’s right to privacy. The 3-2 ruling comes nearly two years after Republican Gov. Henry McMaster signed the measure into law. The court’s voiding of the so-called “heartbeat” bill means South Carolina’s previous ban on abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy will remain in place (CNN).

“The state unquestionably has the authority to limit the right of privacy that protects women from state interference with her decision, but any such limitation must be reasonable and it must be meaningful in that the time frames imposed must afford a woman sufficient time to determine she is pregnant and to take reasonable steps to terminate that pregnancy,” Justice Kaye Hearn wrote in the majority opinion.

Risky work: Meanwhile, firefighters who work for federal agencies and respond to emergencies on public lands or military installations will for the first time qualify for medical benefits when they get diagnosed with cancer, writes The Hill’s Brad Dress. A provision to award firefighters presumptive benefits when stricken with cancer was quietly included in the National Defense Authorization Act passed by Congress last year. 

Federal firefighters are prone to exposure to cancer-causing PFAS, known as “forever chemicals,” that have been linked to military bases. Up to 100 firefighters file a cancer-related claim annually, but 80 percent of those claims are denied. The International Association of Fire Fighters General President Edward Kelly called the NDAA provision a “game-changer.” 

Energy: Solar power could be a useful tool to help curb climate change while creating a more sustainable power system, writes The Hill’s Amy Thompson, but the amount of power generated is often limited due to things such as cloud cover. For decades, researchers have floated the notion of putting solar panels in space to boost power here on Earth; however, that dream has been plagued by technological limitations as well as high launch costs. Thanks to a donation and a team of engineers at Caltech, a solar-powered prototype launched into space this week as part of a mission to evaluate the possibility of space-based solar power. 

➤ BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Southwest Airlines is slated to undergo another round of federal scrutiny after the airline experienced a holiday meltdown that caused the cancellation of over 70 percent of its flights in the days after Christmas. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), chairwoman of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, announced Wednesday night that the panel will hold hearings on Southwest’s “massive operational and customer service failures” as a part of discussions concerning the reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration. The announcement adds another layer of scrutiny to a Transportation Department probe promised during the holiday flight chaos (Roll Call).

“Southwest’s customers are rightfully dissatisfied and deserve better,” Cantwell said in a statement. “These consumers need refunds and reimbursements for their expenses.”

▪ NBC News: Southwest pilots union writes scathing letter to airline executives after holiday travel fiasco.

▪ The Washington Post: Frustrated Southwest passengers are still waiting for bags.

▪ CNN: Southwest giving passengers affected by meltdown 25,000 frequent flier points.

The surge in COVID-19 cases in China is impacting the completion of manufacturing orders, according to CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data. Logistics managers are warning clients that factories are unable to complete orders because of the spike in infections — even as U.S. manufacturing orders from China are already down 40 percent due to an unrelenting demand collapse.

➤ HEALTH & PANDEMIC

Two major pharmacy chains — CVS and Walgreens — will apply to sell abortion pills under a new Food and Drug Administration regulation that will allow the medication to be offered by retail pharmacies for the first time. The companies said they planned to seek certification to sell the pill, mifepristone, the first pill used in the two-drug medication abortion regimen. Patients will still need a prescription for the drug, but the new federal action could significantly expand access to medication abortion because it allows any pharmacy that agrees to accept those prescriptions and abide by certain other criteria to dispense the pills in its stores and by mail order (The New York Times).

A new COVID-19 variant that was first detected last year has quickly become the dominant strain in the US — and picked up the creepy “kraken variant” moniker along the way. The World Health Organization’s senior epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove said XBB.1.5 is the most transmissible omicron sub-variant that has been detected so far. It spreads rapidly because of the mutations it contains, allowing it to adhere to cells and replicate easily.

XBB and XBB.1.5 were estimated to account for 44.1 percent of COVID-19 cases in the country in the week of Dec. 31, up from 25.9 percent in the previous week, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (Bloomberg News and Reuters).

CNBC: Here’s what people with long COVID-19 need to know about navigating health insurance.

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,096,147. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,731 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

THE CLOSER

And finally … 👏👏👏 Congratulations to the winners of this week’s Morning Report Quiz! 

While Republicans in Congress are embroiled in a messy Speaker sweepstakes, we explored some recent House and Senate trivia to see if readers were paying attention.

They were. Here we present the masterful puzzlers (and Googlers) who went 4/4: Patrick Kavanagh, Paul Harris, Amanda Fisher, Cheryl Geyerman, Kathleen Kovalik, Cliff Grulke, Harry Strulovici, Terry Pflaumer, Pam Manges, Gretchen O’Brien, Candi Cee, Jonathan Berck, Richard Baznik, Luther Berg, Ken Stevens, Robert Bradley, Randall S. Patrick, JA Ramos, Steve James and Lou Tisler.  

They knew that Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.), whose parents were born in Brazil, attracted recent attention in that country because Brazilian law enforcement officials said they will reinstate fraud charges against Santos related to stolen checks in 2008.

Some metal detectors outside the House floor disappeared this week under the new Republican majority, journalists reported.

Rep.-elect Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), 25, the youngest House member, this week told ABC News he was struggling to rent an apartment in Washington, D.C., before starting his new job because rental housing is expensive in the nation’s capital, his credit rating is poor and he was turned down after applying for some apartments. The correct answer was “all of the above.” 

The Congressional Black Caucus in the 118th Congress is the largest in history with 58 members, a trend its members celebrated this week, along with the ascent of 52-year-old Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) as a nominee to be Speaker.  

Stay Engaged

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Democrats worry over potential of retirements in Senate

Senate Democrats’ hopes of keeping their majority after the next election is complicated by a potential wave of retirements in key battleground and Republican-leaning states.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), a member of the Democratic leadership, announced on Thursday that she won’t run again, and all eyes are on Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who haven’t announced their plans.

Their two seats in reliably Republican presidential states would be particularly difficult to hold on to for Democrats.

“This shapes up to be a very difficult cycle for Democrats anyway and this is just another blow to the chances of keeping the Senate when you lose an incumbent,” Steve Jarding, a Democratic strategist and former advisor to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said of Stabenow’s plan to retire.  

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.), who left the Democratic Party to become an Independent, also has not announced her plans. Neither has Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), though she is widely expected to run for re-election. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is running for reelection, which could help Democrats in that race.

All three represent states where Republicans will like their chances in 2024.

Overall, Senate Democrats need to defend 23 seats in 2024, compared to just 10 for Republicans. All of the GOP incumbents are running in reliably Republican states.  

 Mike Berg, the director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, says Republicans will “aggressively target” the open Michigan Senate seat, which will force Democrats to play defense in an expensive state.  

“Senate Democrats don’t even have a campaign chair yet and they are already dealing with a major retirement,” Berg said, referring to the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee leadership. “We are going to aggressively target this seat in 2024. This could be the first of many Senate Democrats who decide to retire rather than lose.”

Stabenow is 72 years old but her decision to retire surprised strategists because she is one of Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) closest allies in the Senate Democratic conference and chairs the powerful Agriculture Committee, which is a big selling point in Michigan.

 “It certainly will be competitive,” Matt Grossman, a professor of political science at Michigan State University, said of the race in Michigan. “We’re a swing state and an open Senate race inherently will be competitive in a swing state.” 

He noted that Stabenow beat Republican candidate John James by just more than 6 percentage points in 2018, a year that was a good one for Democrats generally.  

James ran a much closer race in 2020 against Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who won 49.9 percent to 48.2 percent.  

Howard Edelson, a Democratic strategist with a long history in Michigan politics, said there are a wide array of strong Democrats who could run for Stabenow’s seat, including Whitmer, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan.  

Other names being floated as possible candidates include Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow.  

In Wisconsin, Republicans are likely to go after Baldwin after Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) re-election victory in November.

Schumer said last month that he will do everything he can to convince Democratic incumbents to run for re-election, which was a big reason why Democrats kept control of the Senate majority despite predictions in 2021 and early 2022 of a Republican midterm election wave.  

“They’re great candidates and we’ll do everything we can to help them,” he said, praising Manchin and Sinema as “great members of our caucus” and “tremendous contributors” even though they “don’t always agree with us on certain issues.”  

The leader noted that “traditionally Democrats do better in a presidential year than a non-presidential year” because Democratic voters, especially young voters, tend to turn out in greater numbers in presidential years.  

But he acknowledged the serious challenges ahead. 

“We have a large number who are up” including “two who are in Trump-, Republican-leaning states,” he said referring to Tester and Manchin.  

Matt House, a Democratic strategist, said Schumer’s best argument for convincing Manchin, Tester and Sinema to run again is to point to the impressive list of legislative accomplishments they racked up in the last Congress.  

He said that is “all the Democratic leaders in the Senate can do from a legislative standpoint to convince them it’s an attractive job and an important role to play.” 

“There are a lot of other forces at play. What’s happening on the Republican side in each of those states, what’s happening at the presidential level, what’s the overall atmospherics of the generic ballot is going to influence their thinking,” he added.  

Senate Republicans say the new chairman of the NRSC, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), will make an all-out push to flip Tester’s seat and is well positioned to do so given his knowledge of his home state’s politics. 

Tester is on the fence about running again but expressed confidence he could win a fourth term in a state that Trump won by 16 points in 2020.  

He said he needs “to sit down and visit like we have other time” with his family, friends and supporters about running again.  

“I’m getting older, we need to talk about it,” he said. 

Tester said “you can look at the last election and say Jeez it’s trending red” but he said that local Democrats could have made some better decisions to run more competitively in Montana.

“The issues are there. It’s putting in the shoe leather,” he said. “Trust me, I’ve had tough elections before. If I run, this is going to be a tough election again. I have no doubt I can win it …. The truth is I have a good record to run on.”  

Democratic strategists say the party has an outside chance of winning the Montana Senate seat if Tester, who is 66 years old, retires but virtually no shot of keeping Manchin’s seat in West Virginia if he decides not to run for a fourth term.  

Manchin told The Hill last year that he’s still weighing what to do in 2024 but doesn’t plan to make anyone announcement anytime soon.  

Manchin said he’s expecting “rigorous” competition if he runs again, and said he’s “going to put myself in a position to help my state and my country the best I possibly can.”  

Sinema could face a tough three-way race in the general election after announcing her decision to leave the Democratic Party and register as an independent.  

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is moving aggressively to position himself for the Democratic Senate nomination. He announced Thursday that he is hiring two fundraising strategists who played key roles on Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D-Ariz.) successful 2022 re-election campaign.  

Source: TEST FEED1

The Memo: Chip Roy seizes his moment

The chaotic failure of House Republicans to elect a Speaker — so far — has had a silver lining for at least one member. 

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a leading opponent of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), has seized the national stage.

In doing so, he has elicited jeers as well as cheers. Roy is among the most hardline of conservatives, with a host of deeply controversial positions.

Yet McCarthy allies see Roy as more inclined toward sincere, good-faith negotiations than other dissenters.

And the broader public has been introduced to an unusual voice, via his speeches from the House floor and his frequent media interviews.

On Wednesday, for example, Roy sparked a rare, broad ovation in the chamber when he nominated Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) to take the gavel. Roy noted, “for the first time in history, there have been two Black Americans placed into nomination for Speaker of the House.”

Within moments, Roy returned to a favorite hobbyhorse — his opposition to U.S. aid packages to Ukraine.

That turn was enough for Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) to argue on Twitter that the Texas conservative was aiding “the Putin-Trump axis of autocrats and kleptocrats” who were, Raskin contended, bringing “chaos to the floor of the people’s House.”

Peculiar political juxtapositions are Roy’s stock-in trade, however.

In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, he pushed for evidence of election fraud from then-President Trump’s allies, seeking “ammo” to make that case in texts to Trump’s Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. 

Later, having determined that no such ammunition was forthcoming — and outraged by the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 — Roy called on the House floor for the rioters to be jailed. 

Unlike many on the farthest right flank of the GOP, he also voted to uphold the results of the election. 

“That vote may well sign my political death warrant, but so be it,” he said. “I swore an oath to uphold the Constitution of the United States and I will not bend its words into contortions for personal political expediency.”

At other times during his congressional tenure, Roy has accused Dr. Anthony Fauci of “crimes against humanity” — yet found a sliver of common ground, with caveats, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). He believes the left-wing New Yorker shares his view that Washington is fundamentally “broken,” even as they disagree radically on the solutions.

This week, while trying to capsize McCarthy’s long quest to be Speaker, Roy has insisted that he bears his Californian colleague “no personal animus.”

In terms of the big picture, Roy tends to put his opposition to the status quo in Washington in terms that even figures from the left might half-endorse. 

While nominating Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) for the Speakership this week, Roy segued into a lament about how, when it comes to spending, “the Defense World and the non-Defense World come together…and the American people are the big losers.”

Even Republicans who don’t agree with Roy or who have become alienated from the modern party, say that the Texas congressman is a very different beast from other foes of McCarthy like Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) or Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.)

“They are not in the same galaxy,” said Rick Tyler, a Republican strategist and Trump critic. “He is a conservative…but he is not going to join the clown show.”

Brendan Steinhauser, a GOP strategist in Roy’s native Texas — and someone who favors a much more centrist course for the party — declares himself “hopelessly biased for Chip,” whom he has known for years.

“We don’t agree on everything,” Steinhauser noted. “But I think he is a true believer and fighting the good fight. I think he is principled even when it causes choppy water for him.”

The vote to uphold the 2020 election is not the only example. Roy single-handedly held up a 2019 bill that would have released massive grant funding to his home state after Hurricane Harvey because the money was not offset — and because he objected to the procedures being used to pass the legislation.

Not everyone finds such stances admirable — or even defensible.

The Republican whom Roy beat in his House primary when first getting elected in 2018, Matt McCall, once told Texas Monthly, “He always burns everybody because he thinks that he’s Thomas Jefferson and he’s going to keep the whole world straight.”

Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Texas, cautioned against taking too generous a view of Roy’s political idiosyncrasies.

“I think of Chip Roy as erratic,” Jillson said. “On occasion, he will be part of the solution and you’ll find him making compelling points. But the other Chip Roy is more often throwing gasoline on the fire.”

Still, more supportive voices contend that there is a common thread to Roy’s politics.

“He has believed for some time — at least as long as he has been a member of the House — that the institution is broken and that the average member is limited to do anything about it because far too much power is held by leaders,” said Matt Mackowiak, the chair of the Travis County Republican Party in Texas.

For now, Roy’s admirers are glad to see him center-stage, even as the week’s events have careened into disorder.

“This is a moment for Chip to shine,” said Steinhauser. “He didn’t design it that way. He stepped into the moment, stepped up to the challenge. And I think people see that.”

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

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Trump’s clout takes hit from Speaker’s fight

President Trump’s political clout has taken another serious hit, as Republicans opposed to Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s Speakership bid ignore his pleas to back the California Republican. 

It’s just the latest sign that Trump’s once-iron grip on his party is weakening, a reality that raises questions about his 2024 presidential bid while giving rivals more confidence they can defeat him in a primary.

Conservative Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) said on the House floor on Wednesday that Trump needed to tell McCarthy to withdraw from the contest, while Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said it was “sad” that the former president supported McCarthy.

On top of that, in an act that could be described as defiance or flattery, Gaetz voted for Trump to be Speaker during the seventh round of voting on Thursday. 

“I think this is a sign of his diminished influence,” said Brian Seitchik, an Arizona-based GOP strategist and Trump campaign alum. “There was a time when Trump would say ‘jump’ and everyone would say ‘how high?’” 

On Thursday, McCarthy lost his ninth bid for Speaker as the group of 20 rogue Republicans voted for another candidate and one Republican voted “present.” 

Trump has taken to his social media platform TruthSocial this week to call on the roughly 20 House Republicans opposed to McCarthy to rally around the GOP leader. He’s also been busy providing some commentary on the closed-door negotiations. 

“Very good things are happening behind the scenes for the Republican Party,” Trump wrote on Wednesday. “Intense but Smart negotiations between GREAT and PATRIOTIC people are ongoing. They all love our Country, and want something to go forward, ASAP. This ‘event’ will end up making the Republican Party STRONGER and more UNITED than ever before.”  

Republican strategists think the fight in the House could hurt their party along with Trump, giving something to seize upon to Democrats and President Biden.

“How do you beat high gas prices and still a sagging economy? You beat it by pointing to the other side and saying you may not like every outcome, you may not even like every policy, and frankly, you may not even like me, but look at those clowns,” one Republican strategist told The Hill. 

The strategist said it’s not the Speaker fight itself that is a disaster for Republicans. It’s what it points to for the future.

Any Speaker elected — McCarthy or someone else — is likely to face challenges uniting the fractious conference.

“It’s not a political patient on a ventilator but it is a symptom that if I were a prescribing political doctor I would be really worried about right now,” the strategist said of the fight on the House floor. 

Some downplay the fact that the Republicans opposed to a Speaker McCarthy ignored Trump. They said it isn’t about Trump, but McCarthy,

“I don’t think it has anything to do with Trump. I think it has everything to do with either a personal issue with McCarthy or an ideological issue,” Seitchik said. 

Still, conservatives say that Trump’s calls for rogue House Republicans to rally around McCarthy are a sign that the former president is misreading the room.

“Republican [voters] have been so betrayed by our leadership that now they just want a scalp, I think, just to send a message that they’re done. They’re done messing around,” said Terry Schilling, president of the conservative American Principles Project. 

“It’s the same spirit and the same reason that Donald Trump was unstoppable in 2016 against a host of some of the best and most qualified Republican candidates for president that we’ve ever had,” he continued. 

Trump has had a series of recent stumbles.

Candidates he backed faltered in the midterms, contributing to a disappointing outcome for the GOP that was blamed in part on Trump — even by Republicans.

A dinner he held with two avowed antisemites caused a national stir, as did remarks by Trump about terminating the Constitution to overturn the 2020 election.

The debacle over the Speakership comes as various 2024 polls show support for the former president appearing to wane as potential presidential hopeful and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) sees his stock rise. 

A USA-Today-Suffolk University poll released last month found that 31 percent of voters said they wanted the former president to run, while 61 percent said they would prefer another GOP candidate who would continue Trump’s policies. The same poll also found that 56 percent of Republicans wanted DeSantis to run while 33 percent said they wanted Trump to run. 

While Trump’s waning influence may give a boost to DeSantis, it also demonstrates how difficult it will be for any candidate to unify the party from the top of the ticket, say some observers. 

“Clearly there’s a leadership vacuum inside the Republican Party,” said Republican strategist Alex Conant. “There’s not a single national Republican who’s demonstrated the ability to unite all the Republican factions.”

And don’t expect the other presidential hopefuls to wade into the Speakership drama like Trump has. 

“There’s very little upside and a whole lot of downside to weighing in on the Speaker’s race, but Donald Trump could not miss an opportunity to be at the center of the action,” Seitchik said. 

Source: TEST FEED1

McCarthy, opponents inch toward deal to end Speakership fight

Rep. Kevin McCarthy and some of his GOP detractors appeared Thursday to be nearing a deal that would bring him closer to the Speakership, even as his most vocal critics vowed that it wouldn’t be enough to grant him the gavel.

The two sides were working furiously behind closed doors to carve out an agreement even as McCarthy lost five more floor votes for the Speakership, with the same band of opponents voting against him. It made 11 straight ballot losses for McCarthy.

“It’s changes that we wanted,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), one of the 20 Republicans consistently voting against McCarthy, said of the offers coming from the McCarthy camp.

“Now, we got a lot more we got to get to,” he cautioned. “But this round one, it’s on paper, which is a good thing.”

McCarthy allies also voiced optimism, saying they felt progress was being made.

But they hadn’t been able to show progress on the floor despite the growing number of concessions. And it was unclear a deal would get McCarthy over the hump.

When asked Wednesday evening if there is anything that McCarthy can do to win her support, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) said: “No.”

Asked the same question on Thursday, Rep.-elect Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) said, “I don’t think so.” Rep.-elect Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) said, “Well see.”

Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Bob Good (R-Va.) appear similarly entrenched in their opposition.  

“You don’t ever have to ask me again if I’m a no,” Good told reporters on Thursday. “I will never vote for Kevin McCarthy.”

The House voted just after 8 p.m. to adjourn until noon Friday — which did represent some progress for McCarthy. He’d been pushing for an adjournment and it was backed by the Republicans supporting and opposing him.

Many of McCarthy’s most intransigent GOP critics didn’t even appear to be involved in Thursday’s negotiations, and it was far from clear he’d win 16 Republicans. 

Four of McCarthy’s most intransigent GOP critics didn’t even appear to be involved in Thursday’s negotiations. But it was far from clear he’d win over the other 16 Republicans who were talking.

Thursday’s spectacle marked an ignominious milestone: The 10th speaker ballot surpassed the nine ballots required to seat a House leader in 1923, making this year’s process the most protracted since the Civil War. And there’s no clear end in sight.

Thursday’s marathon talks took place in the Capitol office of incoming House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.).

The negotiators included Reps. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Emmer, all key defenders of McCarthy, with Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.).

McHenry was one of those signaling optimism.

“We have the right contours than enable us to get Kevin McCarthy having the majority of the vote, and that’s assurances on the structure of how we’re going to deal with each other, how we’re going to enable sound public policy, and the type of public policy that will be front and center for this Congress,” he said.

“It’s the type of assurances that all majorities need to make at some period of time. I wish we’d have made them before, but we’re making them now,” McHenry said. “We’ve had members that have held out in the hopes of getting more conservative policy to the floor, and I think we can get there. This is the most hopeful set of conversations we’ve had in weeks.”

Among the concessions being offered were lowering the threshold for a motion to oust the House Speaker to just one member and increasing the number of hard-line conservatives on key committees.

Norman said the concessions offered by McCarthy include a guaranteed floor vote to establish term limits for all House lawmakers; an open amendment process, providing rank-and-file lawmakers with more power to alter legislation; adoption of the so-called Holman rule, which grants Congress new powers over federal agencies; and a 72-hour rule — requiring three full days for lawmakers to read bills before they hit the floor.

Yet even as those talks took place, some of McCarthy’s detractors appeared to be moving farther from him.

Gaetz on Wednesday excoriated McCarthy for allegedly soliciting a list of desired committee assignments from the group of detractors and then using it around to portray them as negotiating personal favors.

Perhaps no one in McCarthy’s camp thinks Gaetz is a gettable vote. All the same, it was notable that he, Boebert, Biggs, and Good, were not present during much of the extensive talks in Emmer’s office on Thursday. Their absence seemed to allow negotiators more space to cut a deal. 

“We have the right people in the room talking, and that is a very healthy ingredient,” McHenry said. 

The concessions themselves are a risk for McCarthy, though most Republicans supporting him appear ready to swallow those changes for the sake of ending the speaker stalemate. 

Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), the incoming chair of the House Armed Services Committee, blasted the proposal to offer committee seats for Speaker votes.

“That is insane that they presented that, that they wanted to get committee assignments and committee chairmanships without going through the steering committee, as if Kevin McCarthy or any Speaker magically gets to tell members,” he said. “‘Oh, by the way, I’m giving your seat to somebody else who was an aggravation to the conference.’ It just shows how insane they are.”

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and other members have previously signaled that they would not accept lowering the threshold for the motion to vacate the chair, but appear poised to relent if it secures the Speakership for McCarthy.

“I do object to the vacate rules, but would I vote no on the Speakership because of that? I would say no, I would prefer not to do that,” Bacon said on Thursday.

Some McCarthy’s supporters were so optimistic about his chances.

“I think the number that will never vote for Kevin McCarthy is more than four,” Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) said on CNN Thursday morning. That would block McCarthy from the gavel.

Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who previously said that McCarthy should step back and make way for House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) if he can’t make a deal, also expressed doubt about McCarthy moving enough members to win.

“There are still some holdouts and I think the 20, sort of have a blood oath that they will – all move together or none of them will move,” Buck said on CNN. 

He later said that members, including himself, would start looking for another candidate if McCarthy can’t make a deal, and that he will “lose credibility” if a deal does not come to fruition.

The detractors threw a new name into the Speaker mix with votes on nominations on Thursday: Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Olka.), the incoming chair of the conservative Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in the House. 

And while Hern has supported McCarthy on all ballots, he did not dismiss the idea of being a compromise Speaker candidate.

“I’m happy as RSC chair and there’s a lot we are already doing there,” Hern told local Oklahoma outlet The Frontier earlier on Thursday. “If I hear my name, it’s something I’ll have to think and pray about before deciding if it’s a job I’ll run for.”

Al Weaver, Mychael Schell, Aris Folley and Rebecca Beitsch contributed.

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Speaker delay halts national security briefings for lawmakers

The disorder in the House is leaving lawmakers fuming over their inability to stay apprised on national security matters, as it is blocking them from entering classified briefings or meeting with top officials. 

Lawmakers say they can’t even go into a special room known as the sensitive compartmented information facility or SCIF where they discuss top secret information with national security officials.  

Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.) said he was blocked from entering the SCIF by security as he arrived for a meeting with the Joint Chiefs of Staff on “matters in the Indo-Pacific.”  

“I’m informed by House security that technically, I don’t have a clearance. I’m a member of the Intel Committee. I’m on the Armed Services Committee, and I can’t meet in the SCIF to conduct essential business. My point is we have work to do that we can’t do right now,” he said at a press conference alongside other Republicans pleading for a quick resolution to Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) quest for the gavel.  

McCarthy supporters are largely sounding the alarm on the national security issue as they try to pressure opponents to reach a deal on the Speaker fight. McCarthy lost an eighth straight ballot to become Speaker on Thursday afternoon. 

Incoming chairs for the House intelligence, armed services, and foreign affairs committee complained the delay is hindering their oversight of the Biden administration — a top priority for the GOP majority.  

“There is no oversight of the White House, State Department, Department of Defense, or the intelligence community. We cannot let personal politics place the safety and security of the United States at risk,” Reps. Michael Turner (Ohio), Mike Rogers (Ala.), and Michael McCaul (Texas) said in a statement. 

Lawmakers don’t directly hold security clearances but are deemed trustworthy for receiving such information simply by the office they hold.  

Other briefings are restricted by committee membership — and the committees cannot be formally comprised until a Speaker is elected.  

“No members have clearances. Our election is supposed to be our vetting process. But the rules only let Intel Committee members view certain materials, the vast majority of the classified materials, and until we’re constituted, members really aren’t able to get those kinds of briefings or accesses,” said Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) who lead the intelligence committee during the prior session.  

Talks to reach a deal among Republicans to make McCarthy the Speaker have not been successful so far. 

Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who is among those opposing McCarthy, suggested in comments Thursday that it could take much more work to reach a deal. One of the concessions that has been discussed is a proposal that would allow a single member of Congress to force a vote to oust a Speaker. 

“There is a trust issue with the gentleman who wants to be Speaker,” Perry said. “It is hard to restore trust in just a month or two and it’s really hard to betray confidences in a meeting where the details are then leaked out to the press.” 

The group has also floated having members of the conservative Freedom Caucus be appointed as subcommittee chairs, subverting the normal process. The idea has drawn pushback from Rogers, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, who characterized it as “insane.”  

“As if Kevin McCarthy or any speaker magically gets to tell members, ‘Oh, by the way, I’m giving your seat to somebody else who’s an aggravation to the conference,’” Rogers told The Hill. “It just shows how insane they are.”  

The total freeze has also led to an interesting dynamic.  

A GOP staffer told The Hill that staff who receive security clearances due to the nature of their work are still able to access the SCIF and receive briefings, even as lawmakers cannot.  

“Nobody on our committee can go down and get briefed on things,” Schiff said.  

“The committee will need to be reconstituted. And most of the materials are only accessible to members of the committee and until reconstituted there are no members of the committee,” he told The Hill. “So Intel is more impacted really than probably just about any other committee.” 

The Intelligence Committee’s formation is more complicated than some other House panels, with members typically seeking waivers to bypass limitations on how many terms a member can sit on the panel — a nod to the importance of institutional knowledge in the constant churn of Congress. 

“Every delay here has a compounding impact. Because the first thing that happens there has to be a Speaker. Then committees are constituted, but Intel is a select committee. So the leader on the minority side and the Speaker have to agree to ratios. Then they have to work out other waivers that have to take place. Who’s the rank[ing member] or who’s the chairman, all these things take time,”Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.), who will need a wavier to continue to serve on the panel. 

Some see the shutdown of the House over the Speaker fight as embarrassing and worry it could have negative real-world consequences.  

McCaul, the top Republican on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, told The Hill on Thursday that he was worried about missing classified hearings on matters like Syria and the war in Ukraine. 

“Classified briefings about things like that Iran bombed our base in Syria,” he said. “You know, what’s going on in China and Taiwan? What’s going on in Ukraine? We don’t have time to get our classified briefings.” 

Quigley said it doesn’t take more than just a few days for lawmakers to fall behind on world affairs. 

“The world doesn’t stop because one caucus can’t agree. And a couple of days is one thing. Beyond that, it gets complicated and eventually dangerous. You’re flying blind. You don’t know what’s happening,” he said. 

Gallagher said the standoff risks hurting the nation’s global standing. 

“We’ve seen what happens over the last two years. When deterrence fails, when weakness invites aggression. It’s up to this Congress to restore deterrence to restore peace through strength, but we aren’t able to do that vital work until we actually get past the speaker vote, populate our committees and start getting to work,” he said.  

In some corners, the ire is only growing at the 20 lawmakers objecting to McCarthy’ leadership. 

“We have business, serious business, to do. This is not the place to be frivolous,” Rogers said. 

“And we’ve got some people who are being very frivolous right now.” 

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Democratic leaders urging rank-and-file to remain in Washington to vote against McCarthy

As Republicans scramble to seat a Speaker, Democratic leaders are urging their rank-and-file members to remain in Washington for the duration of the process — a strategy that will make it tougher for GOP leaders to resolve their historic dilemma to get the House up and running. 

Rep. Katherine Clark (Mass.), the incoming Democratic whip, said Thursday morning that she’s calling on members of the caucus to forego any personal plans to ensure that all 212 Democrats are in their seats and voting on the chamber floor, for as long as the process goes on. 

“And this is not a hard sell, because they understand what’s at stake,” Clark told reporters in the Capitol.

“This isn’t about events and celebrations that they have planned, which of course, you know, we would love to be able to do,” she continued. “But this is about the dangerous moment that we are in. And it is about the chaos that the Republicans are creating. 

“So we have to be here to make sure that we are doing everything possible to end this crisis to get a functioning House of Representatives, and to get to work for the American people.”

The comments arrive on the third day of the new Republican majority, which has been mired in the GOP’s unsuccessful effort to fill the Speaker’s seat vacated by Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). 

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is seeking the spot, and has the overwhelming support of his conference. But a small group of roughly 20 conservatives has blocked his path over the course of six separate votes conducted over the last 48 hours. 

That number is far above the four GOP defections McCarthy can afford to lose, given the narrow Republican majority in the lower chamber. And while McCarthy’s concessions to the holdouts have signaled some progress over the last day, he appears to be a long way from flipping 16 of those 20 defectors in his favor.

McCarthy’s math problem makes the Democrats’ strategy of urging members to remain in town that much more significant, because absences will lower the threshold he needs to seize the gavel. 

To win the Speaker’s race, a lawmaker needs the support from a simple majority of the lawmakers who are in the chamber and vote for a specific person. 

If all 434 House members meet those criteria, it requires 218 votes to win the gavel. But if there are a number of absences — or if lawmakers of either party decide to vote “present” — it lowers the threshold, which could allow McCarthy, or some other Republican, to lose more than four GOP votes and still win the gavel. 

In the first six ballots, all 212 Democrats voted for their party leader, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). And if that number stays consistent, it puts all the pressure on McCarthy to nibble away at those 20 detractors within his own party. 

Democratic leaders are insistent that they’re not going anywhere. 

“I cannot … overstate how united our caucus is,” Clark said.

Source: TEST FEED1