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McCarthy floats path to Speakership with lower vote threshold

House GOP Speaker nominee Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) expressed optimism about winning the gavel Tuesday night as he emerged from meetings with allied members following three failed ballots, floating the possibility of winning the post with fewer than 218 votes. 

“You’re sitting at 202 votes, so you need technically just 11 more votes to win,” McCarthy said.

“Democrats have 212 votes. You get 213 votes, and the others don’t say another name, that’s how you can win. You can win with 218. You could win with 222. But if you want to look at how you have to go about doing it,” McCarthy said.

A House Speaker is elected by a majority of all those voting for a specific Speaker candidate, not necessarily all members. Those voting “present” and those who are absent do not count toward that total, lowering the threshold.

Former House Speakers Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and John Boehner (R-Ohio) each won the Speakership with just 216 votes in 2021 and 2015, respectively.

In the three Tuesday votes, all 434 members voted in all ballots, putting the majority threshold at 218. In the first and second ballots, McCarthy got 203 votes, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) got 212, and 19 McCarthy opponents voted for other candidates. In the third vote, a 20th member joined the detractors, putting McCarthy at 202.

It is not clear, however, how McCarthy could not only win over 11 in the group to vote for him, but get the other nine to not vote for a candidate.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) dismissed the strategy of McCarthy getting across the line with “present” votes outside a separate meeting in the Capitol with McCarthy allies and detractors in the office of House GOP Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.).

“If he’s literally trying to patchwork votes together, to scrape together the votes by trying to carve out ‘present’ votes in hopes that people don’t show up or something, I just don’t see that as the right path to a strong leadership position,” Roy said.

Roy also cast strong doubts on the notion that any of the 20 Republicans who opposed McCarthy would play ball and vote “present” on Wednesday.  

“I definitely don’t see it,” he said. 

McCarthy is also not ruling out trying to get to the 218 votes.

“If we want to get to 218, we have to keep talking,” McCarthy said.

He said that most of the rules change and priority issues with the mostly hard-right House Freedom Caucus group have been settled, and that the issue of compromising on the “motion to vacate” – a move to force a vote on ousting the Speaker – was “done with.” McCarthy agreed to lower the threshold to just five members to bring up the move, down from a majority of the conference.

McCarthy is remaining defiant in the face of the opposition, saying multiple times that there is not a scenario in which he pulls out of the race for Speaker.

“It’s a little growth period that we have, but at the end of the day, all of this that we go through will make us stronger,” McCarthy said.

Mike Lillis contributed.

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Trump attacks McConnell, wife over GOP 'turmoil' after McCarthy fails to win Speakership  

Former President Trump on Tuesday lashed out at Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his wife, former Trump administration Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, for “unnecessary turmoil” within the GOP in the wake of House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (Calif.) failure to win the lower chamber’s Speakership.  

“There is so much unnecessary turmoil in the Republican Party,” Trump said, adding that the disorder is due in large part to McConnell, Chao and their “RINO” allies, using an acronym for “Republicans in name only.”

The statement is the latest example of Trump attacking not only McConnell but also his wife, who last month denounced the former president’s frequent use of a racist nickname for her. Trump repeated the nickname in his latest statement.

The former president’s comments came just after the House on Tuesday sat through three votes for Speaker, only to adjourn without a winner.  

Democrat Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) came out ahead of McCarthy in all three rounds of voting, but neither candidate secured the necessary 218 votes to take the top leadership spot — despite Republicans holding 222 seats after this year’s midterms. 

Nineteen Republicans voted against McCarthy in the first two votes, and the number of dissenters rose to 20 in the third round.

Trump had initially tried to help McCarthy get the votes he needed, but declined on Tuesday to say whether he’d continue supporting the lawmaker after he lost the three consecutive rounds of voting.  

The House will head into a fourth vote when it reconvenes on Wednesday at noon, and the process will continue until a nominee gets a majority of lawmakers’ ballots.  

Trump has long expressed his contempt for McConnell and for his former Transportation secretary. McConnell’s pullback from the former president has continued to rile Trump — and Chao resigned after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. 

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Five takeaways from Tuesday’s McCarthy drama at the Capitol  

Dramatic, chaotic events in the House transfixed the political world Tuesday, as Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) failed to secure the role of Speaker over three rounds of voting. 

The House adjourned, without a Speaker, in late afternoon. Nothing else of consequence can be done until someone wins the gavel. 

In the immediate aftermath of the midterm elections, McCarthy was seen as a strong favorite to become Speaker despite a slim GOP majority. The Californian has served as House minority leader for the past four years. 

Instead, opposition to McCarthy seemed to harden as the weeks went by. His inability to win the Speakership on the first round of voting is the only failure of its kind in 100 years. 

It is possible that McCarthy could win the post. But he is struggling badly and lacks momentum. 

Here are the key takeaways from Tuesday’s events. 

McCarthy didn’t come anywhere close to minimizing GOP opposition

Before the voting began, the focus was whether McCarthy had any chance of keeping GOP opposition to him to four votes or fewer — the level at which he would have a clear path to the Speakership. 

It was always going to be an uphill battle in the first round, since it relied upon the idea that McCarthy could win over at least one of his five most committed GOP opponents — Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.,) Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.), Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.). 

He didn’t come anywhere close. 

Nineteen Republicans voted for candidates other than McCarthy in the first round, and did so again, coalescing around Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) in round two. 

By the third round of voting, the anti-McCarthy Republicans actually increased their ranks by one, as Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) switched his vote to Jordan after backing McCarthy during the first two procedures. 

Jordan is not officially a nominee for Speaker, and he himself is backing McCarthy. 

There had been signs that the tide was going out on McCarthy in the days before the vote – notably when 14 Republicans, in addition to the five “Never Kevin” members, released a letter branding last-minute concessions from McCarthy “insufficient.” 

Still, the final numbers were startling — and bleak for McCarthy. 

Democrats stood together amid GOP drama

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is seen during the first day of the 118th session of Congress on Tuesday, January 3, 2023. (Greg Nash)

Democrats had about as good a day as it’s possible to have for a party newly relegated to the minority. 

Democrats stood smoothly and firm behind their nominee for Speaker, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). The unanimous Democratic support for Jeffries gave him the plurality of the votes in all three rounds of voting. 

There is no realistic chance of Jeffries becoming Speaker in a Republican-majority House. 

But Democrats were gleeful at the disarray in Republican ranks. At one point, progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) tweeted a photo of a bucket of popcorn. 

“We are breaking the popcorn out in the Dem Caucus till the Republicans get their act together,” Gallego wrote. 

Each time the clerk of the House announced the official vote tallies, there were whoops of delight from the Democratic seats and Republican consternation. 

Meanwhile, Sen Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) tweeted that “this is going to be every day in the House Republican majority…they are going to be an embarrassing public train wreck while they refuse to govern.” 

It’s a mystery how the stalemate gets broken 

The GOP is in a real bind. 

There is no sign at all of opposition to McCarthy weakening. But supporters of the Californian had been adamant before the voting began that they would stick with him until the end. 

Unless that dynamic changes, no one can be elected Speaker. Each faction has enough votes to thwart the other. 

Attention is inevitably turning to possible other options. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), who served as GOP whip in recent years, is one possibility. Another is Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.). But neither man has expressed any public willingness to take the role. 

Jordan is likely just too fiery and divisive to win, even if he were willing to seriously go forward. 

That leaves some even wilder ideas out there. One possibility that had been floated in recent days is former Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), who retired at the last election. The theory is that some Democrats might be prepared to join with Republicans to elect Upton, a GOP moderate, as Speaker, in return for some kind of concessions. 

But while there is no requirement that the Speaker be a sitting member of the House, such a move would be unprecedented and highly controversial. 

For the moment, stalemate reigns. 

A dismal start for House Republicans  

The failure to elect a Speaker was a debacle for House Republicans — and one that taints their new majority from its first day. 

The GOP won its narrow majority — 222-213 seats — on the promise to do something about inflation, the economy, immigration and what conservatives see as the excesses of the Biden administration. 

But one reason their majority was not bigger was because Democrats painted the GOP as extreme and dysfunctional. 

The chaotic opening of the new Congress has only fed that narrative, as even some Republicans seemed to acknowledge. 

“Every day we are delaying, we are letting down those voters,” a plaintive Ronna McDaniel, the chair of the Republican National Committee, told Fox News as the voting was still going on. 

House adjournment before 6 p.m. paints trouble for McCarthy

The House adjourned shortly before 5:30 p.m. ET — and that is likely bad news for McCarthy. 

His best, if perilous, route forward was to keep the House in session and hope fatigue and frustration would be his friends, increasing the pressure on his opponents. 

Instead, Republicans have all night to ponder whether McCarthy really has a realistic shot at getting to the magic number of 218 votes. 

If the answer to that is “no,” there is now time to try to plot out the road ahead and perhaps persuade someone, such as Scalise, to go forward as a compromise candidate.

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Chaos reigns in House as GOP fails to pick a Speaker

Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) bid to become the next House Speaker fell short on Tuesday over a string of three consecutive votes, marking a chaotic opening to a new Congress — and dampening the Republicans’ celebration as they took control of the House for the first time since 2018. 

The GOP standoff — pitting McCarthy and his allies against a small but persistent group of conservative firebrands — led to a bizarre day of commotion and confusion on the House floor, where frustrated Republicans sniped internally, amused Democrats reveled in the GOP’s struggles and lawmakers of both parties were forced to consider multiple speaker ballots for the first time in a century.

“Hunter Thompson was right: When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro,” said Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.). 

After McCarthy failed to secure the 218 votes he needed on the third ballot, Republican leaders quickly adjourned the chamber, punting the process to Wednesday. 

It was not the start to 2023 that Republicans had hoped to see. 

Despite underperforming in November’s midterms, Republicans had successfully flipped control of the lower chamber after just four years in the minority wilderness. And they’ve been eager to make good on their campaign promises, from moving legislation to address the volatile economy to launching investigations into a host of Biden administration initiatives. 

Instead, the impasse over the Speakership has left the House rudderless and in limbo, putting virtually all lower chamber business on hold — including the process of swearing in members — until the logjam is broken and the replacement for former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is seated. 

“You can’t finish finalizing your committee chairmen and assignments and staff, so it does hold that up,” said Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.). “But getting your leader right — that is more than anything else. You got to get your leader right and then, from there, you can do all your work.”

The internal opposition to McCarthy from the GOP’s right flank was no surprise: A small but determined group of conservatives had forecast for weeks that they would vote against his Speakership bid. And given the Republicans’ slim majority — they control 222 seats, to the Democrats’ 212 — McCarthy can afford to lose only four GOP votes. 

But the number of McCarthy detractors appeared to grow even higher in recent days, despite certain concessions to his critics. And the number of Republicans who opposed him on the floor — 19 in each of the first two ballots, and 20 in the third — was greater than even McCarthy’s sharpest critics had predicted.  

“It’s higher than most people thought it would be,” said Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), who has emerged as one of McCarthy’s most vocal GOP critics.

McCarthy’s plan was to wear down his opposition, and he was encouraged by the second ballot, which found no new detractors. In fact, the candidate his opponents put up against him — Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) — made the nominating speech for McCarthy ahead of that vote. 

“Their whole plan was for me to fall 40 on the second ballot and put Jim Jordan,” he said. 

“Their secret candidate nominated me, so where do they go now?” he continued. “I’m staying until we win.”

Yet the third ballot saw a slight erosion in McCarthy’s support, when Donalds shifted his vote to Jordan. 

“The reality is Rep. Kevin McCarthy doesn’t have the votes,” Donalds tweeted, explaining the shift. “I committed my support to him publicly and for two votes on the House Floor. 218 is the number, and currently, no one is there. Our conference needs to recess and huddle and find someone or work out the next steps.”

Shortly afterward, the House was adjourned. 

The opposition — and the embarrassing scene it created on the House floor on Tuesday — infuriated McCarthy’s supporters, who accused the detractors of empowering Biden and the Democrats on the very day Republicans were taking control of the lower chamber. 

Rep. Daniel Crenshaw, a third-term Texas Republican, called McCarthy’s opponents “political terrorists” who had put Republicans on a “path to suicide and getting Biden reelected in ’24.”

Other McCarthy allies accused the detractors of being obstructionists without offering any concrete ideas — or putting forward a viable Speaker candidate — of their own. 

“When asked point blank what they wanted, they had no answer,” said an angry Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.). 

For McCarthy, it’s not the first time he’s sought the Speaker’s gavel only to have those plans stymied by conservatives. After Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) was nudged into an early retirement by the far-right House Freedom Caucus in 2015, McCarthy was widely expected to fill the empty seat. But those same conservatives blocked McCarthy’s path, and he stepped out of the race before any votes were held on the floor. 

This time around McCarthy has been more defiant, vowing in recent weeks that he would not drop out of the race, as he did in 2015, even if the conservatives had the numbers to block his ascent. And he carried that defiance straight through Tuesday’s votes, saying the math will “eventually change” in his favor. 

“I know the path,” he said. 

Yet his critics are equally entrenched in their opposition. And it was their defiance that sunk McCarthy in the three ballots on Tuesday and forced the House to adjourn without a Speaker for the first time since 1923. As Republicans huddle Tuesday night to regroup, the detractors are vowing to hold their ground. 

“It’s going to be increasingly clear he’s not going to be Speaker,” Good said. “We will never cave. We will never vote for him. The sooner he pulls out for the good of the country, for the good of the Congress, for the good of the conference, the better everyone is and that way we can move together to try to find who the best person is.”

Emily Brooks, Al Weaver, Aris Folley and Mychael Schnell contributed.

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House adjourns with no Speaker

The House of Representatives adjourned Tuesday without a Speaker after three ballots for the gavel found no candidate with the majority.

Speaker nominee Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) lost 19 GOP votes on the first two ballots and 20 on the third ballot, leaving the conference in a stalemate on how to proceed.

All 434 members voted for a Speaker candidate, meaning 218 votes were needed to secure the post. With 222 House Republicans to 212 Democrats, McCarthy is well short of reaching that threshold.

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a McCarthy ally, made the motion to adjourn, and it was adopted by voice vote. The House will return at noon on Wednesday.

It marks the first time in a century that the House has gone to multiple ballots for Speaker. In 1923, the Speaker election took nine ballots over three days.

The repeated failed votes for McCarthy were expected by much of the conference, particularly after rules change concessions and a heated House GOP meeting on Tuesday morning did not move any of McCarthy’s detractors or those on the fence.

The longtime GOP leader’s opponents coalesced around Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) for the second and third vote, despite the incoming House Judiciary Chairman supporting McCarthy and giving a floor speech nominating him ahead of the second ballot.

McCarthy, who remained stoic on the floor during the long voting process even as it became obvious he would lose, remains adamant he will eventually win the gavel.

“Remember how they all said they have this secret candidate? Their secret candidate nominated me, so where do they go now?” McCarthy said, referring to Jordan. “This can’t be about that, you’re going to leverage somebody for your own personal gain.”

“I’m staying until we win,” McCarthy added. “It will eventually change.”

McCarthy privately huddled with allies including Reps. Steve Scalise (R-La.), Jordan and Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) after the second ballot.

But the third vote saw an uptick in the number of McCarthy detractors, with Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) flipping to support Jordan after he voted McCarthy on the first two ballots. 

“My concern has been, like, look, it’s been two months, bro, you got to close the deal,” Donalds said, referring to the time between the midterm elections and the start of the Congress. “You got two months. And so at this point now is that if you can’t close it, we got to find who can.”

The continued McCarthy opposition has frustrated his supporters and allies who have pledged to not waiver in their support. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) cast her votes for McCarthy as “Only Kevin.”

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) said that the McCarthy antagonists are putting the House GOP “path to suicide and getting [President] Biden reelected in ’24.” He said he has heard talk of Republican members negotiating with Dems to nominate a moderate Republican who would be more open to negotiation.

Whether GOP members can come to any agreement is uncertain.

“We’re going to go have some more conversations tonight and see what’s next,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who voted for candidates other than McCarthy on all three ballots.

Al Weaver and Aris Folley contributed.

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McCarthy fails to secure Speakership on historic second ballot

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) failed to win the Speakership on a second ballot Tuesday afternoon, sending the race for the top spot to a third ballot.

McCarthy received 203 votes, the same as on the first ballot and fewer than the 218 needed to secure the gavel in the chamber. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) secured 212 votes, winning support from the entire Democratic caucus.

All 19 McCarthy detractors, who had split their votes among several lawmakers on the first round, coalesced around Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) on the second.

McCarthy did not win over any Republicans on the second ballot, a troubling sign for the GOP leader who has vowed to remain in the race for as long as it takes him to become Speaker. The same 19 Republicans voted against him on the second ballot as the first.

The Speakership race, which hasn’t gone to a second ballot in a century, now goes goes to a third ballot with neither side publicly backing down.

Jordan only received six votes on the first ballot — Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) secured 10 votes the first time around, while Reps. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) each received one.

Jordan’s 19 votes came despite nominating McCarthy for Speaker on the second ballot and, shortly after, voting for him. The Ohio Republican has said he does not want to serve as Speaker and instead wishes to chair the House Judiciary Committee.

“To my friends here on this side of the aisle, I would just say this: the differences we may have, the differences between Joyce and Jordan or Biggs and Bacon, they pale in comparison to the differences between us and the left, which now unfortunately controls the other party,” Jordan said in his nominating speech.

He ticked through three objectives for the 118th Congress: passing bills that fix problems, approve budgets and government funding through regular order, and conduct investigation and oversight.

“We had better come together and fight for these key things. These three things, that’s what the people want us to do,” he said. “And I think Kevin McCarthy is the right guy to lead us. I really do or I wouldn’t be standing up here giving this speech.”

Shortly before the second ballot began, Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), who voted for Biggs on the first ballot, said the McCarthy detractors are pushing for Jordan because he does not want the job, calling the Ohio Republican a “reluctant warrior.”

“The leading vote getter for the Republican Party will do or say anything to win. That desperation that has set in where his life’s ambition has been for this job. That’s part of what makes him wrong for this job,” Good said. “We want a reluctant warrior who is willing to serve if called upon and Jim Jordan is that person.”

The list of Jordan supporters included Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Dan Bishop (N.C.), Lauren Boebert (Colo.), Michael Cloud (Texas), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Andrew Clyde (Ga.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.), Paul Gosar (Ariz.), Andy Harris (Md.), Mary Miller (Ill.), Ralph Norman (S.C.), Scott Perry (Pa.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.) and Chip Roy (Texas), and Reps.-elect Josh Brecheen (Okla.), Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.), Andy Ogles (Tenn.) and Keith Self (Texas).

Al Weaver contributed.

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Here are the 19 GOP lawmakers who voted against McCarthy for Speaker on first ballot

Nineteen House Republicans voted against Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for Speaker during the first ballot on Tuesday, denying the GOP nominee the gavel and forcing members to hold another vote for the top spot.

The votes against McCarthy went to Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) — who was nominated for Speaker on the floor — in addition to Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), who became an ex-member on Tuesday, when the 117th Congress officially came to an end.

Biggs received 10 votes, Jordan secured 6, and Banks, Donalds and Zeldin each earned one.

McCarthy received 203 votes and the Democratic nominee, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), won 212, both short of the majority needed to win the Speakership.

Here’s who McCarthy’s GOP detractors voted for.

Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.) — Biggs

Rep. Dan Bishop (N.C.) — Biggs

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) — Jordan

Rep.-elect Josh Brecheen (Okla.) — Banks

Rep. Michael Cloud (Texas) — Jordan

Rep. Eli Crane (Ariz.) — Biggs

Rep. Andrew Clyde (Ga.) — Biggs

Rep. Matt Gaetz (Fla.) — Biggs

Rep. Bob Good (Va.) — Biggs

Rep. Paul Gosar (Ariz.) — Biggs

Rep. Andy Harris (Md.) — Zeldin

Rep.-elect Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.) — Jordan

Rep. Mary Miller (Ill.) — Jordan

Rep. Ralph Norman (S.C.) — Biggs

Rep.-elect Andy Ogles (Tenn.) — Jordan

Rep. Scott Perry (Pa.) — Biggs

Rep. Matt Rosendale (Mont.) — Biggs

Rep. Chip Roy (Texas) — Donalds

Rep.-elect Keith Self (Texas) — Jordan

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McCarthy blocked from Speakership as House moves to second ballot

A group of 19 hardline House Republicans blocked GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from securing the gavel on the first vote to elect a Speaker on Tuesday, sending the House to a second ballot for the first time in a century.

The vote was 203 for McCarthy, 212 for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), 10 for Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), six for Rep Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), one for Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), one for Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), and one for former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.).

No members voted “present” or were absent, which would have lowered the threshold that McCarthy must meet to get majority support.

That put McCarthy below the threshold of a majority of the 218 members voting for a Speaker candidate.

A second vote for Speaker began immediately, and the House will continue through possibly multiple ballots until a Speaker is elected.

In a House GOP Conference meeting Tuesday morning, an impassioned McCarthy vowed to wage a long battle for the Speakership.

“I have the record for the longest speech ever on the floor. I don’t have a problem getting a record for most votes for Speaker, too,” McCarthy told reporters after the meeting.

McCarthy has faced weeks of opposition from hardline conservatives including Biggs, Reps. Bob Good (Va.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.) and Ralph Norman (S.C.), who had been known as a “Never Kevin” group. They said McCarthy’s resistance to rules changes, involvement in primaries and leadership history — among other issues — meant they could not support him for Speaker.

Over the weekend, McCarthy offered some late concessions to those withholding support for him including allowing a move to “vacate the chair” — a move to force a vote on ousting the Speaker — with the approval of five Republican members, rather than a threshold of at least half of the House GOP Conference.

But that did little to sway his critics, as nine House Republicans — which did not include the “Never Kevin” five — signaled in a Sunday letter.

“At this stage, it cannot be a surprise that expressions of vague hopes reflected in far too many of the crucial points still under debate are insufficient,” the members said in the letter, led by House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.).

Allies of McCarthy have signaled they will not waver in their support for him, as long as he stays in the running.

The vote marks the first time since 1923 that the House Speaker election has gone to multiple ballots. That year, the election took nine ballots over three days. Before that, 13 other multiple-ballot Speaker elections occurred before the Civil War.

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Three possible Speakers-in-waiting to watch if McCarthy falls

The fate of Speaker-designate Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is hanging by a thread as a group of nearly 20 House GOP lawmakers voted against him for the top spot on the first ballot to become Speaker.

While the vote has not been closed, the results point to the level of opposition to a McCarthy speakership within the GOP conference.

McCarthy has vowed he will fight it out on as many ballots as it takes, but his failure will lead to questions about whether Republicans need to move to a difference candidate to unite their members.

Here’s a few lawmakers to keep ay eye on.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) 

If everything goes to hell for McCarthy, Scalise is viewed as the natural second option to become Speaker.  

The Louisiana Republican has been in the national spotlight ever since he rose to prominence following the 2017 shooting during practice for the Congressional Baseball Game that left him severely injured. However, the incident gave him cache and a standing unlike most non-McCarthy members in the House Republican conference. 

For years, Scalise has attempted to tamp down any chatter of a rivalry with McCarthy. He’s been a solid ally of McCarthy’s dating back to 2018 when then-Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) exited Congress. He has also stood shoulder to shoulder alongside throughout the past year and in recent weeks, having vowed to support McCarthy to the end. 

It’s also unclear if Scalise would get to 218 votes on the floor.

Much of the issues with McCarthy have been centered on how GOP leadership has operated in recent years — which Scalise has, of course, been a key cog in for the past decade. 

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a leading moderate, on Monday cast doubt over whether Scalise himself could win the Speakership.

“I don’t know,” he said, adding that Scalise and McCarthy are “very similar.”

“They’re almost, to me, they’re the same. They represent a lot of the same ideology, and they’ve built this team together,” Bacon said. “So what’s the purpose of them demanding Kevin to step down?” 

On the plus side for Scalise, he has the structure to plug into the Speakership, including a whip counting effort that’s been up and running for years and a top fundraising apparatus. But getting the Speakership would be the big first step. 

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)

Jordan is widely considered the leading conservative in the House, but winning the gavel would be an incredibly high bar for him to clear for a multitude of reasons. 

Memories are long on Capitol Hill, and despite Jordan’s status now as an ally of McCarthy and GOP leadership, the incoming chairman of the House Judiciary Committee is still known more for being a rabble rouser rather than someone who could lead the conference. 

Jordan has run for the top spot before. He launched a futile bid to replace Ryan as Speaker in 2018 and, subsequently, to become minority leader once Democrats won back the House months later. But he was never considered a true contender, having lost to McCarthy 159-43 at the time. 

However, he did win six votes on the first ballot — from Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Michael Cloud (R-Texas), Mary Miller (R-W.Va.) and Andy Ogles (R-Ohio), Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Keith Self (R-Texas).

Could that lead to more votes in subsequent tallies?

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) 

Consider this the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency situation for House Republicans.

McHenry, the former deputy whip to Scalise during Ryan’s tenure, has always been considered a ladder-climber during his years on Capitol Hill, having arrived as a conservative willing to create trouble and becoming a top member on the leadership team and, now, an incoming committee chairman.

However, McHenry has made it clear for months: He wants zero part of this job. Perhaps, less than zero if that’s possible.

There’s a reason why he came out in April and announced his intentions to seek the top spot on the House Financial Services Committee instead of a spot in leadership.

“I’d like the opportunity to run an agenda and I’m optimistic about the opportunities we have around innovation, capital formation and oversight that make it very interesting to be on the Financial Services Committee and to run the agenda of the committee,” McHenry told Punchbowl News in April. “Given the circumstance, I’m much more optimistic about the opportunities we have at Financial Services than the role that I could play at House Republican leadership.”

But if McCarthy goes down and the white smoke doesn’t arrive for Scalise, don’t be surprised if chatter increases for the North Carolina Republican to take the job — and if he sprints away from that talk just as fast.   

Unknown/Mystery/Your Guess Is As Good As Ours

Outside of those options, the question of who could win is the ultimate guessing game. 

Talk of a compromise candidate, be it on an interim basis or a choice decided on by moderate members with the help of House Democrats, has largely been swatted away, especially as some centrists have grown bullish in their support for McCarthy.

Outgoing Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) was floated by Bacon, but he told reporters last month that he wouldn’t even be around the Capitol for the Speaker’s vote and would instead be on a ski trip.

Adding to the issues on a compromise candidate, Democrats have made it clear they will support Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) in every vote and only Jeffries, pretty much eliminating that possibility. 

There is also the oft-mentioned hypothetical that a non-House member could become Speaker. It is technically true. But most think that’s extremely unlikely to happen.

Emily Brooks contributed.

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