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Defiant McCarthy vows to fight to the end

A defiant Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) vowed Tuesday to fight as long as it takes to win the Speaker’s gavel in the new Congress, challenging his Republican detractors with threats of a marathon process that would undermine Republicans politically just as they’re taking control of the lower chamber. 

In a 90-minute closed-door meeting in the Capitol basement, McCarthy gave an impassioned speech to the House GOP Conference, making the case that he’s earned the right to replace outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). 

“Kevin was about as fired [up] as I’ve ever seen him,” said Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.), who predicted that “90 percent” of the room was strongly behind the Republican leader.

Yet McCarthy can afford only four dissenting votes from within the GOP conference, and his detractors say they have many more than that lined up to sink his speakership bid. The House will hold an election for Speaker this afternoon.

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) said there are “absolutely” enough votes to block McCarthy, at least on the first ballot. McCarthy’s entreaties, he said, swayed none of the detractors. 

“Nothing’s changed,” he said. 

“I’ll be voting for Biggs,” echoed Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), referring to Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), who is also running for Speaker this week. 

Yet McCarthy has remained undaunted, vowing to remain on the floor for as many ballots as it takes to wear down his opponents and win the gavel. 

“I have the record for the longest speech ever on the floor. I don’t have a problem getting a record for most votes for Speaker, too,” McCarthy said after the meeting. 

Asked how long it will take to elect a Speaker, McCarthy said: “I think it might take a while.”

Wagner said that was the same message McCarthy had delivered behind closed doors moments earlier. 

“He was not recessing. He was not reconvening. He was not standing down. He was going to stay and fight,” she said.

McCarthy allies cheered in support during the meeting, and Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) reportedly floated denying committee assignments to those who do not vote for McCarthy.

Yet McCarthy’s math problem seemed to worsen on Tuesday morning, as some of the members who had been withholding support for McCarthy without revealing their final position said after the meeting that they will not vote for him on the floor.

“Kevin McCarthy is not the right candidate to be Speaker,” Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) said in a statement.

“As it stands, I will not be voting for Kevin McCarthy,” Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) told reporters.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) said that McCarthy “lied” to members during his pitch, but would not specify about what.

McCarthy similarly fired back at his detractors, telling reporters that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said during the meeting, “I don’t care if we go to plurality and we elect Hakeem Jeffries.” Jeffries (D-N.Y) was elected last month as Democratic leader.

Gaetz — who said he will vote for Biggs Tuesday afternoon —  also took a shot at McCarthy after the fiery meeting, admitting that he and Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) have a trust problem with the GOP leader.

“It is true that we struggle with trust with Mr. McCarthy because time and again his viewpoints, his positions, they shift like sands underneath you,” Gaetz told reporters, standing beside Perry and Boebert.

“Those of us who will not be voting for Kevin McCarthy today take no joy in this discomfort that this moment has brought, but if you want to drain the swamp, you cannot put the biggest alligator in charge of the exercise,” he said at another point in his remarks. “I’m a Florida man and I know of what I speak.”

But even as the number of public opponents to McCarthy ticks up, the hard-right House Freedom Caucus remains divided on McCarthy’s Speakership, with high-profile members like Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) supporting McCarthy.

“The majority of the Freedom Caucus is voting for Kevin,” said Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), who added that he will vote for McCarthy.

The chaos surrounding Tuesday’s Speaker vote has infuriated McCarthy’s supporters, who are eager to use their new House majority to get on with the business of taking on President Biden and his administration on a host of policy issues. 

Some are turning their anger toward McCarthy’s critics, accusing them of disrupting the process without a viable alternative. 

“When asked point blank what they wanted, they had no answer,” said Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.).

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McCarthy battles opponents in closed-door GOP meeting ahead of Speaker's vote

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) is battling his GOP colleagues in a last ditch effort to lock down the 218 votes he needs to be elected Speaker.

The 118th Congress opens on Tuesday and all eyes will be on the House as it votes for Speaker — the required first order of business.

It’s been more than a century since it took more than one ballot to elect a Speaker but as of Tuesday morning McCarthy doesn’t seem to have the required number of votes locked up — and is fighting to get there.

The 118th Congress opens at noon. Stay with The Hill for live updates throughout the day below:

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The Republicans voting against McCarthy

As House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) bid for Speaker hangs in the balance, several far-right members of his own party have indicated that they plan to oppose him in Tuesday’s vote. 

The five “Never Kevin” Republicans — Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Ralph Norman (S.C.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.) and Bob Good (Va.) — have pledged to vote as a bloc on Tuesday, and they all appear likely to remain firmly anti-McCarthy.

The group has the potential to derail McCarthy’s Speaker vote, as the House minority leader can afford to lose only four GOP votes after Republicans secured a slim 222-213 majority in November’s midterm elections.

If McCarthy fails to secure a majority on Tuesday, the Speaker election will go to a second ballot for the first time in a century.

Andy Biggs

Despite soundly losing the GOP nomination for Speaker in mid-November, Biggs announced earlier this month that he would challenge McCarthy for the position before the full House.

“I’m running for Speaker to break the establishment,” Biggs said in a tweet on Dec. 6. “Kevin McCarthy was created by, elevated by, and maintained by the establishment.”

Biggs has remained steadfast in his opposition to the current House minority leader, saying in an interview with Fox News on Thursday that he does not see any scenario in which he would vote for McCarthy.

While he has put himself forward as an alternative, Biggs does not appear tied to his own Speakership and has suggested that several other Republican members could be “very capable” of being Speaker.

“We feel support. There are those who will not support me, but there are others who are quietly indicating that they’ll either support me or someone else,” Biggs said in a Fox Business interview on Wednesday.

Matt Gaetz

Gaetz has also remained a staunch opponent to a McCarthy Speakership, recently suggesting that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) should take up the mantle instead.

“I’m not voting for Kevin McCarthy for Speaker because he’s just a shill of The Establishment,” Gaetz told the Daily Caller in a recent interview.

“We need someone like Jim Jordan as the speaker of the House, who can cast a vision and who has the trust and confidence of the people across the spectrum in the House,” he added.

The Florida congressman has repeatedly pushed for Jordan to jump in the race as Tuesday’s vote grows closer.

“All I want for Christmas is @Jim_Jordan to realize he should be Speaker of the House!” Gaetz said in a Christmas Eve tweet, adding on Christmas Day, “Merry Christmas to all! Make sure to join me in encouraging @Jim_Jordan to seek the Speakership.”

However, Jordan himself has shown no indication that he plans to run for Speaker, instead choosing to endorse McCarthy and expressing concern that a McCarthy loss could push moderate Republicans to work with Democrats to find an alternative candidate.

“So let’s hope that there’s never any kind of bargain where you bring the Democrats into play because they’ll be … trying to stop investigations that are our constitutional duty to conduct,” Jordan told Breitbart earlier this month.

Ralph Norman

Unlike his fellow members of the “Never Kevin” squad, Norman appears to have left more room to shift his position on McCarthy. However, he has yet to indicate any change of heart on the upcoming vote.

Norman initially told Politico in late November that he was a “hard” no vote on McCarthy’s Speakership over his approach to the national debt.

“Economic security is national security. I was not happy with the answer Kevin gave me about balancing the budget,” he said at the time. “I don’t care who the speaker is. It could be Mickey Mouse, but if we have our way, we’re gonna have some firm economic mandates.”

However, the South Carolina Republican appeared to soften his stance slightly, with Politico reporting that he was a “no right now” in mid-December. 

“We’ll negotiate,” Norman added, when Axios first reported the group of five’s decision to vote as a bloc. “By 11:59 [a.m.] on Jan. 3, we’ll know.”

While Norman said McCarthy could sway his vote by agreeing to a plan to balance the budget within seven years, he added that it might not persuade the others, who he promised would “all operate as five.” 

“We come as five, so we’re going to agree on all [of the concessions we need],” Norman said, according to Axios.

Matt Rosendale

Rosendale has pointed to McCarthy’s pushback on several proposed rules changes for his participation in the “Never Kevin” group. 

“[McCarthy] made it clear that he is unwilling to meaningfully change the rules and challenge the status quo in Washington,” Rosendale said in an op-ed for the Billings Gazette in early December. 

“Current Republican leadership falls in with the majority of politicians who campaign on change but support the current system that provides them with undeserved power and privilege,” he continued.

Rosendale suggested that he was still on board with the group of five and their opposition to McCarthy in a tweet on Friday.

“We must change the rules and leadership if we are going to restore functionality to congress. There are many more than 5 who recognize this,” Rosendale wrote in response to a post from Gaetz about the Speakership election.

However, the Montana Republican previously said he would vote for McCarthy under “extreme circumstances.”

Bob Good

Good, the final member of the five, insisted in an interview with Politico Playbook last week that McCarthy still does not have his vote.

“He doesn’t have anything that I want,” Good told Playbook.

Good also suggested that between 10 and 20 Republicans would vote against McCarthy on Tuesday. While the Virginia congressman said the anti-McCarthy group plans to vote for Biggs in the first vote, it intends to coalesce around another candidate on the second.

“I believe you have enough courageous conservatives who are recognizing based on past history that there’s nothing to indicate that [McCarthy] will bring the fight to the battle,” Good said in an interview with a local Virginia radio station.

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The Hill's Morning Report — Will McCarthy get the votes to become Speaker?

Editor’s note: The Hill’s Morning Report is our daily newsletter that dives deep into Washington’s agenda. To subscribe, click here or fill out the box below.

It’s the moment of truth for Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) as the House votes on Tuesday for a Speaker, revealing whether he has the confidence of his conference to lead a new House GOP majority.

It remains unclear how the vote will play out, The Hill’s Emily Brooks reports, as McCarthy faces vocal opposition from a number of hardline Republicans who have threatened to derail his bid. His allies, meanwhile, remain staunchly loyal to the California lawmaker. 

If no candidate wins a majority of votes on the first ballot of the Speakership election — which is scheduled for noon — it will mark the first time in exactly 100 years that the House has gone to multiple votes for the post. With 222 Republicans to 212 Democrats in the 118th Congress, McCarthy can afford to lose just four votes. But his rivals have insisted he doesn’t have the votes for weeks, and five House Republicans have strongly indicated they will not vote for the California Republican, while several more have withheld their support. 

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), who in December was a challenger to McCarthy for the Speakership nomination, has estimated that around 20 Republicans will not vote for the Republican Leader.

“The problem is that people don’t trust Kevin McCarthy,” Scott Perry (R-Pa.), chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, told The Hill on Sunday. “The fact that we are now approaching the eleventh hour is not the fault, or is not the responsibility, of his detractors. It’s his responsibility, and the blame lies with him.”

Even McCarthy’s Sunday concession to lowering the barriers for rank-and-file members to attempt to depose a sitting Speaker — a change that some GOP lawmakers have warned could weaken their leadership team — might not be enough for him to win the gavel. Right-wing Republicans had been pushing for the rule change, which would allow five members of the House majority to force a vote of no confidence in their leader. But his critics maintain that the measure, which was neutered by Democrats after they took control of the House, should be brought back needing only one member to make the motion as a check on the Speaker’s power, as it did for more than a century (The Hill, The New York Times and Roll Call). 

The conservative Club for Growth released a whip notice for the Speakership vote on Monday, urging a no vote on McCarthy without explicitly naming him. 

Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), a McCarthy ally, predicted Monday that Republicans will go “however long it takes” to elect a Speaker on Tuesday, but the first vote will likely provide some early indications on how the day will play out (Politico).

“The way the alphabet works, you’ll know on the first ballot pretty quickly,” he said, referring to the alphabetical roll call. “And then we’ll figure out how it grinds out.”

The Hill: What you need to know about the House Speaker election.

A range of GOP stakeholders inside and outside the House could play key roles in the lead-up to and during the vote and its aftermath, writes The Hill’s Jared Gans, who has rounded up the Republicans to watch on Tuesday.

▪ The Hill: Former GOP aide on Speaker vote: “Self-serving” Republicans would make “mockery” of Congress.

▪ The New York Times: Here are the House Republicans to watch if McCarthy’s bid for Speaker falters.

Related Articles

▪ The Washington Post: In her own words: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) steps back after decades in charge.

▪ The New York Times: Brazilian authorities will revive a fraud case against Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.).

▪ The Washington Post: New liberal Latino lawmakers are preparing to challenge the status quo.

▪ Vox: 23 things we think will happen in 2023.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ POLITICS

After a 2022 that saw Democrats celebrate passing key parts of their agenda and defy expectations in the midterms, the next year is set to bring about change in a newly divided Congress and set the table for the presidential election in 2024. The presidential field will take shape as Republicans mull whether to take on former President Trump and President Biden’s own future takes center stage. The Supreme Court, too, could once again reshape the political arena with major rulings.

The Hill’s Brett Samuels details six storylines to watch that will shape the year ahead.

With three Southern states — Louisiana, Mississippi and Kentucky — gearing up for governors’ contests in 2023, their outcomes could give an early indication of the way the political winds are blowing ahead of the presidential election in 2024. As The Hill’s Caroline Vakil reports, While Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is term-limited and unable to run again, Govs. Tate Reeves (R) in Mississippi and Andy Beshear (D) in Kentucky are up for reelection.

The race to become the Republican nominee in the 2024 presidential election is quickly becoming a volatile affair, writes The Hill’s Max Greenwood. While Trump alone has formally launched a campaign, most Republicans expect that to change soon. But questions about the future of the party, and Trump’s own legal troubles, are sure to lead to considerations about whether the former president is still the best standard-bearer for the GOP.

▪ Politico: Here are the four big election storylines for 2023.

▪ NBC News: Here are the four major battles facing Congress in 2023.

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol on Sunday released a vast database of its underlying evidence, Politico reports. The panel’s evidence provides the clearest glimpse yet at the well-coordinated effort by some Trump allies to help the former president seize a second term he didn’t win.

▪ Vox: Will 2023 be the year Trump is indicted?

▪ The Hill: Trump’s tax returns raise alarms about the fairness of the U.S. tax code.

➤ ADMINISTRATION

While Biden is entering the new year riding high following a better-than-expected Democratic midterm election performance that has improved his political standing while damaging Trump, he also faces lingering questions over his age and his overall political strength. Most notably, The Hill’s Alex Gangitanto reports, questions remain whether he could defeat Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis if he is the GOP nominee in 2024.

Cristina Antelo, a Democratic strategist who runs Ferox Strategies, told The Hill that Biden’s age remains a concern among Democratic voters. Biden, 80, would finish a second term at the age of 86. DeSantis, meanwhile, is 44, while Trump is 76. 

“It’s crazy to me that Biden is polling so low, even with Dems, considering how much has been accomplished in these first two years,” Antelo said. “But, yes, Dems seem worried that ‘an old white guy’ at the top of the ticket just isn’t going to cut it if the threats to democracy that Trump embodies aren’t on the ballot.”

▪ Politico: Biden begins 2023 with a stronger hand to play and an inclination to play it.

▪ The New York Times: Biden caps two years of action on the economy, with new challenges ahead.

▪ NPR: Biden has made choosing diverse federal judges a priority.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL

Russia deployed a series of exploding drones around Kyiv on Monday, marking its most recent attack in a bombardment of strikes taken against Ukraine in the new year. Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in a Telegram post that 40 drones were heading for the city overnight, but air defenses destroyed all of them. 

The defenses destroyed 22 drones over the city, three in the region and 15 in other provinces. President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a Saturday address that “no one” will forgive Russia for spreading terror, noting that it attacked Ukraine on New Year’s Eve and other holidays such as Easter and Christmas (The Hill). 

Meanwhile, a Ukrainian attack on a building sheltering Russian soldiers in the occupied Donetsk region killed 63 service members on New Year’s Day, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Monday, which would mark one of the deadliest strikes on Russian forces since the beginning of the war. Ukraine claimed that hundreds of soldiers were killed in the attack, but the figure could not be independently confirmed (The Washington Post).

▪ The New York Times: How Russia’s war on Ukraine is worsening global starvation.

▪ The Washington Post: Europe prepares to take in more Ukrainians, with less support, in 2023.

Israel conducted a missile strike on the international airport in Damascus, Syria on Monday, killing two soldiers and injuring two others, according to the Syrian army. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks human rights abuses in the country and has been described as supporting the Syrian opposition to President Bashar Assad, said four people were killed in the strike, but the conflicting reports could not be immediately reconciled (The Hill).

▪ Vox: In China, Xi Jinping has abandoned “zero COVID.” What happens now?

▪ The New York Times: Russia’s war could make it India’s world.

▪ Reuters: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sacks No. 2 military official.

OPINION

■ A failed Speaker vote for McCarthy would be a historic event, by Brendan Buck, guest essayist, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/3Z7YgHC 

■ Will 2023 be a better year for international peace and public health? by Brahma Chellaney, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/3GACSDM

WHERE AND WHEN

🎆 Happy New Year from us at Morning Report! Alexis Simendinger returns to the newsletter tomorrow, Jan. 4.

👉 The Hill: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.

The House will convene at noon for the Speakership election.

The Senate will convene at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session, and reconvene at noon to swear in new members.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10:15 a.m.

The vice president will preside over the Senate at noon to open the chamber and administer the oath of office to all newly-elected and re-elected Senators. At 1 p.m., she will ceremonially swear in newly-elected and re-elected Senators in the Old Senate Chamber. 

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 2:30 p.m.

ELSEWHERE

➤ ECONOMY

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Sunday warned that the global economy faces “a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind.”

“We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession,” she told CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “Why? Because the three big economies — U.S., EU, China — are all slowing down simultaneously.”

The IMF warned in October about the chance of a global recession in 2023, but different economies may be better positioned to weather it. While Georgieva said the U.S. may avoid a recession this year, the European Union, due to the war in Ukraine and subsequent cost-of-living crisis, may not be able to do so (Bloomberg News).

Big banks, however, are painting a different picture and predicting that an economic downturn is fast approaching. According to The Wall Street Journal, more than two-thirds of the economists at 23 large financial institutions that do business directly with the Federal Reserve are betting there will be a U.S. recession this year, while two others are predicting a recession in 2024.

The Hill’s Sylvan Lane breaks down four ways to prepare for an uncertain 2023 economy: Plan for inflation, don’t expect the stock market to roar back, remember that security will be valuable in a recession, and, finally, brace for higher interest rates.

The Wall Street Journal: Stay for pay? Companies offer big raises to retain workers.

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

The COVID-19 omicron XBB.1.5 variant has nearly doubled in prevalence over the past week and now represents about 41 percent of new cases in the U.S., according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). While data on XBB.1.5 is currently limited, a recent article in the journal Cell by researchers from Columbia University recently found that that sublineages of the BQ and XBB omicron subvariants had a “dramatically increased” ability to evade antibody protection, even among those who had received the bivalent booster dose (The Hill).

The start of the year is a time for many to set workout goals, and motivation for exercise can come in many different forms, The Washington Post reports. Here’s advice from experts on how to make 2023 the year you get moving.

▪ The Atlantic: At-home swabbing still works just fine, but we can’t seem to escape false negatives with rapid tests. What gives?

▪ NBC News: Risk of a dangerous new COVID-19 variant in China is “quite low,” U.S. health expert says.

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,092,679. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,530 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

THE CLOSER

And finally … 🧀 Cheese lovers, rejoice. The creamy, nutty, sometimes even pungent dairy product is among the nation’s favorite — and it’s healthier than most would expect. 

“Cheese is packed with nutrients like protein, calcium and phosphorus, and can serve a healthy purpose in the diet,” Lisa Young, an adjunct professor of nutrition at New York University­, told The Washington Post. 

Americans’ per capita cheese consumption is 40 pounds a year, or just over 1.5 ounces a day, but fret not: Research shows that even full-fat cheddar — or brie, or mozzarella — won’t raise or reduce the risk of chronic diseases such as Type 2 diabetes or heart disease. Some studies even show that cheese can be preventative. The process of turning milk into cheese changes the way the nutrients and other components in it are chemically arranged, which alters how it’s digested and processed by the body.

This can lead to health effects that are different from those of eating the same nutrients in another form — say cream or butter.

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

What you need to know about the House Speaker election

Opposition to House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) for Speaker from a handful of Republican members has the potential to derail his bid and set a marker in history as the first multiple-ballot Speaker election in a century.

No matter what happens, the day is sure to hold surprises and plenty of political drama.

Here is what to know about the process for electing a House Speaker, the math to win nthe election on the floor, what happens if there is no winner and much, much more.

Understanding McCarthy’s math problem

House Republicans’ slim majority heading into the 118th Congress is putting McCarthy in a bind.

The House has 222 incoming Republicans, 212 incoming Democrats and one vacancy left by the death of Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Va.) shortly after his reelection. The special election to fill the vacancy for the solidly Democratic seat is on Feb. 21.

A majority of the whole House is 218 votes, and five or more Republican defections would put McCarthy below that threshold.

McCarthy is in trouble because five House Republicans — Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.) and Ralph Norman (S.C.) — have explicitly said or strongly indicated they will not support McCarthy. 

Several other House Republicans pushing for rules changes that would empower rank-and-file members have withheld support for McCarthy without explicitly saying they will vote against him. Those members include Reps. Scott Perry (Pa.), Chip Roy (Texas) and Lauren Boebert (Colo.).

When the House GOP conference nominated McCarthy to be Speaker in November, 36 members did not vote for him. Biggs has said he thinks there are around 20 “hard noes” on McCarthy.

All Democrats are expected to vote for incoming House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) for Speaker — at least on the first ballot.

It is possible to elect a Speaker with fewer than 218 votes. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) were elected with 216 votes in 2021 and 2015, respectively.

Current House practice dictates that the Speaker must be elected by a majority of those voting for a specific Speaker candidate by surname. Vacancies, absences and “present” votes lower that threshold. 

Unexpected absences due to illness, weather or other circumstances, then, could affect McCarthy’s math.

Theoretically, some McCarthy opponents could vote “present” rather than for an alternative candidate in order to express opposition without jeopardizing McCarthy’s path to the gavel.

For instance, if 216 Republicans vote for McCarthy, 212 vote for Jeffries, two Republicans vote for other candidates and four vote “present,” McCarthy would be elected Speaker with a majority of all those voting for a candidate.

But the five most vocal McCarthy opponents have forecasted that they will not vote “present” — keeping McCarthy’s bid in further danger.

The schedule for Jan. 3 and the Speaker’s vote

The House is expected to conduct some housekeeping business for the tail end of the 117th Congress on the morning of Jan. 3 before it officially concludes sine die. 

Then at noon on Jan. 3, the constitutionally designated start of every congressional session, the House will start the 118th Congress.

After a call to order by the House clerk, a prayer and the Pledge of Allegiance, the clerk will order a quorum call — the first roll call action of the 118th Congress.

The next order of business will be electing the House Speaker. Typically, one leader from each party will give nominating speeches for each party nominee.

Then, the clerk takes a roll call vote, going down the list of every member of Congress who will each vocally cast a vote for Speaker. That process took around an hour for the Speakership election in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.

There will be no proxy votes. Not only have Republicans pledged to do away with pandemic-era remote voting rule, that procedure can only be used if the House has not adopted a rules package — which happens after the Speaker election and members take their oaths of office. The 2021 Speaker election didn’t have proxy votes, either.

What happens if no candidate wins a majority?

If no candidate wins a majority of votes for Speaker on the first ballot, House lawmakers will vote again and again until a Speaker is elected.

In the event of multiple ballots, the House will not necessarily continue late into the night. The last time there were multiple ballots, the House adjourned until the following day after four failed ballots. Adjourning also allows members time to negotiate and strike deals.

But the House will be able to do little else. Until a Speaker is elected, it can’t adopt a rules package governing procedure in the House. For House Republicans, uncertainty about the Speaker election has led to a delay in the conference choosing contested committee chairs.

Any long delay in selecting a Speaker could also affect staff operations for the House. Politico reported that guidance sent to House committees warned that payroll cannot be processed for staff if a House rules package is not adopted by Jan. 13.

Dire circumstances could lead to unusual procedures. Twice before, in 1949 and 1956, the House agreed to a resolution that allowed a Speaker to be elected by a plurality. That move was something of a last resort, though, and came after 59 and 129 failed ballots. A majority of the whole House would need to agree to that resolution.

Multiple Speaker ballots would put a marker in history

A Speaker election has not gone to a second ballot in nearly a century and has taken multiple ballots only 14 times, with 13 of those occurring before the Civil War.

The last time, in December 1923, it took nine ballots over three days before the House elected Republican Frederick Gillett (Mass.) to a third term as Speaker. 

Gillett won the Speakership after reaching an agreement with progressive Republicans that the House would consider and debate changes to the House rules — a situation not so different than the one McCarthy is facing today.

The longest Speakership election ever, in 1856, lasted two months and took 133 ballots before Rep. Nathaniel Banks (Mass.) was elected Speaker.

If not McCarthy, then who?

McCarthy allies note there is not a public viable alternative to him for Speaker and argue that his detractors are merely saber rattling to get leverage for concessions on rules and priorities.

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) is running as a protest challenger to McCarthy, but not even his fellow McCarthy opponents think he is a viable GOP alternative for Speaker.

McCarthy opponents have teased that there will be an alternative candidate for Speaker revealed at some point, but have declined to come together to name a consensus alternative, fearing backlash.

Rep. Steve Scalise (La.), whom Republicans elected to be House majority leader, is an obvious potential alternative to McCarthy. But Scalise is publicly backing McCarthy.

“Kevin’s going to get there, and he’s going to have a lot of meetings with members to make sure that we get this result on Jan. 3,” Scalise said before the House left for the holidays. 

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who challenged McCarthy to lead House Republicans in 2018, is a favorite of hard-line conservative Republicans. Gaetz has pushed a “Jordan for Speaker” message in recent days. Jordan, though, has also repeatedly said he supports McCarthy.

McCarthy detractors say there is no chance that a Democrat is elected Speaker. And while it is technically possible for a nonmember to be elected House Speaker, Good recently said that notion is “practically improbable.”

Some Republicans and Democrats have also teased the possibility of working together to elect a consensus GOP Speaker. But moderate GOP Rep. Don Bacon (Neb.) says he will only entertain that if McCarthy drops out of the race.

Arguments for and against McCarthy

Supporters of McCarthy argue that he has earned the position after leading House Republicans back to the majority through gains in both the 2020 and 2022 elections. They praise his “Commitment to America” plan for a GOP majority.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who has emerged as one of the most vocal McCarthy supporters, has also warned that any GOP alternative to McCarthy could be less conservative and give less leeway for hard-line conservatives like herself.

They also criticize any delays in House GOP oversight activities and worry about the precedent of denying their party leader for the past four years the post.

“If you can put all that work and dedicate your life and sacrifice your time, yourself, your family, only in the eleventh hour to have a knife in your back, nobody’s ever going to do that work again. It would set the worst precedent I can imagine politically,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) told The Hill in December.

But those opposed to McCarthy or withholding support for him argue that smaller-than-expected gains in the 2022 midterms should not be rewarded. They are pushing McCarthy to take even stronger stances and tactics against Democrats and the Biden administration, want a plan to balance the federal budget and favor rules changes that would empower individual members, among other demands.

Boebert recently said her “red line” for support is restoring any member’s ability to make a “motion to vacate the chair,” a move to force a vote on ousting the Speaker.

McCarthy over the weekend made a key concession on the point and lowered the threshold to five GOP members to make a move to vacate, down from a standard of a majority of the conference. But McCarthy critics have signaled that standard, along with his response on other measures, is not good enough.

Source: TEST FEED1

McCarthy reaches moment of truth in Speakership election

No more posturing, and no more wishful thinking: The House will vote for a Speaker on Tuesday afternoon, revealing whether House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) has the confidence of his conference to lead a new House GOP majority.

It is far from clear how the vote will play out. McCarthy faces vocal opposition from a handful of hardline Republicans threatening to derail his bid despite his bending to their requests, while his allies maintain they will vote for no one other than McCarthy.

If no candidate wins a majority of votes on the first ballot, it will be the first time in a century that the House has gone to multiple votes for Speaker. With 222 Republicans to 212 Democrats, McCarthy can afford to lose just four votes, assuming every member votes for a candidate.

The 118th Congress kicks off at noon. After a prayer, the Pledge of Allegiance and a quorum call, the House will move straight into Speaker nomination speeches and a vote on who will hold the gavel.

McCarthy opponents for weeks have insisted that he does not have the support to be Speaker. While he won the House GOP Speaker nomination with 188 votes, another 31 went to Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and five voted for other candidates. 

Five House Republicans have strongly indicated they will not vote for McCarthy, and several more have withheld support for him. Biggs has estimated that around 20 Republicans will not vote for McCarthy.

Reasons for opposition are many. They include: disappointment at smaller-than-expected gains in the midterm elections, frustration at a McCarthy-aligned PAC getting involved in GOP primaries, demands for rules changes that would strip power from McCarthy and give more to rank-and-file members, a desire for a more aggressive stance on investigating the Biden administration and impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and a desire for a budget that significantly cuts federal spending. Opponents have also criticized McCarthy for his previous work with Democrats on spending measures.

At the core, the members withholding support for McCarthy say that those factors, as well as his approach to requests that were first made over the summer, add up to a lack of confidence.

“The problem is that people don’t trust Kevin McCarthy,” Scott Perry (R-Pa), chair of the House Freedom Caucus, told The Hill on Sunday. Perry has not said how he plans to vote on the Speakership as he continues to engage in negotiations.

Members had cautioned McCarthy months ago that the longer he waited to engage with the right flank, the more support he would lose.

“The fact that we are now approaching the 11th hour is not the fault, or is not the responsibility, of his detractors. It’s his responsibility, and the blame lies with him,” Perry said. 

McCarthy allies, meanwhile, have grown frustrated by the opposition that they see as posturing, and worry that some rules change demands could backfire by empowering Democrats.

Some members are planning to wear “O.K.” buttons – for “Only Kevin,” as a response to the “Never Kevin” group – on Jan. 3.

“We are prepared to vote for him for as long as it takes,” Reps. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) and Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), chair and vice chair of the more pragmatic House GOP Main Street caucus, wrote in a letter on Friday.

“We won’t reward chaos,” the two added, explaining that any support for rules changes that McCarthy opponents are demanding “will be taken off the table if Kevin McCarthy is not expediently elected Speaker of the House on January 3.”

Over the weekend, McCarthy offered some concessions to critics with a House rules package. 

One of those was lowering the threshold for a move to “vacate the chair” — forcing a vote on ousting the Speaker — to just five Republican members, rather than a threshold of at least half of the House GOP Conference that Republicans adopted in an internal rule in November. 

That procedural move made headlines when then-Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), made the motion in 2015, contributing to a House Freedom Caucus rebellion that ended with former GOP Speaker John Boehner (Ohio) resigning from Congress later that year. 

But that’s not good enough for Perry and several of his colleagues, who say that any single member should be able to make the motion. More moderate members argue that reverting to that standard could empower Democrats.

The House is also set to create a House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the “Weaponization of the Federal Government,” an apparent recognition of a request to form a “Church-style” committee to investigate alleged government abuses, in reference to a 1975 Senate select committee named for former Sen. Frank Church (D-Idaho) that investigated intelligence agencies.

But after a conference-wide call on the House rules on Sunday, a group of nine hardline conservatives led by Perry released a letter saying that McCarthy’s response to their request does not adequately address their requests.

“At this stage, it cannot be a surprise that expressions of vague hopes reflected in far too many of the crucial points still under debate are insufficient,” said the group of nine, which notably is in addition to the five members considered to be in the “Never Kevin” camp.

McCarthy allies also point out that there is no public viable GOP alternative to his candidacy for Speaker. They add that it would be unfair, and set a bad precedent for the Speakership, to reveal an 11th-hour candidate.

Biggs is running as a protest challenger to McCarthy, but not even his fellow McCarthy opponents think he is a viable GOP alternative to McCarthy for Speaker.

“A lot will be revealed on January 3,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), who has indicated he will not vote for McCarthy, said before Congress departed in December.

Some McCarthy detractors have suggested that a consensus alternative will emerge once it is clear that the GOP leader cannot win the gavel, but they have not all publicly rallied behind a potential alternative.

Rep. Steve Scalise (La.), who Republicans elected to be House majority leader, is an obvious potential alternative to McCarthy. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) has pushed Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) as a potential alternative. Both Scalise and Jordan, however, say they support McCarthy. 

The turmoil over the Speaker’s race has led to a delay in Republicans organizing their committees and electing chairs in contested races.

“It’s worth a few days or whatever time that it takes to get the best person to lead us, and I’m confident we’ll do that,” Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), who has said we will not support McCarthy, told The Hill before lawmakers left for the holidays.

The last time the Speaker vote went to multiple ballots was in December 1923, when holdouts pushing for rules changes forced nine ballots over three days before Republican Frederick Gillett (Mass.) won a third term as Speaker. 

Before that, 13 other Speaker elections went to multiple ballots, all before the Civil War. In the longest Speakership election, members cast 133 ballots over two months.

Source: TEST FEED1

Republicans to watch amid the House Speaker election

As the House convenes Tuesday to elect a new Speaker, Kevin McCarthy’s path to leadership could be blocked by a number of his fellow Republicans.

A range of GOP stakeholders inside and outside the chamber could play key roles in the lead-up to and during the vote and its aftermath.

If McCarthy cannot secure the support of a majority of those voting on Tuesday, the Speakership election will go to a second ballot. That has not happened in a century. With Republicans holding only 222 seats in the House, McCarthy could only afford to lose four votes and still win the speaker’s gavel if every House member votes.

Here are the Republicans to watch Tuesday as the House chooses its next speaker:

Kevin McCarthy

McCarthy addresses reporters during a press conference on Wednesday, December 14, 2022 to discuss the on-going budget negotiations. (Greg Nash)

McCarthy engaged in recent days with members of the Republican caucus to try to gather enough support to become Speaker, but he has not locked that up yet.

He has been trying to work with a group of five members who have directly said or strongly indicated they will not vote for him on Tuesday, along with Republican House members who have made demands of him in exchange for their support.

McCarthy has said some of these requests have his backing, including the creation of a 72-hour requirement between when the final text of a bill is released and when the House votes on it, as well as a proposal for House GOP to block legislation from Senate Republicans who supported the omnibus government funding bill late last month.

He has also agreed to a rule that allows for five House Republicans to make a motion to “vacate the chair,” which would launch a vote to remove the Speaker. House rules have required a majority of a party to support the motion for a vote on removing the Speaker to occur. But some Republicans had pushed for allowing a single member to make the motion.

Biggs, Gaetz, Good, Norman, Rosendale

From left to right: Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.), Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.). (AP Photos)

Republican Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.), Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.) have been the most adamant about not supporting McCarthy, and reportedly plan to vote as a bloc on McCarthy’s candidacy.

The five could be enough to deny McCarthy victory, at least on the first ballot, or possibly altogether if McCarthy cannot organize a winning coalition.

McCarthy told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in December that he expects they will come around “in the end” but acknowledged they have not moved from their position as their talks have continued.

Biggs challenged McCarthy to be the Republicans’ choice for Speaker in November. McCarthy easily won in a closed-door vote, 188 to 31, but Biggs’ challenge demonstrated McCarthy’s lack of full support, at least at the time.

Gaetz wrote in an op-ed in The Daily Caller last month that McCarthy “has no ideology” and would cave “to liberals.” Norman told The Hill earlier this month that he does not plan to vote for McCarthy but is still meeting with him, adding that “miracles do happen.”

Lauren Boebert

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) arrives to meet with fellow Republicans behind closed doors as Republicans hold its leadership candidate forum at the Capitol in Washington, Monday, Nov. 14, 2022. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) has not declared she is absolutely opposed to McCarthy becoming Speaker, but she has drawn a line in the sand for what he must agree to in order to win her support.

Boebert said at a Turning Point USA conference last month that she would not support his bid unless he agrees to the “accountability mechanism” allowing members to make a motion to removing the Speaker.

The rule governing a motion to vacate under Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has required a majority of a party’s caucus members to support its use. Boebert has said that revising the rule is her “red line” for supporting McCarthy and that all negotiations must start with that.

Crane and Ogles

Reps.-elect Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) and Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) speak at rallies. (AP Photos)

Reps.-elect Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) and Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) will have their first day in Congress on Tuesday and could almost immediately play a key role in determining McCarthy’s fate. The two, along with five other GOP lawmakers separate from the group of five potentially operating as a bloc, signed a letter sent to Republican colleagues in December outlining a list of demands they expect from a future House speaker.

The demands include the ability to force a vote on removing the speaker, declining to raise the debt ceiling without having a plan to cap spending and balance the federal budget in 10 years, and banning House Republican leadership and leadership-affiliated PACs from getting involved in primaries.

The sitting House members who signed the letter are members of the House Freedom Caucus, which is made up of some of the most conservative members of the Republican conference.

Scott Perry and the Freedom Caucus

Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) speaks to reporters as he arrives for a House Republican Leadership Forum for the 118th Congress on Monday, November 14, 2022. (Greg Nash)

Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), chair of the House Freedom Caucus and one of the signers of the letter that Crane and Ogles backed, stood by the letter as members of Congress left Washington ahead of the holidays.

“Nothing’s changed. Requests are still there,” he said.

Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.), another signer of the letter, issued a separate statement noting that the letter is not aimed only at McCarthy but anyone wishing to become Speaker.

But caucus members are not united on whether to support McCarthy. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has been one of McCarthy’s most vocal backers, arguing that an alternative to him could be less supportive of the far-right members of the conference.

Gaetz has called on another Freedom Caucus member, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), to run for Speaker, but Jordan has fully thrown his support behind McCarthy.

Perry was also part of the group that threatened to “thwart” any legislative proposals from Republican senators who voted for the government funding bill.

Steve Scalise

House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) addresses reporters following the House Republican Leadership Election for the 118th session of Congress on Tuesday, November 15, 2022. (Greg Nash)

One of the challenges facing McCarthy’s opponents has been the lack of a clear alternative who could be elected Speaker instead. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) would be an obvious choice.

Scalise, selected as House majority leader for when Republicans retake control of the chamber on Tuesday, has said he supports McCarthy, but he would be among — if not the most — plausible alternative if McCarthy is unable to get the necessary votes to win.

Scalise expressed confidence that McCarthy would prevail, when asked on Dec. 23 about speculation of him being another potential option.

“Kevin’s going to get there, and he’s going to have a lot of meetings with members to make sure that we get this result on January 3,” he said.

But Politico reported on Thursday that some allies of McCarthy have said Scalise could be doing more to help with McCarthy’s Speaker bid.

Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump announces he is running for president for the third time at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., Nov. 15, 2022. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

McCarthy criticized Trump in the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, but the two have returned to being close allies since then.

Trump voiced support for McCarthy becoming the Speaker in an interview with Breitbart in December. He said he warned the group of five GOP House members who are opposing McCarthy that they are “playing a very dangerous game.”

“Look, I think this: Kevin has worked very hard,” Trump said. “I think he deserves the shot. Hopefully, he’s going to be very strong and going to be very good and he’s going to do what everybody wants.”

He pointed to the situation following former House Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) resignation in 2015, which led the party to eventually turn to former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). Trump said Ryan was a “disaster” for the party.

Source: TEST FEED1

McCarthy struggles to win support for Speaker with hours until floor showdown

With less than 24 hours before the House is set to vote on a Speaker, Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has yet to lock up the votes to secure the gavel.

McCarthy has made some late concessions and overtures to the right flank that weaken his own power and aim to address their requests to take a more aggressive stance against Democrats and the Biden administration.

But those who have declared opposition to him are not wavering, and critics who have not declared how they intend to vote are showing signs of stronger resistance to McCarthy rather than support for him.

“The fact that we are now approaching the 11th hour is not the fault, or is not the responsibility, of his detractors. It’s his responsibility, and the blame lies with him,” House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who has not said how he plans to vote on the floor, told The Hill on Sunday.

Additionally, the Club for Growth, an influential conservative group, is urging opposition to a Speaker candidate who does not make other concessions — measures that McCarthy is unlikely to support.

With 222 incoming Republicans to 212 Democrats, McCarthy can afford to lose only four GOP votes if every member votes for a Speaker candidate.

Despite the uncertainty, McCarthy has started moving into the Speaker’s office in the Capitol that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) moved out of over the holidays.

But there is no name plate, yet, above the entrance to the Speaker suite.

As he walked out of that office on Monday, reporters asked McCarthy whether he has the votes to win the gavel on Tuesday.

“And take away all the excitement?” McCarthy responded, according to a video posted by NBC.

McCarthy added: “I think we will have a good day tomorrow.”

The GOP Leader met with some of his strongest supporters and fiercest detractors in the Speaker’s office on Monday evening ahead of the Tuesday floor showdown.

Coming out of McCarthy’s office, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said he hopes McCarthy can win on the first ballot.

“We’ll have a conversation tomorrow. It’s always better when they’re here, I think with some of the freshman,” Jordan said. House Republicans are set to have an internal conference meeting Tuesday morning.

McCarthy offered some late concessions to those withholding support for him over the weekend, including allowing a move to “vacate the chair” — meaning to force a vote on ousting the Speaker — with the approval of five Republican members, rather than a threshold of at least half of the House GOP Conference.

But his critics maintain that the measure, which was neutered by Democrats after they took control of the House, should be brought back needing only one member to make the motion as a check on the Speaker’s power, as it did for more than a century. A use of the motion in 2015 contributed to pushing former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) to resign later that year.

A House rules package released Sunday also included plans to create a House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the “Weaponization of the Federal Government,” an apparent recognition of a right-flank request to form a “Church-style” committee to investigate alleged government abuses, in reference to a 1975 Senate select committee named for former Sen. Frank Church (D-Idaho) that investigated intelligence agencies.

And in a letter to colleagues on Sunday, McCarthy pledged to use his power to assign members to committee panels to “ensure they more closely reflect the ideological makeup of our conference,” addressing another concern of the right flank.

Nine House Republicans signaled in a Sunday letter that they are still unhappy, though.

“At this stage, it cannot be a surprise that expressions of vague hopes reflected in far too many of the crucial points still under debate are insufficient,” the members said in the letter, led by Perry.

The group of nine is notably separate from a group of five “Never Kevin” Republicans who have previously said they will not support him, bringing the ranks of potential opposers to at least 14 GOP members.

One point mentioned in the letter is that McCarthy has not committed to staying neutral in GOP primaries. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a McCarthy-aligned PAC, spent millions to boost preferred candidates in the 2022 midterms.

The Club for Growth released a “Key Vote” alert on Monday also urging members to vote against any candidate who does not support certain reforms, echoing the concern about McCarthy’s primary involvement without mentioning him by name.

“Congressional Leadership Fund should be prohibited from spending money or providing grants to any super PAC to engage in open Republican primaries or against any Republican incumbent. Additionally, the Speaker shall not be permitted to solicit funds or direct any other super PAC to oppose a Republican incumbent,” the alert said.

Perry has also started being more vocally critical of McCarthy online and in comments to The Hill, bringing up the fact that conservatives had first raised rules change requests over the summer, and pointing out his past work with Democrats on spending measures. 

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), another member who has withheld support for McCarthy without saying how he plans to vote, offered another cryptic message on Twitter Monday afternoon.

“Some people who run campaigns against the swamp sure are quick to wilt in the face of challenges (to different degrees) to that very swamp,” Roy said. 

Through all the vocal opposition, though, McCarthy still has a key advantage: There is no viable GOP alternative for Speaker.

Allies and supporters of McCarthy have signaled that they will not vote for any alternative to McCarthy as long as he is still seeking the post.

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) has mounted a protest challenge to McCarthy for Speaker, but not even his fellow McCarthy detractors think he has a serious shot at the gavel.

Incoming House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), the most obvious potential McCarthy alternative, and Jordan, a favorite of conservatives, have both said they plan to support McCarthy.

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), one of the strongest McCarthy opponents, on Monday predicted that a “true” conservative would emerge to challenge McCarthy after the first failed ballot.

“I think you’ll see on the second ballot an increasing number of members vote for a true candidate who can represent the conservative center of the conference, can motivate the base,” Good said on Fox News.

Source: TEST FEED1

Four cyber concerns looming in the new year

Cyberattacks have surged in recent years, with the health care system and other critical sectors increasingly coming under digital assault as the threat of malware like ransomware and foreign spyware continues to evolve.

Last year in particular saw officials and lawmakers renew their focus on cybersecurity and seek to secure the country’s critical sectors from rising cyber threats. The issue is expected to continue to take center stage in the coming year, as many of those threats are still escalating while the cyber sector is confronting an ongoing workforce shortage in its efforts to bolster the U.S.’s digital defenses.

Here are four cyber concerns expected to take priority in 2023.

Threats to critical sectors

The financial, energy and health care sectors are all facing a skyrocketing number of hacks. Cyberattacks have robbed companies in those industries of hundreds of millions of dollars, exposed data and even disrupted essential services, as when a ransomware attack forced the Colonial Pipeline to shut down in 2021, causing gas shortages in several states.

The health care sector in particular has seen a rise in cyberattacks in the last few years, particularly ransomware attacks targeting hospitals in order to gain access to sensitive information like patient data or medical research and technology. Increasing threats to the sector have set off alarm bells in Washington, with Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, warning this fall that cyberattacks could lead to delays in treatment and even patients’ deaths.

Officials have already stepped up their efforts to protect critical sectors from those evolving threats, and have indicated that doing so will remain a top priority this year.

Anne Neuberger, White House deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology, said in October that there’s been a “relentless focus” by the Biden administration on securing such sectors — especially those where disruptions could lead to hazards, such as in hospitals, the oil and gas industry and companies that transport chemicals. 

“Our concerns have evolved to where we’re most concerned about degradation or disruption of critical services,” Neuberger said.

But lawmakers and industry experts have called for federal agencies to further increase their efforts in recent months.

Securing critical infrastructure like the energy and health care sectors plays a key part in mitigating cyber risks, said Josephine Wolff, an associate professor of cybersecurity policy at the Tufts University Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.

“All of those are areas where I would say there’s still a lot we could be doing to try and shore up defenses and build in more resilience,” Wolff said. 

In a letter addressed to the Department of Health and Human Services in August, Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) and Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) expressed appreciation for moves the Biden administration has taken to respond to cyber threats to the health care sector — but said more action was necessary.

“We remain concerned, however, about the lack of robust and timely sharing of actionable threat information with industry partners and the need to dramatically scale up the Department’s capabilities and resources. With cyber threats growing exponentially, we must prioritize addressing the [health care and public health] sector’s cybersecurity gaps,” they wrote.

Zinet Kemal, a cloud security engineer at Best Buy, said the government should continue to work with industry leaders to identify and address vulnerabilities found in critical sectors as well as to create contingency plans for responding to cyber incidents.

“I think they need to work with the industry to ensure that the systems are protected against cyber threats,” she said.

Ransomware attacks

Recent years have seen an especially dramatic spike in ransomware attacks, particularly targeting the health care and financial sectors.

Last year alone, ransomware groups caused outages in multiple hospital systems, temporarily closed schools in parts of the U.S., carried out multimillion-dollar hacks on a number of companies and drove Costa Rica to declare a state of emergency in May as a barrage of attacks impacted its government services.

Tackling ransomware at home and abroad is also expected to take precedence this year as the U.S. and its allies have come together to counter the heightened threat. In 2021, the Biden administration, along with several other countries, launched its first annual initiative intended to counter ransomware globally. 

In November, the White House held its second International Counter Ransomware Initiative Summit, in which it invited more than 30 countries to discuss steps they can take to curb the rise of ransomware globally.

“Ransomware is a pocketbook issue that impacts thousands of companies and individuals every year globally,” the White House said in a press release.

During the summit, the countries laid out several initiatives, including establishing an international counter-ransomware task force, actively sharing information between the public and private sectors and taking joint steps to stop ransomware actors using the cryptocurrency ecosystem. 

The ransomware task force, which is led by Australia, is expected to become operational in January, CyberScoop reported.

Australia is leading the task force “because they’ve had some very major ransomware attacks,” including one that targeted one of the country’s largest private health insurers, a senior administration official told CyberScoop.

Wolff said while ransomware will certainly remain a hot topic this year, she thinks the U.S. and its allies have to some extent reached their capacity when it comes to addressing the issue, unless other major countries like Russia decide to join in and support the initiative.

“I think what we’re most likely to see with that initiative is countries like the United States and the United Kingdom trying to help countries with less capacity to investigate ransomware and build up their capabilities,” she said.

Foreign spyware

Foreign spyware garnered attention last year following controversy surrounding the embattled Israeli spyware firm NSO Group, which was blacklisted by the Department of Commerce in 2021 for allegedly facilitating unlawful surveillance used against government officials, journalists, dissidents and human rights activists.

Congress has since taken steps to address the allegations. In July, the House Intelligence Committee included a provision in the Intelligence Authorization Act authorizing the director of national intelligence to prohibit the U.S. intelligence community from buying and using foreign spyware. 

The bill would also allow the president to impose sanctions on foreign government officials and firms that target U.S. officials with spyware. The legislation was included in the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act and has since become law. 

Advocates against foreign spyware hope more will be done in the future to address the matter as threats continue to evolve.

Mike Sexton, a senior policy adviser for cyber at Third Way’s national security program, said although some actions were taken last year to counter foreign spyware, there’s still a lot more progress to be made.

“I think blacklisting NSO Group in 2021 was really good, but I think it’s important not to rest on our laurels on this,” Sexton said.

Rising cyber threats have brought new urgency to a long-time labor shortage in the industry as both federal agencies and private companies have scrambled to fill key cyber roles.

Labor shortage

The industry has sought to address the shortage by investing in workforce development, and is expected to continue doing so moving forward.

The Department of Homeland Security has said that addressing the shortage is a top priority for the agency. Previously, it tackled the issue in 2021 by conducting a 60–day hiring sprint to hire cybersecurity professionals. Out of the 500 job offers the department sent out, the department was able to hire nearly 300 new cyber workers.

National Cyber Director Chris Inglis, who’s expected to retire in the coming months, has also pushed the government to hire more tech and cyber workers. 

“We have been successful in filling two-thirds of the jobs that have the word cyber and IT in it, and that’s the good news,” Inglis said during a cyber event held in October. 

However, he said there was still a long way to go because at the time, one-third of those jobs were still vacant.

Inglis also hosted a cyber workforce and education summit in July, during which participants pledged to improve diversity and inclusion in the cyber field as well as build a national cyber workforce and education strategy. 

Experts said to expect more government funding designed to help with workforce training and educational initiatives, including partnering up with the private sector and universities to increase the pipeline of cyber workers. 

“To address this gap, in the future, I think it’s important for organizations and governments to invest in training and education programs that develop the next generation of cybersecurity professionals,” Kemal said.

Source: TEST FEED1