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Biden faces questions over whether he can beat DeSantis

President Biden is entering the new year riding high off a better-than-expected midterm election performance for his party that has improved his political standing while damaging his chief GOP rival — former President Trump.

Yet Biden also enters the new year with lingering questions over his age and his overall political strength — most notably whether he can defeat a different Republican in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis if he is the GOP nominee in 2024.

DeSantis has said he’s focused on his job in Florida and, unlike Trump, he’s not officially in the 2024 race. But he’s expected to come under pressure to get in as Republicans look for a stronger candidate in 2024 than the former president. 

While Trump’s image has been tarnished by the GOP’s disappointing midterm elections, DeSantis coasted to reelection in Florida as Republicans overall in his state performed strongly.

If Biden had a good midterm, DeSantis had a great one, and he’d represent a very different kind of challenge than Trump for Biden — if he were to defeat Trump in a GOP primary.

Cristina Antelo, a Democratic strategist who runs Ferox Strategies, said Biden’s age remains a concern among Democratic voters, despite a string of legislative accomplishments by Democrats under Biden — and his party’s midterm performance.

Biden, 80, would finish a second term at the age of 86. Running against DeSantis, 44, instead of the 76-year-old Trump could draw a different kind of contrast for Biden. 

“It’s crazy to me that Biden is polling so low, even with Dems, considering how much has been accomplished in these first two years,” Antelo said. “But, yes, Dems seem worried that ‘an old white guy’ at the top of the ticket just isn’t going to cut it if the threats to democracy that Trump embodies aren’t on the ballot.”

Biden’s rise in 2020 had a lot to do with Trump. A big part of his campaign was that he was the Democrat best positioned to end the Trump presidency. Biden himself said he likely would not have run for the White House that year if Trump had not been president.

Polls continue to show Biden with an edge over Trump, but the head-to-head polls matching up Biden and DeSantis give Republicans reason for optimism.

A Marquette Law School poll released on Dec. 1 found Biden and DeSantis tied in a 2024 match-up, with 42 percent of registered voters picking each candidate.

The poll showed Biden 10 points ahead of Trump, suggesting the incumbent president might be a bigger favorite against his old opponent.

Most Democrats, at least on the record, express confidence in Biden regardless of who his opponent is, though some do acknowledge DeSantis could have some advantages compared to Trump.

“Not having Trump’s insurmountable baggage is a huge advantage for DeSantis, but it remains TBD whether he possesses Trump’s talents as a candidate,” said Bruce Mehlman, a former assistant secretary at the Commerce Department under former President George W. Bush.

Other polls give credence to Democratic fears about Biden’s age.

A recent USA Today-Suffolk University poll found that 50 percent of Americans want a president between 51 and 65 years old, while 25 percent want a president 35 to 50 years old. Only 8 percent said they wanted a president who is between the ages of 66 and 80.

Biden will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee in 2024 unless he decides against a run, or if his health does falter.

And a number of Democrats say he’ll be tough to defeat no matter who his GOP opponent is.

“In essence, it always comes down to can you motivate the base,” said Ivan Zapien, a former Democratic National Committee official.

He said it could be a tougher challenge for Biden against a non-Trump GOP nominee, but added that Biden “has proven that he can motivate the base very effectively and that’s a proof point that I think works to his advantage if he decides to run regardless of who he runs against.”

Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins said Biden has already proved his detractors wrong once with the coalition he has been able to build.

“President Biden has managed to unify the Democratic Party in a way that no Democrat could have predicted four years ago. He’s built a coalition of progressives and moderates that proved during the midterms can be a winning combination,” Hopkins said. “If I’m Ron DeSantis, I would think twice about running against Biden in this cycle.”

Marc Lampkin, a Republican lobbyist at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck and a former adviser to former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), said the midterm elections were less about personality than they were about issues, like the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. That helped Democrats and could continue to do so in 2024.

“In the midterm election, there were two competing narratives: There was the Republican narrative of inflation and referendum of Joe Biden. Democrats were talking about the Trump overhang, but also were able to talk to some key constituencies after the Dobbs decision,” Lampkin said, referring to the Supreme Court decision toppling Roe v. Wade.

Other Democrats say that no matter who Biden faces, he should focus on selling his own achievements.

“The president needs to spend his time selling the accomplishments that he has had and then talking about what he would do if he’s reelected,” said Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic lobbyist and donor.

“I think for this reelection, or any reelect, you have to worry about things you can control. I don’t know that they can really control what happens on the Republican side,” he added. “As we’ve seen with Trump from the day he started, people underestimate him.”

Source: TEST FEED1

GOP lawmaker teases 'true' conservative alternative to McCarthy ahead of Speaker vote

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) predicted on Monday that a “true” conservative would emerge to challenge House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in his quest to become Speaker and doubled down on a promise to vote against McCarthy one day ahead of the leadership election.

“I think you’ll see on the second ballot an increasing number of members vote for a true candidate who can represent the conservative center of the conference, can motivate the base,” Good said on Fox News.

McCarthy, who launched an unsuccessful bid for Speaker in 2015, has been busy trying to nail down the 218 votes necessary for victory. But dissent from some on his right has taken his campaign for the position down to the wire.

In advance of the Speaker vote on Tuesday, McCarthy has offered key concessions to his detractors. That includes allowing a move to “vacate the chair,” which would trigger a vote on the ousting of the Speaker, with the approval of just five Republicans.

McCarthy also greenlighted the creation of a House subcommittee on the “Weaponization of the Federal Government,” which would increase scrutiny on the Biden administration and federal agencies.

Good did not offer a suggestion for who might be the alternative to McCarthy. While Good said he expected “10 to 15” members to vote for Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) on the first ballot, he did not name another candidate who could emerge to challenge McCarthy on the second ballot.

In response to a question about who that person might be, Good said he would “resist” naming someone, as that person would face retaliation.

“If we were to put forth a name right now or over the last few weeks, that person would have suffered all the attacks and retaliation,” Good said. “You’ll see that name tomorrow on the second ballot.”

McCarthy, who needs a majority of voting members to become Speaker, can afford to lose no more than four Republicans because of the GOP’s slim 222 to 212 majority.

Source: TEST FEED1

Former GOP aide on Speaker vote: ‘Self-serving’ Republicans would make ‘mockery’ of Congress

A former Republican aide to two past GOP House Speakers said in an op-ed published Monday that a “self-serving” move by a small group of Republicans to potentially deny House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) the Speakership would make a “mockery” of the institution of Congress. 

Brendan Buck, a communications consultant who previously worked for former Speakers John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), said in The New York Times op-ed that the “usual pageantry” and “fleeting” hope that the incoming Congress will be better than the last could be “immediately dashed” if the House fails to choose a Speaker on the first ballot. 

Buck said a “small band of Republican misfits” have pledged to vote against McCarthy for the Speakership, and only five Republican votes against him are needed to deny him the role. He said McCarthy should do “all within reason” to secure the votes he needs to win on the first ballot. 

“Otherwise, a self-serving power play by a small group of Republicans threatens to make a mockery of the institution and further cement the notion that the party is not prepared to lead,” Buck wrote. 

McCarthy needs to win a majority of the House members present and voting to become Speaker, but the GOP’s narrow majority in the body means he cannot afford more than four votes with all 222 GOP members are voting. 

A group of at least five Republicans have expressly said or strongly indicated they would not support McCarthy for Speaker, which would be enough to deny him victory at least on the first ballot. A larger number of Republicans have demanded McCarthy agree to certain rules to win their support.

McCarthy offered a series of concessions to his detractors in the House rules package proposed on Sunday, but it remains unclear if that will be enough to secure him the necessary support.

Buck noted that the last time the House did not choose a Speaker on the first ballot was a century ago and that it has happened only once since the Civil War. He said a failed vote would weaken McCarthy or whoever the next Speaker is. 

“But no matter who ultimately emerges as the top House Republican, the prolonged spectacle would leave the Republican majority hopelessly damaged from the start, along with the institution of the House itself,” he said. 

Buck said the House cannot conduct any other business until a Speaker is chosen, and the selection process can be time-consuming even when it goes smoothly. 

He said the House would allow members to make speeches in favor of a candidate if McCarthy does not win on the first ballot, which he said could “unleash a circus” in which GOP opponents to McCarthy question his fitness for the job on the floor. 

Buck also predicted that Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), who is mounting a bid against McCarthy, would not win the leadership role and instead another Republican would be elected if McCarthy fails.

“But the agitators’ objective isn’t to win the speakership for one of their own; it is to weaken Mr. McCarthy or whoever emerges as the next speaker of the House. The embarrassment indeed may be the point,” Buck wrote.

Source: TEST FEED1

Hope Hicks to aide on Jan. 6: ‘We all look like domestic terrorists now’

Former White House aide Hope Hicks told a fellow aide in text messages during the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection that “We all look like domestic terrorists now” as Trump supporters stormed the Capitol.

Texts released by the House select committee investigating that day show Hicks texting with Julie Radford, former chief of staff to Ivanka Trump, as the violence unfolded. 

“In one day he ended every future opportunity that doesn’t include speaking engagements at the local proud boys chapter,” Hicks said, apparently referring to former President Trump. 

Radford responded “Yup,” seemingly agreeing. 

“And all of us that didn’t have jobs lined up will be perpetually unemployed,” Hicks said, also saying she is “so mad and upset,” adding “We all look like domestic terrorists now.”

“Oh yes I’ve been crying for an hour,” Radford replied. 

Hicks texted that former White House Director of Strategic Communications Alyssa Farah Griffin, who resigned about a month before the attack, looked like a “genius.” 

The two women also discussed the resignation of Stephanie Grisham, who served as chief of staff to former first lady Melania Trump. Radford texted that Grisham’s decision seemed “self serving.” 

Grisham has emerged as a significant critic of the Trump administration in the nearly two years since the end of his presidency. 

The Jan. 6 committee has released many materials and transcripts with witnesses over the past week as it has wrapped up its work ahead of the conclusion of this session of Congress. The committee completed its final report last month, referring four criminal charges against former President Trump to the Justice Department. 

The criminal referrals are nonbinding, but the committee’s action marked the first time a congressional committee has recommended a former president face criminal charges.

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump, McCarthy, Biden: Six political storylines that will shape 2023

After a 2022 that saw Democrats celebrate passing key parts of their agenda and defy expectations in the midterms, the next year is set to bring about change in Congress and set the table for another big election year.

Tuesday will see the swearing in of a divided Congress. The 2024 presidential field will take shape as Republicans mull whether to take on former President Trump, while President Biden’s own future takes center stage for Democrats. And the Supreme Court could once again reshape the political arena with major rulings.

Here are six storylines to watch that will shape the year ahead.

Trump’s place in the GOP 

Former President Donald Trump enters 2023 as politically vulnerable as he’s been since leaving the White House two years ago.

Trump’s highest profile midterm endorsements flopped, recent polls have shown many voters are ready to move on and his 2024 candidacy has thus far been marred by controversies around his dinner with a white nationalist and calls to suspend the Constitution to redo the 2020 election.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has made clear he’s ready to move past Trump, predicting a crowded 2024 presidential field and describing Trump’s clout as “diminished.”

Trump is also facing the prospect of legal peril heading into the new year, with the Justice Department investigating the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and his handling of classified materials that he took with him to his Mar-a-Lago estate after leaving the White House.

At the same time, Trump is the only declared candidate in the 2024 field, and he retains a formidable and energetic base that gives him a solid floor of support in a GOP primary. He also has plenty of allies on Capitol Hill, including House Republican leadership.

Of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump over Jan. 6, only two will be in the next Congress after the rest either retired or lost primaries to Trump-aligned challengers.

Some in the party worry a third Trump presidential nomination could cost the GOP a shot at the White House in 2024. The battle within the GOP over Trump’s future will hover over nearly all the party does in 2023.

The rise of DeSantis

For Republicans hoping to move past Trump, all eyes in 2023 will be on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

DeSantis’ star rose in the conservative movement in 2022 like few others as he became a prominent foil to the Biden administration on COVID-19, LGBTQ+ issues and immigration. And his re-election romp in November cemented his status as a political force in Florida.

Many Republicans seeking a viable alternative to Trump believe DeSantis can carry on the former president’s brand of politics without all the baggage. A recent USA Today-Suffolk University poll found 56 percent of GOP and GOP-leaning voters would back DeSantis, compared to 33 percent who would support Trump.

Experts believe DeSantis could announce a 2024 bid sometime this summer after the Florida legislative session is out. 

If he does so, DeSantis will face growing scrutiny as a candidate for national office. Trump is likely to go on the attack, and Democrats would almost certainly highlight DeSantis’ comments on vaccines and policies targeting discussion of gender and sexuality in the classroom to paint him as unfit for higher office.

Trump administration veterans such as former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley may also get into the 2024 contest, putting further pressure on DeSantis to solidify himself among voters outside of Florida and adding to the odds that a fractured field would ultimately benefit Trump.

Biden’s age and strength with Democrats

President Biden is entering 2023 with significant momentum after a slew of legislative achievements – many bipartisan – during his first two years in office.

Biden has said he will decide early in the new year about a re-election bid, but many Democrats and officials around the White House expect the president to seek another term.

Despite his successes, Biden will face questions, including from some in his own party.

Many candidates steered clear of Biden ahead of the midterms as Democrats overperformed expectations. He is 80 and is prone to the occasional high-profile gaffe, such as when he called out a congresswoman at a September White House event who’d died months earlier. 

Biden will also have to navigate a divided Congress for the next two years, making the odds of any major legislative achievements slim and testing his foreign policy on matters like support for Ukraine. And the GOP-led House is likely to go on the attack, probing his administration over its withdrawal from Afghanistan, its immigration policies and potentially Hunter Biden’s financial dealings.

Polls still show many voters do not want to see Biden run for another term. A CNN poll conducted in December found 59 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would like to see someone other than Biden be the party’s 2024 nominee. 

But Biden and his team have spent the last several years defying conventional wisdom and punditry, and believe strongly that his old-school brand of politics resonates with voters, especially outside of the Washington, D.C., bubble.

If in 2023 Biden is able to navigate a divided Congress, continue to strengthen the economy and avoid a recession while maintaining support at home and abroad for Ukraine, he will have a strong case that he is the only choice for Democrats to put atop the ballot in 2024.

McCarthy and the GOP

The year will begin with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) trying to win the Speaker’s gavel, something that has been no easy task in the weeks leading up to the new Congress.

McCarthy’s strength with his own caucus will be put to the test on Jan. 3. Even days before the vote, McCarthy still does not appear to have the 218 votes needed to secure the speakership as he scrambles to make concessions that appeal to hardline conservatives.

Whether it is McCarthy or some alternative candidate who has yet to emerge who holds the Speaker’s gavel, the year in Congress will be shaped largely by how Republicans govern in the House with a very slim majority.

McCarthy has pledged to remove certain Democrats, like Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), from committee assignments. He has vowed to investigate Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and create a select committee on China. And he has said Republicans will seek to roll back IRS funding and other key provisions of Democrats’ signature climate and health care bill that was passed in August.

The incoming House majority also features a number of skeptics of funding for Ukraine as it seeks to fend off a Russian invasion. The White House and top Senate Republicans have said they will continue to stand with Ukraine, but House GOP opposition could complicate matters.

Strategists and donors believe the House GOP majority must show the party is capable of governing, not merely opposing Biden, in order to create a strong argument for Republicans to retake the White House in 2024.

House Democrats begin life after Pelosi 

For the first time in 20 years, Democrats will be led in the House by someone other than Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who will remain in Congress but will not serve in leadership.

It is a remarkable changing of the guard for a party that will also be grappling with serving in the minority for the first time since 2017.

Hakeem Jeffries, the 52-year-old New Yorker, will be tasked with managing a fractious caucus with diverse views, including a left-wing that has grown in numbers and influence in recent years. 

Democrats will also be tasked with filling the fundraising void left by Pelosi, who was prodigious in her ability to bring in money for the party as its leader. 

Jeffries and the rest of the revamped House Democratic leadership team will narrowly be in the minority, serving as a foil to the GOP majority and defending the White House against investigations while pushing for potential areas of bipartisan agreement.

A subplot will be the growing influence of the progressive wing of the party, which has allies in the White House and which has steadily grown its numbers in the four years since members like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) were first sworn-in.

Supreme Court poised to shift landscape again

The Supreme Court delivered a political earthquake in 2022 when it overturned the abortion protections established under Roe v. Wade, and it could create additional seismic shifts in 2023 with a slew of high-profile cases on the docket.

The court, with a 6-3 conservative majority, already heard arguments but has yet to rule in a case over whether Alabama’s 2021 redistricting plan violates the Voting Rights Act by drawing just one majority-Black district. The eventual decision could reverberate for years to come through redrawn congressional districts and as voting rights emerges as a key pillar of the Democratic platform.

The justices similarly already heard arguments in Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency, a case in which the court must determine what is covered under the Clean Water Act. Depending on the ruling, it could have major ramifications for which properties are subject to certain environmental regulations at a time when the White House is focused on combating climate change.

The Supreme Court will hear arguments in the coming year on cases regarding affirmative action in college admissions that could reshape the discussion around that process for years to come, as well as arguments from plaintiffs who have claimed President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan is unconstitutional.

Should the latter challenge succeed, it would strike a blow against a key selling point for Biden to young voters and potentially create chaos as borrowers sort through whether or not they must continue repaying their loans.

The court is also expected in February to hear arguments from GOP-led states who sued the Biden administration to keep in place Title 42, a policy used since the onset of the pandemic to quickly expel migrants under the umbrella of public health. The court’s ruling will either keep the measure in place, or finally allow it to expire, potentially creating a political headache for Biden at the border.

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump tax returns raise alarms about fairness of US tax code

A preliminary review of the thousands of pages of Donald Trump’s tax returns released by a key Congressional committee on Friday confirms that the former president was using business losses in the tens of millions of dollars to reduce his annual tax liability, in some cases all the way down to zero. 

While one of Trump’s main businesses was found guilty of criminal tax fraud earlier this month, Trump himself has so far not been accused of doing anything illegal with his taxes and personal accounting.

But that’s raising more urgent questions about the fairness of the U.S. tax code and tax regulations, which number in the millions of words and in the case of Trump proved effectively unenforceable.

Advocates for tax reform say that a shift in mindset is needed, that a flawed conception of taxation as punitive and economically destructive is what allows for the sort of serial tax avoidance on display in the Trump tax returns.

“With the release of Donald Trump’s tax returns we have learned that he did not pay any federal income taxes [in some years],” Frank Clemente, director of tax advocacy group Americans for Tax Fairness, said in a statement to The Hill. 

Clemente said that Trump’s tax avoidance was made possible by “a loophole-ridden tax system in need of fundamental change.”

Trump on Friday touted his ability to use the tax code to his advantage, specifically praising his use of business losses to wipe out his own personal tax bill.

“The ‘Trump’ tax returns once again show how proudly successful I have been and how I have been able to use depreciation and various other tax deductions as an incentive for creating thousands of jobs and magnificent structures and enterprises,” Trump said in a statement.

In an apparent violation of IRS policy, which mandates that presidents receive regular audits, U.S. tax collectors were not auditing Trump on an annual basis, according to the Ways and Means Committee report released last week.

The reason for that isn’t clear, but the complexity of Trump’s financial situation and the tax laws that enable it may have been to be too much for the IRS to handle with resources dedicated to it.

“The individual tax return of the former President included the activities of hundreds of related and pass-through entities, numerous schedules, foreign tax credits, and millions of dollars in [net operating loss] carryforwards,” the Ways and Means report found.

The lone IRS agent assigned to one of Trump’s audits noted “that the lack of resources was the reason for not pursuing certain issues on the former President’s returns.”

“With over 400 flow-thru returns reported on the form 1040, it is not possible to obtain the resources available to examine all potential issues,” an internal IRS memo stated, according to the report.

While the committee dumped thousands of pages of documents on Trump’s taxes on Friday, it did not release IRS audit files along with them — a notable omission since the reason for obtaining and releasing Trump’s returns was supposed to be IRS oversight.

“Where are the IRS workpapers?” tax expert Steve Rosenthal said in an email to The Hill. “I thought the Ways and Means Committee was sharing Trump’s tax returns to allow the public to assess the IRS audit. The Joint Tax Committee reported the IRS audit was abysmal, which seems correct. But Joint Tax used the IRS workpapers to illuminate. We ought to see them also.”

The IRS is set to receive $80 billion in additional funding over the next decade, nearly doubling the operating budget of the agency on an annual basis and improving its capacity to audit complex business operations like those belonging to Trump.

But a structural discrepancy in the U.S. tax system between the way workers and business owners are taxed means that this new money for law enforcement might not be as effective as more legal reforms.

“Under the current system, American workers pay virtually all their tax bills while many top earners avoid paying billions in the taxes they owe by exploiting the system,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in 2021.

“At the core of the problem is a discrepancy in the ways types of income are reported to the IRS: opaque income sources frequently avoid scrutiny while wages and federal benefits are typically subject to nearly full compliance. This two-tiered tax system is unfair and deprives the country of resources to fund core priorities,” she said.

Tax reform advocates say it’s time to be taxing wages and capital in the same way.

“We should tax income from wealth the same as income from work. Very little of Trump’s money was earned by working—most was just ‘earned’ when he sold assets he inherited that had grown in value,” Amy Hanauer, director of the Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy, wrote in an editorial for Newsweek.

“This is backwards. Lawmakers should equalize these rates so that someone who wakes up at 6 a.m. and trudges to work in the rain doesn’t pay a higher rate than someone who sits in their inherited mansion watching the stock portfolio they were given grow,” she wrote.

Speaking in November, Fred Goldberg, who was IRS Commissioner under George H.W. Bush, said that simplifying the U.S. tax code has long been a moonshot for lawmakers.

“That’s been the holy grail for 40 years,” he said.

Beyond the policy questions raised by Trump’s labyrinthine returns, their release represents the latest chapter in years of political sparring over the former president’s business career and the tactics he used to amass his wealth and fame.

Throughout his first political career, Trump and his supporters pledged he would be a ruthless dealmaker on behalf of the American people. While Trump attributed his success to a tireless work ethic and unique ability to dominate negotiations, a series of financial records, media reports, and lawsuits exposed his heavy reliance on tax credits, bankruptcy litigation and fraud to build a real estate empire.

Democrats often criticized Trump for claiming to be a virtuosic businessman despite declaring bankruptcy four times and amassing billions of dollars in debt to finance a string of deals. They also sought Trump’s tax returns to assess the true nature of his wealth and the depth of his financial connections abroad.

“As the public will now be able to see, Trump used questionable or poorly substantiated deductions and a number of other tax avoidance schemes as justification to pay little or no federal income tax in several of the years examined,” said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) in a Friday statement.

Trump and his Republican supporters in Congress, however, defended the former president’s business practices as a basic part of operating in real estate. The former president anointed himself the “king of debt” in 2016 amid frequent criticism of his past bankruptcies, which he called an effective way of keeping his business going.

Source: TEST FEED1

McCarthy offers concessions to detractors with House Rules package

House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) offered some key concessions to his detractors in a House Rules package released by Republicans on Sunday, but it is still far from clear whether the moves will help him lock up the votes necessary to become Speaker on Jan. 3.

The compromises include allowing a move to “vacate the chair” — a move to force a vote on ousting the Speaker — with the approval of five Republican members, rather than a threshold of at least half of the House GOP Conference that Republicans adopted in an internal rule in November. 

The chamber is also set to create a House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the “Weaponization of the Federal Government,” an apparent recognition of a request to increase scrutiny on the Biden administration and intelligence agencies.

In a letter to GOP colleagues, McCarthy — speaking as “Speaker-Designate” — also addressed a request from conservatives to have more representation on committees.

“I will use my selections on key panels to ensure they more closely reflect the ideological makeup of our conference, and will advocate for the same when it comes to the membership of standing committees. This will facilitate greater scrutiny of bills from the start so they stand a greater chance of passing in the end,” the letter from McCarthy said.

The moves, though, have yet to move any of those whose resistance threatens to keep McCarthy from the gavel.

“I think what he’s trying to do is the bare minimum that he needs to try and get to where he can get the votes. And that’s not indicative of somebody that really wants to embrace new ideas, reject the status quo and unify all members in the conference,” Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), the chair of the House Freedom Caucus who has not committed to voting either for or against the GOP Leader, told The Hill on Sunday.

House Republicans held a New Year’s Day call on the Rules package on Sunday afternoon. After the call, a group of nine hardline conservatives released a letter saying that McCarthy’s response does not adequately meet their standard for the motion to vacate the chair, and said he did not address a request for leadership to not work to defeat conservatives in open primaries.

“At this stage, it cannot be a surprise that expressions of vague hopes reflected in far too many of the crucial points still under debate are insufficient,” the members said in the letter.

But they also added: “The progress made thus far has been helpful and should guide our thinking going forward.”

Members signing the letter included Perry along with Reps. Chip Roy (Texas), Paul Gosar (Ariz.), Dan Bishop (N.C.), Andy Harris (Md.) and Andrew Clyde (Ga.) and Reps.-elect Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.), Andy Ogles (Tenn.) and Eli Crane (Ariz.). That group notably does not include the five members considered to be “Never Kevin” opponents: Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.),  Matt Rosendale (Mont.) and Ralph Norman (S.C.).

McCarthy needs a majority of all those voting for a Speaker candidate on Jan. 3 to secure the post, and in a slim 222 to 212 majority, he can afford to lose only four GOP votes. A vote on the Rules package will happen only after the House elects a Speaker.

The Rules package also includes changes to rules regarding fiscal procedures, pandemic-era remote work, a review of ethics procedures and more.

Compromise on Vacate the Chair

A major issue for those withholding support or opposing McCarthy for Speaker of the House has been restoring any member’s ability to make a move to “vacate the chair,” which would force a vote on removing the Speaker. 

The procedural move, which conservatives say is a check on the Speaker’s power, made headlines when then-Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) made the motion in 2015, contributing to a House Freedom Caucus rebellion that ended in former GOP Speaker John Boehner (Ohio) resigning from Congress later that year. But when House Democrats took the majority, they allowed only the party leaders to make the motion.

House Republicans adopted a rule that allows the motion to be brought up if half the conference agrees, but McCarthy detractors want the required number to be lower.

After many negotiations, the proposed GOP Rules package lowers the threshold to bring up the move to five GOP members.

Perry, though, expressed disappointment at the proposal.

“Leaders like [former GOP Speakers] Paul Ryan [Wis.] and John Boehner, and everyone before them, were fine to work under those provisions. And now, suddenly, in 2022, the guy that wants to be Speaker wants to double down on what [House Speaker] Nancy Pelosi [D-Calif.] put in place and actually make it less accountable than even she did,” Perry said. “That doesn’t seem to be indicative of unity, and it doesn’t seem to be indicative of a person that’s asking his detractors to trust him.”

Select panels to target Biden administration, COVID origins, China

Republicans will bring a vote to form a select subcommittee on “Weaponization of the Federal Government” under the House Judiciary Committee.

The creation of the select subcommittee is a response to a request from GOP members who have withheld support for McCarthy to form a “Church-style” committee to investigate alleged government abuses, in reference to a 1975 Senate select committee named for former Sen. Frank Church (D-Idaho) that investigated intelligence agencies.

In his letter to colleagues, McCarthy used the same language, praising creation of a “Church-style Select Committee focused exclusively on exposing the weaponization of government against our citizenry, writ large.”

The committee is expected to have the same general structure as typical select committees, which means it has no individual subpoena itself. But the full Judiciary Committee, to be chaired by Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), does have subpoena authority and is expected to aggressively target the Biden administration.

Republicans are also keeping the select committee on the coronavirus pandemic under the House Oversight panel, but changing its charter to focus on the origins of the virus as well as the impacts of shutdowns. Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) is set to be chair of the full Oversight Committee.

Republicans are also set to vote in the first two weeks of the Congressional session to create the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party. McCarthy has announced Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) as his pick to chair the panel. 

Restoration of fiscal measures and new inflation analysis

Republicans are bringing back the Holman Rule, which allows members to propose amendments to appropriations bills that cut the salaries of specific federal workers or funding for specific programs down to $1, effectively defunding them. Some Republicans have suggested using the rule to defund certain investigations and officials in the FBI and Department of Justice or the Department of Homeland Security or officials who were involved in COVID-19 policies. 

The hardline conservative House Freedom Caucus had advocated to bring back the Holman Rule since the summer. It was also in the House Rules the last time there was a GOP majority in the 116th Congress.

In a new move, Republicans will direct the Congressional Budget Office to analyze the inflationary impact of legislation in addition to the budgetary impact — an issue that Republicans repeatedly hammered amid the inflation rate hitting a four-decade high in 2022.

The package also restores some longtime fiscal rules that Democrats removed, such as a three-fifths supermajority threshold to increase federal income taxes.

The Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation will also be directed to use “dynamic scoring,” a method that considers a bill’s impact on macroeconomic changes in the economy when evaluating its budgetary effect. Republicans previously used dynamic scoring to bolster their argument that tax cuts would not be a detriment to the economy because they would boost economic activity and therefore increase tax revenue.

“PAYGO,” the “pay-as-you-go” rule that requires legislation that would increase mandatory spending to be offset with spending cues or revenue increases, will be replaced with “CUTGO,” a “cut-as-you-go” variation first instituted by Republicans in 2011 that requires increases to be offset with equal or greater mandatory spending decreases. Both parties have frequently waived the rule to pass legislation in the past.

End to pandemic-era remote work rules

Gone are proxy voting and remote work rules instituted due to COVID-19, as well as fines for mask mandates. Members will no longer be able to participate in hearings remotely via videoconference, and only select non-government witnesses will be able to testify to committees remotely if they are unable to travel to Washington.

The House Sergeant at Arms sent a memo to House staff last week announcing a return to pre-pandemic norms of open public access to House office buildings and tours starting on Tuesday.

Procedural and ethics measures

In a blow to efforts from progressive staff to form labor unions in Congressional offices, which were approved in a House resolution in 2022, the Rules packages will “eliminate Democrats’ creation of House staff labor unions so that Congressional staff are accountable to the elected officials they serve,” a highlights summary of the rules said.

It also directs the House Ethics committee to adopt a process to accept complaints directly from the public, rather than having to go through the Office of Congressional Ethics (which will remain in place). The Ethics panel is also directed to conduct a bipartisan “comprehensive review” of House ethics rules and regulations.

The rules also fulfill another request from House conservatives to require at least 72 hours from the release of bill text before a final vote.

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump says 'abortion issue' responsible for GOP underperforming expectations in midterms

Former President Trump blamed the “abortion issue” for Republicans underperforming expectations in the 2022 midterm elections. 

Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday that many in the GOP handled the issue poorly, especially those who “firmly” insisted on no exceptions to bans on the procedure, including in instances of rape and incest. 

He also said he is not to blame for the party’s performance, responding to many in the GOP who have pointed to him as a reason for its losses. 

Republicans had hoped to make sweeping gains in both houses of Congress, but the party failed to win control of the Senate and only won a narrow majority in the House. Many Trump-backed candidates who were viewed as weaker general election choices than their primary opponents but more loyal to the former president lost in key congressional and gubernatorial races. 

Trump said Republican voters who pushed against abortion for decades “got their wish” from the Supreme Court in overturning Roe v. Wade and “just plain disappeared.” 

Trump ran on appointing justices to the court who would oppose abortion rights during his presidential campaign in 2016. He went on to appoint three justices to the court as president, all of whom were key votes in the court’s 5-4 decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade.

More than a dozen states moved to ban abortion, in many of them without exceptions for rape or incest, following the ruling.

Exit polls showed abortion placed second among the most important issues for voters in the midterms, closely behind inflation. Additionally, though Democrats trailed in the generic congressional ballot by a few points earlier in 2022, they began to close the gap after Roe was overturned. 

Trump also blamed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) for a super PAC he is aligned with pulling money out of key Senate races like New Hampshire and Arizona for candidates that the former president endorsed. Polls at the time showed the Republican candidates in these races trailing by wider margins than other key races. 

McConnell’s super PAC did return funding to the New Hampshire race shortly before Election Day as the margin tightened.

Source: TEST FEED1

Vice President Harris reaches 2023 at a crossroads

Vice President Harris finds herself at a crossroads as she enters her third year in office. 

After a bumpy start, which saw a string of missteps and a slew of staff departures, Harris has sought to steady the ship. 

Now, as President Biden is expected to run for reelection, Harris will need to support him in that effort while making her case that she’s able to step in at a moment’s notice and can follow him to the White House in 2028. 

“The vice president is at an interesting place,” said one Democratic strategist. “In some ways she still has to prove she can be president, but she also has to walk a fine line and show she’s supporting the president and not her own agenda.”

Harris’s approval ratings remain largely underwater. FiveThirtyEight and other surveys show her job performance ratings hovering around 40 percent, with nearly 50 percent disapproving, a metric strategists say is reflective of her standing within the party. 

“She does not have the type of dominant sway that most Democrats would want her to have in a few years as the standard-bearer of the party,” a second strategist said. “And this is the time for her to get there.” 

Harris may win a little more freedom and flexibility in 2023 with Democrats gaining a 51st seat. The vice president has spent much of her time at the Capitol over the past two years, casting a number of tiebreaking votes.

Democrats now control 51 seats, though one of those is held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.), who became an independent earlier this month. Sinema usually votes with Democrats on legislation, but she and fellow centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) may keep Harris in the Senate at times next year.

To date, the vice president has cast 26 pivotal tie breaking votes, including the passage of the Democrats’ sweeping climate and tax bill, as well as to approve many of Biden’s nominees, including Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.

At the halfway point of her tenure, even some of her supporters acknowledge Harris still lacks a defined portfolio and a brand. 

Basil Smikle, director of the public policy program at Hunter College who served as the executive director of the New York State Democratic Party, said some of the scrutiny and doubts surrounding Biden have diminished on the heels of the president’s legislative victories and the Democrats’ performance in the midterm elections. 

That took some pressure off Harris, he said.  

“But the question now is, will the vice president’s platform within the administration change substantively so she can be viewed as someone to whom the president can pass the torch?”

“Are there some policies that she can marshal that provide enough of a victory when the time comes? For her own trajectory, what are the key policy areas that she can tackle?” he added. 

During her first two years in office, Harris’s portfolio has included examining root causes of migration — a complicated task that has created political difficulties at times for the vice president.

She also was tasked with putting forward federal voting rights legislation, an issue she reportedly asked to take the lead on. And, in the wake of the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, she crisscrossed the country, visiting local leaders and reproductive rights activists. 

Harris has indicated that she will continue her focus on reproductive rights in the next two years, a move that will please the party’s base. Biden called for the Democratic-controlled Congress to codify Roe v. Wade, but Democrats did not have the votes in the Senate to pass such a bill. The vice president told NPR that she wants to keep trying.

“There is the work that we need to do to continue to appeal to the common sense and goodwill of members of the United States Congress to pass the Women’s Health Protection Act with a recognition that this issue is fundamentally about the issue of freedom and liberty,” she said in an interview that aired on Tuesday.

She added that other issues she will focus on over the next two years include uplifting small businesses in the U.S. and giving them greater support to access capital, as well as international issues like the U.S. relationship with Indo-Pacific nations.

But her policy portfolio has been a point of contention during her tenure.

In “The Fight of His Life,” a new book about Biden’s first two years of office, second gentleman Doug Emhoff reportedly complained about Harris’s policy portfolio, according to Politico. “Biden was annoyed,” one excerpt reads. “He hadn’t asked Harris to do anything he hadn’t done as vice president — and she’d begged him for the voting rights assignment.” 

The second strategist said the passage was indicative of a large problem for Harris: “She has to find an issue she owns.”

“She’s not the Recovery Act Person or the COVID person or the voting rights person. She could be the champion of women’s rights. But she and her team have to be dogged in approaching that. 

“She needs to create and demonstrate value not just to Biden but Democrats writ large and for the country,” the strategist said. “She needs to go figure out a thorny policy issue … something that can be packaged and sold to voters and turned into a narrative. 

“Biden was ‘Middle class Joe’, Barack Obama was ‘Hope and change.’ Ron DeSantis is ‘Own the libs,’ ” the strategist continued. “What’s her through line? What’s her thing?” 

Other Democrats argue Harris was an asset on the campaign trail during the midterm elections and will be a boost to her party in 2024.

“I suspect as much as she can be out on the road, she will be. I think she’s a pretty great asset to the president, particularly with the Democratic base, and to be out there rallying the troops is a good thing,” said David Thomas, who served as deputy director of legislative affairs for former Vice President Al Gore. 

Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic lobbyist and donor, said that getting out of Washington will help Harris build her own profile.

“I think you’ll see an entirely different kind of campaigning and time spent out there, which is why the one-seat majority makes a big difference,” he said. “Running a presidential campaign where one of the principals has to be near Washington is hard. Having that one seat majority and letting her get out and campaign more is good.”

Elmendorf said every vice president takes criticism. “I think the job is by definition a hard job and people always want to minimize the role of the vice president,” Elmendorf said. “I don’t find all of the criticism of her to be all that unusual.”

“I think she was an asset to getting him elected, she has been an asset so far and she will be an asset to the reelection, and I think having a better Senate majority will allow her to get out and demonstrate that.”

Source: TEST FEED1