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Trump warns DeSantis against 2024 White House bid, saying it wouldn't be 'good' for GOP

Former President Trump in a new interview warned Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) against running for president in 2024.

“I don’t know if he is running. I think if he runs, he could hurt himself very badly. I really believe he could hurt himself badly,” Trump told Fox News in an interview late Monday after a rally in Ohio. “I think he would be making a mistake. I think the base would not like it. I don’t think it would be good for the party.”

“Any of that stuff is not good. You have other people that possibly will run, I guess,” Trump added. “I don’t know if he runs. If he runs, he runs.”

The former president also suggested he knew unflattering information about DeSantis that he’d be willing to share if the two were to face off in a primary.

Despite those comments clearly trying to knock down DeSantis, Trump disputed that there was any kind of a “tiff” between the two men and called the Florida governor a “fine guy.”

Trump on Monday appeared to set up the launch of a third White House bid, telling supporters in Ohio that he would make a major announcement at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Nov. 15.

Trump has in recent days more freely gone after DeSantis, who is widely seen as perhaps Trump’s most viable rival in a potential GOP primary.

At a Pennsylvania rally on Saturday, Trump mocked the Florida governor as “Ron DeSanctimonious” as he read off polling numbers he had picked out that showed him leading among voters over potential primary challengers.

Trump also held a rally in Miami on Sunday but did not invite DeSantis, who is on the ballot for reelection on Tuesday. But at that rally, Trump urged supporters to vote for the governor, and Trump himself cast his ballot for DeSantis on Tuesday.

Source: TEST FEED1

DeSantis, Florida push back on DOJ monitoring of state election sites

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) administration is pushing back against the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) monitoring of three election sites in the state.

A lawyer for the Florida Department of State said in a letter to the DOJ on Monday that the department’s monitors would not be allowed in polling places in Miami-Date, Broward and Palm Beach counties, claiming the they were not permitted under Florida state law.

“[A]bsent some evidence concerning the need for federal intrusion, or some federal statute that preempts Florida law, the presence of federal law enforcement inside polling places would be counterproductive and could potentially undermine confidence in the election,” General Counsel Brad McVay said in the letter.

The Florida Department of State said it would send its own monitors to the three counties instead.

The DOJ announced on Monday that it would send monitors to 64 jurisdictions across 24 states, including Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in Florida. The department noted that its Civil Rights Division has “regularly monitored elections” since the passage of the Voting Rights Act in 1965.

Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach were three of six counties in Florida that the DOJ also monitored in the 2020 election.

A county in Missouri similarly said it planned to block DOJ monitors from entering the polls on Election Day. Cole County Clerk Steve Korsmeyer told the Missouri Independent on Monday that “the DOJ won’t be allowed into our polling locations,” citing Missouri state law.

Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft also accused the DOJ of “intimidating Missouri voters at the polls on Election Day” in a tweet on Sunday.

Source: TEST FEED1

Most Republicans don't trust the election system. A red wave could change that.

Most Republicans who vote Tuesday, polls suggest, will participate in an election whose results they do not entirely trust, especially if their party loses.  

Partisan doubt in the nation’s electoral system has seldom run higher. Polls consistently show a solid majority of Republicans lack faith in the vote count, a trend fueled by former President Trump’s relentless and unfounded attacks on the integrity of American elections when the 2020 campaign turned against him. 

A Republican rout in today’s midterms may restore the party’s faith in fair elections, given historical trends. But recent history has never delivered so many candidates, from the presidential ticket on down, who refused to accept defeat. 

“Two-thirds of Republicans think the last election was stolen,” said Marc Hetherington, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “And if they think the last election was stolen, how could they not have less faith in the electoral system?” 

Republican faith in fair elections was all but unanimous during the George W. Bush presidency, according to Gallup, whose pollsters track electoral confidence over time. Ninety-two percent of Republicans believed their votes would be counted in 2006, a high-water mark in electoral trust from either party since Gallup began polling on the issue.  

GOP electoral confidence plummeted in 2008 as the presidency passed to Barack Obama and the Democrats. It sank further in 2016, when Trump, lagging in the polls, theorized the election system might be rigged against him. Republican confidence rose anew when Trump won, only to plummet again when he failed to secure a second term. 

Electoral paranoia is hardly the exclusive province of Republicans. Throughout the early 2000s, Democrats outpaced Republicans in their mistrust of elections, fueled by the widespread belief that President George W. Bush had won election in 2000 on a technicality and that partisan chicanery in Ohio had availed him in 2004.  

No one proved massive voter fraud in the 2000 or 2004 elections, just as exhaustive investigation unearthed no evidence of foul play in 2020.  

And yet, after the 2000 election, only 15 percent of Democrats felt Bush had won the contest “fair and square.” A protracted recount in Florida stretched Election Day into weeks, with the Supreme Court finally deciding the winner.  

“One of the things we woke up to after Florida is that we don’t actually run a national election,” said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist. “We run a whole lot of local elections that lead to a national result.” 

Partisan claims of rigged elections in swing states stretch back at least to the 1960 contest between Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy. Many observers believed then, and some contend now, that corrupt Democrats in Texas and Illinois gifted the election to Kennedy.  

What sets Trump apart from Nixon, and from the Democrats who lost close elections in 2000 and 2004, is that Trump went public with his conspiracy claims. Al Gore and John Kerry, the losing candidates in those contests, ultimately conceded defeat and pledged support to the victor. 

“Political leaders didn’t used to give so much fuel to these things,” Hetherington said. “Richard Nixon had a legitimate reason to be worried about fraudulent ballots in places like Chicago. And Richard Nixon didn’t go there. And I think it’s remarkable that Donald Trump has gone there.” 

Scores of Republican candidates across the nation have followed Trump’s lead, denying his defeat at the polls and, in some cases, vowing to fight the results of any future election that goes against them.  

“They’re creating this sort of ‘heads I win, tails you lose’ thing,” Hetherington said. 

An analysis by the political website FiveThirtyEight found “election deniers” on the ballots in nearly every state in today’s contests. Several of those candidates are running for secretary of state, potentially putting conspiracy theorists in charge of counting future votes.  

Three-fifths of Republicans still believe President Biden did not actually win in 2020, according to a fall poll from Monmouth University. Recent polls by Gallup, Politico, USA Today, YouGov and the Brennan Center for Justice all found a majority of Republicans convinced Tuesday’s elections might not be fair. 

Other polls have found that most Republicans are open to candidates who reject the results of the 2020 election.  

Democrats, by contrast, are nearly as confident in the vote count now as Republicans were in the Bush era.  

On the subject of electoral integrity, Republicans and Democrats worry about different things. During the Bush administration, when many Democrats feared rigged elections, “I think their biggest worry was voter suppression, and the idea that Republicans were not allowing enough people to vote, making it more difficult for people to vote, not having enough polling stations,” said John Feehery, a Republican strategist and columnist for The Hill.  

In recent elections, Democratic protests have centered on long lines at the polls in heavily Democratic urban precincts. Democrats accuse Republican lawmakers of enshrining voter suppression into law — a technique favored by some racist Southern Democrats in the Kennedy era and widely employed in the South during the preceding decades of Jim Crow. 

Republicans have attacked Democrats over balloting by mail, an option embraced by Democrats in 2020 to minimize human contact amid the COVID-19 pandemic. That fall, roughly 70 percent of voters cast ballots before Election Day.  

“People were allowed to do a lot of things they hadn’t been allowed to do before,” Feehery said.  

That effort seeded mistrust among Republicans, who pushed legislation to curb potential voter fraud in mailed ballots. Approaching the midterms, the Republican National Committee characterized the 2020 contest as an anomaly, while party leaders encouraged Republicans to vote in person.  

Democrats continue to support voting by mail. Republicans have countered by challenging mailed ballots in swing states, a technique Democrats decry as voter suppression.  

But Democrats aren’t alone in voting early. The latest reports show more than 42 million Americans have voted ahead of Election Day this fall, by mail or in person. Only 43 percent of those ballots came from Democrats.  

Both Democrats and Republicans voted in record numbers in 2020, despite Republican misgivings about the ballots they cast. That fact, coupled with robust early voting numbers this fall, suggests Republicans have not given up on the system. 

“They’re participating with their feet,” said Chris Henick, a Republican strategist. 

Henick suspects electoral integrity is not a big enough issue to stop most Republicans from going to the polls. They may worry about ballot fraud, he said, but they worry more about inflation, interest rates and the direction of the country. 

“To me, the real crisis on either side,” Republican or Democrat, “would be if voter engagement, voter participation starts to drop,” Vogel said.  

If history is a guide, election observers say, then a Republican wave today will restore some lost trust in the balloting system among Republicans.  

Yet, several factors could shake both parties’ faith. Chief among them: a long, drawn-out vote count. And with candidates polling neck and neck in several high-stakes contests today, that is exactly what both parties fear. 

“My prayer on the morning of Election Day is, let it not be close,” Vogel said. 

Source: TEST FEED1

How the midterms could impact the Russia-Ukraine war

The midterm elections, which are largely being fought over inflation, crime and other domestic issues, could have a huge impact on America’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war. 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the likely Speaker in a GOP majority, has talked about how Ukraine would not get a “blank check” from the U.S. with Republicans in control of the House.  

GOP victories by pro-Trump candidates in the House and Senate could also amplify isolationist voices that have questioned the Biden administration’s steady spending in support of Ukraine.  

“I just see a freight train coming, and that is Trump and his operation turning against aid for Ukraine,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D) told MSNBC last month, underscoring a widely-held concern among Democrats. He added that there could be “a real crisis where the House Republican majority would refuse to support additional aid to Ukraine.” 

Statements from GOP lawmakers such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) have added to the anxiety. During a rally last week, she said a GOP majority would not spend “another penny” on Ukraine.  

To be sure, there are many voices within the GOP that have been highly supportive of Ukraine during the conflict with Russia, including Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).  

Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) and Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the top Republicans in the foreign affairs committees in each chamber, have been leading voices in support of arming Ukraine, often pushing for Biden to do more.   

Danielle Pletka, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Republican Senate foreign policy staff member, said a majority of Republicans want to back Ukraine against Russia’s aggression.  

“For me, it is about the great battle of the substantive versus the loud,” she said, placing figures like Greene in the latter category. “But these are not people who have any power at all in the House or the Senate.”

But it is also true that McCarthy’s comments reflect skepticism about U.S. economic and military support for Ukraine within his conference. 

And the first test of GOP resistance to additional Ukraine aid could come before the end of this session, with the Biden administration expected to push for another aid package during the lame-duck period before January.

Rep. Jim Banks, chair of the conservative Republican Study Committee, said McCarthy was “exactly right” with his no-blank-check comments.  

“Now Democrats are screaming and saying ‘Well, McCarthy says that, we know he’s gonna be Speaker of the House. We’re gonna pass another $50 billion in the lame duck.’ It’s just absurd. It’s insanity,” he told Fox News last month.  

That package is likely to pass with Democrats still in control of the House and Senate no matter the results of the midterms. But the level of GOP opposition could indicate how much of the caucus remains on board with strong support for Kyiv. And Banks’ remarks could find even more support if the U.S. economy tips into a recession in 2023.  

Ukraine is likely to be watching the results of the midterms with some anxiety, though Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the BBC last week that he was confident that both parties would keep up support for Kyiv after meetings with lawmakers.  

“I got a lot of signals that it doesn’t matter who will steer… bipartisan support for Ukraine will be continued,” he said. “I believe in that.” 

Andres Kasekamp, a political science professor at the University of Toronto who studies the war, said the GOP is “exploiting” the narrative that America must choose between investing in the U.S. on one hand or helping Ukraine on the other. He accused some in the GOP of abandoning the idea that upholding a rules-based international order is in the U.S. interest.  

“That used to be something that was common sense and in the DNA of the Republican Party,” he said. “Now the sort of populists on the far right of the Republican Party have changed the narrative, and it’s dangerous.” 

So far, Americans remain largely united behind U.S. support for Ukraine, thought recent polls have shown a growing partisan divide. 

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in early October found that 81 percent of Democrats and 66 percent of Republicans agreed that the U.S. should continue to support Ukraine, despite nuclear warnings from Russia.  

A Wall Street Journal poll this month found that 81 percent of Democrats support additional financial aid for Ukraine, compared to 35 percent of Republicans. And almost half of Republicans said the U.S. is doing too much, up from 6 percent at the start of the war.  

“It plays right into the hands of Putin,” Kasekamp said of skepticism toward Ukraine support. “The Russians from the beginning have tried to dissuade the West from helping the Ukrainians.” 

Former President Trump has said current U.S. policy risks World War III, advocating instead for the U.S. to pressure Ukraine to open peace talks with Russia.  

Last month, he found rare common cause with progressive Democrats in the House, who released and then retracted a letter calling on President Biden to ramp up diplomatic efforts to end the war.  

Tuesday’s election could bolster the ranks of Ukraine skeptics. JD Vance, the Trump-backed GOP Senate nominee in Ohio, said earlier this year that he didn’t care about Ukraine, and wanted Biden to focus on the U.S. border.  

Pletka, the former GOP staffer, said she worried that the far right and far left — for different reasons — will decide to capitulate to Putin and pressure Ukraine to take a peace deal.  

“I could absolutely see the appeasement wing of the Democratic Party having a meeting of minds, if you can call them that, with the fortress America-first wing of the Republican party and doing the wrong thing,” she said.  

Despite Ukraine projecting confidence in continued support from both parties, Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Kyiv has cause for concern.  

“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy learned the hard way in 2019 how much domestic U.S. politics can affect Ukraine’s reality,” she wrote last week, referring to Trump’s first impeachment trial.  

“He and his team would be right to worry about next week’s polls. Whether or not the GOP will follow through on its threats to scale back Ukraine aid is impossible to predict, but it is definitely a real possibility.” 

Source: TEST FEED1

Final Cook Political Report analysis puts House ‘easily’ in GOP’s reach

One of the country’s leading election handicappers says the House is “easily” within the reach of Republicans, who are heading into Tuesday’s midterm elections with the highest expectations that they’ll have control of the chamber next year.

In their final analysis heading into the polls, election experts at the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan group based in Washington, acknowledged the lingering uncertainty surrounding this year’s outcome. But with the political winds shifting decisively to the GOP’s advantage in recent weeks, Republicans are all but guaranteed to flip the lower chamber, Cook said. 

“A dearth of high-quality public polling has made House races tricky to forecast this year, relative to the last midterm in 2018,” David Wasserman, Cook’s top House analyst, wrote in releasing the group’s final assessment. “But a House control appears easily within the GOP’s reach — with the biggest remaining mystery the size of that majority.”

With the GOP needing 218 seats to seize the House majority, Cook analysts have put Republicans squarely in control of 212 of them, which they rank either safely, likely or leaning Republican on the campaign’s last day. Democrats, by contrast, have 187 seats in one of those three categories, leaving 36 races in the most hotly contested “toss up” column.

That’s slightly more cautious than the final assessment from another top election analyst, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, based at the University of Virginia, which says Republicans have 218 seats — enough to win House control — that at least lean in the GOP’s favor on Election Day. 

Sabato’s experts are predicting Republicans will pick up 24 seats — well above the five they need to seize the chamber — though they’re also warning that unforeseen factors could skew the final results. 

“There’s still a fairly wide range of possible outcomes,” Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s managing editor, said Monday. “These things always seem obvious after the fact but even a day before there’s often real uncertainty.” 

Cook’s analysts have targeted a range, rather than a number. And Wasserman said the “likeliest” outcome is that Republicans will pick up between 15 and 30 seats — a broad span that acknowledges the uncertainty of polling and open questions about voter turnout. He characterized the House landscape this year as “unusually uneven.” 

From a historical standpoint, this cycle was always going to be difficult for the Democrats. They have razor-thin margins in both chambers, and the party that controls the White House routinely suffers losses in the midterm cycle of the president’s first term. 

This year, however, there have been additional factors adding to the Democrats’ challenges. President Biden’s approval rating has been underwater for more than a year. Rising inflation and volatile gas prices have exacerbated the economic anxieties on the top of voters’ minds. And Republicans have taken advantage of public concerns over crime and safety, blaming the party in power for doing too little to combat the trend. 

As a result, Democrats have been forced to play defense across a much larger battlefield than they’d anticipated even as recently as a few months ago, to include seats that Biden won by double digits in 2020. 

Emblematic of that shift is New York’s 17th District, where Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the head of the Democrats’ campaign arm, is in one of the “toss up” contests in a region Biden carried by more than 10 points — a situation that’s forced the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to spend resources defending its own chairman. 

Kondik said Republicans have benefited from a news cycle that’s shifted, in recent weeks, to the same issues that have favored GOP candidates — and made Democrats more vulnerable.

“The general news flow of the election has been better for Republicans than Democrats, just in the sense that the issues the Democrats wanted people to be thinking about (abortion, Trump, etc.) have perhaps not been as prominent down the stretch,” he said. 

Some Democrats are also second-guessing their strategy to focus much of their midterm message on two other issues that have gained prominence this cycle: abortion rights, in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade, and the state of American democracy amid the spurious claims from former President Trump that the 2020 election was “stolen” — a falsehood that inspired last year’s mob attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Those issues have energized the Democrats’ liberal base, but national polls indicate that voters at large consider pocketbook issues — particularly inflation — to be much more important.

Still, even some of the most threatened Democrats have defended their strategy to the last, insisting that voters care about both their economic worries and issues related to democracy and reproductive rights. 

“Most of the voters I speak to are not single-issue voters. They care about the price of groceries. They also don’t want to lose their rights,” Rep. Tom Malinowski (N.J.), a vulnerable Democrat, told CNN on Monday. “And what I’ve tried to argue is Democrats actually have a plan to protect you on both of those issues. Republicans do not.”

Source: TEST FEED1

The Hill's Morning Report — Expectations high for GOP this Election Day

Here’s what we think we know as Election Day dawns nationwide, based on our colleagues’ reporting: It’s going to be a good night for Republican candidates competing for House seats. How good remains to be seen. The GOP could wrest the Senate majority away from President Biden and Democrats by a single seat, although there are other plausible scenarios as millions of Americans line up to vote on Tuesday.

“Look, if we’re able to hold on, we’re going to be in incredible shape,” the president said Monday during a Democratic National Committee virtual event. “Imagine what we can do in a second term if we maintain control. I know that sounds like a very high expectation, but I think — anyway, I’m optimistic.”

In the final moments of a 96-minute Ohio rally Monday night, former President Trump endorsed a long list of Republican candidates across the country and said he plans a “very big announcement” Nov. 15 at Mar-a-Lago, a message immediately interpreted by his cheering audience as his intention to run again for president in 2024 (The Hill). 

“We want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow,” Trump said, aware of criticism that teasing his presidential ambitions again on the eve of the midterms might increase Democratic voter turnout and undercut GOP candidates. “We will be a great nation again,” he said.

Biden may or may not be certain on Tuesday night whether his Irish optimism panned out in neck-and-neck races (The Hill). Patience could be needed, for instance, if a close result in Georgia’s Senate contest forces a runoff next month. The Hill’s Al Weaver breaks down the key Senate contests and possible paths to a GOP majority, as well as paths for Democrats to retain control.

“Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat,” wrote the analysts with the University of Virginia Center for Politics’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 governorship.”

In addition to Georgia’s support for Republican challenger Herschel Walker, who has pressured Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) despite Walker’s personal vulnerabilities, Pennsylvania’s enthusiasm for celebrity TV personality Mehmet Oz (R) led Democratic leaders to throw everything and the kitchen sink behind Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), who plans to cast his ballot in about two hours. The Keystone State outlook this morning, according to polls? Deadlock (The Hill). 

A favorable outcome for Republicans in the House will change the way Congress operates next year and upend the players in the chamber’s most powerful positions, report The Hill’s Emily Brooks and Mike Lillis. All it will take is a net gain of five House seats. Here’s how to view potential Election Day House outcomes: The GOP wins a narrow majority (gain of 8 to 12 seats), or a healthy majority (20 to 30 seats), or a red tsunami (more than 30 seats). Least likely: Democrats retain control in a history-defying midterm shocker during a period of high inflation and low presidential job approval. 

The Hill is spotlighting seven House races tonight in search of clues about the electorate and issue trends: Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District; Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District; Virginia’s 7th Congressional District; Ohio’s 9th Congressional District; Indiana’s 1st Congressional District; New Jersey 7th Congressional District; and Virginia’s 1st Congressional District.

The Hill pulled together final midterm election predictions from eight seasoned Washington pundits HERE. 

And by the way, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who hopes to be next year’s Speaker, is eyeing those and other races tonight during an event at a Virginia Beach restaurant with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), the state’s lieutenant governor and former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), who was one of McCarthy’s midterm advisers (3WTKR).

The Hill’s Niall Stanage is taking notes tonight to help answer at least five questions, he writes, including how the abortion debate ultimately impacts the midterm contests, how Latinos vote this time around, and how potential 2024 presidential candidates fare (for example, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, whose popularity among Republicans has gotten under former Trump’s skin).

👉 The Hill’s Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack and Stanage this week will track election results and implications as part of The Hill TV coverage (info about where to watch is HERE). NewsNation’s election coverage info is HERE.

Outgoing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who has presidential ambitions as an aisle-crossing moderate, broadly hinted at that aim with a Monday night tweet of an America United flag-waving video ad in which he’s featured: “After two years of failed policies, Americans are demanding change. While the President is in our state, we hope he hears about how Governor Hogan has turned the economy around, brought people together, and led with common sense.” 

Journalists, state officials and federal authorities will join members of the public alert to any violence, election interference or intimidation, cyberattacks, refusals to concede contests, calls for recounts and litigation that will take time to move through the courts.

“People should have confidence in their election system,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Monday. 

▪ The Washington Post: Republicans sue to disqualify thousands of mail-in ballots in swing states.

▪ Politico Nightly’s experienced journo Charlie Mahtesian wrote on Monday that the midterms have all the underpinnings of what he described as a disaster: “This year’s election is going to be a train wreck.”

▪ The New York Times and The Hill: In a second setback in as many weeks for GOP efforts to hand-audit elections, a judge in Arizona ruled on Monday that Cochise County could not proceed with a plan to count ballots manually this week based on Republican mistrust of voting machines.

▪ The Washington Post: Election officials fear counting delays will help fuel claims of fraud.

▪ CNN Business: Twitter, recently sold to billionaire Elon Musk, could be a new wild card in the midterms. And by the way, CEO Musk placed his Twitter fingers heavily on the GOP side of the election scales on Monday (The Hill and The New York Times).

▪ Reuters: Election deniers on ballots on Tuesday, including Republicans who support Trump’s false claims that he won the 2020 election, aim to run the 2024 presidential vote.

Related Articles

▪ The Hill: The powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) endorsed a GOP challenger in a Pennsylvania House race, angering progressives. “Democracy is on the ballot this cycle and AIPAC is helping the side that wants to end free and fair elections,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told The Hill. 

▪ The Hill’s Nathaniel Weixel unpacks state ballot measures that deal with abortion, Medicaid expansion, marijuana legalization and collection of medical debts. 

▪ The Hill: Black voters say they’re prepared to get blamed for Democratic political disappointments. 

LEADING THE DAY

➤ CONGRESS

While Tuesday marks the end of the election cycle for most, things are just getting started in the offices of party leaders on Capitol Hill.

If House Democrats lose their majority, they will likely undergo their biggest leadership shake-up in decades, and House Republicans are fighting over key leadership positions as they determine the direction their party will take in January.

As Politico reports, the next few weeks could result in the biggest changes to House leadership since the Republican Revolution of 1994, when the GOP claimed the chamber after defeating the sitting Democratic speaker in his reelection bid.

Roll Call: If control of the House is close, Jan. 3 could be chaos. Things could get “pretty messy” with election challenges swirling, legal experts say.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who first held the title from 2007 to 2011, and has led the chamber again since 2019, previously signaled this would be her last term. But she has not spoken definitively about stepping down recently, telling CNN’s Anderson Cooper in an interview airing Monday that “my decision will be affected about what happened the last week or two.”

Pelosi spoke to Cooper in her first television interview since the attack on her husband, Paul Pelosi, at their San Francisco home on Oct. 28. The intruder who attacked her husband with a hammer was looking for the Speaker, police said (The Washington Post).

In the interview, Nancy Pelosi addressed the misinformation and disparaging comments from some Republicans in the wake of the attack (The New York Times).

“You would think there would be some level of responsibility,” she said. “You see what the reaction is on the other side, to make a joke of it. That is traumatizing, too.”

If Democrats lose the House and Pelosi does step down, the door opens for a new generation of party members to rise in the leadership ranks. Multiple lawmakers told Politico the race for the No. 1 slot is looking to be in House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries’s (D-N.Y.) favor, though House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) is also expressing interest.

▪ Politico: How a secret meeting put Jeffries on track to replace Pelosi.

▪ The New Republic: The next generation of House leadership — Jeffries on the priorities of tomorrow’s Democratic leaders.

While House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is the likely choice for the Speakership if Republicans take the lower chamber, possible GOP leadership in the Senate looks more complicated.

A big election night for Senate Republicans, who could pick up as many as two to five seats, is fueling chatter of a potential showdown between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and National Republican Senate Committee (NSRC) Chairman Rick Scott (Fla.) in a majority leader’s race, writes The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. 

Scott on Sunday further stoked the rumors by declining to say he won’t run for the position. The Florida senator has close ties to Trump, who has called on Senate Republicans to “impeach” McConnell. McConnell, meanwhile, is losing several close allies after the election as they plan to retire — including Republican Sens. Pat Toomey (Pa.), Ben Sasse (Neb.) and Rob Portman (Ohio), among others.

If Republicans win, some of their seats will be filled by Trump acolytes such as Eric Schmitt in Missouri and Ted Budd in North Carolina. But McConnell still retains a strong grip on the Senate GOP caucus and has raised $380 million to help take back the Senate majority — more than what the NRSC and Trump have raised for the cause. 

The Wall Street Journal: Arizona’s GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters is noncommittal on supporting McConnell as leader.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL   

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Monday said the world was “on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator.” Speaking at the annual COP27 climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, his warning set the tone for the climate talks, which are underscored by the threats of war, global warming and economic unrest taking a toll on every continent.

“We are in the fight of our lives, and we are losing,” Guterres said in his opening remarks (The New York Times).

▪ Reuters: COP27: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak says climate and energy security go hand in hand.

▪ The Guardian: COP conferences are a big game of let’s pretend and 27 won’t be any different.

▪ The New York Times: As climate pledges fall short, a chaotic future looks more like reality.

At COP27 on Tuesday, the United States championed nature-based solutions to climate change with a report describing a “roadmap” for climate progress. The administration touts examples that can capture and store carbon dioxide, including “protection or conservation of natural areas, reforestation, restoration of marshes or other habitats, or sustainable management of farms, fisheries or forests.” In addition, the United States announced specific agency actions to support an investment of $25 billion in infrastructure and climate funding (NPR).

Biden on Monday spoke with former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to congratulate him on his party’s victory in last week’s elections, where his party teamed up with far-right factions to form a conservative coalition. His main opponent, Prime Minister Yair Lapid, a centrist, conceded on Thursday (The Hill).

Ukraine on Monday accused Russia of looting empty homes in the southern city of Kherson and occupying them with troops in civilian clothing in preparation for street fighting during what both sides predict will be one of the war’s most important battles.

In anticipation of a Ukrainian assault to recapture the city, Russia in recent days has ordered civilians out of Kherson, the only regional capital Moscow has seized since invading in February (Reuters and The Wall Street Journal).

The Washington Post: Ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin boasts he “interfered” in U.S. midterm elections.

New COVID-19 cases surged in Guangzhou and other Chinese cities, according to Tuesday data, making the global manufacturing hub China’s latest epicenter for the virus and testing the city’s ability to avoid a lockdown. China’s aggressive zero-COVID policy has affected the country’s economy; its stocks and currency have slipped over virus fears. “We are seeing a game between rising voices for loosening controls and rapid spreading of COVID cases,” Nie Wen, a Shanghai-based economist at Hwabao Trust, told Reuters.

The New York Times: Apple built its empire with China. Now its foundation is showing cracks.

➤ SUPREME COURT

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson on Monday issued her first opinion since joining the Supreme Court, writing a dissent over the court’s refusal to hear an appeal from a death row inmate.

Jackson, who is the nation’s first Black female justice and the court’s only former public defender, wrote a brief two-page dissent that was joined by fellow liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor.

In arguing that inmate Davel Chinn’s case should have been returned to a lower appeals court, Jackson said a lower court applied the wrong legal standard when it weighed the extent to which Chinn said his case would be helped by evidence he claimed was improperly withheld at trial (The Hill).

The court on Monday also declined to take up the appeal of a Louisiana man who said he was denied the right to a fair trial when prosecutors called the assistant district attorney — who presented the case to the grand jury — as a witness.

Sotomayor, joined by Jackson, dissented from the court’s decision not to take up the case (CNN).

CNN and Reuters: Supreme Court rejects appeal from Air Force veteran in dispute over Veterans Affairs benefits.

OPINION

■ How political violence went mainstream on the right, by Rachel Kleinfeld, guest essayist, Politico. https://politi.co/3DE9FVS 

■ What’s at stake in these elections, by The New York Times Editorial Board. https://nyti.ms/3fIRuGw

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 YOU’RE INVITED: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill has launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE. 

The House meets at noon on Thursday for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14. ​​

The Senate convenes on Thursday at 3 p.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14. 

The president receives the President’s Daily Brief at 9:30 a.m. Biden on Wednesday is expected to speak about the results of the midterm elections and take questions at the White House.

Vice President Harris, who is in Los Angeles, will be interviewed by radio outlets at 8 a.m. PT and at 1:30 p.m. PT. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Bahamian Foreign Minister Frederick Mitchell at the Department of State at 1:30 p.m. The secretary will meet at 4 p.m. with Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr al-Busaidi.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen departs on Tuesday for New Delhi, India, to participate in the U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership gathering on Friday.

ELSEWHERE

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

Paxlovid, Pfizer’s antiviral pill that reduces the risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19, also reduces the risk of long COVID, a new study by researchers at the Department of Veterans Affairs shows. 

The study, posted online Saturday, looked at electronic records for more than 56,000 veterans with COVID-19, more than 9,000 of whom were treated with Paxlovid within the first five days of their infection. The analysis showed those who were treated with Paxlovid had a 26 percent smaller risk of developing several long COVID conditions, including neurocognitive impairment, heart disease, fatigue, liver disease, kidney disease, muscle pain, blood disorders and shortness of breath (CNN and The Hill).

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: COVID-19’s drag on the workforce proves persistent. “It sets us back.”

▪ CNBC: Six health insurance terms you need to know as open enrollment begins.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,072,724. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,504 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

THE CLOSER

And finally … 🌚 This morning’s total lunar eclipse was the last the Earth will see for the next three years. 

The initial phase of the eclipse began around 3 a.m. ET, according to NASA. The partial eclipse then started an hour later, when to the naked eye, it looked like someone was taking a bite out of the moon. The lunar disk entered totality at 5:17 a.m. ET and will last for about an hour and a half — so look out your window as you read this newsletter to catch the last glimpses!

A lunar eclipse occurs when the sun, Earth and moon align, and during a full lunar eclipse, the moon falls completely in the Earth’s shadow — causing it to look red. This is how the phenomenon gets the nickname “blood moon,” and the more dusty or cloudy the atmosphere is, the redder the moon appears.

As NASA said, “It’s as if all the world’s sunrises and sunsets are projected onto the Moon” (The Hill and NPR).

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

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Seven races to watch for early signs of House results

The final partisan breakdown of the House is unlikely to be known on election night or in the days after, as states such as New York and California, where Republicans hope to pick up many seats, often take weeks to tabulate final results. 

But there are some congressional districts that could see results relatively early on election night that have environments similar to many other competitive districts across the country, providing clues about the overall trends in the electorate that will determine the final congressional breakdown.

Here are seven races to monitor for early signs of a red ripple — or a red wave — for the GOP in the House.

Races to watch for a good GOP night

Virginia’s 7th Congressional District: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) vs. Yesli Vega (R)

Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +6.8

Cook Political Report rating: toss-up

Spanberger is going head-to-head with Vega, a member of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. The district went for President Biden by close to 7 points in 2020, and the congressional lines give Democrats a very slight edge. 

Though the two-term incumbent is used to close races — she won her elections in 2018 and 2020 by roughly 2 percentage points — The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman noted last month when it moved the House race from “lean Democrat” to a toss-up that one challenge for Spanberger has been having to introduce herself to a majority-new district. That’s an expensive feat given that it’s in the Washington, D.C., media market. 

Democrats are acutely aware of the challenging reelections Spanberger and Reps. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) and Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) face in the state and criticized the redistricting process. 

“It was the women who got the short end of the stick in Virginia,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told reporters in his Capitol office. “I’d be angry about that.”

Ohio’s 9th Congressional District: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. J.R. Majewski (R)

Polls close: 7:30 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Trump +2.9

Cook Political Report rating: lean D

Prior to mid-September, Majewski had a clearer path to an upset against Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District. After all, the congressional lines for this district give Republicans an edge, and this district went for former President Trump by about 3 points in 2020. Even Kaptur, who’s served in the House for close to 40 years, ran ads separating herself from Biden, as Democrats have been forced to contend with his underwater approval ratings.

But after The Associated Press ran a story later that month reporting that Majewski had misrepresented his military experience, the House Republicans’ campaign arm promptly withdrew an ad buy of close to $1 million. Within days, The Cook Political Report shifted its forecast of the race from a toss-up to “lean Democrat.”

If Majewski can overcome allegations of stolen valor — in addition to attack ads tying him to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot — it would be seen as a major feat for House Republicans. 

Indiana’s 1st Congressional District: Rep. Frank Mrvan (D) vs. Jennifer-Ruth Green (R)

Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +8.5

Cook Political Report rating: toss-up

Democrats have represented Indiana’s 1st Congressional District for decades, and this district went for Biden in 2020 by more than 8 points. Mrvan won this seat last cycle by double digits, and the district’s congressional lines favor Democrats, meaning Democrats should theoretically win this seat.

But if Green wins this district, as Wasserman notes, it could signal a good night for Republicans, who could pick up at least 20 seats in the House. Even if Mrvan prevails against Green, who served full time in the Air Force for 12 years and is still in the Air Force Air Reserve Component, a win in the single digits can still serve as a warning for Democrats about Republicans’ momentum in more Democratic-friendly seats.

Races to watch for signs of a massive red wave

Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District: Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) vs. George Logan (R)

Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +10.7

Cook Political Report rating: toss-up

The Western Connecticut district is part of a group of New England reach targets for Republicans that they think are in play due to voter frustration with Democratic control. And while Republicans are not certain they will win it, the fact that Republicans are competitive in a district that Biden won by nearly 11 points has them optimistic about the rest of the midterm map.

“If we’re picking off a double-digit Biden seat with an incumbent — I think that says it’s a pretty significant night,” said Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund PAC that is aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), in a briefing with reporters on Friday.

Hayes, who is seeking a third term in the district, faces Logan, a former state senator who has had some challenges with fundraising.

Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District: Seth Magaziner (D) vs. Allan Fung (R)

Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +13.7

Cook Political Report rating: toss-up

Republican strategists think that winning the Rhode Island seat puts the GOP on the path to a majority with seats in the range of the high 230s to the low 240s, making for a substantial cushion for GOP leaders and a very good night for the party.

Current Rep. Jim Langevin (D) is retiring at the end of his term, and the open seat makes it more challenging for Democrats. Magaziner is the former Rhode Island treasurer, while Fung is the former mayor of Cranston and the state’s 2018 gubernatorial GOP nominee.

Races to watch for signs of a better night for Democrats than expected

New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) vs. Tom Kean Jr. (R)

Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +3.8

Cook Political Report rating: lean R

Redistricting for New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District put Malinowski at a disadvantage this election cycle. His old seat gave Democrats an edge under the old congressional lines. The new seat, however, now leans toward Republicans.

The House race has also proved expensive, with NJ Spotlight News reporting last month that, according to the latest filings at the time, at least $11.5 million had been spent by the campaigns of Malinowski, Kean and independent committees. But there’s reason to believe Malinowski could prevail again given that he flipped the Republican stronghold seat in 2018. 

It’s also not Malinowski’s first time winning a reelection bid against Kean. The two went head-to-head in 2020, and Malinowski won the race by just over a point.

Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District: Luria vs. Jen Kiggans (R)

Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

2020 presidential, per Daily Kos: Biden +1.9

Cook Political Report rating: toss-up

Kiggans, a former state senator and a Navy veteran, is a top Republican congressional recruit — and her race was the first that the McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund engaged in this cycle. Republicans are confident about their chances of flipping the Virginia Beach-area district.

It would be a major disappointment for Republicans if Luria, who was elected during the 2018 blue wave, prevailed in that race — and would likely be an early warning sign that Republican hopes of unleashing a red midterm wave hit a significant breaker.

Mike Lillis contributed.

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Live Coverage: 2022 Midterm Elections

The 2022 midterm elections are underway Tuesday, where voters will cast their final ballots to determine who controls Congress and capture key governor’s mansions.

Early vote totals have pointed toward record-breaking turnout for a non-presidential election year, reaching a 40-year high with more than 40 million votes cast.

The first polls open by 6 a.m. ET. 

Follow The Hill’s live coverage below:

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Chatter grows over potential Rick Scott GOP leadership challenge to Mitch McConnell

The prospect of Senate Republicans picking up as many as two to five seats in the midterms is fueling chatter of a showdown between Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Rick Scott (Fla.) in a race to serve as Senate majority leader.   

Scott stoked speculation about his leadership ambitions on Sunday, when he refused to rule out challenging McConnell, who says he has the votes to win. 

“He might do it. I hope he doesn’t,” said a Senate Republican strategist, when asked if Scott could challenge McConnell.  

Scott declined to endorse McConnell as majority leader Sunday during an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press.”  

Asked by host Chuck Todd if he planned to run for leader if Republicans win the Senate majority, Scott said, “I’m not focused on anything except getting a majority Tuesday night.”  

Todd then interrupted him midsentence to interject: “That’s a nonanswer.”    

“It’s a possibility,” the television host concluded, which Scott didn’t dispute.   

Senate Republican insiders say Scott’s silence on the question of whether he might challenge his colleague is puzzling, because he told CBS News in mid-February that he would “absolutely” vote for McConnell to serve another term as leader.   

“I can’t imagine there will be a leader besides Mitch McConnell,” Scott said at the time.   

Since then, their relationship has become strained over differences on political and fundraising strategy.   

McConnell pointedly told reporters on March 1 that he, not Scott, would be majority leader if Republicans captured the Senate. McConnell wasn’t happy that Scott released his own 11-point plan, which called for sunsetting all federal legislation after five years.   

“Now let me tell you what will not be part of our agenda: We will not have as part of my agenda a bill that raises taxes on half of the American people and sunsets Social Security and Medicare within five years,” McConnell said at the time. 

Scott, who was standing behind McConnell at the beginning of the press conference, walked away from the podium before McConnell took questions.  

A second Republican strategist said Scott may be trying to position himself as a potential rival to McConnell to boost his own national profile, even if he doesn’t challenge him for the top leadership job.   

“One of his advisers said a fight for McConnell is good for him, and he’s trying to raise his profile to see what his choices are post-NRSC,” the strategist said, noting that Scott is also thought to be weighing a run for president in 2024.   

Scott is also a loyal ally of former President Trump, who has feuded with McConnell and is likely to run for president again. That would be Scott’s major advantage against McConnell. 

McConnell is no longer on speaking terms with Trump, who attacks him on a regular basis. The ex-president called on Republicans last week to “impeach” McConnell if he supported a plan to eliminate the federal debt ceiling.   

Scott, in contrast, traveled to Mar-a-Lago in mid-April — a few weeks after clashing with McConnell over his 11-point plan — to give the former president a handsome silver bowl, which he called the NRSC’s first “Champion of Freedom Award.”      

Scott has consistently sounded more confident than McConnell about the prospects of Republicans picking up seats and control of the chamber. He told The Hill last month that he saw a pathway to Republicans controlling as many as 55 Senate seats next year.   

In early August, McConnell predicted on Fox’s “Special Report” that “we’re likely to have a very, very close Senate still, with us up slightly or the Democrats up slightly.”   

In mid-August, McConnell said there was “probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate” because “Senate races are just different” and “candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”   

That statement was interpreted as a veiled criticism of some of the Senate GOP candidates, who were falling short of expectations in fundraising and polling.  

Scott appeared to lash out his leader by writing a scathing op-ed in the Washington Examiner in which he excoriated fellow Republicans for “trash-talking” GOP candidates. He called it “an amazing act of cowardice” and “treasonous to the conservative cause.”   

Scott later insisted he was not talking about McConnell but instead about “people that do anonymous quotes to the liberal media.”   

Several Republican senators told The Hill earlier this year that they expect McConnell to win another term as Republican leader because of his strong relationships within the caucus. They added that there had been no effort by Scott or anyone else to lay the groundwork for a leadership race.   

But challenges to a party leader are usually waged secretly, with behind-the-scenes machinations often not getting light until the last moment.   

The election could increase the power of Scott and Trump in the Senate Republican Caucus, as Trump has endorsed several Senate GOP candidates who, if they win, would have a vote on a future GOP leader. They include Ted Budd in North Carolina, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker in Georgia and Blake Masters in Arizona.   

McConnell, meanwhile, is losing a group of loyal allies who will retire at the end of the year. Republican Sens. Richard Shelby (Ala.), Roy Blunt (Mo.), Richard Burr (N.C.), Rob Portman (Ohio), Pat Toomey (Pa.) and Ben Sasse (Neb.), who could all be expected to reliably vote for McConnell, won’t be serving in the Senate next year.   

Still, McConnell is a master tactician and prodigious fundraiser who will also be able to take credit for a GOP Senate victory. He has raised more than $380 million to help Senate Republican candidates through two outside groups: the Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation. That’s substantially more money than Scott has raised through the NRSC or than Trump has funneled to Senate GOP candidates.   

McConnell also has strong support from other members of the Republican leadership, including Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), Senate Republican Conference Chairman John Barrasso (Wyo.) and Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), the former party whip who now serves as an adviser.   

“Is there a chance he could run? Maybe. If he thinks that he has a shot, then he might run as somebody who is going to be able to take some credit for some wins in the election,” Brian Darling, a Republican strategist and former Senate aide, said of Scott   

“But the bottom line is the Senate is a club and I don’t see him beating McConnell for leader. There just don’t seem to be the votes there to take McConnell out as leader,” he said. “Maybe he leverages another position in leadership.”

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The path for Democrats to win the Senate

This story explains the Democrats’ path to the Senate majority. Click here to read about the other party’s path.

The Democrats’ path to holding their Senate majority has narrowed in the weeks leading up to Election Day, though it’s still a strong possibility.  

 High inflation, high gas prices and President Biden’s low approval numbers have taken a toll on his party, which has been forced to play defense in at least a handful of seats held by incumbents.  

Democrats have leaned heavily on messaging surrounding the threat to abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s overturning of the Roe v. Wade decision, but it is unclear if that will be enough to win over voters. 

The party has just one clear-cut opportunity for a pickup, with what appear to be a few other longer shots in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.  

To keep the majority, Democrats likely need a win in Pennsylvania and for its incumbents to hold on in a handful of other states.   

Nevada

The heart of the Democratic path to retain the Senate runs through the Battle Born State, where Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is running for reelection against former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R).  

Cortez Masto, who chaired the Senate Democratic campaign arm in 2020, has run what most on the Democratic side consider a strong race, but Republicans are feeling confident about taking her out.  

The Democrat’s problems are familiar: whether she can overcome the headwinds blowing in the face of her party nationwide. Some of these headwinds are especially strong in Nevada, where gas prices average $4.95 per gallon, the third highest in the continental U.S., according to AAA. 

Polls show Laxalt holding a slight polling advantage, with the latest RealClearPolitics average finding him clinging to a 2.8 percentage point advantage.  

If Democrats lose the race, holding the Senate will be much more difficult. But they have far from given up.  

“We’ve known it’s a battleground that will be won on the margins,” said one Democratic operative with Nevada ties. “They’ve gotten knocked down and come up short three cycles in a row. … This isn’t going to be 2014 by any stretch.” 

Jon Ralston, the CEO of the Nevada Independent, predicted a win for Cortez Masto on Monday, arguing that while Laxalt may win the rural counties by a 2 to 1 margin, the base will come through for the incumbent in Clark County, home to Las Vegas and a large portion of state residents. He said she might even pull out a win in Washoe County, where Reno and Carson City sit. 

Georgia

Another Democratic incumbent, Sen. Raphael Warnock, is in a tough race against Republican Herschel Walker, who so far has survived a series of controversies.  

Warnock is seen as a strong candidate, but he’s running against the same difficult headwinds as Cortez Masto in a state where Democrats had struggled to win statewide races before 2020.  

Warnock and fellow Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff turned Georgia blue in an early January 2021 runoff election after Biden won a narrow victory over former President Trump.

Democrats are hoping for a similar result this time. If neither Warnock nor Walker can win 50 percent of the vote, the contest will go to a runoff in December.  

The runoff could play into the hands of Democrats.  

Like some Senate GOP candidates this year, Walker is a chief beneficiary of having a strong governor at the top of the ticket in Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who is favored over Democrat Stacey Abrams.  

If there is a Dec. 6 runoff, Walker would not have Kemp on top of the ticket to give him a lift.  

Pennsylvania

If Democrats lose one of the previously listed races, a win by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) over Republican Mehmet Oz is absolutely necessary if the party is going to keep hold of power in the upper chamber.  

For months following the May primary, Fetterman had a significant upper hand and it showed. He held sizable polling leads over Oz through Labor Day, but those began to shrink as heavy GOP spending in the state started to pay off with messages centered on crime and Fetterman’s career in public office.  

Fetterman’s stroke, which he suffered just before the Democratic primary in May, has also been a factor.  

It sidelined him until August, when he started to make public appearances. However, it also put him on the defensive in the one debate between him and Oz that was colored by his auditory processing issues and his struggle to speak clearly at times. Whether that debate swung things in Oz’s direction remains unclear. 

“We have no idea if the Fetterman/Oz debate materially changed the race,” the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics wrote Monday, “but it was close before the debate and it’s close now.”

The path to victory for Fetterman is not unlike that of most Democrats in recent state history: compiling big margins in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, putting strong showings in throughout suburban regions and not getting blown out in the more rural parts of the state.  

Fetterman’s main appeal to the state is simple: That he’s “one of us” and Oz, who lived in New Jersey for years while hosting his daytime television show, is not.  

In a reversal from Georgia, a Democrat could be boosted by his gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania.  

Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) is widely expected to defeat state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) in that governor race, with GOP operatives believing he could win by 6 to 12 points.  

The higher that total is, the better for Fetterman.  

Democrats at various points in the cycle thought they had decent chances of defeating GOP candidates in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.  

Their candidates trail in all three states, so they would need a late shift to pull out a victory.  

But if Democrats lose the Pennsylvania Senate race, most think it’s unlikely the party would win victories in those other states.

Source: TEST FEED1