House Republicans are widely expected to win back power after four years in the minority in Tuesday’s midterm election, but the partisan breakdown of the chamber will have major implications on how it operates next year.
The GOP’s estimated gains vary wildly, from a handful of seats — which would lend Republican leaders just a slim majority — to a red tsunami that would give them a huge cushion to manage their sometimes boisterous conference through the second half of President Biden’s first term.
House Democrats’ narrow majority after unexpected losses in 2020 put Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in the tough spot of straddling the frequently competing demands of the progressive and moderate corners of her caucus. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who’s likely to replace Pelosi as Speaker if the House flips, is expected to face similar pressure from his restive right flank.
The predictive business, of course, is an inexact one. And there is always room for surprises. Nate Silver, editor of FiveThirtyEight, compared the Republicans’ odds to that of an NFL kicker attempting a 42-yard field goal.
“It’s not a guarantee,” he said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “But … you would expect that to happen most of the time.”
Here are four midterm scenarios, and their potential consequences.
GOP wins narrow majority
A GOP net gain of between five and 13 seats would win them the majority in the range of 218 to 224 seats. But because Republicans have long had high expectations of a red wave this cycle — McCarthy a year ago predicted they would pick up 60 seats — winning by a narrow majority would likely be seen as a disappointment.
Multiple Republican strategists expect to win a minimum of around 225 seats.
Structural factors — like a wave of Democratic retirements and Republicans shoring up GOP-held seats through redistricting — helped give Republicans built-in advantages in the 2022 House map.
A narrow majority would mean that Republicans are able to execute on those structural advantages and flip Democratic-held districts that former President Trump won in 2020 but, despite heavy spending, were unable to dive into territory that Biden won by more than a few points.
“I think we lose the House. Four seats? There’s just no way. But I don’t think we lose as many as people think,” said a former Democratic leadership aide, who predicted Republicans will end up with a numerical advantage between eight and 15 seats.
That, the aide continued, will make it tough for McCarthy to manage the most conservative members of the conference, who are already pushing to impeach Biden and threatening a federal default if they don’t achieve certain policy demands.
“They’ve got him by the balls now, and if it’s close — he does not have what Pelosi does in our caucus,” the source said.
GOP wins healthy majority
A good night for Republicans would mean they successfully captured districts that Biden won by a few points in 2020, such as Rep. Elaine Luria’s (D) Virginia district that broke for Biden by 2 points.
A GOP majority of around 228 to 237 seats, which would mean gaining a net of 15 to 24 seats, would meet expectations of multiple Republican operatives and independent analysts.
It would be a solid win and a manageable cushion for McCarthy, and Republicans would likely take control of committee gavels without excessive bickering about whether leaders did enough to deliver a majority.
The election experts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicted Monday that Republican gains would likely land on the upper end of this range, with a pickup of 24 seats. But they also warned that anything is possible.
“There’s still a fairly wide range of possible outcomes,” said Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s managing editor. “These things always seem obvious after the fact but even a day before there’s often real uncertainty.”
Major red wave
Net GOP gains of 25 seats or more would exceed the expectations of most independent analysts and shoot to the upper limit of what Republican operatives think is possible.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, has invested in Democratic seats where Biden won by about 7 points in 2020 — including those represented by Reps. Angie Craig (Minn.), Kim Schrier (Wash.) and Abigail Spanberger (Va.). Wins there could be the difference between a good night and a great night for Republicans.
Republicans are also reaching for some districts that Biden won by more than 10 points in 2020, such as the New York district where Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, head of House Democrats’ campaign arm, moved to run in this cycle.
Such a substantial majority would give McCarthy room to push his legislative priorities without having to worry too much about GOP defections from hard-line conservatives on the House floor.
While Democrats have been dispirited as their prospects have dimmed heading into Tuesday, some are privately saying that Republican control of one or both chambers of Congress will have at least one benefit: It will give Biden the foil he doesn’t have with Democrats controlling all levers of power, and it would put GOP leaders on the line to accomplish the things they’ve promised — a tall order with Biden still in the White House.
A failure by Republicans to make good on those promises could cause the pendulum of public sentiment to swing back in favor of Democrats two years from now — a prospect that a red wave on Tuesday would insulate against.
Democrats hold on to chamber
It’s the least likely outcome, but not impossible, that Democrats hold the chamber next year.
Polls have been unreliable in recent cycles — the double-digit Democratic gains predicted in 2020 were way off base — and vulnerable lawmakers heading into Tuesday said conditions on the ground are far different from the grim forecasts coming from political prognosticators.
“These races are not just a national referendum,” Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), who is among the most threatened House Democrats this year, told CNN on Monday. “Voters are voting for and against individual candidates in individual districts.”
A Democratic hold would send shockwaves through the House GOP, likely putting McCarthy’s leadership in jeopardy. It could similarly impact the composition of the Democrats’ leadership team, giving Pelosi and her top lieutenants plenty of ammunition to argue that they should remain at the helm — if they so choose.
Most significantly, a Democratic House would empower Biden’s party to control the chamber floor — and the message — surrounding the remaining parts of his policy agenda, which includes a promise to codify Roe v. Wade.
It would also insulate Biden from the many investigations that Republicans are eyeing if the chamber flips, to include probes into last year’s withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and the overseas business dealings of the president’s son Hunter Biden.
The wind is blowing in the direction of Republicans retaking the Senate majority a day before the midterm elections.
The number of paths to a GOP majority has expanded in the past six weeks, putting the party in position to win as many as 54 seats if everything goes their way.
Here’s how the GOP could take back the Senate after two years in the minority.
Pennsylvania
Republicans have made no bones about it: The likelihood of them winning the majority does not happen without a victory in the Keystone State, where Republican Mehmet Oz is running neck and neck against Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D).
Of the roughly five or six states that are still up for grabs, Pennsylvania is the only one where the party is attempting to hold a seat in a true toss-up race. In Wisconsin, there are clear signs that Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is the favorite over Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D).
The Senate Leadership Fund and American Crossroads, two super PACs backed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have spent $54 million on the race — more than any amount spent in any single midterm race.
Fetterman has been ahead in polls for much of the race, but a shaky debate performance that put his recovery from a stroke at center stage delivered more momentum to Oz, who was already rebounding in polls amid steady attacks on Democrats over the economy and crime.
The latest survey from The Hill and Emerson College showed Oz holding a 1 percentage point advantage over Fetterman.
It will be a brutal disappointment for Democrats if Fetterman loses, and a huge win for the GOP. But don’t look for a clear result on Tuesday night. It could take days to know a final result in Pennsylvania.
Nevada
Republicans long viewed Nevada as their best pickup opportunity on the 2022 map.
That view has not changed as former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) has held a slim polling lead over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D).
With a win here, Republicans would force Democrats to take a GOP seat to hold on to the Senate. That shows just how important Pennsylvania would be.
Cortez Masto outraised Laxalt in dollars by a 3-1 margin but has struggled against what has become an increasingly tough national environment.
But the race is no sure thing for the GOP.
Cortez Masto, the first Latina senator, won Hispanic voters by a 29-point margin over former Rep. Joe Heck (R) in 2016. If she can pull a similar number in this race, she’ll probably win.
“Nevada remains the Republicans’ best Senate pickup chance, but that race is nowhere near put away,” Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the University of Virginia’s Sabato Crystal Ball, wrote last week.
The problem is that a recent CBS News-YouGov poll shows she only leads among Latino voters by 18 points.
Georgia
If Republicans lose either Nevada or Pennsylvania, they still have a path to a majority in Georgia, where Republican Herschel Walker is battling Sen. Raphael Warnock (D).
Walker, the famed University of Georgia running back, remains deadlocked with Warnock despite a series of controversies, including women who have come forward to say the anti-abortion candidate pressured them to obtain abortions.
Those scandals have not knocked Walker out, however, and the GOP hopes he can ride a strong national environment and good feelings from his football playing days to victory.
Voters in both parties could be waiting for some time to learn the Georgia winner, however.
If neither candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, the contest will go to a Dec. 6 runoff.
Republican and Democratic strategists alike aren’t expecting either candidate to clear the requisite 50 percent total to sidestep a second contest.
But Republicans are hoping that Walker might creep over the 50 percent mark, since in a runoff he will not be on the ticket with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who is expected to win reelection handily over Democrat Stacey Abrams.
New Hampshire and Arizona
These states should be lumped together for one simple reason: If there’s truly a red wave, one or both could wind up in the GOP column — an idea that was considered improbable a month ago.
If Republicans win one or both of these seats, they will almost certainly win the Senate majority. The fact that both are in play says much about why the GOP is optimistic heading into Tuesday night.
These two contests have some similarities. In addition to the national environment, both feature GOP candidates who have been considered subpar by national Republicans, due in large part to their lackluster fundraising ability. Both are running against sitting Democratic senators.
It is also no accident that Biden is unpopular in both states. According to Emerson College surveys, only 39 percent in each state approve of the president’s work in office.
In New Hampshire, Don Bolduc was a heavy underdog in early September after he emerged from a contentious primary to take on Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) but has seen his stock grow after a super PAC aligned with Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) spent roughly $16 million on advertising, coupled with what Republicans describe as intense on-the-ground efforts.
Meanwhile, Republicans say that the swing-state nature of Arizona has helped Blake Masters close the gap on Sen. Mark Kelly (D). However, Masters will have to overcome being outraised by a nearly 8-to-1 margin by the retired astronaut.
The other factor at play is the governor race, where Republican Kari Lake has opened up a slight advantage over Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) and is trying to pull Masters and other Republicans over the finish line.
Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) comments signaling support for working across the aisle on entitlement programs like Social Security are getting a warm reception from some fiscal conservatives, despite skepticism about the chances of a bipartisan deal in the next Congress.
Discussing where he thinks both sides could find common ground in the next Congress, Manchin recently pointed to shoring up solvency for programs like Social Security and Medicare while pressing for action on tackling the nation’s climbing debt.
“If we don’t look at the trust funds that are going bankrupt, whether they be Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, highway, all the ones — there are tremendous problems right now,” Manchin, a key centrist, said late last week.
Manchin’s comments are in stark contrast to recent Democratic attacks hammering GOP proposals for Social Security and Medicare in the final campaign stretch before Election Day. And it’s a shift that has drawn some early positive reaction from Republicans.
“I gladly welcome any Democrat who puts aside partisan fear-mongering to work with us to ensure Medicare and Social Security return to solvency,” Rep. Kevin Hern (Okla.), head of the conservative Republican Study Committee’s Budget and Spending Task Force, told The Hill on Monday.
“As a longtime advocate of protecting Social Security and Medicare, Representative Smucker looks forward to working with his colleagues to save and strengthen both programs,” Rep. Lloyd Smucker’s (R-Pa.) office also told The Hill.
Both lawmakers are among a handful of Republicans seeking to lead the House Budget Committee in the coming Congress if the party wins control of the House on Tuesday, and who prompted headlines last month over potential spending plans under a GOP majority.
As far as Democrats are concerned, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said Monday that the party would work with “anyone who wants to protect Social Security, Medicare, and other programs that help Americans and their families thrive,” but he cast doubt on chances of a bipartisan compromise.
“Unfortunately, I don’t expect Republicans to join us in that commitment to put people over politics,” he told The Hill.
Hoyer also took aim at Republicans over plans to potentially use the nation’s debt ceiling, which experts say Congress must address in early 2023 or risk a historic default, to secure potential spending cuts and entitlement reforms that many Democrats find unpalatable.
Hern told Bloomberg Government last month that he supports using the debt limit as “a leverage point.” Other Republicans indicated to the outlet they are eyeing potential changes to Social Security and Medicare, such as tightening eligibility requirements and trimming benefits for those on the higher end of the income bracket.
The comments sparked a wave of media coverage while feeding Democratic lines of attack tying Republicans to potential Social Security and Medicare cuts — criticism that GOP leadership has also pushed back on. The attention also shined a light on two programs that experts say could become insolvent in the coming years without reforms.
According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is on track to becoming insolvent in roughly 13 years. And Medicare has about half the time until it could reach the same fate, the group said, citing data from trustees.
If both programs were to become insolvent, it doesn’t they would stop distributing benefits, but they also wouldn’t be able to pay for all of the promised benefits, explained Bob Moffit, senior research fellow in the Center for Health and Welfare Policy at the conservative Heritage Foundation.
“And there will be a reduction in payment for the benefits that will be equal to whatever the revenues are coming in,” he said. “So, if the taxes are not sufficient to pay for all of the benefits, that reduction will take place automatically.”
Republicans have been cautious when it comes to unveiling details about potential changes to Social Security and Medicare, but some have shared inklings as to possible reforms they could try to take on.
One of the proposals outlined in a plan released by the Republican Study Committee, the House’s biggest conservative caucus, would gradually increase the “normal retirement age at a rate of three months per year until it reaches 69 for those reaching age 62 in 2030.” The proposal further plans to “realign the Social Security full retirement age to account for increases in life expectancy since the program’s creation.”
The plan also includes proposals to change age requirements for Medicare eligibility, as well as measures geared toward promoting “better integration of private insurance with the government-run DI (Disability Insurance) system.”
But it’s unclear where Congress could find compromise on the issues. Democrats have pushed back on the GOP proposals, and Republicans have also signaled resistance to ideas that have previously drawn support from some Democrats.
“Republicans have a list of eligibility reforms, and we don’t like the tax increases,” Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told Bloomberg Government last month.
“Either they’re going to have to raise contributions to support the program, or they’re going to have to scale back benefits in order to keep the benefits affordable, given the amount of funds flowing into the trust funds, and both of those things are unpleasant, unpleasant things to do on popular things to do,” said Gary Burtless, a senior economic studies fellow at the left-leaning Brookings Institution.
Burtless said Congress could also raise the maximum level of Americans’ annual earned income that’s subject to the Social Security payroll tax. “The public favors that, and it’s not surprising it does because the only people who have to pay higher taxes under that scenario are people who are already at the maximum taxed earnings amount,” he said.
But experts note Democrats would have to proceed with caution on such an option, considering a key campaign pledge by President Biden to not raise taxes on those making below $400,000 annually.
With Tuesday’s midterms likely to result in the parties splitting control over the levers of government, experts acknowledge the new Congress could see more opportunities for lawmakers to work together, though the political climate adds deep uncertainty over any type of bipartisan deal on entitlement programs.
Richard Johnson, a senior fellow for the Income and Benefits Policy Center at the Urban Institute, said he “wouldn’t be surprised” to see potential changes to Medicare in the next Congress, noting Medicare fixes are almost “an annual event.”
“Medicare has more of a direct impact on government outlays,” he said, explaining part of the program’s funding comes from general revenues, while “Social Security only comes out of the trust fund.”
“We have seen commissions come together and try to hammer out changes that would affect all supports for older people, and these people who don’t have to get elected can come up with these ideas,” he said. “But Congress has never done that, and it’s maybe a little bit of wishful thinking to think that we could solve all these problems at once.”
Former President Trump on Monday said he plans to make a “very big announcement” on Nov. 15 at his Mar-a-Lago estate amid growing speculation that he is mounting another bid for the White House.
“I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, Nov. 15, at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla.,” Trump said toward the end of a rally near Dayton, Ohio, where he was campaigning for a host of candidates, including Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance, the night before the midterm elections.
“We want nothing to distract from the importance of tomorrow,” Trump said.
Earlier Monday, two sources familiar with talks said that Trump had been in discussions with some aides about potentially announcing a 2024 presidential bid at the Ohio rally. But the former president did not formally announce his candidacy later that evening and did not reveal the details of what would be announced next week or why it would be on that day.
Axios was first to report on Friday morning that Trump and his team were eyeing Nov. 14 as the possible launch day for his 2024 campaign.
At a rally in Iowa on Thursday, Trump gave his strongest indication yet that he would mount another bid for the White House telling a group of supporters he was “very, very probably do it again, OK?”
“Get ready. That’s all I’m telling you. Very soon. Get ready. Get ready,” he said.
In Miami on Sunday where he was campaigning for Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Trump again teased a potential run for the White House, encouraging the crowd to tune into the following night’s rally.
“I will probably have to do it again but stay tuned,” he said Sunday night in Miami. “Stay tuned to tomorrow night in the great state of Ohio.”
Democrats are pinning their hopes for holding the Senate majority on the ultra-competitive contests in Pennsylvania and Georgia, two battlegrounds that both parties believe will be pivotal in determining control of the upper chamber on Election Day.
Despite a burst of momentum for Republicans over the past month, the Senate races in the two states remain stubbornly close. In Pennsylvania, Republican nominee Mehmet Oz and Democrat John Fetterman are deadlocked. The same is true in Georgia, where a slew of recent polling has shown Republican Herschel Walker taking a slim lead over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D).
The tightening races have prompted a late-breaking flurry of political activity. Both Democrats and Republicans have poured millions of dollars into the states in the closing phase of the campaigns. And over the weekend, President Biden and former President Obama reunited in Pennsylvania in a last-minute bid to boost Fetterman.
“Democrats are drawing great crowds,” said T.J. Rooney, a former chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. “There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm that seems to have manifested itself in the early vote, so all signals point in a very, very positive direction.”
The eleventh-hour efforts in Georgia and Pennsylvania amount to an acknowledgment of the outsize role the two states have taken on in the battle for control of the Senate. Democrats are defending the narrowest possible majority, and a net gain of even one seat for Republicans would mean a GOP-controlled Senate for at least the next two years.
“Pennsylvania represents the traditional sort of old Democratic blue wall, whereas Georgia is looked at as the future of where swing state politics is heading,” Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist, said. “Add on the fact that they could decide who controls the Senate, and I think it’s easy to see why they mean so much for Democrats right now.”
Both Republicans and Democrats have spent massively on the two Senate races. According to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, more than $260 million has been spent or reserved on the airwaves in Pennsylvania, while the spending in Georgia has topped $240 million.
To be sure, the Senate battleground this year is much larger than just Georgia and Pennsylvania. Republicans are targeting Democratic senators in states like Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire, while Democrats are hoping to oust Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in Wisconsin.
But the races in Georgia and Pennsylvania have proven particularly volatile. Earlier this year, Fetterman appeared favored to defeat Oz and flip a Republican-held seat for Democrats. But the outlook began to change over the fall as Oz sharpened his attacks against Fetterman, accusing Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor of being soft on crime.
Fetterman also ran up against questions about his health and fitness to serve in the Senate after he suffered a stroke earlier this year.
Likewise, Walker has managed to close a once distinct polling gap with Warnock, prompting speculation that the race could head into overtime. If neither candidate manages to clear the 50 percent threshold needed to win the election outright, they’ll advance to a Dec. 6 runoff, potentially leaving party control of the Senate hanging in the balance for another month.
“At this point, I think it’s less of a question of if there’s a runoff. It’s something that I’m expecting,” one Georgia Democratic strategist said. “I think we’re going to be hearing about Georgia for a while longer.”
Democrats are also preparing for a drawn-out battle in Pennsylvania, where votes could take days to count, leaving the race unresolved until well after Election Day. In a memo released on Monday, Fetterman’s campaign set the stage for a “red-to-blue shift” once Democratic-leaning mail-in ballots begin to be tabulated.
In one of the latest signs that control of the Senate could come down to Pennsylvania and Georgia, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics shifted the two Senate races toward the GOP on Monday, rating them both as favoring Republicans.
Republicans argue that the Democratic enthusiasm in both states is “misplaced.” However, one national GOP strategist told The Hill that Republicans are not declaring victory in the Senate just yet.
“Nobody wants to be too excited,” the strategist said. “There’s a quiet optimism among Republicans, but no one’s thumping their chest and taking a victory lap yet.”
However, Democrats in Pennsylvania are pushing back against grouping Fetterman in with the party’s other candidates in political forecasts.
“Anyone who tries to make a case about John’s chances using the generic ballot is not going to be successful,” one Pennsylvania-based Democratic operative told The Hill. “He’s not a generic Democrat.”
“In a cycle like this, that’s really valuable. He does run on his own,” the operative added.
But Fetterman and Walker are not the only candidates on the ballot in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Both states are also home to high-profile gubernatorial races. Incumbent Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) lead in their respective races.
Democrats argue that Fetterman is more likely to benefit from riding Shapiro’s coattails than Walker with Kemp’s. Some of the party’s strategists are also betting that voters in Pennsylvania and Georgia could be willing to split their tickets.
“I think it’s possible that there can be a kind of divided message that is sent,” Rooney said. “I think at the end of the day people can understand the benefit of having a Democratic control in the Senate and they might take out their frustrations down-ballot.”
“There [are] these kinds of unique variables that at the end of the day could very, very well mean that Pennsylvania helps keep the Senate in Democratic control, while the pain in the House might be more widespread,” he added.
Other Democrats in Pennsylvania say that while they expect a close race, the energy on the ground plays in their favor.
“As unscientific as it is, the vibes are good,” the Democratic operative based in Pennsylvania said.
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By Caroline Vakil
With the pathway to the Senate narrowed to a handful of battleground states, Republicans and Democrats are looking to polls to make sense of their odds of taking the majority in the upper chamber on Tuesday.
While polling hasn’t always been reflective of actual voter turnout and many of these races will likely not be called for days, polls have offered a snapshot of voter sentiment throughout the midterms and could hold some clues of what to expect in the coming days.
Here’s a look at recent polls in seven key races:
Nevada
Nevada Republican Senate candidate Adam Laxalt on Aug. 4, 2022, in Las Vegas, left, and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., on April 26, 2022, in Washington, right. (AP Photo/John Locher, left, Jacquelyn Martin)
Polls have mostly shown Republican Adam Laxalt with an edge over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in the Nevada Senate race. RealClearPolitics’s polling average has Laxalt ahead 2.8 points, while a separate polling average from the data website FiveThirtyEight had the Republican up 1.4 points.
In polls where he has the advantage, Laxalt pulls ahead of Cortez Masto by anywhere from 2 to 6 percentage points. At the same time, several polls also show Cortez Masto leading Laxalt, but she’s generally between 1 and 2 percentage points ahead. There are a few factors at play in this state. For one, the economy has been seen as a top-of-mind issue for a plurality of voters given Nevada’s hospitality- and tourism-focused economy and how it was impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Its tourism and hospitality industries also present an added challenge to lawmakers, who must reintroduce themselves to voters given Nevada’s transient nature.
Arizona
Blake Masters (R) and Mark Kelly (D). (AP Photo/ Ross D. Franklin)
Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is likely favored to win reelection in the Arizona Senate race against Republican Blake Masters, as most public polling shows the former NASA astronaut ahead of the venture capitalist, though by narrow margins. A polling average from FiveThirtyEight shows Kelly ahead more than 1 point, while a separate polling average from RealClearPolitics shows Kelly up 1 point.
Most surveys show Kelly with a single-digit lead over Masters, though several recent polls have shown the two tied — and one even has Masters ahead of Kelly by a narrow margin. An Emerson College Polling survey conducted Oct. 30 through Nov. 1 reports Masters leading Kelly by a slim 1-point margin, 48 percent to 47 percent, among very likely voters.
It’s still too early to know what effect third-party candidate Marc Victor’s decision to drop out and endorse Masters will have on the race at this point, since Victor announced that well after early voting had started.
Wisconsin
This combination of photos shows Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., left, and Democratic Senate candidate and challenger Mandela Barnes before a televised debate on Oct. 7, 2022, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
While Sen. Ron Johnson is seen as the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the Senate, recent polls suggest that he will likely prevail for a third term. Polling averages from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight show Johnson ahead 2.8 points and 3.4 points, respectively.
Most recent polls show Johnson ahead between 1 and 6 points, and few recent polls show Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes leading Johnson. If they do, Barnes is up only 2 or 3 points — a different dynamic since August, for example, when some polls showed the state’s lieutenant governor enjoying an edge.
Jessica Taylor, an editor at the Cook Political Report, changed the nonpartisan election handicapper’s rating of the race from “toss up” to “lean Republican” earlier this month, given a slightly more favorable political environment. That’s not an unfamiliar forecast from other competitive Senate races that have since tightened after Democrats led their Republican challengers at various points in the summer.
Georgia
This combination of photos shows, Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., speaking to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, Aug. 3, 2021, left, and Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker speaking in Perry, Ga., Sept. 25, 2021. (AP Photo)
While polls show Republican Herschel Walker with a slight edge over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) in Georgia, it’s likely that the race will head to a runoff next month. Polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics show Walker up 1 point and 0.6 points, respectively.
When The Daily Beast reported in early October its first story alleging that Walker had asked a woman whom he had a relationship with at the time to get an abortion, polling afterward suggested that report and others that followed caused a temporary hit to his campaign. But given how quickly Republicans have coalesced around their candidate, polling suggests Walker still has a shot at the Senate.
RealClearPolitics projects the race will go into a Dec. 6 runoff, while FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Walker with an average of 47.7 percent support compared to Warnock’s 46.7 percent. One of those candidates would need to receive at least 50 percent support to avoid a second race.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania Democratic candidate for Senate John Fetterman and Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz. (Greg Nash)
Pennsylvania’s Senate race is considered Democrats’ best pickup opportunity, but the race has considerably tightened in recent weeks. Though Democrat John Fetterman enjoyed flattering polls over the summer and into the fall showing him leading Republican Mehmet Oz, the dynamic of his and many other Senate races have shifted as voters’ minds returned to issues like crime and the economy.
There were also questions about whether Fetterman’s debate performance last month against Oz would negatively affect the Democrat’s election chances. While several polls released since the debate have shown Oz ahead of Fetterman by between 1 and 3 points — including an Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey with Oz at 48 percent and Fetterman at 46 percent — it’s not clear how voters will weigh the debate, if at all.
Still, polling averages from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight show the race will be a dead heat. A polling average from RealClearPolitics shows Oz ahead at 0.1 point, while FiveThirtyEight has Fetterman ahead 0.1 point.
New Hampshire
This combination of file photos shows Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., on Oct. 11, 2022, in Rochester, N.H., left, and Don Bolduc, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, Oct. 5, 2022, in Auburn, N.H. (AP Photo)
Before the September GOP Senate primary, some Republicans were ambivalent about how competitive the New Hampshire Senate race would be if retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc prevailed as the GOP nominee. Outside Republican spending poured into the state, only for several groups to reverse course as polls showed Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) maintaining a lead over Bolduc.
But the Senate GOP campaign arm reversed course again and decided to launch a seven-figure ad buy in the state. Still, only a couple of recent polls have shown Bolduc ahead — and mostly by 1 point — over Hassan. More polls have consistently put Hassan ahead of the Republican, though it’s still likely to be a close race.
A polling average from FiveThirtyEight has Hassan up 2 points, while one from RealClearPolitics has the senator up 1 point.
Ohio
Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, on March 28, 2022, in Wilberforce, Ohio, left, and Republican candidate JD Vance on Sept. 17, 2022, in Youngstown, Ohio. (AP Photo/Paul Vernon)
Democrats have lauded Senate hopeful Tim Ryan’s (D) campaign in Ohio as the congressman has kept the race competitive against Republican J.D. Vance between the summer and the fall. And while Democrats believe this could be the year they elect a second Democrat to statewide office, polls are showing a better night for Vance.
For one, polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics show a much higher lead for a Republican in a competitive Senate race than the others mentioned here, with Vance ahead 5.4 points and 7.5 points, respectively. Some recent polling has suggested the Republican has even widened his lead.
An Emerson College Polling survey conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1 showed Vance ahead of Ryan among very likely voters, 51 percent to 43 percent, compared to another Emerson College poll in October that had Vance and Ryan at 46 percent and 45 percent, respectively.
Former President Trump will deliver remarks during a rally in Ohio on Monday night, seeking to boost Republican J.D. Vance in his Senate race against Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), though it’s possible Trump might steal the show for himself.
Speculation has been growing that Trump could use the event to declare his own 2024 presidential bid, a move he has long floated but thus far has declined to make official.
Donald Trump’s signals that he may soon launch his 2024 candidacy are triggering discussions over whether to appoint a special counsel to oversee the numerous criminal probes into the former president — with legal experts warning the idea holds little benefit for the Justice Department.
Justice Department leaders have been discussing the issue more seriously, according to CNN, amid reports that Trump could announce a presidential bid as early as Monday night.
Several legal observers interviewed by The Hill said it would be a bad idea for the Justice Department to appoint a special counsel.
“If they’re going to do a special counsel because they think that it will protect the prosecution of the former president from political attack on the grounds that the indictment is politically motivated, that’s a fool’s errand because going that way will have minimal impact on the width and breadth of the criticism,” said Jeff Robbins, an attorney now in private practice who has served as both a federal prosecutor and a Senate investigative counsel.
Legal experts say Attorney General Merrick Garland would have to be aware that many Trump supporters will be unsatisfied by a prosecution no matter who takes the reins.
“If the appointment of independent counsel was meant to forestall criticism, that wouldn’t work anyway,” said Michael Bromwich, who served as the Justice Department’s inspector general during the Clinton administration and as a prosecutor for the independent counsel that investigated the Iran-Contra scandal.
He said people who “don’t like any prosecutor who decides to charge Trump are going to find a way to dislike it.”
“And so the attacks on Merrick Garland will exist if he keeps the case, and they would exist if he appointed a special counsel to take over the decisionmaking authority in the case,” Bromwich said. “So I think he’s found out it’s a no-win situation for him. And I think he understands that.”
The Justice Department has its own regulations about when to appoint a special counsel to oversee an investigation, but it ultimately gives the attorney general broad discretion over when to do so.
Andrew Weissmann, who was one of the lead prosecutors on the Mueller investigation, said he suspects the Justice Department long ago evaluated whether to bring in a special counsel and decided against it but is reevaluating given Trump’s potential announcement.
“I think it’s responsible if they’re looking at it again,” he said.
“To me, I took that as that is what a Merrick Garland Justice Department would do. It’s a rule-of-law place. There’s a regulation that says you’re supposed to examine these issues. The facts may change, so they need to look to see whether their assessment should change if the facts change. And I suspect they’ll come out at the same place,” he said.
He added that an early announcement of a presidential run by Trump would change little since Trump is the “de facto leader of the Republican Party.”
“So I just didn’t know that the analysis changes a lot,” Weissmann said.
A campaign kickoff by Trump would only increase timeline pressures on the Justice Department. Experts say appointing a special counsel would be a lengthy process for a Justice Department that doesn’t have time to lose.
Beyond recruiting someone to take the role, a special counsel would need time to get read into the two Trump investigations — one for his mishandling of presidential records found at Mar-a-Lago and the other involving his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
“It would slow it down enormously. And so one, I think, pretty strong argument is you want as little as possible of this investigation and any charges to overlap with the homestretch of the presidential campaign,” Bromwich said.
And it would likely require significant Justice Department resources anyway.
“I think that appointing a special counsel would in many ways be more symbolic than real because they not only have to rely on work already done by Justice Department lawyers. They probably would have to have many of those lawyers detail to the special counsel in order to continue doing the work because that’s where the expertise resides,” Bromwich added.
Robbins said such a move would aid arguments that the special counsel is nothing more than a “disingenuous fig leaf.”
It’s also not clear who the special counsel could be or if would have appeal to a strong candidate.
“If there was anybody whose credibility as a nonpartisan, right-down-the-middle prosecutor that should have been impregnable, it was Bob Mueller. Highly thought of on both sides of the aisle, FBI director approved for an extension by both sides of the aisle — the whole drill. It didn’t affect the attack on him from Trump World one iota,” Robbins said.
Weissmann said he thinks the environment for special counsels has only gotten worse since he aided with Mueller’s probe into Trump and Russia.
“There’s a playbook of vilifying a special counsel. I never thought we could be in a more volatile [time] than when Robert Mueller was special counsel. Even though there were lots of lots of threats, I think it’s gone to a new level, which is hard to imagine,” he said.
Robbins, however, also sees little benefit to looking outside the Justice Department when what he sees as the perfect man for the moment is already in the job.
“How do you find somebody who is better suited to appear above the fray than Merrick Garland, a former highly respected, mild-mannered, by-the-book, famously judicious, famously restrained court of appeals justice [who] has at every turn endeavored to avoid presenting as a partisan and who is not a partisan by nature,” he said.
“How do you find somebody who was better than that to serve as a nonpartisan face of such a delicate prosecution?” Robbins asked.
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Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in a new interview said the attack on her husband, Paul Pelosi, will affect the decision she makes of whether to retire from Congress should Democrats lose control of the House in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
“I have to say my decision will be affected about what happened the last week or two,” Pelosi told CNN’s Anderson Cooper in her first sit-down interview since the attack on her husband.
Pressed further on if her decision will be impacted by the attack, Pelosi told Cooper “yes.”
Pelosi’s full interview with CNN is scheduled to air at 8 p.m. on “AC360.”
Pelosi’s comments come less than two weeks after her husband, 82, was injured during a break-in at the couple’s San Francisco home. Authorities allege that David DePape, 42, broke into the residence through a glass door in the early hours of Oct. 28, threatened to hold the Speaker hostage and hit Paul Pelosi over the head with a hammer. The Nancy Pelosi was in Washington, D.C., at the time.
They also come just before the midterm elections, when Republicans are favored to take control of the House — an outcome that would put an end to Pelosi’s tenure as Speaker and raise questions as to whether the longtime leader of the House Democratic Caucus will retire.
In 2018, Pelosi, 82, promised that she would give up the Speaker’s gavel at the end of this term, but some Democrats think that she may retain her position if the party pulls out an upset and holds control of the lower chamber.
Such a result would be a big surprise, however, with Republicans widely favored to win the House.
The Speaker herself has been mum about her future plans.
Paul Pelosi was transported to a hospital following the October incident, where he underwent successful surgery to treat a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and hands.
He was released from the hospital on Thursday, but “remains under doctors’ care as he continues to progress on a long recovery process and convalescence,” according to a statement from the Speaker.
On Friday, in her first on-camera remarks since the attack, the Nancy Pelosi said her husband “will be well,” noting “it’s going to be a long haul.”
In another clip of Pelosi’s interview with CNN, the Speaker described the moment she learned about the attack.
“I was sleeping in Washington, D.C., I had just gotten in the night before from San Francisco, and I hear the doorbell ring and think, it’s five something, I look up I see it’s five, it must be the wrong apartment. No. It rings again and then bang, bang, bang, bang, bang on the door,” she told Cooper.
“So I run to the door and I was very scared, I see the Capitol Police, and they said we have to come in to talk to you,” she added.
Pelosi said her children and grandchildren immediately came to mind, telling Cooper, “I never thought it would be Paul because, you know, I knew he wouldn’t be out and about, shall we say.”
“And so they came in,” she said, referring to the police. “At that time we didn’t even know where he was or what his condition was, we just knew there was an assault on him in our home.”
DePape faces a number of state and federal charges, including attempted murder and attempted kidnapping. He entered a not guilty plea for the state charges and faces between 13 years and life in prison for those felonies.
Tensions between former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) are simmering, with considerations about the 2024 presidential election creeping into view as Republicans hope for big wins in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Trump over the weekend took his most direct swipe at DeSantis to date during a rally in Pennsylvania, when he dubbed the governor and potential GOP primary opponent “Ron DeSanctimonious.”
But the former president dialed back the rhetoric after it received a lukewarm reception, urging Floridians on Sunday to vote for DeSantis on Tuesday.
The timing of Trump’s attack on DeSantis raised eyebrows from a number of conservatives, including some who are traditionally Trump allies, who felt it was counterproductive to go after a GOP governor who is on the ballot this week.
“Trump is getting what he wanted out of it with coverage, but it is also a weak attack,” said one former Trump campaign adviser, who called it “petty” to do it so close to Election Day.
One Florida-based GOP strategist said the attack showed Trump is aware of the momentum around a possible DeSantis presidential bid and was seeking to address it head on.
The former president appeared to be firing a warning shot to any would-be challengers in a 2024 GOP presidential primary during the Saturday rally, which was intended to boost Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano.
As a screen in the background displayed polling numbers Trump had picked out that showed him leading among voters over potential primary challengers, Trump noted he had 71 percent in one poll, while “Ron DeSanctimonious” was at 10 percent.
The budding Trump-DeSantis rivalry was already being discussed after Trump announced a rally in Miami on Sunday for GOP candidates that did not include the governor, who is seeking a second term and who earned Trump’s backing in 2018.
But the rivalry did not escalate on Sunday. DeSantis held a separate event in Sun City Center, Fla., where he did not directly mention the former president as he touted his record on the coronavirus pandemic and the economy.
Trump, for his part, directly encouraged voters to back DeSantis.
“You’re going to reelect the wonderful, the great friend of mine Marco Rubio to the United States Senate, and you are going to reelect Ron DeSantis as your governor,” Trump told supporters.
Friction between Trump and DeSantis had reportedly been growing in recent months, as the Florida governor saw his star rise as he fought the Biden administration on the use of masks in schools, immigration and other culture war issues.
Trump has prodded at DeSantis in the past, but not as directly or in front of a crowd of supporters like he did on Saturday. And the Florida governor has previously shrugged off talk of a rift between the two men as a media creation.
“I think this is what the media does,” DeSantis said in January when asked about his relationship with Trump. “You cannot fall for the bait . . . you know what they’re trying to do, so just don’t take it. Just keep on keeping on. We need everybody united for a big red wave in 2022.”
But the two men appear to be on a collision course.
Trump is likely to announce a 2024 presidential bid before the end of the month, according to sources in his orbit, and DeSantis has the backing of a number of conservatives who are eager to move on from Trump out of concern he is the one candidate who could lose the general election.
One former Trump White House official argued DeSantis’ weak spot is that he would eventually have to go after the former president, who in many ways helped fuel DeSantis’ political rise in Florida.
“Once that happens, the Trump base will turn on him,” the former official said.
But many Republicans are hoping any looming Trump-DeSantis battle will remain on hold at least until after Tuesday.
Both men have a lot riding on the midterm results. For Trump, wins for his hand-picked Senate candidates in Arizona, Ohio, Georgia and Pennsylvania could strengthen his grip on the GOP and give him momentum to ride into a potential 2024 announcement.
DeSantis, meanwhile, could win his re-election contest handily and tout GOP gains in Congress in Florida as a result of his leadership of the state, bolstering his own case to be the next face of the party.
“The reality is, regardless of if Blake Masters wins [in Arizona], regardless of if Oz wins [in Pennsylvania], Ron DeSantis is winning by a record amount,” said Sam Nunberg, a former adviser to Trump’s 2016 campaign. “And that’s going to continue his upward trajectory toward being able to win the nomination in 2024. Donald Trump is the front-runner, but he’s not a formidable front-runner.”
