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Five big questions that the midterm results will answer

Tuesday’s midterm elections aren’t only about control of Congress.

The results will also offer clues as to where American politics is going, how President Biden will fare in the rest of his first term, and who might be vying for the presidency against him in 2024

Here are five of the biggest questions that will be answered when the voters deliver their verdict.

How bad does it get for Democrats?

Momentum has been on the side of the GOP in the campaign’s final weeks. 

The hopes Democrats once harbored about retaining their slim House majority have dimmed. But the president’s party colleagues still believe they have a fighting chance of holding onto the Senate.

As with so much else in politics, how the result pans out relative to expectations will be crucial.

If Republicans were to end up with a House majority of 10 or so seats and fail to capture the Senate, most Democrats would be content to lick their wounds and fight another day.

But big Republican gains would force a much tougher reckoning. And that kind of result is not out of the question. 

In the House, there are around 35 truly competitive seats, and 25 of them are currently in Democrats’ hands. The final projection from University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato and his team, released Monday, suggested Republicans would make a net gain of 24 House seats — enough for a majority of almost 40. 

In the Senate, it’s possible that tight races in Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania could all go against Biden’s party.

If that happens, the recriminations will begin within hours. 

There have already been some signs of in-fighting, with California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Faiz Shakir, the former campaign manager for Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) 2020 presidential bid, complaining about their party’s messaging.

How do the MAGA candidates do?

Former President Donald Trump looks to be on the cusp of declaring his 2024 candidacy. 

It’s even possible that he could announce as soon as Monday evening, where he is scheduled to address a rally in Ohio. 

One of Trump’s most fervent backers in Congress, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), offered a rationale for doing just that on Twitter. 

“His candidates won the primaries. Biden’s central message was the ‘ULTRA MAGA’ scare. And we are going to win BIGLY! Trump deserves all the credit for this wave election & announcing tonight he will seize it,” Gaetz wrote.

Whether or not Trump takes the plunge on Monday, Gaetz’s tweet showed just how much the midterms are being seen as a proxy election for Trump himself.

The bullishness in Trump’s camp is understandable. Even his more controversial picks are polling more strongly now than they were earlier in their campaigns.

Former football star Herschel Walker has come through earlier struggles to have at least a 50-50 chance of ousting incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.). 

In Ohio, author and GOP Senate nominee JD Vance now appears to have a significant edge over Rep. Tim Ryan (D). 

Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake — one of the most Trump-like of all the candidates in major races — appears to have a slight advantage over Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs.

For all that, though, no-one knows better than Trump that the polls don’t always predict the right outcome.

An unexpectedly poor night would sharpen questions, eve within the GOP, about the electoral consequences of the former president’s inflammatory approach.

What is the electoral impact of the abortion issue?

This is one of the biggest — and most important — unknowns on Tuesday.

The Supreme Court took its most seismic action for years in late June when it struck down the constitutional guarantee of a right to abortion established by 1973’s Roe v. Wade decision.

In the aftermath, Democrats ticked up in the polls — for a while.

Of late, however, Democratic fortunes have waned again — suggesting to some that the political impact of the Supreme Court decision might have begun to lose its edge.

Still, polling on abortion is notoriously tricky, in part because so much depends upon the phrasing of the question.

A NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll conducted at the end of October found about 17 percent of registered voters citing abortion as the most important issue in determining their vote — a sizable number, for sure, but well behind the 44 percent who chose inflation. 

On the other hand, an Economist/YouGov poll taken at roughly the same time found that 51 percent of all adults — and 60 percent of women — said they would be thinking about abortion “a lot” as they cast their votes this year.

Another factor to consider is that voters in five states will be weighing in on abortion-related ballot measures on Tuesday.

One thing’s for sure: if Democrats have an unexpectedly good night on Tuesday, the abortion issue will be a big part of the explanation.

Does the Democratic hold on Latino voters weaken further?

One of the most striking — and surprising — macro political developments of recent years has been the dilution of Latino support for the Democratic Party.

Former President Trump performed better with Latino voters, despite his hardline rhetoric on illegal immigration, than the 2012 GOP nominee, the much more conventional Mitt Romney.

Trump even showed some improvement between 2016 and 2020 as he went down to overall defeat.

In the 2020 election, for instance, Biden carried Florida’s Miami-Dade County by just seven points. Four years previously, Hillary Clinton had won there by 30 points.

Republicans have also been enthused about the inroads they have made in the border counties of south Texas.

At least two of Tuesday’s marquee Senate match-ups are in states with significant Latino populations: Arizona and Nevada. In the latter, the nation’s first Latina senator, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D), is in serious peril.

But keep an eye on three Texas House races too — the 15th District, the 28th District and the 34th District. 

The results there will be seen as a broad harbinger of what is to come in the battle for Latino voters.

How do potential 2024 candidate fare?

Beyond Trump, who faces only a verdict by proxy, there are other 2024 contenders who will receive much more direct judgements on Tuesday.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is expected to win reelection comfortably over his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Charlie Crist. The same goes for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), against whom former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) appears to be headed for another defeat.

The margin of victory for DeSantis will be particularly important, given Florida’s status as a battleground state, albeit one that is increasingly shaded Republican red. A big win would boost his allies’ argument that he could be the most electable GOP nominee in 2024.

But it’s not as if ramifications for 2024 will be felt only on the Republican side.

A really bad night for Democrats would unquestionably stoke chatter that Biden should step aside at the end of his first term. 

In that scenario, there are already other Democrats, including Newsom, who might want to fill the gap.

There is also the possibility of a Democrat outperforming the national party in a way that might vault him or her up the presidential rankings. 

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is the most obvious example, so long as she fends off her Republican challenger, Tudor Dixon.

Source: TEST FEED1

Talk of early Trump 2024 announcement heats up with Monday bid a possibility

Former President Trump has been in discussions with some aides about potentially announcing a 2024 presidential bid as early as Monday night, according to two sources familiar with the talks.

The sources, who requested anonymity to discuss the conversations, said Trump has been mulling an announcement during a Monday night rally in Ohio, which is ostensibly intended to boost support for GOP Senate candidate JD Vance ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.

No decision is final, the sources noted.

Axios reporter Jonathan Swan first tweeted that Republicans would be closely watching Trump’s Ohio rally, and that the former president may be accelerating his timeline to announce his candidacy.

Speculation about an announcement from Trump has ratcheted up significantly in recent weeks, with the former president himself nodding at the anticipation at recent rallies and saying that supporters should watch the Ohio rally.

“I ran twice, I won twice and I did much better the second time than the first,” Trump said Sunday at a rally in Miami. “In order to make our country successful, safe and glorious, I probably have to do it again. Stay tuned tomorrow night in the great state of Ohio. Stay tuned.”

Trump allies and aides have counseled him in both directions, with some urging him to announce as early as possible to clear the field of potential challengers and potentially complicate a Department of Justice investigation into whether he mishandled classified documents.

“To all the press texting & calling me: Trump should announce tonight,” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), one of Trump’s most ardent congressional allies, tweeted Monday. “His candidates won the primaries. Biden’s central message was the ‘ULTRA MAGA’ scare. And we are going to win BIGLY! Trump deserves all the credit for this wave election & announcing tonight he will seize it.”

Others in Trump’s orbit have cautioned him against an early announcement that might step on the GOP’s midterm messaging.

“I give him a ton of credit for not announcing this year, for not stepping in the way of the midterm candidates, which a lot of people around him – who, frankly, need him for their next meal, and their next gig, and their next center of power – were urging him and begging him, and leaking to a lot of you that he would be announcing any moment,” former Trump campaign manager and White House counselor Kellyanne Conway told reporters last week.

“I’m glad that he didn’t do that,” she continued. “That was certainly my advice from the beginning, you know, wait until after the midterms if you do it at all.”

Polls have shown Trump remains popular with the vast majority of Republicans, and he made a point at a Saturday rally to read off polls that show him leading other would-be presidential candidates like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and former Vice President Mike Pence. 

But polls have also shown a majority of independents and a growing number of Republicans would rather see another candidate. While Trump would be a formidable candidate in a GOP primary thanks to his loyal base of supporters, he also carries significant baggage. 

He is under multiple investigations for his conduct around the 2020 election and after leaving office, and polls have shown many Americans hold him responsible for the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the Capitol where his supporters sought to halt the certification of the 2020 election.

Source: TEST FEED1

Jackson issues first Supreme Court opinion with dissent

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson on Monday issued her first opinion since joining the Supreme Court, writing a dissent over the court’s refusal to hear an appeal from a death row inmate.

Jackson, the nation’s first Black female justice and the court’s only former public defender, expressed her view in a brief, two-page dissent that was joined by fellow liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor.

Arguing that inmate Davel Chinn’s case should have been returned to a lower appeals court for further proceedings, Jackson said a lower court applied the wrong legal standard when weighing the extent to which evidence that Chinn claims was improperly withheld might have helped him at trial.

“Because Chinn’s life is on the line, and given the substantial likelihood that the suppressed records would have changed the outcome at trial based on the Ohio courts’ own representations … I would summarily reverse to ensure that the Sixth Circuit conducts its materiality analysis under the proper standard,” Jackson wrote.

The court’s refusal to take up Chinn’s appeal means fewer than four justices voted to hear it. In keeping with common practice, the justices’ vote count was not made public.

Chinn was convicted and sentenced to death for an aggravated murder he committed in 1989. He maintains that prosecutors failed to inform him that their key witness had a serious intellectual disability, which he claims would have undermined the jury’s confidence in the witness’s credibility.

“Justices Jackson and Sotomayor recognized the injustice in upholding Davel Chinn’s conviction and death sentence when the State suppressed exculpatory evidence that, based on the Ohio Courts’ own representations, was likely to result in an acquittal,” said Rachel Troutman, an attorney for Chinn. “Ohio must not exacerbate the mistakes of the past by pursuing Mr. Chinn’s execution.”  

Officials with the Ohio attorney general’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Jackson was sworn in as the Supreme Court’s newest member in June.

Updated: 11:55 a.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

The Hill's Morning Report — Voters have listening; this week they speak

Editor’s note: The Hill’s Morning Report is our daily newsletter that dives deep into Washington’s agenda. To subscribe, click here or fill out the box below.

On Tuesday, voters get to speak and be counted.

Midterm candidates’ voices are raspy and ragged from round-the-clock rallies and speeches. They’ve uttered final jabs and jeers, looked backward and ahead and run out of ways to be heard by the tiny fraction of undecided citizens who need a nudge to turn out. 

Big-name surrogates — pulled onstage by Democrats in the final hours of key contests in which plenty of voters say they want change rather than more of the same — switched from boasts about accomplishments to ominous warnings that the GOP’s vision is risky business.

Former President Clinton, at a rally in Brooklyn to support vulnerable New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), said Republican candidates have seized on inflation and crime and told voters, “I want you to be scared. And I want you to be mad. And the last thing I want you to do is think.”

Republicans, in turn, said over the weekend that political change can’t come soon enough. “These people don’t just need to lose. They need to lose by a lot. They need to get the message,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told a rally in Miami (The New York Times). 

Former President Trump, an in-demand surrogate, and Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, seeking reelection, appeared separately in the Sunshine State, underscoring their rivalry as the governor is increasingly viewed as a potential White House contender. On Saturday during a Pennsylvania rally, Trump called the governor “Ron DeSanctimonious” (NY Post). The former president, who is teasing his own presidential campaign plans, will lead a rally for Republicans in Dayton, Ohio, tonight. “Stay tuned,” he told a crowd in Florida on Sunday.

President Biden was in New York on Sunday to try to help Hochul, who faces a fierce challenge from Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York. During a half-hour pitch for the governor Sunday night at Sarah Lawrence College, Biden said Zeldin “talks a good game on crime,” but “it’s all talk” (The New York Times).

“Kathy’s opponent is siding with the NRA,” Biden said, referring to the National Rifle Association.

The president today will be in Maryland to stump for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wes Moore.

▪ The Washington Post: Here are some of Biden’s recent errors of fact during campaign appearances. The Fact Checker issued a “bottomless Pinocchio.”

▪ The Washington Post: Trump’s speeches use dozens of lies, exaggerations to draw contrasts with Biden.

From Washington state to Pennsylvania and from Nevada to Georgia, the suspense over Senate contests is described as high-stakes and white-knuckle. “Dead heat,” is how FiveThirtyEight charted the Senate races as of Sunday.

Republicans insist they are confident they’ll control the House next year. And judging from polling and anxious Democratic attention in districts Biden won just two years ago, GOP optimism appears well-placed.

Republicans hold significant advantages when it comes to the economy and inflation, which are central concerns during this fall’s contests. GOP candidates appear poised to claim a majority in the House, where they need a net gain of five seats, according to responses in a Washington Post-ABC News poll of registered and likely voters released on Sunday (The Washington Post).

While Democrats have pulled even with Republicans in enthusiasm, Biden remains unpopular and voters express deep dissatisfaction about the state of the country, according to the final national NBC News poll of the 2022 midterms. Forty-eight percent of likely voters said they prefer Congress under Democrats’ control next year while 47 percent said they prefer a Republican-controlled Congress (NBC News). 

In some battleground state races, analysts have been asked if ticket-splitting could play an impactful role this year. The Hill’s Max Greenwood reports that the answer is yes. In Pennsylvania and Georgia there are suggestions that voters may be willing to cross party lines to support or oppose some candidates. 

One fact already notched in history books: There has been record early voting in the 2022 midterms, exceeding 2018. More than 40 million ballots have been cast as of Sunday afternoon, according to the United States Election Project.

▪ The Hill: Here is when voting locations close in every state on Tuesday.

▪ Nexstar explainer: What happens to voters’ ballots after Election Day?

Related Articles

▪ The Hill, CNN, The New York Times: Possible indictment by the Justice Department of former President Trump in one or both investigations into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his alleged mishandling of national security documents loom over the midterm elections.

▪ The Hill’s Niall Stanage, who like everyone is eyeing the possibility that Trump may announce his candidacy on Nov. 14, created a ranking of 10 Republicans the columnist sees as most likely to be their party’s next presidential candidate — but not necessarily if Trump jumps in. 

▪ The Hill: Trump, Biden wage a proxy 2024 fight over the midterm elections. 

LEADING THE DAY

➤ POLITICS & TRENDS TO WATCH

The other big question looming over the midterms is when to expect the election results.

Slow vote counting in many states meant that it took until the Saturday after Election Day before Biden was declared president-elect in 2020. And while experts don’t expect delays of that length this year, it’s still possible that the winners won’t be determined Tuesday night. This is especially true in the Senate, where key states like Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania could take multiple days to count ballots.

Want to find out when results will likely be available in your state? FiveThirtyEight has an interactive state-by-state tool.

Politico: A ripple, a wave or a tsunami? Here’s what to watch on election night.

When results do come in, voters’ and politicians’ responses will put American democracy to the test. Local governments have already put in place barriers and police reinforcements at ballot counting centers, while election officials have prepared social media posts in case of false claims of ballot fraud.

Two years after Trump tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election, the midterms are leaving voters uncertain about their trust in the process. Republican election deniers are running for statewide and local office across the country, and a majority of Trump supporters still believe his false claims of a rigged election.

Their calls for time-intensive hand counts of ballots, scrutiny of balloting and stakeouts of drop boxes, sometimes with firearms in hand, will put a strain on the country’s electoral system on Tuesday and beyond (The Washington Post).

Across the country, experts are seeing a surge of harassment, attacks and violent threats targeting civic and public officials and their families, Time reports. According to analysts and public officials, politically motivated violence today has become alarmingly pervasive, and the fear it causes is upending the political landscape.

“This habit we have of demonizing political opponents, of saying crazy stuff, it creates a dangerous climate,” former President Obama said at a Saturday campaign rally in Pittsburgh. “You’ve got politicians who work not to bring people together but to stir up division and to make us angry and afraid of one another just for their own advantage.”

▪ Politico: Six election security threats to watch for on Election Day.

▪ Reuters: “Kill them”: Arizona election workers face midterm threats.

▪ The Washington Post: This year, GOP election deniers got a free pass from Twitter and Facebook.

▪ The New York Times: Troubled loner? Political terrorist? Both? It’s often hard to say.

In Pennsylvania, voting and civil rights groups are suing to force the counting of undated mail ballots. The Friday lawsuit, filed by the Pennsylvania State Conference of the NAACP, the League of Women Voters of Pennsylvania and other groups seeks to overturn a recent state Supreme Court decision barring the counting of undated mail ballots. Republicans had called that decision a victory (The Philadelphia Inquirer).

Russian trolls and bots are back on social media, just in time for the midterms. The effort to spread disinformation and stoke anger among conservative voters, as well as undermine trust in the electoral system is not new, researchers report, but this year, the effort is more targeted.

Additionally, recent posts also appear intended to undermine the Biden administration’s extensive military assistance to Ukraine (The New York Times).

After 20 years as the No. 2 House Democrat, Rep. Steny Hoyer (Md.) is facing an uncertain future, The Hill’s Mike Lillis reports. The House majority leader has given no sign that he will bow out of party leadership next year, a marked contrast to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who has pledged to do just that.

But with Republicans widely predicted to win control of the House on Tuesday, a younger crop of Democrats is expected to come gunning for new spots in the leadership ranks.

▪ The Hill: Four ways a GOP-led Congress will take on energy, environment.

▪ Politico: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) passes on 2024 presidential run after considering campaign.

➤ ADMINISTRATION

Millions of student loan borrowers find themselves in limbo as challenges to the government’s student loan debt forgiveness plan move through the courts. When will higher education borrowers learn if they’re actually going to receive federal debt forgiveness? The best available answer The Hill gathered from experts is “soon.” The Education Department began taking applications last month for student loan forgiveness and had planned to issue approvals this month. But those actions came to a halt after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit temporarily blocked the measure. Of the multiple court cases across the country, a challenge from six GOP-led states is the only one that has been successful so far in stopping the program, at least for now.

IRS tax breaks are changing for 2022 filings, so read on: There are changes in the child tax credit and Earned Income Tax Credit (Nexstar). There’s also a new 2023 tax reporting mechanism to capture income of at least $600 per year, down from $20,000 per year, for online sales of secondhand and other goods. Such sellers on Etsy, eBay and elsewhere are unhappy (The Hill and CNBC).

Under current rules, individuals who sell goods or services via platforms that use third-party transaction networks such as PayPal generally only receive a tax form if they engage in at least 200 transactions worth an aggregate $20,000 or more. That form, called a 1099-K, also goes to the IRS. Starting in 2023, the federal threshold for issuing the 1099-K will drop to $600 with no minimum transaction level, due to a provision in the recently enacted American Rescue Plan Act. Some states already have lower minimums.

Vox analysis: Republican extremism is endangering the very idea of the professional, disinterested public servant.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤  INTERNATIONAL

The U.S. has privately asked Ukraine to show it is open to negotiations with Russia, The Washington Post reports. Kyiv has publicly refused to engage in peace talks unless Russian President Vladimir Putin is removed from power.

The request by American officials is not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, the sources told the Post, framing the ask instead as “a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.”

The discussions underscore the complexity of the Biden administration’s position on Ukraine. U.S. officials continue to publicly vow to support Kyiv with aid “for as long as it takes” while also hoping for a resolution to the war that has taken a toll on the world economy and triggered fears of nuclear war over the past eight months.

▪ Yahoo News: Ukrainian troops fire on Russians with captured weapons near key city.

▪ ABC News: Power blackouts across Ukraine amid Russian shelling.

▪ The Hill: Kyiv preparing for total electricity blackout, possible evacuation.

The United Nations climate change conference COP27 is underway in Egypt, bringing together world leaders to once again discuss commitments to mitigate the global climate crisis. The conference, held this year in Sharm el-Sheik through Nov. 18, takes place amid heightened energy production and pricing strains, especially in Europe amid Russia’s war with Ukraine (The Wall Street Journal).

The Hill’s Rachel Frazin reports on four issues to watch during the gathering, which Biden plans to attend on Friday during participation in major international gatherings, including the Group of 20.

At COP27, developing nations have a message for polluters: “pay up” (The New York Times). China and France are among nations issuing that message (Bloomberg News).

North Korea said on Monday that its recent missile launches were simulated strikes on South Korea and the U.S. as the two countries carried out six-day air drills, while Seoul said it had recovered parts of a North Korean missile near its coast (Reuters).

Hardline lawmakers in Iran on Sunday urged the judiciary to “deal decisively” with perpetrators of unrest as the country struggles to suppress the biggest anti-government demonstrations in years. The widespread protests erupted in September after the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish Iranian woman who was detained by morality police for alleged improper dress (Reuters).

➤ COURTS

The Supreme Court on Wednesday will hear a dispute over a longstanding federal law that gives preference to Native American families and tribes over non-Native couples when deciding where to place Native children in custody proceedings. Although overshadowed by the court’s more politically charged cases, legal experts say the dispute could prove hugely consequential for Native American rights and tribal sovereignty (The Hill).

The Supreme Court has openings today to weigh whether to restrain the power of federal agencies. Justices will hear oral arguments this morning in Securities and Exchange Commission v. Cochran, which involves the question of whether district courts can hear constitutional challenges to SEC administrative proceedings. Another case to be argued today involves the Federal Trade Commission (Reuters).

▪ NPR: A Supreme Court nursing home case could limit the rights of millions of patients.

▪ The Hill: Obama says “we’d have a very different Supreme Court” if Democrats had kept the Senate in 2014.

OPINION

■ Donald Trump rallies for … Donald Trump, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board. https://on.wsj.com/3t70w3j

■ Democrats’ long goodbye to the working class, by Ruy Teixeira, contributor, The Atlantic. https://bit.ly/3FPEIRp

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 YOU’RE INVITED: Have a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights? The Hill has launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE. 

The House meets at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14. ​​

The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14. 

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9:30 a.m. He will participate in virtual receptions for the Democratic National Committee at 4 p.m. Biden and first lady Jill Biden will campaign at 7 p.m. for Wes Moore, Democratic candidate for governor in Maryland, during an event at Bowie State University near Columbia, Md. (The Baltimore Sun). The Bidens will return to the White House tonight.

The first lady also headlines a political event at 11:45 a.m. for Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) in Ashburn, Va. 

Vice President Harris, who is in California, will deliver remarks at a political event at the University of California, Los Angeles 1:10 p.m. PT. Second gentleman Doug Emhoff also will speak. Harris at 2 p.m. PT will be part of a virtual political event for Democrats.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan will speak to the Council on Foreign Relations at 6 p.m. during a virtual newsmaker event. Audio and video of the moderated discussion will be posted on the CFR website. According to The Wall Street Journal, Sullivan has held confidential talks with top Putin aides about the war with Ukraine and Russia’s nuclear threats.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1:45 p.m.

⚾ Houston today holds a ticker tape parade at noon for the Houston Astros World Series champions, who beat the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday. Some school students will get the day off (The Houston Chronicle).

ELSEWHERE

➤  TECH AND EMPLOYERS

Tech billionaire Elon Musk and his Twitter management team,who last week announced layoffs of roughly half the company’s workforce, are now reaching out to dozens of the estimated 3,700 purged employees to ask them to return. Some were laid off by mistake, while others were let go before management realized their work and experience may be necessary to build the new features Musk is planning at the social media platform he leveraged with debt to come up with the $44 billion price tag. Some employees have sued Twitter for failing to give workers 60 days notice of layoffs (Bloomberg News).

Ahead of Election Day, a Twitter manager on Sunday told employees who asked about the new $7.99 per month subscription model for Twitter users who want the status symbol of a verification check mark that “we’ve made the decision to move the launch of this release to Nov. 9, after the election” (The New York Times).

▪ The Hill: Global Twitter verification check marks that platform users pay to obtain will “create a very chaotic environment,” predicted Chris Krebs, former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

▪ Axios: Biden on Friday said Twitter “spews lies.” 

▪ NBC News: Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, who left the company’s board in May, apologized last week after Musk’s team began shrinking Twitter’s workforce.

▪ France 24: The U.N. urges Musk to ensure Twitter respects human rights amid massive layoffs.

▪ Protocol: Musk has offered no remorse about his decision to cut workers but tweeted about the company’s estimated daily revenue losses.

Twitter is not the only tech company cutting staff. According to Crunchbase News, as of late October, more than 52,000 workers in the U.S. tech sector have been laid off in mass job cuts. Big tech companies such as Netflix have slashed jobs this year, with some citing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and others pointing to overhiring during periods of rapid growth. 

Layoffs involve the news media, where companies have shed more than 1,100 jobs in 2022 (Axios). At CNN, employees are bracing for more layoffs under CEO Chris Licht, who this spring discontinued CNN+, the company’s fledgling subscription service (Business Insider).

▪ TechCrunch: The fintech layoffs just keep coming.

▪ The Wall Street Journal and The Hill: Facebook parent Meta is preparing to notify employees of large-scale layoffs this week.

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

Deaths caused by alcohol use in the United States spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data published Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), killing more than 49,000 people in 2020 (CNN).

This marks a 26 percent jump in the death rate between 2019 and 2020, equivalent to roughly how much the mortality rate typically increases in a decade. In 2020, alcohol caused 13 deaths for every 100,000 people, compared to 10.4 deaths per 100,000 people in 2019.

“What’s a word bigger than crisis?” National Association of Addiction Treatment Providers CEO Marvin Ventrell told CNN. “What was already a crisis, has exploded.”

The New York Times: Big Tobacco heralds a healthier world while fighting its arrival.

Pfizer and BioNTech announced Friday that their updated omicron COVID-19 booster shot succeeded in strengthening disease-fighting antibodies, even as questions persist about the vaccine’s continued effectiveness against emerging subvariants of omicron.

“Based on all the data we now have in hand, we have confidence in the bivalent COVID-19 vaccines and their ability to create better protection against COVID-19, including these currently circulating variants, than the original vaccine would have,” Peter Marks, director of the Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, told the Post.

Marks encouraged the public to get booster shots ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

China recorded its six-month high of COVID-19 cases even as it continues to implement a zero-COVID strategy involving lockdowns, quarantines, frequent testing and a drastic decrease in inbound travel (Reuters).

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,072,594. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,504 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

THE CLOSER

And finally … 💸 Feeling lucky? This morning brings another drawing for the Powerball jackpot, which climbed over the weekend to $1.9 billion ($929.1 million in cash value) in the absence of a winner since August. How remote are the odds of winning? Just 1 in 292.2 million. The average player will have a better chance of being elected president than winning that prize. 

Powerball in January 2016 made the Guinness World Records’ “greatest jackpot in a national lottery” when three tickets won a $1.586 billion jackpot.

Powerball tickets are $2 per play and are sold in 45 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands (CNN and The Hill).

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

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Trump, Biden wage proxy 2024 fight over midterm elections

It’s a Biden vs. Trump rematch, two years early.

The final days of the 2022 midterm campaign are offering a foretaste of a likely 2024 White House campaign, with President Biden and former President Trump squaring off in a proxy battle.

Biden has increasingly mentioned Trump in his stump speeches as he urges Americans to back Democrats and consider the consequences of voting for Republicans who deny election results. Since leaving office, Trump has rarely passed up an opportunity to bash his successor, including this year in campaign rallies in battleground states. His super PAC has funded ads that attack the president.

The tit-for-tat comes as both men have signaled they intend to run for the White House in 2024.

“I can’t recall a time when it seemed as obvious who the two candidates are going to be [two years from now] as it is with what we’re looking at for 2024,” said Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at the centrist think tank Third Way. 

Both men have much at stake on Tuesday.

For Biden, sweeping Republican victories would be a rebuke of his repeated warnings that democracy is on the ballot from voters who are concerned about rising prices. And a Republican majority would pose a major obstacle to Biden pushing through additional parts of his agenda before the 2024 campaign begins in earnest.

Trump, meanwhile, is expected to try to seize credit for big GOP wins and parlay that into his own 2024 announcement as early as mid-November. 

The former president’s endorsement of Senate candidates in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia put those individuals over the top in primaries, and their results on Tuesday would either bolster Trump’s grip on the GOP or potentially offer a counterargument for a would-be 2024 challenger.

Though Biden has largely kept his schedule to appearing in bluer states where his middling approval rating won’t hurt Democratic candidates, he has more frequently talked about his predecessor, attacks many Democrats see as catnip for their base.

The president on Wednesday delivered a speech on the stakes in next week’s elections, warning that Trump has corroded faith in democratic institutions.

“American democracy is under attack because the defeated former president of the United States refuses to accept the results of the 2020 election. He refuses to accept the will of the people. He refuses to accept the fact that he lost. … And he’s made a Big Lie an article of faith in the MAGA Republican Party — the minority of that party,” Biden said.

At a Thursday fundraiser in California, Biden criticized how “Trump and all his Trumpies” have defended the rioters from Jan. 6, 2021, and connected that attack directly to the recent assault on Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) husband in their home.

“I think part of this is Biden is starting to set up the 2024 race. In some ways I see this a little bit less as a big influence on 2022,” Kessler said, acknowledging that Biden’s focus on election deniers and Trump may resonate with some undecided voters in the midterms.

Biden has repeatedly said he intends to run for reelection without ever outright declaring it. When asked if the prospect of Trump running again factors into his decision, Biden said in an October CNN interview he believes he can defeat him again.

Trump, meanwhile, has been hinting at a 2024 White house bid for some time, using rallies and events for midterm candidates to remain in the spotlight and attack Biden.

At a rally on Thursday in Iowa — the first caucus state for the 2024 primary — Trump mentioned Biden numerous times, including criticizing the president over the withdrawal from Afghanistan, his energy policies and his approach to the southern border. 

“Under Joe Biden, America is no longer respected,” Trump said.

Trump will hold rallies in the days leading up to the midterms in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, all states that are traditionally battlegrounds. The former president’s super PAC has also gotten involved in recent weeks, airing ads in states including Nevada and Pennsylvania that tie Democratic candidates to Biden.

Multiple reports indicated Trump could announce his own plans for 2024 as soon as Nov. 14, less than a week after Election Day.

Kellyanne Conway, a former Trump campaign manager and White House adviser, told a roundtable of reporters on Thursday that Trump has been a constant presence in GOP politics, “including into his post-presidency years.”

“In many ways, don’t miss why and how Trump is running for president again if he would like, because he actually never stopped being part of it,” Conway said.

But the seemingly constant campaign has worn on many voters who have signaled they are eager for both parties to turn the page in 2024.

A USA Today-Suffolk University poll taken from Oct. 19-24 found Biden leading Trump in a prospective rematch, 46 percent to 42 percent.

But 64 percent of respondents said they don’t want Biden to run for a second term, compared to 26 percent who said they do. And the poll found 68 percent of respondents don’t want Trump to run for a second term, compared to 27 percent who said they do.

“I think there’s fatigue in general about politics,” Kessler, the Third Way co-founder, said. “And the country is in a sour mood, and it feels like a nonstop campaign for Americans.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Ten Republicans most likely to be their party’s next presidential candidate

The moment Tuesday’s midterm elections conclude, attention will shift to the 2024 presidential race. 

On the Democratic side, President Biden has said he intends to run for reelection — though a very bad night for Democrats on Tuesday would put that in serious doubt. 

The greater intrigue will be on the Republican side.  

Axios reported on Friday that former President Trump is considering launching a 2024 bid on Nov. 14. Regardless of whether Trump runs, there are plenty of others in the GOP with White House dreams. 

Here are the current top ten contenders — a list that could easily be shaken up by unexpected results on Tuesday. 

Former President Trump 

Trump is the front-runner the moment he enters the race. Virtually every national poll shows him with a healthy lead over any other contender and, for all the controversy he brings in his wake, he remains popular with Republican voters. 

An Economist-YouGov poll released last week, which showed him being viewed favorably by 70 percent of Republican voters, also showed the downside. 

His favorability among the public at large is grim. Fifty-five percent of adults view him unfavorably, according to the poll, while just 38 percent view him favorably. 

In the immediate future, there is a very real possibility that Trump will get indicted over the sensitive documents seized from his Mar-a-Lago estate by the FBI. Other probes about the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection and attempts to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia are also continuing. 

On Tuesday, many eyes will be on controversial Trump-backed Senate candidates like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia, as well as Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. Their fates will be seen as judgements by proxy on Trump himself. 

It’s tough to see anyone defeating Trump for the GOP nomination if he wants it.  

But there are also very big questions that aren’t going away. 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 

DeSantis should cruise to reelection on Tuesday over his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Charlie Crist. 

The margin of his victory will be important, however.  

A resounding win in a national battleground would be powerful evidence of DeSantis’s electability — even though he draws the fury of Democrats and liberals for his policies on immigration, voting rights and education, among other topics. 

As of Sunday evening, DeSantis led Crist, himself a former governor, by 11.5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average. 

If Trump were to unexpectedly decline to enter the race, DeSantis would immediately become the favorite.  

If Trump launches a campaign, as expected, DeSantis is almost certainly the only person in the GOP with any realistic chance of defeating him. 

Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) 

Polling indicates that Trump and DeSantis are well clear of others in the potential field for the 2024 GOP nomination. 

Cruz, who was Trump’s most serious rival back in 2016, is probably the best of the rest. 

He is staunchly conservative, a potent fundraiser and has a high national profile. 

The 2016 primary campaign was a bitter one, culminating in Cruz notably declining to endorse Trump at that year’s Republican National Convention.  

Cruz has, for the most part, made nice with Trump since then. But recently he has deviated from that path on occasion. 

Just last week, he complained about the former president not spending enough money to support GOP candidates in the midterms.  

“I wish Trump was spending some of his money,” Cruz said on his podcast. “Trump’s got $100 million and he’s spending almost none of it to support these candidates.”  

Cruz has been overtaken by DeSantis as the main alternative to Trump but he could yet make some headway. 

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin  

Youngkin thrilled party insiders with his victory over Democrat Terry McAuliffe last year, becoming governor of a state Biden had carried by 10 points in 2020.  

Youngkin’s fans were enthused not only by the fact that he won but the way in which he did so — with a campaign that neither fully embraced nor rejected Trump, and with a strong emphasis on parents’ rights in education. 

Some saw in the Youngkin campaign a template for a winning Republican campaign in a post-Trump era. 

But if Youngkin has higher ambitions, he has to contend with questions about his relative lack of political experience — and the fact that it’s not at all clear the post-Trump era has yet begun. 

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo 

Pompeo has been more open than most about his presidential ambitions. 

“We’ve got a team in Iowa, a team in New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And that’s not random. We are doing the things one would do to get ready,” he said at a September event in Chicago.  

“We are trying to figure out if that is the next place for us to serve,” he added, referring to the White House. 

Pompeo’s tenure as secretary of State gives him some gravitas and authority. 

But it’s a lot more doubtful whether he has the charisma to go all the way — or whether there is a significant pro-Pompeo camp anywhere in the GOP. 

Former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley 

Haley was widely seen as a gifted politician during her time as governor of South Carolina. As the daughter of Indian immigrants, she was also viewed as an emblem of a new, more inclusive GOP. 

Haley is a compelling figure, but her political positioning in relation to Trump has caused her problems. 

Though she served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations during his tenure, she also left abruptly and is viewed with suspicion by some in the former president’s inner circle. 

Haley caused a stir in the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6 insurrection when she was critical of Trump in a closed-door meeting with Republican National Committee members, saying his conduct between the election and the riot would be “harshly judged by history.” 

Later, she again became far more supportive. She has indicated she will not be a candidate in 2024 if Trump enters the race. 

“Every time she criticizes me, she uncriticizes me about 15 minutes later,” Trump mused to Vanity Fair in September 2021. 

Former Vice President Mike Pence 

Trump’s former deputy has been doing much of the work that traditionally presages a presidential campaign — giving big speeches, endorsing candidates and generally seeking to position himself as a major figure within the GOP. 

The problem for Pence is pretty simple — and hard to overcome.  

Pro-Trump hard-liners don’t like him because he — rightly — upheld the 2020 election results. And people who admire him for his conduct in that regard don’t amount to a sizable constituency in today’s GOP. 

In a YouGov-University of Massachusetts poll in October, Trump secured 53 percent support and DeSantis 29 percent.  

Pence was way behind, with 6 percent. 

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott 

Abbott isn’t generally seen as in the top tier of presidential contenders, though some insiders in Texas believe he has a more bullish view of his chances. 

Abbott will probably strengthen his case on Tuesday. He is expected to comfortably defeat former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D). Abbott is about nine points ahead in the RCP average. Assuming he vanquishes O’Rourke, it will likely end the Democrat’s once-bright hopes of higher office. 

Still, Abbott’s presumed victory will come in a much more safely Republican state than DeSantis’s Florida.  

While the Texas governor is an able politician, it’s hard to see how he gets past some of the figures higher on this list. 

Tucker Carlson 

There has been gossip for a while in media and political circles about whether Carlson might harbor political ambitions. 

On one hand, a presidential campaign seems highly improbable. 

On the other, if Trump did not run, there would arguably be a gap in the market for a TV star with a taste for the provocative and inflammatory. 

Carlson, whose Fox News show regularly draws more than 3 million viewers, has a readymade fanbase. 

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) 

Our tenth Republican is a bit of a cheat for this list, at least in compiling the 10 figures most likely to be the GOP nominee for president in 2024.  

Cheney is not going to be the Republican nominee. 

Trump’s fiercest GOP foe on Capitol Hill lost her August primary to the former president’s pick, Harriet Hageman, in a landslide. 

But Cheney has been plain about her mission to stop Trump ever holding high office again. 

She will be leaving Congress in January but a “spoiler” run for the GOP nomination — or an independent bid — can’t be ruled out.  

Source: TEST FEED1

Hoyer's future hangs in limbo as likely shake-up looms in the House

After 20 years as the No. 2 House Democrat, Rep. Steny Hoyer is facing an uncertain future.

The House majority leader has given no sign he intends to bow out of party leadership next year, marking a contrast with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who has pledged to do just that.

But with Republicans widely predicted to win control of the lower chamber in Tuesday’s elections, a younger crop of Democrats is expected to come gunning for new spots in the leadership ranks, threatening any and all of the party’s long-standing triumvirate — Pelosi, Hoyer (Md.) and Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) — if they do seek to remain in power.

Like Pelosi and Clyburn, Hoyer has been reticent about his role in the next Congress, saying only that he’ll make his plans clear when the midterm dust settles. But lawmakers, aides and outside observers who have followed the career of the 21-term Maryland institution say they fully expect Hoyer to launch another bid to remain in the top levels of leadership, regardless of the election results.

“That’s everyone’s understanding,” said one lawmaker, who spoke anonymously to discuss a sensitive topic.

A former Democratic leadership aide was even more blunt, saying Hoyer thrives on the role he’s carved out as both a moderate dealmaker in Congress and a political “kingmaker” in Maryland — all reasons he will likely vie to stay in leadership.  

“Hoyer is a guy that they’re going to have to take out on a stretcher. He is not leaving,” said the former aide. 

“The younger group is like, ‘Oh yeah, when Pelosi leaves, everybody leaves.’ But I don’t think that’s true,” the source continued. “Now, I’m not saying that Hoyer will win if they take him on. But they’re going to have to take him on.”

How Democrats perform in the midterms could prove to be the factor that ultimately determines their leadership roster next year. 

Pelosi had vowed four years ago that 2022 would be her last year in a leadership role — a stipulation that helped her win the Speaker’s gavel in 2019. But if Democrats defy the odds and keep control of the lower chamber next week, some think she could remain in charge — if she chooses. That could insulate Hoyer and Clyburn, who have served together with Pelosi at the top of the party since 2006.

A red wave, by contrast, would likely spark a shake-up across the party, whetting the Democrats’ appetite for new leadership and complicating any effort by the Big Three to stay in power.

“There was some speculation that Nancy might leave early. And if that had been the case it would seem the fair thing to do to pass it to Steny for the duration of the term,” said a moderate lawmaker who has been critical of the longevity of party leaders. “But that’s a different dynamic than if we go through a bloodbath [on Tuesday]. I think people are going to be prepared for new leadership.”

Hoyer has emphasized that he was never a part of Pelosi’s 2018 pledge to adopt leadership term limits — a message he amplified in September, just before the House left Washington for the long midterm recess. 

“She speaks for herself on that issue,” Hoyer told reporters in his Capitol office. “We’ll all make that decision, but we’re not going to make it until after Nov. 9.”

Stumping for North Carolina Democrats last month, Clyburn delivered a similar message, saying it would be “foolhardy” to talk about his future role before knowing “what the supporting cast is going to be.” 

“I have no idea until this election is over,” he said. “If you’re in the majority, that’s one thing. If you’re in the minority, that’s another thing.”

Waiting in the wings are three newer members of the leadership team — Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) — who are expected to vie for the top three spots, respectively, whenever the chance arrives. And others, including Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), a prolific fundraiser, are also said to be eyeing leadership runs.

Publicly, those lawmakers are waiting patiently for post-election announcements from Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn — all octogenarians — before declaring their own intentions. But behind the scenes, a number of rank-and-file Democrats increasingly view Jeffries, Clark and Aguilar as the natural trio to lead the party in the next Congress, particularly if the House changes hands in next week’s midterms. 

“I’m not sure if it’ll matter if [Hoyer and Clyburn] see it as a package deal or not. I think it might very well be,” said a second Democratic lawmaker. “Because of the way the next generation of leaders are organizing themselves, that feels more like a unified effort.”

First elected in 1981, Hoyer quickly rose into the Democrats’ leadership ranks, leading the Democratic Caucus for three terms beginning in 1989 before taking on Pelosi for a vacated minority whip spot in early 2002. Pelosi prevailed, then rose the next year to become the top House Democrat, where she’s been ever since. Hoyer has been right behind her for the duration. 

Over that 20-year span, Hoyer built a reputation as a moderate voice among liberal leaders, willing to reach across the aisle in search of bipartisan compromise on thorny issues like curbing deficit spending. 

Those positions sometimes ruffled feathers with liberals in the caucus, particularly his vote to authorize the Iraq War, which Pelosi opposed. But he also proved himself to be an effective coalition builder, energetic campaigner and prolific fundraiser, hauling in millions of dollars each cycle and spreading it across scores of contested races. 

In this cycle alone, Hoyer has visited 66 districts in 27 states, providing more than $14 million to Democratic candidates, according to his campaign office, while championing several huge pieces of legislation — including the revival of earmarks and funding to promote domestic manufacturing — signed into law by President Biden. 

“He will be a contender for leadership if Pelosi doesn’t want it, and he has quite a lot of loyalty in the caucus,” said a liberal lawmaker. “He’ll be a strong contender.”

Democratic leaders are well accustomed to some controversy surrounding their long leadership tenure. 

Pelosi, for years, has faced off against disgruntled lawmakers fighting to install fresh faces and ideas at the top of the party. And Hoyer and Clyburn briefly challenged each other for the No. 2 spot after Democrats lost control of the House in 2010 — a tense contest that threatened to tear the caucus along both ideological and racial lines. 

In that case, Pelosi stepped in to defuse the frictions by creating a special leadership position, allowing Clyburn to remain the third-ranking Democrat in the minority. But some in the party are already concerned that this year’s leadership battles might turn similarly ugly, especially if Pelosi lacks the power to devise a resolution. 

“There’s a lot of scenarios, but it’s going to be messy here,” said the former leadership aide. 

Still other Democratic veterans agree that it’s too early to know how the leadership races will filter out. But Hoyer and Clyburn, many emphasize, have both earned the opportunity to make their pitch to remain in power. 

“They seem committed to staying here a while longer, and both of them have been excellent, terrific leaders,” said Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.), a 13-term lawmaker who’s retiring at the end of this term. 

“They certainly deserve a chance to make their case.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Expected Trump indictment looms over midterm election 

The expected indictment of Donald Trump is looming over the midterm elections as both parties are preparing for a major battle after Election Day if Attorney General Merrick Garland moves forward with an unprecedented prosecution of a former president. 

Republican lawmakers in both the Senate and the House are warning they will put up a staunch defense of Trump if the Department of Justice announces an indictment, which some GOP aides and strategists expect to come in the first 60 to 90 days after Election Day.  

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is already warning that GOP lawmakers could use their power of the purse to reign in the Justice Department if prosecutors indict Trump, which he says would be using law enforcement authority as a political weapon. 

“If Biden treats the Department of Justice as partisan stormtroopers, then Congress is justified in using whatever tools Congress has to stop that abuse of power,” Cruz told The Hill in an interview, when asked about the possibility of holding up Justice Department funding.  

If an indictment of Trump does come before mid-December, Justice Department funding likely would become a political football as congressional leaders work to pass legislation to fund the government for the next year.

Cruz, who has a new book out, “Justice Corrupted: How the Left Weaponized the Legal System,” says any indictment of Trump would serve as more evidence that the Justice Department has let partisan politics dictate its decision-making.  

He believes the Justice Department will announce an indictment of Trump at around the same time it announces charges against Hunter Biden, the president’s son, in an effort to show that it is acting in an even-handed way.  

“The Biden White House wants to indict Donald Trump and they want to put whatever fig leaf in front of them they can to make it appear slightly less partisan,” Cruz said, pointing to what he called a series of “coordinated” leaks to lay the groundwork for an indictment.   

Sensitive to Republican accusations that the Justice Department is driven by partisan politics, senior Justice Department officials have discussed the possibility of appointing a special prosecutor to handle the investigations and any possible indictment of the former president.  

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who would become chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations if he wins reelection and Republicans win control of the Senate, says one of his top priorities will be to investigate what his spokeswoman called the “corruption and politicization of federal law enforcement and our intelligence agencies.” 

Johnson last month proposed setting up a select congressional committee similar to the Senate’s Church Committee established in 1975 to investigate whether the CIA spied on anti-war protesters.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who is expected to take over as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee if Republicans capture the House, plans to investigate the Justice Department’s search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home for classified documents.

House Judiciary Committee Republicans on Friday released a 1,000-page report detailing what they called “a rampant culture of unaccountability, manipulation and abuse at the highest level” at the Department of Justice and FBI.  

Reports circulated on Friday that Trump could announce a reelection bid as soon as Nov. 14.

He’d be the instant front-runner in the Republican presidential primary field and Senate GOP aides predict the party’s conservative base would quickly rally to his defense against any criminal charges brought by the Justice Department.  

An early Trump bid could also be interpreted as a warning shot at Justice that any indictment of him as he runs for the White House would be political.

Some think their party has a better chance of retaking the White House with a different standard-bearer. But few of these Republicans are likely to back an indictment.

Former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), who served as a counselor to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) leadership team during his time in the Senate, said the Republican backlash to an indictment against Trump will be “massive” and “overwhelming.”  

“Even people like myself who have no use for Donald Trump and think he’s been very unfortunate for our party and that his treatment of our electoral process has undermined our democratic process would find it extremely difficult to tolerate an indictment of a former president,” he said. “There would have to be just incredible grounds of knowing violations that created serious national security problems. I just don’t suspect that’s the case.”

Gregg conceded that “no one knows” outside Trump’s inner orbit, the Justice Department and intelligence agencies just what kind of damage Trump may have caused to national security by keeping classified documents at his estate but warned “indicting a former president is a complete breakdown, in my opinion, of the structure of our government which is built on some level of tolerance of political activity.”  

Gregg said Garland should expect a fight over funding for his department if he indicts Trump and Republicans win control of one or both chambers of Congress.  

“You would have a constitutional issue of immense proportions because the Congress would, I assume, assert its right to discipline the administration or the attorney general through the purse and maybe in other ways,” he said. “We don’t need that as a country.”  

A Senate Republican aide said GOP lawmakers are closely following the moves of the Justice Department, and that an indictment could strengthen Trump politically. “Everyone rallied around him again” after the Mar-a-Lago raid, the aide noted.  

Democrats say Garland will face calls for his resignation if federal prosecutors decide to not prosecute Trump for holding sensitive classified documents at his estate at Mar-a-Lago, which they view as a clear violation of the law and a straightforward case to argue in court.  

“If he ultimately determines to not bring charges against Trump, somebody will call for him to step down,” said Ray Zaccaro, a Democratic strategist and former Senate aide.  

Zaccaro argued that Trump’s possession of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago broke the law and that the crime happened after he left office. He also noted that while no former U.S. president has been indicted on criminal charges, it has happened in other countries.  

Democratic members of the House Select Jan. 6 committee vented frustration earlier this year over the Department of Justice being slow to pursue contempt charges with members of Trump’s inner circle who refused to cooperate with the panel.  

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) bluntly called on Garland in March to “Do Your Job” after the Justice Department was slow in supporting the subpoenas of the Jan. 6 Committee.  

The backlash will be more intense after Election Day if Garland doesn’t act to enforce the law prohibiting the private possession of highly classified documents, such as a document describing Iran’s missile program, which the FBI seized at Mar-a-Lago.  

Republicans and Democrats who expect the Justice Department to indict Trump believe it will bring charges against the former president for holding classified national security-related documents at Mar-a-Lago, instead of trying to prosecute him for inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

Any prosecution of Trump related to Jan. 6 would be complicated by the fact that the Senate already tried and acquitted Trump on similar charges during his impeachment trial last year.  

Republican and Democratic aides acknowledge that any prosecution of Trump will plunge the Department of Justice into a political firestorm and make it more difficult for the Biden administration to work with Republicans, who are likely to control the House if not both chambers of Congress next year.  

“If the Department of Justice does it, it will be a maelstrom. They’re obviously well aware of that but have to balance it with their duty to uphold and administer the law. It’s pretty clear that Merrick Garland is not relishing this,” said a Senate Democratic aide who requested anonymity to discuss Trump’s possible indictment, a sensitive topic on Capitol Hill.  

The aide said it’s clear that Trump violated the law but cautioned that doesn’t necessarily mean Garland will bring an indictment.  

If the attorney general fails to act, “there are going to be some Democrats who are going to complain vociferously,” the source said, but acknowledged “there are a lot of Democrats who recognize that Garland’s got no good options here” because he will come under strong criticism no matter what he decides to do.  

“Whatever happens on Tuesday will inform his decision but not make it easier,” the aide said, making reference to Election Day, which will be a referendum on Biden but also Trump, whom Democrats have tried to tie to Senate and House GOP candidates.   

Emily Brooks contributed to this report. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Juan Williams: Hatred and lies are winning in a landslide

Don’t wait for Tuesday’s votes. The results are already in.

Hateful lies and violence are winning. 

Trumpian politicians pushing the fear button on race, crime and immigration feel good about the polls. The money is piling up. They will continue trashing our government and our elections long after midterm votes are counted.

A GOP-controlled House is widely predicted by polls. Already, news reports point to election-deniers in a GOP majority engaging in a feeding frenzy of lies and conspiracies, beginning with endless, Benghazi-like investigations into President Biden’s son, Hunter. 

Forget doing hard work on policies to help the economy.

A Republican majority will be busy demeaning the president and circulating conspiracy theories favored by violent right-wing groups.

The dots are there for everyone to connect.

Threats of violence against members of the House and Senate have jumped from less than a thousand in 2016 — the year of Trump’s election — to nearly 10,000 in 2021, according to Capitol police. 

There have also been deadly attacks at the far-right gathering in Charlottesville, Va., in 2017, and at a Pittsburgh synagogue in 2018.

Then came the January 6 violent attack on the Capitol by Trump supporters. 

And threats to election workers continue. Now add in the violent attack on Paul Pelosi, the husband of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). 

Speaker Pelosi is constantly demonized by Republicans and Trump extremists. Trump has publicly defamed her as a “disgrace,” and “crazy Nancy.”

The man who attacked Pelosi’s husband drove home that point by allegedly asking “Where’s Nancy?” He later reportedly told police he wanted to kidnap her and use a hammer to break her kneecaps.

Trump has a long record of toying with personal attacks that invite violence.

Trump has told his followers that Biden is the “enemy of the state,” and that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has a political “death wish.”

That kind of language led Hillary Clinton to rightly ask during an MSNBC interview last week why Americans would vote for candidates linked to a man who is “stirring up these violent feelings…making a joke about a violent attack on Paul Pelosi? Why would you trust that person to have power over you, your family, your business, your community?”

Clinton answered her own question by saying there are politicians who don’t care about violence if “they think it will somehow get them votes that will get them elected. This is a real threat to the heart of our democracy.” 

Former President Obama is making the same point. 

If politicians continue with “over-the-top rhetoric… if they encourage their supporters to stand outside voting places armed with guns and dressed in tactical gear, if that’s the environment that we create, more people are going to get hurt,” Obama said at a campaign rally last week. 

But the vitriol continues to flow from Trump’s loyalists.

According to Politico, a political advertisement from a group created by former Trump officials asked Georgia voters in threatening tones: “When did racism against white people become OK?” 

It then claimed Biden “put white people last in line for Covid relief funds” — apparently a reference to innocuous comments made in 2021 about making minority-owned and female-owned businesses a “priority.”

Meanwhile, the New York Times reported on the various “voting-related falsehoods and rumors” flourishing on social media before the election.

The Times said false social media posts about “rigged” voting machines, ballot fraud, and unauthorized immigrants voting are plainly intended to “undermine confidence in voting.”

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) wrote last week that not all Republicans are like Trump. But he warned that “MAGA Republicans, and their leader, are drowning out the voices of reason within their party while they erode American democracy.”

“In fact, many on the right are all too willing to exploit this extremism – and resulting division – for political gain,” Thompson wrote on CNN’s website. 

Thompson noted that since Trump became a candidate in 2015, the number of “domestic terrorism plots or attacks,” have reached “an all-time high,” and 80 percent of the attacks have been the work of “right-wing extremists.”

The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security recently warned in an internal memo that there is an elevated risk of even more violence around Tuesday’s election. One major rationale for that violence, according to the government memo, would be “perceptions of election-related fraud.”

As voters prepare to cast their ballot tomorrow, they would do well to remember the words of a conservative retired federal judge, J. Michael Luttig.

The lifelong conservative, in testimony before the House Select Committee on January 6, warned that Trump and his supporters are preparing in open sight an “attempt to overturn that 2024 election in the same way that they attempted to overturn the 2020 election.”

“A stake was driven through the heart of American democracy on January 6, 2021, and our democracy today is on a knife’s edge,” Luttig warned.

“Almost two years after that fateful day … Donald Trump and his allies and supporters are a clear and present danger to American democracy,” Luttig said. 

Luttig was right. The potential for outbreaks of violence by Trump’s supporters remains a clear and present danger. 

Juan Williams is an author, and a political analyst for Fox News Channel.

Source: TEST FEED1

Biden says Zeldin 'all talk' on crime while stumping for Hochul in New York

President Biden on Sunday sought to give a last minute boost to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in her re-election bid, hitting Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) for opposing funding for more police officers as crime has become a central issue in the campaign.

“Folks, Gov. Hochul’s opponent talks a good game on crime. But it’s all talk,” Biden said at a campaign event in Yonkers, N.Y.

Biden hit Zeldin, who served in Congress since 2015, for opposing the American Rescue Plan, legislation passed by Democrats in 2021 that included billions of dollars in funding for state and local governments to hire more police officers and invest in community programs intended to reduce violence.

“Gov. Hochul’s opponent had a choice: He could keep cops on the job or he could cave to Republican leaders,” Biden said. “I’ll give you one guess what he did. He caved. He voted against keeping cops on the beat, decided to play politics instead.”

Biden contrasted Zeldin’s vote on that legislation with his own record since taking office, noting that he has rejected calls from some progressives to defund the police. The president also signed a bipartisan bill earlier this year that sought to strengthen gun laws in response to multiple mass shootings, including one in Buffalo, N.Y.

Biden visited the site of the Buffalo shooting in May alongside Hochul to pay respects to the families of the 10 victims.

The president also criticized Zeldin for opposing a ban on assault weapons, something Biden himself has pledged to do in the new Congress despite likely not having the votes.

“If a politician won’t stand up to his party’s leaders to keep cops on the beat and won’t stand up to the [National Rifle Association] and get assault weapons off the street, do you really think he’s going to take and help your families keep safe?,” Biden said.

Crime has taken an outsize role in the New York gubernatorial race, with Zeldin capitalizing on citizens’ concerns about high-profile murders that have taken place in New York City in particular, even as statistics have indicated major crimes are not significantly higher than recent years.

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted in mid-October found Hochul leading Zeldin by four points. When asked to point to the most pressing issue facing voters in New York, 28 percent said it was crime, the most of any issue. Inflation came in second at 20 percent.

Source: TEST FEED1