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Online secondhand sellers balk at new tax reporting threshold

Melissa Williams has been buying and reselling her children’s clothing on a variety of online platforms for more than a decade.

But a new tax barrier may force her to pause her accounts and abandon what she calls a sustainable economic solution for her family. 

“If I couldn’t do what I do and buy hand-me-downs from other sellers, then we’re headed to big box department stores, especially where I live,” said Williams, a stay-at-home mom from Walla Walla, Wash.

The obstacle comes from a revised portion of the tax code included in President Biden’s American Rescue Plan of 2021, which requires sellers to report transactions over third-party networks that exceed $600 — a considerable shift from the previous $20,000 threshold. 

Sellers must fill out a 1099-K form for such transactions, and while the IRS says the change impacts only tax reporting rules — rather than broader taxability of income — for smaller re-sellers like Williams, it’s a big change.

She said she has already exceeded the $600 threshold on children’s fashion marketplace Kidizen and on e-commerce site Mercari, so she’s considering putting holds on both accounts. 

“It really helps us financially, being able to sell my kids’ used clothing and then turn around and buy their next size up,” Williams told The Hill. 

Seeking a return to $20,000

Now, a coalition of online retailers including Kidizen, eBay, Etsy and Poshmark is pushing for a return to the higher threshold.

About 47 percent of American resellers polled in a February 2022 survey said that they weren’t aware of the new reporting requirements, according to the Coalition for 1099-K Fairness, which also includes Airbnb, Goldin, Mercari, OfferUp, PayPal, Reverb and Tradesy.

The survey, which polled 757 people whose 2021 sales were under $20,000, found that 69 percent of respondents now intended to sell less or stop selling. And 54 percent said they would likely dispose of preowned goods instead of selling them, potentially dealing blows to both the online market and reuse-based sustainability efforts.

“If you’re someone like me, you’re finding this stuff in your closet when you clean out for spring, or you’ve got stuff in your garage,” Renée Morin, chief sustainability officer for eBay, told The Hill.

“You want to participate online and put these goods into e-commerce and avoid sending them to a landfill,” Morin said.

At Kidizen — which Williams cites as her favorite platform — sellers across the U.S. ship directly to buyers, said co-founder and CEO Dori Graff. Most resellers, she said, are “getting their inventory from their own kids.”

“We are very community-driven,” Graff said. “With parents going through a similar transition at the same time, it kind of bonds them in a way that goes way beyond commerce.”

The downgrade from a $20,000 to $600 reporting threshold “is affecting millions of online sellers,” added Mary Fallon, Kidizen co-founder and chief creative officer, who said that more than 75 percent of the site’s sales this year were from sellers whose transactions exceeded the $600 threshold.

Congress takes notice

Several introduced bills from both sides of the aisle propose either returning to the $20,000 limit or settling on a compromise number.

The Cut Red Tape for Online Sales Act, sponsored by Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) as HR.7079 and by Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) as S.3840, calls for increasing the threshold to $5,000.

Multiple Republican-sponsored bills, meanwhile, call for a return to the $20,000 threshold: Rep. Carol Miller’s (W.Va.) Saving Gig Economy Taxpayers Act (HR.3425), Sen. Bill Hagerty’s (Tenn.) SNOOP Act of 2022 (S.3546) and a third bill (S.948) proposed by Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.)

A spokeswoman for Miller said that she intends to push her bill’s passage in the post-election season, noting that the congresswoman “supports restoring the threshold to its original levels.”

“However, she is certainly open to negotiating if Democrats have a reasonable proposal to save taxpayers from their own liberal, burdensome taxes and red tape included in the American Rescue Plan,” the spokeswoman said, describing that plan as an “absurd budget gimmick.”

Pappas, who proposed the $5,000 threshold, described the issue as “absolutely important to settle before the end of the year.”

“Selling online has helped my constituents supplement their income and find a second life for used goods,” he said in a statement.

The House Ways and Means Committee — the committee of jurisdiction for this section of the American Rescue Plan — did not respond to The Hill’s request for comment.

A spokesperson for the Coalition for 1099-K Fairness said the group “supports any legislation to raise the threshold.”

“Even a $5K threshold would provide significant relief for families and microbusiness. The hope is that the threshold will be raised as part of a tax extender package in the lame duck session,” the spokesperson added.

A ‘big deterrent’

At Kidizen, if sellers are nearing the current $600 threshold, the company sends them a cautionary notification and requests their W-9 information, Graff said.

“For most of our sellers, that’s their Social Security number,” she said, noting this in and of itself is a “big deterrent.”

“We’ve had a number of shops actually just put their shop on hold for the rest of the year,” Graff said.

Williams, who is debating whether to pause her accounts, described “a scary situation” in which she has no idea how her sales are going to affect her tax filing. 

But backing away from these platforms and returning to big box stores would also mean forgoing her ability to purchase and re-sell quality fashion brands, according to Williams.

“Unfortunately, a lot of these brands that do focus on organic material and sustainability and recycling and all of that — they’re more expensive,” she said.

While the most sustainable fashion practice is to buy fewer, better-quality items, the second most sustainable behavior is participating in online resale, according to Fallon, from Kidizen.

Stressing that Kidizen’s brands retain their value and generally reach “well beyond one child,” Graff added that their company’s “goal is to keep items in circulation as long as possible.”

“If we dissuade consumers from reselling,” Graff continued, “they might revert back to fast fashion.”

Williams said she hopes that Congress will decide to return to the $20,000 threshold.

“I’d know that I would never have to be worried or question that,” she said. “There’s no way I would ever reach that — not even close, doing what I’m doing.”

“We’re not trying to weasel our way out of paying taxes,” Williams added. “We’re trying to dress our kids.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Ticket-splitters could play key role in battleground states

Ticket-splitters are poised to play a pivotal role in a handful of key battleground states, like Pennsylvania and Georgia, where signs are growing that voters may be willing to cross party lines for certain candidates. 

In Georgia, where voters will choose their next governor and U.S. senator next week, polling has routinely shown Gov. Brian Kemp leading his Democratic rival Stacey Abrams by distinct margins, while Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) has maintained a narrow edge over Herschel Walker, the Republican Senate nominee. 

A similar dynamic is playing out in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Josh Shapiro has opened up a sizable advantage over Republican Doug Mastriano in the race for governor. Meanwhile, in the state’s Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman has seen his once-yawning lead over Republican nominee Mehmet Oz evaporate, leaving the two candidates virtually deadlocked.

Taken together, the polls suggest that voters who cast their ballots for candidates of different parties could make the difference in some of the nation’s premier races, despite a decades-long decline in ticket-splitting and heightened political polarization.

“I think that the benefits of being hyperpartisan are starting to fall off,” said Keith Naughton, a veteran Republican strategist. “For both parties, it’s doing as much to drive their opponents’ turnout as it does their own. So it’s going to come down more to a more moderate, middle grouping of the public that’s willing to split their votes.”

Some strategists said that the potential for ticket-splitting this year shouldn’t come as a total surprise. 

Voters tend to be less likely to vote according to party lines in midterm elections compared to presidential election years when partisan sentiments tend to run higher. At the same time, factors like incumbent advantages and concerns about candidate quality may be driving some Americans to split their votes. 

Kemp, for instance, has maintained an above-water approval rating for much of his first term in the governor’s mansion. And despite his pursuit of a hard-line conservative agenda, there are signs that he’s managed to attract the support of some moderates and independents with popular policies like tax cuts and pay raises for teachers and state employees.

Walker, meanwhile, has seen his campaign ravaged by gaffes and controversies, including allegations that he paid for his now-ex-girlfriend to have an abortion in 2009. And while his race against Warnock remains tight, he’s polling several points behind Kemp in most public surveys, suggesting that voters that are committed to backing Kemp may have some reservations about Walker.

“I think at the end of the day, there are a lot of people who see Brian Kemp and Raphael Warnock as relatively stable figures,” one Democratic strategist who has worked on Georgia campaigns said. “Herschel Walker is a mess. Voters see that. And Stacey — she’s a good candidate, but it’s just hard to convince people to throw Kemp out of there.”

“I think voters are being more discerning about all of this than a lot of the political class, the media gives them credit for,” the strategist added.

That dynamic has played out repeatedly in polling. A Marist College survey released on Friday found Warnock and Walker deadlocked at 48 percent support among likely Georgia voters, while Kemp led Abrams by 8 points. 

But when it comes to independents, they appear poised to break for the incumbents. Forty-eight percent said they’re supporting Kemp compared to 42 percent who are backing Abrams. Warnock, meanwhile, has the backing of 49 percent of independents, compared to Walker’s 42 percent.

Naughton also chalked the strength of candidates like Kemp and Shapiro up to the fact that they’re both current state officials seeking state-level offices. Kemp is seeking reelection to the governor’s mansion, while Shapiro is still serving out his second term as Pennsylvania’s attorney general.

Naughton said that unlike Senate races, which tend to be dominated by national — and often polarizing — issues, contests for governor’s mansions often hinge more on state and local issues. 

“There’s a split between state and federal races. You have state-level politicians who are dealing with less ideological, more local concerns,” he said. “These races will turn on what they’ve done, what they’ve delivered.” 

While split-ticket voters could potentially swing the outcomes in Georgia and Pennsylvania, there are similar trends playing out in other states. In Ohio, for instance, Gov. Mike DeWine, who’s seeking reelection this year, is running nearly 10 points ahead of Republican Senate nominee J.D. Vance, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average of the two races.

Likewise, in New Hampshire, Gov. Chris Sununu, a popular Republican incumbent, is widely favored to win his reelection bid, while Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) appears to have a slight edge over Republican Don Bolduc in the Granite State’s closely watched Senate race.

With Election Day just a few days out, candidates in tough races are acutely aware that they’ll need to rally the support of ticket-splitters if they want to make it across the finish line next week. Facing the potential for defeat, Fetterman’s campaign aired an ad recently tying Oz to Mastriano, saying that he would allow politicians like the Republican gubernatorial candidate to “ban abortion without exception.”

Abrams employed a similar tactic during a debate with Kemp late last month, saying that the Georgia governor “defended Herschel Walker,” whom she referred to as Kemp’s “running mate.”

Chuck Clay, a former state senator and Georgia GOP chair, said that Kemp and Warnock’s relative strengths in their races are simply evidence of Georgia’s growing status as a battleground, where candidates can’t rely solely on a party-line vote to win.

“Georgians are going to vote the way they’re going to vote,” Clay said.

Source: TEST FEED1

Liz Cheney makes waves on her way out of Congress

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is going out with a bang, ramping up her attacks on the pro-Trump forces in her own party with a highly public exit tour designed to prevent the same GOP leaders she once embraced from winning power next year.

The Wyoming conservative was clobbered in her August primary after lambasting former President Trump for his role in last year’s attack on the U.S. Capitol — a single-minded crusade that made her a pariah in the ruby-red Cowboy State, where Trump remains a revered figure.

Now, in the waning weeks of her congressional career, Cheney has launched an extraordinary campaign, stumping for once-rival Democrats in battleground districts and assailing fellow Republicans as an existential threat to America’s most basic democratic foundations — a role reversal unlike anything seen on Capitol Hill in modern memory.

As an opening act, Cheney was in central Michigan on Tuesday to promote one of the most vulnerable Democrats this midterm cycle, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a former Pentagon official whose GOP opponent, state Senator Tom Barrett, has said the legitimacy of the 2020 election remains “an unknowable thing.”

Cheney and Slotkin don’t see eye-to-eye on countless policy positions, but the notion that Congress might soon be controlled by a party unwilling to accept election results has united them in a last-ditch effort to convince voters that preserving democracy should trump everything else — even economic concerns — when they go to the polls on Tuesday. 

“If we want to ensure the survival of the republic, we have to walk away from politics as usual,” Cheney said to a packed gymnasium in East Lansing. “We have to stand up — every one of us — and say we’re going to do what’s right for this country and we’re going to look beyond partisan politics.”

On the same day, during an event at Cleveland State University, Cheney also endorsed another Democrat, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, who is squaring off against J.D. Vance, a Republican investor, to replace retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman in the Buckeye State. Vance, who rose to fame as the author of the wildly popular “Hillbilly Elegy” memoir, was endorsed by Trump and continues to cast doubt on President Biden’s 2020 victory. 

“We have to have elected officials who are responsible, who are going to do the right thing, with whom you might disagree but whom you know have the best interest of the nation at heart and in mind,” Cheney told PBS’s Judy Woodruff in Cleveland. 

Most recently, Cheney on Saturday endorsed Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), a former CIA official, who is vying for a third term against Republican Yesli Vega, a local county official who has won Trump’s endorsement.

Biden won the district by six points in 2020, but the race has tightened in the final weeks, giving Republicans new hope that they can pick up a seat the sprawling district encompassing parts of both the Richmond and Washington suburbs. 

Cheney noted that she and Spanberger “don’t agree on every policy.” But Spanberger, she added, is “dedicated to serving this country … and defending our Constitution.”

“Abigail’s opponent is promoting conspiracy theories, denying election outcomes she disagrees with, and defending the indefensible,” Cheney said in a statement. “We need our elected leaders to be honest, serious, and responsible.”

It’s unclear if more endorsements are forthcoming. 

One factor behind that uncertainty is the lingering question of whether Cheney’s presence in any specific battleground district would be a benefit, or a liability, for incumbent Democrats.

Cheney has won widespread praise among Trump critics of all parties, who view her denunciation of the former president as a principled stand in support of democratic traditions. And voters of that persuasion might be newly energized by an 11th-hour Cheney visit to their districts. 

But Cheney’s anti-Trump activism has also infuriated the former president’s most ardent supporters, creating risks for Democrats who might accept her public backing. Privately, some vulnerable lawmakers acknowledge the difficulty of weighing those competing factors, particularly given the scarcity of public opinion polls in many House districts.

Trump is not sitting on the sidelines of that debate. On Wednesday, his Save America PAC blasted out an email highlighting a report in The Federalist, a conservative outlet, warning that a Cheney endorsement “is the political kiss of death.”

A second factor pertains to voter priorities, as a host of recent surveys reveal that the state of the country’s democracy has been overshadowed by inflation, gas prices and other economic anxieties when it comes to the issue voters deem most important as they head to the polls.

Trump has weighed in there, as well. Another Save America PAC email linked to a headline in The Washington Examiner: “It was the economy, stupid.”

Slotkin, for one, has acknowledged the odd nature of her alliance with a former adversary, but is quick to add that the fight against election denialism is worth any political backlash. 

“The last time that she was doing media in my media market she was disagreeing with me vehemently on a point of policy,” Slotkin told CNN on Tuesday, shortly before the East Lansing event. “But we agree on one really big thing and that’s that there has to be a democratic system in order for our system to function.”

Ryan has also welcomed Cheney’s support, suggesting it would prove to be a net asset even in Ohio, where Trump defeated Biden two years ago by 8 percentage points.

“There are a lot of Republicans here in Ohio that are tired of the extremism,” Ryan told MSNBC on Tuesday. 

The idea that Cheney, the eldest daughter of the staunchly conservative former vice president, would be battling for Democrats in the midterms’ home stretch was unthinkable even 18 months ago, when she was still the third-ranking House Republican vying to flip control of the lower chamber this midterm cycle.

But the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol was a transformative event for the three-term conservative, who quickly blamed Trump for provoking the violence and later became the most outspoken GOP critic of his false claims of a “stolen” election. 

Cheney’s message directly contradicted that of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) and other top Republican leaders — who voted just hours after the rampage to undo Trump’s defeat in two states — and it led the GOP conference to boot Cheney from its leadership ranks four months later. 

Shortly afterwards, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) tapped Cheney to become the second in command of the select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack, giving her even greater voice to denounce Trump’s role in the rampage — and intensifying the backlash from Trump’s conservative base. By the time of the Wyoming primary in August, there was no contest: Cheney lost to her Trump-backed challenger, Harriet Hageman, by 37 points. 

She’s not going out quietly, however. And her campaign to help Democrats appears to be fueled by a certain personal disdain for McCarthy, who’s in line to be Speaker if the House flips — and has bent over backwards to stay in Trump’s good graces to help him secure the gavel. 

McCarthy’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

“He’s been completely unfaithful to the Constitution and demonstrated a total lack of understanding of the significance and the importance of the role of Speaker, so I don’t believe he should be Speaker of the House,” Cheney said earlier this year. “I think that’s been very clear.”

Mychael Schnell contributed. 

Source: TEST FEED1

RNC chair says committee can't pay Trump's legal bills if he announces 2024 run

Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel on Sunday told CNN the committee cannot pay former President Trump’s legal bills if he announces a bid for the White House in 2024.

The RNC’s executive committee last year confirmed it was paying for certain legal fees “that relate to politically motivated legal proceedings waged against President Trump,” and in recent months the committee has funded Trump’s defense against probes launched by Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance Jr. (D) and New York Attorney General Letitia James (D).

McDaniel told CNN’s Dana Bash that the committee “cannot pay legal bills for any candidate that’s announced” after Bash asked her if the RNC would stop paying Trump’s legal bills if he makes another run for the White House.

“We cannot pay legal bills for any candidate that’s announced. So these are bills that came from the Letitia James lawsuit that started while he was president,” McDaniel said. “It was voted on by our executive committee for our former president, that this was a politically motivated investigation and that’s what it’s been.”

“But we cannot do in kind contributions to any candidate right now. He’s the former president being attacked from every which way with lawsuits, and he’s certainly raised more under the RNC than we’ve spent on these bills,” she added.

Trump is reportedly considering announcing another run for president just after the midterm elections. The RNC has publicly maintained that it will remain neutral in the 2024 GOP nominating contest.

The Trump Organization went to trial last week in a criminal tax fraud case initially launched by Vance, who is no longer in office, which alleges the former president’s company skirted taxes and raked in perks for some of its top executives over 15 years. 

Allen Weisselberg, the Trump Organization’s former chief financial officer, pleaded guilty in August and agreed to testify as a star witness in the trial in exchange for a five-month sentence.

Trump also faces a civil lawsuit from James, who alleges Trump’s company falsely inflated and deflated the value of assets for tax and insurance benefits. 

Trump family members and many Republicans have denounced the investigation as a “witch hunt,” noting James’s mentions of investigating Trump at campaign events.

Axios reported on Friday that Trump and his team are eyeing Nov. 14 as a possible launch day for his 2024 campaign, and Trump has publicly suggested he will make an announcement “very soon.”

When asked by Bash if Trump will announce soon, McDaniel said she didn’t know.

“I don’t even know what I’m doing for Thanksgiving right now, let alone thinking about 2024,” McDaniel said.

–Updated at 12:15 p.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

Biden, Obama, Trump issue warnings ahead of midterms

President Biden and his two predecessors stumped for their party’s candidates in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania on Saturday, warning supporters that the other side poses a threat to the county.

With three days until Election Day, Biden and former President Obama joined Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman and gubernatorial nominee Josh Shapiro for an evening rally in Philadelphia.

“This is a defining moment for the nation, and we all must speak with one voice regardless of our party,” Biden said. “There’s no place in America for political violence. No place. No place for what we saw happen to Paul Pelosi.”

Biden went on to attack Republicans for imposing restrictions on abortion and voting while also suggesting they will cut Social Security and Medicare, referencing a plan unveiled by National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Rick Scott (Fla.) that would sunset all federal legislation every five years.

“Your right to choose is on the ballot,” Biden said. “Your right to vote is on the ballot.  Social Security and Medicare is on the ballot.  There’s something else on the ballot: character.  Character is on the ballot.”

Obama echoed Biden’s portrayal of the high stakes in this week’s elections, noting that Republican gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano was in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6.

“Democracy really is on the ballot,” Obama said. “Listen, Democrats may not be perfect, I am the first one to admit it…but right now, at this moment, with a few notable exceptions, most Republican politicians aren’t even pretending the rules apply to them anymore. They’re not pretending the facts apply anymore. They just make stuff up.”

But the former president acknowledged that issues like inflation are top of mind for voters after prices earlier in 2022 rose at a pace not seen in 40 years.

The economy and the cost of living have clocked in as top issues for voters, with surveys showing the public tends to trust Republicans more on the issue, increasing Republican chances of taking control of Congress.

“I understand that democracy might not seem like a top priority right now, Especially when you’re worried about paying the bills,” Obama said. “But when true democracy goes away — we’ve seen throughout history, we’ve seen around the world — when true democracy goes away, people get hurt. It has real consequences. This is not an abstraction.”

Meanwhile, Trump stumped in support of Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and Mastriano in Latrobe, Pa., located in the western part of the state, during an evening rally, returning the attacks on Democrats.

“There is only one choice to end this madness, and it is indeed madness,” Trump said. “If you support the decline and fall of America, then you must vote for the radical left Democrats. If you want to stop the destruction of our country and save the American dream, then this Tuesday you must vote Republican in a giant red wave.” 

The head-to-head rallies marked some of the final campaign events in a state where the Senate race has tightened considerably and is key to determining which party takes control, and the dueling events also denote a prelude to a potential 2024 rematch in the state between Biden and Trump.

Trump again alluded to a potential White House bid in his rally speech, one day after Axios reported that he and his team are eyeing Nov. 14 as a possible launch day for his 2024 campaign.

At one point, Trump showed rally goers a recent poll of potential 2024 Republicans that showed him at the top of the list, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who Trump called “Ron DeSanctimonious.”

“In 2024, most importantly we are going to take back our magnificent, oh, it’s so beautiful, White House,” Trump said. “We’re going to take it back and you’re going to be hearing about it very soon.”

His teasing of another presidential bid came as he railed against Democrats on immigration, inflation and foreign policy, repeatedly calling them “radical” as he also described Republicans in name only as “unpatriotic.”

“Together we are standing up against some of the most menacing forces, entrenched interests and vicious opponents our people have ever seen, we’ve never seen anything like what’s going on today,” Trump said. “Despite great outside danger, our biggest threat remains the sick, sinister and evil people from within our country.”

Source: TEST FEED1

When could student loan borrowers know if they're actually getting relief?

Millions of student loan borrowers find themselves on tenterhooks, waiting to see if they will actually get the relief proposed by President Biden as challenges to his debt forgiveness plan work their way through the courts.

The Biden administration opened up student loan forgiveness applications last month and was planning to start applying the relief this month, but those actions came to a halt after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit temporarily blocked the measure. 

Of the multiple court cases across the country, a challenge from six GOP-led states is the only one that has been successful so far in stopping the program, at least for now.

The administration is planning to forgive up to $10,000 in federal student loans for borrowers making less than $125,000 annually and up to $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients. But the 8th Circuit issued an order two weeks ago to prevent relief from being distributed while it considers arguments over whether the states have standing to sue over the plan.

A federal district judge previously ruled that the six Republican attorneys general who sued do not have standing because they could not demonstrate that Biden’s program directly harmed their states.

The 8th Circuit ended up pausing the relief program to give time for both parties to submit their briefings before making a full ruling on if the forgiveness should be paused until the whole case is settled. 

Abby Shafroth, director of National Consumer Law Center’s Student Loan Borrower Assistance Project, told The Hill borrowers will “have a decision” from the 8th Circuit soon since those briefings have been submitted. 

Legal experts said the court’s determination on whether the states have standing could be key to whether the administration will be allowed to provide relief in the next couple weeks or months from now, if at all.

Michael Sant’Ambrogio, a law professor and senior associate dean for faculty and academic affairs at Michigan State University, said a ruling on the states’ motion for a preliminary injunction should happen soon, but litigation is “rarely quick” if the full case goes to trial.

“If they grant the preliminary injunction, I would say all bets are off,” he said.

Biden said in an interview with Nexstar’s Reshad Hudson last week that he expected relief to be disbursed within two weeks, but experts said that is only possible if the injunction is denied.

Sant’Ambrogio said the Supreme Court has increasingly cut back on the power of the executive branch to take action without clear direction from Congress, and the states’ challenge could succeed based on the argument that Congress never expressly approved broad forgiveness.

“This is a very bold move by the administration, and there are certainly some questions given how the Supreme Court has been interpreting the power of the executive and federal agencies,” Sant’Ambrogio said.

While Shafroth acknowledged court cases can go on for a long time, she doesn’t expect the challenges against student debt relief to last for too long or for the courts to halt the program while they decide. 

She said it is “unusual for courts to order a party to do or not do something before they’ve decided a case.” 

“Normally, a judge would have to find the government was breaking the law before ordering them to stop,” Shafroth said. 

The six states that sued –– Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and South Carolina –– pointed to multiple failed congressional attempts to cancel debt in recent years in their complaint as evidence of a lack of congressional authorization for the administration’s action.

If the appeals court decides the states have standing and grants the preliminary injunction, their briefs on the merits of the case would not be due until mid-December. The government would then have 30 days to respond, and the states would have 21 additional days to respond to that rebuttal, which would almost certainly cause the case to go into next year.

A COVID-19 pandemic-era pause on borrowers making payments on their loans is set to end on Dec. 31, but the Biden administration could seek to extend it again. The administration had been urging borrowers to request relief by mid-November to ensure they receive it in time for the pause to end.

“It’s hard for me to imagine this being wrapped up in less than at least a month. It could potentially be two or three months before the injunction is finally lifted,” said Thomas Bennett, an associate professor of law at the University of Missouri. “And of course, if appeals courts agreed with the states that they have standing, then it could be much longer.”

He said either side could appeal an eventual 8th Circuit ruling to the Supreme Court on an expedited basis, adding that the high court may be more likely to take it if the federal government loses at the appeals court level.

He said the Supreme Court may also be more likely to take up cases that challenge the program if multiple appeals courts issue different rulings on the constitutionality of the program.

Shafroth pointed out the Supreme Court has already rejected getting involved in one case regarding the debt relief program, Brown County Taxpayers Association v. Biden, and she didn’t expect them to get involved in Garrison v. Department of Education — a prediction that proved correct on Friday when Justice Amy Coney Barrett denied an emergency effort to block the forgiveness program in the Garrison case.

“It remains to be seen if any of the other cases will go up to the Supreme Court,” Shafroth said.

Bennett, in response to Biden’s prediction, said, “It’s not likely that there would be any actual loan forgiveness in the next two weeks.”

“But in the next four weeks, in the next six weeks, I think it just becomes increasingly plausible if they’re able to win,” he added, referring to the administration.

Although Shafroth said it is hard to put an exact timeline on when this could get solved in the courts, she said she does not expect a long timeframe for decisions. 

“The parties are very clearly, on both sides, interested in resolving these cases quickly so they’re agreeing to fast briefing schedules. The courts are also recognizing the high importance of these cases and resolving them quickly,” she said. 

“I think, hopefully, we should have everything resolved fairly soon,” Shafroth said. 

Source: TEST FEED1

White House raises eyebrows with midterm strategy

The White House is raising eyebrows with its midterm strategy, which has President Biden largely staying out of key battleground states in favor of safer spots.

Biden did make a trip to Philadelphia on Saturday to provide last-minute support to Democrat John Fetterman in his pivotal Senate battle with Republican Mehmet Oz.

But Philadelphia is a true-blue city, and the president is largely staying absent from the big Senate battlegrounds in Georgia, Ohio, Nevada and Arizona.

The president is expected to end the campaign season in Maryland for a rally with Democrat Wes Moore, who is a sure bet to win his race for governor.  

One strategist dubbed the decision to keep Biden out of the hot spots as the “do no harm” strategy. It’s a reminder that Biden is energizing GOP voters, and that his faltering poll numbers are a drag on many Democratic candidates.

“He’s not going to do any harm to Wes Moore,” the strategist said. “But he would potentially hurt some of these other candidates who don’t need a reminder of the 80-year-old president with the bad economy beside them.” 

“He wants to be part of the 2022 conversation with as little impact as possible that he can be blamed for,” the strategist said. 

Of course, this isn’t the best sign for a president who has hopes of running for reelection himself in 2024.

“No one wants to talk about it, but he should be doing more of the Obama stops and he can’t,” a second strategist said, noting that former President Obama has made a number of trips to battlegrounds in recent weeks. “I don’t think it paints a good picture of what’s in store in 2024.” 

The White House has been on defense over Biden’s schedule, even if the answer is fairly obvious to followers of politics. 

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre this week argued that Biden can be helpful to Democrats from anywhere because of his bully pulpit. 

“It goes beyond just the state that he’s in, it goes beyond just the people he’s speaking in front of, and we think that matters,” she said on Thursday, adding that Biden’s speeches are televised and covered widely by the press.

It’s not that Biden has been completely absent.

Biden’s visit to Philadelphia on Saturday was one of many trips to the Keystone State recently.

Biden traveled to Florida last week to boost two Democrats who are trailing in the polls by double digits.

In a recent poll, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was leading challenger Rep. Val Demings (D) by 11 points and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was leading challenger Charlie Crist (D) by 14 points.

Some look at the week before Election Day as the time to build on momentum, but not change voters’ minds.

“Overall, at this point, it’s all get out the vote. At this point, it’s motivating our early vote, you know, not necessarily persuading. So, I think he’s going everywhere that is required of him and having a very strong close,” said Ivan Zapien, a lobbyist and former Democratic National Committee (DNC) official.

First lady Jill Biden is traveling to Arizona on Saturday to campaign for Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who has seen his race with Republican Blake Masters tighten. Vice President Harris will join Biden in true-blue Chicago on Sunday, while second gentleman Doug Emhoff traveled to Iowa on Friday to campaign for gubernatorial candidate Deidre DeJear (D).

Jean-Pierre, pressed Thursday on why Biden is only visiting blue states, pointed to stops where other officials are visiting and said, “this is an — if you will — all of government, kind of, process here.”

Obama is arguably Democrats’ most helpful surrogate and has been using his star power on the trail.

Brandon Neal, former DNC political director and political adviser to Obama and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, said that using surrogates like Obama to help Biden get out the vote is essential.

“You can’t go to everything all at once. I think it’s a matter of identifying who will be the most appropriate person, deploying the top surrogates,” he said. “I think having former President Obama go in his place is equally fine.”

Obama has garnered headlines in the last week for his fiery rhetoric. He has made stops alongside Mandela Barnes, the Democratic Senate hopeful, in Milwaukee, and in Atlanta, where he lambasted Republican Herschel Walker, who is running to replace Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock. 

Walker is “someone who carries around a phony badge and says he is in law enforcement like a kid playing cops and robbers,” Obama said as part of a speech full of scathing attacks on the candidate. 

But some strategists say that both Biden and Obama have taken on traditional roles in the midterm elections. When he was president, for example, Obama relied on surrogates including former President Clinton to headline rallies for candidates, particularly in 2010 and 2014. 

“It’s normal in presidential campaigns or just campaigns, especially in midterms,” Neal said. “If you are in a place that’s considered conservative or considered not necessarily a blue state, then some states would rather have a former president versus an existing just by way of who’s in the White House.”

Some strategists argue that having Biden end the campaign season with the Maryland trip for Moore is a smart move because he is considered a rising star.

“I think that Wes Moore brings a certain energy and certain excitement back to Maryland, very similar to what President Obama gave when he ran for president in 2008,” Neal said. “I also think it’s a state that is close, it’s not far geographically, so it’s easy to go in and seal the deal.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Five races where Democrats could pull off surprise wins

Democrats are bracing for a possible red wave as the national mood has shifted and surveys increasingly show voters seeing economy and inflation as the top issues heading into the election. 

But for all the doom and gloom that political watchers are forecasting for the party, Democrats could also benefit from some surprise wins in unexpected places.

Here are five races where Democrats could pull off some upsets.

Arizona governor’s race

Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Kari Lake are going to head to head for Arizona’s gubernatorial seat, which was left open since Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is term-limited. Hobbs, Arizona’s secretary of state, became more of a recognizable name following her criticism of a 2020 election audit of Maricopa County results that was prompted by baseless claims from former President Trump.

Meanwhile, Lake, a former local news anchor, gained notoriety for pushing false claims about the last election, eventually earning Trump’s endorsement. The race has at times grown ugly as Lake has repeatedly hit Hobbs over refusing to debate her, claiming Hobbs is trying to hide from the press and the candidate.

In an interview with “CNN This Morning” this week, Hobbs defended her decision not to debate Lake, a former local news anchor, saying that “she centered her entire platform around this election denialism, I didn’t want to give her a bigger stage to do that.”

While Hobbs’s decision not to debate has drawn scrutiny, public polling has shown that the move might not have hurt her. One Fox News poll earlier this week showed Lake ahead of Hobbs, 47 percent to 46 percent, which is within the margin of error for the poll. A New York Times/Siena College released late last month showed Lake and Hobbs tied. And an Emerson College Polling survey released Friday found the two candidates also neck and neck.

Ohio Senate race

Ohio, once the quintessential swing state, has been seen as increasingly out of reach for Democrats since Trump won the presidency in 2016, even after Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) managed to hold onto his seat in 2018. For this reason, many observers initially wrote off this year’s Senate race between Trump ally J.D. Vance and Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), focusing instead on other high-profile races in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia.

But Ryan has managed to beat the odds and run a competitive campaign against the “Hillbilly Elegy” author, painting himself as a no-nonsense thorn in the side to Beltway lawmakers on both sides of the aisle while memorably branding his opponent as an “ass-kisser” to Trump.

To be sure, Vance is still the clear favorite to win the race. While many recent polls suggest Ryan trails the Republican by only a handful of points, a survey released Friday from Emerson College Polling found Vance widening his lead over his opponent.

Still, if there’s any lesson to be drawn from the Senate race in Ohio, it’s that one shouldn’t count out Ryan, who has proven to be a formidable campaigner in a state that is trending red.

On Tuesday, he might surprise people even more.  

Oklahoma governor’s race

The Sooner State hasn’t seen a Democrat elected to the governor’s mansion since former Gov. Brad Henry was reelected in 2006. A Republican stronghold, Trump won the state by more than 30 points in 2016 and 2020.

So Republicans are understandably scratching their heads about how the race has tightened in recent weeks and even required the Republican Governors Association (RGA) to spend seven figures in the state. 

Part of it has to do with five of the biggest Native American tribes making the unusual move to wade into the race and back Democrat Joy Hofmeister, a former Republican and the state’s superintendent of public instruction. Stitt drew the ire of indigenous tribes after hunting and fishing compacts with the Choctaw and Cherokee Nations were not renewed and for trying to have gaming compacts with tribes renegotiated.  

Hofmeister has also used education and crime to go after the incumbent, including an education voucher proposal by Stitt that was defeated given that it was unpopular among rural lawmakers.

Recent surveys have shown Stitt and Hofmeister polling with the margin of error. An KOCO 5-Amber Integrated poll out on Thursday found Stitt at 45 percent and Hofmeister at 44 percent, while an Ascend Action poll out earlier this week showed Hofmeister leading Stitt 48 percent to 45 percent, both of which are within the margin of error. 

Montana’s 1st Congressional District race

Former Trump Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke won Montana’s at-large House seat in 2014 and 2016 with double digits. Zinke is running in Montana’s 1st Congressional District after the state gained an extra seat following the 2020 Census and he notched former president Trump’s endorsement before his primary. This district would have gone 7 points last election to Trump had it used the new congressional map.

That should put the House race well within reach for Zinke, but Democrat Monica Tranel, a former Olympic athlete and attorney, is making the race more competitive than usual. 

Partially explaining this is the fact that Zinke barely edged out fellow GOP contender Al Olszewski in his primary earlier this year, winning it by roughly 2 points. Zinke also left the Trump White House on a sour note while he was under investigation in multiple probes. 

While the nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman noted last month that the race was still favored toward Zinke, they shifted their ratings from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” saying in part “the creation of a brand new western seat that unites the college towns of Missoula and Bozeman, combined with GOP former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke’s high negatives, have kept Democratic attorney Monica Tranel competitive.”

Wisconsin Senate race

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is fighting for a third term in the Senate and is seen as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican. Democrat Mandela Barnes, the state’s lieutenant governor, is looking to disrupt that streak. And while most polls show Barnes trailing Johnson, sometimes within the margin of error, it’s possible Barnes could pull off a surprise upset.

A Marquette Law School Poll released earlier this week showing Johnson ahead of Barnes among likely voters 50 percent to 48 percent. Meanwhile, an Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey also out this week showed the senator edging out the lieutenant governor outside the margin of error in that poll at 50 percent and 46 percent respectively. 

The senator has also at times strayed into controversy, including comments earlier this summer suggesting that Medicare and Social Security should be considered for annual approval and allegations from a House select panel that his office was involved in a fake elector scheme. Johnson says he had no participation in such a scheme. Even during a debate between himself and Barnes, he drew boos after he was asked what he found admirable about his challenger.

But the race is still an uphill challenge for Barnes, who has been whacked continuously on claims that he’s soft on crime. And the nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently changed their race rating for the seat from “toss up” to “lean Republican,” with editor Jessica Taylor noting that “Many national Democratic strategists we talked to closely watching this race concede those attacks have worked, and aren’t optimistic given the worsening political environment.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump jabs at DeSantis during rally: 'Ron DeSanctimonious'

Former President Trump took aim at Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) at a campaign rally on Saturday night, coining the nickname “Ron DeSanctimonious” for the politician who is widely viewed as Trump’s greatest competition for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

Trump called out his potential political rival at Saturday’s rally in Latrobe, Pa., while also continuing to tease his own run in 2024. 

“This is the year we’re going to take back the House. We’re going to take back the Senate. And we’re going to take back America. We’re going to take it back,” Trump said. “And in 2024, most importantly, we are going to take back our magnificent, oh-so beautiful White House.”

“Everybody, I promise you, in the very next, very, very, very short period of time, you’re going to be so happy,” he added at another point in the rally.

Axios reported on Friday that Trump’s team is considering launching his presidential bid on Nov. 14, less than a week after voters head to the polls in the midterm elections.

However, Trump all but confirmed his imminent announcement, suggesting that he would announce if he wasn’t stumping for Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and Republican gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano.

“One of the reasons I don’t want to do that right now — cause I’d like to do it — but you know what, and I really mean this, I want to have the focus tonight be on Dr. Oz and on Doug Mastriano.”

Most polls show Trump leading DeSantis in a potential matchup for the Republican nomination. However, the Florida governor remains the greatest threat to the former president, while other potential nominees, such as former Vice President Mike Pence and Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), appear further behind.

As Trump heads to Miami for a rally with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) on Sunday, the former president will maintain his distance from DeSantis, who was noticeably not invited to the rally, Politico reported.

DeSantis will instead attend three of his own rallies on Sunday, as part of a 13-city blitz announced after the Trump rally was scheduled, according to Politico.

Trump’s Pennsylvania rally on Saturday competed with a major rally from Democrats, as both President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama descended on the state to support Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman and gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro.The Pennsylvania Senate race, which is currently locked in a dead heat, is one of several tight races that could determine control of the upper chamber of Congress.

Updated 10:58 p.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

Obama says 'we'd have a very different Supreme Court' if Dems had kept the Senate in 2014

Former President Obama on Saturday said that the makeup of the Supreme Court would be very different if Democrats had held onto the Senate in the 2014 midterms, laying out the importance of this midterm cycle, particularly on the future of reproductive rights.

“If we have kept the Senate in 2014, we’d have a very different Supreme Court making decisions about our most basic rights. So, midterms are no joke,” Obama said at a Democratic rally at Temple University in Philadelphia, Pa.

The 2014 midterms were held during Obama’s second term and Republicans flipped the Senate and retained control of the House. 

Obama in 2016 nominated now-Attorney General Merrick Garland to serve on the Supreme Court to replace the late Antonin Scalia, a conservative justice. Senate Republicans refused to consider Garland and left the seat vacant until the Trump administration, when conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch filled the vacancy. The current conservative majority on the high court overturned Roe v. Wade this summer. 

“I can tell you from experience that midterms matter, a lot,” Obama said. “Some of you are too young but let me refresh your memories or give you a history lesson. When I was president, I got my butt whooped in midterm elections.”

The former president talked about abortion rights throughout his remarks, while rallying for Pennsylvania’s Democratic candidate John Fetterman and gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro.

He bashed Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz for saying during a debate that health care decisions should be made between women, doctors, and local political leaders.

“Really? Are you going to petition the mayor? Are you calling the sheriff? City council members? School board? Who exactly should tell you when to start a family? You should make that decision,” Obama said. “And if that’s not worth 15 minutes of your time—the amount of time it takes to vote—I don’t know what is.”

He also said that Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano has said women who get an abortion and the doctors who provide abortions should be prosecuted.

“You deserve leaders who will stand up for a woman’s right to control her own body and make her own healthcare decisions,” he said.

Obama joined President Biden for the rally in Philadelphia on Saturday evening, bringing his star power to the Keystone State where the Senate race could decide control of the Upper Chamber. 

The rally, just three days before the election, comes as Oz was leading Fetterman 48 percent to 46 percent among very likely voters in a recent poll.

Source: TEST FEED1