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Five questions looming as Elon Musk's Twitter deal nears closing

Elon Musk appears to be on the cusp of finalizing his $44 billion deal to take over Twitter ahead of a court-imposed Friday deadline, but the future of the platform remains uncertain as the billionaire space and auto executive prepares to jump into the social media scene.

Ahead of the expected closing, Musk entered Twitter’s headquarters and issued a statement to advertisers about his plans for the company. Amid conflicting reports about how Musk intends to handle staffing and ongoing concerns from critics about the freewheeling Tesla and SpaceX CEO’s plans for a “free speech” platform, however, it’s not clear how Twitter will change in months to come.

Here are five questions looming ahead of Musk’s pending takeover. 

What will content moderation look like?

Throughout the six-month saga of Musk’s agreement to buy Twitter, he’s indicated he would shift the platform to be in line with his views of a free speech environment by peeling back measures Twitter currently has in place that bar certain content.

Those comments have sparked concern from civil society groups that have already been sounding the alarm that Twitter isn’t taking a tough enough stance against hate speech and misinformation and argue that under Musk’s control that type of content could spread even more widely.

Such a rise in disinformation could in turn drive away advertisers, which would cut into Twitter’s main source of revenue. 

Musk seemingly tried to quell those concerns in a message to advertisers he posted Thursday, telling them Twitter “obviously cannot become a free-for-all hellscape, where anything can be said with no consequences.”

“Fundamentally, Twitter aspires to be the most respected advertising platform in the world that strengthens your brand and grows your enterprise. To everyone who has partnered with us, I thank you. Let us build something extraordinary together,” he wrote. 

The message, though, is still light on details that indicate to what extent Musk plans to change Twitter’s policies on moderating content.

Will Trump return? 

One of the most direct changes Musk has indicated he would make is letting former President Trump back on Twitter. 

In an interview in May at an event hosted by the Financial Times, Musk said he would reverse the platform’s permanent ban on Trump. He called Twitter’s decision to ban Trump over posts it deemed to incite violence around the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol a “morally bad decision” and “foolish in the extreme.”

If the former president’s account is reinstated under Musk’s leadership, he would again have access to his once favored platform and a means of communicating more directly to a wide audience.

Since he was booted from Twitter, Trump has struggled to gain a similar platform for reaching his base the way he once did with Twitter. 

He launched his own social media site, Truth Social, earlier this year. But its user numbers pale in comparison to Twitter’s. Truth Social had roughly 9 million visits in August, versus Twitter’s 6.8 billion the same month, according to data from SimilarWeb.

There’s also a chance whatever action Twitter takes under Musk could impact the broader social media landscape in terms of Trump’s suspensions. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, is set to reevaluate its decision on whether to let Trump back on at the beginning of 2023. If Twitter gives the former president renewed access to the platform, it could give Meta impetus to take the same action.

What will happen to Twitter’s staff?

Musk reportedly plans to make cuts to Twitter’s 7,500 person workforce, though it is not clear to what extent. 

Musk told prospective investors that he plans to slim Twitter’s workforce by nearly 75 percent, to a staff of around 2,000, The Washington Post reported last week.

Musk pushed back on the reporting, telling employees Wednesday that he does not plan to reduce the workforce to that extent, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News. But he is still expected to cut some staff as part of the takeover, Bloomberg reported.

Those cuts could also impact the company’s ability to moderate content and how the site runs effectively for users. 

Twitter is not the only social media company that could be making workforce cuts as platforms reckon with a changing online advertising market and overall economic downturn.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg on an earnings call Wednesday said some teams will be held flat and others will see cuts. The company predicted its headcount at the end of 2023 will roughly be in line with the third quarter of this year, however.

How will Musk’s takeover impact the right-wing social media app market? 

Alternative social media platforms offering lax content moderation measures have popped up in recent years, catering to right-wing audiences as a number of conservative figures have been booted from mainstream platforms for violating platform policies. 

Several of those sites offer similar message-sharing capabilities as Twitter, including Truth Social, launched by Trump, Gettr, founded by former Trump aide Jason Miller, and Parler, which Ye, the rapper formerly known as Kanye West, is seeking to buy. Ye was banned from Twitter earlier this month over antisemitic content.

The platforms each boast their limited moderation efforts and largely allow the conspiracy theories, misinformation and hate speech that mainstream sites like Twitter have sought to ban. 

But if Twitter allows for more of that content under Musk, as he’s indicated, the change could cut into the number of users on those platforms — or even kill some of the alternative sites, said President and CEO of the left-leaning watchdog group Media Matters Angelo Carusone. 

“Most of the users that are on Truth Social or Parler or Gettr, they really want to be on Twitter. It’s just they can’t do and say the things they want to do on Twitter. So they have to use these alternatives, but that’s where they really want to be because they want to ‘own the libs’ and they want to have a larger user base,” Carusone told The Hill in an interview earlier this month. 

What other changes are on the horizon? 

Musk’s chief call for change at Twitter has centered on carrying out his vision for a free speech environment, but he’s indicated other updates that the platform may include under his leadership, too. 

When announcing the initial acquisition agreement in April, Musk said he wanted to make Twitter’s algorithm open source in an effort to “increase trust.”

He also said that he wants to “defeat the spam bots” and authenticate all human users. 

Musk’s takeover of Twitter may also serve as a launching point for his plans to create “X,” which he’s called the “everything app.” Earlier this month he said that buying Twitter was an “accelerant” toward creating X.

Source: TEST FEED1

Progressives' Ukraine letter darkens Jayapal leadership prospects

An ill-timed push by a group of House progressives for a diplomatic agreement with Russia may have dashed the leadership prospects of the caucus’s chairwoman, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.). 

The move by members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus has infuriated Democrats and blunted the image of unity on Ukraine the party wanted to put forward in the final days of campaigning before the midterms. 

“I look forward to next year’s Progressive Caucus election and new leadership,” said one senior Democratic strategist involved with progressive candidates and on Capitol Hill. “Jayapal has lost the faith of her colleagues.”

Jayapal, a liberal in her third term representing Seattle, has made it well known in recent weeks that she’s eying a chance to enter the Democratic leadership ranks after the elections, when there could be an expansive, top-down shakeup of the party brass.

But the decision by her office to release a letter this week pressing President Biden to engage directly with Russia to bring the months-long conflict in Ukraine to “a rapid end” has dumbfounded many of Jayapal’s colleagues, who fear it weakened the president’s hand — and strengthened embattled Russian President Vladimir Putin’s — just as Ukrainian forces have turned the tide of the conflict in their favor. 

It also seems to have undermined her chances of winning their support for a leadership bid. 

“It’s a deadly error for her,” said a former House leadership aide who keeps in touch with lawmakers across the caucus. “That was a big screw up. People were pissed — like, what are we doing on messaging?”

Like many ambitious Democrats angling for a leadership position, Jayapal has been quiet about what role she’s aiming to fill. That’s largely a function of the continued uncertainty surrounding the future of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her top two lieutenants, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Democratic Whip Jim Clyburn (S.C.), none of whom have announced their post-election plans.

Still, Jayapal has made clear that she’s considering a run at leadership — in a “top” spot. 

Jayapal’s efforts to shape the Democratic Party have often stretched beyond the day-to-day legislative process in Congress and straddled the progressive-centrist divide. 

Throughout Biden’s first term in office, she has been perceived as a helpful ally to his administration and even the president himself. The two have had personal conversations and she is in regular touch with senior White House officials, including chief of staff Ron Klain. 

Unlike some more outspoken members of the caucus, including those in the Squad, Democrats believe that her willingness to stay mostly within the guardrails of the administration’s priorities, while also pushing them to the left on key agenda items, has been one of her assets as chair. 

That advocacy has borne fruit, as progressives have scored countless provisions in the major pieces of legislation — including the recent climate, tax and health care bill — enacted by Biden this Congress.

Defenders credit her discipline and ability to build consensus, often noting that she’s become an expert in several different policy areas in a short period of time. 

“I’ve worked with the CPC almost from the beginning when it was a very skimpy organization,” said Larry Cohen, a close ally of Jayapal who chairs Our Revolution, a group aligned with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). “The amount of time and creativity that she has put into that organization, you wouldn’t recognize it from what it was before.”

Cohen said that it was the work of House progressives under Jayapal’s tenure who moved the ball forward on many of Biden’s accomplishments.

“Anybody who thinks there is a strategy for real change without the Congressional Progressive Caucus I would call delusional,” said Cohen. “Her work ethic is at the highest level in terms of not self promotion, but focusing on the end result. She compromises to get things done, but also works the issues at almost [a] 168 hour a week limit.”

Still, this week’s Ukraine uproar was not the first time Jayapal and her progressive supporters have stirred controversy within the party for breaking with Biden on key policies.

Last year, as Biden sought to enact bipartisan legislation to fund national infrastructure projects, Jayapal and members of the Progressive Caucus vowed to oppose that $1 trillion package unless it was accompanied by passage of another even larger bill: the $2.2 trillion climate, health and tax package known at the time as the Build Back Better Act.

The resulting stalemate lasted for months, frustrating centrist Democrats who wanted to secure a big bipartisan victory for Biden, whose approval rating had plummeted following the deadly withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Even now, there’s lingering resentment among those moderates that the impasse was a self-inflicted wound on the party at large. 

The debacle early this week brought even more scrutiny to her leadership style and ability to execute on a strategy at a critical political moment.  The letter’s timing, which was released after early voting had started and as others prepare to go to the polls, had some Democrats cautioning that she might not be ready for an elevated spot.

In offering a full retraction — after a bungled attempt at a clarification that left many Democrats more confused — Jayapal took partial responsibility for the letter’s release, but also made a point to involve her staff, a move that in itself was seen as lacking diplomacy and violating an unspoken rule in Washington.

“If you can’t roll out a letter correctly without throwing your team under the bus, what can you do?” the campaign strategist said. 

One progressive lawmaker and caucus member, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), took to Twitter to defend staffers working inside the Progressive Caucus, while others said the online chatter doesn’t help her cause. 

“If Twitter is real life, there’s an awful lot of people that are disappointed,” said Jim Manley, a former Senate aide, who has been critical of Jayapal’s handling of the caucus. 

A spokesperson from the Congressional Progressive Caucus declined to comment. 

Released Monday, the progressives’ letter arrived at a time of heightened concerns that an increasingly desperate Putin is preparing some form of nuclear attack in Ukraine. The group of 30 liberals called on Biden to combine the substantial military and economic aid the U.S. has provided to Kyiv with “a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire.” Such a settlement, they conceded, would likely involve “some form of sanctions relief.” 

Ukrainian leaders have resisted such negotiations, fearing they would inevitably lead to a loss of Ukrainian territory. They’ve vowed to fight until Russian forces are expelled, and Biden has made clear that his policy will be to back their tactical decisions. 

The blowback from fellow Democrats was swift, and it included repudiations from even some of the liberal lawmakers on the letter, who said they’d signed it months ago, when the Ukraine war was in a different phase, and were not warned that Jayapal’s office was releasing it this week. Some said they would never have endorsed such a message this month, given the recent success Ukraine has had militarily against the invading Russian forces.

“Diplomacy is one important tool in the process of making peace, but given the progression of the war, the war crimes and atrocities committed by Putin’s regime and the Russian army, I would not have signed this letter today,” said Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), a former chairman of the Progressive Caucus.

Adding to the frustrations, Democrats heading into the midterms have sought to portray Republicans as the party that’s unwilling to defend Ukraine — an argument fueled by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) recent warning that Republicans, if they take control of the House next year, would not be a “blank check” for assistance to Kyiv. 

“This letter is an olive branch to a war criminal who’s losing his war,” Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), a former Marine, tweeted on Monday. “Ukraine is on the march. Congress should be standing firmly behind @JoeBidens effective strategy, including tighter – not weaker! – sanctions.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Biden clocks 118 mph but loses drag race against Colin Powell's son on 'Jay Leno’s Garage'

President Biden zoomed behind the wheel of a classic Corvette, hitting 118 mph as he competed in a drag race in an episode of “Jay Leno’s Garage” that aired Wednesday night.

Biden, 79, packed into a 1967 Corvette Stingray with a 350 horsepower, a classic car that was a wedding gift from his father.

“I was getting married in August of ’67. My dad didn’t have a lot of money but he ran the largest Chevrolet dealership in the state for years,” he said. “So, there’s 75 people outside the dealership. We pull up, they spread. My dad says, ‘This is my wedding gift.'”

Biden buckled in for the race at a Secret Service training facility in Beltsville, Md., against Michael Powell, the son of former Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Powell, behind the wheel of a 2015 Corvette Stingray with 455 horsepower, had a slight advantage against the president after beating him off the line.

But Biden hung in close as he clocked in at 118 mph, coming in not far behind Powell as they rolled to a stop.

“I am in so much trouble,” Leno joked after Biden completed the race. “Uh oh, here comes the Secret Service.”

Powell’s victory settles a score between Biden and the late Colin Powell after they raced against each other in season two of “Jay Leno’s Garage.” The 2016 drag race ended in a Biden win.

Biden, a known car enthusiast, appeared on the CNBC show to promote electric vehicles (EVs), a major part of the Inflation Reduction Act passed in August.

The legislation includes new incentives to encourage the use of EVs, with the federal government rolling out more charging stations and tax credits for the purchase of the eco-friendly cars.

Biden also drove an electrified 1978 Ford F100 truck, which he said was “quiet as hell” and smooth to drive.

The president also discussed the importance of EVs, calling it an “answer” to the financial security of automobile companies and a chance to do “something good.”

“This is the only time you get to drive,” Leno remarked.

“Yeah, it is,” Biden replied. “It’s the God’s truth, and I miss it.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Biden moves to scrap Trump-era sea-launched nuclear missile program

The Biden administration is seeking to scrap the U.S. military’s development of nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles, despite recommendations to the contrary from top officials, according to the Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy released Thursday.   

The decision, which comes over top Defense Department officials’ public recommendations to keep the weapon, is part of a sweeping new strategy calling for better military deterrence in the face of threats from Russia and China.  

The document, which also includes a review of America’s nuclear arsenal and missile defenses, reverses the Trump administration’s 2018 move to develop a new nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N), a weapon meant to focus specifically on a Russian threat. 

The U.S. will still maintain a submarine-launched nuclear arsenal.

The Biden administration said the Trump-era program was “no longer necessary” as the United States already has the “means to deter limited nuclear use.” 

Asked about the decision on Thursday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. nuclear weapons inventory is already significant and that officials had determined the submarine-launched cruise missile wasn’t a necessary add. 

“We determined, as we looked at our inventory, that we did not need that capability. We have a lot of capability in our nuclear inventory,” Austin told reporters at the Pentagon. 

He added that he doesn’t believe the move sends any message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose current nuclear saber rattling over Ukraine has prompted renewed scrutiny of the United States’ nuclear arsenal.  

“He understands what our capability is, and . . . we’ll continue to move forward,” Austin said.  

The administration’s decision to cancel the missile is not entirely surprising, as it falls in line with its Navy’s fiscal year 2023 budget request released earlier this year. The service hoped to eliminated funding for research and development into the new SLCM-N, indicating that the program was “cost prohibitive and the acquisition schedule would have delivered capability late to need.”  

Ahead of the document’s release, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters that the program was cut because even with full funding, the missiles would not be ready until 2035. 

The Biden administration still wants billions of dollars to refurbish the three legs of the U.S. nuclear triad – which includes ground-based inter-continental ballistic missiles, bomber aircraft and submarine-launched weapons, all with nuclear payloads — but looks to save by slashing the development of the SLCM-N. 

But Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley in April told lawmakers that his views on the SLCM-N and other low-yield nuclear weapons have not altered. 

Milley had backed the Trump-era weapons decision in written answers during his 2019 Senate confirmation process, writing that they “are necessary to enable our flexible and tailored deterrence strategy as we modernize aging nuclear forces.” 

“My position on SLCM-N has not changed,” Milley told the House Armed Services Committee in April. “My general view is that this president or any president deserves to have multiple options to deal with national security situations.” 

Congress could still move to resist the Pentagon effort to cancel the missile. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Putin: Russia has no plans to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia does not intend to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine despite previous threats he has made that it may turn to them in its war. 

He said at a conference of international foreign policy experts that using nuclear weapons against Ukraine would have no political or military purpose. He also said the West is looking to achieve international domination through the conflict. 

Putin also repeated his previous claims that Russians and Ukrainians are a single people who should be united and tried to delegitimize Ukraine as an independent country. 

Putin has gradually stepped up threats of Russia potentially using tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield against Ukraine to defend Russian territory. 

He has said that he considers Russian territory to include the four regions of Ukraine where Russian soldiers oversaw annexation referendums last month. The referendums in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia passed with more than 90 percent, but the international community has widely denounced the elections as illegal and illegitimate. 

Putin said in his remarks that NATO’s refusal to rule out Ukraine joining the military alliance and Ukraine’s refusal to support a peace agreement with separatists forced the Kremlin to act. 

Russian-backed separatists have been fighting Ukraine in the Donbas region, made up of Donetsk and Luhansk, since 2014. 

Russia also does not have complete control over the regions as Ukraine has retaken thousands of square kilometers of territory as part of a counteroffensive it has conducted over the past two months. 

Russian officials have recently accused Ukraine of intending to launch a so-called dirty bomb, which would spread radioactive material in an explosion, but Ukraine and its Western allies have rejected the claim. 

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Source: TEST FEED1

Cook Political Report shifts Arizona Senate rating to 'toss up'

The Cook Political Report said on Thursday that it would be shifting its rating of the Arizona Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up” less than two weeks ahead of the November midterms.

Jessica Taylor, Cook’s Senate and governors editor, said the nonpartisan election handicapper was shifting the race back to a “toss up” because recent private polling has shown the race between Sen. Mark Kelley (D) and Republican Blake Masters tightening up despite the fact that Democrats are outspending Republicans in the state by a 2-to-1 margin.

Even recent public surveys have shown the two polling within the margin of error. A poll from the left-leaning Data for Progress released on Wednesday showed the candidates tied at 47 percent each.

While Taylor noted that Kelly was favored to win among all of the Senate seats they’ve rated as “toss ups,” she said that “if Arizona is falling, many states before it already have, most likely, including Nevada and maybe Georgia.”

“Given the spending disparity, some Democrats rightly worry about what the race would look like were they not so heavily outspending Masters, underscoring again just how important the fundraising advantage has been across the board for Democrats. Kelly outperformed Biden in the state in 2020 by two points, but it was also by a much narrower margin than polling two years ago,” she also noted.

The Senate Republicans’ campaign arm slashed spending in the race in August, and a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) canceled $9.6 million in spending in the state in September. And while former President Trump has traveled to Arizona twice this year, he’s notably left the state out of a last-minute campaign blitz.

Source: TEST FEED1

US economy rebounds with 2.6 percent growth rate in third quarter

U.S. economic growth rebounded during the third quarter after six months of steady declines, according to data released Thursday by the Commerce Department.

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at annualized rate of 2.6 between July and September, up from declines of 1.6 percent in the second quarter and 0.6 percent in third quarter of 2022, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.

That means that if the third quarter’s pace of growth lasted 12 months, the U.S. economy would have grown 2.6 percent by the end of that time.

Economists expected U.S. GDP to rise at an annualized rate of 2.3 percent in the third quarter, according to consensus estimates.

The stronger than expected GDP report comes amid increasing concerns about whether the U.S. will slip into a recession next year amid high inflation, a slowdown in Europe, and rising Federal Reserve interest rates. While economists still fear the U.S. could hit a recession next year, the GDP rebound is further proof that the American economy had avoided one so far.

The third quarter GDP increase was driven almost entirely by a surge in exports—which add to GDP calculations—and steep decline in imports, which detract from GDP. The trade dynamic shifted rapidly from the first and second quarters, when surging imports and declining exports turned GDP growth negative despite strong activity elsewhere in the economy.

Consumer spending also held firm during the third quarter, rising 1.4 percent after an increase of 2 percent during the second quarter.

Even so, the strong headline numbers masked other signs of the U.S. economy slipping in key sectors.

Gross private domestic investment, a catch-all category for money spent on things meant to grow the economy, fell 8.5 percent in the third quarter. The decline came as spending on structures sank 15.3 percent and spending on homes plunged 26.4 percent on the quarter.

Final sales to private domestic purchasers, which measures business spending, also rose just 0.1 percent on the quarter.

Updated at 9:14 a.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

The Hill's Morning Report — Democrats bet on big names, big bucks in Pa. Senate race

President Biden is working to help Democrats win next month in a Pennsylvania all-drama-all-the-time Senate contest. 

This discouraging quote gave the West Wing pause on Wednesday: “Fetterman’s team never should have agreed to this debate. He still clearly has serious health issues.“

It was just one of many downbeat assessments offered by Democratic operatives and nervous analysts, referring to the Tuesday night debate between Democratic Senate contender Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke he suffered five months ago, and Republican surgeon Mehmet Oz, the TV-savvy celebrity intent on a new career in Washington.

The Monday morning quarterbacking about Fetterman’s faltering debate presentation amid a high-stakes contest elevated Democrats’ anxieties about Senate control next year. Other toss-up contests are in Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. The Pennsylvania debate between the 6-foot, 9-inch Fetterman, whose speech is occasionally halting and imperfect, left viewers focused on his health and distracted from one Oz gaffe in which the physician said abortion decisions should be left to women, doctors and “local political leaders,” noted The Hill’s Al Weaver.

Biden and Vice President Harris will be in Philadelphia on Friday for a rare campaign appearance as a duo to try to help Fetterman defeat Oz (The Hill). The president and vice president will headline a political reception for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party as the lieutenant governor’s lead hovers within the margin of error, according to polls.

“I don’t think there’s anything Joe Biden or Kamala Harris can do at this point to help the party in the midterm elections,” said one Democratic strategist (The Hill).

Biden directed the Democratic National Committee on Tuesday to immediately transfer an additional $10 million to the House and Senate Democratic campaign arms and offered an additional $8 million for the two groups through fundraising ahead of Election Day, Politico reported. Aides to Biden believe Senate control hangs on the results in Pennsylvania and Georgia.

And speaking of the Peach State, a second unidentified woman claims that Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker, who assures Georgia voters he is staunchly opposed to abortion, drove her to a clinic in the 1990s for an abortion against her wishes, The Daily Beast reports. Walker is challenging Sen. Raphael Warnock (D).

In a Georgia election interference probe stemming from 2020, former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows must appear before a grand jury, a judge in South Carolina ruled on Wednesday (NBC News and CNN). Meadows was a North Carolina congressman before going to work for former President Trump. He now lives in South Carolina.  

▪ The Atlantic: The Fetterman-Oz debate was a Rorschach test.

▪ ABC News: The Fetterman-Oz debate sparked much discussion about “ableism” in politics. 

▪ The New York Times explored how people with disabilities viewed the lieutenant governor’s auditory and speech deficits.

▪ Politico: Biden’s low job approval ratings weigh on undecided voters, but they still might vote for Democrats: poll.

▪ The Hill: Trump will hold a rally in Latrobe, Pa., three days before Election Day to help Oz and Doug Mastriano, the GOP candidate for governor who is trailing Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro (CBS News). Biden previously scheduled a Philadelphia appearance on Nov. 5 to boost Fetterman along with former President Obama (The Hill).

Related Articles

▪ The New York Times: The Justice Department wants to force two Trump White House lawyers to testify to a grand jury about Jan. 6, 2021, events to try to pierce Trump’s privilege claims.

▪ Semafor and The Hill: New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is under federal investigation again.

▪ Roll Call: House Republicans scrutinize Biden with a restored legislative oversight tool known as resolutions of inquiry.

▪ The Washington Post: Meet the mega-donors pumping millions into the 2022 midterms.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ MORE POLITICS

With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, some pivotal Senate races are tightening, writes The Hill’s Al Weaver — and not just the three contests widely considered key to control of the chamber next year. Republicans assert a potentially decisive surge of momentum in the New Hampshire Senate race.

At noon, New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and Republican challenger Don Bolduc are scheduled to debate, broadcast by New Hampshire PBS and New Hampshire Public Radio (information HERE). 

Recent surveys show that Democrats are narrowing gaps in Wisconsin and Iowa; the GOP is still favored in both Senate races. 

“Do I think it’s going to be close? Yes. Do I think some people may be taking it for granted? Possibly,” one Wisconsin GOP operative told The Hill. “Democrats are outspending Republicans on the airwaves in the final weeks, which is not ideal. … [Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.)] is still the favorite, but it’s going to be close.”

Trump will head to Iowa on Nov. 3 to stump for longtime Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) and Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), just days before voters head to the polls (The Hill).

Meanwhile, in Washington, 30-year incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) is facing an unexpectedly tough challenge from Republican Tiffany Smiley, prompting Democrats to add millions in television spending to boost her race, in a sign that the party is employing a take-no-chances approach even in a solidly blue state.

A Seattle Times poll from last week showed Murray’s lead over Smiley slipping slightly, to 49 percent against Smiley’s 41 percent. In July, Murray led Smiley 51 to 33 percent (Politico).

Harris attended a fundraiser for Murray in Seattle on Wednesday, where she said that when they both served in the Senate, Murray “would be the voice to speak up and say, ‘Hey, this is a moment where we need to have the courage to fight.’”

The Seattle Times: Harris, in Seattle, touts electric school buses, infrastructure bill.

In Nevada, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is the most at-risk incumbent in the upper chamber and her race against Republican Adam Laxalt has been affected by the rising cost-of-living in the state. Higher expenses impact a key Democratic constituency, white-collar and working-class voters, particularly Latinos, who are urged to vote by the powerful Culinary Union.

Working-class voters of color have been reliable Democratic supporters in recent years, but they are among the hardest hit by rising rents, gas prices and grocery bills. Democratic strategists worry that they may not vote, or that the GOP can win them over because of it (Politico).

“If Democrats can’t win in Nevada, we can complain about the white working class all you want, but we’re really confronting a much broader working class problem,” a national Democratic pollster told Politico. “We’re struggling with them, regardless of race.”

▪ The Hill: Latinos break overwhelmingly for Democrats in Nevada Senate, governor’s races, poll shows.

▪ The New York Times: Cortez Masto, the Senate’s most at-risk Democrat, fights to hang on in Nevada.

▪ Roll Call: Laxalt questions why Biden isn’t in Nevada for Cortez Masto.

▪ NBC News: In Nevada, national Republicans exude optimism over Senate takeover: “People are fed up.”

▪ Axios: Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan on Wednesday granted a stay to temporarily block a Jan. 6 House committee’s subpoena for an Arizona GOP leader’s phone records. 

Arizona is one state in which Democrats claim success in holding the Latino vote, pointing to grassroots outreach ahead of and then during election years. Latino voters aren’t monolithic, and vote differently depending on age, religion, gender and cultural background. But in Arizona, which has long been considered a Republican stronghold, regular and community-focused outreach is helping Democrats spread their message (The New Republic).

“There’s been active participation in terms of voter registration, political activation, people really understanding how to talk to the community here, how to get them out,” said Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). “And I think that has made the biggest difference why you don’t see the slide that’s happening in other states.” Gallego is mulling a 2024 primary challenge against Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D).

From castration to communists, from election fraud to the great replacement, from “animals” and doctored photos to partial-birth abortion, Spanish-language disinformation percolating ahead of the midterm elections is seeking to cast doubt on the validity of the U.S. voting process, write The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch and Rafael Bernal, while pushing a number of false narratives from fringe conservative media.

Axios and The Seattle Times: Facebook parent company Meta faces a $24.7 million fine for campaign finance violations in Washington state.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL

Russia warned the West on Thursday that commercial satellites from the United States and its allies could become legitimate targets if they were involved in the war in Ukraine. A senior foreign ministry official told the United Nations that Western nations were trying to use space to enforce their dominance (Reuters). 

The comments are the latest in Russian disinformation efforts, leading back to false claims about the need to stamp out Nazism in Ukraine made even before Russia’s February invasion. But now the Kremlin is switching tactics, instead arguing it is battling terrorism in the country and falsely accusing Ukraine of planning a dirty bomb attack (The New York Times).

“They seem to have decided on a talking point that this is a counterterrorism operation now,” Kyle Walter, who leads the U.S. investigation team at Logically, told the Times.

Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks has repeated the unfounded allegation, which Western and Ukrainian officials have dismissed as a “pretext for aggression” (Reuters and CNBC).

“We’re concerned,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News. “Russia has a track record of projecting, which is to say accusing others of doing something that they themselves have done or are thinking about doing. But there, again, we’ve communicated very clearly and very directly to the Russians about trying to use this false allegation as a pretext for any kind of escalation on Russia’s behalf.”

▪ The New York Times: Putin repeats unfounded accusations that Ukraine was planning to detonate a bomb designed to spread radioactive material. Washington warned that Moscow could be trying to create a pretext for its own attack and has labeled Russia’s assertions as disinformation.

▪ Reuters: An abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine.

▪ The New York Times: War in Ukraine likely to speed, not slow, shift to clean energy, IEA says.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has postponed the presentation of a promised new budget plan until mid-November. 

Sunak, who took office Tuesday, inherited an economy facing recession at a time when interest rates are being raised to tame double-digit inflation, while low growth and rising borrowing costs have worsened the strain on public finances. 

“I have been honest,” Sunak told parliament Wednesday. “We will have to take difficult decisions to restore economic stability and confidence” (Reuters).

At least 15 people were killed Wednesday in Iran in an attack on a Shi’ite Muslim shrine in Shiraz, according to state news agency IRNA, while security forces elsewhere clashed with protesters marking 40 days since the death of Mahsa Amini.

Amini, 22, died after being arrested by the country’s morality police for improper dress. Her death sparked widespread anti-government protests across Iran that have been met with harsh crackdowns (Reuters).

The New York Times: Thousands in Iran mourn Mahsa Amini, whose death set off protests.

After Saudi Arabian leaders pushed to slash oil production despite a visit from Biden, U.S. officials have been left fuming that they were duped, The New York Times reports. 

OPINION

■ No, Latinos aren’t abandoning the Democratic Party, by Dana Milbank, columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3TGwiQb 

■ Indians have good reason to celebrate Rishi Sunak, by Mihir Sharma, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3Dcu6cn 

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 YOU’RE INVITED: Have a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights? The Hill has launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE. 

The House meets at 10 a.m. on Friday for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14. ​​

The Senate convenes at noon for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14. 

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. Biden will ​travel to Syracuse, N.Y., to speak at 3:30 p.m. at Micron’s plant about the U.S. manufacture of semiconductor chips, aided by the recently enacted CHIPS Act. He will fly to his home in New Castle, Del., departing Syracuse at 5:15 p.m.

Vice President Harris is in Washington and has no public events scheduled.

Blinken will be in Canada today and Friday. He is in Ottawa to meet with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at 5:05 p.m. and with Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly earlier in the day. He will have dinner with Trudeau and Joly at 6 p.m. Blinken plans to visit a community center that helps Ukrainian refugees, accompanying Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Joly at 11:30 a.m. The secretary and Joly plan a joint press conference at 2:35 p.m. While in Ottawa, the secretary also will meet with African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki at 4:15 p.m.

Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra will travel to Mercedes, Texas, to visit Texas Tropical Behavioral Health Center to lead a roundtable discussion at 9:30 a.m. CT about federal investments in mental health in the Rio Grande Valley. The secretary will visit Nuestra Clinica del Valle at 11:30 a.m. CT for a roundtable with Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) about the Inflation Reduction Act and healthcare savings for seniors.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will fly to Cleveland and join Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) for a roundtable discussion with manufacturers and a tour of the new headquarters of the Manufacturing Advocacy and Growth Network. Yellen will speak about Biden’s economic agenda at 11:20 a.m. The secretary will have lunch with local elected officials and meet with local business leaders at the Greater Cleveland Partnership. 

Economic indicator: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report at 8:30 a.m. on U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter. Also at 8:30 a.m., the Labor Department reports on filings for unemployment benefits in the week ending Oct. 22.

ELSEWHERE

➤ ECONOMY 

Analysts this morning await the government’s report on gross domestic product in the third quarter, expecting to see growth instead of the contraction that appeared during the first two quarters of this year (Quartz). The favorable numbers may be timely ahead of the midterm contests, but economists warn that the report could be a one-hit wonder that overstates momentum in a U.S. economy that is slowing (CNN).

Amid high prices, rising mortgage rates and downbeat forecasts of higher unemployment and recession, most Americans didn’t notice the months of robust growth (The Washington Post). 

“Is the economy out of the woods? No,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America and former Trump White House economic adviser, wrote in a recent note to clients reported by the Post. “The economy frequently generates healthy gains in real GDP around the onset of recession. Indeed, this has happened in four out of the last six downturns.”

On Wednesday, Biden said he wants to help cash-strapped Americans by forcing the elimination of billions of dollars a year in “junk” fees charged by businesses for goods and services including bank overdrafts, airline and hotel booking fees and cable selections. He said such hidden fees are too high and “unfair” to consumers (The Hill).

The independent government arm tackling the project, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is under fire in the courts and has been a long-running target for criticism among big banks and conservatives in Congress.

Economists have examined various GOP proposals aimed at taming inflation but few believe Republican ideas to cut taxes would help. Conservatives have told voters they want to reduce government spending and make permanent parts of the 2017 Republican tax reductions that are set to expire over the next three years — including incentives for corporate investment and lower taxes for individual filers. They want to repeal corporate tax increases enacted in August while also gutting new enforcement funding for the Internal Revenue Service (The New York Times).  

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

Administration officials worry pandemic exhaustion could lead to a bad COVID-19 winter, as temperatures drop and people increasingly spend more time indoors. Projections show that tens of thousands of Americans could die needlessly this winter if they don’t get free coronavirus vaccine shots or treatments, leading the White House to develop a “fall playbook” to proactively combat a potential surge.

The administration plans on enlisting Walgreens, DoorDash and Uber to provide free delivery of antiviral prescriptions, and will focus on convincing vulnerable Americans, including seniors, to get vaccinations and booster shots (The Washington Post).

“As a country … we have a choice to make,” Biden said, before rolling up his left shirt sleeve to get a COVID-19 booster shot Tuesday. “We have a much better winter, if we use all the tools we have available to us now.”

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

▪ Bloomberg News: New COVID-19 boosters aren’t better than old ones, researchers at Columbia University and the University of Michigan find.

▪ The Washington Post: For those still trying to duck COVID-19, the isolation is worse than ever.

The Hill’s Chia-Yi Hou unpacks everything you need to know about respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) symptoms and transmission as cases rise. Positivity rate for testing has been around 10 to 15 percent in recent weeks, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While adults with RSV can have symptoms of the common cold, babies and young children can develop more serious illnesses including pneumonia. 

RSV can survive on hard surfaces, such as tables and railings, for many hours and for shorter periods of time on surfaces such as tissues and skin. Families should take note that touching surfaces can lead to transfer of the virus. “If they’re touching their nose and touch a surface and somebody comes and touches that surface, and then their nose or eyes, they might get it if they’re not immune to it,” said pediatric infectious disease specialist Benoosh Afghani at the University of California Irvine. 

“This year we are seeing a lot of RSV already and I don’t think we have peaked yet,” Afghani added. “I think in the next few weeks we’re going to see a peak.”

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,069,449. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,566 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

The World Health Organization today updated its COVID-19 data, reporting that new cases dropped by 15 percent in the week ending Oct. 23, with more than 2.6 million new cases of coronavirus infections reported worldwide. The number of new deaths decreased by 13 percent as compared to the previous week, with more than 8,500 fatalities reported and tied to the virus. In total as of Oct. 23, countries have reported 624 million cases of COVID-19 infection and more than 6.5 million deaths globally. The number of infections is likely much higher because of testing and self-reporting challenges.

THE CLOSER

Take Our Morning Report Quiz

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! Inspired by the rise of yet another British head of government this week, we’re eager for some smart guesses about U.K. prime ministers past and present. 

Email your responses to asimendinger@thehill.com and/or kkarisch@thehill.com, and please add “Quiz” to subject lines. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

Who was the youngest prime minister to assume office in Britain?

1. Rishi Sunak

2. Liz Truss

3. The Duke of Grafton

4. William Pitt the Younger

Which monarch holds the record for most prime ministers serving during her/his reign? 

1. Queen Victoria

2. Queen Elizabeth II 

3. King George III

4. King George V

Which British prime minister served the longest?

1. Winston Churchill

2. Benjamin Disraeli

3. Robert Walpole

4. Robert Peel

To officially begin as head of government, U.K. prime ministers must ___?

1. Be welcomed by the monarch

2. Address both houses of parliament

3. Send a letter to Buckingham Palace

4. Ring the doorbell at 10 Downing Street

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

Source: TEST FEED1

Progressive push to end Ukraine war risks backlash

A push by 30 House progressives led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) to establish a cease-fire in Ukraine risks a backlash against Democratic candidates running in states with substantial Ukrainian American populations, Democratic strategists are warning.  

Jayapal and liberal colleagues including Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), Ilhan Omar (R-Minn.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) swiftly retracted the letter but damage may have been already been done, according to veteran Democrats such as James Carville.

“We do congenitally stupid things,” famed Democratic strategist Carville said of the effort by progressive Democrats to push President Biden to seek a cease-fire in Ukraine at a time when many experts believe Ukraine is doing a good job beating back the Russian invasion.

“We got people in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin” running for Senate and House seats, Carville noted. “There are huge Eastern European and Ukrainian voters in the Midwest and we had this unbelievable issue and then 30 of these — I don’t know who came up with this idea. Of course, now they’re trying to backtrack it.” 

“I don’t know, it’s really, really depressing,” Carville added.  

In addition to the toss-up Senate races in the three states, there are also a bunch of competitive House races in those states. The non-partisan Cook Political Report rates two House seats in Ohio and three House seats in Pennsylvania as toss-ups.  

Ohio and Pennsylvania in particular have large populations of Ukrainian American voters, strategists in both parties say.  

A Senate Democratic strategist pointed out that Eastern European and Ukrainian voters are important to winning counties in Northeastern Ohio.  

The source said voters in that part of the state had shifted away from Republicans recently because of eroding Republican support for the war in Ukraine, which was reflected by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) vow that Republicans will not write a “blank check” for Ukraine if they win the House majority.  

“Ukrainians in Ohio and more importantly the Poles in Ohio understand that when [Ohio Senate Republican candidate] J.D. Vance says I don’t care about what happens in Ukraine that’s against everything that made them ‘Reagan Democrats,’” said the Democratic adviser.  

Vance, who is leading Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio), the Democratic candidate, by only a few points in the Ohio Senate race, got into trouble with Ukrainian American voters after admitting in a podcast interview earlier this year: “I gotta be honest with you. I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.”  

But now Democrats are on defense after Jayapal and 29 of her liberal colleagues asked Biden to bring the war to a speedy end, which would likely leave large swaths of Ukrainian territory in Russian hands.  

Russian President Vladimir Putin has illegally annexed four regions of Ukraine — the areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — and is expected to insist on keeping most of his territorial gains as part of any cease-fire or peace deal.  

Jayapal and her colleagues quickly retracted their letter to Biden after being met with a storm of criticism from fellow Democrats, but Democratic strategists worry about the lingering effect on Senate and House races.  

Jayapal admitted the letter “created the unfortunate appearance” that Democrats were “somehow aligned with Republicans who seek to pull the plug on American support for President Zelensky and Ukrainian forces.”  

Ryan, who faces a tough road to victory in Ohio, a state that former President Trump won in 2016 and 2020, needs to win over working-class voters of Ukrainian and Eastern European origin who live along the Eastern edge of the state who swung to Trump in the last two presidential elections.  

“Ethnic voters in Ohio play an outsized role, especially in areas where Trump built his coalition,” said Matt Dole, an Ohio-based Republican strategist. “From Cleveland down through Youngstown there’s the old Steel Belt where there were a lot of Reagan Democrats, Blue Dog Democrats and a lot of them were Polish, Ukrainian and Eastern European.  

“Those folks are still active voters and they have come into the Trump coalition,” he added. “They know Tim Ryan and Tim Ryan is counting on them to cross over and vote for him as a Youngstown guy. They could play a role in the race.”  

Dole said the debate over continued support for the war in Ukraine may play an outsized role in the election.  

Ryan has represented the old industrial town of Youngstown for nearly 20 years in Congress. His district also includes Akron, a rubber and tire manufacturing hub.  

He called on colleagues to continue supporting Ukraine last month when he voted for a short-term funding measure that provided $12.3 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine.  

“Ukraine can and will win this war with the support of the United States and our allies, and we need to make sure they have the necessary weapons and equipment to drive Russia out completely and defend freedom,” he said.  

His opponent, Vance, has since backed away from his statement that he doesn’t care about the fate of Ukraine, declaring “we want the Ukrainians to be successful.”  

Pennsylvania is another midterm battleground where Ukrainian American voters could prove decisive in a close race, such as the bruising contest between John Fetterman, the lieutenant governor, and celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz. 

Pennsylvania has the second largest Ukrainian population of any state in the country with more than 120,000 people of Ukrainian heritage, trailing only New York. Ohio ranks number five among states.  

Many Pennsylvanians of Ukrainian heritage live in small towns in Schuylkill County, in the eastern part of the state.  

Terry Madonna, a senior fellow for political affairs at Millersville University and who previously served as the director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll, said signs that liberal Democratic support for the war in Ukraine is eroding could hurt Fetterman.  

“I think it would,” he said. “That would be difficult for either candidate to oppose American support for Ukraine.”  

He said the townships with large percentages of Ukrainian American residents are “small, rural townships” that have tended to be more Republican than Democratic in recent elections.  

He said most “working class voters” in those areas “historically were Democrats but in recent years have voted Republican.” 

Justin Buchler, a professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, said there’s not much data that breaks down the ethnicity of voters around Ohio so it’s hard to know for sure how the debate over Ukraine may play out in the Senate and House races.  

“We don’t have numbers on ethnicity down to that level of granularity,” he said. 

He agreed that “we’re seeing some cracks within the Democratic Party on Ukraine,” pointing to Jayapal’s letter.  

“Whether or not it’s damaging to the Democratic Party nationwide or in Ohio or Pennsylvania, foreign policy does not tend to swing elections,” he said. “Most voters probably couldn’t point to Ukraine on a map. 

“It’s certainly not helpful to the Democratic Party to see divisions within the party going into a midterm,” he added.  

Source: TEST FEED1

How the parties have realigned on immigration

To anyone familiar with partisan politics in 2022, the immigration battles of 20 or even 10 years ago look like something from another universe.  

In 2007, leftist Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont joined 15 Democrats in blocking a bill from a Republican president that would have provided legal status to millions of undocumented immigrants. 

In 2013, 14 Senate Republicans backed a bill from a Democratic president that would have granted citizenship to millions of undocumented immigrants. That measure died in the House. 

Today, Democrats and Republicans could not stand farther apart on immigration. In 2022 Gallup polls, 86 percent of Republicans said they were worried about illegal immigration, compared to 38 percent of Democrats. For many Republicans heading to the polls this fall, the border looms as an unprecedented national crisis.   

In 2001, by contrast, Democrat and Republican views on immigration were more aligned. That year, illegal immigration worried 56 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Republicans. At the time, few in either party worried about immigrants all that much. 

“It’s really only in the last decade that immigration has been viewed as a number-one issue facing the country by, really, anyone,” said Justin Gest, associate professor of policy and government at George Mason University. 

Today, immigration touches a cultural nerve with both parties. Yet, not long ago, the immigration debate was mostly about economics. Pro-labor Democrats feared undocumented immigrants might steal jobs and undercut salaries for Americans. Pro-business Republicans embraced immigrants for their ability to fill low-wage jobs. A parade of Republican presidents and candidates, from Ronald Reagan to George W. Bush to John McCain, ran on pro-immigration platforms.  

Political scientists say we may never see their like again. 

“It’s very hard to imagine what a pro-immigrant Republican would look like, and how they’d position themselves in their party,” said Michael Jones-Correa, the president’s distinguished professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania.  

Immigration emerged as a top-drawer issue for many Republicans with the 2016 election of President Trump, who promised to build a wall between the United States and Mexico to halt illegal crossings for good. 

“Trump sort of ratcheted up the rhetoric against immigration in a way that hadn’t been previously seen,” said Gest, author of the 2022 book ”Majority Minority.” 

Six years later, the border wall remains incomplete and illegal crossings stand at an all-time high. Border agents tracked 2.8 million illegal entries in the fiscal year that ended in September, breaking the previous record by more than 1 million. Agents detained travelers from across the globe, many fleeing unstable economies in Central and South America and beyond.  

Republicans accuse the Biden administration of tacitly encouraging illegal immigration by slackening Trump-era restrictions, admitting unaccompanied children and emboldening thwarted crossers to try again and again.  

Laura Ries, director of the Border Security and Immigration Center at the Heritage Foundation, likens current policy to “a catch-and-release program.”  

This year, Republican governors in border states have bused thousands of migrants to New York, Washington, D.C., and other Democrat-led cities in ironic protest. 

Republicans “draw the line at legal versus illegal immigration,” Ries said, supporting one and opposing the other. “But these days, that line is blurred or even erased by the other side.” 

Democrats accuse Republicans of fighting all immigration. Anti-immigrant sentiment has swept the globe in recent years, driven by rising tides of migration and embraced by conservative political parties.   

“The wall was a symbol,” said Douglas Rivlin of America’s Voice, a nonprofit that advocates for immigrant rights. “It would have saved us a lot of money if we had just erected a statue of a middle finger and pointed it at Mexico. And it would have had the same effect on illegal immigration.” 

Paradoxically, given the current climate among conservatives, overall American support for immigration runs high. The share of Americans who believe immigration is good for the country reached 77 percent in 2020, the last year of the Trump presidency, up from 57 percent in 2010. It dipped to 70 percent in 2022. 

The national goodwill toward immigrants reflects near-unanimous support among Democrats, many of whom now associate anti-immigrant sentiment with xenophobia or worse. Yet, in the latest Gallup poll on the subject, 46 percent of Republicans agreed with the Democrats that immigration is a net positive. 

“People really do have a romantic view of immigration,” Rivlin said, “and sometimes a cartoonishly negative impression of immigrants.” 

Modern immigration policy begins with the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, which set a national priority of allowing legal immigration primarily to reunite splintered families, with lower quotas for immigrants seeking employment and political refuge.  

It also ends there. The antiquated immigration system “hasn’t really been revisited in 60 or 70 years,” Jones-Correa said. “And part of the reason it hasn’t been revisited is because of the increasing divide between the two parties.” 

The 1965 act set a framework for legal immigration. Two decades later, Reagan collaborated with a Democratic Congress to address illegal immigration with the landmark Immigration Reform and Control Act in 1986. The agreement satisfied pro-business Republicans and pro-labor Democrats with a carrot-and-stick approach, allowing amnesty for the undocumented while expanding border patrols and penalties for new arrivals.  

“It wasn’t so much about politics back then,” said Ries of the Heritage Foundation. “You weren’t seeing caravans back then. It wasn’t leading to border crises. And so, you would get politicians who would fall on one side or the other of the issue based on the merits.” 

Reagan’s reforms saw a major overhaul in 1996, when former President Clinton, a Democrat, signed legislation that was mostly stick, cracking down on undocumented immigrants who commit crimes or stay too long, and targeting smugglers.  

George W. Bush attempted immigration reform in 2006 and 2007. Former President Obama tried again in 2012 and 2013. Both efforts failed. 

Throughout that era, “immigration was largely a centrist issue that brought together moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats,” Gest said. “And it was a matter of, could you convince enough people on the left and right flank to pass laws.” 

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, worked with Bush on the 2007 reform, but only 11 Republicans joined him in the final vote.  

Fourteen Senate Republicans, including Graham and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and every Democrat supported Obama in his 2013 immigration reform. That measure died in the House. 

The anti-immigrant rhetoric that fueled the Trump campaign ignited during the Obama years, part of a broader conservative movement that branded Democrats as hopelessly soft on the border.  

From a conservative perspective, Ries said, Democrats bailed on meaningful immigration reform when they “came to view immigrants as potential voters.”  

The message that Democrats had failed on immigration spread along with the migrants, who had fanned out from border states and immigrant hubs to settle across small-town America starting in the 1990s, catapulting immigration from a regional issue into a national one.  

“I’m walking into my grocery store, and people aren’t speaking English, and it’s not the country I recognize,” Jones-Correa said. “Republican representatives begin listening to their constituents and going, ‘Yeah, this is an issue.’” 

This fall, many Republican candidates are targeting what they perceive as the Biden administration’s immigration missteps on the campaign trail.  

But anti-immigrant politics can exact a price. In 1994, Pete Wilson, then the Republican governor of California, campaigned on Proposition 187, a ballot initiative to bar undocumented immigrants from state services. The measure passed, but the resulting backlash drove Republicans from favor in California.  

Pro-immigrant sentiment also factored in Trump’s defeat at the polls in 2020.  

“Here we are in 2022, and they’re doubling down on the same strategy,” Rivlin said of the Republican effort. “And I think the question is, Does it mobilize the base? Probably. And then you go back to that Pete Wilson example.” 

Source: TEST FEED1