Categories Uncategorized

Progressives urge Biden to push harder for Ukraine peace talks

Thirty progressive House lawmakers wrote a letter to President Biden on Monday urging him to consider directly engaging with Russia and to become more assertive in negotiating a cease-fire in Ukraine.

Led by Congressional Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the Democrats asked Biden to advocate harder for peace, noting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats of nuclear warfare and the billions of taxpayer dollars spent on the conflict.

“Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of catastrophic escalation, we also believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States and the world to avoid a prolonged conflict,” the lawmakers wrote.

“For this reason, we urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire,” the letter continued.

The signatories included progressives in the House Democratic Caucus such as Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), Cori Bush (Mo.), Jamaal Bowman (N.Y.) and Mark Pocan (Wis.).

All 30 signatories have voted for more than $50 billion in various forms of assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion and in the letter expressed no regrets for doing so, tying the aid to Ukrainian military successes.

But the letter, which is supported by a coalition of progressive and anti-war advocacy groups, urged a more aggressive U.S. role in ending the conflict after Russia moved to annex four Ukrainian regions and began to take aim at the country’s energy infrastructure.

The Hill has reached out to the White House for comment.

Biden has vowed a principle of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” meaning he will not pressure the Ukrainian government to make any concession to Russia in a potential settlement.

The lawmakers indicated they agree with that premise while arguing a U.S.-negotiated agreement should still be on the table, suggesting it would presumably include incentives to end the fighting, sanctions relief and security guarantees for Ukraine.

“We are under no illusions regarding the difficulties involved in engaging Russia given its outrageous and illegal invasion of Ukraine and its decision to make additional illegal annexations of Ukrainian territory,” they wrote. “However, if there is a way to end the war while preserving a free and independent Ukraine, it is America’s responsibility to pursue every diplomatic avenue to support such a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine.”

Outside advocates have taken particular aim at Biden saying earlier this month that he has “no intention” of meeting with Putin at next month’s Group of 20 (G-20) summit, which will take place in Bali, Indonesia, saying he should sit down with the Russian leader face to face. 

Although he poured cold water on the idea of such an encounter, Biden did leave the door open to a meeting, however.

“For example, if he came to me at the G-20 and said, ‘I want to talk about the release of Griner,’ I’d meet with him. I mean, it would depend,” Biden said, referencing WNBA star Brittney Griner, who has been imprisoned in Russia since February.

While the Democrats noted Ukraine’s recent military successes, the letter illustrated growing pressure from lawmakers in both parties to see results after approving tens of billions of dollars in funding to boost Ukraine amid its defensive efforts.

House Republicans have signaled a desire to curb funding if they retake the majority in the November election, and Biden has acknowledged he’s concerned about the fate of Ukraine aid if that happens.

Source: TEST FEED1

DOJ charges 13 in cases targeting Chinese spy and influence campaigns

The Department of Justice (DOJ) on Monday announced charges against 10 alleged Chinese government spies and three other Chinese nationals in three separate cases, including a matter in which two intelligence officers sought to recruit a U.S. double agent in order to damage prosecution of tech company Huawei.

The sprawling activity described by DOJ includes several different plots, and is part of a pressure campaign on U.S.-based Chinese citizens who have been critical of the Chinese Communist Party.

The announcement, led by Attorney General Merrick Garland, comes as the U.S. continues its 2019 case against Huawei, which was expanded in 2020 to include racketeering and intellectual property theft in addition to bank fraud.

“The defendants believed that they had recruited the U.S. employee as an asset, but in fact, the individual they recruited was actually a double agent, working on behalf of the FBI,” Garland said on Monday.

At one point, two alleged Chinese spies, Guochun He and Zheng Wang, paid the agent more than $60,000 in bitcoin for what was actually bogus information about DOJ’s prosecution. The two men are still at large.

“[They] did so in the hope of obtaining the prosecution strategy memo, confidential information regarding witnesses, trial evidence, and potential new charges to be brought against the company,” Garland said.

“This was an egregious attempt by PRC intelligence officers to shield a PRC-based company from accountability and to undermine the integrity of our judicial system,” he continued, using an abbreviation for China’s formal name, the People’s Republic of China.

—Updated at 2:46 p.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

Fears of US ‘twindemic’ of flu, RSV grow with or without COVID-19

Fears of a U.S. “twindemic” are growing as the nation deals with children’s hospitals crowded with cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) just as the number of people with the flu also rise across the country.

Experts have been talking about a “twindemic” in connection with a simultaneous surge in COVID-19 and flu cases. The worry was that winter waves of COVID would coincide with the regular flu season, and that the combination could pose a threat to health systems.  

Thankfully, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have leveled off in the United States — although that could change as temperatures drop and people move indoors. If that happens, even more pressure could be placed on hospitals.

COVID cases are on the rise in some parts of the country, signaled by wastewater surveillance, suggesting that we could potentially be on the verge of a “tripledemic.”

The Centers for Disease and Prevention has said that cases of RSV are rising in multiple regions of the country, while the nation’s children’s hospitals have reported being overwhelmed with RSV.

The rising number of cases has set off alarm bells for parents worried about hospital space.

“The Seattle Children’s Emergency Department (ED) continues to see record volumes in pediatric patients in October,” Tony Woodward, medical director of emergency medicine at Seattle Children’s Hospital, said in a statement obtained by Changing America.

“Currently, the month of October has demonstrated volumes that are usually only seen around the mid-winter season, when they are typically at their highest of the year due to viruses.” 

RSV normally starts appearing in late November with its regular season running until April.  

Infectious disease specialist Diego Hijano at St. Jude in Memphis told Joseph Choi of The Hill that they are currently seeing equal cases of COVID, flu and RSV. 

A big factor this winter season is the fact that for millions, COVID-19 protections have gone out the window.

Fewer people are wearing masks or social distancing today than a year ago. That could cause complications if COVID-19 does come back hard again this winter.

A COVID and flu twindemic didn’t seem to happen the past two COVID winters, likely because people followed public health guidelines by staying away from large gatherings and wore face masks.

There was also a general worldwide drop in the prevalence of flu and other respiratory illnesses as people around the world stayed inside and there was limited international travel.

Now, people are traveling again and generally being less cautious.

President Biden declared COVID-19 to be over in September, a statement his own health team pushed back upon.

The risk to many people who get COVID-19 may be less given the prevalence of vaccinations, which make serious cases much less likely.

Yet there are concerns here too because of vaccine hesitance in the United States.

According to Our World in Data, 80 percent of the U.S. population has had at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, though only 68 percent of the nation’s population is fully vaccinated, according to data kept by The New York Times.

A much smaller portion of the U.S. public — 34 percent — has been boosted.

Those are the figures that are making experts worried that the nation could see a jump in cases later this year.

Europe often gives a preview of what to watch for in the United States when it comes to COVID-19 tends, and cases are rising on that continent. The emergence of new omicron subvariants is another worry.

The fact that people are traveling around again was expected to increase rates of the flu this year, and the signs of rising cases are widely apparent.

This year saw a big flu season in the Southern Hemisphere, when winter is from June through August. Experts typically watch what happens in Australia’s flu season to get a sense for what may happen in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Flu cases are rising earlier this flu season in the U.S. than typically expected, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Flu is also rising early in the U.K. and other countries. 

The CDC and other health groups are advising people to get boosted for COVID-19, and to get the annual flu shot to provide protection from that seasonal sickness.

“The best thing parents can do to keep their kids and themselves healthy and safe are to keep doing all their good handwashing and precautions we’ve learned over the last couple years when people are sick, as well as getting their flu vaccines and bivalent COVID boosters when they are able,” a representative of Doernbecher’s Children’s Hospital at Oregon Health & Science University said in an email.

This story was updated at 1:03 p.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

Justice Thomas agrees to halt Graham testimony in Georgia election probe

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas on Monday granted Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) request to temporarily shield the South Carolina Republican from testifying in probe of alleged pro-Trump election interference in Georgia.

The move comes after Graham on Friday filed an emergency request to Thomas, who handles matters arising from Georgia, and follows a ruling by a lower appeals court declining to halt Graham’s testimony before a Fulton County, Ga., special grand jury.

The court this weekend requested a response from Fulton County, which is due on Thursday, so it is likely the Supreme Court will act again in the case soon. Thomas has the option to handle the application himself or refer the matter to the full court.

In court papers filed Friday, Graham urged the court to find that constitutional protections for lawmakers should shield him from being forced to comply with a subpoena issued by District Attorney Fani Willis (D).

Graham’s emergency application came after the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit last week said that questioning of Graham, within certain limits, could proceed. 

Willis has expressed interest in phone calls between Graham and Georgia election officials following the 2020 election. Graham contends those calls related to fact-finding for his own vote on certifying of the 2020 election, and that forcing him to answer questions would violate the Constitution’s “speech or debate” clause.

“Without a stay, Senator Lindsey Graham will soon be questioned by a local Georgia prosecutor and her ad hoc investigative body about his protected ‘Speech or Debate’ related to the 2020 election,” Graham’s lawyers wrote. “This will occur despite the Constitution’s command that Senators ‘shall not be questioned’ about ‘any Speech or Debate.’”

Updated at 12:58 p.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

Biden acknowledges his age is a 'legitimate' voter concern

President Biden in an interview that aired Sunday said it’s a “legitimate thing” for voters to be concerned about his age, but argued they should judge him on his energy and passion for the job.

“I think it’s a legitimate thing to be concerned about anyone’s age, including mine. I think that’s totally legitimate,” Biden, who is 79, told MSNBC’s Jonathan Capehart.

“But I think the best way to make the judgment is to watch me,” he continued. “I’m a great respecter of fate. I could get a disease tomorrow. I could drop dead tomorrow. In terms of my energy level. In terms of how much I’m able to do, I think people should look and say, ‘Does he still have the same passion for what he’s doing?’ And if they think I do and I can do it, that’s fine. If they don’t, they should … encourage me not to go. But that’s not how I feel.”

Biden was the oldest president ever to take office when he was sworn in at age 78. He will turn 80 on Nov. 20, an age he joked to Capehart he couldn’t bring himself to say.

When asked about his age, Biden often points to his daily schedule and regular travel domestically and internationally to argue he can keep up with the demands of the job.

The president’s age has been a point of contention since he first announced his candidacy for the 2020 election, with Republicans attacking his mental fitness for the job and some Democrats arguing it was time for a new generation of leadership.

Republicans have seized on Biden’s occasional gaffes to argue he is too old and has lost a step, such as when he called out to recognize a former congresswoman at a White House event even though she had died weeks earlier.

The age question has also persisted for Biden among Democrats as polls have shown voters might prefer another candidate in 2024.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll in late September found that 56 percent of Democrats want the party to choose a different nominee for president in 2024, while 35 percent said they wanted Biden to seek a second term.

The president has repeatedly said he intends to run again, though he has not formally declared his intentions for 2024.

Source: TEST FEED1

The Hill's Morning Report — Biden hits campaign trail amid GOP momentum

Just 15 days remain until the midterm elections on Nov. 8, and the last two weeks are shaping up to be a nail-biter.

While early voting — already underway in states such as Georgia, Florida and North Carolina — is drawing voters in record numbers and may give an indication of turnout, pollsters and election forecasters still predict tight races up and down the ballots, with no clear sign of victory for either party (The New York Times and The Guardian).

A Sunday NBC News poll shows Democrats with a slim 1-point lead on a generic congressional ballot. According to the poll, 47 percent of Americans back a Democrat-controlled Congress while 46 percent say they would like to see Republicans in charge.

Last week, a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey showed Republicans leading Democrats 53 percent to 47 percent, while other polls show a previously wider lead by Democrats shrinking to just one point (The Hill).

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, on Sunday told ABC’s “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl that people have been “writing us off for two years” while the party worked to pass gun control legislation, expanded healthcare for veterans and pushed through the historic Inflation Reduction Act.

“We’ve got a record of progress, and we’re doing a lot better than people thought we would,” Maloney said. “And we are in a very competitive election. We know it’s going to be a challenge.”

What Maloney didn’t have an answer to is whether he thinks President Biden should run again in 2024, saying, “The president will make that decision.” The White House has yet to officially confirm if Biden will run for reelection, though Biden has repeated his intention to run (The Hill).

But Democrats are facing the fears that the momentum they saw earlier this year in their bid to keep control of the Senate is beginning to wane, writes The Hill’s Max Greenwood. Towering inflation and deepening economic unease are overtaking issues such as abortion rights atop the list of voters’ concerns, and Republicans are speaking to those concerns.

▪ Politico: More voters trust Republicans on economy as interest in midterms hits high, polls say.

▪ Roll Call: In 21 House race rating changes, most move toward GOP.

▪ NBC News: Democrats struggle with message on inflation in final midterm push.

The Hill’s Al Weaver has rounded up the seven Senate seats most likely to flip this November, from Wisconsin to Nevada and Georgia.

One race that’s moving into contention for Democrats is the Senate race in North Carolina, where Democrat Cheri Beasley is looking to close the gap with Rep. Ted Budd (R). Reporting from the campaign trail, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton writes that Budd is ahead, but polls show a tight race and political strategists in both parties predict victory and defeat will come down to a few percentage points.

“North Carolina is a true purple state. Thirty percent of our voters are registered Republicans, 34 [percent] are registered as Democrats, 35 percent are registered as unaffiliated voters,” said state Republican Chairman Michael Whatley. “Fifty-two to 48 is a landslide in North Carolina.”

▪ WCNC: North Carolina Senate candidates make their pitch to voters.

▪ ABC News: As early voting begins in North Carolina, abortion and inflation appeals divide the race.

Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) is facing a potential make-or-break moment Tuesday as he squares off with his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz in the candidates’ first and likely only televised debate.

Fetterman has faced repeated questions about his health since suffering a stroke in May, write The Hill’s Julia Manchester and Al Weaver. And recent polls show a tightening race, as Oz has criticized Fetterman about his health, months-long absence from the campaign trail and handling of crime.

A Tuesday AARP Pennsylvania poll showed Fetterman leading Oz 48 percent to 46 percent, putting him within the margin of error, while a Fox 29-InsiderAdvantage poll showed the two tied at 46 percent.

“In the sincere hope that John can really hold himself up to the scrutiny that comes with a high-profile debate, and I think he can,” T.J. Rooney, a former Pennsylvania Democratic Party chairman, told The Hill. “Through video and things he’s done going back to July, he’s in such a much better place today than he was then that I hope that strength is able to be better depicted during the course of the debate.”

Polls suggest to some Democratic analysts that the party’s campaign messages about GOP extremism, abortion laws and fears about the future of American democracy have missed the mark with voters who are deeply worried about rising prices and predictions of hard times just over the horizon for their families and communities.

Democrats’ elation this summer that their majorities might defy midterm history, a backdrop that initially warned them of House and Senate losses for the party in power in the White House, has deflated. Biden’s low job approval and voters’ hand-wringing about record high inflation paint divided government as an attractive choice.

“The closing argument has to be about what matters to the electorate,” said Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of the liberal activist network Our Revolution. “In this moment in particular, voters are looking for the candidates who will fight to raise their standards of living” (The Hill).

Progressives want the party to internalize the “It’s the economy, stupid” lesson in the final two weeks before Election Day, pleading with candidates to narrow their focus, in part because Republican contenders have made gains while blasting Democrats over high gasoline and food prices, crime and immigration.

The Hill: Democrats’ democracy-in-peril argument fizzles as a midterm election issue.

Biden has scattered his campaign messages across issues such as domestic manufacturing of semiconductor chips, infrastructure, future lower-cost prescription drugs negotiated under Medicare, reproductive rights, threats posed by extremists and white supremacists, and climate change. He will be in Syracuse, N.Y., on Thursday to talk about computer chip manufacturing investments by Micron.  

The president has said inflation is a global problem and the No. 1 concern within his administration and that he does not expect a recession.

“A lot of what we’ve done, and we’ve passed, has not kicked in yet,” Biden told journalist Jonathan Capehart during an interview broadcast Friday on MSNBC. “It doesn’t kick in until next year.”

If there’s anything Biden should have internalized from the pandemic, it’s Americans’ impatience. It takes years to implement massive pieces of legislation and while many voters know that Democrats enacted the Inflation Reduction Act during the summer, they also know inflation remains high. Biden’s argument is accurate and also a hard sell.

The president is expected to headline larger campaign rallies in the final week before Nov. 8, hoping that his closing arguments, backed by campaign ads, candidate events and celebrity messaging, including from former President Obama, will prove persuasive in the nick of time. 

In addition to a visit to New York state, Biden this week will participate in virtual campaign receptions for House candidates in Nevada, Iowa and Pennsylvania, and return to Philadelphia on Friday for a Pennsylvania Democratic Party event with Vice President Harris. 

Related Articles

▪ Times of Israel: Biden to MSNBC, during an interview segment broadcast on Sunday: “I could drop dead tomorrow.” The president, who says his good health supports his intention to seek a second term, will be 80 on Nov. 20. 

▪ Axios: Red tsunami: Strategists suggest it’s now very possible House Republicans win back the majority on Nov. 8 with more than 20 House seats.

▪ The Washington Post: Inside the successes, missteps and failures of Biden’s presidency now nearing its two-year mark.

▪ The Hill and The New York Times: If former President Trump opts to comply with a subpoena from the House select committee on Jan. 6, he will not be permitted to turn any testimony into a “circus,” Vice Chairwoman Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) said on Sunday. Trump and his legal team have not said how he will respond to the House subpoena.

▪ The Hill: Voting systems company Dominion: Fox News “knew the truth” that voter fraud claims made by Trump and his associates were untrue, CEO says. 

LEADING THE DAY

➤ CONGRESS 

Elections have consequences, leaders of both parties are fond of saying. If Republicans control the House, the new majority next year wants to pursue its own policies to tame inflation. The Hill describes GOP legislative ideas focused on spending reductions and tax cuts, energy independence, improving the supply chain and turning the nation’s borrowing authority into a force multiplier in combat with Democrats.  

“We will make sure the federal government pays its debts, but we will use the debt ceiling as it was intended — a lever to address our deficit and debt,” said Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.). 

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) once again declined to say if she would run in her caucus to remain as Speaker if Democrats hold the House majority in 2023 (The Hill). 

Questioned on CBS News’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday, she repeated, “I’m not talking about that. I’m here to talk about how we win the election.” 

➤ ADMINISTRATION  

The Biden administration’s student debt forgiveness program was temporarily blocked by a federal appeals court on Friday, but the White House urged borrowers to keep applying for relief that could total up to $20,000 for some individuals.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit issued a stay on the program Friday after an appeal from six Republican attorneys general representing GOP-led states. The ruling came just days after the administration launched the application at StudentAid.gov (The Hill). 

Twenty-two million people had already applied for debt forgiveness as of Friday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre announced, emphasizing that the court’s decision “does not prevent us from reviewing these applications and preparing them for transmission to loan servicers.”

Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona pledged Saturday to keep “moving full speed ahead” on plans to implement the program (CNN).

“Amid some Republicans trying every which way to block the Biden administration’s debt relief program, the department is moving full speed ahead to deliver relief to borrowers who need the help,” Cardona wrote in a USA Today op-ed.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL

Russia fired missiles and drones into Ukrainian-held territory over the weekend, continuing an intense campaign to damage Ukraine’s energy supplies as Russian forces attacked targets along the length of the front line.

Winter weather is closing in as the two countries remain locked in heavy exchanges of fire and both sides make urgent attempts at gains. Experts see Russia’s increasing attacks as part of an attempt to stretch Ukraine’s defense abilities and resources (The New York Times).

Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, on Sunday warned his French counterpart that the war is rapidly deteriorating and heading toward “uncontrolled escalation” (Reuters). 

The foreign ministers in France, the United Kingdom and the United States on Sunday issued a collective statement reiterating “steadfast support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression… for as long as it takes.” The three allied nations rejected “Russia’s transparently false allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory” (The Hill).

Two people were killed Sunday when a Russian military plane crashed into a two-story apartment block in the Siberian city of Irkutsk, according to the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry. It marks the second time in a week that a military plane has hit a Russian residential building (The Washington Post).

The New York Times: With an intense, hastily assembled effort, the Ukrainian military is pioneering successful techniques in the difficult art of anti-drone warfare.

Cyberattacks are increasingly a key part of modern warfare, but NATO’s treaty that says an act of war against a NATO member will prompt a response from the full alliance had conventional warfare in mind, writes The Hill’s Ines Kagubare. While several NATO members have recently been hit with cyberattacks, there has been no signal from the organization about when such attacks might ever trigger Article 5.

“Article 5 was written in the days when things were much clearer,” said James Lewis, a senior vice president and director with the strategic technologies program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “We don’t have that clarity with cyberattacks.”

In Italy, Giorgia Meloni was sworn in over the weekend as the country’s new prime minister. Meloni’s government is the first far-right government the country has seen since World War II (The Guardian) and she has been compared by her critics to Benito Mussolini. Biden on Saturday used a brief White House statement to extend congratulations, saying, “Italy is a vital NATO ally and close partner as our nations together address shared global challenges.” 

“As leaders in the G7 [Group of Seven nations], I look forward to continuing to advance our support for Ukraine, hold Russia accountable for its aggression, ensure respect for human rights and democratic values, and build sustainable economic growth,” he wrote.

France 24: European Union chiefs congratulate far-right Meloni as Italy’s prime minister.

China’s Communist Party congress ended over the weekend and as expected President Xi Jinping secured a historic third term in power. Here are the six loyalist leaders hand-picked by Xi to help him run what many in the West now see as a more totalitarian China (The New York Times). A rare senior female delegate who oversaw China’s zero-COVID policy is expected to retire at age 72 (The New York Times). 

“China has entered a new era of maximum Xi,” Neil Thomas, an analyst of Chinese politics for the Eurasia Group, told the Times. The outcome, Thomas added, “means more support for Xi’s policies, which means a stronger focus on political control, economic statism, and assertive diplomacy.”  

During Saturday’s closing ceremony, Hu Jintao, China’s former leader, was unexpectedly led out of the great hall, marking a moment of drama during a typically highly regimented event. On his way out, Hu appeared to pause and say something to Xi (CNN).

▪ The New York Times: China hangs on Xi’s every word. His silence also speaks volumes.

▪ The Washington Post: China’s Communist Party hands Xi an endless rule for flexing power.

▪ The New York Times: China, after a delay, unexpectedly releases economic data.

In the United Kingdom, Brits will have a new prime minister to replace Liz Truss by the end of the week, or perhaps today. Candidate Rishi Sunak, 42, is ahead in the nose-counting this morning for Conservative Party votes with at least 178 backers who have declared their support. Candidate Penny Mordaunt, 49, has 26 as of this writing (BBC). Sunak, a former chancellor of the exchequer, is seen as the likely victor (The New York Times). Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who gained some modest early support to make a return engagement in the top job after Truss’s six weeks at No. 10, announced Sunday that he is not a candidate (CNN). 

If Mordaunt, leader of the House of Commons, fails to reach a threshold of 100 members of Parliament in her corner, Sunak could become the prime minister today. If there are two candidates with at least 100 nominations, a vote happens on Friday (Reuters).

OPINION

■ The Trump Tapes: 20 interviews that show why he is an unparalleled danger, by Bob Woodward, associate editor, The Washington Post (ahead of Woodward’s Simon & Schuster publication of the Trump interviews on Tuesday). https://wapo.st/3Spsu4p 

■ How Cold War II could turn into World War III, by Niall Ferguson, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3Doj6ty

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets at 11 a.m. Tuesday for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14. ​​

The Senate convenes at 1:45 p.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14. 

The president will visit Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington for remarks at 1 p.m. Biden and first lady Jill Biden will plant a tree on the South Lawn. They will host an East Room reception to celebrate India’s Diwali holiday.

The vice president will attend a reception in the East Room for Diwali, India’s festival of lights and biggest holiday of the year.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will speak at 12:40 p.m. at a Department of State luncheon commemorating the 10th anniversary of TechWomen. He will meet at 5 p.m. with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi, who has recently traveled to Ukraine and has spoken with President Vladimir Putin about Russia’s military seizure in Ukraine of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will deliver a keynote address at 11 a.m. at the annual meeting of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association in New York City. 

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff today will join Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison for political events in North Carolina’s Kannapolis at 10 a.m. at the David M. Murdock Research Institute and in Charlotte at 1 p.m. at the North Carolina Democratic Party coordinated campaign headquarters.

The first lady will host an event at 11 a.m. with the American Cancer Society and singer Mary J. Blige to launch the American Cancer Society’s National Roundtables on Breast and Cervical Cancer. The first lady will join the president for his scheduled events on the South Lawn at 2:15 p.m. and in the East Room at 5 p.m. 

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 3 p.m.

ELSEWHERE

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

There’s a respiratory disease surging among children. Here’s what you need to know about respiratory syncytial virus, which is extremely common (The Hill).

COVID-19 and waning immunity changed the “typical” cycle of respiratory infections among children, explained Scott Gottlieb, a former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, speaking Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation” (The Hill).

The New York Times: A “tripledemic”? Flu and other infections return as COVID-19 cases rise.

The president will receive his updated COVID-19 shot on Tuesday and deliver remarks at the White House (The Hill). Biden recovered from COVID-19 in July. He suffered a rebound case after taking Paxlovid after initially testing positive, but his symptoms were mild.

Next year, with an end to currently available federal funding for COVID-19, the cost of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine doses will rise to between $110 and $130, compared with the approximately $30 the company charges the government now. The new price tag should be covered for most people who have health insurance (CNN). For now, COVID-19 vaccines are still available for free. 

Omicron subvariants pose a new threat to people with immune deficiencies, research shows, as new strains of the virus show resistance to the antibody drugs many need for extra protection against COVID-19.

NBC News reports that these subvariants evade AstraZeneca’s Evusheld, the antibody drug authorized to prevent COVID-19 infection, and the sole antibody drug that has retained effectiveness as treatment for the virus, Eli Lilly’s bebtelovimab.

“It scares the hell out of us,” Minneapolis area resident Mimi Razim-FitzSimons told NBC News.

Reuters: Cases of BQ.1, BQ.1.1 COVID-19 variants double in the United States. as Europe warns of a rise.

👉 School vaccine requirements: Some GOP leaders, conservative media figures and Republican political candidates spread false information in recent days about vaccination guidance for school children and their parents released last week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with expert backing. Not one of the 50 states mandates that children be vaccinated for COVID-19 to attend school. None. Zero. The choice is up to parents and pediatricians. The CDC added COVID-19 vaccinations to its schedule of childhood inoculations that are recommended by the government as safe and effective under emergency approval during the pandemic (Politico). Many states use the schedules as guidance for requirements. But the recommendations last week from the CDC’s expert panel do not trigger mandates, and 21 states have passed laws prohibiting COVID-19 vaccine mandates for students. 

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,067,686. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,566 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC altered its tally of available data from daily to weekly, reported on Fridays.)

➤ LABOR

A new U.S. labor movement may be forming. Petitions for union elections rose by half nationwide in the fiscal year that ended in September, with high-profile labor campaigns unfolding at Starbucks, Trader Joe’s, Apple and Chipotle. Union support stands at a generational high: For the first time in years, even Republicans now generally support organized labor (The Hill). 

The Guardian: Lowe’s faces organization effort as US unionization movement spreads.

➤ SPORTS

⚾ Philadelphia Phillies superstar Bryce Harper delivered one of the biggest home runs in franchise history on Sunday and gave the team a 4-3 victory over the San Diego Padres in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series, sending Philadelphia to its first World Series since 2009 (ESPN).

“I didn’t want to get back on that flight back to San Diego. I just didn’t want to get on a 5½-hour flight,” Harper said. “I wanted to hang out at home and enjoy this at home with these fans and this organization and this fan base.”

Also on Sunday, the Houston Astros became the American League champions for the fourth time in the last six years, winning 6-5 against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Houston outscored the Yankees 18-9 in the four games (CBS Sports).

THE CLOSER

And finally … Today, the late actress Anna May Wong breaks a barrier for Asian Americans as the first to appear on U.S. currency, now in circulation as part of a special series. The U.S. Mint is now shipping its fifth in a collection of notable women depicted on quarters. 

Born in Los Angeles as Wong Liu Tsong, Wong began her career in the entertainment industry in the 1920s and worked in movies, TV and theater and forged a path for Chinese Americans, appearing in more than 60 movies, including silent films and one of the first films in Technicolor. Wong also appeared in stage productions in New York and London and later received a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame in 1960. She died at age 56 the next year (CNN).

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

Source: TEST FEED1

Juan Williams: The GOP is embracing Christian nationalism

A recent controversy centered on President Trump is emblematic of a broader trend.

The evidence is piling up that former President Trump, the leading candidate for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, is also the leader of a white, Christian nationalist movement.

Last week, he actively packaged anti-Semitism for Republicans.

America’s “wonderful [Christian] Evangelicals are far more appreciative,” of him than “the people of the Jewish faith, especially those living in the U.S.,” he wrote on social media, before going on to praise Israeli Jews.

Trump also spoke to Kanye West last week and the two planned to go to dinner, according to a report from Politico, which cited “a person familiar with the call.”

West, who now refers to himself as ‘Ye,’ recently threatened to go “death con 3 on Jewish people.”

Trump’s anger at Jewish voters appears related to his 2017 order for the U.S. embassy in Israel to be moved to Jerusalem — and what he sees as insufficient gratitude in return. 

He boasted that “No President has done more for Israel than I have.” Now he holds a grudge that most Jewish voters remain loyal Democrats.

Of course, American Jews and others living in the U.S. might notice that one segment of Christian evangelical support for Israel is based not on some reverence for Judaism itself, but on the idea that Christ will return to life in Israel and usher in the end times.

In a 2017 study, more than 50 percent of American evangelicals said that they supported Israel partly on the basis that the country was “important for fulfilling biblical prophecy.”

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R- Colo.) is also promoting a Trumpian mix of the political and the evangelical. Boebert last week told a GOP dinner in Tennessee that “many of us in this room believe that we are in the last of the last days…you get to be a part of ushering in the second coming of Jesus.”

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is similarly stirring evangelical passions. In February, he declared it was time for his political backers to “put on the full armor of God. Stand firm against the left’s schemes.” 

That was part of a pattern that prompted The Miami Herald to note the disturbing “overlap between Christian nationalism – and its nostalgia for our ‘Anglo-Protestant’ past — and white supremacy.”

But Trump dares to stand behind a candidate with a history of ties to anti-Semitism.

Trump endorsed Doug Mastriano, the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania. It turns out Mastriano’s campaign paid $5000 to a notorious right-wing social media platform, Gab. 

Gab’s founder, Andrew Torba, has “repeatedly made antisemitic remarks and said in one video that neither he nor Mr. Mastriano would give interviews to non-Christian journalists,” according to the New York Times.

Amid controversy, Mastriano said that Torba “doesn’t speak for me or my campaign” and added, “I reject anti-Semitism in any form.”

Trump knows that many of his own supporters embrace the so-called “Great Replacement Theory.” 

They see Jews engineering the replacement of white Christian voters by encouraging an influx of immigrants, specifically Black and Brown people. 

Let’s not forget that while Trump was president there was a spike in racial violence, including violence against Jews.

Robert Bowers, an alleged follower of neo-Nazi and white supremacist websites, is the sole suspect for killing 11 people and wounding six at a Pittsburgh synagogue in 2018. His trial has been set for next year.

Bowers’s chief complaint about Trump was allegedly that he was “a globalist, not a nationalist.”

In 2017, the year before the Pittsburgh attack, Trump famously declared there were “very fine people on both sides” of the Charlottesville white supremacist march that featured chants of “Jews will not replace us.”

One of Trump’s most prominent loyalists, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), posted a bizarre conspiracy theory on social media in 2018 — admittedly, before she was elected to Congress — including the claim that space lasers associated with Jewish financiers may be causing the California wildfires.

The American right’s openness to anti-Semitism is nothing new.

In the 1990s, GOP presidential candidate and conservative writer Pat Buchanan famously declared that Capitol Hill was “Israeli-occupied territory.”

In fairness, some Democrats have flirted with anti-Semitism too.

In 2012, well before she was elected to Congress, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) tweeted that Israel had “hypnotized the world” and was involved in “evil doings.”. 

Omar expressed regret in 2019. But there are no apologies from West or Trump.

And their hateful remarks coincide with a rise in hate crimes against Jewish people. 

The Anti-Defamation League reported more anti-Semitic incidents in 2021 than in any year since the organization began tracking such occurrences in 1979.

Who in the GOP will put a stop to this anti-Semitic hate speech as it steadily morphs into yet more hatred?

Juan Williams is an author, and a political analyst for Fox News Channel.

Source: TEST FEED1

Here’s how a House GOP might tackle inflation

Republicans are expected to take back the House majority in next month’s midterm elections, and they are already signaling steps they would take to try to solve inflation, which is seen as the biggest issue in the November races.

The GOP could have limited power with just the House majority, and even if the party takes back the Senate as well, it is unlikely to have a filibuster-proof majority.

President Biden’s veto pen is another factor, meaning Republicans may need to compromise with the White House and Democrats to enact their policies.

Republicans have given signals about certain areas they intend to focus on, though the specifics of their anti-inflation plans are slim.

Here are a few things the GOP is thinking about doing to counter inflation.

Pull back on spending

Republicans have railed against trillions in Democratic-backed spending in areas like coronavirus relief, student loans and non-defense funding, while framing the policies as part of a pattern of unchecked government spending.

The party has made clear its opposition to the American Rescue Plan, a sprawling $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief and stimulus package passed without GOP support last year, as well as the Democrats’ signature Inflation Reduction Act and the Biden administration’s sweeping student loans forgiveness plan.

Republicans are also becoming increasingly confident of their prospects of shaping government funding for fiscal 2023, as more polling has shown the party is gaining an upper hand in key races that could determine control of Congress.

However, even as they attack non-defense spending, many Republicans have pressed for higher funding for defense, pointing to the rising costs of materials.

Debt ceiling

The raising of the debt ceiling is likely to be a huge fight in Washington if the GOP takes back the House.

Raising the debt ceiling has little direct effect on inflation. While government spending has some connection to inflation, the debt ceiling must be raised to account for past spending by Congresses.

Congressional lawmakers cut a deal to raise the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion in December 2021, days before the predicted default date. The action allowed the U.S. to avoid default until at least 2023, when either another increase or a suspension will likely be needed to prevent economic turmoil.

Republicans could use the new deadline as leverage in negotiations to cut spending, holding up any action on the debt ceiling to try to force concessions from Democrats. GOP lawmakers went down a similar path in 2011, when the House Republican majority held changes to the debt ceiling hostage in an effort to secure deficit cuts.

The standoff led Standard & Poor’s to downgrade the U.S. credit rating for the first time to AA+. Before then, it had never dropped below AAA.

Asked by Punchbowl News if Republicans would bring entitlement reforms into the debate over the debt ceiling, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said he would not “predetermine” anything, sparking fears that programs like Social Security and Medicare could be at risk.

He sought to tame those concerns one day later, telling CNBC in an interview “I never mentioned Social Security or Medicare,” while doubling down on his statement that a change in behavior must take place in relation to the debt ceiling.

Energy

House Republicans are pushing energy independence as a way to lower costs.

Gas prices have fluctuated in recent months, hitting a peak of more than $5 a gallon on average nationally in June before falling back to $3.82 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA.

Prices at the pump shot up in-part because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Concerns over gas prices heightened this month after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its oil-exporting allies, including Russia, announced a two-million barrel-per day reduction in oil production.

In the House GOP conference’s midterm messaging and policy platform, dubbed the “Commitment to America,” Republican lawmakers vowed to “regain American energy independence and lower prices at the pump” by maximizing the production of domestic-made energy and slashing the permitting process to lessen the U.S.’s reliance on other countries.

“The hardworking people of this country are paying the price. Everything is more expensive here at home and our enemies are emboldened. President Biden must reverse course and take meaningful action to unleash American energy,” Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), the top Republican on the Energy and Committee Committee, said in a statement following the OPEC+ announcement.

House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) told “Fox News Sunday” that if the U.S. produces more energy domestically, “we would be lowering energy costs like we had two years ago.”

The prospects of gas prices decreasing through energy independence in the short term, however, are slim. Many decisions about whether to drill for oil are made by private companies rather than government policy.

And when it comes to oil the federal government does have authority over, new onshore drilling leases typically take roughly 4.5 years on average to deliver oil to the pump.

Supply chain

Supply chain issues have been seen as a major cause of inflation, though more recently they have been seen as less of an issue.

In a policy agenda unveiled by top House Republicans last month, leaders focused on strengthening the nation’s supply chains. 

“The frightening supply shock of baby formula this year was the tip of the iceberg of a broken supply chain that has increased costs and left store shelves empty,” the agenda states. “Record inflation is driving increases in the price of everyday essentials, while our country remains dangerously reliant on foreign countries like China for critical supplies, medicines, and technology.”

The agenda doesn’t provide more information for the push, though the effort comes a year after over 100 Republicans penned a letter to Biden, opposing certain regulatory actions and social spending they linked to supply chain issues.

Taxes

Republican leaders have also set their sights on tax changes, with some pushing for an extension to tax cuts included in former President Trump’s 2017 signature tax law.

According to The Washington Post, provisions of the law Republicans are eyeing to make permanent include language pertaining to tax rates for individuals. The paper also reported interest in doing away with certain tax increases for corporations.

In the House GOP’s policy agenda to fight inflation and lower living costs, leaders push for “pro-growth tax and deregulatory policies” that they argue would “increase take-home pay, create good-paying jobs, and bring stability to the economy.”

McCarthy has also reportedly signaled support for a push by Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) to make other portions of Trump’s tax law long-lasting. 

At the same time, Republicans have come out against provisions pushed by Democrats seeking to pay for funding in areas like healthcare and climate with tax increases targeting wealthy corporations and individuals – and some have held out hope for further challenges to those measures as well.

Source: TEST FEED1

How Starbucks baristas spurred a new US labor movement

On the day last winter when Starbucks workers at two coffeehouses in Buffalo, N.Y., voted to unionize, the moribund labor movement stirred to life. 

Petitions for union elections rose by 53 percent in the fiscal year that ended in September, a surge largely inspired by Starbucks baristas in Buffalo. The caseload of the National Labor Relations Board swelled by 23 percent, the largest year-to-year increase since the Eisenhower administration. 

Union membership stands at a historic low. Yet, more Americans approve of unions now than at any time since 1965, according to Gallup polls. Union support stands at 89 percent for Democrats and 56 percent for Republicans, marking the first time Gallup has found a majority of Republicans willing to rally around organized labor.  

“Unions are cool again, is what it comes down to,” said Ruth Milkman, a sociologist at the CUNY School of Labor and Urban Studies. 

Over the past year, workers have organized unions at blue-chip corporations with hipster credentials and progressive images: Starbucks. Trader Joe’s. Chipotle. Amazon. REI. Apple.  

Protests have also gone viral. A TikTok video of a walkout by Starbucks workers in Buffalo drew 30 million views. 

All of these events have encouraged talk of a new labor movement.  

“For sure, the needle is being moved by the number of union elections taking place,” said Will Brucher, an assistant teaching professor of labor studies and employment relations at Rutgers University.  

“I think a lot of these workers understand their own value, that they’re the ones making it a fun place to shop,” Brucher said. “Sure, they want more money. It’s the highest inflation in 40 years. They’re working for companies that have made a ton of money.” 

But even labor supporters concede they will need more than a few viral videos to reverse the decades-long decline of organized labor.  

Since 1983, the share of U.S. workers represented by unions has fallen from 23 percent to 12 percent. One encouraging sign, amid the decline, is that women and men are now more or less equally represented in union ranks. Three decades ago, union men outnumbered union women almost 2 to 1. 

If the new labor movement has a public face, it is Starbucks, or, more specifically, the Starbucks logo, the smiling siren replaced by a defiant fist clutching what appears to be a venti iced latte. More than 250 Starbucks shops have unionized. The movement started last December in Buffalo.  

“I had a coworker who had been at the company for 13 years, and she was only making 25 cents more an hour than me when I started,” said Will Westlake, one of the Buffalo organizers.  

“When I’m standing there making seven-dollar drinks, and I make 45 of them every half hour, and I’m only getting paid $15.26, when this campaign started,” Westlake said. “I know that it only takes maybe a month of sales, two months of sales, to pay the entire salaries of everybody in my shop.” 

Half a century ago, the typical union man was a middle-aged, white Democrat with a high-school education and a blue-collar job. But today, the group of labor movement supporters appears to be more politically diverse.

“We do have Trump supporters on our organizing committees,” Westlake said. “We have moderate Republicans. We have centrist Democrats. We have progressives.” 

Westlake is 25. At his own Buffalo union shop, he said, organizers are “mostly under 35, mostly women, and mostly queer.” 

New York is a historically strong union state. But a recent union victory at an Apple store in Oklahoma City, and labor wins at Starbucks stores in Kansas, Florida and South Carolina, defy conventional wisdom that unions cannot prevail in labor-resistant enclaves.  

“This isn’t a big union coming in and saying, ‘We’re going to organize Starbucks workers,” said U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan, a pro-union Democrat from Madison, Wis. “This is young, young people who are not part of the labor movement, organizing peers.” 

Starbucks unions accuse the coffee chain of firing more than 100 union leaders in retaliation for their efforts. Westlake lost his own barista job this month after showing up to work wearing a suicide awareness button. 

A Starbucks spokesperson countered that Westlake and his employer parted ways over “repeated attendance and dress-code policy violations.”  

The Seattle-based roastery prides itself on a benevolent and forward-thinking corporate culture. From the 1990s, Starbucks offered health insurance and stock options even to part-time employees, calling them “partners” to suggest a flattened chain of command. 

“No Starbucks partner has been or will be disciplined or separated for supporting, organizing, or otherwise engaging in lawful union activity,” the company spokesperson said in an email interview. 

Apart from the millennial trappings, the labor battle at Starbucks has played out like many labor disputes of yore. Workers leveraged their collective voice to push improvements in pay, benefits and working conditions. The employer pledged support to the workers and their grievances, but not to the union, which it portrayed as a meddlesome intermediary.  

“From the beginning,” the Starbucks spokesperson said, “we’ve been clear in our belief that we are better together as partners, without a union between us.” 

Although union membership has dwindled in recent years, union support has rebounded.  

Public empathy for unions ran strong from the New Deal 1930s through the Great Society 1960s. Confidence flagged through the 1970s and 1980s, an era of perennial scandals. The decline of the American auto industry, and President Reagan’s unblinking crackdown on striking air traffic controllers in 1981, encouraged the view of labor organizing as archaic and counterproductive.  

In years since, many Americans came to view unions as socialist and anti-American. Yet, overall public support for the labor movement dipped below 50 percent only once, in 2009, the year former President George W. Bush floated a controversial $80 billion bailout to automakers.  

The Great Recession of 2008 inspired that bailout. The same downturn may have seeded the new movement. 

“Millennials, Generation Z, generations that are more educated than any previous generation, were led to expect that going to college would lead to useful and remunerative careers,” said Milkman, of CUNY. “And then they faced this labor market where what’s available are very inferior jobs to what was available before.” 

Millennial outrage over low wages and meager working conditions energized former President Obama’s campaign in 2008, Occupy Wall Street in 2011, Black Lives Matter in 2013 and Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) presidential run in 2016.  

Then came the pandemic. 

Ava Alsens was working at a Trader Joe’s when COVID-19 hit. Like many in the retail industry, Alsens watched a relatively idyllic workplace fall to dystopian shambles.   

“I’ve been through three or four major outbreaks of COVID involving 20 to 30 crew members at multiple stores,” Alsens said, using Trader Joe’s nautical lingo for its own employees.  

“I started out at a store that had a lot of veteran crew members. And then half the people left. And on just an emotional level, it felt like a totally different place.” 

Talk of unionization at Trader Joe’s began in 2020. The employer “sent out a letter to everybody in the company saying we didn’t need a union, that we were in a good position on our own,” Alsens said. “That ended up sparking a lot of conversations in the store.” 

The Trader Joe’s in downtown Minneapolis, where Alsens now works, voted to unionize in August. Organizers followed the lead of the Trader Joe’s crew in Hadley, Mass., who formed a union in July. The Hadley crew followed the lead of Starbucks. 

“When someone else does it,” Alsens said, “it makes you feel like you can, too.” 

Source: TEST FEED1

Sharp swing in momentum toward GOP sparks Democratic angst

Angst is growing among Democrats that the momentum they saw earlier this year in their bid to keep control of the Senate is beginning to wane as towering inflation and deepening economic unease supplant issues like abortion rights atop the list of voters’ concerns.

As recently as a few weeks ago, Democrats were bullish about their chances of defying harsh historical and political headwinds, believing that voter anger over the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and lingering GOP concerns about the quality of Republican candidates might allow them to not only hold, but expand their paper-thin Senate majority.

But the political winds appear to be shifting once again in the GOP’s favor. Recent polling has found Republicans regaining an edge on the so-called generic ballot, a survey question that asks voters which party they plan to vote for in November. Meanwhile, the data website FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast shows Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate dropping by 11 percent over the past month.

“A month ago, it looked like not only were the Democrats poised to hold the Senate, the question was: were they going to be able to get, you know, two extra seats?” said Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster who worked on former President Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns. “Now I think the hope is just to hang on.” 

With fewer than three weeks to go before Election Day and early voting already underway in key battleground states like Georgia and Arizona, the tightening contest for the Senate has some Democrats fearing that the party may have peaked too early.

“If you look at the Dobbs decision — that seems to have come a little too early for the Democrats,” Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist and former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), said, referring to Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the Supreme Court decision that overturned the constitutional right on abortion. 

“And I think there [are] other currents — inflation is probably the biggest one — that have kind of interfered with the singularity of that argument.”

Indeed, Republicans have hammered Democrats relentlessly on inflation, the economy and crime throughout the fall campaign season, betting that those issues would eventually outmuscle Democrats’ core themes: that abortion rights are at risk, the future of American democracy is in jeopardy and that they’re capable of governing in a volatile moment in the country’s history.

The New York Times-Siena College poll of 792 likely voters nationwide showed the economy and inflation topping the list of problems facing the country, while only 5 percent of voters said that abortion is the most pressing issue. Even among Democratic voters, economic challenges took precedence over reproductive rights. 

In one of the poll’s more alarming findings for Democrats, women who identified as independents said they preferred Republicans by an 18-point margin, a stark reversal from September, when those voters favored Democrats by a 14-point margin. Democrats have sought relentlessly to sway those voters by warning of threats to abortion rights.

“The voters who would be most susceptible to the Democrats’ messaging on abortion are shifting,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist and former congressional candidate.

“As long as the Republicans stay focused on two things — my money, my family — then they’ll win in 2022,” he added. “They’ll win in 2024. Because the Democrats aren’t showing any sign of changing their approach.”

To be sure, Democrats still stand a decent chance at holding their Senate majority in spite of the recent shifts. Their Senate candidates are outraising Republicans across the board, the GOP is seeking to wrangle a roster of untested candidates and, as of Thursday, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast still gives Democrats a 60 percent chance of winning the Senate.

At the same time, Democratic incumbents who were considered some of the most vulnerable have solidified their positions in key races. 

In Arizona, for example, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) has a distinct polling and financial lead over his Republican rival Blake Masters. Likewise, New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) is leading her GOP challenger Don Bolduc by nearly 8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Both races lean in Democrats’ favor, according to The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper.

But with the Senate divided 50-50 between the two parties, Democrats have no room for error. If Republicans net even a single seat in the upper chamber next month, it would deliver them the majority.

In Nevada, the race between Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Republican Adam Laxalt remains in a dead heat. And despite facing a spate of scandals and questions about his personal history, Republican Herschel Walker has managed to stay within striking distance of Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) in Georgia. 

Democrats still stand a chance at flipping a GOP-held Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz are vying to succeed retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), though polling has shown a tightening race in recent weeks following a barrage of attacks against Fetterman accusing him of being soft on crime.

“A lot of these races — they were always going to tighten,” one Democratic strategist said. “I think a lot of folks just got ahead of themselves over the summer, thinking they had some kind of silver bullet.”

“I still say advantage Democrats for now,” the strategist added. “But yeah, no doubt the Republicans are catching up a little bit.”

Some Democrats expressed frustration with the way key Senate races have tightened. Amandi, the pollster, said that Democrats need to focus their closing message on sharpening the contrast between themselves and “extreme, unhinged Republican candidates.”

“Perhaps Democratic messaging hasn’t been as strong as it could be,” Amandi said. “But we’re talking about things tightening when the choice is between chaos and competency. The Democrats have governed with a competent, steady hand in a very volatile environment. What we’ve seen from the Republican Party over the last six years has been wholesale unhinged chaos. And what they’re offering is more chaos.”

Others, however, said that the party simply hasn’t done enough to campaign on meaningful legislative accomplishments and the pocketbook issues that could ultimately decide the midterms.

“How is it possible that seniors don’t know about the reduction in drug prices because of the ability of Medicare to negotiate?” Jonathan Tasini, a former national surrogate for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) 2016 presidential bid, said, referring to a provision in the Inflation Reduction Act, which was signed into law this summer.

“It’s obviously going to be very close, but it shouldn’t be,” he added. “Control of the Senate will be decided by probably a seat or two. And it just shouldn’t.” 

Keith Naughton, a veteran Republican strategist with deep experience in Pennsylvania politics, said that the improving environment for the GOP isn’t necessarily surprising. Rather, it’s the result of more voters tuning into the political conversation as Election Day draws nearer.

“It’s easy to peak when people aren’t paying as much attention,” Naughton said. “And now that people are getting down to voting, they’re going to vote on the bigger issues. And the bigger issues were always inflation and crime.”

Source: TEST FEED1