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Ukraine poised for crucial blow to Putin in battle for Kherson

Ukraine appears poised to deliver another crucial blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war effort with a counteroffensive to take back Kherson, which was the first major Ukrainian city seized by Russia after its invasion in February. 

Ukraine has blacked out all media on its operations around the southern city this week, as it did ahead of a successful counteroffensive in the northeast last month. Experts studying the war said all signs point to a major offensive in the coming days, with Russia already signaling its potential retreat. 

Ukrainian victory in Kherson, which is the only regional capital that has been captured by Russian forces, could set the direction of the rest of the war, said John Spencer, chairman of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point.

“Strategically, operationally and tactically, it’ll send a signal that Russia can’t hold ground in Ukraine, and the path to victory for Ukraine is pretty much assured. The timeline’s still in question, but the path to victory is pretty assured,” he said. 

Russia has sent nearly 30,000 troops to Kherson in an attempt to reinforce its positions; however, Ukraine has reportedly reclaimed dozens of settlements in the region and has been increasing its air strikes on Russian defense systems, suggesting a combined ground and air assault coming soon, Spencer said. 

With no information coming from the Ukrainian side, war observers have been left interpreting radar and signals from the Kremlin, which appears to be “shaping the information space to prepare the Russian population for military defeat in Kherson,” said George Barros, a Russia and Ukraine analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.

Gen. Sergey Surovikin, the newly installed commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, this week said “difficult decisions” may be necessary in Kherson, adding: “We will be guided by the need to preserve the lives of the civilian population and our military personnel as much as possible.”

Barros said that does not mean Russia will give up the city without a fight, but rather that it is preparing for possible defeat, after its losses in Kharkiv last month seemed to stun many pundits and the Russian public. 

The U.K.’s Defense Ministry said Thursday that Surovikin’s announcement “likely indicates that the Russian authorities are seriously considering a major withdrawal of their forces from the area west of the Dnipro river.” 

And American officials told The New York Times that sustained Ukrainian pressure in the coming weeks could break Russian units and clear the way to seizing Kherson. 

Putin also announced martial law in annexed regions of Ukraine this week, creating a veneer of legal legitimacy for efforts by occupying officials to evacuate Kherson. Those officials said Thursday that 15,000 Ukrainians had already been evacuated, with plans to send some 60,000 people to Russia in the coming days. 

Even a withdrawal of Russia’s 30,000 troops would not be easy. Ukraine has largely destroyed the main bridges crossing the Dnieper River around Kherson, leaving Russians only a pontoon bridge and an earthen crossing at the key Kakhovka dam to move forces and equipment across the river. 

Branislav Slantchev, a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, said Ukraine appears to be allowing Russian troops to leave, either to avoid casualties or because Ukrainian commanders are not confident they can take on the current Russian forces. 

Russian officials have also been warning locals that Ukraine is planning to blow up the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant, which Slantchev and others see as laying the groundwork for a “false flag” operation, in which Russia will destroy the dam after retreating across it, flooding densely populated areas along the riverbank in a foot or more of water.  

“And then they’re going to start shelling this entire area from the other bank,” Slantchev said of Russian forces. “That’s a bit of a problem because they actually can reach it … and it will not be easy for Ukrainians to push them out until they figure out a way to cross the river themselves.”

However, Ukrainian victory in Kherson is not a fait accompli. Russian officials have said they are not giving up the city, but merely moving out civilians ahead of the battle to come. 

“It should be remembered that if the Kremlin decides to defend Kherson and turn it into a fortress, the Ukrainian forces may give up their capture for fear of suffering heavy losses during the fighting in the city,” said Piotr Żochowski, a senior fellow at the Warsaw-based OSW Centre for Eastern Studies.

Żochowski added that Kherson remains of “great military importance” to Russia, and losing it would jeopardize a crucial land connection between occupied Crimea and Russia. 

Barros called the north bank of the Dnieper “extremely strategically important territory,” and said Ukraine failing to oust Russian troops could allow them to continue ground operations in “right bank Ukraine,” which includes the crucial port city of Odessa, a little more than 200 km (124 miles) away from Kherson. 

Russia’s military victories so far have been contained in the east of the country, where it has now annexed four occupied regions including Kherson, though Russian missiles have hit targets across the country.  

Kherson is not the only battle raging in Ukraine ahead of the winter. Fighting continues in towns in the northeast, where Ukraine surprised the world with its rout of Russian forces last month. 

And Russia is also waging a furious assault on Bakhmut, an eastern city in the Donetsk, where the private Wagner forces are said to be making some gains with pounding artillery attacks. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend called the fighting in Bakhmut “the most difficult” in the country. 

If Ukraine loses Bakhmut, it could allow Russia to advance to other key cities in Donetsk, which is among the regions annexed by Moscow.

Żochowski said the Russian Ministry of Defense has told forces to capture Bakhmut by the end of October, which would deliver a win that could help offset a loss in Kherson. 

Slantchev said Russian control of Bakhmut would threaten all of the territories in the north that Ukraine has recently liberated. 

“With this kind of war there is always back and forth,” he said. “People always want to say so now there’s momentum and now it’s going to end this way. But it never quite works out that way.”

Source: TEST FEED1

GOP wave threatens blue-state strongholds

Democrats are increasingly worried that Republicans will make gains in deep-blue strongholds such as New York and Oregon as the winds appear to shift in the GOP’s favor ahead of next month’s midterm elections. 

The GOP is making competitive bids to take back governorships in both states, which reliably go for Democrats in presidential elections. The Republican gains could also extend to the House, where the GOP is making inroads in the aforementioned states, along with Rhode Island and others. 

“I would say Oregon Democrats are worried. We have a history of competitive gubernatorial elections, but usually we’re up by at least two points at this point in October, not down by two like the current public polls show,” said Oregon-based Democratic strategist Jake Foster. 

“And you know, frankly, we’re not used to hearing our state mentioned in the same breath as Arizona or Nevada,” Foster added, noting two other closely watched gubernatorial races.

Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since 1982, nor has it gone for the GOP presidential nominee since 1984. In 2020 alone, President Biden won the state by 16 points. 

But Republican Christine Drazan could be poised this year to win the Oregon gubernatorial race over Democrat Tina Kotek given a confluence of factors. Current Gov. Kate Brown (D) is the most unpopular governor in the country per data from Morning Consult. Adding to that are issues like crime and homelessness, which are seen as top of mind for residents. Finally, but just as significantly, third-party candidate Betsy Johnson, a Democrat-turned-Independent, could complicate things further by siphoning off votes from her former party.

An Emerson College Polling survey released earlier this month showed Drazan leading Kotek 36 percent to 34 percent, within the margin of error and effectively tying the two. Kotek’s campaign blamed Johnson for being a disruptor in the race and taking away crucial votes.

“One of the main reasons Tina decided to run for Governor is because Kate Brown was absent on two of Oregon’s biggest problems: homelessness and addiction. Tina has an urgent plan of action to make real change in all of these areas: reducing homelessness, making housing more affordable, and fixing our broken mental health and addiction treatment systems,” Kotek spokesperson Katie Wertheimer said in a statement.

“She will lead where Kate Brown couldn’t or wouldn’t. Christine Drazan has a failing record on these issues, and we don’t need to take our state to the far right-wing to fix these problems.”

Over in New York, recent polling has also shown Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D) lead shrinking as she tries to fend off a challenge from Republican Lee Zeldin. A Siena College survey released on Tuesday showed 52 percent of respondents saying they would vote for Hochul compared to 41 percent for Zeldin, a narrower margin than the 17-percentage point margin the governor held in a poll three weeks ago. The latest Siena College survey poll also showed Zeldin leading Hochul among independents, 49 percent to 40 percent. 

Meanwhile, a separate Quinnipiac University poll also released on Tuesday showed Hochul only leading Zeldin 50 percent to 46 percent. Among independents, Zeldin led Hochul 57 percent to 37 percent. Still, Hochul’s approval rating shows her above water for now. 

Hochul campaign spokesman Jerrel Harvey, who took issue with the Quinnipiac poll, said the governor was not taking the race for granted.

“Despite $8 million in outside spending from right-wing groups pushing baseless lies, Governor Hochul maintains a double-digit lead against her opponent,” he said. “Even in today’s Quinnipiac poll, which substantially undercounted Democrats, Governor Hochul continues to receive support from fifty percent of New Yorkers and we are confident in our ability to turn out voters in every community.”

Still, some Democrats see the numbers as unsettling.

“It’s concerning,” said Basil Smikle, former executive director for the New York State Democratic Party. “It means that … Hochul needs to make a strong closing argument to the voter in these last couple of weeks.”

Smikle noted that the issue of crime was a salient one in the state, including in New York City. He said that Zeldin had “tapped into this nerve” on an issue that both parties care about. He also believed that the party is suffering from the historic national headwinds a president’s party typically faces in midterms, adding that they could have implications for more than just Hochul.

“I will say that these national winds are not just about the … gubernatorial race. There are two congressional races that should concern Democrats … the 17th and the 19th,” Smikle said, referring to Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s (D-N.Y.) race and a newly drawn open seat, later adding that “those two races should not be as close as they are forecast to be.” 

Still, Democrats are brushing off those concerns, saying they understood the political environment they were walking into this cycle. 

“From day one, the DCCC has been clear eyed about the electoral challenges we face this cycle. Across the map, we are more competitive because House Democrats, like Chairman Maloney, took action to end the pandemic, get people back to work, and invest in America. Voters are going to reject extremist Republicans like MAGA Mike Lawler in November — Every special election in New York this summer makes that clear,” said Chris Taylor, spokesperson for the House Democrats’ campaign arm. 

Cody Eiss, campaign manager for Democrat Josh Riley, who’s running in the 19th district, echoed that sentiment, saying “We’re not focused on what the forecasters and pundits in D.C. say or the chattering class in Albany and D.C., we’re focused on running our campaign and delivering a winning message.”

Yet elsewhere too there are House districts of various shades of blue where this trend is emerging. Take, for example, Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District: The seat has long been considered a safely Democratic one, having been represented by outgoing Rep. Jim Langevin (D-R.I.) for two decades. 

But recent polling has shown Republican Allan Fung leading Democrat Seth Magaziner, including a Suffolk University-Boston Globe poll released last week that had Fung at 45 percent compared to Magaziner at 37 percent. And the race has been rated a “toss up” by the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report.

In Oregon’s 6th Congressional District, which has similarly been seen as favoring Democrats and which went for Biden by double digits in 2020, the race has also been rated a “toss up” by the Cook Report. Though the district is not quite as blue as other House seats, the competitive environment has required Democrats to move around their resources. 

AdImpact, which tracks ad spending among campaigns, noted that a super PAC aligned with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), had moved their broadcast flight from Oregon’s 5th Congressional District to the 6th Congressional District.

Miles Coleman, associate editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said it’s possible the Democrats in Oregon running for Congress could ride on the coattails of Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who is up for reelection this year and whom Coleman described as an “electoral overperformer.” 

Still, Republicans believe the environment and type of candidates this cycle has fielded has given them a shot at making serious inroads. 

“Gains in the northeast are poised to be the story of the night,” predicted Matt Gorman, a former spokesperson for the House GOP campaign arm. “Whether [it’s] Allan Fung in Rhode Island, George Logan in Connecticut. Even governorships, possibly, Paul LePage. How well we could do in New York in the House seats and maybe even getting close to the governor’s race.”

Source: TEST FEED1

It's left vs. Federal Reserve on interest rates hikes

Progressive Democrats are ripping the Federal Reserve over deepening concerns the central bank could drive the U.S. into recession amid sky-high inflation not seen in four decades.

Top liberal lawmakers are urging the Fed to stop hiking interest rates and slowing the U.S. economy, insisting that it’ll do nothing to curb inflation while plunging millions into joblessness. 

“I think they’re hurting the situation,” Sen. Bernie Sanders, chair of the Senate Budget Committee, said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” referring to the Fed’s rate hike campaign.

“I think it is wrong to be saying the way we deal with inflation is by lowering wages and increasing unemployment. That is not what we should be doing,” he continued.

The Fed in March began a series of rapid increases to its baseline interest rate range, which controls borrowing costs throughout the economy. 

The Fed aims to slow inflation by raising interest rates and reducing the amount of money households and businesses have to spend. Less spending in the economy should force businesses to lower their prices to compensate for slower sales, but also push them to hire fewer employees and at lower wages.

Fed officials are hopeful they can raise rates high enough to bring inflation down from an annual rate of 8.1 percent in September without serious damage to the economy. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell, an appointee of former President Trump, warned that inflation is far too high to come down without “pain,” dashing hopes for a “soft landing” where Americans keep their jobs.

Members of the Fed panel responsible for interest rate hikes see the jobless rate rising to 4.4 percent by the end of 2023, nearly one percentage point higher than the September jobless rate of 3.5 percent. While a 4.4 percent unemployment rate is low compared to previous decades, it would mean more than 1 million Americans would lose their jobs over the next 15 months.

“We are going to keep raising rates for a while,” said Patrick Harker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, in a Thursday speech.

“Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4% by the end of the year,” he continued, referring to the Fed’s baseline interest range, which is currently set at 3 to 3.25 percent.

Concerns about the economy, and more specifically the cost of living, are top of mind for voters three weeks away from the 2022 midterm elections. High inflation and recession fears are likely to cost Democrats their majority in the House and could also give Republicans control of the Senate, derailing President Biden’s domestic agenda.

Higher Fed interest rates may also ratchet up the pressure felt by American families. And while a recession is unlikely to begin this year, Democrats are blasting the Fed for pushing the U.S. closer to a downturn.

“Chair Powell has said that the Fed’s rapid interest rate hikes will bring ‘pain’ for working families and even admitted it won’t lower food or gas prices. Throwing Americans out of work with a recession is not the solution to fight inflation,” tweeted Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) last week.

The looming midterm elections are forcing Democrats to reckon with voters’ concerns about the economy. But the backlash from Warren and Sanders — both of whom opposed Biden’s renomination of Powell — also comes amid deepening fears among experts.

The full impact of Fed interest rate movements can take months or even years to show up in the economy, which is already slowing under the weight of high prices and other global headwinds.

Rate hikes are also pushing the global economy toward a sharper downturn, with Europe likely already in recession and developing nations still far behind in the recoveries from the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“The Fed now has few choices but to make everything worse,” said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner of research firm Federal Financial Analytics, in a Thursday interview.

Experts fear that a global economic downturn could help push the US deeper into its own recession, especially if the Fed takes further steps to slow down hiring and wage growth.

Fifty-five percent of economists believe the Fed raising interest rates too high is the greatest risk to the U.S. economy in 2023, according to a poll conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), a research group. And 75 percent of the group said the Fed only has a coin flip’s chance at best of beating inflation without causing a recession.

Those higher risks are fueling more criticism from Democrats, particularly those long suspicious of the Fed’s commitment to those beyond Wall Street.

“This inflation thing is a real issue. It is a global issue. But at a time when working families are struggling and the people on top are doing phenomenally well … you don’t go after working people,” Sanders said Sunday.

Even so, pinning the blame on the Fed may yield little electoral success for Democrats. 

“Democrats, I think, far too often talk about the economy in an esoteric way,” said Michael Hopkins, a Democratic strategist, in a Thursday interview.

“Focusing on the Fed and on the actual statistics themselves as the basis for your argument is too wonkish. The average American does not understand how inflation works, does not understand how the Fed works, or even who’s in charge,” he continued. 

Instead, Hopkins suggested, Democrats should focus on sharing the personal stories of Americans helped by other aspects of the economy and Biden’s agenda. 

Under Biden, the U.S. has added more than 10 million jobs and an average of 420,000 each month since the start of 2022. The president and Democrats also took action to cut medical care and prescription drug costs, expand affordable internet access, raise taxes on corporations and tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to buffett rising gas prices.

“There is a narrative to be told. But it’s got to be a complete story.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Five investigations House Republicans are plotting if they win majority

From Hunter Biden to alleged politicization in the Department of Justice and beyond, House Republicans have been preparing for months to unleash a flood of investigatory actions and findings if they win a majority in the Nov. 8 midterm election.

Investigations would be a major tool for the House GOP, as many top policy priorities would be unlikely to make it past a filibuster in the Senate or be signed by President Biden. 

With the majority also comes the ability to dictate the focus of hearings and compel testimony and documents, including some that they may have already requested but not received, through subpoenas. That could put pressure on the Biden administration. 

The House GOP’s “Commitment to America” midterm policy and messaging plan boasts that House Republicans have already sent more than 500 requests for information and documents.

Hunter Biden and Biden family business activities

Rep. James Comer (Ky.), the top Republican on the House Oversight and Reform Committee in line to be chair of the panel, has promised hearings and probes into the Biden family’s overseas business activities.

Republicans on the committee have a copy of Hunter Biden’s laptop hard drive first revealed shortly before the 2020 election, but say that salacious video and photos in the files are not the focus.

“The reason we’re investigating Hunter Biden is because we believe he’s compromised Joe Biden,” Comer told reporters in September.

A top priority for Republicans on the Oversight panel is gaining access to the Treasury Department’s suspicious activity reports from U.S. banks relating to foreign business deals from Hunter Biden and other Biden associates. Republicans have said that the Treasury Department has refused to provide the reports, and alleged that Biden family members have prompted at least 150 suspicious activity reports.

“I think that’ll go a long way towards helping us be able to uncover some questions that the American people have about the ethics, and whether or not the Biden administration is truly compromised by Hunter’s shady business dealings,” Comer said.

Alleged politicization in the Department of Justice

Republican trust in federal law enforcement agencies plummeted alongside the rise of former President Trump and special counsel Robert Meuller’s investigation into him, and the sense among the GOP that the DOJ and FBI are biased against conservatives has only grown since that time.

One top topic for a GOP House will be the DOJ’s decision to search Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in August and seize classified materials.

Republicans have requested documents from the National Archives and the FBI related to the decision to refer the matter of missing documents to the FBI and to execute the search warrant. After the raid, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) warned Attorney General Merrick Garland to “preserve your documents and clear your calendar.”

GOP interest in the DOJ extends beyond Trump, though. 

“The No. 1 thing is this weaponization of the DOJ against the American people,” House Judiciary Committee ranking member Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who is likely to chair the committee in a GOP majority, said at the House GOP’s platform rollout event in September.

Jordan has said that his office has received information from more than a dozen whistleblowers who came forward with allegations of FBI bias against conservatives, including the agency retaliating against employees with conservative views.

In a major win for the House GOP, former FBI official Jill Stanborn will sit for a transcribed interview with the House Judiciary Committee on Dec. 2. Jordan and Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) sought testimony from Stanborn in relation to whistleblower claims that the FBI pressured agents to improperly reclassify cases as “domestic violent extremism.”

COVID-19 origins and policies

The Democratic-controlled House created a select Oversight subcommittee on the coronavirus in 2020, and Republicans have complained that the committee did not hold hearings on the origin of the virus.

A report from Republicans on the select subcommittee released Wednesday pledged to keep investigating U.S. dollars that flowed to research on coronaviruses at a Wuhan, China, lab, officials who sought to squash the lab leak hypothesis, and state policies that pushed COVID-positive patients into nursing homes.

Republicans from the subcommittee hosted an expert forum, during which panelists said they thought evidence pointed to the virus originating in the Wuhan lab. 

Studies released this year point to natural origins of the virus. The U.S. intelligence community has said the virus was not created as a bioweapon.

Anthony Fauci, the chief medical adviser to President Biden who has spent decades as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, plans to step down from his government positions in December. But Republicans say that will not stop them from calling Fauci to appear before Congress to talk about the origins of the virus.

Afghanistan withdrawal

GOP leaders have pledged to hold more hearings on the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 that led to the deaths of 13 service members in a bombing and the Taliban taking control of the country, saying that unanswered questions remain.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Republicans released an “interim report” on the withdrawal in August, finding that the State Department “took very few substantive steps” to prepare for the consequences in the months ahead of the August withdrawal.

The report said that the State Department failed to provide numerous materials relating to the withdrawal and forecasted the intention to use subpoena power to retrieve those documents as well as have officials sit for transcribed interviews. 

Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) on Tuesday also sent a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin requesting information on how the Department of Defense has “secured, archived, and standardized operational data and intelligence” from Afghanistan. In an interview with The Hill, Waltz said that data is necessary in case the U.S. has to go back into Afghanistan to counter terror threats.

Handling of U.S.-Mexico border

The surge of migrants at the southern border and the Biden administration’s policies that allow the migrants into the country are top campaign issues for Republicans in the midterms and would be a sharp focus in a GOP House.

“We will give [Homeland Security] Secretary [Alejandro] Mayorkas a reserved parking spot, he will be testifying so much about this,” House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) said at Republicans’ “Commitment to America” rollout event in September.

Deaths of migrants at the border, the flow of illegal drugs like fentanyl into the U.S., and the Department of Homeland Security’s ending of the “Remain in Mexico” policy for asylum-seekers are other likely topics of inquiry. A letter from Republicans in April accused Mayorkas of having “disregard for the enforcement of U.S. immigration laws.”

Multiple Republicans members have introduced articles of impeachment against Mayorkas in the current Congress. McCarthy has declined to commit to impeachment of any Biden Cabinet member, saying he will not support a political impeachment, but opened the door to impeaching Mayorkas in an April stop near the U.S.-Mexico border.

“This is his moment in time to do his job. But at any time if someone is derelict in their job, there is always the option of impeaching somebody,” McCarthy said at the time.

Source: TEST FEED1

Rick Scott: Senate Republicans have path to 55-seat majority

GREENSBORO, N.C. — National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Rick Scott (R-Fla.) says Republicans will likely control 52 Senate seats next year and have a pathway to a 55-seat majority, given how recent polls show GOP candidates picking up momentum.  

Scott is voicing a more confident view of the Nov. 8 midterm election than Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who has predicted the battle for the Senate will be “really close either way” and whatever party wins is likely to control a very narrow majority.  

“It starts right here, we’re going to get 52 Republican senators, we have to win here,” Scott said at a get-out-to-vote event with Senate candidate Ted Budd at the Republican Black Community Center. “I think we can get 53, 54, 55. 

“The energy is on our side. People are fed up with the Biden agenda,” he declared to applause from a roomful of Republican activists and supporters.  

A new East Carolina University poll released Tuesday showed Budd, a member of the House, leading his Democratic opponent, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, by 6 points. An ECU poll from early September showed Budd with only a three-point lead.  

Republicans would have to run the table of Senate races and knock off Democratic incumbents in five races while keeping their vulnerable seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and North Carolina protected to build a five-seat Senate majority next year.  

The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents are Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada and Raphael Warnock in Georgia, followed by Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona. After that New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) is considered next-most vulnerable, followed by Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), who is leading his Republican opponent by six points in a recent Marist poll.  

Scott, however, thinks Washington Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D) might also be in trouble if the GOP wave is as big as he suspects it could be next month.  

Scott, who was one of the first Senate Republicans to identify inflation as something that would become a major issue in the 2022 midterm, sees that issue along with crime as pushing independent women, a key swing bloc, to GOP candidates.  

He said that’s a big reason why Senate Republican candidates are closing in their Democratic rivals in public polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Connecticut.  

“If you look at the weekly polls and do we lot of polls, every week is getting better,” Scott explained in an interview with The Hill after the event.  

He pointed to the most recent Marquette poll showing Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson (R) leading Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes by 6 points, a substantial improvement over the 1-point lead he held over Barnes in a Marquette poll conducted in early September.  

“Then you look at here, Ted’s been consistently up,” he said, ticking off the North Carolina Senate race as a likely GOP win. “That keeps us at 50-50.” 

“Then you look at Herschel Walker, you look at all the polls, Herschel’s up three,” he said, without specifying exactly what polls he had in mind. “Georgia, we’ll pick that one up.”  

Scott arrived in North Carolina Thursday after campaigning for Walker earlier in the day.  

A recent Landmark Communications poll showed Walker tied with Warnock at 46 percent.  

An average of recent public polls compiled by Real Clear Politics shows Warnock leading Walker by 2.4 points, but that does not include private party and candidate polling.  

In Arizona, Scott said Senate GOP candidate “Blake [Masters] is barely behind.”  

“We’ve defined Kelly,” he added referring to the incumbent Democrat. 

A Republican-leaning Daily Wire/Trafalgar poll of 1,078 likely voters conducted from Oct. 16 to Oct. 17 shows Masters, a venture capital executive backed by former President Trump, trailing Kelly by only one point. He trails Kelly in the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls by 2.5 percent.  

Some Senate Republican strategists believe that Republican gubernatorial Kari Lake has a solid lead over Democrat Katie Hobbs and could help Maters down ballot.  

“Adam Laxalt has been up consistently, every one,” Scott added, referring to polls showing former Nevada state Attorney General Adam Laxalt with a lead over Cortez Masto. 

A USA Today/Suffolk poll conducted from Oct. 4 to Oct. 7 showed Cortez Masto with a 2-point lead ahead of Laxalt though a CBS News/ YouGov poll conducted from Oct. 14 to Oct. 19 showed Laxalt with a 1-point lead. Laxalt also leads Cortez Masto by 1.2 points in the Real Clear Politics average.  

“Joe O’Dea’s barely behind, Tiffany Smiley is down two” points, Scott added, referring to the Senate Republican challengers in Colorado and Washington state. 

The NRSC chairman has told GOP officials in Washington for the past year that he sees the Senate contest there as a “sleeper” race.  

In New Hampshire, Scott said “there’s a poll out showing [GOP challenger Don] Bolduc down two” and argued that “Hassan’s numbers have been horrible as far as her approval” rating.  

“I’m optimistic it’s going to be a good night and we have good candidates, they’re running good races. There’s a lot of energy,” he said, predicting a wave of Republican wins on Election Night.  

A Trafalgar Group poll conducted from Sept. 26 to Sept. 30 showed Hassan leading Bolduc, who previously claimed Trump won the 2020 election before reversing his position, by 3 points. The Real Clear Politics average has Hassan in the lead by nearly six points.  

Democrats think that Bolduc’s past statements make him unelectable but some Senate Republican strategists think he could win if there’s a GOP tsunami.  

McConnell, who has hedged expectations for months, sounded a much more cautious tone before Congress went on an extended recess before the election.  

“In every election every year, this year, past years, it’s great to have terrific candidates. We’re in a bunch of close races. I think we have a 50-50 shot of getting the Senate back. It’s going to be really, really close either way, in my view,” he told reporters in the Capitol on Sept. 28.   

Democrats were sounding confident last month about keeping their Senate majority. Sen. Gary Peters (Mich.), the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in early September that his party had a chance of controlling 52 Senate seats next year.  

Democrats got a shot of bad news this week when a New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 voters nationwide showed independent women are moving away from Democrats compared to a month ago.  

Self-identified women voters now favor Republicans by 18 points, a big shift from September when they favored Democrats by 14 points.  

Democrats including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) have criticized the poll’s methodology and small sample size. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Liz Truss’s downfall sparks talk of democracy’s decline in UK

Questions of democratic legitimacy are swirling in the United Kingdom after the resignation on Thursday of Prime Minister Liz Truss, whose government collapsed just 44 days after she took office.  

Truss’s downfall will trigger a second leadership election within the Conservative Party’s 170,000 members to pick a third prime minister for the country of 67 million this year.  

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, another conservative, resigned in July following revelations that he’d disobeyed the U.K.’s COVID-19 regulations while the country was on lockdown.  

Truss’s departure does not require a public vote to select a new government, though opposition party politicians seized on the moment to call for a general election.  

“Constitutionally, there’s no case for a general election. There wasn’t one when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair in 2007 nor in 1990 when John Major succeeded Margaret Thatcher,” British political scientist Vernon Bogdanor told the BBC Thursday. “But the political case is obviously very strong.” 

It was a case seized upon by Labour leader Kier Starmar, who said of the Conservatives, Britain “is not their personal fiefdom to run as they see fit.” 

“This is not just a soap opera at the top of the Tory party — it’s doing huge damage to the reputation of our country,” he continued. “We need a general election so the public can have their say on this utter chaos.” 

Bogdanor noted that the nation has never before had a second change of a prime minister within the same parliament since Winston Churchill replaced Neville Chamberlain as the nation moved toward World War II. And at that time, Chamberlain had served for several years as prime minister after replacing Stanley Baldwin — not just six weeks. 

The small group of electors that will again determine the head of the British government make up about one-quarter of 1 percent of the British population.  

One conservative member of Parliament was pressed on the issue during a radio interview.  

“We didn’t get to choose the last one. We’re not going to get to choose this one as a voting nation. Morally, why shouldn’t there be a general election?” the BBC radio host asked Conservative M.P. Mark Garnier.  

He replied that it would be healthier for democracy if the conservative party had time to put forward a leader.

“Because democracy requires there to be viable choices. If we, you know, for example, had a general election today with no leader, it wouldn’t really be a viable choice,” he said. “I think what we would probably ask is [for] a bit of time to get ourselves into general election order. And then go to the country.” 

It was the economic agenda of the Truss government, which critics say was tailored to the interests of the country’s financial elite, that led to its speedy downfall. 

A program of income tax cuts for the rich, lower corporate taxes and huge new government borrowing devised by Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng tanked the British currency and sent U.K. markets into meltdown, dragging pensions along with them and forcing the Bank of England to intervene. This in turn added to financial uncertainty in the U.S. markets — themselves experiencing high volatility due to interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. 

“It is clear that parts of our mini-budget went further and faster than markets were expecting. So the way we are delivering our mission right now has to change. We need to act now to reassure the markets of our fiscal discipline,” Truss said last week as she reversed course on her policies. 

Truss’s swift departure, which marks the shortest tenure of a prime minister in British history, raises questions about the institutional soundness of liberal democracies at a time when divisions between the global East and West are rising. 

Those divisions are both military and economic, with NATO supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia and the U.S. rejigging major production pipelines away from China in key industries such as semiconductors. 

Moscow, recognizing a chance to crow over Truss’s demise, relished in the moment.  

Dmitri Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s security council and a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, tweeted “Bye, bye [Liz Truss], congrats to lettuce,” referring to a British-newspaper gimmick that was grading whether the freshness of a head of lettuce would outlast the prime minister. 

The headline in China’s Global Times, considered a mouthpiece for the ruling Communist Party in Beijing, read “‘Shortest-serving’ Truss resigns after failed tax-cut plan, showing old Western democracy ‘cannot solve new problems.’” 

China and Russia often relish political instability and chaos in the West, exploiting it as an opportunity to bash liberal democracies as inferior to their political systems.  

Questions about the strength of democratic systems in the United Kingdom and United States have risen in both countries amid a set of unprecedented challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and the false questioning of the validity of elections raised by former President Trump.  

In the United Kingdom, the challenges have been underlined by the prospect of Conservative Party members electing a third prime minister, while questions in the U.S. have been elevated by one political party winning the popular vote for president in seven of eight elections while securing the White House in just five of those contests.  

“The United States [is] the most anti-majoritarian democracy in the world,” Vanessa Williamson, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Brookings Institution, said in an email to The Hill. “The disproportionate representation of small states in the Senate and the electoral college, for example, are two of the institutions that keep us far away from the ideal of an equal say for all voters.”

Foreign policy experts said it is natural for Beijing and Moscow to seek to cast doubts on the systems of the West.  

Jonathan Katz, director of Democracy Initiatives and a senior fellow with The German Marshall Fund of the United States, said Russia’s view of political instability in the U.K. aids their own priorities and is a potential breeding ground for Russian disinformation operations. 

“The goal of the Russian government, whether it’s in the U.K. or the U.S. or anywhere in Europe, is to create friction internally in countries, impacting the decisionmaking, what we would call bipartisanship, and the U.K. in chaos is a perfect place to push disinformation and disunity internally,” he said.   

“Global economic instability, whether we’re talking about energy or politics, Vladimir Putin thinks that’s in his interest to exploit, and try to create those divisions really, because what they want is disintegration of transatlantic support for Ukraine,” Katz added. 

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby on Thursday said that internal British politics did not come up in a conversation between national security adviser Jake Sullivan and British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace on Wednesday, and that the conversation was focused on Ukraine. 

“It was very much focused on Ukraine — what they’re seeing, what we’re seeing, and the support that each of us are giving to Ukraine, and that’s why that was so prominent in our anodyne read out,” he said, referring to the White House summary of the meeting. 

Katz said the turmoil in the U.K. is a real issue for the West to be concerned about when it comes to Ukraine. 

“Political turmoil has an impact on governments’ ability to function and to react to things that are needed, whether it’s domestic or international in the case of Ukraine,” said Katz.  

“Any time you have any of these key partners of Ukraine, and of the transatlantic community, going through a difficult political crisis, it can certainly have an impact on that country’s ability to continue high-level support,” he added. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Pentagon to reimburse service members for abortion travel

The Pentagon will reimburse service members who need to travel to obtain an abortion, the department announced Thursday, a move that’s aimed at helping soldiers or their family members stationed in states where the procedure is no longer allowed. 

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a memo said the travel requirements of being in the military should not impact a person’s access to reproductive care. As a result, the department will provide leave and reimburse travel and transportation expenses for service members and their dependents.

“Since the Supreme Court’s decision [to overturn Roe v. Wade], we have heard concerns from many of our Service members and their families about the complexity and the uncertainty that they now face in accessing reproductive health care, including abortion services,” Austin said in the order.

The cost of the procedure itself will not be covered.

“The practical effects of recent changes are that significant numbers of Service members and their families may be forced to travel greater distances, take more time off from work, and pay more out of pocket expenses to receive reproductive health care,” Austin wrote.

 “In my judgment, such effects qualify as unusual, extraordinary, hardship, or emergency circumstances for Service members and their dependents and will interfere with our ability to recruit, retain, and maintain the readiness of a highly qualified force,” he wrote.

Military providers on-base can’t perform abortions, and military health insurance doesn’t cover abortion, even if it’s obtained from a private sector doctor. The Hyde amendment prohibits federal funding being used for abortions except in the case of rape, incest or threat to the pregnant person’s life.

The memo lays out new privacy protections for service members, and also directs the Pentagon to establish protections for military providers so they won’t face criminal or civil liability from state officials, or risk losing their licenses, for performing official duties. The department will also work to develop a program to reimburse applicable fees for Pentagon health care providers who wish to become licensed in a different state to prevent that from happening.

The memo stated that all actions will be completed no later than the end of this calendar year, “to the maximum extent possible.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Barrett denies emergency bid to block Biden's student debt forgiveness plan

Justice Amy Coney Barrett on Thursday denied an emergency bid by a group of Wisconsin taxpayers to block the Biden administration’s student loan forgiveness program.

Barrett, who handles emergency matters arising from Wisconsin, appeared to act alone in denying the request, rather than refer the matter to the full court. A spokesperson for the Supreme Court did not immediately respond when asked for clarification.

The brief, one-line order comes after the Brown County Taxpayers Association on Wednesday urged the court to rule that the president’s nationwide debt cancellation plan illegally encroaches on Congress’s exclusive spending power. 

Developing

Source: TEST FEED1

Appeals court denies Graham bid to block testimony in Georgia election probe

A federal appeals court on Thursday denied a request by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) to be shielded from testifying in an investigation into former President Trump’s alleged interference in the 2020 election in Georgia.

The unanimous ruling by a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit comes after the senator earlier this month urged the court to find that constitutional protections for lawmakers bars his testimony before a Fulton County, Ga., special grand jury.

Developing

Source: TEST FEED1

White House says Iranian troops on the ground in Crimea aiding Russian drone strikes

The White House on Thursday confirmed that Russia is attacking Ukraine with Iranian drones launched from the occupied Crimean Peninsula with on-the-ground assistance from military trainers from Iran.

National Security spokesperson John Kirby further raised concern that Russia will seek to acquire advanced conventional weapons from Tehran as it faces military supply shortages under pressure from Western sanctions. 

“We can confirm that Russia’s military personnel that are based in Crimea have been piloting Iranian UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles], using them to conduct strikes across Ukraine, including strikes against Kyiv in just recent days. We assess that Iranian military personnel on the ground in Crimea assisted Russia in these operations,” Kirby said.

“There’s extensive proof of their use by Russia against both military and civilian targets [in Ukraine], yet both Iran and Russia continue to lie about it.” 

Kirby said that the U.S. cannot offer exact numbers on how many Iranians are in Crimea, adding that it’s a “relatively small number” but that they are providing tech support while the Russians pilot the UAVs for attacks. 

“Russia has received dozens of UAVs so far, and will likely continue to receive additional shipments in the future,” he said.

He added that the administration is exploring “new sanctions” and that the Department of Defense is “looking actively” at potential air defense solutions for the Ukrainians.

Russian attacks with Iranian so-called kamikaze drones have terrorized Ukraine over the past two weeks, with civilian casualties and civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings, energy and water supplies, destroyed by the explosive-laden drones.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pleaded for supporting countries to send more air defense systems immediately.

The U.S. and NATO said they are working to quickly send more air defenses and anti-drone technology to Ukraine, while other air defense systems from Spain and Germany are said to have recently arrived.

But the Ukrainians have pleaded for more, in particular to Israel for its Iron Dome missile defense system, which is considered one of the most successful air defense systems at targeting indiscriminate fire. 

Israel has rejected sharing the Iron Dome, a decision that Kirby said was their “sovereign” right. 

He said the Pentagon is “looking hard at what what’s in the realm of the possible,” for air defenses for Ukraine, “including, as I said earlier, what could be possible from allies and partners.”

Source: TEST FEED1