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Cortez Masto, Laxalt in virtual dead heat in Nevada Senate race: poll

A new poll released on Thursday shows a dead heat between Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Republican candidate Adam Laxalt in the Nevada Senate race less than three weeks before Election Day.

A CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey found that Laxalt received support from 49 percent of likely voters compared to Cortez Masto with 48 percent. The results are well within the margin of error, leaving the candidates essentially tied.

The survey also found respondents split on whether they believed the Cortez Masto’s policies had hurt Nevadans (43 percent) or helped Nevadans (42 percent.) A separate 15 percent said they did not have much of an effect. 

The Nevada Senate race is among the most important in the country. If Republicans win the seat and hold on to the other seats they now occupy, they’d have 51 seats and a majority.

Among the issues that respondents called very important issues, the economy received the highest percentage at 84 percent, followed by inflation at 82 percent, crime at 69 percent, immigration at 60 percent, election issues at 58 percent and gun policy at 56 percent.

That polling likely complicates the political environment for Democrats who have sought to focus in on abortion as one of the key midterm issues. The issue of abortion in Nevada is unique in that abortion is legal in the state up to 24 weeks after a pregnancy.

The CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted between Oct. 14 and Oct.19 with 1,057 registered voters surveyed. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Democrats flock to New Hampshire in 2024 shadow primary

Potential Democratic presidential hopefuls are traveling to New Hampshire with striking frequency, campaigning for midterm candidates while introducing themselves to voters in the first-in-the-nation primary state.

It’s a sign that just weeks before Election Day, the 2024 campaign cycle is already underway.

While most Democrats are there as surrogates, the roster includes some of the same names who ran for president in 2020, jumpstarting the conversation about what the next few years could look like if President Biden doesn’t seek a second White House term.

“There are three categories of visitors to New Hampshire right now on the Democratic side,” said Jim Demers, veteran Democratic operative in the state who worked on former President Obama’s and Sen. Cory Booker’s (D-N.J.) national campaigns. 

“There are those who are just the good friends who are coming here because they’ve got relationships with our candidates and relationships with people,” he said. “There’s another group that maybe are of the generation where they feel like, ‘Even if I don’t do something in 2024, it’s a great investment in the future in 2028.’ … And there’s a group that are like, ‘I’m not going to run against Joe Biden,’ but if for some reason Joe Biden actually says, ‘I’ve decided not to run,’ they don’t want to be completely caught flatfooted.”

“I think all three approaches are good strategies for New Hampshire,” Demers said. “It’s a chance for friends and potential future candidates to make relationships here, which are key because our campaigns are so personal.”

For now, the state’s battleground Senate and House races are compelling reasons to make the trip. 

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) is competing against Don Bolduc, a retired general, in one of the map’s most consequential contests for control of the upper chamber.

Hassan is favored in the race. She’s led Bolduc consistently in polls, and state and national Democrats were relieved when Bolduc won the Republican nomination against a more moderate candidate. The closer the GOP nominee is to former President Trump and his claims of election fraud — which Bolduc first embraced before changing his mind — the easier it will be for Democrats to win that race, many in the party believe.

But they aren’t taking it for granted. Some of Hassan’s closest allies have traveled from Washington to help her out.

Last week, former Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) — a self-proclaimed Granite State newbie — expressed excitement about touching down in the fall.

“First ever visit to New Hampshire and I made sure to take a short break from campaigning for my friend [Hassan] to enjoy some amazing New England Clam Chowder and a lobster roll!” Jones tweeted, along with a photo displaying his big grin.

The trip caught the attention of some national campaign strategists, who see his move as both helpful to the party and potentially handy for his own prospects. 

“I do like Doug Jones going up there,” said Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist who lived in various parts of the state and worked on both Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaigns in the state. “But he isn’t in an official position. … So he can do whatever the f— he wants.”

A pair of senators from two of Democrats’ top swing states, Jon Ossoff of Georgia and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, have also stumped there to help keep the Senate majority intact. While Ossoff and Baldwin are just two of the party’s Senate members to have visited — Booker and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) have also paid visits — their presence has not gone unnoticed. Some believe it gives them a way to conveniently meet voters, even as Biden has pledged to run again. The groundwork can be laid in advance, the thinking goes, irrespective of whether they actually mount White House bids. 

The same goes for Buttigieg, who came in second place in the New Hampshire primary during his first stab at the presidency two years ago and is already seen as a local favorite among some Democrats.

“It’s hard to divide national leaders versus potential candidates,” said Ray Buckley, the longtime chairman of New Hampshire’s Democratic Party. “Who knows the line.”

So far, two of the highest-profile former presidential contenders with deep ties to New Hampshire’s neighboring states, Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), have avoided it. Sanders won the early primary twice, in 2016 and 2020, while Warren came in several places lower in 2020 but spent a considerable amount of time hosting town halls and courting voters on the ground. Democrats believe both might be considering future runs. 

Sanders is notably heading to several other battlegrounds in the last three weeks before the midterms, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, but for now has left New Hampshire off his list. 

“Consultants are telling these folks, ‘Go, it’ll get news coverage and maybe set you up for the next presidential.’ And they listen,” Ceraso said. “And then they deny it’s about wanting to be president.”

On the House side, Democrats are competing in two races that will help shape the control and ideology of the lower chamber. While many in the party expect the House to be lost to the GOP — with Republicans gaining momentum in recent weeks — there’s a belief that mostly moderate Democrats can still win in some key districts and define the narrative of what a good strategy for swing areas can look like.

That’s the hope for Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), who is competing against Gen Z challenger Karoline Leavitt (R). Pappas is seen as a centrist like Hassan, while Leavitt is a staunch Trump supporter personally aligned with the former president. 

Several of Pappas’s congressional colleagues have visited his home state. 

Two leading anti-Trump crusaders in Congress, Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, made his second trip in recent years to promote his book, while Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who also wrote a book based on the Trump era, was there over the summer. Both visited Concord, the state’s capital.

A third congressman, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), has his own book out, but it’s notably different in nature. It looks at the role of tech and its influence on the job market, which he believes should expand well beyond his area of Silicon Valley to the rest of the country. 

Khanna, the most progressive of the House members, has been on a quest to promote that economic message, as he sees critical mistakes being made that hurt working families. 

As Democrats and Republicans alike look to things like the price of gas and inflation affecting the possible outcome of the midterms, Khanna is hoping to resonate in places like New Hampshire, where he’s already been several times.

“It’s tricky,” said Cullen Tiernan, a former delegate for Sanders based in Concord. “If they’re pushing a book and thereby building name ID on their own right, I’d say they’re thinking of running. But that still does not mean 2024.”

“Let’s see who the first people are to show up here after Nov. 8,” he said.

Source: TEST FEED1

How Gordon Sondland went from hotelier to ambassador to central impeachment figure

Former Ambassador Gordon Sondland was standing with former President Trump in August 2019, waiting for the president of Romania to arrive for a meeting when Trump pulled out a container of Tic Tacs and ate a few.

“What the f—, aren’t you going to share?” Sondland recalls asking him, prompting Trump to give Sondland a few of the mints.

“When you call him out on not acting like a normal person, it catches him off guard—and then he kind of likes it. People do it too infrequently,” Sondland writes in his upcoming book, “The Envoy: Mastering the Art of Diplomacy with Trump and the World,” which The Hill obtained a copy of before its release next week.

Sondland, who spent roughly two years serving as Trump’s ambassador to the European Union, is best known for his testimony in the House’s first impeachment of Trump in 2019 over allegations the former president withheld aid to Ukraine as he pushed for an investigation into Joe Biden and his son, Hunter.

His book separately offers an assessment of how he was able to successfully work with Trump, a man with no previous political experience, despite having no prior experience in the foreign service.

“I certainly think Trump treated me differently because I was also a successful hotelier, but it’s not just my place in business that won his respect,” Sondland writes.

“It’s an attitude that you have to have with him in order to survive. None of the politicians in office, from Ted Cruz to Josh Hawley to [Marjorie] Taylor Greene to Tom Cotton, know how to adopt this approach,” Sondland continues. “They’re sycophants who built careers on dissembling and playing roles that aren’t authentic. That’s not the way to get things done when it comes to a guy like Trump.”

Sondland’s new book focuses on how he went from being a hotelier, to a $1 million donor to the Trump inauguration, to ambassador to the European Union, to central figure in an impeachment investigation, to being fired by the former president for his testimony.

In the book, Sondland discusses how he believes his lack of government experience made him an effective diplomat and better able to communicate with Trump, a fellow businessman. 

Sondland describes another episode in which Trump bemoans to German business leaders that the seats in German automobiles come with too many knobs and buttons. When Trump asks Sondland how the meeting went, Sondland responds, “It went great until you started in on the seats.”

“He looks at me and grimaces. ‘What the f— do you know, Sondland? Get out of here,’” Sondland writes. “I turn and leave the Oval Office, smiling.”

In an interview, Sondland said a major theme of the book focuses on how political appointees can actually be more effective than career foreign service officials who steadily rise through the ranks to become an ambassador.

Sondland argued that, if properly vetted, political appointees like himself can do what others can’t by aggressively moving a president’s agenda forward when time is a major constraint for all administrations. He also noted that political appointees like himself aren’t dependent on the government job for their careers, and therefore are more willing to take risks.

“Here’s my take: many who disdain political appointees say that a career-groomed Georgetown foreign service graduate is more qualified to hold the position of chief of mission than the head of a hedge fund who knows relatively little about foreign policy but knows how to manage people and make and close deals,” Sondland writes in the book. “The former has subject matter expertise, but the latter understands business, knows how to negotiate, knows how to get things done, and has access to the commander-in-chief. Who do you want running the embassy?”

Sondland writes that he felt a sense of kinship with Trump, who also ran hotels as part of his business empire, and that the two were able to communicate more easily that way.

Sondland, in his book and in an interview, spoke highly of Trump’s accomplishments on the economy, on shifting international focus to China, and on recalibrating the trade deals between the U.S. and the EU.

Sondland’s experience has only become more relevant with war breaking out in Europe after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. The former ambassador said the Biden administration has done a “laudable job” in providing support to Ukraine. But he suggested Trump’s skill set and willingness to bluntly confront other leaders might have prevented the invasion in the first place.

Trump, Sondland argued, has “permanently changed” the way foreign policy is conducted by exposing the reality that many relationships are transactional, and that it’s better to acknowledge that up front. Trump also normalized informal calls directly between leaders, Sondland said, something he expects to continue in place of calls that are prefaced by months of prep work.

Ultimately, though, Sondland will likely be remembered by much of the nation as the figure in the first Trump impeachment inquiry who acknowledged there was a “quid pro quo” at play when Trump held up aid to Ukraine while pushing for an investigation into the Biden family.

Roughly three years after his testimony, Sondland writes that he merely sought to tell the truth in a highly polarized environment where Democrats wanted him to implicate Trump and Republicans wanted him to exonerate the president.

He expresses frustration over the toll the ordeal took on him and his family, but ultimately downplays the significance of the phrase at the center of his testimony and the whole first impeachment saga.

“Yes, I’m the quid pro quo guy, but you know what? Everything in life is some kind of a quid pro quo,” Sondland writes. “The fact is that when you give someone something—time, affection, devotion, money, loyalty—you expect something in return. It’s how diplomacy works. It’s how life works.”

Source: TEST FEED1

The Hill's Morning Report — Biden, Obama and Sanders hit the road

At their most useful, political surrogates raise a ton of money, have enough star power to fill a room and can lay out the stakes in ways that turn wishy-washy citizens into actual voters.

President Biden wants to be helpful in Philadelphia this afternoon for Senate candidate John Fetterman (D), Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor, who is being challenged by Republican political newcomer Mehmet Oz, a TV doctor. A few weeks ago, Fetterman wasn’t sure he needed to share a stage with Biden, whose iffy job approval numbers give Democratic candidates heartburn.

But the Pennsylvania Senate race has tightened. Biden defeated former President Trump by a narrow margin there two years ago and likes to draw on his bona fides as a Scranton native. While avoiding a big rally, he aims to outline what Fetterman could bring to the high-stakes Senate next year.

Fetterman’s continuing recovery from a stroke in May also captured Biden’s attention and his empathy. Biden survived two life-threatening brain aneurysms in 1988 and went on to serve as a Delaware senator, vice president and after his third try, became his party’s victorious candidate for the nation’s top job.

Amid questions about Fetterman’s health, Biden thinks the lieutenant governor “is very much capable” of serving in the Senate, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Monday (The Hill). The candidate’s primary care physician said in a statement that his patient has “no work restrictions and can work full duty in public office” (The Hill).

Biden, who says he intends to run for reelection if his own health is good, will also appear today at the site of a collapsed Pittsburgh bridge to champion bipartisan federal infrastructure investments enacted on his watch (The Hill).

Former President Obama, a celebrity with the Democratic base, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the darling of progressives and younger voters, also will hit the trail in key states to mobilize voters.

Some party stalwarts worry that Obama got a late start. “I think a lot of people have said, `Where’s Obama?’” a Democratic strategist told The Hill’s Amie Parnes. “He shouldn’t just be the closer. He’s still seen as the party’s rock star.” Obama headlined four fundraising events in August and September and recorded TV and radio spots that voters will soon see and hear. 

He will be in Georgia on Oct. 28 and in Michigan and Wisconsin on Oct. 29. Obama, who won Nevada decisively in 2008 and 2012, will also be in Las Vegas on Nov. 1 to stump for Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D), who is running neck and neck against Republican challenger Adam Laxalt in a state that seemingly leans more Republican with each election cycle (The Hill).

The Hill: Democrats hope polls are wrong in Nevada — and that it will help them. 

Sanders, who worries that Democratic turnout among working-class voters will fall short, plans to campaign for candidates in eight states during 19 events beginning in Oregon on Oct. 27. He’ll be in California, Nevada (with events in both Reno and Las Vegas), Texas (including one in McAllen) and Orlando. Sanders’ second weekend on the hustings will focus on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (The New York Times). Some moderate Democrats fret that his campaigning in swing states could backfire because GOP candidates point to the Vermont Independent as a symbol of left-wing extremism.

Pull Quote In Bold Here “I am a little bit concerned that the energy level for young people, working-class people” is not as high as it should be, Sanders told the Times. “And I want to see what I can do about that.”

▪ The Hill: These third-party candidates could have a big impact on the midterms. 

▪ Roll Call: Is Ohio part of the Senate battleground?

Related Articles

▪ The Hill: GOP leaders McConnell, McCarthy headed for collision on Ukraine aid. 

▪ Reuters: Pro-Trump conspiracy theorists hound election officials out of office.

▪ Washington Monthly: Not all redistricting commissions are created equal. 

LEADING THE DAY

➤ INVESTIGATIONS

A California-based federal judge on Wednesday said records submitted by former President Trump and his allies to the court indicate that they knew their allegations of widespread voter fraud in Georgia were baseless while pushing false claims in legal submissions and in public.

The judge ordered John Eastman, a legal adviser to Trump, to turn over the records to the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol.

The judge determined the communications were not protected since they were likely exchanged in furtherance of a crime, writes The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch. 

“The emails show that President Trump knew that the specific numbers of voter fraud were wrong but continued to tout those numbers, both in court and to the public,” wrote Judge David Carter. “The Court finds that these emails are sufficiently related to and in furtherance of a conspiracy to defraud the United States.”

Of the 33 documents the judge ordered Eastman to hand over to the House panel, eight are related to crimes of obstructing an official proceeding and conspiracy to defraud the United States, the judge said. He previously found in March that it was more likely than not that Trump committed crimes as part of his plot to stay in power (The Washington Post).

Bloomberg News: Trump prosecutors at the Justice Department may head for an obstruction case against the former president in 2023. A decision will be up to Attorney General Merrick Garland after a review of all evidence.

The Hill’s Max Greenwood details six ways Trump has significantly changed the GOP, including turning the party against the mainstream media, sparking opposition to institutions and fueling skepticism in the country’s elections.

The Washington Post: Trump deposed at Mar-a-Lago in case brought by sexual assault accuser E. Jean Carroll.

In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has agreed to release records by Dec. 1 related to the state’s migrant flights from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard, Mass., financed with public funds. As Politico reports, “Florida is using interest earned off the billions in COVID-19 relief aid provided by Congress to pay to relocate migrants from Florida to other states.”

DeSantis has pledged that the migrant flights will continue, despite multiple legal challenges to the program, which has been criticized by Democrats for being a political stunt (Business Insider).

💰 A Wall Street Journal investigation found that federal officials traded stocks at higher-than-normal rates in the first months of the pandemic, often coinciding with plunging markets.

A deputy at the National Institutes of Health “reported 10 sales of mutual funds and stocks totaling between $157,000 and $480,000 that month,” the Journal reports. “Collectively, officials at another health agency, Health and Human Services, reported 60 percent more sales of stocks and funds in January than the average over the previous 12 months, driven by a handful of particularly active traders.”

Federal employees cannot work on matters in which they have a significant financial stake, trade on confidential information learned on the job or take any official action that creates an appearance of a conflict of interest.

The New Yorker, Jane Mayer: In one of the most momentous cases that the Supreme Court is considering this term, conservative stalwart J. Michael Luttig is opposing far-right legal theory that could subvert American democracy.

➤ ADMINISTRATION & ECONOMY

Biden on Wednesday announced the release through December of a planned 15 million barrels of oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to try to lower gasoline prices (Reuters). The nationwide average pump price on Wednesday was $3.85 per gallon (AAA) as the president said of prices, “They’re not falling fast enough.” 

Biden took direct aim at U.S. producers, urging them to pass some of their revenues to consumers during a period of inflationary pressures. “My message to oil companies is: `You’re sitting on record profits, and you’re — and we’re giving you more certainty. So you can act now to increase oil production.’”

Biden denied his initiative is aimed at wooing voters ahead of the midterm elections, adding that the administration will refill U.S. petroleum reserves at a future price of $70 per barrel to maintain security, encourage oil production and support market stability (The New York Times). 

NPR: Biden is releasing 15 million barrels from the strategic oil reserve to tame prices.

High inflation could lower tax rates for many American filers in 2023, the Internal Revenue Service announced Wednesday. The adjustments will apply to the 2023 tax year, for which returns will generally be filed in 2024.

To ward off “bracket creep,” when salary increases aimed at accounting for a higher cost of living end up pushing taxpayers into higher tax brackets, the IRS will be shifting tax brackets and adjusting the standard deduction.

The standard deduction will increase by $1,800 for married couples filing jointly, by $1,400 for heads of households and by $900 for single taxpayers and married taxpayers filing separately (The Hill and NPR).

▪ The Hill’s Tobias Burns breaks down five things to know about the change in taxes. 

▪ Bloomberg News: Inflation forces over half of Americans to consider second jobs.

▪ CNBC: The typical U.S. household is spending $445 more a month due to inflation. Here’s how to reduce the bite.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL

President Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday that Russia would impose martial law in the four regions of Ukraine he illegally claimed to have annexed last month.

Ukrainian officials said Putin’s order would not deter their efforts to retake occupied territory, but warned there could be mass deportation of Ukrainians out of the occupied regions, and harsher treatment for those that remain. Experts said the order could be a “back door” to pull more of Russian society into the war effort, which would strengthen Putin’s footing for future offensives but weaken his claim that the “special military operation” in Ukraine is not a full-fledged war (The Hill). 

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told “CBS Mornings” on Wednesday that the Biden administration will continue supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

“We are going to do everything we can, as we have now for going on eight months, to make sure that the Ukrainian armed forces have what they need in the field,” he said.  “We’re going to stay at this. You’ve heard the president talk about that. As long as it takes. We’re committed to that.”

▪ Reuters: Ukrainian forces push toward Kherson, Kyiv orders electricity curbs.

▪ The Washington Post: U.S. and Ukraine create joint task force for reconstruction.

▪ Reuters and The Seattle Times/AP: The European Union, which remains divided over a proposed cap on natural gas prices, begins a two-day summit on energy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is urging cohesion.

▪ Bloomberg News: U.S. calls for Security Council briefing on Russia, Iranian drones.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military on Monday intercepted two Russian bombers near Alaska. The recent activity is “not seen as a threat nor is the activity seen as provocative,” North American Aerospace Defense Command noted in its press release (The Hill).

In Great Britain, the home secretary resigned on Wednesday. She served for 43 days. Suella Braverman, a Conservative Party right-winger, was reportedly fired by Prime Minister Liz Truss for sending an official document to a fellow lawmaker from her personal email, which constituted a security breach. 

Braverman’s resignation follows weeks of controversy in Truss’s government over a proposed economic plan and tax overhaul that were subsequently walked back and overhauled. Truss’s political future is in question as she faces pushback from opposition leaders as well as her own party (The Guardian and The New York Times).

“I’m a fighter and not a quitter,” Truss told Parliament on Wednesday.

➤ STATE WATCH

A New York gun control law that prohibits firearms in Times Square, Yankee Stadium, the subway and other sensitive places is on shaky legal ground after a judge found these provisions violate the Second Amendment, with the case on appeal now, writes The Hill’s John Kruzel. The ongoing court battle over the New York law is part of the shifting legal landscape resulting from a 6-3 Supreme Court ruling in June that expanded the Second Amendment, which has already blocked or struck down gun control laws at a dizzying pace. 

Vox: In their quest to shore up power, four Latino leaders managed to set back the city’s multiracial progress, and Latino representation, local activists argue. The Los Angeles City Council’s racist recording scandal, explained.

OPINION

■ Ohio’s Rep. Tim Ryan, with a glass of wine, rebrands the Democrats, by E.J. Dionne Jr., columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3seUwVu 

■ Vladimir Putin’s guide to alienating allies, by Clara Ferreira Marques, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3CPt71x

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets at 11 a.m. on Friday for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14. ​​

The Senate convenes at 9 a.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14. 

The president will use a collapsed Pittsburgh bridge as a backdrop for a speech at 2:15 p.m. about federal investments in infrastructure. He’ll fly to Philadelphia to headline a political event at 7 p.m. for Senate candidate Fetterman. Biden will return to the White House at 9:15 p.m.

🎂 Vice President Harris celebrates her 58th birthday! She has no events on her public schedule.

Economic indicator: The Labor Department reports at 8:30 a.m. on filings for unemployment benefits in the week ending Oct. 15.

ELSEWHERE

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday authorized Novavax COVID-19 boosters for adults, including those who received Pfizer, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson shots as their primary series.

The Food and Drug Administration said people aged 18 and older can receive Novavax as their third dose six months after completion of the primary series of COVID-19 vaccinations (The Hill and CNBC).

NBC News: Omicron subvariants reflect a “viral evolution on steroids.” The new subvariant BA.4.6 can cause reinfections, posing a threat to vaccinated individuals and those previously infected, according to a study published Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine. A slew of other subvariants on the horizon may do the same. 

Boston University COVID-19 experiments are under investigation by the National Institutes of Health, the agency said, after scientists at the university tested strains of COVID-19 virus they created by combining the ancestral and omicron variants.

Federal authorities are looking into whether the researchers should have sought their permission before undertaking experiments that could lead to “gain of function” in the coronavirus, meaning it could add enhanced or new abilities, seen as “inherently risky”  for virology research (CBS News).

After two years and one of the most intensive public-health campaigns in human history, we know this much about the potentially life-altering perils of long COVID: The chronic condition may arise in 4 percent of cases, or 15 percent, or 48 percent. As The Hill’s Daniel de Visé writes, the little-understood condition can present a bewildering array of symptoms, most of which overlap with any number of other illnesses and chronic conditions. Vaccinations and weaker variants may reduce the odds of Long COVID — or maybe not.  

The Washington Post: White Americans are now more likely to die from COVID-19 than Black Americans: Why the pandemic shifted.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,066,584. Current average U.S. COVID-19 daily deaths are 323, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

THE CLOSER

Take Our Morning Report Quiz

And finally … 🎃 👻 It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! Alert to the worldwide overabundance of ghouls and monsters, we’re eager for some smart guesses about Halloween headlines and some White House history.

Email your responses to asimendinger@thehill.com and/or kkarisch@thehill.com, and please add “Quiz” to subject lines. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

The Top 10 most popular Halloween costumes in 2022, according to Google Trends “most searched” list, as reported this week by news outlets, includes ______?

1. Cheerleader
2. Witch
3. Spider-Man
4. All of the above

Actress Jamie Lee Curtis recently spoke to The New York Times about her final film in a long-running horror franchise. What’s the title of that new movie?

1. “Scream 4”
2. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
3. “Laurie’s Last Stand”
4. “Halloween Ends”

Which former first lady was, well, first to decorate the White House for Halloween?

1. Mamie Eisenhower, 1958
2. Jacqueline Kennedy, 1962
3. Nancy Reagan, 1982
4. Melania Trump, 2018

The evil inflation monster attacked Halloween candy this season. Prices are up by what percent since 2021’s trick or treat holiday, according to the latest Labor Department data and this week’s news accounts?

1. 5 percent
2. 13.1 percent
3. 15 percent
4. 100 percent

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

Democrats grumble it’s too little, too late with Obama

When aides to Barack Obama announced the former president’s schedule for the midterm elections late last week, some Democrats were already grumbling. 

For weeks, Democrats had been wondering where Obama was ahead of a midterm fight where the party is clinging to the slimmest of majorities in the House and Senate.

President Biden is widely seen as a drag on the party’s fortunes this cycle as he battles dismal approval ratings. With some candidates not wanting Biden to attend rallies in their states and districts, the absence of Obama’s star power has been notable.

Obama did attend four fundraisers in August and September to raise money for candidates, but some Democrats say that’s not enough given his standing and ability to draw a crowd.

“I think a lot of people have said, ‘Where’s Obama?’” one Democratic strategist acknowledged. “He shouldn’t just be the closer. He’s still seen as the party’s rock star.”

In interviews, other strategists and donors reiterated the sentiment that Obama should be out there more to help the party.

With less than three weeks to go until the election, polls suggest Republicans have seized back the momentum from Democrats.

A CBS News-YouGov survey showed Democrats trailing Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, while a New York Times-Siena College poll released this week found voters were more likely to vote Republican by a 49 to 45 percent margin. That’s a shift from when Democrats held a 1-point advantage over the summer.

“I think it’s foolish to leave things to the end,” one strategist said of the use of Obama.  

Democratic strategist Eddie Vale agreed that Obama “is coming in late in the cycle,” though he said it is both not unusual and not a major problem.

Vale argued it “shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone” that Obama is only showing up on the campaign trail now.

“They believe, correctly in my view, that if he’s out there doing events all of the time, it dilutes the attention it gets from voters and reporters so it’s best to save it for the big get out the vote push at the end,” he said. 

Sources close to Obama say the former president is actively involved in helping Democrats in a variety of ways.  

On Wednesday, Obama’s team announced that they were adding another stop to his midterm tour in Nevada, where he is expected to join an early vote rally on Nov. 1. The rally comes on the heels of previously announced stops in Atlanta, Detroit and Milwaukee. 

Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin are home to three of the races likely to determine the next Senate majority. Georgia, Nevada and Michigan are also the settings for three major gubernatorial races.

“Given the high stakes of this year’s midterm elections, President Obama wants to do his part to help Democrats win next month,” said Hanna Hankins, who serves as communications director to the former president. “This is why he headlined four finance events in recent months for the key campaign committees and will campaign in targeted states as part of the Democrats final GOTV stretch. 

“He looks forward to stumping for candidates up and down the ballot, especially in races and states that will have consequences for the administration of the 2024 elections,” Hankins added. 

The former president also released a 45-second video aimed at getting out the vote and warning about the consequences of staying home. It’s the latest video in a string of more than 20 spots that the former president has recorded this election cycle, including for candidates such as Steve Sisolak and Sen. Maggie Hassan, who are running in gubernatorial races in Nevada and New Hampshire, respectively. 

“Election Day is right around the corner, and I want to be clear about what’s at stake,” Obama says in the video released on Wednesday. “Our fundamental rights are on the ballot, especially women’s reproductive rights.” 

“The good news is that we have the power to forge a different future,” he added. “… So don’t sit this election out.”

Obama’s presence at rallies can help with a crowd, but they don’t always lead to success at the ballot box.

Obama won elections when he was on the ballot in 2008 and 2012, but his appearances at campaign rallies didn’t prevent Democrats from suffering midterm losses in 2010 and 2014. In 2016, he was a surrogate for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, who lost to Republican former President Trump even as she won the nation’s popular vote.

In 2010, amid a backlash to his stewardship over a recession and congressional passage of the Affordable Care Act, Republicans trounced Obama’s party, picking up 63 seats, one of the biggest gains in decades.

“People forget that it’s not so easy for him or anyone really these days with some of these races being so polarized,” a second Democratic strategist said. “People forget it was often Joe Biden who had to go out to these purple districts because Obama wasn’t exactly welcomed there.” 

Still, one longtime strategist who has worked alongside Obama said the former president, almost more than any other surrogate, has the ability to help with key constituencies, including independents and Black voters. 

“I think it probably helps Mandela Barnes as an African American candidate to have Obama in his state,” the strategist said of the Democratic Senate candidate in Wisconsin. “It will help him turn out Black voters and consolidate the Black vote, which Barnes has been struggling to do.” 

“I think [Obama] is being used in the right places right now and can be effective in this moment,” the strategist added.  

Source: TEST FEED1

GOP leaders McConnell, McCarthy headed for collision on Ukraine aid

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) are headed for a collision next year on spending more money to help Ukraine.

McConnell has led Republican support for sending generous military and financial aid to Kyiv, warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin could threaten Poland and other European allies if not stopped in Ukraine.  

McCarthy, who would become Speaker if Republicans win control of the House, is putting the brakes on more Ukraine aid, warning this week there won’t be a “blank check” from a GOP majority. 

McConnell took an unannounced trip to Ukraine in May to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He said he hoped that “not many members of my party will choose to politicize this issue,” also highlighting that House Republicans voted for a $40 billion Ukraine package that month.  

But House Republican support for the war in Ukraine is eroding as the war drags on, and experts predict the United States could be headed into a recession next year, which could diminish support for sending tens of billions in additional aid to Ukraine.

It’s the first significant policy difference between he and McConnell that will come into the spotlight after Election Day. Congress will reconvene next month to wrap up the unfinished business of the 117^th Congress.  

Congress last month approved $12.3 billion in military and economic aid for Ukraine as part of a stopgap spending measure. McConnell voted for it and McCarthy voted no, as did the vast majority of the House Republican conference.  

Senate aides say they expect the year-end omnibus spending package to include more money for Ukraine and speculate that President Biden may ask for a large amount for Ukraine to cover what may be months of legislative gridlock in the House next year.  

McCarthy will still be in the minority in the lame-duck session but he will have much more leverage over spending bills if he becomes Speaker. He may refuse to put bills on the House floor next year that don’t have support from a majority of his conference.  

“I would imagine that there would be significant tension because McConnell certainly is not going to shy away from continuing to support Ukraine,” said a Senate Republican aide.  

“One way to solve this is to put a huge slug of money in [the omnibus spending package] in December,” the aide added.

But the GOP source said that McConnell and McCarthy could work out a deal next year on Ukraine money by demanding that Democrats agree to more oversight on military and economic aid to Ukraine.  

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) held up a Ukraine assistance bill earlier this year in an attempt to add a language setting up a special inspector general to monitor the spending. That idea could get more traction if Republicans control the House.  

The tension between the GOP leaders also point to a wider split. While a number of prominent GOP figures, including Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and former Vice President Mike Pence, have pushed back on McCarthy’s skepticism, his comments echoed concerns voiced by former President Trump and his allies in the House.

In an interview published Tuesday, McCarthy told Punchbowl News: “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine.” 

His statement caused an immediate uproar among some national-security minded Republicans, Cheney blasting the idea that House conservatives would hold up more aid to Ukraine as “disgraceful.”  

“I don’t know that I can say I was surprised but I think it’s really disgraceful that Minority Leader McCarthy suggested that if the Republicans get the majority back that we will not continue to provide support to Ukrainians,” she said at an event hosted by the Harvard Institute of Politics.  

Former Vice President Mike Pence also pushed back against House Republican opposition to future Ukraine aid bills, telling an audience at the Heritage Foundation: “We must continue to provide Ukraine with the resources to defend themselves.”  

McConnell stayed silent on the subject Wednesday, taking a cautious approach less than three weeks before Election Day, when he will need Republicans voters across the ideological spectrum to turn out.  

Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist, said McCarthy is more aligned than McConnell with former President Trump’s America-first brand of foreign policy. 

“McCarthy is saying exactly what the Republican base is saying when it comes to Ukraine and the threat of China,” he said, noting that some conservative Republicans say that money spent on Ukraine detracts attention from China, which they see as a bigger threat.   

“We’re not saying ‘Don’t support Ukraine,’ but we are saying ‘You can’t be having blank checks, billions of dollars going down the hole, weapons you can’t trace, all the while you have a big problem with China,’” O’Connell said.  

He added, “McConnell’s position reflects more the traditional Republican position of [the United States] acting as the global police.”

If Republicans win the House majority, McCarthy could also demand a freeze on spending until they take control of the chamber next year.

Michael E. O’Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research in Foreign Policy at Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank, said “it will be fascinating to watch” the debate over Ukraine assistance play out among Republicans.

He warned that McCarthy needs to be careful so that he doesn’t come across as inadvertently helping Putin.  

“I have a hard time believing that deep down, McCarthy and most Trump Republicans really will want to be seen as the folks that prevent Ukraine from staying afloat as a country,” he wrote in an email to The Hill. “The political perils of actually helping Putin win would be enormous — to say nothing of the ethical downsides.” 

McCarthy softened his stance on Wednesday, telling CNBC in an interview: “I think Ukraine is very important.”  

“I support making sure that we move forward to defeat Russia in that program. But there should be no blank check on anything. We are $31 trillion in debt.”  

Conn Carroll, a former Senate aide who advised conservative Republicans in Congress, said U.S. interests don’t completely overlap with Ukrainian interests and there should be more oversight.  

“U.S.-Ukraine relations overlap a lot but at some point they begin to diverge,” he said, pointing to recent reporting that U.S. intelligence officials believe the Ukrainian government authorized the assassination of Russian citizen Daria Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist.  

“We do need to know how this money is being spent and make sure it’s not supporting assassination attempts, which are not conducive to American national security interests,” said Carroll, who is now the commentary editor at The Washington Examiner.  

O’Hanlon, of Brookings, said House Republicans will put up a fight against more spending for Ukraine if they win back the majority, but are likely to agree at some point next year to more assistance.  

“I do expect the process to get uglier and more contentious if the Republicans win back the House,” he said. “But I really don’t expect the results to be radically different, once the smoke clears and the appropriations bills are written.”  

Source: TEST FEED1

Six ways Trump has changed the GOP

Former President Donald Trump has dramatically reshaped the Republican Party in his own image, leaving marks that have outlived his presidency — and could potentially outlive him.

It’s not unusual for a president, current or former, to hold sway over his party and its voters. But Trump’s impact on the GOP stands out for its breadth; Trump has influenced the party and its members on everything from policy to rhetorical style, as Republican officials and candidates look to recreate the movement that helped propel Trump to the White House six years ago.

Here are five ways Trump has significantly changed the GOP.

He’s turned it more against mainstream media

Trump may not have invented the term “fake news” as he has claimed. But there’s little doubt that he brought it into the GOP’s everyday vernacular.

Republicans have long fueled skepticism in the mainstream media, casting unfriendly news outlets and journalists as liberals with their own political agendas that obscure what they see as the truth. 

But Trump has driven Republican animosity toward the so-called mainstream media to new heights. One former Trump campaign aide described the former president’s influence as fundamentally altering the way Republicans think about the news and the people who report it.

“When Republicans would talk about the ‘liberal media,’ it was about pointing out bias,” the former aide said. “The president, what he did was he took that a step further, right? It’s not just bias. It’s straight-up lies.”

That strategy has reshaped the GOP’s approach to unflattering headlines and news stories, the former aide said. 

“I think there’s a sense now that you don’t have to counter,” the former aide said. “You can more or less ignore this stuff and say it’s all made up.” 

He’s made attacking opponents a signature 

Political attacks are nothing new, but since taking his perch atop the GOP in 2016, countless Republicans have sought to mimic Trump’s penchant for bombastic and vitriolic rhetoric, deploying it against their opponents, but within and outside of their own party.

Trump’s critics have accused him of lowering the political discourse among Republicans by encouraging petty — and very often personal — attacks over substantive policy discussions or principled debates. 

But to many Republicans, Trump has given the party the language and resolve to fight back. Ford O’Connell, a Trump-aligned Republican strategist and former congressional candidate, said that the GOP is now more focused on the “bigger picture”: winning elections at any cost.

“In the past, if someone like Mitt Romney or Todd Akin made a snafu on the stump, the Republicans would let the opposition drag them down,” O’Connell said.

“The No. 1 chief thing that he has given the party is a backbone to fight, not only the Democrats but anyone who wants to bring them down, then not back down when the fear mongering gets turned up to a 10.”

He’s sparked opposition to institutions

Before, during and after his time in the White House, Trump called into question the legitimacy and effectiveness of key institutions — in the government, the media and the world at large.

That willingness to attack what many Americans see as pillars of U.S. democracy and international order has implanted itself firmly into GOP orthodoxy over the years. Republicans routinely rail against “The Swamp” — Trump’s ill-defined term for institutional corruption — and organizations like the FBI and NATO. 

“Let’s take NATO, for example,” O’Connell said. “The theory behind NATO is fantastic. The problem is that it was living on borrowed time and not functioning effectively. And we see the same thing with the FBI.” 

“When it comes to institutions, if you’re not judging the efficiency and the effectiveness of the institutions, then you’re probably not doing your job as an American.” 

In perhaps one of the most lasting examples of Trump’s institutional distrust, the Republican National Committee (RNC) voted earlier this year to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates, an organization that Trump repeatedly hammered as biased against the GOP and its candidates.

For some Republicans, that decision was seen as one of the clearest examples of Trump’s influence over the GOP.

“If you had told me 10 years ago that we simply weren’t going to participate anymore, I’d say you were crazy,” one former Republican campaign adviser said. “But seeing the way [Trump] has shaped things now, I’m surprised it didn’t happen sooner.”

He’s fueled skepticism in the country’s elections

Trump’s efforts to challenge the results of the 2020 presidential election were seen by many as the ultimate taboo; a self-serving campaign to hold onto power at the expense of American democracy.

But that notion has proved to have staying power within the GOP. A New York Times/Siena College poll released over the summer found that 60 percent of Republican voters believe that Trump was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election. Even more recently, a Morning Consult survey showed that only 44 percent of GOP voters have at least some trust in the country’s electoral process.

That trend has played out among GOP lawmakers and candidates, as well. Fueled by Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was “rigged,” Republican governors and state legislators have pushed a swath of new voting laws and restrictions. 

At the same time, several Republican candidates in battleground states have refused to say whether they will accept the results of their own contests.

To be sure, Republicans have long spoken about the need for enhanced “election security,” a subject that helped lead to the proliferation of voter identification laws, mostly in red states. But some Republicans say that Trump helped focus the GOP on deeper issues in the electoral system.

“There have always been problems in the system,” Keith Naughton, a veteran Republican strategist, said. “Nobody wanted to touch it, but it was bubbling beneath the surface and Trump kind of brought it to light. He brought it to the fore, made it possible to discuss it and for people to express what they really thought about it.”

He’s made fealty to him a necessity for party survival

Despite many Republicans’ deep reluctance to embrace Trump during his first successful bid for the White House in 2016, most warmed up to him quickly after he took office. Those who didn’t have largely become persona non grata within the GOP.

Trump has left little room for dissent in the modern Republican Party, forcing its members to make a choice: demonstrate absolute loyalty to him and his agenda or be booted from the party.

One-time Trump critics, like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), have remade themselves into some of the former president’s most ardent defenders and allies. Meanwhile, many of those who broke with him have found themselves politically isolated. 

Take Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) for example. Cheney was one of 10 House Republicans who voted in early 2021 to impeach Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. That vote, combined with her ongoing criticism of the former president, ultimately cost her both her post in House GOP leadership and renomination this year.

The insistence on fealty to Trump is a marked change from the GOP’s approach nearly a decade ago, when the RNC set its sights on creating a big tent party that welcomed conservatives with a range of views. 

And while the former president won’t be around forever, Republicans say that, for now, one thing is clear: The GOP is still Trump’s party.

He altered the GOP’s view of the world

Trump barreled into political career with a promise to put “America first” by reassessing international alliances, rebuilding the country’s domestic manufacturing sector and avoiding “forever wars.”

That approach is now part of Republican orthodoxy, marking a massive shift away from the GOP of former presidents like Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush who embraced international free trade and alliances. 

Critics accuse Trump of seeking to push the U.S. toward isolationism, arguing that his “America first” focus has weakened the country’s international clout and interrupted a steady march toward a more interconnected world.

Trump’s allies, however, say he simply got Republicans to take a fresh look at foreign policy and international trade. 

“He’s changed the entire world view of the Republican Party when it comes to international relations and foreign relations,” O’Connell said. “Maybe we were overextended to begin with and it was hurting our domestic interests.” 

“The idea that that is isolationist is almost insane to say,” he added. “We were doing it wrong before. When you’re acting in the U.S.’s best interests, you’re not being isolationist because our interests are aligned around the world.”

Source: TEST FEED1

What we know and don't know about long COVID

After two years of research and one of the largest public health campaigns in human history, doctors and scientists don’t yet have a test to detect the mysterious affliction called long COVID-19, let alone a head count of the afflicted. 

Based on the latest wave of studies, long COVID-19 may beset 4 percent of the population who catch the virus, or 14.8 percent, or 48 percent. Its toll on the body spans dozens of possible symptoms, from fatigue to chest pains to fuzzy thinking to hair loss. The symptoms overlap with those seen in scores of other illnesses.  

Many long COVID-19 cases clear up after several months or a year. Some seem to be permanent. Only time will tell. 

“What do we mean when we say long COVID? We’re still figuring it out,” said Dr. Josh Fessel, a senior clinical adviser and COVID-19 specialist at the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Along the way, he said, “we’re learning a lot about what recovery looks like after a significant illness.” 

A long COVID-19 study released last week by Scottish researchers raised eyebrows around the globe. Six to 18 months after COVID-19 infection, 48 percent of people surveyed said they had not fully recovered.  

That report is an outlier. The World Health Organization puts the prevalence of long COVID-19 at 10 to 20 percent. Other recent estimates range across the map. An ongoing survey by British health officials, updated in July, found long COVID-19 in only 4 percent of cases. A Canadian government survey, updated this week, found that 14.8 percent of adults with COVID-19 retained symptoms three months after infection. A U.S. government survey, updated this month, found that 30 percent of adults who had the coronavirus believed they had experienced long COVID-19. 

For many Americans, long COVID-19 now looms as a larger worry than acute COVID-19, the first round of disease triggered by the viral invader. Vaccinations and weakening variants have vastly lowered the odds that people without underlying conditions will wind up hospitalized or dead from the acute version of the ailment. 

“People don’t talk about just getting COVID any more,” said Tara Leytham Powell, professor of social work at the University of Illinois. “Long COVID is more of a fear.” 

Ashley Drapeau caught COVID-19 in December 2020. A month later, she said, “it just seemed like it wasn’t getting any better. I was still having shortness of breath. I was having migraines. … Lack of appetite, nausea. It seemed to go on and on.” 

Drapeau took most of 2021 off. Now she’s back at work, running a long COVID-19 program at the George Washington University Center for Integrative Medicine. She’s operating at “about 80 percent.” She has never fully recovered. 

In calculating the prevalence of long COVID-19, researchers struggle to gather basic data. There is no way to conclusively diagnose long COVID-19, so most research relies on self-reported information obtained through surveys. Respondents don’t always know if they had COVID-19. They can only guess.  

“There’s no test. There’s no way to evaluate it,” said Dr. Priya Duggal, an epidemiologist and professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “You can only ask people to report it themselves.” 

Duggal works on an ongoing long COVID-19 survey at Johns Hopkins, a project that began with the first reports of lingering illness in the spring of 2020.  

“We expected there would be a long-term consequence,” she said. “We weren’t expecting what we’re seeing now.” 

Hopkins researchers have found that one-third of patients report symptoms of long COVID-19. A much smaller group, around 3 percent, was identified as suffering from severe long COVID-19, “meaning that they can’t function in their day-to-day life,” Duggal said. “They can no longer walk a quarter of a mile, or up a flight of stairs. Can’t do things like vacuum. It affects their ability to do their jobs, take kids to school.”  

Though researchers have not reached consensus on some of the specifics, they generally agree that long COVID-19 is a constellation of symptoms that can endure for months or years after infection, sometimes emerging after an illusory recovery. The most common symptoms seem to be fatigue, shortness of breath and that blurry mental state known as COVID fog. 

Researchers often file long COVID-19 sufferers into two groups. The smaller contingent, perhaps 1 to 5 percent of all coronavirus cases, suffer symptoms so severe that they “can’t live normal lives,” Duggal said. The larger camp of COVID-19 “long-haulers,” somewhere between 5 and 50 percent of all cases, manifest relatively mild symptoms that don’t hinder daily routines of work, school, shopping and sleep.  

Some in that camp may not have long COVID-19 at all.  

In the Scottish study, 91 percent of people who believed they had long COVID-19 reported one or more symptoms associated with the affliction. But at least one of the same symptoms appeared in more than half of the group that had never caught COVID-19.  

Some people confuse essentially random symptoms with resurgent COVID-19, experts say. Others could be coping with the vagaries of recovery from a serious illness. Still others may be fighting symptoms that linger mostly in the mind. 

“A lot of these are symptoms of depression and anxiety,” said Dr. Steven Dubovsky, chairman of psychiatry at the University of Buffalo. “I’m sure there’s a population of people who got sick and stayed sick for complicated psychological reasons. That doesn’t mean they aren’t sick.” 

One problem with diagnosing long COVID-19 lies in the bewildering array of symptoms. One recent Dutch study counted 23. More common: loss of taste and smell, muscle pain, back pain, headache and lethargy. Less common: “heavy arms and legs,” stomach pain, diarrhea and tingling extremities.  

“We talk about long COVID like it’s a thing,” said Fessel of NIH. “And I think the truth is that what we’re learning, and what we’ve had a sense of for a while, is that there are different flavors of long COVID. It seems like there are some people who really have a lot of the fatigue, the cognitive changes. … There are people who don’t have much of that, but they’re really short of breath with activity levels that never used to bother them, and that persists for months. There are people with real high heart rates. All of these fall under the umbrella of long COVID.” 

One uncertainty lies in the very definition of “long.” Some researchers define long COVID-19 as symptoms enduring past three or four weeks. Others draw the line at three months.  

Another imponderable: Fickle public interest in COVID-19 surveys. People who haven’t recovered from the virus may be more likely to answer a long COVID-19 survey than people who have. Educated white women, in particular, seem to answer these surveys at markedly higher rates than people in other demographic groups.  

Not all the news about long COVID-19 is bad. One good tiding: Keeping up with vaccines seems to reduce the chances of contracting long COVID-19.  

U.K. health officials have found encouraging signs that weaker variants, as well, correlate to lower rates of long COVID-19.  

“Our research and other research have found that if you’re fully vaccinated, your risk of having long COVID 12 weeks after an omicron infection is about half what it was with delta,” said Daniel Ayoubkhani, principal statistician at the U.K. Office for National Statistics.  

Other researchers disagree. And even if the rate of long COVID-19 decreases over time, owing to vaccination or milder variants, the sheer number of infections should guarantee a steady stream of long COVID cases for a long time to come. The impact of those cases, on individuals and on society, could be massive. One recent study suggests long COVID-19 may have already sidelined 4 million American workers.  

“That’s over $100 billion a year, in terms of lost wages,” said Drapeau, of George Washington University. “That’s a pretty big deal.” 

Source: TEST FEED1

Gun control laws fall at dizzying pace after Supreme Court ruling

A New York gun control law that prohibits firearms in Times Square, Yankee Stadium, the subway and other sensitive places is on shaky legal ground after a judge found these provisions violate the Second Amendment, though the ruling is paused while the case is appealed.

The ongoing court battle over New York’s gun control measure is just one part of a shifting legal landscape resulting from the 6-3 conservative Supreme Court’s expansion of the Second Amendment in a June ruling, which has led lower courts to block or strike down gun control measures at a dizzying pace.

Since the justices’ decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen this summer, judges in various parts of the country have said it’s unconstitutional to ban guns that lack serial numbers, to prevent people under felony indictment from buying guns and to prohibit guns from airports and even summer camp.

“In the immediate aftermath, we’ve got a half a dozen courts who are striking down laws based on this decision,” said Jake Charles, a professor at the Pepperdine University Caruso School of Law. “I think it’s going to be shocking to people when we see the fallout from Bruen in the first six months.”

The Supreme Court’s prior term was dominated by the Republican-appointed justices’ overruling of Roe v. Wade. But the court’s aggressive pursuit of other conservative agenda items, like expanding the Second Amendment, is now coming into sharper focus as lower courts wrestle with the gun-rights decision’s implications.

The majority opinion by Justice Clarence Thomas interpreted the Second Amendment as broadly protecting the right to carry a firearm in public for self-defense. At the same time, the decision reaffirmed that gun rights can be lawfully limited — namely, by gun control measures rooted in the “nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation.”

But the court’s “historical tradition” test has been roundly criticized as vague and offering little help to judges who are not trained historians. The Bruen test also eliminated the formal requirement that judges weigh whether or not a challenged law is effective at preventing gun violence, which could undermine public safety.

“The Supreme Court has adopted a test that’s going to make it hard to justify a lot of gun safety laws, including uncontroversial ones like background checks or bans on domestic abusers having access to firearms,” said Adam Winkler, a professor at the UCLA School of Law and Second Amendment expert.

One area of Second Amendment ambiguity that was tested in the New York case deals with so-called “sensitive places,” areas where the Supreme Court said guns could be lawfully prohibited, even as the justices left that term largely undefined.

In response to the Supreme Court’s late June ruling, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) on July 1 signed a law that criminalized the carrying of guns in airports, houses of worship, Times Square and other sensitive places, and imposed heightened licensing requirements. This prompted a swift legal challenge from the group Gun Owners of America.

Earlier this month, a federal judge in Syracuse ruled for the gun-rights group, temporarily blocking key parts of New York law, known as the Concealed Carry Improvement Act (CCIA). In a 53-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Glenn Suddaby said some of the law’s heightened licensing requirements and location-specific bans — including the prohibition of guns in Times Square — went too far.

The plaintiff in the case, Gun Owners of America, hailed the ruling.

“Anti-gunners like Kathy Hochul and [New York City Mayor] Eric Adams lied and misrepresented the Second Amendment to the courts, putting New Yorkers at a great disadvantage in the midst of rising crime,” Erich Pratt, the group’s senior vice president, said at the time. “We are grateful to Judge Suddaby for his quick action to restore the right of the people to keep and bear arms.”

Suddaby, an appointee of former President George W. Bush, ordered New York officials to halt enforcement of the provisions at issue. But he delayed his decision from taking effect, allowing state officials to appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit, which has since halted Suddaby’s ruling while the case plays out there.

Suddaby said New York officials had justified only some of the law’s new limits on constitutional grounds, while failing to adequately defend others.

Specifically, the judge maintained provisions that restricted guns from property that is owned or temporarily restricted by the government; polling places; houses of worship, with some exceptions; schools and public assemblies.

But he blocked gun bans in places of public transportation, summer camps, Times Square and entertainment venues such as theaters, stadiums, concerts and bars.

“Although this Court has found that most of the CCIA’s list of ‘sensitive locations’ violate the Constitution, the Court does so not because the list (or a portion of the list) must rise or fall in its entirety but because Defendants have simply not met their burden of sifting the historical materials for evidence to sustain New York State’s statute,” Suddaby wrote.

Hochul called the ruling “disappointing,” while vowing to do “everything in my power” to combat gun violence.

Second Amendment experts say a likely consequence of Bruen’s silence on key gun rights questions is that courts around the country will reach different conclusions about the law. For instance, it may be only a matter of time before the New York ruling comes into conflict with another federal judge’s different take on guns in “sensitive places.”

All of this means another big gun rights case could soon fall in the Supreme Court’s lap. 

“I originally thought, right after Bruen came down, that the Supreme Court was not going to take another Second Amendment case for a number of years, that it would let lower courts figure out how to apply this test and see how it shakes out,” said Charles, of Pepperdine University. “And now I’m becoming increasingly of the view that it will probably be almost forced to take a case sooner rather than later.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Pence on backing Trump in 2024: 'There might be somebody else I prefer more'

Former Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday hinted at his own plans for 2024 as he dodged a question about voting for former President Trump in the next election.

“Well, there might be somebody else I prefer more,” Pence said with a smile during an appearance at Georgetown University.

Pence was asked by a student in attendance if he would vote for Trump in 2024 if the former president is the GOP nominee.

“All my focus has been on the midterm elections, and it’ll stay that way for the next 20 days. But after that, we’ll be thinking about the future,” Pence said.

The former vice president is widely seen as laying the groundwork for a potential 2024 presidential bid.

He has delivered numerous speeches outlining his vision for the conservative movement through his own “freedom agenda,” urging Republicans to focus on the future and not the past in a swipe at Trump’s obsession with the 2020 election.

Pence has also made frequent visits to early primary states, giving speeches and campaigning with GOP candidates in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Pence was a staunch loyalist to Trump during his four years as vice president, but since leaving office the two have drifted apart over the events of Jan. 6, 2021, when Pence refused to reject the election results at Trump’s urging.

Pence has since said on multiple occasions that Trump was wrong to think he could overturn the results, while simultaneously touting the policy achievements of the Trump administration on trade, the border and foreign policy.

Source: TEST FEED1