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Five takeaways from a heated final Ohio Senate debate

Ohio Senate candidates Tim Ryan and J.D. Vance squared off Monday evening in their final televised debate, which saw personal attacks and clashes over key issues. 

Ryan and Vance went head-to-head on abortion, immigration and the economy, echoing much of the national midterm conversation. 

However, it was the final minutes of the debate that saw the most fireworks, with Ryan accusing Vance of holding anti-immigrant and racist beliefs and Vance hitting back by citing his own family and calling the claim “slander.” 

The forum comes as the polls tighten in the state less than a month out from Election Day. A new USA Today-Suffolk University poll released on Monday showed Vance leading Ryan by just two points. 

Here are five takeaways from the final Ohio Senate debate: 

The gloves come off 

Sparks flared throughout the hour-long debate but fireworks erupted toward the end when Ryan accused Vance of espousing racist and xenophobic beliefs.

The exchange came in response to a question about the so-called great replacement theory, a racist conspiracy theory that asserts there is an intentional effort to replace white Americans with people of color.

“This is who he’s running around talking about replacement theory,” Ryan said. “There’s no big grand conspiracy. This country has been enriched by immigrants from all quarters of the world.” 

Vance interrupted, telling Ryan the accusation was “shameful” given his family.

“My turn, pal,” Ryan responded, prompting Vance to say “oh, buddy.” 

Ryan went on to note that a mass shooting at a Buffalo supermarket earlier this year that targeted Black people was motivated by the great replacement theory. 

“This is disgusting,” Vance responded. “Here’s exactly what happens when the media and people like Tim Ryan accuse me of engaging the great replacement theory.” 

“What happens is my own children, my own biracial children get attacked by scum bags online and in person because you are so desperate for political power that you’ll accuse me, the father of three beautiful biracial babies of engaging in racism? We are sick of it. You can believe in the border without being a racist.” 

“You’re so desperate not to have a real job that you’ll slander me and slander my family,” Vance added. “It’s disgraceful.” 

Immigration emerges as a flash point 

Even before the exchange that closed out the debate, immigration and border security had emerged as a flash point with candidates both lobbing personal attacks and touting their own policy proposals.

In addition to a question specifically about immigration, both Ryan and Vance frequently pivoted answers to other questions — including those on abortion and the opioid crisis — toward the border.

Vance said illegal immigrants were coming into the country “through Joe Biden and Tim Ryan’s wide open southern border.” He went on to cite his in-laws’ story of immigrating from south Asia legally. 

“They followed the laws of this country,” Vance said. “We’re all part of the same family but your introduction to this country should not be breaking its laws. You should come in through the proper channels.” 

“You vote for the amnesty, you vote for the border wall funding,” Vance added, saying it is “going to destroy our country unless we get it under control.” 

Earlier in the debate, Ryan hit Vance for accusing him of being too soft on immigration. 

“I’m not going to take any guff from you, J.D. on this issue,” Ryan said. “This guy has invested in dozens of companies that use foreign workers. This is why J.D. Vance, with all due respect, is a fraud.” 

Ryan also touted his own work on border security and broke with President Biden and others in his party on “relaxing some of the regulations down on the border — completely disagree with that.”

Vance, Ryan work to paint each other as beholden to their parties 

Like last week’s debate, Vance and Ryan continued to paint themselves as independent from their own parties’ establishment while painting each other as behold their party’s leadership. 

In response to Vance’s frequent attempts to tie him to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) Ryan noted he ran against her for House Democratic leadership, saying “you have to have the courage to take on your own leaders.” 

“These leaders in DC they will eat you up like a chew toy,” Ryan told Vance. “You were calling Trump America’s Hitler, and then you kissed his ass, and then he endorsed you.” 

Ryan then noted money Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and GOP mega-donor Peter Thiel have given to Vance’s campaign. 

“What do you think they want for that?” Ryan asked. 

Vance hit back, accusing Ryan of voting with Pelosi “100 percent of the time” and sucking up to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)

“It’s ridiculous to accuse me of being anything because he has utterly failed to be independent,” Vance said. “The guy who is subservient to the national party is Tim Ryan who’s been begging for these guys to come into this race and save him from the campaign he’s been running.” 

Ryan hits Vance on Jan. 6 

Ryan took the opportunity to go on the offensive against Vance on his reaction to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol and his association with election deniers. 

“Of all the things to do in that circumstance, our guy thought it would be a good idea to post on social media, raise money for the insurrectionists, raise legal defense money for those people who stormed the Capitol,” Ryan said. “That’s outrageous.”

Vance, on the other hand, said the committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the capitol is only interested in “a political hit job.”

“It goes back to four years ago, the obsession with the idea that Donald Trump had the election stolen by the Russians,” Vance said. “I think that’s just as much of a threat to the democracy as the violence on Jan. 6.” 

Vance noted that he has condemned the violence on Jan. 6. 

When asked whether Trump should comply with a subpoena by the committee that is set to be issued later this week, Ryan said Trump should respond to the subpoena, while Vance said it would be “a pretty enlightening piece of testimony.” 

National issues of abortion, crime, inflation in spotlight 

Like other races across the country, Ryan and Vance addressed some of the three key issues of the cycle during the debate including abortion, crime, and inflation. 

The debate kicked off with a question on Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and both candidates sought to portray themselves as supporters of the police. 

Abortion also proved to a central issue in the forum, with Ryan seeking to put Vance on defense over the issue. 

When asked by debate moderators whether he would vote for Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) proposed national abortion ban, Vance said he believed “totally reasonable to say you cannot abort a baby, especially for elective reasons, after 15 weeks of gestation.”

“No civilized country allows it,” he said. “I don’t want the United States to be an exception.” 

Source: TEST FEED1

Five takeaways from the Abrams-Kemp debate in Georgia

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and his Democratic rival Stacey Abrams faced off on Monday in their first debate since they competed for the governor’s mansion in 2018. 

The debate quickly became a policy-heavy affair, with the candidates hammering each other over everything from education to crime to election laws. What’s more, it unfolded on the first day of the state’s early voting period, offering Abrams and Kemp a key chance to make their cases to undecided voters before they cast their ballots.

Here are five takeaways from the Georgia gubernatorial debate.

Kemp leans on his record

Unlike in 2018, Kemp is heading into Election Day with a full term as governor under his belt. And on Monday, he sought to remind voters what that entails. 

He repeatedly touted his decision to lift pandemic restrictions against the advice of public health officials, arguing that it strengthened Georgia’s economy while other states faltered. He boasted that he used the state’s budget surplus to give teachers a $5,000 raise. And he stood by a sweeping election reform law he signed last year, claiming that voter turnout has increased, despite accusations of voter suppression.

What’s more, Kemp sought to blunt Abrams’s criticism by accusing her of dodging questions about her own record. In fact, Abrams hasn’t served in public office since 2017, when she resigned her position in the state General Assembly to focus on her 2018 gubernatorial campaign. 

“I would just say that Ms. Abrams is going to do a lot of attacking of my record tonight because she doesn’t want to talk about her own record,” Kemp said. 

Kemp’s strategy underscores his bet that his record in the governor’s mansion is perhaps his biggest asset as he seeks a second term in office, especially given that his approval rating remains above water.

Abrams returns to her 2018 playbook

Abrams stunned many political observers in 2018 when she came within 55,000 votes of defeating Kemp in the race for Georgia governor with a campaign that focused on voting rights and the need for greater racial equity.

She has largely tried to replicate that strategy this year, attacking Kemp and Republicans for implementing new voting laws and hammering the need to balance public safety with police reform. 

In one heated exchange, Abrams accused Kemp of ignoring the struggles of Black and brown people who have faced police discrimination, saying that “while you may not have had that experience, too many people I know have.”

She also touted efforts by Abrams and her allies to implement election reforms in the wake of the 2018 election to make voting more accessible. 

“We didn’t win every single claim, but we forced major changes to the election laws,” she said.

All told, Abrams is hoping to recreate the momentum that helped propel her to a near-win four years ago. But she’s facing a very different political environment this year than she did in 2018, and the question is whether her message has the same resonance.

Crime becomes a flashpoint

Rising crime and public safety dominated a significant portion of the Monday night debate as both Kemp and Abrams sought to cast themselves as the ones to tackle what has become a major issue of the 2022 midterms.

In an effort to put Abrams on defense, Kemp pressed her to say how many sheriffs or law enforcement groups have endorsed her campaign for governor. Abrams, meanwhile, sought to turn the tables on Kemp, noting that crime has risen under his watch and accusing him of relying on platitudes to talk about public safety.

“Unlike you, I don’t have the luxury of relying on slogans to describe my position on public safety,” she said.

Abrams also sought to tie Kemp’s efforts to loosen gun restrictions to a rise in violence in Georgia, arguing that “we have a governor who’s weakened gun laws across our [state], flooded our streets with guns by letting dangerous people get access to the weapons.”

Kemp, meanwhile, said that Abrams was supported by organizations that back the “defund the police” movement, turning to a talking point that Republicans have repeatedly used against Democrats in recent years.

Abrams gives muddy answer to election question

After falling short in her 2018 bid for governor, Abrams declined to concede defeat to Kemp, arguing that voter suppression and Kemp’s position at the time as Georgia secretary of state raised serious questions about the election’s fairness.

That refusal four years ago has remained a line of attack for Republicans, who have accused Abrams and Democrats of hypocrisy for criticizing former President Trump’s baseless claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election.

Asked on Monday whether she would concede to Kemp this year if she loses again, Abrams was circumspect in her answer, saying she would “always acknowledge the outcome of elections” but would fight what she described as unfair voting laws.

That response is likely to open her up to further Republican attacks. Earlier this month, Abrams told ABC News in an interview that while she would “not question the outcome of the election,” she would still “question the process.”

Libertarian candidate gets spotlight

Kemp and Abrams may be the main contenders for the Georgia governor’s mansion, but the debate also featured a third candidate: Libertarian Shane Hazel. 

And while Hazel may not cut the same kind of profile as his rivals, he emerged as an outsize presence on the debate stage. At various points in the night, he interrupted both Abrams and Kemp and sparred aggressively with both. 

During one portion of the debate in which the candidates were given the chance to ask each other questions, Hazel pressed Kemp to “apologize” for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, railing against government restrictions and even raising questions about COVID-19 vaccines.

At another point, he repeatedly talked over Abrams as she sought to respond to a question about public education. Hazel used the discussion to call for the elimination of government-run education. 

Of course, Hazel is almost certainly guaranteed to lose the November election. But Georgia’s election rules require a candidate to receive more than 50 percent of the vote to win an election outright, and if Hazel manages to peel off enough support from the two major party candidates, it could force Kemp and Abrams into a runoff.

Source: TEST FEED1

Democrats worry they peaked too soon ahead of midterms

Democrats have cause for concern that they’re fading at a bad time ahead of the midterm elections after a summer surge fostered optimism that the party could buck historical trends and retain control of Congress.

A New York Times-Siena College poll released Monday found Republicans held a 49-45 lead over Democrats in the generic ballot roughly one month before November’s elections. That represents a shift from September, when the same poll found Democrats leading Republicans by 1 percentage point.

That poll followed a trend among other surveys that as recently as late September showed Democrats leading Republicans on the generic ballot, only for the lead to shrink or disappear altogether.

To some strategists, the shift in fortunes for Democrats is a matter of timing.

Ethan Winter, an analyst at the progressive group Data for Progress, said the Democrats’ outlook improved over the summer as the Supreme Court decision striking down Roe v. Wade coincided with falling gas prices and economic reports that indicated inflation was cooling.

“The inflation outlook improved a little bit as gas prices fell but then got worse again, and momentum this cycle has tracked with these sort of baseline economic indicators,” Winter said.

Winter also noted that Democrats began spending on advertisements in key battleground states earlier than Republicans, leading some Senate candidates in particular to open up polling leads that have since dissipated in states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as Republicans went on the air with their own ads.

Democrats appeared to turn a midsummer hot streak into real momentum with voters, renewing hope for a strong showing in November. Gas prices in August came down dramatically from the roughly $5 per gallon they were averaging earlier in the summer. Congress passed bipartisan legislation to spur investment in semiconductor computer chips, and Democrats coalesced around a $740 billion bill to fight climate change and lower health care costs.

Multiple summer polls had shown Democrats either even with Republicans or leading. An Aug. 17 Politico-Morning Consult poll showed Democrats leading by 4 percentage points. A poll from the news outlets on Sept. 28 found Democrats still leading by 2 percentage points. And a Sept. 30 poll from Yahoo News and YouGov found Democrats ahead of the GOP by 4 percentage points.

Those polls spurred confidence among Democratic leaders that the party was in position to not just to stave off big Republican gains but perhaps even add to its majority in the House and Senate despite overwhelming historical trends that the president’s party tends to lose seats in midterm elections.

“I believe that we will hold the House,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Oct. 4 on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” crediting the party’s grassroots organizing, messaging and fundraising.

President Biden voiced optimism about both chambers of Congress two days later at a Democratic National Committee (DNC) event.

“So far, it looks like in the Senate we not only will hold but maybe pick up a couple seats,” Biden said, acknowledging Democrats were “running uphill” because of midterm election history.

“And secondly, the House is … we don’t have that many seats to have to defend — I mean, relative to where we are, but — but, you know, a lot of gerrymandering in the House across the country, because a lot of governors aren’t Democratic governors,” Biden added.

But the political landscape has changed on Democrats in a short time, putting them on the defensive in key areas.

Inflation accelerated for the second straight month in September with consumer prices up at a faster pace than expected. Consumer price index data showed inflation rose 0.4 percent in September and 8.2 percent over the past 12 months.

The average price of gas is $3.89 per gallon, according to AAA data, up roughly 20 cents from one month ago.

Biden lately has argued that inflation will get worse if Republicans win control of Congress, painting Democrats as the party standing up for working people.

He’s been adamant that the U.S. isn’t heading for a recession, but he acknowledged in an interview with CNN last week that there is a possibility of a “very slight recession.”

The New York Times poll released Monday found 44 percent of voters identified the economy as the top issue facing the country, up from 36 percent in July.

Susan MacManus, professor emeritus of political science at the University of South Florida, argued that this close to the election, the economy would have to see a very significant improvement to change voters’ minds.

“Gas prices plus groceries spells big trouble for Democrats,” she said. “It would have to be a dramatic drop for it to change the narrative.”

Focus on other domestic issues, including abortion, student loans and gun violence, may have also cooled down since the summer months, with the economy staying in the forefront of voters’ minds. 

Those issues are notably important to young voters, the majority of whom don’t historically show up in midterm elections. MacManus said Democrats should “pivot to try to appeal to younger voters” by talking about student loans in particular.

Biden on Monday announced that the application for the administration’s student loan forgiveness program, which was unveiled in August, is now live and that more than 8 million Americans already had applied during a soft launch period that started on Friday.

The president on Tuesday will participate in an event on reproductive rights. When asked why he is focused on abortion issues now, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre noted that the president has spoken about Republicans’ “assault” on abortion rights “for the past several months.”

Ivan Zapien, a lobbyist and former DNC official, argued that tough polling could motivate the Democratic base with the midterms less than a month away.

“Would you prefer to have polls saying you are going to win? Hell yeah. But on the other hand, if you are looking to motivate your base, [there’s] nothing like a poll saying everything you care about is going to go down the drain,” he said.

Zapien argued that with 22 days until the election, Democrats have planned well.

“Your vote totals are locked in and it’s all execution,” Zapien said. “Dems always knew this was going to be tight and planned accordingly.”

Some officials also believe the outlook is being skewed by Democrats and pundits who believe anything short of retaining or growing the party’s majorities will be a disappointment.

The president’s party has gained seats in a midterm election only twice in the past 80 years: in 1998 during former President Clinton’s second term and in 2002 during former President George W. Bush’s first term the year after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Biden’s low approval ratings, a series of dour inflation reports and losses in some special elections had the makings of a red wave to come in November. But recent polling has indicated Democrats may narrowly keep control of the Senate and lose the House by only a few seats.

“Before this summer, the hard data out of the New Jersey and Virginia governor elections, especially, and the specials before Dobbs indicated that Democrats would suffer a rout at the midterms,” said Winter, the analyst at Data for Progress. “And the polling to date suggests that wave has likely been headed off.”

Source: TEST FEED1

GOP seizes momentum in battle for Congress 

Republicans are growing more and more optimistic that they will seize majorities in the House and Senate as a series of polls provides momentum for the party, while stubborn inflation numbers hurt President Biden and Democrats.  

The GOP has long been confident in taking back control of the House, an outcome forecasted by numerous election analysts.

But Republicans are now feeling better about the size of their potential victory in the House — and for their chances in the Senate, which has consistently been seen as a tighter affair.  

“We do have the wind at our backs headed into the election because of environmental movements, where things are looking or like a traditional midterm, and Republican outside spending leveling the playing field,” said one national Republican operative.

A batch of recent polling has put Republicans back over Democrats when voters are asked which party they would prefer on the generic Congressional ballot. 

An Oct. 9-12 New York Times/Siena College poll found a new 4-point advantage for Republicans on the generic ballot, with 49 percent of likely voters saying they would pick the Republican candidate for Congress to 45 percent for Democrats. That marks a shift from September, when the poll found Democrats had a 1-point advantage. 

A Harvard/Harris poll similarly found an increase for Republicans on a generic Congressional ballot question, with a 6-point advantage (53 percent to 47 percent) for likely voters in an Oct. 12-13 poll. Among all registered, Republicans and Democrats were split 50-50, a change from September when Democrats held a 2-point advantage over Republicans, 51 percent to 49 percent. 

An outlier Fox News poll from Oct. 9-12, however, sees Democrats with a 3-point advantage, 44 percent to 41 percent, among all registered voters, unchanged from September. Among those who “feel certain to vote,” though, Republicans have a one-point edge. 

“Republicans are closing strong by staying focused on the quality of life issues voters care about and tuning out the noise. Democrats are in a full-blown panic because they spent the election year focused on their base’s pet issues instead of ones affecting the majority of Americans, and they’re going to pay for it in November,” Jack Pandol, communications director for the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), said in a statement. 

A big reason for the GOP optimism and new Democratic pessimism is inflation.  

Data released last week show that inflation is not slowing down.  

Consumer price index data showed a 0.4 percent rise in September, though the annual inflation rate dropped slightly to 8.2 percent.  

The issue remains a top issue for voters across various polls, with many finding that Republicans have an edge when it comes to who voters think would handle the issue better. 

President Biden’s approval rating, a traditional national mood indicator for midterm elections, remains underwater with some recent polls finding a double-digit net disapproval rating. In the New York Times/Siena poll, 39 percent of likely voters approved of his job performance while 58 percent disapproved. 

Biden’s poor approval ratings, Republicans say, has the potential to help the party score upsets in what would normally be seen as hard-to-reach states like Colorado, Washington or even Connecticut. 

“Biden’s underwater everywhere, and so when that happens, there’s always the potential somebody runs a good race that they could pull off a shocker,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee Communications Director Chris Hartline. 

Democrats contend that they long expected polls to tighten, and that new national polls are not cause for alarm in many key Senate races.  

They take pride in some of their most important Senate incumbents being well-positioned for reelection, after “candidate quality” – as McConnell once put it – led Republicans to downplay expectations. 

Sen. Mark Kelly (D), for instance, has a massive cash advantage in the Senate Arizona race, while Republicans have bickered over outside spending for GOP nominee Blake Masters. National Republican groups slashed millions of dollars in ad reservations there in August. 

But Republicans at national political groups say they see promising signs in several other Senate races.  

In Georgia, Republicans think that Republican Senate nominee Hershel Walker scored points with a strong debate performance against Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) on Friday that exceeded expectations after weeks of negative headlines. News reports that Walker paid for an abortion – which he has denied – do not yet apperar to be swaying the race. 

Republicans think that their messaging on crime has been particularly effective in Pennsylvania, where Republican nominee Mehmet Oz has hammered Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman over his record of making pardons and commutations more accessible.  

The Fetterman campaign brushes off those points and says that Republicans have misrepresented Fetterman’s positions – that while he agreed with a statement that a third of the state’s inmates could be released without a threat to public safety, he does not want to release them all. 

“Despite those attacks, John’s not only still standing but winning,” said Fetterman spokesman Emilia Rowland, pointing to a Monmouth University poll last week that found more voters trust Fetterman on crime. 

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) has hovered in the mid-40s in the polls versus Republican Adam Laxalt. She debuted a partly biographical video on Monday, which GOP strategists said indicates warning signs about recognition among voters at this late stage of the campaign. 

Cortez Masto’s campaign also pushed back.  

“Senator Cortez Masto was born and raised in Nevada, she’s lived her whole life here, and she’s been working to lower costs for Nevadans,” press secretary Sigalle Reshef said in a statement. “Adam Laxalt has a record of peddling the Big Lie about election fraud and working to take away a woman’s right to choose.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Democrats focused on abortion rights worry they’re losing independent women

Democrats are facing headwinds with one of their most important voting blocs – independent women.  

A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday shows female independents favoring the GOP by 18 points, a sizable increase since September at a critical juncture before the midterms.   

The findings come as Republicans zero in on inflation under President Biden as their closing argument.

“At the end of the day, voters are paying more for everything from groceries to energy. When families are struggling to make ends meet, and are having to decide between heating and eating, they are going to vote for change,” Karoline Leavitt, the Republican House nominee challenging Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, told The Hill on Monday. 

Democrats have focused much of their campaign pitches on abortion rights after the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade roiled up their base. 

But now the party is facing questions about that strategy. 

“Democrats have overplayed their hand so many times when it comes to these cultural issues,” said one national Republican operative. “[Women] can’t afford to think about one issue and we’re also smart enough to think about multiple issues.”  

Democrats saw abortion rights as a winning issue as GOP governors and state lawmakers moved to adopt more extreme measures. They pointed to independents as a group that could be won over.  

But the closing message on abortion was always a gamble, now perhaps more than ever with gas prices again rising and inflation proving to be stubborn. 

Leavitt and Pappas are in a virtual tie in a state where reproductive freedom is considered a signature issue. 

“The Biden agenda has been disastrous for Americans across the board,” said Leavitt, who argued “the most effective way to get our country back on track” is by halting “reckless spending” and giving Americans more “energy independence.”  

Not all Democrats are tossing aside the abortion rights first strategy, and some operatives on Monday dismissed the New York Times poll.  

“I have the same skepticism of this poll that I had of polling in 2016/2020, which is that it doesn’t seem to account for a wave of first-time voters who aren’t traditionally reached by pollsters,” said one Democratic strategist. “In 2016, those new voters were people Trump brought out. Now it’s voters activated by abortion.” 

Other Democrats are more concerned given the hardships piling up for many voters. The survey showed 44 percent of voters ranked inflation or the economy as their top issue.  

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in an op-ed for The Guardian warned that while protecting abortion rights is critical, Democrats should focus on addressing voters’ immediate economic considerations first.

“As we enter the final weeks of the 2022 midterm elections, I am alarmed to hear the advice that many Democratic candidates are getting from establishment consultants and directors of well-funded Super PACs that the closing argument of Democrats should focus only on abortion,” Sanders wrote. 

That view is not confined to Sanders, who often touts an economic message above all else. Veteran Democratic strategists James Carville and David Axelrod, two moderates who worked for former presidents Obama and Clinton, also recently expressed skepticism about the Democratic strategy. 

Not too long ago, Biden said that the economy was “strong as hell.” Republicans have resurfaced that remark in opposition research campaigns to paint him as out of touch.  

Democratic groups have spent millions on their messaging and ground games in key states, hoping to get independents to vote for their party. American Bridge, a Democratic political action committee, says women remain one of the most “critical” voting blocs to keeping control of Congress. 

“Through our research, we know that this group cares about both the future of their reproductive rights AND the economy,” said Julie McClain Downey, who serves as the group’s vice president of strategic communications.  

“For the next few weeks, it’s critical that Democratic candidates and groups continue to talk to them about our accomplishments and plans on both, while also pointing out the fact that Republicans only continue to get most extreme, dangerous and obstructionist on everything,” she said.  

In high visibility battlegrounds, Democrats and Republicans alike have tried to balance abortion rights and the economy.  

In Pennsylvania, home to one of the closely watched Senate races of the cycle, Democratic nominee John Fetterman has homed in on abortion access in an effort to galvanize the base while attracting independent and moderate Republican voters.  

Fetterman has repeatedly attacked his GOP opponent, former television Dr. Mehmet Oz, for not being clear enough on whether he would sign onto Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) proposed national ban on abortions 15 weeks into a pregnancy. Democrats say the issue stands to play well across Pennsylvania, particularly in the Philadelphia suburbs.  

“I’ve always thought it was going to end up turning at the end of the day to the economy and to people’s pocketbooks. Elections like this always do,” said TJ Rooney, the former chairman of Pennsylvania’s Democratic Party. “But the question was are all the things that [have] gone in our favor on the margins enough to account for the deficit.”  

Oz has made inroads in the polls in recent weeks as his campaign and national Republicans have focused increasingly on crime. A poll conducted by Emerson College and The Hill late last month showed Fetterman leading Oz by only two points, down from his four-point lead in August.  

“The economy and crime are too big to overlook right now,” the national Republican operative said.  

Republicans also accuse Democrats of oversimplifying the abortion issue in their campaign materials, saying that voters don’t buy it.  

“When you ask voters are they pro-life or pro-choice, if you stop right there, that’s not actually a fair analysis on the issue of actually where they are,” the operative said.

Source: TEST FEED1

Fiona Hill says Musk tweet 'clearly is a message from Putin'

Fiona Hill, a Russia expert who served on the National Security Council under former President Trump, said billionaire Elon Musk was “transmitting a message” for Russian President Vladimir Putin when he tweeted out a proposal to end the war earlier this month.

Hill told Politico in an interview published Monday that before Musk tweeted out his so-called peace proposal earlier this month, he made a similar statement at a September event in Aspen, Colo., suggesting the Crimean Peninsula remain in Russian hands.

Musk also said then that control over the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions should be negotiated because Crimea would need water supplies from those regions, Hill noted.

“The reference to water is so specific that this clearly is a message from Putin,” she said.

Hill served as senior director for European and Russian affairs on the National Security Council from 2017 to 2019 and is now a senior fellow at Brookings.

She explained to Politico that Putin “often uses various trusted intermediaries including all kinds of businesspeople.”

“I had intermediaries sent to discuss things with me while I was in government,” she told Politico. “This is a classic Putin play. It’s just fascinating, of course, that it’s Elon Musk in this instance, because obviously Elon Musk has a huge Twitter following.”

Earlier this month, Musk tweeted out a poll asking his more than 100 million followers to weigh in on his peace proposal, which drew the rebuke of Ukrainian officials and U.S. lawmakers after the billionaire suggested Ukraine give up the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014.

He also suggested new elections be held under United Nations supervision in four recently annexed eastern regions: Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Ukraine has vowed to reclaim all of the illegally annexed territory.

Musk’s poll ended with 59 percent of users against and 40 percent in support with more than 2 million respondents.

Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of political consulting firm Eurasia Group, said last week that Musk told him he had spoken to Putin and knew what Russia’s red lines were. Musk replied that “nobody should trust Bremmer.”

“I have spoken to Putin only once and that was about 18 months ago. The subject matter was space,” Musk said in another tweet.

Last week, CNN reported that Musk has been floating the peace proposal at conferences for weeks, citing sources familiar with the matter, who also alleged Musk may have been in contact with the Kremlin.

The SpaceX and Tesla CEO also drew headlines last week when he threatened to pull his Starlink satellites, which are providing internet service to embattled Ukraine, out of the country because of the high cost. Musk later backed off from the idea and is reportedly discussing ongoing funding with the Pentagon.

Hill argued that Musk is merely a pawn in Putin’s game, noting that the billionaire is extremely popular in Russia.

“He’s got a longstanding reputation in Russia through Tesla, the SpaceX space programs and also through Starlink. He’s one of the most popular men in opinion polls in Russia,” she said.

“Putin plays the egos of big men, gives them a sense that they can play a role. But in reality, they’re just direct transmitters of messages from Vladimir Putin,” she added.

Source: TEST FEED1

US warned to get ready as Europe deals with new COVID-19 rise 

Rising COVID-19 cases in Europe are setting off warnings that the U.S. could experience a new surge this winter. 

Previous jumps in the U.S. have followed a pattern in which cases first rise in Europe, making officials nervous they could see a spike in U.S. cases as the weather turns.  

The most recent data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control shows that cases began going up around the beginning of September in Europe.  

The seven-day average is roughly 230,000 cases per day, reflecting rates that were seen in late July when Europe was still dealing with the omicron BA.4/BA.5 subvariant wave. 

World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated last week that a rise in cases in Europe was expected due to cooling temperatures, but stressed that hospitalizations and deaths did not have to rise as well due to the viral therapeutics that are now available. 

Confirmed coronavirus-related deaths across the European Union have remained low, with a seven-day average of 280 as of last week. 

In the U.S., cases and deaths have continued to trend down, but dropping temperatures that push people indoors, dismal booster vaccination numbers and an overall disregard for pandemic mitigation practices are setting the stage for a winter wave resembling the one across the Atlantic. 

The seven-day moving average for cases in the U.S. is around 38,000, while the seven-day moving average for deaths is about 330. 

Ali Mokdad, epidemiologist and professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, told The Hill the contrast in the regions can be attributed to multiple factors, including warmer temperatures in the U.S. and differing levels of community immunity. 

“In the U.S., we have a higher infection rate than many European countries, where more people have been infected here. So we have a little bit more immunity than they do, but still we have waning immunity,” Mokdad said. 

COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations in the U.S. will likely begin going up in three to four weeks, Mokdad said, though they won’t reach the same levels seen during the omicron wave last winter. He emphasized that this projection is contingent on a situation in which new coronavirus variants that are better at escaping immunity don’t rise in dominance. 

Researchers and virologists have continually stated that the risk of a more infectious variant still looms as the SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to spread and mutate. 

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a U.S.-based data collective operated by researchers and public health experts, publishes possible directions in which the pandemic could go based on multiple models. 

The most recent projections from the data hub present four scenarios: two in which no new variants occur and two in which they do.

Shaun Truelove, assistant scientist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and a member of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub team, said he is leaning away from the potential scenarios where no new variants arise. 

“We are seeing variants, we are seeing that they are emerging and it seems like we will have one of those,” said Truelove. 

The BA.5 omicron subvariant, the dominant strain in the U.S., has begun losing its foothold in the U.S., with sublineages like BA.4.6 and BQ.1.1 growing in prevalence. In some parts of the Midwest, BA.4.6 now accounts for a fifth of COVID-19 cases. 

The differences in community immunity levels between the U.S. and Europe presents a challenge in projecting where the American infection rates will go based on overseas observations, according to Truelove. 

“We have a situation where people are constantly being infected, so their immunity from that infection or from vaccination is waning. And then at the same time as all that’s happening, we’re also seeing the influx of these new variants that have these immune escape properties,” he said. 

Apart from COVID-19, there are other bits of information that can be gleaned from Europe’s situation that could help forecast what the U.S. will experience in the upcoming months. 

Health officials have warned that the flu will likely be worse than it has been in recent years due to lack of exposure, possibly resulting in a “twindemic” of both viruses. Mokdad noted that a spike of influenza infection in Europe has not yet been observed amid the coronavirus surge. 

“We haven’t seen a spike of cases in Europe right now. … So some encouraging news for the flu, but I wouldn’t bet on it,” said Mokdad. 

While U.S. influenza cases have been rising, only 3.3 percent of lab-tested specimens have come back as positive, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Recent polling from the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases found that 49 percent of U.S. adults plan on getting the flu shot this year, only 5 points lower than the percent of adults who got the shot last year.

The prevalence of people getting vaccinated and practicing viral mitigation methods like masking and social distancing has largely fallen out of favor. President Biden said in September that the pandemic was “over,” a move that Mokdad partly cited for the slow booster uptake. 

“President Biden said the pandemic is over, but that’s a mistake for me at a time when we’re trying to push a booster for a new vaccine designed for BA.4 and BA.5 and he goes and says it’s over. So why would people go and get the vaccine?” Mokdad said. “It’s very hard for me to say COVID-19 is over. It’s not over, especially right now coming into winter.” 

Experts who spoke with The Hill strongly encouraged people to get the updated bivalent booster ahead of the holiday season. 

“The best holiday present that you can give — whatever you celebrate — that you give for yourself and your family members is protection and safety. And the best way to do it is to go and get your booster and your flu shot,” Mokdad said. 

Source: TEST FEED1

White House says Iran lying about selling kamikaze drones to Russia

The Biden administration says that Iranian denials that it has supplied military equipment to Russia is a lie, following deadly Russian strikes in Kyiv on Monday that Ukrainian officials said came from Iranian drones. 

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre said that reports from Kyiv appear to document Iranian Shahed-136 drone striking the city.

“We have been warning since July… that Iran was planning to sell UAVs [Unmanned Aerial Vehicles] to Russia for use against Ukraine… There is extensive proof of their use by Russia against both military and civilian targets there,” Jean-Pierre told reporters Monday. 

“You all have seen, as well, the reports this morning of what appear to be an Iranian drone strike in downtown Kyiv, yet Iran continues to lie about this,” she continued.

“They have not been truthful about this and deny providing weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine. Meanwhile, according to these new reports, Iran is considering selling more destructive weapons to support an invasion they claim to oppose,” she added. 

At least four people were killed in early morning strikes on Kyiv that targeted infrastructure and buildings, Ukrainian officials said. The dead included a six-month pregnant woman and her husband, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on Telegram. Rescue crews are searching the rubble for more victims.

The Associated Press and AFP captured images of the triangle-shape of the drone over Kyiv. It appeared to resemble the Iranian Shahed-136, also referred to as a kamikaze drone. The AP reported that Klitschko posted a photo of debris recovered from the attacks on Monday showing “Geran-2”, the Russian name for the drone, marked on a tailfin. 

Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani denied on Monday that Iran was providing Russia with drones.

“The published news about Iran providing Russia with drones has political ambitions and it’s circulated by western sources. We have not provided weaponry to any side of the countries at war,” he said at a Monday press conference, according to Reuters.

Jean-Pierre said the administration is going to “continue to vigorously enforce U.S. sanctions on both the Russian and Iranian Arm trade.

“That’s what we’ll do from here, make it harder for Iran to sell these weapons to Russia, and we’ll stand with our partners throughout the region against that Iranian threat,” she said.

The administration is reportedly readying sanctions targeting Iranian military sales, according to Politico, but with measures likely looking to target specific individuals rather than the Iranian regime. 

“For anybody in the world who is either selling material to Iran that could be used for [unmanned aerial vehicles] or ballistic missiles, or who is involved in flights between Iran and Russia: Do your due diligence, because we are absolutely going to sanction anybody who’s helping Iranians help Russians kill Ukrainians,” a U.S. official told Politico. 

Such a distinction is likely a way for the U.S. to thread a delicate needle in targeting individuals or businesses enabling military sales to Russia, while attempting to preserve pathways for diplomacy with the Iranian government over efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.

“The door for diplomacy will always remain open, but as of now we don’t see a deal coming together anytime soon,” Jean Pierre said. “Meanwhile, regardless of the nuclear talks, we will continue to confront Iran’s behavior in the region.”

Source: TEST FEED1

White House condemns ‘antisemitic’ Trump remarks

The White House on Monday condemned former President Trump’s comments telling American Jews to “get their act together” as antisemitic.

“Donald Trump’s comments were antisemitic, as you all know, and insulting both to Jews and to our Israeli allies,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said at a briefing. “But let’s be clear, for years, for years now Donald Trump has aligned with extremists and antisemitic figures, and it should be called out.”

Trump on Sunday touted his support of Israel in a post on Truth Social, his fledgling social media company, before questioning why Jewish people in the U.S. did not support him more strongly.

“No President has done more for Israel than I have. Somewhat surprisingly, however, our wonderful Evangelicals are far more appreciative of this than the people of the Jewish faith, especially those living in the U.S.,” Trump wrote. “Those living in Israel, though, are a different story — Highest approval rating in the World, could easily be P.M.! U.S. Jews have to get their act together and appreciate what they have in Israel — Before it is too late!”

The comments were widely criticized by Jewish groups and U.S. lawmakers, who bemoaned that Trump has on multiple occasions reduced Jews in the U.S. to their support for Israel.

“It is bewildering that President Trump, who has Jewish children and Jewish grandchildren, continues to evoke age-old antisemitic tropes,” Jonathan Greenblatt, head of the Anti-Defamation League, said Monday.

“American Jews got ‘their act together’ in 2020, when 77 percent supported Biden. This won’t change because Jews view Trump and MAGA candidates as extremist-aligned threats to our security, democracy & values, as epitomized by this antisemitic screed,” Jewish Democratic Council of America CEO Halie Soifer said in a statement.

Trump made support for Israel a cornerstone of his foreign policy, but he has repeatedly drawn criticism for dabbling in antisemitic tropes or failing to condemn extremism.

In 2019, Trump suggested that Jewish people who vote for Democrats are either ignorant or disloyal.

The president angered Jewish groups and others in 2017 when he said there were “very fine people on both sides” of a deadly white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Va., where marchers carried Nazi banners and chanted antisemitic slogans.

Jewish groups also called on Trump to more forcefully condemn white nationalism in 2018 after a gunman killed 11 people at a Pittsburgh synagogue.

In 2016, Trump tweeted an image of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton with the phrase “Most Corrupt Candidate Ever” inside a Star of David on top of piles of cash.

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump slams 'stupid' GOP Colorado Senate candidate after 2024 remarks

Former President Trump on Monday lashed out at Colorado Senate hopeful Joe O’Dea in a post through his Truth Social platform, calling the Republican candidate “stupid” after O’Dea said he would campaign against Trump should the former president make another White House run. 

“There’s this RINO character in the Great State of Colorado, Joe O’Dea, that is running against the incumbent Democrat for the United States Senate, who is having a good old time saying that he wants to ‘distance’ himself from President Trump, and other slightly nasty things,” Trump said, using the acronym for “Republican in name only.”

“He should look at the Economy, Inflation, Energy Independence, defeating ISIS, the Strongest EVER Border, Great Trade Deals, & much more, before he speaks. MAGA doesn’t Vote for stupid people with big mouths. Good luck Joe!” he added.

The Truth Social post came a day after O’Dea said during an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union” that he would try to boost other Republican presidential candidates against Trump during the 2024 election cycle.

“I don’t think Donald Trump should run again,” O’Dea said during the interview, later adding, “I’m going to actively campaign against Donald Trump and make sure that we’ve got four or five really great Republicans right now.” 

In a statement on Monday in response to Trump’s remarks, O’Dea described himself as “a construction guy, not a politician.”

“President Trump is entitled to his opinion but I’m my own man and I’ll call it like I see it. Another Biden, Trump election will tear this country apart. … DeSantis, Scott, Pompeo or Haley would be better choices,” he said, referring to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R) and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley (R).

“These elections should be focused on Joe Biden’s failures – supercharged inflation, a broken border, rampant crime, a war on American energy – not a rehash of 2020,” O’Dea added. “America needs to move forward.”

Trump has not formally announced a 2024 presidential bid, but it is widely anticipated that he will. Meanwhile, O’Dea is gearing up for an uphill battle against Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) in November and has sought to distance himself from the former president and project himself as a centrist, establishment Republican. 

A Marist poll released last week showed Bennet leading O’Dea 48 percent to 41 percent among registered voters. 

–Al Weaver contributed to this report, which was updated at 2:47 p.m.

Source: TEST FEED1