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Skyrocketing inflation is raising mortgages, putting first homes out of reach

A new report showing inflation rising again in September is just the latest bad news for new homebuyers, who are increasingly seeing the cost of a first home pushed out of their reach. 

The latest news puts lenders, already on edge amid a grim economic outlook, on high alert as they look to further cut costs and avoid mortgages that might end up in delinquency. 

As a result, buyers are going to find it increasingly difficult to obtain a loan that enables them to purchase a quality home amid sky-high prices and mortgage rates. 

Buying a home in January 2021 required roughly 19 percent of the median household income to afford the average home, Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research at the data analytics company Black Knight told The Hill. 

“Today, with 30-year rates nearing 7 percent, it requires 39 percent —more than twice the share —of that same median household’s income to make the mortgage payment on that same average home purchase,” Walden said in an email. “That’s simply made it unaffordable for many potential buyers, significantly shrinking the pool of potential buyers in the market.” 

The Consumer Price Index released from the Labor Department Thursday found that inflation increased in September by 0.4 percent and 8.2 percent over the past 12 months. 

The latest report will most likely result in added pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates once more, and its trickle-down effect could lead to higher mortgage rates. 

Rates are already at a 16-year high, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumping to nearly 7 percent last week, more than doubling the rate from a year ago, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 

The Federal Reserve’s battle with inflation resulted in several big rate hikes over the summer, which had already cooled the housing market substantially after a two-year pandemic-fueled boom. 

Mortgage credit availability fell for the seventh consecutive month to its lowest point since 2013 last month. A decline in the index means credit standards are tightening, while an increase would indicate loosening credit. 

“With the likelihood of a weakening economy, which would lead to an increase in delinquencies, there was a smaller appetite for lower credit score and high LTV [loan-to-value] loan programs, along with a reduction in government streamline refinance programs,” Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said in a statement earlier this week. 

Rising interest rates have also led to a decline in applications for both new mortgage and refinancing options. Mortgage applications decreased by 2 percent from the previous week, according to data released Wednesday by MBA. Applications fell by 39 percent from the same point last year. 

Although the Fed’s rate hikes have actually brought home prices down in recent weeks, the average home value is up by more than 14 percent from a year earlier at $357,810, according to the real estate company Zillow. 

And lower prices won’t help first-time home buyers a ton when their monthly mortgage rate is jumping higher. 

The total monthly cost for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 6.81 percent would be approximately $2,465 if the buyer can secure a down payment of $71,562, according to Zillow’s mortgage calculator. 

These heightened costs, along with the prospect of a weakening economy, are adding pressure on both lenders and buyers.

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Typically, lenders evaluate an applicant’s three Cs, Jason Sharon, owner and broker at Home Loans Inc, told The Hill. 

These stand for capacity, character, and collateral, or if the person has the income to withstand the new debt, has a sufficient credit score, and if the property the buyer is aiming to purchase is worth what they are looking to borrow. 

Sharon said the biggest stress in the current market is a buyer’s capacity to carry the new debt. Interest rates and home prices have made monthly payments so high that even a borrower who would qualify for a home loan under normal economic circumstances could now exceed the allowed monthly debt-to-income ratio. 

“The stress in today’s market is ‘monthly payment,’ which is part of the debt-to-income ratio. With the recent jump in rates combined with the 2-year run on housing price increases, many people have been priced out of the market completely or what they now qualify for does not meet their needs [or] desires,” Sharon said in an email. 

Ira Rheingold, executive director at the National Association of Consumer Advocates, generally agreed with Sharon, although he said he has not seen a tightening in lending standards.   

“I think it’s simply houses are too expensive. People don’t have enough money saved. Interest rates have gone up,” Rheingold said. 

“And so, I think that’s why there are less mortgages being made. Not that it’s tougher for an individual to get a mortgage. It’s tougher for an individual to get a mortgage that will allow them to buy the house that they want to buy,” Rheingold added. 

If there is a recession, something that is an increasing worry for policymakers and business leaders, it could leave lenders steering clear of riskier loans. 

Banks do not want to give out loans to people who can’t pay them back. 

“Every major recession has a leading indicator of a rise in unemployment. Usually unemployment is very low, then has a turn for the worse. Obviously, if you can’t get a new job, you can’t pay your mortgage,” Sharon continued. 

A further weakened economy might lead to a rise in the number of home loans that are denied. Data from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau shows the overall denial rate for home purchase applications in 2021 was 8.3 percent, falling by 1 percentage point from a year earlier. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Democrats quietly making 2024 contingency plans ahead of midterms

Democrats behind the scenes are already talking about and making contingency plans for 2024 in case President Biden decides not to seek a second term, moves expected to intensify immediately after Election Day. 

Nov. 8 won’t just decide what Congress looks like for the next two years. It will in many ways kick off the presidential campaign season and determine what that looks like for Democrats.

If they do better than expected, Biden could make a strong case for running again and the likelihood that he’ll get a credible challenger shrinks. But if Democratic candidates have a bad showing some in the party are expected to call for more options.

“I’ve been very clear,” Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) said at a Nexstar sponsored-debate against Republican nominee J.D. Vance this week. “I’d like to see a generational change.” 

At age 79, Biden has called himself “a bridge” between generations of Democratic politicians. Top leaders like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), 82, and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), 71, are in his age range, and administration officials often swat off questions about whether he’ll run again, with public and private statements indicating his intent. 

But taken in tandem with the uncertainty of the midterms, the age factor leaves the door open for Democrats to start laying some groundwork, and several have already shown signs that make their aspirations fodder for speculation. 

Traveling to early voting and swing states is one of the best ways to assess a politician’s interest in seeking higher office. And just a few weeks out from Election Day, midterm candidates in those places are hoping for a boost from top figures in their party — giving potential presidential hopefuls a built-in reason to be there.

In Wisconsin, Democratic Senate nominee Mandela Barnes, the lieutenant governor, is hoping to get recognizable figures like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to the battleground state, according to a report in Politico. 

A trip by Sanders, 81, would likely be seen as a controversial calculation in the home stretch, but could also raise questions about the senator’s own possible political preparations. 

One progressive strategist close to Sanders told The Hill that his fanbase is still very much alive and well and quipped that he’d proudly work for the senator in 2024 even if he were in the hospital. The lighthearted remark symbolizes the dedication of some in Sanders’ orbit who would like him to mount a third presidential bid.

Sanders won New Hampshire in both 2016 and 2020, but that doesn’t mean he’d have the state to himself if he were to run again. A roster of Democrats have traveled to the first-in-the-nation primary state to convince voters to show up and vote for their party’s House and Senate candidates. The list includes several who ran against Biden last election. 

Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who each spent considerable time there during the last cycle, have already made the trek, while Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., has also gone several times. Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), and Illinois Gov. J. B. Pritzker (D) have touched down too.

“It’s going to be the Bernie effect,” said McKenzie Wilson, who serves as communications director at the polling outfit Data for Progress.

“If you can get J. B. Pritzker to run, who’s been very pushed to the left by progressives in Illinois very successfully, is that a win?” she asked about the billionaire Biden ally who has been talked about as a future candidate. 

It’s not just Democrats making contingency plans for themselves. Progressives are eyeing other possible presidential hopefuls to try to figure out on what issues they could be moved leftward.

Another Biden confidant, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), has also been mentioned. 

“Frankly, maybe there’s leverage in moving Gretchen Whitmer more to the left on progressive policies that really perform well,” said Wilson, mentioning positions like a $15 minimum wage. “I don’t know if anyone’s really doing that work. They probably should be.” 

Still, Democrats are shy about appearing too interested in 2024 before the midterms are over and as Biden continues to emphasize he will run for a second term.

They argue the party first needs to perform well in November to stop what they foresee as an avalanche of potential problems if Republicans gain control of even part of Capitol Hill. 

One past presidential candidate summed it up as an existential question about the country’s values and principles, rather than just horse race politics. 

“The most important thing is for the Democrats to do well that day, of course,” Marianne Williamson, a spiritual author and progressive activist, told The Hill on Thursday. “But we’re talking here about something much more important than a political football game; we’re talking about the fate of our democracy.”

“No one person or their career or their political prospects is what matters now,” she said.

Democrats broadly agree on that. But the conventional orthodoxy says they can wear many hats, shifting between roles as lawmakers, surrogates and eventually candidates themselves. 

Some say that applies particularly to progressives right now. Three House liberals, Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Katie Porter (D-Calif.), have all recently written books reflecting on their journeys and visions for a better political system. Book tours can afford candidates yet another way to visit key states while promoting their work.

“A lot of it comes down to self-promotion, and one’s willingness to put themselves out there way before others would,” said a well-connected Democratic source in New Hampshire. 

The source mentioned Buttigieg, 40, who Democrats are increasingly whispering about as a younger leader who could be in contention for the nomination for a second time. That scenario, however, usually comes with the caveat that Biden would have to announce he wouldn’t run, since Buttigieg is now working in the administration and is seen as a team player.  

Many in the party believe he has the desire and is well poised to do it, including being the face of bipartisanship legislation at work in the infrastructure bill.

“He is very talented, but it remains pretty stunning (almost brazen) that as a 33-year-old two-term mayor of a small city that was overwhelmingly Democratic … could be a serious candidate for DNC chair. And then president?” said the source from the Granite State, where Buttigieg came in second place and is currently polling ahead of Biden in one survey.

“My point is not that Buttigieg couldn’t pull it off — he did! — but that he had the confidence to try it,” the source said. “There are others … with the talent to try it, but it takes that willingness to just go for the throat, too, and not wait for somebody else to tell you you’d be good at it.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Darkening economic outlook spells trouble for 2022 Democrats

President Biden and Democrats are facing serious political headwinds driven by high inflation, an erratic stock market and deepening recession fears as they attempt to defend their majorities in the House and Senate.  

The president banked on a massive economic rebound powering his party to another sweep of Congress two years ago when he launched his ambitious recovery plan, deploying trillions in dollars to support the recovering job market and struggling households. 

In late summer, after enduring the scourge of surging prices and a strained supply chain, the president and his party saw a string of economic and policy wins.  

Gas prices dropped and Democrats were able to come together and pass a sweeping climate and health care bill. The U.S. has also enjoyed the strongest run of hiring in decades, adding more than 10 million jobs since Biden took office and 3.8 million this year alone.  

But the U.S. economic outlook is once again darkening.  

The latest inflation report could cost the president and his party dearly, all while deepening the risks facing the US economy. 

Consumer prices rose 8.2 percent over the past 12 months and 0.4 percent last month alone, according to consumer price index data released Thursday by the Labor Department. 

While the annual inflation rate has steadily fallen since June, rising prices for food, shelter, health care and travel weigh on household budgets. 

Retail sales also flattened out in September, according to data released Friday by the Census Bureau, as more Americans pull back their spending amid rapid price growth. 

“Inflation is the main factor that is determining how much shoppers are willing to spend. Households are tapping into savings, accessing credit and reducing their savings contributions as they meet higher prices head on,” explained Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the National Retail Federation, in a Friday analysis. 

The financial squeeze is also straining voters’ faith in Biden and Democrats’ ability to lead the U.S. out of the mire. 

Only 28 percent of Americans believe the United States is headed in the right direction, according to a poll conducted by The Economist and YouGov earlier this week.  

The poll of 1,500 U.S. citizens found that 41 percent of Democrats, 53 percent of independents and 78 percent of Republicans believe the U.S. is already in a recession, even as the economy has added 420,000 each month on average this year. 

“You go to the grocery store and everything is more expensive and quite often more expensive than the last time you were there. It’s hitting families’ budgets, it’s hitting their psyche, and it’s the number one issue on the campaign,” said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former spokesman for the Republican National Committee, in a Thursday interview. 

“You’re paying more or you’re making choices to not spend that money. And that’s every day. Nothing competes with that,” he added. 

Republicans have blamed Biden and Democrats for the rapid inflation facing U.S. households since prices began rising last summer. GOP lawmakers say the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan — the sweeping relief bill signed by Biden in March 2021 — is the primary reason Americans are suffering under higher prices. 

“Wages are down, prices are up, and Democrats have no one to blame but themselves. Americans know a Republican vote in November is a vote for lower prices and a strong economy,” said Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel in a Thursday statement. 

While most economists believe Biden’s stimulus bill did spur higher inflation, it is far from the only factor driving prices higher. Inflation has been high around the world and Democrats are eager to hold up the strength of the U.S. economy against global counterparts. 

Biden and Democratic lawmakers have sought to highlight the swift rebound of the job market and the return to the pre-pandemic jobless rate of 3.5 percent, then a 51-year low. Democrats are also trying to rally support with the recently enacted Inflation Reduction Act, a bill intended to lower prescription, health care and energy prices. 

“The challenge for candidates is going to be finding the one, two, or three things that resonate the most with voters, laying out their impact but also reminding their voters of the comparison to what they are up against in those specific areas and districts,” said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist, in a Thursday interview. 

“Over the next few days, those folks have to be unapologetic about what has been done and in historic fashion,” Seawright said. 

Unfortunately for Democrats, inflation has resonated with voters more than the party’s attempts to mitigate it.  

Fifty-one percent of respondents to the Economist-YouGov poll said inflation is the most important factor to them when assessing the strength of the economy. Just 15 percent said the unemployment rate was the main way they judge the economy. 

And only 12 percent of Democrats, 4 percent of independents and 4 percent of Republicans believe unemployment is more important than inflation.  

Seawright said it’s essential for Democrats to highlight their attempts to bring prices down through the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s efforts to normalize supply chains and the administration’s attempts to expand energy production. He also said a lack of Republican plan to fight inflation should give Democrats a good foil to win voters to their camps. 

“If you compare that to what the Republicans have tried to deny and what they refused to offer in the solution, hopefully that would be a no brainer for voters,” he said. 

But Heye countered that Republicans don’t need a solution to win off of concerns about inflation and the economy. He compared the upcoming elections to the 2010 midterms, when Republicans captured control of the House and Senate on the promise to repeal — but not replace — the Affordable Care Act. 

“Ultimately in politics, you tend to be rewarded more for identifying problems than offering solutions and given the level of anger that voters have on this, that can be a winning strategy,” he said. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Dana Bash, Kari Lake clash over 2020 election fraud claims

Arizona Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake sparred with CNN’s Dana Bash over unfounded claims of mass election fraud in 2020 during an interview on Sunday.

“You called the 2020 election corrupt, stolen, rotten and rigged, and there was no evidence of any of that presented in a court of law or anywhere else that any of those things are true. So why do you keep saying that?” Bash asked Lake on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“Well, there’s plenty of evidence,” Lake responded. “We had 740,000 ballots with no chain of custody. Those ballots shouldn’t have been counted.”

A series of investigations into Arizona’s 2020 elections failed to find evidence of substantial fraud that would have overturned President Biden’s victory in the state.

The state attorney general’s interim report suggested it was possible that between 100,000 and 200,000 ballots were transported without a proper chain of custody, but the report did not allege that mass fraud occurred.

Lake went on to portray the media as covering only “one side” of the issue, while Bash repeatedly contested Lake’s claims of electoral fraud.

“Are you undermining faith in elections by saying that the 2020 election was stolen when there’s absolutely no evidence to support that?” Bash asked.

“In 2018, Stacey Abrams never conceded. She still hasn’t,” Lake said. “I don’t hear CNN calling her an election denier.”

“We have the right — it’s protected with our First Amendment — to question our government and to question elections,” Lake continued. “We still have the First Amendment, and when you start seeing the media cancel people for questioning their government, then that’s when we have a problem.”

Bash subsequently played clips of former Attorney General William Barr and former acting Deputy Attorney General Richard Donoghue testifying before the House Jan. 6 committee that former President Trump’s claims of election fraud in 2020 were false, asking Lake why she doesn’t believe them.

“Dana, you want to have me on here and talk 2020 election, and you’re —” Lake said.

“I would never bring this up ever had you not been bringing this up consistently on the campaign trail,” Bash responded.

During a subsequent interview on “State of the Union” with Lake’s opponent, Katie Hobbs, the Arizona Democrat lambasted Lake’s position.

“This is disqualifying,” Hobbs said. “This is a basic core of our democracy, and she has nothing else to run on.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Ongoing US support to Ukraine could prompt Russian cyber escalation in midterms, experts warn

With Russia continuing to face setbacks in its war against Ukraine, experts warn Russian President Vladimir Putin may escalate his cyber operations in the November midterms as retaliation for U.S. involvement in the conflict.

Recent cyberattacks against U.S. state government and airport websites that Moscow-backed hackers have claimed responsibility for may have been testing grounds for such Russian efforts to interfere in the upcoming election, posits James Turgal, vice president of cyber consultancy Optiv.

“They started out hitting the websites of those particular states as a test bed to see how it works,” said Turgal, who previously served as the executive assistant director for the FBI’s information and technology branch.

“Clearly, they’re amping up [their cyber operations] … and pressure is starting to increase,” he added.

Other experts similarly warn Russia may intensify its efforts to interfere in the American election, as a means of distracting the U.S. from assisting Ukraine or as retribution for that ongoing support.

“The Russian government likely views electoral interference and voter influence ahead of the US midterm elections as an appropriate response to the US’s defensive military support to Ukraine and to US participation in unprecedented international sanctions that have isolated Russia and heavily damaged its economy,” reads a report from cybersecurity firm Recorded Future published Thursday.

The warnings come as some officials have described Putin and the Russian military becoming “desperate” in recent weeks as the country’s forces have lost ground and momentum amid a massive Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern and eastern Ukraine.

In an address on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimated that nearly 65,000 Russians have been killed since the invasion began in February.

Although hesitant to put U.S. boots on the ground, the Biden administration has sent billions of dollars in military and economic aid to Ukraine since the onset of the war. The U.S. has also provided technical assistance in cyber space to Ukrainian forces.

Turgal, who argues American weapons systems are “mostly” responsible for Putin’s mounting losses in Ukraine being “so visible”, said the U.S.’s continued involvement in the war could trigger the Russian leader to ramp up his cyber arsenal and use it to interfere in the midterms.

He pointed to the recent series of cyberattacks purportedly carried out by Russian-backed hacking group Killnet as possible precursors to more sophisticated and destructive types of Russian cyberattacks against the U.S. election system.

Earlier this week, Killnet claimed responsibility for launching a series of cyberattacks aimed at more than a dozen websites of major U.S. airports. 

The Atlanta and Los Angeles international airports were among the 14 airports impacted by the attack.

Last week, Killnet also claimed responsibility for knocking several U.S. state government websites offline, including in Colorado, Mississippi and Kentucky.

Turgal explained that the effectiveness of potential Russian cyber operations against the U.S. will depend on which hacking proxy group the country decides to use, noting that Killnet typically launches unsophisticated types of cyberattacks like distributed denial of service attacks, in which hackers disrupt and overwhelm a server with internet traffic causing it to shut down.

“If it’s the Killnet level of sophistication, then they will probably not be that successful,” Turgal said.

But Turgal warned that as November approaches, it’s likely that critical sectors and government websites will experience more sophisticated types of attacks. 

“As we get into the latter part of this month, and certainly in the first week of November, I think you’re going to see a number of [sophisticated] attacks,” he said.

Jason Blessing, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, agreed that the U.S. should expect the Kremlin to step up its cyber operations leading up to and during the midterms, but he doesn’t see election meddling as directly tied to the events on the ground in Ukraine.

“Russian meddling in U.S. elections is a near-given at this point, and the military and intelligence units undertaking cyber operations in Ukraine are going to be different from the units carrying out malicious activity against the U.S.,” Blessing said. 

However, he did acknowledge that as the U.S. continues to support Ukraine, it will only make the country a “greater target” for Russia, particularly its critical infrastructure and election system. 

“Putin knows that the Ukrainians cannot achieve a decisive victory without Western support, particularly from the U.S.” Blessing said.

“As a tough winter approaches in Ukraine, Putin is not likely to pass up the opportunity to distract U.S. war support by injecting chaos into the midterm elections,” he added. 

Recorded Future’s report this week noted the war in Ukraine has likely put a strain on Russia’s strength, capabilities and influence, but said the firm does not believe that will deter Moscow from trying to interfere and influence the U.S. midterm election.    

The U.S. has been preparing for months to counter various cyber threats ahead of the election. Government officials have repeatedly said, however, that at the moment they are not aware of any credible or specific threats that would compromise or disrupt the election system.

Last week, the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released a joint advisory assuring the public that any attempts to manipulate votes at scale will be detected and thwarted. 

The federal agencies also said that any attempts to jeopardize the election system are “unlikely” to cause large-scale disruptions or prevent voting.  

In a recent interview with CNBC, White House National Cyber Director Chris Inglis said that his office and other government agencies are aware that foreign adversaries are attempting to affect the confidence of the election. However, he said the government and the private sector have put measures in place to counter those threats.

During the interview, Inglis also noted that Putin is realizing how difficult it is to carry out cyber offensive operations, as they don’t always turn out to be as effective as anticipated.  

“If we examine what we’ve seen in the physical domain, it’s harder for Putin to exercise a coordinated, synchronized set of attacks than he might have imagined,” Inglis said.

“I think you can lift and shift that [premise] into cyberspace,” he said, adding that carrying out cyber offensive attacks is harder than it looks.

However, he was quick to caution that the U.S. should still remain wary as there are still some critical infrastructures that are not well-defended against cyberattacks and could become targets.

“We’re still viable for sucker punches,” he said.

Federal agencies are also cautioning against the spread of disinformation ahead of the midterms. Earlier this month, the FBI and CISA released another joint advisory, that time warning the public that foreign actors are likely to manipulate information as a tactic to influence voters and the outcome of the election.

“As with previous election cycles, foreign actors continue to knowingly spread false narratives about election infrastructure to promote social discord and distrust in U.S. democratic processes and institutions, and may include attempts to incite violence,” the advisory read.

Experts have said that Russia’s playbook has always been to divide the country along party lines and suppress voter turnout. 

“The Russians have been carrying out information operations and trying to undermine American democracy for a long time,” said Michael Daniel, president and CEO at Cyber Threat Alliance.

“Anything that weakens the U.S. or causes us to spend more time looking internally than externally, all of that is beneficial from [Putin’s] perspective,” he added.

Source: TEST FEED1

Mail-in voting changes could play a decisive role in these swing states

The COVID-19 pandemic turned absentee voting into an essential part of the 2020 elections, with more than 39 million Americans choosing to cast their ballots by mail. 

States have been reckoning with the consequences ever since. 

Former President Trump’s unfounded claims of fraud in his loss to President Biden included suggestions that absentee voting was partly to blame, leading his allies in GOP-led states to enact limits to mail-in voting. 

Other states have made temporary pandemic measures permanent, making it easier to send in votes ahead of elections. 

It remains to be seen what role mail-in voting will play in the 2022 midterms, but it is certain to be closely watched, especially in crucial swing states. 

Here are five states where mail-in voting — and changes made over the past two years — could play a decisive role in close races.  

Arizona 

Following the 2020 presidential election, Arizona enacted several laws changing vote-by-mail process and procedures. 

Many of these laws won’t go into effect until 2023 and beyond, however, a law that will be in effect requires mail ballots missing signatures to be thrown out if they are not fixed by 7 p.m. on Election Day. 

The law codifies what for many precincts in the state was already commonplace, however some precincts previously granted a “cure period” for missing signatures. 

Arizona will still have a 5-day cure period for mailed ballots on which the signature does not match the voter’s signature on file.  

The bill making the changes, S.B. 1003, was heavily litigated but ultimately upheld by Arizona’s 9th Circuit Court.

Liz Avore, senior adviser for the nonprofit Voting Rights Lab, said that the law would disenfranchise voters and be particularly harmful to Indigenous voters in Arizona — a constituency that leaned liberal in 2020, according to precinct level data.

“A lot of these ballots are going to be coming in, you know, on Election Day or just before Election Day, and so requiring voters to fix the problem by 7 p.m. on Election Day is obviously going to exclude a lot of voters,” said Avore. 

“It’s going to exclude a lot of voters particularly on tribal lands where mail is more inconsistent and often the P.O. box is further away for folks to get to.” 

Arizona has a number of closely watched races pitting Trump-backed election deniers against more moderate Democratic candidates in the increasingly purple state. 

Democrat Katie Hobbs is tied with Republican Kari Lake in recent polls of the governor’s race, while incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is maintaining a significant lead over GOP nominee Blake Masters. There is also a close House race between Democrat Kirsten Engel and Republican Juan Ciscomani.

Florida 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has avoided saying whether the 2020 election was rigged, but has nonetheless taken numerous actions to crack down on alleged election fraud. 

In May 2021, he signed S.B. 90, which requires those voting by mail to provide a driver’s license or state identification card number or the last four digits of their social security number to receive an absentee ballot. The number provided then must be verified by an election official to make sure it matches the number on file in the voter’s registration for the voter to be mailed a ballot. 

Avore said many voters may not have those numbers on hand, as they were not previously necessary when registering to vote by mail or making a mail-ballot request.

“They would no longer be able to vote by mail unless they were to, you know, take action to go and actually add those numbers to their voter registration file,” said Avore. 

Other provisions of the law require absentee ballot requests to be received at least 10 days before the election, or be rejected. Any issues with ID numbers must also be sorted out before the 10-day deadline for mail ballot requests to get processed in time. 

In April, DeSantis signed off on a law replacing ballot drop boxes with secure ballot intake stations, which are only open during early voting hours and must be manned by an elections official when they are open.

Avore said that restrictions on drop boxes could disproportionately impact voters of color. 

“There’s also research that shows that when drop boxes … are equitably placed throughout an area, it actually particularly is helpful to voters of color,” said Avore. “Voters of color tend to disproportionately rely on drop boxes.”  

Voters of color also disproportionately vote for Democrats. In the 2020 presidential election, 89 percent of Black and 53 percent of Hispanic voters in Florida voted for Biden, according to an NBC exit poll.

Florida’s new election laws also make it a third-degree felony for an individual to possess more than two mail-ballots, aside from their own and the ballots of immediate family members, punishable by up to five years in prison and a $5,000 dollar fine.

“I think what it does is it’s going to limit the ability of voters to ask, you know, either a trusted friend or caregiver to pick up or drop off a vote by mail ballot for them, and that’s going to have an impact on elderly, working, and mobility impaired voters in the state of Florida,” said Bobby Hoffman, deputy director for the American Civil Liberties Union’s Democracy Division. 

While DeSantis is maintaining a wide lead over Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, other high-profile races are closer, including Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) bid to keep his seat against Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla). 

Georgia 

Georgia officials refused Trump’s entreaties to overturn his loss to Biden in 2020, but have been much more willing to pass laws targeting potential election fraud. 

Under S.B. 202, which was passed last year, those voting by mail in the state are required to provide some form of ID in order to receive and cast a mail ballot. The bill also shortens the time frame that someone can request an absentee ballot from 180 days before an election to 78 days.

Additionally, all absentee requests must be received at least 11 days before an election for a voter to receive a ballot, up from the 4-day deadline that was in place in 2020. 

“Many folks won’t be aware that they’re going to be unable to vote in person in that time frame, so it shortens the period for them to request a ballot by mail,” said Hoffman. “For some of those folks it may unfortunately mean that they’re unable to vote because of that.” 

In Georgia’s legislative elections last November, 52 percent of applications for mail ballots were rejected because voter requests were made within the last 11 days before the election, according to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, while only 26 percent of those who had absentee requests rejected went on to cast ballots in person on Election Day. 

Another provision of the bill also limits the hours which drop boxes can be open, changing it from 24/7 to whenever polling locations are open for early in-person voting. Additionally, the bill also has a provision limiting drop boxes. 

An analysis by NPR, WABE and Georgia Public Broadcasting tracking this change to drop boxes found “more than half of the roughly 550,000 voters who cast their ballot using a drop box in the state’s 2020 general election lived in four metro Atlanta counties — Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett — where about 50% of the voters are people of color.” 

The analysis also found that in these four counties alone the number of drop boxes had dropped from 107 to 25 under the new law, and that overall, a quarter of the state’s voters (1.9 million people) have seen their travel time to drop boxes increase from 2020. 

Mail voting has typically skewed more in favor of Democrats in Georgia. In 2020, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) won his Senate seat after receiving 395,037 more mail ballots than his Republican challenger Kelly Loeffler. 

Warnock is locked in a close race this year with Trump-backed former football star Herschel Walker. Democrat Stacey Abrams, a leading voting rights advocate in the state, is also making a second bid to beat Gov. Brian Kemp (R), whom she lost to in 2018. 

The Georgia Democratic Party said in a statement provided to The Hill that it was committed to making sure the new law doesn’t prevent anyone from voting.  

“While no eligible voter should have to face challenges in casting a ballot, we are working hard to educate and empower voters, defend access to the ballot box, and protect every vote so that all Georgians can have their voices heard.” 

Nevada 

Democratic-controlled Nevada has moved in the opposite direction, passing policies likely to increase turnout in the 2022 elections. 

In 2021, lawmakers passed A.B. 321, which requires county clerks to mail all active registered voters a ballot at least 14 days before an election, making Nevada one of eight states to offer universal mail-in ballots. 

“It’s going to provide them [Nevada voters] increased convenience,” said Hoffman. “In states that have vote by mail processes we usually see some increase in turnout as well amongst the electorate.”

The Nevada Senate race will be among the most closely watched, with Trump-endorsed former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt taking on incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.). Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) is also in a tight reelection race against Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, the GOP nominee. 

Robert Uithoven, a consultant for Laxalt’s campaign, said the universal mail system meant some ballots were being delivered to homes where people hadn’t lived for years. 

“There’s videos all over online of hundreds of ballots piling up in apartment complex mailboxes, you know, mail room garbage cans, and mail ballots being littered all over the state. That does not garner encouragement in an election process,” Uithoven said.  

“I don’t think it puts us at a disadvantage from our opponent, but that’s certainly not an endorsement of the policy,” he added. 

Texas 

Like Florida and Georgia, Texas also passed a law in 2021 that would require voters to provide a form of ID to receive a mail ballot. But the Texas law also requires an ID to return a completed ballot — and the numbers must match.  

Critics of the policy have pointed out that voters in Texas could provide a valid form of ID and still have their votes thrown out for simply forgetting which form of ID they used when requesting an absentee ballot.

S.B. 1 has already become a source of confusion for many Texas voters. According to NPR, 24,636 mail-in ballots were rejected during the March 1 primary in Texas, which amounts to a 12.38 percent rejection rate for mail ballots.

The rejection rate for mail ballots was less than 1 percent in the 2020 presidential election, according to previous reporting by The Texas Tribune. 

Democrats had more ballots rejected in the primary, with 14,281 compared to 10,355 for Republicans, however, the rejection rate was similar for voters of both parties.

“What we saw play out in Texas disproportionately impacted voters of color in terms of excluding them from the democratic system,” Avore said. 

And as in other states, voters of color more often voted Democratic in Texas. In 2020, 93 percent of Black, 63 percent of Asian, and 58 percent of Hispanic voters in Texas voted for Biden, according to a CBS exit poll.

S.B. 1 also puts new restrictions in place severely limiting who can assist a voter in filling out a ballot and under what circumstances. 

Gov. Greg Abbott currently has a healthy lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke in the polls. However, there is a closely watched House race for control of the 34th District, between Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Republican challenger Mayra Flores.

Source: TEST FEED1

GOP election deniers spark alarm about 2024

Democrats are sounding the alarm about the possibility of Republican election deniers winning statewide office in key swing states.

Some Republican gubernatorial candidates, like Kari Lake in Arizona and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, and secretary of state candidates like Jim Marchant in Nevada and Kristina Karamo in Michigan, have gained notoriety for casting doubt on the last presidential election, with some even suggesting they would not have certified the 2020 results.

Now Democrats and even some Republicans are worrying about the effect these candidates could have in further undermining confidence in future U.S. elections should they win office, especially as the country stares down the likelihood of another polarized presidential race in 2024.

“In terms of its impact on ‘24, I mean, again, I think it’s not hyperbole to say that they could trigger a constitutional crisis, and that may simply be the … intent, is that if [Donald] Trump runs and loses, throw as much shit against the wall and see what can happen,” said one GOP strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly when asked how these candidates could impact the certification of 2024 or other elections if they were elected in November. 

“And it certainly sounds like in Michigan … and in Arizona and some other places, there will be willing participants in trying to force that issue.”

Arizona has emerged as a particular concern, with Lake and Mark Finchem (R), running for secretary of state, either tied or ahead of their Democratic opponents in several recent polls.

“I think Arizona is a good example. It’s an important state. It’s a state that Democrats broke through in 2020 and could win in 2024. But they could be in a situation if Lake is governor and Finchem is [the] secretary of state, that Joe Biden could get the most votes and still not get the certification he needs for the electoral vote,” Democratic strategist and The Hill opinion contributor Brad Bannon said, describing a hypothetical situation where Biden ran in 2024.

Both secretary of state candidates Finchem in Arizona and Marchant in Nevada have said they would not have certified Biden’s 2020 win in their states had they been in office last cycle. Karamo, who worked as a poll watcher in Michigan during the last election, has also made dubious claims about 2020. 

Data from the pro-Democracy nonprofit States United Action have shown several key findings: that a candidate that the nonprofit has categorized as an election denier will appear on the ballot for nearly half of the country’s secretary of state races. For attorney general races, that percentage stands at one-third. More than half of the gubernatorial races will also see an election denier on the ballot.

“What we call election deniers are going to win this fall because there’s just so many running,” said Simon Rosenberg, a former adviser for the House Democrats’ campaign arm. “I think what we’re talking about is so ridiculous, and borderline crazy, that it’s not really sustainable, in my view, for a Republican Party to continue down this path.” 

That appears to be true for some candidates who have been trailing their competitors since they won their primary. A Monmouth University poll released earlier this month showed that 54 percent of respondents in Pennsylvania said they would definitely or probably vote for Shapiro, compared to 38 percent who said the same for Mastriano. 

But in other cases, surveys show that some of these Republican candidates are polling competitively — or even leading — their Democratic counterparts. A Fox 10-InsiderAdvantage poll released on Thursday found Lake leading Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hobbs, 49.3 percent to 45.6 percent. An OH Predictive Insights poll released last month found Finchem leading Democrat Adrian Fontes 40 percent to 35 percent in the Arizona secretary of state race.

Those candidates have also set off alarms among some Republicans, who have voiced their support for the Democrats in those races. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), a widely known Trump critic, endorsed Fontes, Hobbs and other Democrats in contested statewide races through his leadership PAC Country First. 

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), who lost her primary earlier this year to Trump-backed attorney Harriet Hageman and has been another fierce opponent of the former president, said that if she lived in Arizona, she would be voting Democratic in the gubernatorial and secretary of state races.

Marchant’s campaign brushed off any criticism, saying in a statement, “Still waiting for the story on how candidates like Cisco Aguilar don’t support the most basic of election integrity measures like voter ID, which the overwhelming majority of Americans support.”

Some Democrats, Republicans and other political observers suggested they thought it was unlikely the candidates, even if they win, could seriously impact the certification of the 2024 election. 

Some argued there was a difference between campaigning and governing. Others suggested that there were checks and balances to stop bad actors from seriously compromising election results. 

“We have checks and balances in place no matter what the outcome of this year’s midterms is. We saw that in 2020, when responsible state officials from both sides of the aisle and the courts stood up and defended the results,” Thania Sanchez, senior vice president for research and policy development at States United Action, said in a statement.

“But Americans need to vote this November like our democracy is on the line—because it is. We need officials in these positions who believe in free and fair elections.”

Still, Sanchez and strategists — on both sides of the aisle — say the sentiments offered by the Republicans who have sowed doubt in the American election system and 2020 race are troubling. 

“The more you call into question an election without ever providing proof, or backing up your findings, the more you make people less inclined to participate in the process,” said a second GOP strategist. “And by the way, that’s an issue, make no mistake, that damaged Republicans in the runoff in Georgia last cycle, and potentially cost us the ability to control the U.S. Senate.”

That strategist argued that the baseless allegations and questioning of an election that found no major fraud — despite numerous audits and investigations in battleground states — could undermine people’s faith in elected officials, too. 

“They’re kind of aftershocks of the earthquake,” the GOP strategist said of the candidates. “The question is, do they portend a future major earthquake again or [are] they just the remnants of the last one? Be interesting to see. I pray for the former.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Biden calls recent Jan. 6 video and testimonies 'devastating,' says he has gone out of his way not to comment

President Biden said on Saturday that he found the Jan. 6 committee’s newly released footage and testimony to be “devastating,” Reuters reported.

“I think the testimony and the video are actually devastating, and I’ve been going out of my way not to comment,” Biden told reporters while in Oregon, according to Reuters.

The committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol released never-before-seen footage from the day itself, during what may have been its final public hearing on Thursday.

The footage showed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) making urgent calls for assistance as rioters breached the Capitol.

“We have some senators who are still in their hideaways,” Schumer told former Defense Secretary Chris Miller in the footage. “They need massive personnel now.”

In additional footage obtained by CNN, Pelosi spoke with former Vice President Mike Pence amid the riot, telling him “I worry about you being in that Capitol. Don’t let anybody know where you are.”

The committee unanimously voted at the end of its Thursday hearing to subpoena former President Trump in what Chair Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) acknowledged was an “extraordinary” move. However, the subpoena is not expected to yield testimony from the former president, who has frequently dismissed the committee as partisan.

Source: TEST FEED1

In a twist for first ladies, Jill Biden is diving into the midterms

First lady Jill Biden is traversing the country in the final weeks before the midterm elections, adding several stops to her already travel-heavy time in the White House and outstripping her recent predecessors in terms of campaign appearances and active fundraising. 

Biden this week visited Tennessee, Wisconsin, Georgia and Florida. Her solo trips, while President Biden has been traveling out west this week, have been focused on top issues for her portfolio, including education, the military and COVID-19, but also include fundraising for Democrats.

The first lady on Wednesday told a group of donors at a private Democratic National Committee (DNC) fundraiser in Nashville’s Hillsboro-West End neighborhood that “we have to act now” ahead of November.

“Just imagine what he could do with a few more partners in Congress,” Biden said.

In 2018, former first lady Melania Trump was mostly out of sight on the campaign trail during the midterms. Even in the final days before the election, she opted to stay home while then-President Trump held campaign rallies across the country.

Former first lady Michelle Obama was known to have a distaste for campaigning — setting out in support of Democrats only in the last few days of the 2016 cycle, during her husband’s final months in office. During the 2014 midterms, some Democrats complained about her absence beyond things such as get-out-the-vote efforts.

“The first lady will be an active campaigner for Democrats this fall and will carry a message of optimism and hope, focusing on the accomplishments of her husband’s administration,” a senior adviser to Jill Biden told The Hill.

Biden will frequently spread the message that “Joe is delivering results,” and she plans to use her “personal experience and perspective as a woman who lived in the pre-Roe era,” to remind women what’s at stake in the election, the adviser said.

Biden in San Francisco last week shared a personal story about a friend who became pregnant as a teenager in the late 1960s, before Roe v. Wade, and had to undergo a psychiatric evaluation before she could get abortion. She then couldn’t return to her home after her procedure, so she recovered at the first lady’s family home.

“Secrecy. Shame. Silence. Danger. Even death. That’s what defined that time for so many women,” Biden said in her remarks.

She is set to join Florida Senate hopeful Rep. Val Demings (D) and gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist (D) for events in the Sunshine State on Saturday and hold an event with Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) for the Biden administration’s Cancer Moonshot initiative to mark National Mammography Day.

On Friday, she delivered remarks at a political event with Democratic Georgia gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams. Also in Georgia, the first lady visited with service members and military families at Lawson Army Airfield in Fort Benning as part of the White House’s Joining Forces initiative.

Georgia is also a top-watched Senate race this cycle, and Biden’s visit came as the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Raphael Warnock, has held a slight lead in polls amid allegations that GOP challenger Herschel Walker paid for an abortion he pressured an ex-girlfriend to get.

Michael LaRosa, former press secretary to the first lady, said that in her first 18 months in office, Biden has traveled to over 75 cities, 40 states and 10 countries. He also pointed out that she is meanwhile teaching a full course load.

“She has been raising money and working for hard Democratic candidates since the beginning of the year because she knows how high the stakes are in this midterm election,” said LaRosa, now a managing director at the Penta Group. “She’s really leaning in and trying to motivate voters to do the same because of how serious consequences are for sitting out this election.”

While other first ladies, with the exception of Trump, hit the midterm campaign trail close to Election Day, Biden has been on the road for months working on her own initiatives, such as supporting military families, as well as promoting Democrats.

Trump made headlines in 2018 for being a no show before the election, while her office pointed to her schedule as to why she wasn’t campaigning.

Obama, for the 2010 midterms, campaigned for Democrats running for Senate in Wisconsin, Illinois, Colorado and other states, but by the 2014 midterms, she left Democrats wanting to see more from her.

Obama made visits to states including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the 2014 cycle, by which time her national profile had risen to the point that she was arguably the most popular person in the administration. Democrats knew the impact she could have and wanted her to be a top surrogate, while she made her dislike of fundraising known.

Katherine Sibley, director of American Studies Program at St. Joseph’s University, argued that first ladies are “often, more popular than their husbands [and] they are in high demand.”

“Today we are seeing Jill Biden too capitalizing on her greater popularity in comparison to her husband’s, but unlike some of her predecessors, she started this months ago, traveling for example to Arizona, Nevada, and Kentucky in March 2022 in a tour connected with the midterms, to fundraise and to promote some of the more bipartisan bills that have since passed, and highlighting her role as an educator,” Sibley said.

Other former first ladies, such as Hillary Clinton and Laura Bush, did their part for the midterm elections while in the White House. After the Republican sweep in the 1994 midterms, Clinton put some blame on herself and told reporters she regretted that Democrats’ efforts on health care reform were used against them politically.

“I take responsibility for that and I am very sorry about that,” she said at the time.

Biden’s visits to purple and red states this week are particularly notable, especially considering that Democrats have a chance of keeping their narrow control of the Senate, an unexpected result for the president’s party in a midterm.

When she went to Wisconsin on Wednesday and attended a Milwaukee Public Schools event, she met with Democrat Mandela Barnes, who is running to unseat GOP Sen. Ron Johnson. Earlier that day in Tennessee, she pleaded to the group at a DNC fundraiser to “keep volunteering and keep giving money.”

“I know you’ve donated but, if you could, help with just a little bit more. Because politics isn’t a game. … Together, we will win this November,” she said.

Katherine Jellison, a professor of U.S. women’s and gender history at Ohio University, said Biden’s fundraising is part of an all-out effort from Democrats ahead of November.

“With Democrats hoping to hold on to both houses of Congress, and their majority margins being razor thin, perhaps the strategy is to pull out all the stops,” Jellison said.

She added that “placing the first lady in front of an audience of people already inclined to donate to her husband’s party and its candidates has been a proven strategy for attracting additional donations in larger amounts.” 

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Democrats try to break through on drug pricing message

Much of the public appears to be largely in the dark about Democrats’ signature effort to let Medicare negotiate drug prices, a potentially troubling sign ahead of next month’s midterm elections. 

The inclusion of a provision allowing those negotiations in the Inflation Reduction Act marked the culmination of an at least 20-year push by Democrats and was touted as a major win over Big Pharma.

Health care has been a winning issue for the party in previous midterm elections, and the law’s passage was intended to give lawmakers a major political victory to campaign on.

“In this historic moment, Democrats sided with the American people and every single Republican in the congress sided with the special interests,” President Biden told lawmakers in August when he signed the legislation into law. 

Speaking to donors during a Democratic fundraiser on Thursday, Biden again highlighted overcoming the drug lobby, saying the biggest part of the law was “taking on pharma.” 

“You know, we pay the highest drug prices of any nation in the world for the same exact drugs, I might add. Same exact prescription,” Biden said. “Well, guess what? We got it changed so that, now, no senior on Medicare will have to pay more than $2,000 a year for their drug prices, no matter what the cost of their cancer drugs are, no matter what it is.”

But a new Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll shows most adults are unaware of the law’s key health provisions.

Only 36 percent of Americans said they were aware that the Inflation Reduction Act allows Medicare to negotiate drug prices; 29 percent said they knew the law put a cap on insulin prices for people on Medicare and only 29 percent said they knew about a cap on out of pocket prescription drug costs. 

Those provisions are popular. Majorities of voters in the same poll said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports policies like Medicare drug negotiation and an out-of-pocket cap on drug spending for people on Medicare.

“If Dem candidates want to take advantage of their popularity they have to talk about it on the stump,” KFF President and CEO Drew Altman tweeted.

David Mitchell, president and founder of the advocacy group Patients for Affordable Drugs, said he wasn’t surprised that a relatively small percentage of the public were aware of the drug pricing parts of the new law, but he also wasn’t concerned.

“People pay closer and closer attention to the issues the closer we get to Election Day. And so the numbers in terms of awareness will go up in the coming weeks,” Mitchell said. 

Mitchell noted that the law only passed about six weeks ago, and it takes time to increase public awareness.

“I’d like the numbers to be higher. Don’t get me wrong, but you can only go so fast. Educating people, and making people aware of policy issues like this takes time and effort,” Mitchell said. 

Outside allies are trying to help spread the message. 

Democratically-aligned advocacy group Protect Our Care is running a nationwide bus tour this fall to educate Americans about the legislation and promote the work of lawmakers who helped pass it.

Leslie Dach, Protect Our Care’s founder and chairman, said he wanted to avoid the mistakes made regarding the Affordable Care Act, where he said Democrats didn’t do enough to counter Republican attacks and let the opposition hijack the narrative.

“One of the mistakes we allowed to happen was … we talked about the name of the law, not the things [the law did], and the name of the law doesn’t matter,” Dach said. “People would say, you know, I hate Obamacare, but I love the fact that my kids can stay on my insurance till the age 26.”

Biden was set to highlight the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act to older Americans during events in California and Oregon over the weekend. His messaging aims to reinforce the idea that Democrats are tackling issues of importance to the average family. 

“Americans are squeezed by the cost of living – that’s been true for years and is a key reason the president ran,” the White House said in a fact sheet. “Health care costs in particular are driving inflation.”

According to the White House, Biden will also highlight how every Republican in Congress voted against the legislation, and that they now want to repeal it.

Yet voters won’t see the law’s biggest drug benefits until years down the road. A provision capping insulin costs at $35 per month for diabetic Medicare patients takes effect in 2023. A $2,000 cap on annual drug costs for people enrolled in Medicare’s prescription drug benefit won’t begin until 2025. 

And the most well-known health provision in the bill, letting Medicare negotiate the costs of select drugs, won’t start until 2026. Even then, the negotiations will at first be limited to just 10 drugs; it will be expanded to 20 drugs by 2029.

“Less than a month to the election, you’re going to talk about something you’re gonna give me in two years, or three years or four years. And I’m hurting right now,” said Joel White, a healthcare industry consultant and former House GOP staffer.

Source: TEST FEED1