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Oz digs deep for support as crossover votes loom large

PHILADELPHIA — Mehmet Oz can’t just rely on Republican votes in November, and he acted like a candidate who knows it as he made his latest pitch Thursday to voters in a heavily Democratic city less than four weeks before Election Day.

Oz, the GOP’s Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, is locked in an airtight battle with Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) that has grown more contentious by the week.

To win, Oz needs to fire up Republicans by landing blows against his Democratic opponent, while also courting moderates in both parties and independents who polls show are backing state Attorney General Josh Shapiro in the governor’s race against state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R).

According to the latest public polls, Shapiro holds a double-digit lead over Mastriano while Oz is narrowing trailing Fetterman.

That means Oz needs a number of those people supporting Shapiro to cross-over and back him in the Senate race.

In the final weeks, Oz is going all out to court them. 

“The number one question the moderate voters on both sides of the aisle are asking is: Are you going to fix stuff or complain about the other team,” Oz told The Hill in an interview. “And they’re pretty brutal about these questions. They’re just sick and tired of what they see as pandering to the far extremes without actually dealing with the crises that are afflicting this country.”

“I’ll work with whoever I have to. All of us are smarter than any of us, and I get that message out as many ways as I can. I don’t stand for the extremes on these positions so I look right up the middle and see what would actually work to deal with the crises,” he continued.

During the interview, Oz notably did not take an opportunity to criticize Shapiro when asked about [their relationship] and, instead, turned the answer around to pan Fetterman. 

“You know, I have not really looked at his candidacy with any detail,” Oz said of the state’s attorney general.

“He’s served the commonwealth and he has a record to run on. … I do know that the person I’m running against has not agreed with him on a lot of issues,” he added. “But I am focused on John Fetterman, and it’s precisely why I think he’s further to the left than where most Pennsylvanians will be accepting.” 

Multiple Pennsylvania-based GOP operatives have indicated that they believe the unpopularity of Mastriano could be a drag on Oz in November.

If Mastriano finishes with a percentage of the votes in the low 40s, it could be difficult for Oz to win, they predict.

In other competitive Senate races, Republican candidates may get help from the governor on the ballot.

For example, in Ohio, where Republican JD Vance is locked in a tight race against Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), the GOP candidate could be helped by voters who turn out to back Gov. Mike DeWine (R), who is on a glide path to reelection and leads by a wide margin. 

“If you’re crazy, I won’t vote for you,” said Tricia Pinto, 62, a longtime Republican and Philadelphia native who attended Thursday’s event and said she is voting for Shapiro over Mastriano. “Shapiro does a good thing for Pennsylvania. He’s a Democrat, but he makes a difference.” 

“They’re going to make the difference. I like their values,” she said about Shapiro and Oz, adding that safety, jobs, inflation and crime are her top of mind issues. 

Thursday’s event marked the fifth “Safer Streets” discussion Oz has hosted, which took place before a small room filled with roughly 40 people — a total that was equaled by the number of campaign staff and media members combined. Oz and Republicans have used the issue of crime to gain on Fetterman in polls.

The events come at a crucial time for Oz as he continues to try to convince Pennsylvania voters that he is their guy. For months, Oz has faced attacks that he isn’t a true Pennsylvanian, marking a notable contrast with the former Braddock, Pa., mayor, and struggled to win support from his own party. 

Amid his push to win middle-of-the road voters, Oz is confident he has brought the party to his side.

“I think the conservative base of the Republican Party is pretty confident that I’m their person,” Oz said. “That’s partly because my positions align with theirs and after a year of talking to me, I think a lot of people have gotten comfortable. … Now those messages are percolating out. ‘You know, I wasn’t sure about him.’ ‘He did sort of know his stuff.’ ‘I really, in my heart, believe he thinks what I believe.’ So that’s helping me a lot.” 

In addition, campaign swings like Thursday also signify Oz’s push to win votes from places that aren’t usually paid much attention to by Republicans. Even though portions of South Philadelphia can lean GOP, the city writ large remains deeply Democratic. President Biden defeated former President Trump by a 64-point margin in the city two years ago.

Melvin Prince, an African American business owner based in East Falls, said that he supports Oz because of entrepreneurship and the lack of attention local Democratic politicians have paid to the area. 

“The opportunity will only coexist when you have people from that community with those dollars to change their community,” said Prince, a longtime GOP voter. However, he noted that he is sitting out the governor’s race entirely. 

Oz’s attempt to win centrist voters is also likely to be on full display in less than two weeks when he and Fetterman take part in the lone debate of the general election campaign.

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump skirts testimony question in hostile 14-page Jan. 6 response

Former President Trump on Friday skirted the question of whether he would testify under subpoena in a 14-page response to the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol, instead doubling down on his disproven claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

Trump posted a letter to Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), the committee’s chairman, one day after the panel voted unanimously to subpoena him for testimony about his role in the events of Jan. 6, when supporters of the former president stormed the Capitol to halt the certification of the 2020 election results.

“This memo is being written to express our anger, disappointment, and complaint that with all of the hundreds of millions of dollars spent on what many consider to be a Charade and Witch Hunt, and despite strong and powerful requests, you have not spent even a short moment on examining the massive Election Fraud that took place during the 2020 Presidential Election, and have targeted only those who were, as concerned American Citizens, protesting the Fraud itself,” Trump wrote in the letter, which is dated Oct. 13.

The document includes numerous photos meant to demonstrate the crowd size at his Jan. 6 rally, as well as a state-by-state breakdown renewing baseless claims of election fraud in five states Trump lost to President Biden. 

There was no widespread fraud in the 2020 election — something Trump’s own campaign concluded. Courts on 62 different occasions ruled against Trump when he brought suits seeking to challenge the election based on fraud claims. 

Trump’s response is not a formal compliance with the subpoena, which has yet to be sent after the committee voted unanimously to compel testimony from Trump.

Such documents have to be served and, in the case of prior subpoenas sent by the Jan. 6 committee, include a list of topics the panel wishes to discuss in a formal deposition as well as a breakdown of documents and other evidence that must be turned over. 

In taking the vote in a public setting, lawmakers on the panel stressed the importance of hearing directly from Trump.

“We are obligated to seek answers directly from the man who set this all in motion,” said Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), the vice chair of the committee, shortly before the vote. “And every American is entitled to those answers.”

The subpoena is likely to kick off another legal battle for the former president. Others subpoenaed by the committee, including Trump’s chief of staff Mark Meadows, have gone to court to block the subpoena.

And some of those that have refused to comply have landed in legal trouble as well – though often only after a lengthy back and forth between committee lawyers and representation for those who have been subpoenaed.

But in the face of refusal to comply, the committee has moved to hold in contempt of Congress those that have rebuffed them, a matter that has to be taken up by the full House in order to make a formal criminal referral to the Justice Department.

The House has done that four times since the committee has begun its work, but the Justice Department has only acted on two of the referrals: one for former White House strategist Steve Bannon, and another for White House advisor Peter Navarro. Bannon was found guilty and is awaiting sentencing next week.

In other cases where the committee has subpoenaed high ranking figures – including five Republican lawmakers – the panel has done little to enforce its subpoenas. It also remains unclear whether they will subpoena Vice President Mike Pence.

Thursday’s hearing synthesized much of the information already presented by the committee, underscoring that Trump’s early declaration of victory on Election Night 2020 was premeditated; that he was aware he had lost the election but publicly claimed otherwise; that he wanted to join his supporters at the Capitol; and that he stood by while the attack unfolded. 

Trump’s letter rehashes many of the same claims he’s made in the more than 18 months since the riots. He claimed he had authorized thousands of National Guard troops to defend the Capitol, a claim that his former acting Defense secretary has refuted in testimony to the committee.

And he repeated his claims that election results in Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were all dubious because of reports of irregularities or suspicion about movement of ballots. But in each state, officials certified the results after audits and recounts. Testimony from Justice Department officials to the committee laid out how the department looked into each of Trump’s claims and was able to debunk or explain each of them.

Trump closed his letter to Thompson by defending the rioters as “great American patriots” who questioned the election results, even as the Justice Department has prosecuted numerous members of the mob for their actions that day.

“The people of this Country will not stand for unequal justice under the law, or Liberty and Justice for some. Election Day is coming. We demand answers on the Crime of the Century,” Trump wrote.

This story was updated at 10:04 a.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

Ron Johnson booed after curious answer at end of debate

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) received boos from the audience during his final debate on Thursday against Democratic Senate candidate Mandela Barnes while answering a question about what he found admirable about his opponent.

During the second and final debate held at Marquette University, Barnes answered the question first, saying that “the senator has proven to be a family man, and I think that’s admirable. You know, that’s absolutely to be respected. He speaks about his family. [He’s] done a lot to provide for them. I absolutely respect that.”

The senator also commended the lieutenant governor’s family and upbringing but later used the question to attack his opponent.

“I mean, likewise, I appreciate the fact that Lt. Gov. Barnes had loving parents, a school teacher, father who worked third shift. So he had a good upbringing,” Johnson said. 

“I guess what puzzles me about that is with that upbringing, why has he turned against America?” he asked before receiving boos from the audience.

The Wisconsin Senate race is considered one of the most closely watched races for the upper chamber this cycle and will play a significant role in whether Republicans can retake the majority there. Johnson is viewed as a particularly vulnerable Republicans, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss up.”

A Marquette University Law School poll released this week showed Johnson leading Barnes 52 percent to 46 percent among likely voters. 

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The Hill's Morning Report — Jan. 6 Committee makes closing argument against Trump

The House panel investigating the events of Jan. 6, 2021, used new and previously known evidence on Thursday to allege that former President Trump pursued a plan to try to overturn the 2020 election knowing he lost his bid for reelection and then encouraged a mob to attack the Capitol in an unlawful bid to cling to power (The Hill).

“The vast weight of evidence presented so far has shown us that the central cause of January 6th was one man, Donald Trump, who many others followed,” Vice Chairwoman Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) said in an opening statement. “None of this would have happened without him. He was personally and substantially involved in all of it.”

The nine-member committee voted unanimously to subpoena Trump to appear before the panel, an unlikely event that sparked debate and constitutional analysis (The Hill). 

The former president on Thursday lashed out at the panel on social media while close associates said he was tempted to appear if he could testify live.  

In its ninth and possibly final public presentation before the committee disbands at the end of this Congress, lawmakers released new details about the Trump administration’s ties to white supremacists, Trump’s influence over his most fervent supporters and his eagerness to join thousands of backers he knew were armed on a march to the Capitol to block his election defeat. 

The damning narrative, presented less than a month before the midterm elections, adds fuel to the Democrats’ warnings that Trump and his GOP allies — who continue to push false claims of a “stolen” election — pose a continuing threat to democracy. 

“He is required to answer for his actions,” said committee Chairman Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss). “He is required to answer to those police officers who put their lives and bodies on the line to defend our democracy.”

The subpoena is unlikely to bear fruit, as Trump has remained defiant throughout the 16-month investigation by the committee. No subpoena is planned for former Vice President Mike Pence, Thompson confirmed to reporters.

The former president responded to the panel’s resolution with a statement on Truth Social, asking: “Why didn’t the Unselect Committee ask me to testify months ago?”

“Why did they wait until the very end, the final moments of their last meeting?” he continued. “Because the Committee is a total ‘BUST’ that has only served to further divide our Country which, by the way, is doing very badly – A laughing stock all over the World?”

But Trump has reportedly told aides, “He favors doing so, so long as he gets to do so live, according to a person familiar with his discussions,” The New York Times reports. It remains unclear if the committee would agree.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: The Trump subpoena: what you need to know.

▪ Politico: The Jan. 6 committee plays truth and dare with Trump.

▪ The Washington Post: Insight: Experts see subpoena of Trump as a long long shot.

▪ The New York Times: Analysis: Jan. 6 panel vividly detailed the attack. Accountability is another matter.

Trump had already considered challenging the results of the election in late October, weeks before his defeat, according to members of the committee. He met with Tom Fitton of the conservative group Judicial Watch, who advised Trump to prematurely declare victory based solely on the votes cast on Election Day and assert that early and absentee ballots shouldn’t be counted.

Cheney and Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) called Trump’s thinking and actions “premeditated.”

“It was a plan concocted in advance to convince his supporters that he won,” Lofgren said.

The indictment of Trump included some never-before-seen video of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), then-Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), among other leaders in both parties, working their cell phones on Jan. 6 after being evacuated from the Capitol to a secure location. 

In footage captured by Alexandra Pelosi, the Speaker’s daughter and a documentary filmmaker who had been in the Capitol to record history, lawmakers are seen while seeking National Guard and police assistance from governors in neighboring states and appealing to the acting attorney general for a crackdown on the rioters so they could resume the Electoral College tally that hours later recorded Joe Biden as the president-elect (The New York Times and The Hill).

“Why don’t you get the president to tell them to leave the Capitol, Mr. Attorney General, in your law enforcement responsibility?,” Schumer barked into a phone as Pelosi joined in at his side. “A public statement that they should all leave.”

The video clips, interspersed with time-stamped footage of rioters surging into the Capitol, heightened a sense of the day’s violence and uncertainty and reinforced the panel’s argument that Trump’s hours-long delay in calling for the rioters to stand down had violated the Constitution and his oath of office.

The committee has not decided whether to make criminal referrals to the Department of Justiceinvolving multiple individuals. The department under Attorney General Merrick Garland is conducting its own investigation of the events before, during and after Jan. 6, Cheney said.

The panel will release a final report with recommendations for reforms, most likely in late November or December, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) told reporters (Axios).

Senate news on Thursday: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), 82, was taken to a hospital for overnight observation in suburban Virginia near Washington after complaining he felt unwell (The Hill).​​ The eight-term senator last year announced his intention to retire; his seat is to be filled after Election Day.

Related Articles

▪ The Hill: Five takeaways from the likely last Jan. 6 hearing.

▪ Vox: The Jan. 6 committee’s Trump subpoena might not succeed — but here’s what might.

▪ The Hill: Secret Service messages show they knew the crowd outside the Jan. 6 rally was armed.

▪ The New York Times: Cheney and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) could be giving their closing arguments before leaving Congress.

▪ Bloomberg News: Pelosi said she wanted to punch Trump in angry Jan. 6 video.

▪ The Washington Post: Jan. 6 panel scrutinizes Trump’s post-election military orders.  

▪ The Hill: Former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson: Trump told chief of staff Mark Meadows “this is embarrassing,” “I don’t want people to know that we lost.”

▪ The Hill: Trump’s GOP allies blast Jan. 6 panel’s issuing of subpoena.

▪ The Washington Post: Supreme Court rejects Trump request on Mar-a-Lago documents.

LEADING THE DAY 

➤ POLITICS

​​Economists who analyze the U.S. inflation picture talk about “demand destruction.” They’re not referring to the current political terrain, but that phrase, which describes a need to get Americans to lock up their wallets, could apply to the worries shared among Democratic leaders.

What if voter demand undergoes an economy-driven recalibration this fall that puts Republicans in charge of the House and Senate?

U.S. consumers are complaining about high prices but they are not moderating their spending on services, including air travel, hotels, restaurant meals and entertainment. As long as spending and inflation remain high and as long as wages are too robust to serve as a psychological damper on spending, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising its benchmark interest rates. 

Fed watchers expect another 75-basis-point hike in November and perhaps another in December, increasing the odds that the central bank’s moves drive the too-hot economy into recession. And with recession comes higher unemployment, which is ominous for American families and bad news for the political party that shoulders the inevitable blame. Some analysts believe the Fed will not cut interest rates until 2024 or 2025.

Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in September and were up 8.2 percent from a year ago, the government reported on Thursday. Last month offered little evidence that inflationary prices are easing. Excluding food and energy, the core consumer price index accelerated 0.6 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, meaning the yearly gain was the highest seen since August 1982 (CNBC).

September data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics pointed to stubbornly high prices and shrinking wages, which fell 0.1 percent and 3 percent year over year when adjusted for inflation. Housing costs for many Americans also eat up more of their budgets.

The Hill: Redfin says median asking rents increased by 9 percent nationwide in the past year to $2,002 per month.

Another large jump in food prices appeared in the September data. The food index rose 0.8 percent for the month, the same as in August, and was up 11.2 percent from a year ago. One minor upbeat note: energy prices fell 2.1 percent last month, including a 4.9 percent drop in gasoline. However, pump prices for regular gasoline rose nearly 20 cents per gallon this month, according to AAA.

If midterm contests in a few weeks hinge on pocketbook issues, Republican candidates have plenty of economic issues and anxieties with which to draw contrasts as voters fill in their ballots (The Hill). 

The administration’s reaction on Thursday to the latest CPI data was a white flag of concession. The talking point from the White House and members of President Biden’s Cabinet was that economic conditions may appear shaky in the United States, but they’re worse elsewhere in the world. It’s not exactly a message of solace or solution for many U.S. families.

“China’s economy is slowing. The EU is slowing. The U.K. is facing a number of challenges. The Fed is raising rates. Obviously, there is a possibility that we would have a recession,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told Bloomberg TV. “But as I see it, a recession is absolutely not inevitable. … This should not be a gloom and doom scenario.”

Biden, during a Thursday speech in Los Angeles about public transit, said inflationary pressures are felt most keenly at the gas pump, even though gas prices eased over the summer. “But the price of gas is still too high, and we need to keep working to bring it down,” he added. “We also need to make more progress bringing down the prices across the board.”

Perhaps the rare bit of good news on Thursday impacts recipients of Social Security benefits. Next year, they’ll see a cost-of-living increase of 8.7 percent, the government announced, intended to help them stay afloat on fixed incomes. Here are five things to know about that change, which on average will add $140 per month to Social Security checks (The Hill).

Democratic candidates have tried to appeal to seniors by touting improvements Congress and the White House secured under Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices and cap the annual maximum seniors will be charged for prescription drugs. A majority of Americans do not know about key legislative changes recently enacted by House and Senate Democrats, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey. 

The problem for Democrats is that voters can be impatient. The prescription drug negotiations provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act don’t go into effect until 2026 and Republicans are sure to note that inflation remains high despite the passage of the measure.

Biden, who is traveling the country trying to help candidates in his party by touting bills enacted on his watch, may not be breaking through with a persuasive narrative and details. He will summarize the Medicare drug changes during remarks today in California and Oregon.

Republican candidates have succeeded in capturing voters’ attention with a message about rising crime, arguing that Democrats want to defund the police and trample on gun owners’ rights, recent surveys indicate.

Pollsters note that while many Americans say they worry about nuclear risks because of Russia’s war with Ukraine and North Korea’s missile tests, they also say they’re more worried about rising gas prices than nuclear Armageddon (The Hill).  

As the saying goes, all politics is local.

Thursday’s national average price for regular gasoline was $3.91 per gallon, according to AAA. The highest gas prices are in Western states, many of which are governed by Democrats. The lowest pump prices are in parts of the GOP-dominated South. 

Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams (D) has turned to voting rights issues in an effort to mobilize voters of color in her bid to defeat Gov. Brian Kemp (R) (The Hill). Kemp leads by 5 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. First lady Jill Biden will campaign with Abrams today in Atlanta (The Hill).

▪ The Hill: Five things to watch in the Georgia debate tonight between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Senate challenger Herschel Walker in a suspenseful tossup contest. 

▪ The Hill’s Niall Stanage: In the battle for Senate control in 2023, three states may matter most on Nov. 8: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. … Note that Biden will host a Philadelphia fundraiser with Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman (D) on Oct. 20 as the race tightens against Republican Mehmet Oz (CNBC). 

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ ADMINISTRATION

The U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia has deteriorated over differences that include Riyadh’s decision with OPEC to cut petroleum production at a time of high prices, which gives Russia a boost, reports The Hill’s Alex Gangitano. Asked on Thursday what he has to say to Saudi Arabia, Biden responded, “We’re about to talk to you.” His elaboration to reporters: “Stay tuned.” 

On Thursday, the kingdom said in a statement that the Biden administration had earlier asked Saudi Arabia to delay by a month its decision on oil output, which would have gone beyond the U.S. midterm elections. Saudi Arabia declined, and in early October announced its largest supply cut since 2020, or 2 million barrels per day starting in November. That means tighter supplies and higher prices at a time of already high inflation and worries of a global recession, which angered U.S. lawmakers who are now calling for a “reevaluation” of relations with the Saudi kingdom (CNBC).

Based on national security concerns, the Federal Communications Commission plans to ban all sales in the United States of new Huawei and ZTE telecommunications devices, as well as some sales of video surveillance equipment from three other Chinese firms (Axios).

OPINION

■ Jan. 6 panel proves again Trump must be held accountable, by Timothy L. O’Brien, senior executive editor, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3MycYCc

■ John Fetterman is a disabled American who needs technology to do his job. So what? by David M. Perry, guest essayist, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/3MwNHYR

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14. ​​

The Senate convenes at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14.  

The president will be in Irvine, Calif., for an economic speech at 3:10 p.m. PDT. He will travel to Portland, Ore., for a grassroots volunteer event with Oregon Democrats at 7:10 p.m. local time. On Saturday, Biden will participate in a campaign reception for Oregon gubernatorial candidate Tina Kotek (D) in Portland. The president will deliver an economic speech in Portland, then fly to Wilmington, Del., where he will remain over the weekend.

Vice President Harris will convene student leaders in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building to discuss reproductive healthcare rights at 2:30 p.m. On Saturday, Harris will fly to Detroit to participate in a Michigan Democratic Party fundraiser with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D). She will join an event highlighting the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. Also on Saturday, Harris will travel to Southfield, Mich., for a voter education event with students. Later she will fly to Los Angeles for the remainder of the weekend.  

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend an International Monetary Fund breakfast among finance ministers. The secretary will join a meeting of the Eurogroup, made up of finance ministers of eurozone member states. Yellen will hold a 1:30 p.m. press conference, followed by her participation in the IMF development committee meeting. She will hold several bilateral meetings on the margins of the annual gatherings in Washington of the IMF and the World Bank.

The first lady is in Fort Benning, Ga., today and will head to Atlanta in the afternoon to stump for Democrat Abrams for governor (The Hill), then will fly to Florida. On Saturday for National Mammography Day, she will host an event at 11:45 a.m. with breast cancer survivor Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) at the University of Miami Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center in Broward County, Fla. 

🚀 The Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum’s west wing in Washington reopens today with eight renovated galleries while the east wing continues to receive a similar overhaul. Information HERE. The museum, one of the most popular in the nation’s capital, is in the midst of a seven-year renovation through 2025.

ELSEWHERE

➤ INTERNATIONAL 

Chinese President Xi Jinping is poised to secure an unprecedented third term as general secretary, China’s senior-most position. China’s ruling Communist Party on Sunday will begin its once-in-five-years Congress (Reuters and NPR). The New York Times recaps Xi’s rise to power.

Authorities in Beijing on Thursday quickly ended a rare protest against Xi as photos circulating on Twitter displayed two banners that briefly hung on an overpass in the Chinese capital expressing opposition to Xi’s zero-COVID-19 policy and authoritarian rule (CNN).

In one of the starkest signs yet that Russia is losing its grip on the territory it claims to have annexed from Ukraine, the Russian-appointed governor of a region in southern Ukraine on Thursday told residents to “take their children and flee” (Reuters).

Russian missile strikes continue to target civilians in Ukraine, raising the death toll to more than three dozen, and adding urgency to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call for more aid. The European Union said Thursday it would train Ukrainian soldiers on EU soil, while the White House said the U.S. is working to deliver two air-defense systems (The New York Times).

A long-term German project to create a European anti-missile shield that would boost protection for much of the continent has attracted written interest from at least 15 countries, mainly from the NATO military alliance, including the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. The move follows escalations by Russia in its war on Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s veiled threats against Europe and the United States (Bloomberg News).

▪ The New York Times: How two teenagers became the new faces of Iran’s protests.

▪ Reuters: South Korea scrambles fighters as North Korean military planes fly close to the border.

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

The World Health Organization expects COVID-19 cases to rise in Europe this winter. In some countries, the number of confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been climbing since September, according to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (The Hill). Thursday’s projection is important because European coronavirus trends have tended to foreshadow events in the United States.

▪ NPR: COVID-19: What the White House sees coming this winter.

▪ The Hill: The administration extends a COVID-19 public health emergency declaration for 90 days. 

Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech on Thursday announced their omicron COVID-19 boosters substantially increased protective antibodies against the dominant omicron BA.5 for adults, according to early human data (CNBC).

“These early data suggest that our bivalent vaccine is anticipated to provide better protection against currently circulating variants than the original vaccine and potentially help to curb future surges in cases this winter,” Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in a statement.

Information about COVID-19 vaccines and boosters can be found HERE.

▪ The Guardian: “Zero scent”: Could negative reviews of smelly candles hint at a COVID-19 surge?

▪ The New York Times: Nearly half of COVID-19 patients haven’t fully recovered months later, study finds.

🧠 New research published in “Nature” shows that when you’re sick, specific parts of your brain rapidly respond to illness and coordinate how your body fights it. Working in tandem with the body’s immune system, your brain helps your body heal (The Washington Post).

“I think it’s really an interplay between the two that’s fairly intimate and requires a lot of coordination,” Anoj Ilanges, a biologist at the Janelia Research Campus, said. “Figuring out this coordination and what it really means is a big question in better understanding our response to infection in general.”

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,064,798. Current average U.S. COVID-19 daily deaths are 328, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

THE CLOSER

And finally … 👏👏👏 Bravo to winners of this week’s Morning Report Quiz! We asked about October surprises in U.S. political history and readers delivered.

Here’s who Googled or guessed their way into The Hill’s championship trivia team: Pam Manges, Jeremy Serwer, Paul Harris, Patrick Kavanagh, Terry Pflaumer, Amanda Fisher, Jon Berck, David Butts, Stan Wasser, Jaina Mehta, Len Jones, Luther Berg, Robert Bradley, Steve James, Ed Shanahan, Jack Barshay, Stephen Delano and Dan Mattoon.

They knew that ​​in the final days of the 2000 presidential election, candidate George W. Bush had to do some damage control regarding his 1976 arrest for DUI.

Former Republican President William Howard Taft’s doomed 1912 reelection campaign sustained a blow a week before Election Day when then-Vice President James Sherman died.

While speaking to a donor audience, and with seven weeks left in the 2012 campaign, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney was recorded belittling “47 percent” of voters he said would back President Obama.

In the final weeks of the 1968 presidential race, Republican presidential nominee Richard Nixon sought to influence U.S. policy by secretly working to sabotage then-President Johnson’s plans to stage Vietnam peace talks.

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The Memo: Here are the three states that will decide control of the Senate

The crucial battles in the midterm elections are coming into sharp focus with less than four weeks to go.

Republicans are expected to prevail in their quest to retake the House majority. But the Senate is a different story.

Control of the upper chamber, currently split 50-50, is on a knife-edge. The fight will be decided by whoever can eke out victories in a handful of states.

Three states are more important than all others — not only because the races are close but because they give one party or the other their best chance to flip a seat.

Pennsylvania

The race in the Keystone State was guaranteed to be one of the nation’s most high profile from the moment Mehmet Oz — better known as TV’s “Dr. Oz”— won the Republican nomination, powered by the endorsement of former President Trump.

But Oz has struggled in the general election. Part of the problem has been his difficulties in uniting Republicans behind him after a divisive primary. He has also faced the constant accusation that he is an out-of-touch out-of-stater, given his wealth, his fame and his longtime residency in New Jersey.

Still, Oz has made significant progress in closing a Fetterman lead that was in the double digits in a couple of summer polls. 

Part of the issue may simply be GOP voters coming home. But Oz has also found traction with his attacks on Fetterman as purportedly soft on crime.

Fetterman, as Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor, also chairs the state’s Board of Pardons. The board has recommended far more commutations of life sentences during his tenure than before he took the helm. Fetterman evinces pride in his role as a criminal justice reformer. But some of the attacks have clearly hit the mark.

The real wild card, electorally speaking, is Fetterman’s health. 

The Democrat suffered a stroke earlier this year. 

He can sometimes mangle words, and he has auditory processing issues that often require him to used closed captioning — even though medical experts emphasize this problem should not be confused with cognitive impairment.

“Of all the issues, that has remained transcendent,” said Terry Madonna, the senior fellow in residence for political affairs at Millersville University, and a longtime expert on Pennsylvania politics. “The question of, ‘Is he able to serve?’ has remained a viable issue for the Oz campaign.”

Madonna noted that other issues remain salient, including crime, which advantages Republicans; and abortion, which advantages Democrats.

“I wouldn’t begin to predict who is going to win,” Madonna said.

Fetterman was leading by 3.4 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average on Thursday evening.

If he holds on to win, it will be a huge moment for Democrats as the GOP would need to pick up two other seats to take control of the Senate. Democrats would be able to afford one loss.  

The seat is being vacated by a retiring Republican, Sen. Pat Toomey.

Georgia

Republicans once had high hopes of notching a win in Georgia with a defeat of Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), who has only been in office since January 2021.

The state remains Republican leaning, even though Biden, Warnock and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) all won narrow victories in the 2020 cycle. Like all Democrats, Warnock is also running into the headwinds of inflation, Biden’s low approval ratings and the historic pattern in which a president’s party almost always loses seats in the first midterms of his tenure.

Warnock has a narrow lead in the polls, however. The RCP average puts him ahead of former football star Herschel Walker by 3.3 points. Data and polling site FiveThirtyEight gives Warnock a 60 percent chance of prevailing.

Warnock has a capacity to draw in moderate voters, something that he has reinforced with campaign ads focused on conspicuously nonpartisan issues like improvements to the port of Savannah and support for the state’s peanut farmers.

But above all, Warnock has been lucky in his opponent.

Walker, another Trump endorsee, had raised eyebrows even before being hit with scandal, thanks to idiosyncratic comments about issues like climate change.

The big drama in the race has come this month, with allegations from the mother of one of Walker’s children that he had previously paid for her to have an abortion.

Walker is running a vigorously anti-abortion campaign — he does not believe terminations should be legal even in cases of rape or incest — and so he now faces charges of hypocrisy. He denies paying for, or even knowing about, the woman’s abortion.

Warnock, a pastor at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist — the church where Dr. Martin Luther King served as co-pastor — has some problems of his own relating to a contentious custody battle. But they are less lurid and politically explosive than the accusations aimed at Walker.

The two will meet for a crucial debate on Friday night.

“The big question is whether either one of the two candidates makes a misstatement — the kind of misstatement that could be repeated” and go viral, said Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia. 

Given the closeness of the race, such an error “could be determinative” Bullock added.

The debate, to be held in Savannah, will be hosted by Nexstar Media, the parent company of The Hill.

Georgia is also unusual in that it requires a candidate to win more than 50 percent of the votes cast to avoid a runoff. The quest is complicated for Warnock and Walker by the presence of a third-party candidate, Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party.

“If the election were held today, I think Warnock would lead,” said Bullock. “But I doubt he would get a majority. We might well be heading for another vote in December.”

Nevada

Republicans uneasy about Pennsylvania and Georgia have one significant cause for optimism — and it comes in the Silver State.

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is, as of Thursday, the only incumbent Democratic senator trailing in the polls — albeit by a very narrow margin. She lags her Republican opponent Adam Laxalt by a little less than 2 points in the RCP average.

Laxalt is clearly identified with the pro-Trump “MAGA” wing of the GOP. But he is a former attorney general in the state, and his boosters argue he has broader appeal than some more fractious pro-Trump candidates in other states.

Cortez Masto has challenges, including an economy that was particularly susceptible to COVID-19 lockdowns because of how heavily it relies on the hospitality and gaming industries.

Cortez Masto, the only Latina to ever serve as a U.S. senator, is also not the most magnetic of candidates.

“She is not a very dynamic, charismatic individual at all, just as her predecessor [the late Sen. Harry Reid] was not,” said Jon Ralston, the CEO of the Nevada Independent, and one of the state’s best-known political journalists. “She is very disciplined and hard-working behind the scenes, but she is not going to wow too many voters. The base of the Democratic Party probably dislikes Laxalt more than they like her.”

But Ralston argues Laxalt has weaknesses too, and has only avoided the negative national attention visited on the likes of Oz because he gives few interviews beyond ideologically-friendly media outlets.

The race in Nevada will also be closely watched to see if the Democratic Party’s hold on Latino voters continues to weaken.

If that happens, it’s likely the end of the road for Cortez Masto. But such an outcome is far from certain.

“It’s the cliché of clichés in politics, but it really is going to come down to turnout,” said Ralston.

Source: TEST FEED1

Americans' nuclear fears surge to highest levels since Cold War

At a moment when the global COVID-19 pandemic is finally loosening its grip on the public consciousness as an object of existential dread, a new fear has swept in to supplant it: nuclear annihilation. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has stoked U.S. nuclear fears like no other event since the close of the Cold War, according to foreign policy scholars and public opinion curators. In poll after poll this year, a majority of Americans have said they believe Russian President Vladimir Putin may unleash nuclear weapons on Ukraine, as Putin himself has threatened. 

“The level of anxiety is something that I haven’t seen since the Cuban missile crisis,” said Peter Kuznick, a history professor and director of the Nuclear Studies Institute at American University, referring to the tense 1962 standoff between the United States and Soviet Union. “And that was short-lived. This has gone on for months now.” 

Nuclear unease surged with the Feb. 24 invasion, then spiked further when Putin put his nuclear forces on high alert days later. Tensions eased over the summer, as the Ukraine invasion faded from the headlines and Americans grew to accept the lingering war as a new normal. Fears rose again this month amid suggestions that Putin might resort to using nuclear weapons to stem mounting losses.   

Several polls in February and March found Americans increasingly concerned about imminent nuclear peril. In a new Reuters-Ipsos poll, released Monday, 58 percent of respondents said they fear the United States is headed toward nuclear war.  

“I don’t recall any time in the last 20 years where we’ve seen this sort of level of concern about the potential for nuclear apocalypse,” said Chris Jackson, senior vice president of Ipsos.  

The Ukraine invasion, with its attendant saber-rattling, marks a rare flare-up of nuclear angst in the post-Cold War era. Americans briefly feared nuclear conflict with North Korea in 2017, amid escalating rhetoric between then-President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. In the early 2000s, nuclear fears fueled a broader national panic over potential terror attacks after 9/11.  

Some scholars say the threat of nuclear conflict looms larger now than at any time since the close of World War II. The Doomsday Clock, a symbolic measure of humans’ proximity to extinction, stands at 100 seconds to midnight, the nearest the world has ever strayed to its hour of doom since the clock was first set in 1947. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists consider climate change and other perils in their calculus, but nuclear fears predominate. 

“We really are hanging on the hope that Putin is rational, and not suicidal, and not delusionary,” Kuznick said. “[President] Biden said this week Putin is a rational actor being given bad information. We hope he’s right. The problem is, we’re dealing with the future of life on our planet.” 

And what are the actual odds of nuclear war?  

“It’s very difficult to quantify the risk,” said Derek Johnson, managing partner of the anti-nuclear organization Global Zero, in an email interview. “Is it 1 percent? Two percent? Ten percent? I don’t know, and I don’t know any credible expert who claims to know either,” he said.  

“But I can say it’s a lot higher than we should be comfortable with, and likely higher now than it has been since the Cuban Missile Crisis, if only for the fact that the war in Ukraine is a cascade of opportunities for mistakes and miscalculations.”  

For all the current societal unease, foreign policy experts do not necessarily see a return to the bone-deep nuclear terror of the 1980s, when the Iron Curtain stood and many Americans feared that humanity’s extinction lay only a button’s push away. Nuclear fears emerged as a defining theme of that decade, typified by a 1982 anti-nukes march in New York City that drew 1 million people, and the nightmare-inducing 1983 television film The Day After, which depicted nuclear war and its grim fallout. 

“In the ‘80s, people lived it every day, and in the ‘60s even more, probably,” said Dina Smeltz, a senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Relations. 

The latter decade saw the Cuban missile crisis — the 60th anniversary of which arrives Sunday — unfold when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba. The ensuing confrontation with the Kennedy administration brought the nations to the brink of nuclear war.  

For Americans in 2022, by contrast, nuclear war is “kind of an abstract fear, compared to the very practical worry of staring at the gasoline pump and trying to figure out how to afford five-dollars-a-gallon gas,” said Jackson of Ipsos.  

Last spring, the annual Stress in America survey by the American Psychological Association and the Harris Poll found that 69 percent of respondents believed they were watching the beginning of World War III. Yet, as worrisome as that sounds, the same respondents said they were even more perturbed by supply chain issues and the price of groceries and gas.  

“I think things like money and inflation, things that really feel personal and hit home and have an immediate impact on their lives in an immediate way, I think that’s why they reach the top of the list,” said Vaile Wright, senior director of the Office of Health Care Innovation at the psychological association.  

On a philosophical level, nuclear obliteration and consumer prices are “different kinds of threats,” Smeltz said. “One is existential, one is pocketbook.” 

For most of the past three decades, the threat of nuclear war has sat quietly on the backburner of American consciousness, a concern so remote that the psychological group didn’t think to ask about it in the annual poll. Following the Ukraine invasion, the association ran a second poll.  

In regular surveys dating to 2017, Ipsos has asked Americans to rank their top worries. In that span, nuclear concerns have ebbed and flowed, but no more than 21 percent of respondents have ever listed nuclear conflict among their three top fears.  

When Johnson started work at Global Zero in 2010, he recalled, “the fundamental challenge was convincing people this was still a problem. To the extent that anyone was thinking about nuclear weapons at all, most folks in the West assumed that when the Berlin Wall came tumbling down, the worst was over and these weapons were on their way out.” 

Absent nuclear concerns, Americans worried about other things. Not surprisingly, the COVID-19 pandemic preoccupied the nation through most of 2020 and 2021, consistently cited in Ipsos polls as an overarching issue.   

Before the pandemic, “it was a bunch of things,” Jackson said. “Sometimes it was immigration, sometimes it was health care, sometimes it was climate change. Because, frankly, there wasn’t anything people were too worried about.” 

Amir Afkhami, associate professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at the George Washington University, said his Beltway patients seem more concerned about midterm elections and the economy than “Putin dropping a bomb.”  

Nonetheless, he fears the specter of nuclear conflict could seed mental health issues, especially coming on the heels of COVID-19, and particularly for the young. 

“For adults of a certain age, we have some exposure to this, we can contextualize it on the basis of our experience,” he said. “We have a new generation that has never experienced that potential for Armageddon.” 

Source: TEST FEED1

Here's why inflation isn't slowing

Inflation accelerated again in September, defying the expectations of economists and lingering at the highest levels in decades.

Despite rapid rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, an unraveling global economy and slowing U.S. growth, prices have kept rising at rapid rates. 

Prices rose 0.4 percent in September, according to consumer price index (CPI) data released Thursday, marking the second straight month of accelerating inflation. The annual inflation rate dropped slightly to 8.2 percent, but remained near levels not seen since the 1980s.

Here are five reasons why inflation keeps rising even as the economy slows.

A strong labor market

The U.S. has added jobs at a rapid pace throughout 2022 as businesses struggled to fill a record number of open positions. The combination of historically high job openings, steady consumer spending and federal stimulus gave workers leverage in the job market.

As a result, millions of Americans were able to find better work for higher pay two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic claimed 21 million jobs. But the shortage of jobseekers had forced business to boost wages — and in some cases, prices.

As the Fed hikes interest rates, economists expect the job market to weaken and eventually force inflation down as fewer households can afford to keep up their spending.

“The labor market is holding steady for now, but high inflation and rising interest rates are influencing both business and worker behavior,” wrote ZipRecruiter lead economist Sinem Buber in a Thursday analysis.

“As the costs of essentials rise, consumers may have less discretionary income to spend on big-ticket items and luxuries.”

Housing shortage drives prices higher

A national shortage of affordable housing is putting pressure on American budgets and weighing heavily on inflation figures. The recovery from the COVID-19 recession has only made it worse.

Shelter costs rose 0.7 percent in September alone and 8 percent over the past year as rents rise throughout the U.S. and Fed rate hikes push more Americans out of the housing market.

While the Fed intends to slow activity in the housing sector by jacking up mortgage rates, the resulting slowdown in home sales has forced would-be homebuyers into a crowded rental market, where the number of affordable apartments and rental homes has long fallen short of demand.

“The key swing story is going to be shelter … given it is the largest component of inflation,” explained James Knightley, chief U.S. economist at ING.

The slow healing of supply chains

Supply chains are far less stressed now than they were in 2021, when successive waves of COVID-19 variants, lockdowns in China, shipping backlogs, material shortages and a glut of new spending added fuel to inflation.

Inventories are rising, delivery times are more prompt and consumers are shifting their spending away from goods in scarce supply.

But experts say manufacturers, suppliers and transporters are still working through the scarring from years of deepening supply strain stress and keeping prices higher because of it.

“Some commentators have claimed that inflationary supply chain dynamics have already eased but this characterization still seems premature,” wrote Skanda Amarnath and Alex Williams of Employ America, a research nonprofit.

“Delivery times may no longer be increasing at a historic pace, but they still remain at historically elevated levels. We still have yet to see sustained compression in delivery times that would be indicative of a healing supply chain,” they continued.

Whipsawing gasoline and energy prices driven by the war in Ukraine have also put pressure on suppliers and added uncertainty to their outlooks, especially as the world braces for prices to rebound over the winter.

Stubborn profit margins

Businesses are facing higher costs for both supplies and labor thanks to a mix of shortages and higher consumer demand.

However, the increased prices for some goods and services seem to be much higher than the growth of wages for the workers involved and the price of raw materials, according to some economists and policymakers.

Fed Vice Chairwoman Lael Brainard argued in a Tuesday speech that sales margins in the automobile and retail goods sectors are running much higher than they should be, given the costs suppliers and producers are facing. 

In other words, she argued, businesses are charging more than they theoretically should be for certain products.

“The return of retail margins to more normal levels could meaningfully help reduce inflationary pressures in some consumer goods, considering that gross retail margins are about 30 percent of total sales dollars overall,” Brainard said.

“There is ample room for margin recompression to help reduce goods inflation as demand cools, supply constraints ease, and inventories increase.”

Lagging impact of rate hikes

Though the economy has slowed since the Fed began raising interest rates, most economists believe we haven’t even seen the beginning of the impact higher borrowing costs will have on the economy — let alone inflation figures.

“It normally takes between 12-18 months for changes in monetary policy to start to have a pronounced impact on inflation and the economy. The Fed has been raising interest rates for less than nine months, and aggressively so for less than six months, so the delayed impact on prices is not unexpected,” wrote Cailin Birch, global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, in a Thursday analysis.

Some experts fear that the Fed’s insistence on raising rates even further at upcoming meetings in November and December could be a devastating mistake, particularly as some supply-driven sources of inflation continue to ease.

It can often take several months for price reductions in the real economy to show up in CPI data, meaning the Fed may overshoot inflation without realizing it at the time.

“The greater danger now is that policymakers are ignoring clear evidence that inflation pressure is fading, and are instead waiting for lagging indicators—the inflation data themselves—to give the all-clear,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a Thursday analysis.

Source: TEST FEED1

Five things to watch as Warnock, Walker debate in Georgia

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and his Republican rival, Herschel Walker, are set to meet for the first — and only — time on the debate stage Friday in Savannah with fewer than four weeks to go before Election Day.

The race in Georgia has emerged as one of the most, if not the most, competitive Senate contests of the 2022 midterms as Republicans look to recapture control of the upper chamber less than two years after being relegated to the minority. While Warnock holds the lead in most public polling, Walker has begun to close the gap, despite facing a stream of controversies.

Here are five things to watch as Warnock and Walker face off.

Does Walker exceed his own expectations?

Warnock has a long history of public speaking; he has served for years as a pastor and went toe-to-toe on the debate stage in 2020 with former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.). 

Walker, on the other hand, is a former professional football player who has been prone to verbal gaffes on the campaign trail. Perhaps because of this, he has purposefully set a low bar for himself ahead of the debate.

“I’m this country boy, you know. I’m not that smart,” Walker said last month. “And he’s a preacher. He’s a smart man, wears these nice suits. So he is going to show up and embarrass me at the debate Oct. 14, and I’m just waiting to show up and I’m going to do my best.”

Call it managing expectations, but one of the biggest questions heading into Friday is whether Walker can rise to the occasion. 

A strong performance could help quell concerns about Walker and his grasp of key issues and potentially reshape assumptions about the former NFL star in the final stretch of his campaign. 

How does Warnock deal with Biden?

Warnock won a tight race in 2020, but he’s also facing a very different political environment this time around: Former President Trump is no longer in the White House, Democrats control both chambers of Congress and Republicans have sought to tie him as closely to President Biden as possible.

While Warnock has emphasized bipartisanship and his independence from the White House, Republicans have painted a very different picture of the incumbent senator. 

Walker and his campaign have repeatedly derided what they have dubbed the “Warnock-Biden agenda,” while GOP groups like the National Republican Senatorial Committee have cast the Georgia Democrat as little more than a rubber stamp for an unpopular president.

The Friday debate could give Warnock the chance to convince skeptical voters that that’s not the case. 

Of course, that will also require some restraint. Embracing Biden and his agenda too closely will only fuel more Republican attacks, while distancing himself from the president too much could isolate Democratic base voters who are eager to keep the Senate majority in order to further Biden’s agenda.

Does it get personal?

The contest between Walker and Warnock has hinged on the candidates’ characters perhaps more than any other Senate race this year. 

Walker has repeatedly faced questions about his business record and personal life, including allegations of domestic abuse and the revelation that he fathered three previously undisclosed children despite railing against absentee fathers.

And little more than a week ago, Walker ran up against allegations that he had paid for his then-girlfriend to have an abortion in 2009 — a claim that he has denied, albeit one that has fueled a litany of criticism. 

Warnock has so far been pretty subdued in his remarks on the allegations against Walker. Whether that changes on the debate stage, however, remains a key question. While Republicans and some Democrats say that Warnock would be wise to avoid personal attacks, the debate also offers him the opportunity to put Walker on the spot just weeks before Election Day.

At the same time, Republicans have sought to highlight domestic violence allegations against Warnock related to a 2020 altercation in which his ex-wife accused the senator of running over her foot. 

While police found no evidence to support that claim, the allegation could allow Walker to return fire should the debate become personal.

Does Trump come up at all?

Trump eagerly backed Walker in the Republican nominating contest, handing him an early endorsement that ultimately contributed to the former football star’s primary victory.

But since then, the former president has kept a relatively low profile in the general election match-up between Warnock and Walker — and many Republicans have been grateful for that, believing that it has allowed Walker to focus more on his own messaging than on Trump’s.

But Trump still looms large over Georgia. 

Not only did he help boost Walker to the Republican nomination, he campaigned heavily against Gov. Brian Kemp (R) in the GOP gubernatorial primary earlier this year and is still facing a criminal investigation in Fulton County over his and his allies’ efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the state.

Such a topic could feasibly come up on Friday night, especially given that Democrats are hoping to cast the 2022 midterms as an effort to safeguard American democracy from Trump’s efforts to unravel it. 

At the same time, a new super PAC sanctioned by Trump, MAGA Inc., has begun spending money in Georgia, hoping to boost Walker ahead of Election Day. That could also give rise to more questions about Walker’s ties to the former president. 

Will the debate change anything?

In their purest form, candidate debates are meant to offer a contrasting view of two rivals and their platforms as voters weigh whom to elect. 

But many strategists and experts are skeptical of just how much debates matter these days. The country is deeply polarized, and many voters reflexively flock to their parties’ respective corners. At the same time, debates are often treated as media spectacles, where soundbites and insults attract much of the attention.

And with the Georgia debate, there’s the question of its timing. 

“It’s 7 p.m. on a Friday night,” one Republican strategist involved in Georgia politics said. “People are getting off work, they’re going out to dinner, they’re unwinding from the week. We’re not talking about Friday night football here.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Five takeaways from the final Barnes-Johnson debate in Wisconsin

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and his Democratic challenger Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes on Thursday faced off in their second and final televised debate, an hour-long discussion that featured lively back-and-forths between the two men.

The two Senate candidates took jabs at each other over their personal records and work and painted each other as out-of-touch with Wisconsin voters — exchanges that often prompted both cheers and boos from the Marquette University audience. 

The Wisconsin Senate election is one of a handful of battleground races that will determine whether Republicans regain control of the Senate next year. Johnson has long been considered one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans but in recent weeks polls have showed him ahead of Barnes.

Here’s five takeaways from the final Wisconsin Senate debate:

Attacks get personal

Neither candidate held back on Thursday and at times the attacks got personal.

Barnes accused Johnson of lining his own pockets in office. Johnson called Barnes “a performer.”

Johnson said Barnes “never signed the front of a paycheck. He doesn’t have a clue how to create jobs, he certainly doesn’t have a clue how the economy works and how you run a business.” 

Barnes shot back that “Senator Johnson has taken a whole lot of credit for his business-in-law,” a reference to the plastics company Pacur that was started by the senator and his brother-in-law.

“The biggest achievement in business was Ron Johnson saying ‘I do.’ He married into his business. He didn’t start that from the ground up,” the state lieutenant governor said.

In the closing question of the night, the moderators asked both candidates to say something positive about their opponent. Barnes said he admired Johnson as a “family man.”

Johnson complimented Barnes’s upbringing before saying, “I guess what puzzles me about that is with that upbringing, why has he turned against America?” as the crowd booed.

Candidates try to paint each other as out of touch

Both candidates worked to portray themselves as the one who understood the struggles of Wisconsin’s workers while painting the other as out of touch.

“I fully understand how high the cost of gas is because I fill up my own gas tank. I drive myself around the state unlike Lt. Gov. Barnes, who is chauffeured around by State Patrol, costing taxpayers over $600,000 through last November. He used them 13 and a half hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year. That’s not only excessive, that’s abusive [of] the taxpayer money,” Johnson said.

Barnes suggested that Johnson held a double standard, pointing to the senator’s own travel in and out of Florida. 

“He fails to mention that taxpayers had to foot the bill for his private plane trips between D.C. and his $3 million mansion in Florida,” Barnes said. 

Johnson leans into inflation on heels of Labor Dept data

The Wisconsin Republican leaned into the issue of rising prices on the heels of Labor Department data released Thursday that showed inflation increasing for the second month in a row and remaining at a four-decade high.

Republicans believe the economy and inflation will weigh most heavily on voters’ minds and on Thursday Johnson turned to the issue when pressed about past statements on social security. 

“I want to save Social Security. I want to save Medicare. The greatest threat to any government program is the massive, out-of-control deficit spending and our growing debt,” Johnson said during the debate.

“The first table stakes is stop inflation. You have to do that first and then grow our economy,” he added later. “The number one component with solution to all these problems is growing our economy. Under Biden, we just had two quarters of negative growth because they don’t have a clue how to run an economy, and they are continuing to deficit spend.”

National issues of abortion, crime take center stage

Much of the debate focused on national issues like abortion, which Democrats believe will help propel them to victory in November, and crime, which Republicans have been using as a cudgel against their opponents this year. 

Johnson suggested that Barnes held extreme positions on the abortion, alleging that the Democrat saw no limitations on the medical procedure.

“The extreme position when it comes to abortion is the one that the lieutenant governor holds, which would allow abortions up to the moment of birth. Think of that. That is not where Wisconsinites are,” the senator said.

Barnes on the other hand suggested that in “Ron Johnson’s America, women don’t get to make the best choices for their health” and targeted the senator over sponsoring federal legislation restricting abortions.

Johnson also tried to put Barnes on defense on the issue of crime, saying that his opponent supported defunding law enforcement and was to blame for riots in Wisconsin. Barnes suggested the senator was a hypocrite, pointing to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

“140 officers injured, one crushed in a revolving door. Another hit in the head with a fire extinguisher,” Barnes said, later adding “So this talk about support for law enforcement. It’s not real. It’s not true.” 

Biden figures prominently, Trump conspicuously absent from debate

President Biden figured prominently in the debate with Johnson casting himself as a foil to the commander-in-chief, arguing that the president had made the southern border porous, had an administration responsible for negative economic growth and had contributed to overspending within the federal government.

At the same time, former President Trump was mentioned only very briefly, despite the debate coming just hours after the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot held their latest hearing on Thursday and voted to subpoena the former president. 

Barnes has sought to tie Johnson to the Capitol riot during the debates, an issue which has put the senator on defense, especially given that the House select panel provided evidence earlier this year indicating that a staff member of Johnson’s office wanted to provide a slate of fake electors to former Vice President Pence’s office. The senator has denied any involvement in those efforts.

Source: TEST FEED1

Pelosi said before insurrection that she would 'punch' Trump if he came to Capitol: footage

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said on the day of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection that she would “punch [then-President Trump] out” if he came to the Capitol after his rally at the Ellipse. 

CNN aired footage taken by filmmaker Alexandra Pelosi, the Speaker’s daughter, on “Anderson Cooper 360” on Thursday, showing how multiple congressional leaders reacted to the day’s events. 

Footage showed Pelosi remarking to her staff as Trump spoke at the Ellipse rally, which preceded the Capitol riot, that Trump should not come to the Capitol as Congress prepared to certify President Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election. 

“If he comes, I’m gonna punch him out,” Pelosi said. “I’ve been waiting for this, for trespassing on the Capitol grounds. I’m gonna punch him out, and I’m gonna go to jail and I’m gonna be happy.” 

The House select committee investigating the attack released some clips of the footage at its hearing on Thursday, but CNN aired a more expansive version of the recording. 

At one point, a staff member tells Pelosi that the Secret Service told Trump that they do not have the resources to protect him at the Capitol, so he seemed to not be coming. 

“Tell him if he comes here, we’re going to the White House,” Pelosi said after Trump told the attendees of his rally to walk to the Capitol and that he would join them.

Source: TEST FEED1