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McCarthy made fellow Republican cry in post-Jan. 6 meeting: book

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) engaged in an argument after the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection in which he yelled at Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) about protecting Republicans from former President Trump, making her cry, The Washington Post reported. 

The Post reported that McCarthy and Herrera Beutler met in his office on Feb. 25 of last year, during which he said he was “taking all the heat” to protect people from Trump and that he alone was holding the Republican Party together. 

The report is based on an excerpt of a new book from Post reporter Karoun Demirjian and Politico reporter Rachel Bade, “Unchecked: The Untold Story Behind Congress’s Botched Impeachments of Donald Trump,” which is set to be released next week. 

“I have been working with Trump to keep him from going after Republicans like you and blowing up the party and destroying all our work!” McCarthy reportedly told Herrera Beutler. 

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Herrera Beutler started crying and apologized for not notifying him in advance that she confirmed to media organizations that McCarthy called Trump on Jan. 6 to urge him to tell the rioters to leave the Capitol. 

McCarthy told her that she should have come to him and that “this is no way to thank me.” 

“What did you want me to do? Lie?” Herrera Beutler said. “I did what I thought was right.” 

McCarthy and Herrera Beutler denied the report in a joint statement to the Post, saying that they know it is wrong because they were the only two in the room for the conversation. 

“Beyond multiple inaccuracies — it is dramatized to fit an on-screen adaptation, not to serve as a document of record,” they said. 

Demirjian and Bade said in the book that their reporting was based on conversations with a person who was in the room during the argument and multiple lawmakers who said they heard an account of the argument from McCarthy. 

“McCarthy’s tirade against Herrera Beutler was just the start of what would become a GOP-wide campaign to whitewash the details of what happened on January 6 in the aftermath of the second impeachment,” they wrote. 

Trump staunchly opposed the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach him over his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection, backing primary challengers to those who ran for reelection. Most of those who voted to impeach, including Herrera Beutler, were either defeated in their primary or chose not to run for reelection.

Source: TEST FEED1

The Memo: Biden faced with growing gulf between warring Russia, Ukraine

The Biden administration is confronting an odd paradox in Ukraine — Kyiv’s unexpected successes could be making peace less likely anytime soon.

Ukrainian forces have taken back around 2,000 square miles of territory in recent weeks that had been previously seized by Russia, stunning the Kremlin. The Ukrainians went on to score a substantive and symbolic win with an explosion that partially destroyed the Kerch Strait Bridge on Saturday.

But those developments have infuriated Russian President Vladimir Putin and may have contributed to pressure from Russian hard-liners to intensify the raw aggression of the war effort. 

Russia hit at least 11 Ukrainian cities with missile strikes on Monday. Putin cast the shelling as retribution for the “terrorist” attack on the bridge, which he had personally opened in 2018.

Meanwhile, speculation that an increasingly embattled Putin might resort to some form of nuclear weapon continues to swirl. 

Last week, President Biden suggested the world was closer to a nuclear “Armageddon” than at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 — though White House aides later clarified that U.S. intelligence assessments of the likelihood of Russia using nuclear weapons had not changed.

The upshot of it all is a broadening gulf between the warring nations on anything resembling a peace deal. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will surely be reluctant to offer painful concessions, in the form of a surrender of territory, when the tide of the war seems to be moving in his nation’s direction. 

Zelensky, along with the international community at large, poured scorn on the quasi-referendums that were conducted under Russian armed occupation in four eastern regions of Ukraine late last month.

Putin, for his part, cannot countenance accepting a loss in the invasion that he launched in the face of international condemnation in February. To do so would not only stain his reputation internally; it could put his survival as president at risk.

So, for the moment, there is no obvious end in sight.

“If Russia pulls its troops out, the war is over — so, conceptually, it’s not like this is so complicated,” said Yoshiko Herrera, a professor of political science and a Russia expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “But, practically speaking in terms of what is likely to happen, Ukraine seems quite dedicated to preserving their sovereignty and nation, because it looks like they’re winning. And Russia seems committed to continuing the fight.”

The signs are, for now, pointing toward greater escalation if anything.

Late last month, the Russian president said that comments appearing to allude to the possibility of a nuclear strike were “not a bluff.” He also argued that the American atomic bombings of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during the Second World War offered a “precedent” for such a move.

Monday’s strikes by Russia brought fresh condemnation from Biden, renewed unity on the part of most of the international community, and calls from Zelensky for more help.

In a statement, Biden said the U.S. “strongly condemns” the missile strikes. The president added that the attacks “demonstrate the utter brutality of Mr. Putin’s illegal war on the Ukrainian people.”

Biden called on Putin to remove his troops from Ukraine — which clearly is not going to happen anytime soon — and said that the most recent developments only strengthened Washington’s resolve to “stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

Biden and Zelensky also spoke by phone Monday, with the White House’s account of the call saying that Biden had “pledged to continue providing Ukraine with the support needed to defend itself, including advanced air defense systems.”

Tuesday will see an emergency, virtual meeting of the Group of Seven of leading industrialized nations. Zelensky will address the gathering.

In one example of dynamics shifting in a way that might ultimately encourage peace, two of the biggest powers sympathetic to Russia, India and China, called for de-escalation in the wake of Monday’s missile attacks.

India’s external affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, speaking during a visit to Australia, said that the war “does not serve the interests of anybody,” according to The Associated Press. China’s foreign affairs ministry noted that “all countries deserve respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Herrera said those statements were significant, and part of a broader picture that would be discouraging to Putin.

“I think the support from India and China in general has not been as strong as he would have wanted. And now, if you are India or China, why would you tie yourself to a loser? Why not wait and see how things are going to play out?”

She also emphasized that Russia is much more dependent upon China than vice versa.

“At the start, I feel a lot of people were worried about China’s support for Russia. But I would characterize China’s support as lukewarm at best — and unlikely to continue, the worse things get for Russia. I don’t see why China would risk much for Russia.”

In the same speech last week in which Biden expressed concern about “Armageddon,” he also mused on what Putin’s “off ramp” might be.

There was never an obvious answer to that question — barring outright defeat for Moscow — and the intervening days have made it even harder to discern.

In a Monday speech, Putin pledged with macabre understatement that future Russian reaction to what he characterized as “terrorist attacks on our territory” would be “tough.”

“No one should have any doubt about it,” he added.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

Source: TEST FEED1

Democratic optimism grows in battle for House

With a month remaining before the midterm elections, House Democrats are in a position where few expected them to be even just a few months ago: competitive.

While the nation’s top political handicappers remain confident that Republicans will win control of the lower chamber in November, the expected margins have shrunk considerably heading into the home stretch.

The shift in momentum is raising Democratic hopes that they can minimize their losses; better their odds — if they do lose the gavel — of retaking it two years from now; and make life tougher for potential Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who’s already struggling to bridle the more bombastic impulses of his most conservative wing. 

“We’re increasingly optimistic about our ability to hold the House,” Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) told reporters Friday in the Capitol. 

Privately, Democrats acknowledge the fierce winds in their face as they attempt to defy history and keep their majority in a midterm cycle that routinely spells doom for the party of the incumbent president.

President Biden’s approval rating is underwater. Inflation has tormented low- and middle-income consumers, particularly when it comes to household essentials like food and fuel. The stock market is down. And a shooting war in Europe has added to the gloomy sense of a world gone off the rails. 

Add to that list almost three dozen Democratic retirements, and it appears to be a toxic environment for a majority party fighting to cling to power. McCarthy, encouraged by Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) victory in Virginia a year ago, predicted the GOP would pick up 60 seats — roughly the same number won by Republicans in the rout of 2010. 

Yet the odds of a red wave appear increasingly remote as November approaches, according to election experts. Over the summer, prominent campaign forecasters made numerous shifts in their predictions, most of them steadily in favor of Democratic candidates. 

Last week, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, continued the trend, shifting its forecast in 10 House races, seven of them in favor of Democrats. A day later, analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper based at the University of Virginia, shifted six House seats, four favoring Democrats. 

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said he’d predicted earlier in the cycle that the GOP gains would be somewhere between 20 and 30 seats. “I’m now thinking somewhere in the teens,” he said. 

“Republicans remain in the driver’s seat to flip the House,” Kondik said, “but it does not look at the moment like some sort of big wave.” 

Amy Walter, Cook’s editor-in-chief, noted a key difference between this year and 2010: Then, polls showed Republicans had a 13-point advantage among “persuadable” voters. The figure this year is 3 points. 

“In order to make significant gains, Republicans would need to win in districts that Biden carried by 6 points or more,” Walter wrote in her latest analysis. “Even in big ‘wave’ years, it’s hard to flip districts that are deeply red or deeply blue.”

Republicans need to net only four seats to win back control of the House. But the margins could prove crucial for McCarthy and other GOP leaders when it comes to managing a restive right flank that’s already clamoring to impeach Biden, slash federal spending and take on the Washington establishment — even its own leadership. The larger the cushion, the more insulated GOP leaders will be from the conservative forces that had nudged the two previous Republican Speakers into early retirements. 

The reasons for the late momentum shift are various. 

Democrats, after months of public infighting, secured a series of legislative wins late in the summer, including a massive climate, health care and tax bill, which helped to boost Biden’s approval rating. Gas prices, after soaring to over $5 per gallon in June, have since fallen below $4. A number of Republican candidates have campaigned from the fringe and endorsed conspiracy theories, including the myth that the 2020 election was “stolen” from former President Trump, which could alienate moderate Republicans and independents in those districts.

And Democrats surprised even themselves in August with two long-shot victories in House special elections, one in New York and the other in Alaska, where Republicans have held the seat for five decades. The combination has allowed Democrats to fundraise even late in the cycle, while prompting increasingly bullish predictions from Democratic leaders about the outcome in November. 

“I can’t tell you today what specific seats we’ll win,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told a group of reporters gathered in his Capitol office just before the long midterm recess. “But I think we’re going to hold the majority, [and] we may pick up a number of seats.

“The momentum, I think, is with us.”

Whether those trends hold, however, remains an open question, particularly given a volatile economy that remains the top issue on voters’ minds. Inflation continues to hound consumers, and a recent decision by OPEC+ nations to slash oil production has increased the chances that gas prices will rise in the weeks leading into November. After the late-summer bump, Biden’s approval rating has already leveled out. 

“I do think it’s reasonable to look out for a potential late break to the Republicans — that does sometimes happen in midterms,” Kondik said. “As it stands now, the battlefield is big and involves the Republicans playing much more offense, but many of the most vulnerable Democratic seats remain in play.” 

A wildcard in the election debate is the Supreme Court’s decision, passed down in June, to eliminate abortion rights. The ruling has energized female voters around the country, and it was thought to play a major role in the Democrats’ special election win in New York. Lawmakers say the effects of the decision are tangible on the campaign trail, where they’re seeing a boost in enthusiasm among women and other Democratic voters. 

“Momentum turned in favor of Democrats the moment the Supreme Court decided to be a reactionary, partisan court and take away women’s reproductive health,” Schiff said. “All of that is a good indicator this is not going to be a traditional midterm of a president’s first term.”

Several factors are complicating the predictions heading into November. Polling in House races is notoriously scarce outside of the campaigns themselves. The ubiquity of cellphones has made voters more difficult to reach. Conservative voters, distrustful of pollsters and the media, are less likely to participate in public surveys. And the coronavirus pandemic remains a deadly presence, affecting the daily routines of millions of Americans.

In the eyes of some election experts, though, the deciding factor may be the simple question of which party more successfully dictates the flavor of the national dialogue in the final weeks. 

“If it’s economy, inflation, gas prices, crime, etc., that’s where Republicans want to be,” Kondik said. “If it’s abortion, Republican foibles, Trump, etc., that’s what Democrats want.”

Mychael Schnell contributed.

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump pushes for Russia-Ukraine talks, complicating GOP politics

Former President Trump has emerged as the most prominent advocate in the United States of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to broker a cease-fire as hostilities between the two sides ratcheted up over the weekend.

The former president’s public push for some kind of truce cuts against the public views of many Republicans, who have backed support for Ukraine in the war, and reflects some of the schisms within the party between Trump and his staunchest defenders and other prominent conservatives.

Trump has used both his social media platform, Truth Social, and recent public appearances to broadly criticize the Biden administration’s handling of the war. Trump has not offered many specifics on how he would approach the situation differently, other than to declare Russian President Vladimir Putin would not have invaded if Trump were still in office.

But while the Biden administration has been adamant that it will not push for negotiations that Ukraine does not support, Trump has been vocal that the two sides should broker a cease-fire, even suggesting at one point that he could be involved in the talks.

“With potentially hundreds of thousands of people dying, we must demand the immediate negotiation of the peaceful end to the war in Ukraine, or we will end up in World War III and there will be nothing left of our planet all because stupid people didn’t have a clue,” Trump told supporters Saturday at a rally in Arizona. “They really don’t understand … what they’re dealing with. The power of nuclear. They have no idea what they’re doing.”

Those comments came days after Trump claimed during a speech in Miami that his relationship with Putin would have prevented the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February.

“You would never in a million years — they wouldn’t be there. So sad,” Trump said at an event organized by the America First Policy Institute. “When I see all these people being killed, it’s got to stop. They’ve got to negotiate a deal. It’s got to stop.”

Trump last month posted on Truth Social in the wake of damage to the Nord Stream pipelines, which carry natural gas from Russia to parts of Europe, that world leaders should not escalate the situation.

“Be strategic, be smart (brilliant!), get a negotiated deal done NOW,” Trump wrote. “Both sides need and want it. The entire World is at stake. I will head up group???”

While it is easy to dismiss Trump’s remarks, he remains a favorite for the GOP presidential nomination, a contest expected to intensify after the midterms. If he doubles down on some of his positions, it could have unpredictable consequences on the politics of arming and aiding Ukraine next year.

One GOP strategist said Trump’s views won’t be a major factor in the midterms for Republicans with domestic issues dominating the campaign. But if Republicans retake majorities in both chambers of Congress, Trump could turn up pressure on lawmakers to adopt some of his rhetoric.

For now, experts believe the former president’s views are not widely shared at this juncture given public support for Ukraine remains high, and the U.S. and its allies have been unwilling to budge on ceding Ukrainian territory to Russia as part of any negotiation.

“What I can tell you is that Mr. Putin started this war and Mr. Putin could end it today — simply by moving his troops out of the country,” John Kirby, a spokesperson with the National Security Council, said Sunday, adding that Putin has shown “no indications” that he’s willing to sit down and negotiate an end to the war.

Other prominent Republicans have also shied away from direct calls for negotiating an end to the war in the way Trump has, instead focusing on recent missteps by President Biden and reinforcing the need to support Ukraine.

“The destruction today in Kyiv is horrific — allies and partners must get Ukraine the missile defenses and long-range weapons it has asked for,” GOP members of the House Armed Services Committee tweeted Monday. “Arbitrary red lines by the Biden admin that hinder lethal aid shipments will only prolong this conflict.”

Mike Pompeo, who served as secretary of State under Trump and is viewed as a potential 2024 presidential candidate, focused on “Fox News Sunday” on Biden’s warnings of nuclear “Armageddon,” saying the focus should be on quiet diplomacy and public pressure on Putin.

“America has always pushed back against our adversaries by showing enormous resolve, executing quiet diplomacy in the same way that we did during our time in office,” Pompeo said. “Making very clear to Vladimir Putin that the costs of him using a nuclear weapon will bring the force of not only the United States and Europe, but the whole world against Vladimir Putin. We ought to be doing that. I hope that they’re doing this quietly.”

Former Vice President Mike Pence, another prospective 2024 contender, has previously denounced those in his party who sympathize with Putin. Pence also visited the Ukrainian border in March to visit with refugees.

But other conservatives more fiercely loyal to Trump have shown the party is not entirely united on the issue. 

Dozens of House Republicans voted against a $39 billion aid package in May. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) drew blowback for calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “thug.” And Michael Flynn, a former national security adviser to Trump who has spread conspiracies about the 2020 election, said on a right-wing web show last week that Putin and his top deputy are “bold leaders” with “everything at stake in terms of protecting their country.”

Eight months after Russia first invaded Ukraine, the war has ratcheted up considerably in recent weeks. Following a series of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives to push back the Russian military, Putin sought to illegally annex four Ukrainian regions and mobilize hundreds of thousands of Russian men into the military.

An explosion over the weekend damaged a critical bridge linking Russia to the occupied Crimean Peninsula that was a key supply chain route and a personal point of pride for Putin. The Russian leader personally drove a truck over the bridge when it opened in 2018.

In response, Russia launched missile attacks on multiple Ukrainian cities on Monday, killing dozens of civilians.

To some experts and those inside the White House, Putin’s brutal response underscored the need to avoid publicly talking about an offramp for Russia at a time when it is launching attacks on Ukrainian territories.

“These attacks only further reinforce our commitment to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes,” Biden said Monday in a statement. “Alongside our allies and partners, we will continue to impose costs on Russia for its aggression, hold Putin and Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes, and provide the support necessary for Ukrainian forces to defend their country and their freedom.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Senate races reach new heights of nastiness in final campaign stretch 

The battle for the Senate majority is turning nasty, especially in the three battle ground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, where candidates are facing a barrage of negative ads and social media attacks on their character and fitness for office.  

Democratic and Republican strategists as well as nonpartisan experts say the vitriol on the campaign trail has been remarkable, observing that while negative campaign tactics are nothing new, the 2022 battle for the Senate has taken it to a new level.  

“The nastiness of all races, including any top-ticket races, is pretty nasty right now,” said Kami Dempsey-Goudie, a Nevada-based political consultant who mainly works with Democrats but has worked with Republicans as well. “The negative ads are the loudest they’ve ever been.”

“You turn on the TV, it’s overwhelming with the negativity,” she added.

The negativity went off the charts at a weekend rally in Nevada for Senate GOP candidate Adam Laxalt, where Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) declared Democrats, including his Senate colleagues, as “pro-crime.” 

Tuberville then made a remark widely described as racist about reparations for slavery in which he said Democrats who back such payments want them because they think people who committed crimes are owed it.

“They want crime because they want to take over what you got. They want to control what you have. They want reparations because they think the people that do the crime are owed that. Bullshit!” Tuberville said at the even he attended with former President Trump in Minden, Nev. The line was cheered by the crowd in attendance.

Tuberville’s remarks overshadowed the general nastiness of a race that could determine the Senate majority.

Crime is a big focus in the Nevada fight. The Club for Growth super PAC unveiled a new $2 million ad buy on Spanish television and radio declaring incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) as “so weak on crime it’s dangerous.”  

Cortez Masto is punching back by framing Laxalt as an extremist who helped incite the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol by embracing Trump’s false claims of widespread election fraud, which she says her opponent is prepared to deploy again if he loses next month.  

She also has launched her own ad slamming Laxalt as someone who would not “fight for a woman’s right to make our own health care decisions.” 

She has attacked her opponent on a personal level, pointing to his arrest records as a teenager for assaulting a police officer, his academic record of “flunking out of college” and generally for being a child of privilege whose father was a lobbyist.

Jon Ralston, the CEO of The Nevada Independent, said “plenty of Senate races have been nasty” and “the crime attack” on Cortez Masto is not unexpected because “fear-mongering can be effective.” 

But he said the Club for Growth’s massive ad buy on Spanish-language television and radio is “the real news here” because Cortez Masto was the first Latina ever elected to the Senate and if “she can’t win the Hispanic vote by a landslide, it’s game over.”  

The Pennsylvania Senate race has also risen above others in its nastiness. 

Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is bashing his Republican opponent, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, as a quack with stronger ties to New Jersey than Pennsylvania. 

Republicans are responding by needling Fetterman over his health after he suffered a stroke in May. 

“They’re brutal. The stakes are so big, control of the Senate is at hand,” said Terry Madonna, the longtime director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll who now serves as a senior fellow for political affairs at Millersville University.  

Fetterman’s latest ad mocks Oz as the real-life incarnation of Dr. Nick, the quack doctor from “The Simpsons.”  

“They say the Simpsons always predict the future — and once again, they nailed it,” Fetterman tweeted.  

Republicans, meanwhile, are raising questions about Fetterman’s physical fitness for office and demanding he release his health records. 

Oz released his own medical records late last month to put a spotlight on Fetterman’s health problems.  

The Republican National Committee is quick to tweet out audio and video clips of Fetterman’s misstatements or mispronunciations to highlight his trouble speaking since suffering a stroke. 

And Republicans have steadily pounded away at Fetterman’s record on crime, raising his record as chairman of Pennsylvania’s Board of Pardons and his support for clemency for two brothers, Dennis and Lee Horton, who were sentenced to long prison terms for second-degree murder.  

The brothers got out of prison last year and joined Fetterman’s campaign as field organizers. Oz has called on Fetterman to fire them.  

Madonna observed that Oz, who became famous on television, and Fetterman, who is known for his iconoclastic wardrobe and facial hair, are both personality-driven candidates. So it makes sense for opponents to try to tear them down personally, he said. 

“This Senate race is to a great degree driven by personality. You have Oz, who didn’t live in this state, as Dr. Hollywood,” he said, summarizing the attacks on Oz who is now “viewed more unfavorably than favorably by the voters in the state.”  

“Then you have this other person who’s 6-foot-8, who wears hoodies and baggy shorts,” he added, describing Fetterman’s appearance.

Republicans in turn have tried to exploit Fetterman’s appearance by depicting him as an overgrown teenager who has had to rely on his parents financially until his late 40s.  

“There’s been enough in each of their backgrounds for their opponent to go after them,” Madonna said.

The Wisconsin Senate race has been another morass of negativity. 

As in Pennsylvania and Nevada, Republicans are shelling the Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, as soft on crime. 

They are banging on statements he made in support of reducing prison populations and redirecting or reducing police funding.  

Barnes has fought back by accusing incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) of sympathizing with the pro-Trump mob that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 — using a similar line of attack that Cortez Masto employed against Laxalt.  

“I won’t be lectured about crime from somebody who supported a violent insurrection that left 140 officers injured,” Barnes tweeted after facing off against Johnson in their first debate Friday. “It’s very hypocritical for Ron Johnson [to] want to bring up crime.”  

Standing only a few feet away from his rival on the debate stage, Barnes condemned the U.S. Senate as “broken” and called Johnson “one of the worst parts of a broken system” and “a person who has been in it for himself and his wealthy donors.” 

Johnson and allied Republican groups, meanwhile, are driving down Barnes’s favorable rating by carpet-bombing the state with negative ads defining him as soft on crime. 

Republicans are linking Barnes to former San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin (D), a prominent reform-minded prosecutor, by circulating a photo of Boudin at a Barnes fundraiser.

The Wesleyan Media Project found that 90 percent of the ads aimed at helping Johnson are focused on attacking Barnes, who called the barrage “an unprecedented amount of negative spin against me.”  

Brandon Scholz, a Republican strategist based in Wisconsin, said the race has gotten nastier as Election Day has gotten closer.  

“Messaging gets aggressive, media buys are up. You start to see a split between those races that are very competitive and have a lot of resources and those that just didn’t make it,” he said. “They can be very aggressive in messaging, they can be very hard-hitting. 

“It might make some people feel uncomfortable,” he added, noting that Johnson is leading Barnes by only 1 percentage point in the latest CBS News-YouGov poll.  

“Whether you’re attacking your opponent or you’re pushing your stuff, it’s all about driving the base,” he added.

Source: TEST FEED1

Nevada shows signs of growing red wave

Signs are emerging that Nevada could see a red wave in November, putting Democratic control of a critical state at risk and potentially costing the party its Senate majority.

Recent polling has shown Republican Senate hopeful Adam Laxalt leading Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), albeit within the margin of error, and demonstrated that Republicans’ preferred midterm issue — the economy and inflation — is dominating the minds of residents from the tourism-focused state. 

While Democrats and their allies argue that races have always been close in the swing state, they acknowledge that the stakes are a little higher there this year.

“We’re fighting against history here,” said Ted Pappageorge, secretary-treasurer for the Culinary Workers Union, a powerful Nevada union, in reference to the headwinds the president’s party faces in midterm cycles. The organization has led major canvassing efforts to support Democratic candidates like Cortez Masto and Gov. Steve Sisolak.

“We worked our butts off, a lot of blood, sweat and tears in the last, really, 20 years of building this organization, getting a little bigger each cycle. And we’re not going to go backwards. We’re going to talk to as many voters and do what it takes to win,” he said.

Sisolak is running for reelection against Republican candidate Joe Lombardo, the sheriff of Clark County. While Democrats are facing headwinds at the national level, Cortez Masto and Sisolak, both first-term incumbents, are also facing unique challenges at home as residents are still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic’s toll on Nevada’s tourism-heavy economy. Meanwhile, President Biden’s approval ratings are underwater in the state. 

And then there’s last year’s death of former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who was revered for his ability to turn out voters in the state and notch key Democratic victories. His death has left political observers wondering how well the “Reid machine” will work without its leader.

Jon Ralston, CEO of The Nevada Independent and a widely respected political commentator in the state, said Democrats “have to turn out, and the so-called Reid machine, which was started by Harry Reid, needs to show it still can work even without Harry Reid around.”

“They’ve been masterful for several cycles in registering and turning out voters. Now, the registration numbers are not what they used to be. The Democratic lead is much smaller than it usually is this time of year.”

Reps. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) and Dina Titus (D-Nev.) are also facing competitive House races this cycle. Titus is running against Republican candidate Mark Robertson, a retired Army colonel, in the state’s 1st Congressional District. Lee is running against GOP contender April Becker, an attorney, in the 3rd Congressional District. Both races are viewed as toss-ups by the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report. 

The midterm environment in Nevada has left Republicans like Zachary Moyle, former executive director for the Nevada GOP, feeling good about their prospects in the state. 

“We’re looking at a good year for Republicans, whether you call it a wave, whether you call it something else. The bottom line is you’re looking at a very good year for Republicans,” he said. “The question has always been how good of a year, and you don’t really need to ask Republicans to find that out. You need just look at the way Democrats are campaigning, and it will tell you what they think.”

Another GOP strategist predicted that voters would seek a different direction and vote for Republicans given how the economy has hit the Silver State. The strategist also said that Laxalt and Lombardo had a “natural connection” on the issue of crime, another issue the person believed would be on voters’ minds. 

The polling so far suggests Republicans have reason to be optimistic. A CNN poll released last week, for example, showed Laxalt leading Cortez Masto 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, while Sisolak trailed Lombardo 46 percent to 48 percent. Both fall within the margin of error, effectively showing both races tied. Among registered voters polled, it either found the Democrat leading slightly or tying with the Republican.

A Nevada Independent-OH Predictive Insights poll released earlier this month also showed Jim Marchant, the Republican candidate for secretary of state who has repeatedly pushed baseless allegations that the 2020 election was rigged, is polling ahead of Democrat Cisco Aguilar at 39 percent and 31 percent, respectively.

Elizabeth Ray, a spokesperson for Lombardo’s campaign, argued in a statement that Republican candidates was gaining momentum “because Nevadans believe in Joe’s vision of better schools, safer streets, and a stronger economy for our state” while calling Sisolak’s track record “frustration and failure.”

But Democrats believe voters will recognize their track records differently. 

“Senator Cortez Masto has worked to lower prescription drug costs, hold Big Oil accountable for rising gas prices, and protect a woman’s right to choose. Adam Laxalt opposes the legislation bringing down costs for Nevada families, defends Big Oil, and thinks Roe v. Wade is ‘a joke’ — that’s why Nevadans will reject him like they did in 2018,” said Sigalle Reshef, a spokesperson for Cortez Masto’s campaign.

Molly Forgey, a spokesperson for Sisolak’s campaign, argued the race remains competitive.

“While the governor works to lower costs by investing in critical programs that make housing, prescription drugs, health care, and child care more affordable, Joe Lombardo is more concerned with ripping away Nevadans’ access to reproductive health care,” Forgey said in a statement.

Nail-bitter elections are nothing new in Nevada. Cortez Masto won her seat in 2016 against Republican candidate Joe Heck by just over 2 percentage points, while Sisolak won in 2018 against Laxalt, the GOP gubernatorial nominee that year, by 4 points. 

In 2020, Biden won the state over former President Trump by roughly 2 percentage points.

“Nevada’s three states in one. It’s Clark County, which has 70 percent of the vote. It’s Washoe County, which has anywhere from 15 to 18 percent of the vote. And then it’s the rural counties — the 15 other counties that are the rest of the vote,” said Ralston of The Nevada Independent.

“The way for Republicans to win statewide is to cut the Clark County margin to single digits, to win overwhelmingly in rural Nevada and have a wash in Washoe County,” he continued, before adding: “[If] the Democrats are not crushing the Republicans in Clark County, they’re going to lose.” 

Some political observers warn that more hinges on the Nevada races than mere control of the Senate or the governor’s mansion.

“Those top races, which usually carry the coattails of lower races, is absolutely vital, because if Joe Lombardo were to get a lot of momentum or Adam Laxalt were to get a lot of momentum, the chances of having a Republican slate elected can be high. And for Nevada, that’s very damaging in the long-term,” Kami Dempsey-Goudie, a political consultant in the state who’s worked for candidates in both parties, said in reference to other GOP contenders like Marchant.

Marchant’s campaign dismissed criticism directed at him in a statement to The Hill, saying, “Monday morning quarterbacks are welcome to their commentary.”

But even some Republicans are uncertain about seeing a GOP sweep in the state, alluding to the quality of this particular slate of candidates.

“I would prefer a pink tidal pool with our nominees currently,” said Amy Tarkanian, former Nevada GOP chair. “Because I think, in the end, I’m more concerned about Nevada overall over party, and I don’t think that some of our candidates would do it justice, and it would be an embarrassment.” 

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Five takeaways from the Ryan-Vance debate in Ohio

Ohio Senate candidates Rep. Tim Ryan (D) and J.D. Vance (R) squared off in a televised debate on Monday night that saw the two hit each other over everything from ties to Washington, China and the leaders of their respective parties. 

While Ryan branded Vance an “ass-kisser” to former President Trump, Vance worked to tie Ryan to President Biden. 

The debate comes in the final stretch of a race that has proven to be more competitive than many initially imagined. The Cook Political Report rates it as “lean Republican,” though there are signs Ryan has been closing the gap with Vance ahead of Election Day in November.

Here are five takeaways from the Ohio Senate debate.

Biden, Trump loom large

Throughout Tuesday night, Vance and Ryan worked to brand each other as beholden to the leaders of their respective parties, both of whom suffer from low approval ratings. 

When Vance received the debate’s first question on the economy, he wasted no time tying Ryan to inflation under Biden. 

“Tim Ryan, of course, has supported all of these policies a hundred percent of the time,” Vance said. “I believe we’ve gone in a fundamentally bad direction over the last couple of years. I think people deserve to go to the grocery store without it completely breaking the bank. Tim Ryan has voted with these policies a hundred percent of the time. Every time he gets an opportunity to stand with Ohioans, he chooses to bend the knee to his own party.” 

Ryan, meanwhile, brought up a Youngstown rally Trump held for Vance last month in an effort to underscore the Republican’s fealty to the former president. During the rally, Trump said that Vance, his former critic, was “in love” with him and was “kissing my ass” for support.

“Here’s the thing that’s most troubling about this: lack of courage,” Ryan said on Tuesday, referring to Trump’s comments. “After Trump took J.D. Vance’s dignity from him on the stage in Youngstown, J.D. Vance got back up on stage and started shaking his hand, taking pictures.” 

“I’m for Ohio. I don’t kiss anyone’s ass like him. Ohio needs an ass-kicker, not an ass-kisser,” the congressman said. 

Both candidates seize on ‘extremist’ label 

Vance and Ryan also repeatedly labeled each other as an extremist, albeit for very different reasons.

The Democratic congressman painted the first-time GOP Senate nominee as a fringe candidate, accusing him of supporting the Capitol rioters and lashing into him over his stance on issues like abortion access.

“J.D. Vance is extreme on these issues. No exceptions for rape or incest,” Ryan said. “Now he says he’s not for same-sex marriage. He’s going right down the line with the absolute most extremist. The guys who want to ban books. Those are the guys you bring into the state to campaign. Those are extreme positions that Ohioans are rejecting.” 

But Vance hit back against Ryan, calling him extreme when it came to issues like abortion and immigration. At one point, the Republican cited Ryan’s comments about a 10-year-old Ohio girl who was raped and sought an abortion in Indiana due to Ohio’s abortion restrictions. Vance tied the incident to the immigration issue. 

“You voted so many times against border wall funding, so many times for amnesty, Tim,” he said. “If you had done your job, she would have never been raped in the first place. Do your job on border security, don’t lecture me about opinions I don’t actually have.”

Ryan distances himself from Dem leaders 

Ryan notably used the forum to distance himself from the standard-bearers of his own party, calling for “generational change” in party leadership. 

The Democrat, who has served in Congress for two decades, reiterated that he does not believe Biden should run for reelection in 2024. 

“No, I’ve been very clear. I’d like to see a generational change,” Ryan said.

“Mitch McConnell, Donald Trump, the president, everybody,” he continued. “We need a new generation of leadership.” 

The congressman was also critical of Vice President Harris, saying she was “absolutely wrong” in saying that the southern border was secure. 

“We need leaders who have courage to take on their own party, and I have proven that,” Ryan, who challenged Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for her position atop the House Democratic Caucus, said at the debate. 

Vance hit back at the comment, citing Ryan’s voting record in Congress. 

“It’s so funny. We’re getting close to Halloween and Tim Ryan has put on a costume where he pretends to be a reasonable moderate,” Vance said. “The last two Congresses, Tim, you voted with Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden 100 percent. You consistently toe the party line.” 

Vance embraces outsider image 

Vance repeatedly sought to draw a contrast with Ryan, portraying himself as an outsider who would inject new blood into the Senate.

“At the end of the day, the question here is whether we need new leadership in this state,” Vance said. “Double down on the last two years of failed leadership or take this country in a different direction.” 

Vance specifically took aim at Ryan over his 20 years on Capitol Hill. 

“Twenty years ago, I enlisted in the United States Marine Corps. That very same year, Tim Ryan went to Washington, D.C., where he has been failing at his basic job for 20 years,” Vance said. 

Vance also touted his own business background to attack Ryan. 

“Those of us who create jobs know what it’s like when you have bad policies and we know what it’s like when you have good policies,” he said. 

China emerges as flashpoint 

China proved to be one of the night’s biggest topics of discussion, given how Ohio’s manufacturing sector has been hit by jobs going overseas to the economic superpower. 

“J.D. Vance has invested into companies in China,” Ryan said. “The problem we’re having now with inflation is our supply chains all went to China, and guys like him have made a lot of money off of that, and that is exactly why the supply chains are locked up.” 

Vance also criticized Ryan over the issue, accusing him of being responsible for manufacturing jobs in his district going to China. 

“I’d like Tim Ryan to lecture me on my business background a little bit less and explain to me why the guy who’s the biggest fighter of China had his own congressional district lose tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs to China just in your time in public service.” 

Source: TEST FEED1

US faces increased pressure to help Ukraine with air defense

The pressure for the United States to send Ukraine more advanced air defense systems reached a new high Monday after Russia escalated its war on the country with a barrage of deadly missile strikes.  

The Kremlin attacks, which targeted civilian areas that for months had enjoyed a relative calm, has produced anew the argument that the West send Ukraine more high-tech air defense weapons, including those similar to Israel’s Iron Dome missile interception system. 

Washington has long resisted providing Kyiv with such lethal aid, fearing it could escalate the conflict and arguing it would be too complicated to train Ukrainian troops on the advanced systems. But the latest Russia atrocities could shift the wind in Ukraine’s favor, experts say. 

“Ukrainians have shown over and over again, if you give them the right tools to defend themselves, they will. Hopefully this moves the needle,” said John Spencer, a retired Army major and the chairman of Urban Warfare Studies at the research organization Madison Policy Forum. 

“If there are people on the other side of that fence, hopefully this is more supporting information that they needed to show that if we have something — whether it’s a rocket or an air defense system — we can give it.” 

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered a rain of cruise and ballistic missiles on Kyiv and nine other Ukrainian cities, killing at least 11 individuals and injuring at least another 64. 

Putin said the attacks were a “harsh” response to a Saturday explosion on the Kerch Strait Bridge, a crucial Russian rail and road line to the occupied Crimean Peninsula. The bridge is viewed as a key supply route for Moscow’s military offensive on the south of Ukraine.  

The strikes also follow embarrassing Kremlin losses in its so-called “special military operation,” with Russian troops pushed from thousands of miles of territory in a lightning counteroffensive by Ukrainian armed forces starting in September.  

Russia’s escalation has prompted international condemnation, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took to Telegram to plead for more air and missile defenses from the West — and soon.  

About 84 missiles were launched on Ukraine but its air defenses were able to down 43 of them, Kyiv’s forces said, pointing to successes with the Western-supplied military aid.  

Zelensky later on Monday revealed he had a “productive” conversation with President Biden on the matter, stressing that air defense “is currently the number 1 priority in our defense cooperation,” he wrote on Twitter. 

The White House released its own statement confirming the call and said that Biden “pledged to continue providing Ukraine with the support needed to defend itself, including advanced air defense systems.” 

The release did not give further details on what specific systems were discussed.  

Zelensky’s call for the protection of Ukrainian airspace is nothing new, as he has made the plea to the West since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24. 

The Ukrainian leader initially pushed for the United States and NATO to help establish a no-fly zone, but the ask was rejected by the administration and lawmakers in both parties. In order for such a plan to work, officials argued, the U.S. and other European countries would have to enforce it and shoot down Russian planes that came into Ukrainian airspace, potentially setting off a third World War. 

In recent months, Ukraine has refocused on its lethal aid wish lists in asking for Western help, specifically requesting more advanced air defense systems including the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS). The U.S.-Norwegian made system was recently promised to Kyiv by Washington but is not expected to get there for at least another month. 

What makes the medium-range air defense system so indispensable is its ability to identify and take out aircraft, cruise missiles and drones, protecting major assets or civilian populations. The Biden administration in late August approved the shipment of six NASAMSs to Ukraine but none have been sent yet.  

To speed along the system’s delivery, Ukraine’s top parliamentarian Ruslan Stefanchuk on Monday sent letters to U.S. congressional leaders calling on Washington to prioritize the shipments, Foreign Policy reported.  

The letter also reportedly asked for defensive weapons, including counter-rocket, mortar, and artillery systems, armaments that appear to now take precedent over the fighter jets and long-range rocket systems that Kyiv has asked for over the past several months.  

Another weapon at the top of Kyiv’s wish list is the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), a surface-to-surface missile that can travel four times farther than anything Ukraine has now in its fight against Russia.  

The former Soviet nation has pressed the U.S. for ATACMS for months to protect against Russian’s invasion, but Washington has so far resisted, afraid the system would be used on targets within Russia’s borders. Ukraine, meanwhile, has stressed the missile would instead be used on Russian positions within Ukrainian borders.  

Retired Army Gen. George Joulwan, a former NATO supreme allied commander, even suggested that Ukraine needs air defenses similar to Israel’s Iron Dome missile interception system. 

“Well, it needs to be able to have some sort of air cap, or Iron Dome or some way to be able to take that initiative away from the Russians,” Joulwan told CNN. “And we’ve been kicking this around now for some time, but they need a way to protect themselves from both air and artillery strikes, which is the strength of the Russian military.” 

Ukraine has also turned to European leaders for help, with Zelensky noting that he had also spoken with the heads of the United Kingdom and Canada “regarding the protection of our skies,” and to stress that “Ukraine needs an air shield to protect civilians and critical infrastructure.” 

Beth Sanner, the former U.S. deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration, accused bigger allies, including Germany and France, for not “standing up” and providing more to Ukraine.  

“Germany promised four air defense systems in June. Not one has shown up and if they don’t want more refugees coming from Ukraine … it’s in their interest to do all they can to shore up Ukraine,” Sanner said on CNN Monday. 

German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht later on Monday said the delivery of the vehicle-mounted Iris-T SLM systems was slated for the end of the year but will be sped up in light of the Kremlin rocket strikes.  

“The renewed missile fire on Kyiv and the many other cities show how important it is to supply Ukraine with air defense systems quickly,” Lambrecht said in a statement. 

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola also urged the EU to provide Ukraine with more military equipment in the wake of the Russian attacks. 

“I think all countries could and should do more,” Metsola told CNN. “What we’ve seen today shows that Russia will continue to escalate further … How are we going to respond? If our response is not proportionate to the escalation, then we’re just going to keep seeing him killing more people.” 

Lawmakers also joined in on the pressure campaign, with House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Michael McCaul (R-Texas), urging the administration and U.S. allies and partners “to immediately ramp up security assistance to Ukraine in response, including longer-range artillery and additional air defense systems.” 

“Putin must be made to understand such brutal escalation and war crimes will not break the United States’ and the free world’s support of Ukraine,” McCaul said in a statement. 

This story was updated at 7:59 p.m.

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Partisan split highlighted in celebrations of Indigenous People's Day, Columbus Day

Lawmakers, governors and members of the Biden administration celebrated two very different holidays on Monday, with Democrats tending to favor Indigenous People’s Day while Republicans mostly stuck with the older Columbus Day.

Political figures took to Twitter on Monday, pushing different reasons for the day’s significance.

Many Democrats, including Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers and Sens. Dick Durbin (Ill.), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) expressed support for the newer holiday.

“On #IndigenousPeoplesDay, we celebrate the contributions, the extraordinary resilience, and the rich cultures of tribal nations and Native communities. Today and every day, the federal government must recommit itself to honoring its promises to Native peoples,” Warren said.

Vice President Harris and Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, the first Native American Cabinet secretary, honored the occasion as a day of respect for indigenous communities.

“Today and every day, let us continue to celebrate and uplift the rich contributions of Indigenous peoples—their leadership has made our country stronger,” Harris wrote in a tweet.

In a video posted to Twitter, Haaland cited the Biden administration’s work as a promise of a better future for indigenous communities.

Democrats also sought to bring awareness to the dark side of colonialism and its disregard for the trauma suffered by native peoples.

“On #IndigenousPeoplesDay, let us pause to remember the exploitation and genocide of Native and Indigenous communities borne out of our nation’s ‘discovery,'” tweeted Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.).

“We must learn from this dark chapter of our history—and never stop working to right this wrong that is still felt today,” she added.

Members of the GOP, including Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Reps. Jim Jordan (Ohio) and Lauren Boebert (Colo.), mostly shared messages of holiday greetings hailing explorer Christopher Columbus.

“Thank you Christopher Columbus for dreaming big and helping discover the Americas,” tweeted Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.).

Rep. Lee Zeldin, the Republican nominee for New York governor, praised the holiday as a “source of great pride for the Italian American community to honor one of their own.”

Some, including House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), shared more pointed messages condemning the “woke” left on Twitter.

“I am proud to stand up against the Far Left woke mob attempting to cancel history! #SaveColumbusDay,” she wrote.

Source: TEST FEED1