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Cheney fuels talk of independent bid

Rep. Liz Cheney’s (R-Wyo.) comment that she will not be a Republican if former President Trump wins the party’s 2024 presidential nomination is sparking chatter that she might mount an independent White House run.  

While Cheney lost her House primary to the former president’s endorsed candidate last month, her break with the MAGA wing of the GOP has made her the leader of the anti-Trump movement among Republicans and beyond. 

It’s unclear whether Cheney will run in 2024 at all, whether she would run as an independent if she mounted a bid or what impact an independent bid could have on what’s shaping up to be another Trump-focused presidential election. But observers say she’ll continue to be an important figure on the national stage no matter what.  

“She’s going to be one of the most prominent voices in politics over the coming years regardless of being in Congress or not,” said veteran Republican strategist Doug Heye.   

Chatter about a possible Cheney presidential bid began almost the minute she lost her House primary and gave a speech that was at once a concession and a vow to keep fighting. Her comments over the weekend are the latest to draw attention from political observers, all of whom are eager to see how Cheney responds to a likely Trump presidential run in 2024. 

Though the former president hasn’t announced his intentions yet, reports suggest he could launch another White House bid shortly after the November midterms.  

“I’m gonna make sure Donald Trump — I’m gonna do everything I can to make sure he’s not the nominee,” she said during an interview at the Texas Tribune Festival on Saturday.   

“And if he is the nominee, I won’t be a Republican,” she added.   

Additionally, the outgoing congresswoman said that she would be willing to campaign for Democrats ahead of November’s midterm elections.   

Cheney — who has said she’s “thinking about” a presidential run — remains one of the big wild cards ahead of 2024. Though third-party presidential campaigns have historically fallen flat, Cheney’s high profile means an independent bid has the potential to scramble the political calculus as GOP primary voters increasingly nominate hard-right candidates for office, frustrating more moderate Republicans.  

But even as chatter grows about the next presidential race, some observers caution against taking the emphasis off Cheney’s message.  

“There are going to be a lot of stories between now and whenever kind of horseracing ‘what are her chances in Nevada, or New Hampshire,’ or what have you, and I think they all will miss the point,” Heye said.   

“She’s not talking about winning this precinct or that precinct, she’s talking about a much bigger issue,” he continued, referring to concerns over the future of American democracy.  

Cheney herself shared this sentiment in Texas over the weekend when asked about 2024.   

“I think it’s really important not to just immediately jump to the horse race. And I think about what we need as a country. And, you know, we have to step back from the abyss,” Cheney said. “And we have to recognize that, that there’s this shift going on in our politics, that the tectonic plates are shifting. And that means that we all have a responsibility to say to ourselves, what are we going to do to make sure that our kids, you know, know what it means to have peaceful transfers of power? And what are we going to do to make sure that we don’t contribute to the unraveling of the Republic? And I think that’s a much bigger question.”   

Still, as the most prominent face of the anti-Trump movement, Cheney is seen as a natural alternative for Republicans unhappy with the direction of the party under Trump, particularly when it comes to the boosting of candidates who deny the results of the 2020 presidential election.  

The question is how many of those Republicans there are — and whether there are any Democrats willing to go beyond lauding her work against Trump and cast ballots for her. 

During her primary night speech last month, Cheney appealed to “Republicans, Democrats, and independents” to stand together with her “against those who would destroy our Republic.” Additionally, Cheney vowed to “do whatever it takes to ensure Donald Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office.”  

And Cheney has signaled she is keeping true to that promise. Within hours of losing her primary, Cheney launched The Great Task, a political action committee committed to blocking Trump from grasping the presidency again. Additionally, Cheney will continue to make headlines before she leaves office, particularly as the House select committee she co-chairs wraps up its work investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.  

Meanwhile, Cheney’s Republican critics argue that her actions amount to rabble-rousing and ultimately will not impact the trajectory of the GOP or the nation’s politics as a whole.   

“Liz Cheney represents a group of Republicans who haven’t come to grips with why people have embraced some of this populism both on the left and the right,” said Republican strategist Keith Naughton. “They’re just pouting because they’re out of power and they don’t like Donald Trump.”   

Over the weekend, Cheney specifically targeted Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano over their denial of the 2020 presidential election results.   

Lake, who is locked in a tight race against Democrat Katie Hobbs, responded on Sunday by describing Cheney’s comments as a “gift.”   

“That might be the biggest, best gift I have ever received,” Lake told Maria Bartiromo on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures.” “Liz Cheney probably should change her voter registration. Turns out she really is a Democrat after all.”   

Underscoring the challenges Cheney faces in the GOP, a recent Morning Consult survey found that 66 percent of Republicans had an unfavorable view of her. Another 21 percent said they did not have an opinion or had never heard of her, while 14 percent said they had a favorable view. The same poll found that 42 percent of independent voters said they had an unfavorable view of Cheney, while 48 percent of Democrats said they had a favorable view of her.   

When it comes to how the Republican 2024 primary could shape up, Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) continue to lead the hypothetical pack.   

“I think if she ran for president, I don’t think she’d be going anywhere. She’d be the Evan McMullin of 2024,” Naughton said, referring to the former Republican who ran as an independent in the 2016 presidential election and is currently running as an independent against Sen. Mike Lee (R) in Utah.  

Yet even as large swaths of the GOP seem to have moved against her, some Republicans are more circumspect about whether Cheney could maintain a place within the party.  

“I don’t think we know the answer to it yet and to some extent that depends on what happens in November and beyond,” Heye said.   

Source: TEST FEED1

US faces bleak options as Putin turns bellicose on nukes

U.S. officials are walking a careful line in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest suggestion that he may be willing to resort to nuclear weapons.

Following Putin’s thinly-veiled reference to the nuclear option in remarks last week, Biden administration officials have said they are taking the comments seriously, while trying to avoid escalating the situation with more bellicose rhetoric.

The Kremlin’s announcement, which also detailed aggressive new steps to try and turn the tide of the war in Ukraine back in Moscow’s favor, has U.S. officials caught between a bleak set of options with Putin’s nuclear saber rattling.

“We have communicated to the Russians what the consequences would be, but we’ve been careful in how we talk about this publicly because, from our perspective, we want to lay down the principle that there would be catastrophic consequences, but not engage in a game of rhetorical tit for tat,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday on ABC.

Putin last week said Moscow was prepared to use nuclear weapons to defend any of its territory, accusing the U.S. and its allies of “nuclear blackmail” and moving to “destroy” his country.

“I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and some components are more modern than those of the NATO countries,” Putin claimed in a nationally televised address. 

The White House has said it has not seen a reason to adjust its nuclear posture in response to Putin’s comments. U.S. officials have instead tried to balance forceful calls for Russia not to escalate the conflict with a desire to keep conversations with Moscow private.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told “60 Minutes” in an interview broadcast Sunday that Putin was using “irresponsible rhetoric.” He also reiterated that the White House has publicly and privately cautioned Moscow against resorting to nuclear weapons.

Blinken would not get into the specifics of the U.S. message or strategy, but he said the administration does have a plan should Russia deploy nuclear armaments.

“President Biden has been determined that as we’re doing everything we can to help the Ukrainians defend themselves, as we’re doing everything we can to rally other countries to put pressure on Russia, we’re also determined that this war not expand, not get broader,” Blinken said when asked if it was a plan to “prevent World War III.”

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday refused to get into what the potential response would be if Russia used nuclear weapons, following the lead of President Biden and the secretary of State in recent weeks when asked about the consequences.

Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday confirmed that Moscow was in contact with Washington on nuclear issues, but said it was “very sporadic” dialogue. 

“There are channels of interaction between the Russian Federation and the United States, they are very sporadic, but they allow you to bring emergency messages about each other’s position,” Peskov told state-run Russian media, referring to Sullivan’s statement.

Much speculation has also been given as to the exact kind of weapon Putin is brandishing. There are fears the Russian leader could resort to using tactical nuclear weapons, also known as nonstrategic nuclear weapons, which are meant to win a battle. Strategic, or long-range, nuclear weapons, meanwhile, are designed to end a war, much like when the Allies dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II.

A major issue, however, is that nuclear technology has advanced greatly, with Russia and U.S. both owning tactical weapons in their arsenals that would do far more damage that the bombs used nearly 80 years ago. 

Then-Defense Secretary James Mattis in 2018 said he didn’t believe “there’s any such thing as a ‘tactical nuclear weapon.’ Any nuclear weapon used at any time is a strategic game changer.”

What’s more, the icy relationship between the two nations only underscores the risks in play as administration officials seek to bluntly warn Russia of consequences without escalating an already fraught situation.

“I think Putin has been very clever in keeping the west on edge with his nuclear threats. The west reacts very excitedly to these threats, and I think reads more into them than they should. But I think it’s worked to his advantage,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Cancian said U.S. officials have thus far taken the proper course in using strategic ambiguity to respond, putting Russia on notice without creating wider panic by pledging a military response to any use of nuclear weapons.

Former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, meanwhile, agreed that Washington’s messaging to Moscow over the last week has been solid, with no sign that Putin’s warnings have deterred the West from continuing to provide weapons to Ukraine.

“It seems that we have said to the Russians ‘don’t do it. If you do, our response is going to be devastating. You’re not going to like it.’ That’s good,” Herbst told The Hill Monday.

“Putin, the lifelong KGB officer, knows how to play psychological games. . . .So he has skillfully built this image to scare us out of our pants and not defend our interests,” Herbst said, adding, “we cannot afford to fall for that.”

Herbst suggested that the U.S. could try to rope in other nations as a lobbying effort to privately try to sway Putin from nuclear force, including China and India. 

“The Chinese are clearly not our friends, but they have expressed unhappiness with Putin’s, at this point, failed war in Ukraine,” he said. “I imagine the Chinese would not be thrilled if Putin were to use weapons of mass destruction. So we should have a conversation with the Chinese and for that matter, the Indians to have them – obviously only in private – urge the Russians not to do this.”

The latest round of talk of Russia’s use of nuclear weapons comes roughly seven months after Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine. The Russian president hinted shortly after the start of the war that nuclear weapons could come into play. The U.S. government in March said it was not adjusting its nuclear posture in response to those comments.

But Putin’s mention of nuclear weapons last week comes as he has dug in his heels in response to a Ukrainian counteroffensive that pushed back Russian forces and took back control of key cities.

Putin said nuclear weapons could be in play to respond to any invasion or attack on the Russian homeland, leaving some to wonder if he was referring to autonomous areas of Ukraine that Moscow has laid claim to via manipulated referenda.

In the same taped address where he referenced nuclear war, Putin called for the conscription of hundreds of thousands of military-age men. That move has led to viral footage of Russian men leaving their families, pushback from lawmakers and protests from civilians.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with “Face The Nation,” pointed to Russia’s occupation of nuclear facilities in Ukraine and Putin’s past rhetoric as cause to take him seriously when he dangles the threat of nuclear warfare.

“I don’t think he’s bluffing,” Zelensky said. “I think the world is deterring it and containing this threat. We need to keep putting pressure on him and not allow him to continue.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Manchin surprised by McConnell opposition: 'You can be a hero one day and a villain the next'

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) admitted Monday that he was caught by surprise when Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and other Senate Republicans decided to oppose his permitting reform bill, which means it will likely fail on the Senate floor this week.  

Manchin said he expected Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), an outspoken progressive, and other “far-left” liberals to oppose his legislation to limited federal agency authority to review new energy projects but was stunned when Republicans also came out in opposition last week. 

“I never did think I’d have Bernie and some of the extreme far left,” he told Fox News host Neil Cavuto in an interview Monday. “What I didn’t expect is that Mitch McConnell and my Republican friends would be sacking up with Bernie or trying to get the same outcome by not passing permitting reform.”  

Manchin warned that this week’s vote in the Senate could be the last chance of passing permitting reform for the foreseeable future and expressed dismay that his bill is now likely to go down in defeat because Republicans are angry he cut a deal with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to reform the corporate tax code and pass hundreds of billions of dollars to fight climate change.  

“I don’t see it ever coming back again, people just aren’t going to be there at all,” he said.  

Manchin pointed out that he’s voted with Republicans repeatedly on permitting reform bills during his 12 years in the Senate and said that now that Democrats are ready to vote for a permitting a reform bill, Republican colleagues should join in.  

“Every time there was permitting reform, I’d vote for it. I was the only Democrat. Now all of the sudden we got a majority of the Democrats, an overwhelming majority of Democrats, that will support a very balanced procedure forward. Is it a perfect bill? No. Does it move the needle? Absolutely,” he said.  

He said his bill would allow energy companies to get product to the market in one to three years instead of five to 10 years.  

Manchin said he can’t understand why Republicans would block his permitting reform bill just because of his vote for the Inflation Reduction Act, which implemented a 15 percent corporate minimum tax, allocated $369 billion to fight climate change and empowered Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices.

“That’s the only thing we did in taxes,” he said on Fox. “We’re just trying to get corporations that paid nothing to pay at least 15 percent.”  

He marveled over his sudden drop in popularity among Senate GOP colleagues.   

“You can be a hero one day and a villain the next,” he said, alluding to the praise he received from Republicans after sinking Biden’s Build Back Better framework in December.  

He blamed the GOP opposition on politics more than policy differences.  

“[If] politics get in the way, I’m sorry,” he said, noting that Republicans hailed him as a hero when he walked away from Biden’s $3.5 trillion Build Back Better agenda a year ago.  

Source: TEST FEED1

Biden's student loan forgiveness plan to cost about $400 billion: CBO

The Biden administration’s sweeping effort to provide widespread student loan forgiveness for some Americans will cost about $400 billion, according to new reporting by Congress’s nonpartisan budget scorekeeper.

The estimate applies to the plan Biden announced last month to forgive $10,000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers earning under $125,000 and $20,000 for borrowers who received Pell Grants.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said 43 million borrowers shared $1.6 trillion in federal student loan debt as of June 30. Under Biden’s plan, about $430 billion of that debt will be wiped out, the reporting shows. 

The CBO also estimated the costs for the Biden administration’s recent renewal of the moratorium on federal student loan payments and interest accrual, which had been set to lapse at the end of August.

The extension, which punts the deadline to the end of the year, was projected to cost $20 billion in the new report. 

According to the CBO’s analysis, of the nearly 37 million borrowers who have direct loans from the federal government, 95 percent meet the income eligibility requirements under the new forgiveness plan. Almost half of those borrowers will see all their outstanding debt canceled, the CBO said. 

The CBO also projected that nearly 65 percent of borrowers who meet the income eligibility requirements have also received at least one Pell Grant and that “90 percent of income-eligible borrowers will apply for debt cancellation.

The reporting comes as fiscal hawks and Republicans have criticized the recent move by the Biden administration as too expensive.

In a statement reacting to the report on Monday afternoon, Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, called the price tag “outrageous,” saying that “this might be the most costly executive action in history.”

At the same time, advocates and progressives have pushed the Biden administration to go further, touting widespread debt forgiveness as a way to help lower-income households struggling with repayment and borrowers of color who face an outsize burden in the student loan system.

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who pushed Biden to go as far as forgiving $50,000 in federal student debt per borrower, said in a statement on Monday that the recent estimate “makes clear that millions of middle class Americans have more breathing room thanks to President Biden’s historic decision to cancel student debt.”

While they also said they don’t agree with some of the CBO’s assumptions underlying the analysis, they added, “It is clear the pandemic payment pause and student debt cancellation are policies that demonstrate how government can and should invest in working people, not the wealthy and billionaire corporations.”

“In contrast to President Trump and Republicans who gave giant corporations $2 trillion in tax breaks, President Biden delivered transformative middle class relief by cancelling student debt for working people who need it most — nearly 90% of relief dollars will go to those earning less than $75,000 a year,” they added.

Source: TEST FEED1

Senate GOP leadership whipping against Manchin permitting bill

Senate Republican leaders are urging their GOP colleagues to stay unified against a permitting reform bill sponsored by West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D) and to support instead a competing bill sponsored by his home-state colleague, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). 

Senate GOP sources say Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) is doing most of the whipping but that Senate GOP leadership is united in trying to push colleagues to Capito’s bill.  

“There’s a concerted effort in the Republican conference to stay united in our support for Capito’s legislation and to stay united in our opposition to Manchin,” a Republican aide said.  

The one wrinkle in their plan is that Capito last week announced her support for Manchin’s bill, even though prominent GOP experts on permitting reform such as Sen. John Barrasso (Wyo.), the ranking Republican on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, say Manchin’s bill is too weak.  

But Senate Republicans opposed to Manchin’s bill say that Capito’s support is primarily motivated by her home state’s interest in approving the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a 304-mile natural gas pipeline that runs through West Virginia and Virginia. Manchin’s bill would greenlight its approval.  

Manchin’s legislation is part of deal he reached with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) in exchange for his vote on Democrats’ climate, tax and health care bill. The proposal would speed up the process for approving both green and fossil fuel energy projects.

Manchin will need at least 10 Republican votes and perhaps more than that because two members of the Senate Democratic conference, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.), have signaled they will vote against his bill.  

The Senate is scheduled to vote at 5:30 pm Tuesday on a House “shell” bill that will serve as the legislative vehicle for passing a short-term government funding bill combined with Manchin’s permitting reform bill.  

Senate Republican sources say the Tuesday vote on the House shell bill will be the test vote for Manchin’s permitting reform. They expect it to fall short of the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster.  

If it fails, Schumer will have to schedule a vote on a different continuing resolution to keep the government operating past Sept. 30, the funding deadline.  

Source: TEST FEED1

Riggleman: After I criticized Trump, my mom texted me, ‘I’m sorry you were ever elected’

Denver Riggleman, a former GOP lawmaker from Virginia and House Jan. 6 committee aide, wrote in his forthcoming book that his mom texted him saying she was “sorry you were ever elected” after the then-Republican lawmaker went on CNN to condemn QAnon.

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Riggleman marketed his book as a behind-the-scenes look at the Jan. 6 investigation. A copy obtained by The Hill in advance of its Tuesday release reveals details on Riggleman’s relationship with his mother as he publicly raised concerns about former President Trump and right-wing conspiracy theories.

“What will it take to wake you up son….I love you so, but cannot stand by and listen to your elitist attitude and being praised by elitist journalist and democrats,” Riggleman’s mother texted him.

Congratulations, she said. “You are now part of the swamp…I’m sorry you were ever elected…You are officially a politician…I have cried over you and my heart is broken by you.”

Riggleman wrote that the text came after CNN’s Jake Tapper interviewed him on Oct. 14, 2020, nearly two weeks after the Virginia Republican sponsored a resolution condemning QAnon that passed the House with 17 Republican “no” votes.

Riggleman’s book, which is titled “The Breach,” has reportedly drawn the ire of his former colleagues on the House Jan. 6 investigation, who do not want information to leak out about the committee’s work. 

Beyond his work on the panel, Riggleman’s book goes on to detail a number of disgruntled messages between him and his mother.

“I knew my mom and I were not on the same page politically, but this is something else,” Riggleman wrote. “Any hope for a mostly normal relationship seemed dim. She was damn near disavowing me.”

The former Virginia congressman describes his mother in the book as being solidly Republican and religious.

Riggleman wrote that she kicked him out of the house after he abandoned his Mormon mission but they still stayed in touch afterward, and their relationship only improved when he unsuccessfully ran for Virginia governor in 2016.

He later won a House seat in 2018, only to lose the Republican nomination two years later as controversy grew over his officiating of a same-sex wedding and more moderate voting record.

In his final months in office, the former intelligence officer became an outspoken advocate against QAnon and Republican support for the conspiracy, including from Trump.

“My relationship with my mom made it through my break with her Mormon Church,” Riggleman wrote in his book. “I wasn’t sure if it could survive the Church of Trump.”

After their relationship soured, Riggleman wrote that he and his mom only reconnected when his sister’s health took a turn for the worse, but the former lawmaker said he never told his mom about his work on the Jan. 6 committee.

“If I can help even one person turn away from this fringe conspiracy culture or recognize Trump for the un-American grifter that he is, it would make everything worth it,” Riggleman wrote. “I’d be especially happy if that one person was my mom.”

Judy Kurtz contributed to this report.

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White House, DeSantis put politics aside amid Hurricane Ian response

The White House on Monday said any political strife with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will not affect its response to Hurricane Ian, which is expected to batter the state in the coming days. 

“What the president believes is that it’s important that federal resources is provided for the people of Florida. That is the most important thing, to make sure that we are there for them in this time of need,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters at a briefing. 

“It’s about the people of Florida. It’s not about public officials, especially in this time,” she added. 

Biden over the weekend approved an emergency declaration in more than 20 counties in Florida to proactively surge resources to those areas and coordinate disaster relief between the state, local and federal governments.  

The White House has repeatedly criticized DeSantis over the last two weeks after the governor flew migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts, seeking to elevate the issue of immigration and place some of the burden of migration onto so-called sanctuary jurisdictions that do not comply with federal immigration officials. 

White House officials have called the move a “political stunt” and derided DeSantis, who is seen as a potential 2024 GOP presidential candidate, for using migrants as political props. 

But the administration was adamant on Monday that any strife with DeSantis would not hinder the federal response to a natural disaster, even if there is no direct contact with the governor. Jean-Pierre said Biden had not spoken with DeSantis about the impending storm. 

She noted that Biden also did not have direct contact with Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) about the water crisis in Jackson but that the federal government still surged resources and personnel to the area to try to address the problem. 

For his part, DeSantis told reporters on Sunday that he’s been in regular contact with FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell as the storm approaches, and he thanked the administration for being “ready to help.”

Forecasters expect Hurricane Ian to peak at a Category 4 storm, then weaken a bit before it makes landfall in Florida. Hillsborough County officials on Monday began ordering some Tampa area residents to evacuate ahead of the storm’s arrival. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Sinema in speech at McConnell Center says 60-vote Senate threshold should be restored

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) on Monday said the Senate should reinstate the 60-vote threshold for all judicial and executive branch nominees.  

Sinema made the comments during a Q&A session following a speech at the McConnell Center at the University of Louisville. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) introduced the Arizona moderate at the event. 

“Not only am I committed to the 60-vote threshold, I have an incredibly unpopular view. I actually think we should restore the 60-vote threshold for the areas in which it has been eliminated already. We should restore it,” Sinema said to cheers from some attendees. 

“Not everyone likes that,” Sinema continued to laughs, “because it would make it harder for us to confirm judges and it would make it harder for us to confirm executive appointments in each administration, but I believe that if we did restore it, we would see more of that middle ground in all parts of our governance, which is what, I believe, our forefathers intended.” 

The 60-vote threshold for non-Supreme Court judicial nominations and executive branch nominees was ended when then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Senate Democrats invoked the so-called “nuclear option” in 2013. McConnell and Republicans went a step further and did so for Supreme Court nominees in 2017 during the confirmation process of Justice Neil Gorsuch. 

Sinema pointed to the volatility of the House, specifically, and the frequency with which both chambers flip control as part of why the filibuster should remain in place.

“It’s likely to change again in just a few weeks,” she said, pointing to the November elections.

“While it is frustrating as a member of the minority in the United States Senate — and equally as frustrating in the majority, because you must have 60 votes to move forward, that frustration represents solely the short-term angst of not getting what you want,” Sinema said. “We shouldn’t get everything we want in the moment because later, upon cooler reflection, you recognize that it has probably gone too far.”

Sinema’s remarks come nine months after she declined to jump on board with President Biden and Senate Democrats in a push to overturn the legislative filibuster to deal with voting rights. The Arizona Democrat also staked out a similar stance in 2019, having told Politico that she wanted to restore the Senate’s supermajority. 

While the remarks are not new, the timing is notable.

They come only three months after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which Democrats have sought to codify into law without success. They also come amid the Democratic stretch run to keep hold of the party’s Senate majority and potentially break the current 50-50 split. 

Sinema is also staring down a likely primary challenge in 2024, potentially by Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), as the progressive wing of the party has grown increasingly frustrated with her in recent years.

On top of her refusal to nix the legislative filibuster in January, Sinema declined to support the original Build Back Better proposal before Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said in December that he could not back it. Sinema ended up voting for the Inflation Reduction Act in August. 

–Updated at 11:44 a.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

The Hill's Morning Report — Eyes on Senate candidates; Democrats’ spending bill cliffhanger

There are 43 days until election Day, but early voting is already happening in a handful of states. That means late-breaking candidate debates, speeches, campaign ads, polls and November’s energy prices won’t impact the decisions of early deciders who are turning in their ballots.

Because key Senate contests are neck and neck as we write this, political pundits are leaning on guesses, favored surveys, media coverage, ad buys and political history to foreshadow outcomes. Is President Biden going to face a Capitol under Republican control, one chamber led by conservatives or an outcome that surprises or disappoints many during an unusually fraught midterm year?

One thing’s certain: The GOP path to a Senate majority has narrowed. Democrats appear increasingly likely to hold their Senate seats in once-foreboding battlegrounds such as Arizona and New Hampshire, while Republicans could hold their breath as their Senate prospects hinge on a couple of states, report The Hill’s Al Weaver and Max Greenwood. 

The Hill’s Caroline Vakil interviewed experienced political analysts to gauge the status in Senate races in which the parties are most likely to experience reversals, including in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In the Keystone State where an open seat has been held by a Republican, the contest between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) and Republican celebrity physician Mehmet Oz saw Democrats voicing confidence from the outset. GOP strategist Scott Jennings said voters are still receiving new information about Fetterman, who suffered a stroke in May and campaigns as a progressive iconoclast. “Coming out of the primary, the polling was pretty stark — obviously Oz had had quite a few negative ads run against him — Fetterman hadn’t.” That has shifted, Jennings said. “I think some of the definitional work on Fetterman is currently being done.”

In Nevada, a state heavily reliant on tourism, the pandemic and the economy are seen as factors in the Senate contest as voters assess Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D), who made history in 2016 as the first Latina to be elected to the Senate, and challenger Republican Adam Laxalt. 

Many believe Nevada is a ripe pickup opportunity for the GOP. “I think that this is one of those races where it’s economy first,” said Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau, a former aide to the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). “Las Vegas especially took a beating during COVID. And folks are still reeling and they’re still recovering, and so I think that’s first and foremost in folks’ minds.”

In Arizona, Republicans sound gloomy as challenger Blake Masters (R) trails Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in poll after poll two weeks before early voting begins, reports The Hill’s Al Weaver. Former astronaut Kelly has “slaughtered” Masters on the airwaves by exploiting his fundraising and Masters’ gaffes, with little response coming from the challenger or outside GOP groups, analysts say. 

“Blake wanted to run an unscripted, unconventional campaign, and he has very much succeeded in doing it that way,” a GOP operative based in the state told The Hill. “You cannot turn on a TV and not see an elderly couple talking about how they’ve paid into Social Security since they were 15 and how Blake wants to take it away. … He is dearly paying for that.” 

Abortion as a campaign issue nationwide is perceived as a net benefit to Democrats because restrictive state laws since June’s Supreme Court ruling are mobilizing the party’s base ahead of Nov. 8, including younger voters and women.

On Friday, an Arizona state court judge ruled that a state law prohibiting nearly all abortions can take effect, forcing clinics in the state to immediately stop offering the procedure (Politico). 

“We’re working alongside our 75,000 members across the Copper State to send a clear message: When you come for our rights, we come for your seat,” responded Caroline Mello Roberson, NARAL Pro-Choice America’s southwest regional director.

In Wisconsin’s oh-so-close Senate contest between incumbent Ron Johnson (R) and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D), Barnes’s early, impressive lead appears to have evaporated, according to polls (The Hill).

▪ The New York Times: GOP Senate candidates, including Masters and Oz, leave the campaign trail for the Beltway money circuit.

▪ The Hill: Five things House Republicans would like to do with a majority in 2023.

▪ NBC News: David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report wrote on Friday that “…the fight for the House has become increasingly competitive.” Offering a deeply reported snapshot, he wrote that 212 races are rated as leaning toward Republicans, 192 races lean toward Democrats and 31 are seen as tossups.  

▪ The Hill: For the first time in U.S. history, two openly LGBTQ+ candidates face off in a congressional race.

Here’s what else we’re watching this week:

Wednesday: The House select committee investigating Jan. 6 plans its ninth public hearing since June at 1 p.m. ET. The agenda had not been announced as of Sunday, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said (The Hill, The Washington Times and NPR).  

Saturday: 🎂Former President Jimmy Carter celebrates his 98th birthday (check out a weekend photo taken of the former president and former first lady Rosalynn Carter by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). 

Related Articles

▪ The Hill: The GOP is uneasy about former President Trump’s legal woes. One Sunday example: Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) disputed Trump’s claim on Fox News last week that he could declassify information simply by thinking about it. Interviewed on ABC’s “This Week,” Barrasso, chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, conceded, “I don’t think a president can declassify documents by saying so, by thinking about it” (The Hill).

▪ The Hill: However, some Trump allies are brushing off the New York attorney general’s lawsuit against the former president.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: The National Archives faces a Tuesday deadline to report on whether more Trump files are missing.

▪ The New York Times: The megastate GOP rivalry between Govs. Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida.

▪ The Washington Post: Trump and DeSantis: Once allies, now in simmering rivalry with 2024 nearing.

▪ The Hill: How Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin became the governor Republicans want to campaign with. The New York Times (opinion) adds why the governor also is criticized for his national political tour.

▪ The Hill: 2024 watch: Seven Democrats most likely to run for president — if Biden bows out. 

LEADING THE DAY

➤ CONGRESS

The threat of a government shutdown is growing as lawmakers on the Hill struggle to reach a deal for a short-term spending bill to provide the government with stopgap funding, writes The Hill’s Aris Folley.

With less than a week until the Oct. 1 deadline, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are pressing for a bill. But there are several roadblocks holding them back.

Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) oil and gas permitting measure is one of them. The West Virginia senator made a deal with Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to include his legislation in the spending bill, but it’s proven unpopular with Democrats and Republicans alike, leaving some worried that the spending bill won’t pass. Schumer told reporters on Thursday that Manchin’s proposal will be in the bill and that senators are “going to vote next week,” but wouldn’t confirm if he thought the whole package could pass the Senate.

▪ Roll Call: Schumer starts process for taking up stopgap funding bill.

▪ New York Magazine: Senators can grumble, but Joe Manchin is getting his reward.

▪ Politico: Senate moves forward to fund government despite snags over Manchin’s energy plan.

▪ NBC News: Congress faces some key obstacles to averting a government shutdown next week.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) was less optimistic when talking to reporters. “I think between Republicans who are not inclined to help Sen. Manchin out of a bind and the Democrats who are going to vote ‘no,’ it doesn’t stand a chance,” he said Thursday.

Senate Republicans are mostly lining up against the controversial bill, with some saying they don’t want to give Manchin a reward after he helped Democrats pass an inflation and tax bill last month.

Speaking on “Fox News Sunday”, Manchin said, “This is not about me.”

“My Republican friends — I’ve been working for 12 years with them — and I know their No. 1 item that they’ve had, the No. 1 priority they’ve had, is permitting reform,” Manchin said. “We can’t build anything in America, it takes five to ten years, the developed world takes one to three years. And why should we be so far behind the developed world?”

Meanwhile, lawmakers are still dealing with a White House request for billions in funding to address Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, the country’s COVID-19 and monkeypox response efforts, as well as disaster relief. The White House is asking for more than $13.7 billion in funding to provide aid to Ukraine, and while members are debating the details of what kind of aid should be supplied, experts predict most of the funding will be approved.

As The Hill’s Jordan Williams writes, Democrats are divided over whether to send Ukraine long-range weapons, especially as Kyiv “proves itself capable with its recent counteroffensive.”

Ukrainian forces have made significant gains in recent weeks, reclaiming thousands of square miles of land that have been under Russian control since it invaded on Feb. 24 — helped in part by over $15 billion in U.S. security assistance. But Kyiv has been asking for longer-range weapons systems for months, leaving Democrats divided: Some support the Biden administration’s cautious approach, while others are prepared to provide the extra aid.

Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) told The Hill that “the Ukrainians now are transitioning their force — they are starting to look more like a NATO military than a former Soviet Union, Warsaw Pact military.”

“They’ve actually shown their ability to do that — to both fight and make that transition, and learn new systems at the same time,” he added. “So now it is time to start providing those more advanced systems — which the administration is doing — and continue to push them to do more of, and to do it on a faster timeline.”

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ ADMINISTRATION

The United States has held private, high-level conversations with Moscow about nuclear weapons, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use them, to try to avoid “a rhetorical tit for tat,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said after warning during three Sunday TV appearances that the U.S. would “respond decisively”  (The Hill) to an escalation of its war with Ukraine by using nuclear weapons.

“If Russia crosses this line, there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia,” Sullivan said during an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “In private channels we have spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean, but we want to be able to have the credibility of speaking directly to senior leadership in Russia and laying out for them what the consequences would be,” he added. Biden similarly warned Putin this month during a CBS “60 Minutes” interview, “Don’t, don’t, don’t.”

Ukrainian military officials today reported an overnight drone strike near the port of Odesa, which sparked a massive fire and explosion (ABC News via AP).

Putin today will meet in Moscow with President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, an ally (Reuters).

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS’s “60 Minutes” on Sunday that the U.S. is conferring with Ukraine about more weapons, including Kyiv’s request for long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS. “Whatever they put on the table is something we’re going to look at, to consider, and we’re going to give them our best judgment about what can be effective for them,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday told CBS’s “Face the Nation” that Putin’s repeated and veiled nuclear threats may not be bluff (The Hill). “It could be a reality,” he said. “Let’s look, what is a contemporary use of nuclear weapons or nuclear blackmail? He targeted and occupied our nuclear power plant and the city of Enerhodar.”

Senior Russian lawmakers expressed concern over Putin’s military mobilization call-up and the resulting widespread public protests. An “exodus” of Russian citizens has followed the “chaotic” mobilization (CNN and NBC News). 

Vyacheslav Volodin, the Speaker of the Duma, the lower chamber of parliament, said in a Sunday statement that appeals are coming in from those who believe they were incorrectly drafted. “Each case should be dealt with separately,” he said. “If a mistake is made, it must be corrected.”

Zelensky on Sunday said Putin’s mobilization of what Russia identified as 300,000 fighters (and which analysts believe is higher) was a sign the Kremlin is struggling to win the war. “They admitted that their army is not able to fight with Ukraine anymore,” he told CBS during a Sunday interview. “They did not expect the resistance that they received from us.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sunday told “Meet the Press” that Putin is “very dangerous … and desperate,” predicting “he will not win the war” (NBC News). 

The Washington Post: Military mobilization prompts backlash among Russians. Russia’s annexation effort in Ukraine plows ahead. New strikes in Ukraine. 

The United States has warned China that the outcome of a potential invasion of independent Taiwan could mirror the costly repercussions of Russia’s war with Ukraine. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall last week said Chinese leaders “would be making an enormous mistake to invade Taiwan,” pointing out Russia’s economic consequences since February’s invasion of its democratic neighbor (The Hill). 

The administration is on the verge of a significant breakthrough in Middle East relations as it pursues an agreement between Israel and Lebanon on territorial maritime borders. Negotiations appeared to be nearing the finish line among U.S., Israeli and Lebanese officials who met on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York last week, The Hill’s Laura Kelly reports. 

OPINION

■ The House GOP’s vague “commitment” reveals problems ahead, by Karen Tumulty, deputy editorial page editor, The Washington Post: https://wapo.st/3ReYGH0 

■ The cost of Putin’s Ukraine escalation is already clear, by Lara Williams, editor, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3DTXZ3c

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The Senate convenes Tuesday at 3 p.m. and resumes consideration of the motion to proceed to the legislative vehicle for the continuing resolution.

The president will depart Wilmington, Del., and arrive at the White House at 10:35 a.m. Biden will host the Atlanta Braves in the East Room at 11:45 a.m. to celebrate their 2021 World Series championship. He will address the third meeting of the White House Competition Council at 4:15 p.m. 

Vice President Harris will arrive today in Tokyo, where she will lead the U.S. delegation at the Tuesday state funeral for former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was murdered in July during a campaign speech. Today she will meet at 5:30 p.m. JST with Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and attend a dinner he is hosting at Akasaka Palace. The vice president will remain in Tokyo for events and meetings early this week and then travel to South Korea, where she will meet with President Yoon Suk Yeol (CBS News).

The secretary of State meets at 11 a.m. with Belizean Prime Minister John Briceño at the Department of State. Blinken will meetat the department with Pakistani Foreign Minister Bhutto Zardari at 3:30 p.m., and deliver joint remarks about flood relief with Zardari at 4:15 p.m. at Washington’s National Museum of American Diplomacy. The secretary will host a working dinner at 6:30 p.m. in McLean, Va., for Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1:30 p.m.

🖥  Hill.TV’s “Rising” program features news and interviews at http://thehill.com/hilltv, on YouTube and on Facebook at 10:30 a.m. ET. Also, check out the “Rising” podcast here.

ELSEWHERE

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ended its requirement for mask-wearing indoors in nursing homes and hospitals, unless communities see “high” levels of COVID-19 transmission. The guidance change, one of many published Friday evening for COVID-19 infection control for healthcare workers, marks one of the final sets of such revisions that began in August. At the outset of the pandemic, the CDC urged “everyone” to wear “source control,” such as well-fitting masks or respirators, while in healthcare settings (CBS News).

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,056,416. Current average U.S. COVID-19 daily deaths are 356, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

➤ STATE & TERRITORY WATCH

Ian is officially a hurricane this morning and is on a projected path northward toward Florida’s Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center (WESH).DeSantis on Friday declared a state of emergency in the Sunshine State in advance of Ian’s wrath (Bloomberg News). And NASA delayed its planned Tuesday liftoff of rocket Artemis I to the moon from Cape Canaveral because of Ian’s weather risks and will make a decision today about whether to roll the enormous rocket back into its hangar, which could mean a launch delay until November (Orlando Sentinel). 

Restoration challenges from Hurricane Fiona’s recent destruction in Puerto Rico include the island’s vulnerable electricity grid, reports The Hill’s Rachel Frazin. The storm left millions of residents without power for days. 

➤ INTERNATIONAL

Protests continue in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who died after being arrested by the country’s morality police for “improper dress.” Amini’s death sparked widespread protests across Iran, where crowds are objecting to the country’s strict religious rules.

Demonstrators “in dozens of cities have chanted ‘women, life and freedom’ and ‘death to the dictator,’ rejecting the Iranian Republic’s theocratic rule by targeting one of its most fundamental and divisive symbols — the ailing supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,” The New York Times reports.

Women are removing their headscarves — which, along with conservative dress, are mandated in Iran — in protest, with some burning the fabric in the streets. Iranian state media said Friday that at least 35 people have been killed in the unrest, but human rights organizations said on Saturday that the number is likely to be much higher (The New York Times). 

With protests in nearly 80 cities, these demonstrations mark the largest anti-government protests in Iran in over a decade. In response, police and government officials are tightening restrictions, including suspending internet access across the country (BBC).

▪ The Washington Post: Videos show Iran’s violent crackdown as protests intensify.

▪ CNN: Iranians are risking it all to protest. Their families say some of them aren’t coming home.

▪ NBC News: Iran hints at deeper crackdown after woman’s death in police custody triggers violent protests.

▪ The Hill: Why Iranian women are burning hijabs.

Italy is set to form its furthest-right government since World War II, with its first female prime minister. Projections based on a partial vote count on Monday showed a clear victory for a coalition led by Giorgia Meloni and her party, the Brothers of Italy (The Washington Post). 

Early Monday morning, Meloni addressed her supporters and members of the media, saying it was “a night of pride for many and a night of redemption.”

“It’s a victory I want to dedicate to everyone who is no longer with us and wanted this night,” she said. “Starting tomorrow we have to show our value … Italians chose us, and we will not betray it, as we never have.”

In the campaign, Meloni vowed to close off pathways to undocumented immigrants, defend “traditional” values and push back against bureaucracy in Brussels. Following her apparent win, Meloni and the coalition are poised to form a new government in the coming weeks (ABC News).

THE CLOSER

And finally … It’s the stuff of Hollywood movies, transformed into experimental big bang space defense.

NASA tonight at 7:14 p.m. ET plans to slam a spacecraft into an asteroid that is 7 million miles from Earth in a mission named the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) (not a name Hollywood would have dreamed up). 

The target is the asteroid “moonlet” named Dimorphos (The Verge), the unsuspecting guinea pig NASA chose to test whether scientists can change the path of a future dangerous asteroid if one heads toward Earth. 

Being prepared reflects experience: Some 26,115 asteroids have skimmed past the planet since 1990, according to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (The Jerusalem Post). The space agency has an acronym for the ominous ones: PHA, or “Potentially Hazardous Asteroid.” 

The DART mission launched on Nov. 23, and sent its spacecraft into the atmosphere atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. If successful, the experiment will mark a major first step in NASA’s efforts to devise a “kinetic impactor” that could deflect a dangerous asteroid if it might strike the Earth (The Washington Post).

“Mission success is pretty clear: You need to hit that asteroid,” said Elena Adams, an engineer at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Md., which is conducting the mission under contract with NASA.

Scientists won’t know what Dimorphos looks like until an hour before the spacecraft is set to hit it, but the aftermath would be captured by telescopes — if the rocket strikes its target (The New York Times).

The Hill: Five things to know about NASA’s mission to hit an asteroid.

Stay Engaged

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Juan Williams: An odd race in Utah gives hope to the nation

Look it up.

Since 1971, only eight United States Senators have been independent or affiliated with a third party.

The ninth may be on his way if Evan McMullin wins the Utah Senate race this year.

The election is one-of-a-kind strange in that McMullin is a lifelong Republican running with the tacit endorsement of Utah Democrats, who decided against running any candidate of their own.

His opponent is Trump ally and two-term incumbent, Sen. Mike Lee (R). The campaign is already labeled by Politico as “the strangest Senate race in America.”

What takes it beyond strange to significant is that a McMullin win potentially opens a new way for politicians to get out of the rut of polarized, do-nothing, two-party politics. 

Think of McMullin as Luke Skywalker, the rebel pilot in Star Wars, trying to blow up the Empire’s star ship. 

Last year, 62 percent of voters told Gallup they want a third-party alternative to the Republicans and Democrats. Those numbers mean McMullin is an underdog in the right place at the right time to benefit from widespread discontent . 

In other words, to continue the Star Wars analogy, a lot of people well beyond Utah’s corners are hoping “The Force” is with McMullin.

Inside Utah, the Democrats are betting that the best odds for beating a far-right Trump sycophant in this deep-red state is with a moderate Republican. At a time of division between the parties, the state’s Democrats are asking the state’s GOP majority to join them in rejecting extremism.

There is no doubt about Lee’s extremism — even though he did eventually vote to certify the election — because of earlier text messages he exchanged with Trump’s former White House Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows, offering support to Trump’s illegal efforts to overturn that election. 

“There also are those in the Senate who, I think, are dangerously extreme, Sen. Lee is one of them, and others who have contributed to a weakening of this institution of Congress, and the Senate and of our democracy,” McMullin told NBC’s Chuck Todd in July. 

A poll from the Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics released last Thursday showed Lee with a mere two-point lead over McMullin. Other polls show Lee with a bigger lead.

But the reality that the race is closer than expected bodes well not just for McMullin but for other unaffiliated candidates across the nation looking to upend what many see as a paralyzed two-party system. 

Multiple polls show voters have a strong appetite for something other than tribal politics, bitter personal attacks and appeals to racial anger.

A Pew poll from August found 38 percent saying they strongly “wish there were more political parties to choose from in this country.”

There is an audience for politicians willing to take an independent stand on solving problems.

McMullin offers a model to voters nationwide of the potential to find independent-minded politicians in local and congressional races.

This is the same design being attempted by the new Forward party founded by Andrew Yang, former Rep. David Jolly (R-Fla.), and former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman (R).

“For the first time in modern history, roughly half of Americans consider themselves ‘independents,’ and two-thirds say a new party is needed (and would vote for it),” the trio wrote in the Washington Post in July.

Yang, Jolly and Whitman added: “Some call third parties ‘spoilers,’ but the system is already spoiled. There are more than 500,000 elected positions in the United States, but a recent study found more than 70 percent of races on ballots in 2020 were unopposed or uncontested. A tiny sliver of U.S. congressional seats will have close races this November. The two major parties have shut out competition, and America is suffering as a result.”

If he makes it to the Senate, McMullin says he plans to remain independent of both the Democrats’ and Republicans’ caucus politics. 

Maine’s Sen. Angus King and Vermont’s Sen. Bernie Sanders, both independents, caucus with Democrats. 

Once McMullin gets to the Senate he wants to remain open to talks with Republicans and Democrats and even voting with either side if their stand on an issue holds appeal for him.

The number one issue for him, he says, is protecting democracy from Trump’s election deniers. 

That fits with a former senator from Utah, the late Bob Bennett.

In the days before he died in 2016, Bennett felt the need to personally apologize to every Muslim he met for the hateful words coming from Trump.

Win or lose, McMullin’s candidacy brings new life to the idea of independent candidacies. If he wins it will be historic.

Go, Evan, Go! 

Juan Williams is an author, and a political analyst for Fox News Channel.

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