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1 in 3 says Trump did not have secret documents at Mar-a-Lago: survey

One-third of adults in a new survey indicated they don’t believe former President Trump had top-secret and other classified material at his Mar-a-Lago estate this summer.

The Marquette Law School poll released Thursday found that 67 percent of respondents said that they believe he did have such documents, although the results varied widely among partisan groups.

Thirty-nine percent of Republicans said that they believe Trump had top-secret and classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, compared to 65 percent of independents and 93 percent of Democrats.

The FBI executed a search warrant at Trump’s Florida property in August, saying agents retrieved some 33 boxes with roughly 100 classified documents.

Trump and his allies have accused the search of being politically motivated, and the former president told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Wednesday evening that he could declassify sensitive documents just “by thinking about it.”

Most adults in the new survey who expressed a favorable view of Trump, regardless of party, did not agree that he had classified documents in his possession, while 8 in 10 with an unfavorable opinion said that he did.

Eighty-five percent of Republicans with an unfavorable opinion of Trump said that they believed he had such documents, compared to a quarter of Republicans who held a favorable view of the former president.

Two-thirds of Republicans polled also said they would like to see Trump run for president in 2024, which is down slightly from July.

The Mar-a-Lago search has led to a flurry of attacks against the FBI and Justice Department levied by Trump and some Republicans.

Only 11 percent of Republicans indicated they had a great deal of confidence in the FBI, compared to 29 percent of Democrats, according to the new poll.

Sixteen percent of Republicans said they had no confidence at all in the FBI, and an additional 25 percent said they had very little confidence, figures that both outpaced Democrats and independents.

The presence of documents with classification markings have further complicated the case.

A federal judge had approved a special master to examine the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago and weed out privileged materials, temporarily blocking the Justice Department from using the documents in their criminal investigation.

But an appeals court on Wednesday granted the Justice Department’s request to continue reviewing the documents with classification markings.

The new poll was conducted from Sept. 7 to Sept. 14 through interviews with 1,448 U.S. adults. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points.

Source: TEST FEED1

The Hill's Morning Report — More war and US recession ahead?

President Biden tried to navigate a pair of gloomy warnings on Wednesday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ramped up his nuclear and other threats against Ukraine and the West, and the chairman of the Federal Reserve hours later foreshadowed a “painful” U.S. economic downturn as collateral damage in a fight against inflation.

The consequences of governing during global unrest and domestic economic jitters in an election year could spell political pain for Biden and his party as well as for leaders in European capitals in the days ahead.

Speaking in New York City to the United Nations General Assembly, Biden said Russia has “shamelessly violated” the body’s basic tenets during its seven-month war with Ukraine and summoned nations to stand firmly behind Ukrainian resistance. Because Russia and ally China have veto power as members of the U.N. Security Council, the world body’s authority against Russia is limited.

Reuters: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking to U.N. leaders remotely, demanded a special tribunal ​​to impose “just punishment” on Russia.

Biden pointed to Putin’s Wednesday announcement ordering a partial mobilization of military reservists, an unpopular step that triggered immediate protests in Russia. He also condemned Putin’s nuclear threats aimed at Europe, saying the Russian president showed “reckless disregard” for his country’s responsibilities as a signer of the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Biden, who has promised “consequences” but broached no timeline in reaction to Putin’s struggling war strategy, criticized Russia’s significant escalation using “sham referenda” as a way to annex territory in Ukraine that it has forcibly occupied since February and that Ukrainian forces want back (The New York Times).

“We will stand in solidarity against Russia’s aggression, period,” Biden vowed.

In Washington, central bank Chairman Jerome Powell announcedthe Fed is raising its benchmark interest rate by another three-quarters of a percentage point and noted that the war in Ukraine helped spark rising U.S. energy prices, added to supply chain disruptions and helped trigger inflationary pressures that linger. Food shortages are another consequence of the war in Ukraine and Biden on Wednesday pledged $2.9 billion to tackle global food security and climate change.

The Fed’s hikes aimed at constraining demand have raised mortgage rates and slowed the housing market, curbed some hiring and reined in economic output. The combination of the Fed’s actions should eventually lead to lower inflation, economists agree, but anemic U.S. growth and even a recession are now woven into some forecasts.

Inflation has been stubbornly persistent since the Fed’s rate hikes began, and central bank officials have pledged to continue to raise the costs of borrowing until they see clear signs of slowing at or near the Fed’s target rate of 2 percent, The Hill’s Sylvan Lane reports. Prices continue to increase at more than three times that target.

“We have got to get inflation behind us,” Powell said during a news conference. “I wish there were a painless way to do that; there isn’t.”

▪ MarketWatch: The Fed’s forecast for rising unemployment signals recession ahead. Or does it?

▪ CNBC: DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach: “I do think the unemployment rate is going to go up and I do think we’re headed to a recession. … But now [the Fed is] so committed to this 2 percent that I think the odds of a recession in 2023 are very high. I mean, I would put them at 75 percent.”

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a Democrat and frequent critic of what he describes as the Fed’s overly rosy outlook since last year, tweeted his latest reactions to Wednesday’s data, writing, “Happy to bet anyone that we see 6 months of unemployment above 5 [percent] before we see 6 months of inflation below 2.5.”

Related Articles

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Putin turns to familiar escalation playbook.

▪ Reuters: United Nations showdown looms today between Russian foreign minister and the West over atrocities in Ukraine.

▪ The New York Times: North Korea on Thursday denied U.S. claims it is selling arms to Russia; denounced “reckless” rumor. 

▪ The Hill: Putin takes a big risk by mobilizing a larger military force for the Ukraine war.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: How the Fed’s rate increases will hit Americans’ monthly budgets.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ POLITICS & INVESTIGATIONS

Former President Trump on Wednesday found himself newly pressured by an ongoing Justice Department investigation and by a lawsuit alleging fraud brought by the New York attorney general. 

A federal appeals court backed the Justice Department and allowed the government to resume a criminal investigation using documents marked as classified that were seized from Trump’s residence last month, blocking for now a lower court’s order that had strictly limited the investigation into Trump’s handling of government materials (The New York Times).

New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) announced that her office is suing Trump and his company, alleging they padded his net worth by billions of dollars by manipulating the value of prized assets including golf courses, hotels and his homes at Trump Tower and Mar-a-Lago.

James dubbed it “the art of the steal” and is seeking repayment of at least $250 million she alleges the Trumps pocketed from the scheme. The attorney general’s lawsuit, filed in state court in New York, is the culmination of the Democrat’s three-year civil investigation of Trump and the Trump Organization. Trump’s three eldest children, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump and Eric Trump, were also named as defendants, along with two longtime company executives, Allen Weisselberg and Jeffrey McConney (The Hill).

▪ The Washington Post: Five takeaways from the New York attorney general’s sweeping lawsuit against Trump.

▪ ABC News: New York attorney general files a $250 million lawsuit against Trump for defrauding lenders, others.

▪ The New York Times: Trump accused of overvaluing his assets in New York lawsuit.

▪ Politico: Trump: I could declassify documents by thinking about it.

Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, has agreed to an interview with the Jan. 6 select committee (CNN). The committee previously obtained emails between Thomas and attorney John Eastman, a Trump adviser who counseled the former president that then-Vice President Mike Pence had the power to halt the formal certification of Trump’s 2020 election loss (The Washington Post).

Meanwhile, pro-Trump gubernatorial candidates in critical battleground states are running into a familiar problem, writes The Hill’s Caroline Vakil. Like their House and Senate counterparts, they’re struggling to win a wider audience. In states such as Arizona and Pennsylvania, Republican gubernatorial candidates have made no secret about embracing Trump as they’ve tracked to the right on issues ranging from abortion to the 2020 election. But those hard-right stances threaten to cost them in November, when they’ll need the backing of suburban voters and other more moderate voters to pull them over the finish line.

“When you have candidates who essentially aren’t helping themselves by staking out either extreme positions, or extreme positions on weird issues that only speak to a real core Trump part of the base, it’s not a surprise then that there are going to be struggles,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye.

▪ The Hill’s Niall Stanage: The controversy is deepening over migrant flights undertaken at the behest of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). Here’s a look at legal issues raised and challenges DeSantis faces — including in a class-action suit filed Tuesday afternoon.

The White House sees the GOP’s fumbled abortion messaging as an opportunity, The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Amie Parnes write. Biden seeks to use recent GOP messaging — such Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) 15-week abortion ban — to position Democrats as the party of common sense when it comes to reproductive health care policy. 

“For once, I think they’re actually doing it,” Democratic strategist Christy Setzer told The Hill. “On [Capitol] Hill, they’re not taking the bait on legislation like Lindsey Graham’s 15 week ban. They’re calling it out as a nationwide ban, which it is, rather than focusing on the policy details.”

Biden has hit his highest approval ratings in nearly a year, leaving Democrats wondering if he can outlast the fall. Less than 50 days out from Election Day, Biden has seen his approval rise with successes as Republicans scramble to reclaim at least one chamber of Congress.

While many Democrats see less than a pot of gold for their party — “Five points of optimism is a lot for a Democrat to imagine,” as one operative put it — others are hoping the recent gains create a ripple effect for Biden’s re-election prospects. The Hill’s Hanna Trudo and Amie Parnes outline five scenarios that could help Biden in 2024.

▪ The Hill: Why Democrats are trying to make midterms a referendum on Trump, GOP.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ CONGRESS

The House on Wednesday passed the Presidential Election Reform Act 229-203, with nine Republicans supporting it alongside all Democrats. The bill, co-sponsored by Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) — two members of the Jan. 6 select committee — seeks to modernize the Electoral Count Act of 1887.

The bill raises the threshold for members of Congress to object to electoral results, clarifies the vice president’s role during the counting of electoral votes and lays out an expedited court process for election challenges among other changes. It seeks to modernize the very law that supporters of former president Trump tried to manipulate during the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection (Politico).

The White House announced its support for the bill in a Wednesday statement, saying “the Administration shares the Congress’ interest in safeguarding the electoral process to preserve the will of the people, as expressed through democratic procedures established by law.”

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Wednesday challenged those opposed to the legislation on the House floor, asking, “How could anyone vote against free and fair elections — the cornerstone of our Constitution?”

“How could anyone vote against our founder’s vision, placing power in the hands of the people?” Pelosi asked. “How could anyone vote against their own constituents, allowing radical politicians to rip away their say in our democracy?”

▪ The Hill: These are the nine House Republicans who voted for the Jan. 6 election reform bill.

Meanwhile, the Senate is working on its own version of an Electoral Count Act reform bill, co-sponsored by Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). While the Senate proposal addresses many of the same key points as the House legislation, it makes no direct references to Jan. 6 (The Hill).

Senators emphasize the bipartisan nature of their bill, which is co-sponsored by 10 Republicans and 10 Democrats (Punchbowl News).

“We will keep working to advance our bill to correct the flaws in this archaic & ambiguous law,” Collins tweeted Wednesday.

The Senate Electoral Count Act reform bill isn’t the only thing on Manchin’s plate. The West Virginia senator on Wednesday evening unveiled legislative language for his permitting reform proposal, which has drawn bipartisan criticism in the past few weeks.

As The Hill’s Rachel Frazin reports, Manchin’s text includes several provisions previously outlined in a fact sheet, including those that would benefit the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline that runs through his home state to Virginia. The bill would also limit the timelines for environmental reviews and would require the president to keep a list of 25 energy projects of strategic national importance for 10 years.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said Wednesday that he opposes the permitting agreement over its inclusion of the provision. The section “is completely unacceptable. I was not consulted about it. I will do everything I can to oppose it,” Kaine said.

Meanwhile Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told reporters he is in favor of the bill, stating it would help expedite transmission projects.

Manchin reached an agreement with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to move forward with the permitting reforms in exchange for his support of a massive tax, climate and health care bill that Congress approved in August. But Democrats — who see Manchin’s bill as too lax on environmental regulations — and Republicans alike are now raising concerns.

House Natural Resources Committee Chair Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) released a statement in opposition to the bill.

“My colleagues and I don’t want this,” Grijalva said in the statement. “The communities that are already hit hardest by the fossil fuel industry’s messes certainly don’t want or deserve this. Even Republicans don’t want this.”

Many Republicans, who are still angry at Manchin over his support of Schumer’s bill, are backing an alternative measure sponsored by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) that also aims to speed up environmental review timelines, reports The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. GOP Senators say Manchin’s bill is unlikely to pass if it remains attached to a stopgap government funding bill Schumer plans to bring to the floor next week.

▪The Washington Post: Clash over energy projects could threaten government funding bill.

▪ The Atlantic: Manchin’s new bill could lead to one big climate win.

▪ Houston Chronicle: Manchin moves to speed up energy permitting.

▪ Reuters: Manchin releases permitting bill to speed energy projects.

▪ The New York Times: Manchin’s gas pipeline deal irks both parties, snarling spending bill.

Also on the congressional docket:

A House policing package of four bills heads to the floor after centrists and progressives reached an unlikely preelection deal (Politico).

The House on Wednesday passed a bill that allows spouses who combined their student debts under a federal program to split their loans, sending the legislation to Biden’s desk (The Hill).

GOP senators on Wednesday grilled Biden’s nominee, Julie Rikelman, appointed to the 1st Circuit Court of Appeals in Boston, over her past work leading an abortion advocacy organization. Rikelman previously represented the Mississippi abortion clinic at the center of this year’s Supreme Court case that overturned Roe v. Wade (The Hill).

OPINION

■ Putin is getting desperate. Ukraine and the West must keep the pressure on, by The Washington Post editorial board. https://wapo.st/3xIaATb

■ Putin’s new cannon fodder won’t win the Ukraine war, by James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion columnist. https://bloom.bg/3Uv30Fe

WHERE AND WHEN

🍁It’s the first day of autumn! 

The House meets at 9 a.m. … 🦴Rep. Tony Cárdenas (D-Calif.) will team up with Cruelty Free International and Homeward Trails Animal Rescue in the Rayburn House Office Building beginning at 11 a.m. for a meet-and-greet with adorable, recently rescued beagles as he touts the pending ​​CARE Act, otherwise known as the Companion Animal Release from Experiments Act, which would require research facilities funded by the National Institutes of Health to craft post-research policies for the adoption of dogs, cats and rabbits.  

The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. and resumes consideration of the motion to proceed to the Disclose Act.  … Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) will speak about the CHIPS and Science Act during a newsmaker event beginning at 10:30 a.m. hosted by Arizona State University and the Washington Business Journal. Information is HERE.

The president will hold a bilateral meeting at 11 a.m. in New York City with President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. of the Philippines. Biden will receive a 2:15 p.m. briefing about Hurricane Fiona, damage in Puerto Rico and the government’s response. He will headline a Democratic National Committee reception at 4:40 p.m., after which he will depart the Big Apple and return to the White House, arriving at 7:45 p.m.

Vice President Harris will travel to Milwaukee and meet with a group of young people and local Latino leaders at 1 p.m.. She will address the Democratic Attorneys General Association conference at 2:15 p.m. The vice president will return to Washington this evening.

Economic indicator: The Labor Department will report at 8:30 a.m. on filings for unemployment benefits in the week ending Sept. 17.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will meet with state and local leaders for a “Communities in Action: Building a Better North Carolina” event at 10:30 a.m. He will address an Equity in Focus Summit at the Labor Department at 1:50 p.m. Emhoff will host a 4 p.m. roundtable discussion at the vice president’s residence with multi-faith college students about the meaning of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year.

🖥  Hill.TV’s “Rising” program features news and interviews at http://thehill.com/hilltv, on YouTube and on Facebook at 10:30 a.m. ET. Also, check out the “Rising” podcast here.

ELSEWHERE

➤ INTERNATIONAL

The United States supports protests in Iran, which emerged after a 22-year-old woman died while being held by the morality police for violating the country’s strictly enforced Islamic dress code, Biden said on Wednesday in New York. “Today we stand with the brave citizens and the brave women of Iran, who right now are demonstrating to secure their basic rights.” The president also called out human rights abuses by China, Burma and the Taliban.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi announced Wednesday that his country is ready to revive its nuclear agreement with the United States but raised questions about Washington’s commitment to the accord. Speaking at the U.N. General Assembly, Raisi said the United States had already “trampled” on a previous deal when it pulled out of the agreement in 2018 during the Trump administration.

Iran has since revived its nuclear program, which it insists is for peaceful energy purposes. In exchange for an agreement to the terms of a new nuclear deal, Iran is requesting relief on economic sanctions and greater access to global financial markets (Axios).

“There is a great and serious will to resolve all issues” in the nuclear talks, Raisi said, adding, “Our wish is only one thing: observance of commitments.”

The Hill: Biden stresses protecting Good Friday Agreement during his first meeting with British Prime Minister Liz Truss.

Ten prisoners, including Americans, were released from captivity on Wednesday as part of a Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap mediated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry. Among those released were Alex Drueke, a former U.S. Army staff sergeant who served two tours in Iraq, according to his aunt. Andy Tai Ngoc Huynh, a former U.S. Marine, was also released. They had volunteered to fight in Ukraine and were captured near the city of Kharkiv on June 9 alongside other foreign soldiers (The New York Times).

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

Virus trackers this week are focusing on another COVID-19 strain, which may be more transmissible than BA.5, the dominant omicron subvariant now in circulation. Scientists say the new subvariant, BF.7, has been active in other countries and is making its way to the United States. BF.7 is actually a sublineage of BA.5, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Its official name is BA.5.2.1.7, but scientists have shortened it to BF.7 in reporting documents (Fortune). The Food and Drug Administration recently approved Pfizer and Moderna vaccine boosters tailored to BA.4 and BA.5 versions of COVID-19. Federal information to help locate the newest booster doses is HERE.

The Hill: Here are five reasons the COVID-19 pandemic in this country may linger.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,055,196. Current average U.S. COVID-19 daily deaths are 356, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

➤ HURRICANE FIONA

The death toll in Puerto Rico has risen to eight as Hurricane Fiona, now a Category 4 storm, moves toward Bermuda in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. It’s estimated that 1.07 million homes and businesses remain without power in Puerto Rico (CNBC).

Biden on Wednesday approved a major disaster declaration for Puerto Rico, according to Gov. Pedro Pierluisi, which will grant access to emergency assistance for residents affected by the storm(NBC News).

Meteorologists predict Fiona will brush Bermuda and then head north toward Atlantic Canada (The Weather Channel and CNN). The Canadian province of Nova Scotia is braced for the storm’s landfall as officials urge residents to prepare for strong winds, heavy rain and storm surges (CBC and Reuters).

THE CLOSER

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! Inspired by some interesting recent quotes in the news, we’re eager to hear from puzzle masters who recognize the darnedest things some leaders have said.

Email your responses to asimendinger@thehill.com and/or kkarisch@thehill.com, and please add “Quiz” to subject lines. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

Biden, during a TV interview that aired on Sunday, said what is “over”?

1. His patience with TV interviews
2. The pandemic
3. Summer
4. U.S. economic expansion

Putin on Wednesday told Russians during a televised address, “This is not a bluff.” To what did he refer?

1. His willingness to use Russia’s nuclear arsenal
2. Russia’s proposed cease-fire with Ukraine
3. Kremlin’s offer to donate natural gas to Europe this winter
4. His booking to wrestle a bear on “Last Hero,” Russian TV’s version of “Survivor” 

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham surprised some fellow Republicans during a Monday TV interview when he said what is “not a states’ rights issue”?

1. National Guard
2. K-12 public education
3. Abortion
4. Gun control

Former British foreign secretary and new Prime Minister Liz Truss, who on Wednesday met with counterparts at the U.N., told reporters in August (and was asked again on Wednesday about her comment) that the “jury’s out” whether _____ is the United Kingdom’s friend or foe?

1. Germany
2. The House of Windsor
3. France
4. Brexit

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

Source: TEST FEED1

What you need to know about the complex legal challenges to Ron DeSantis’s migrant flights 

The incendiary issue of the transportation of migrants has flared once again — and it’s not going anywhere. 

The latest spark came when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) organized two flights of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts on Sep. 14. 

Beyond the fact that around 50 people, many of them originally from Venezuela, were transported to the island, little else is agreed upon. 

DeSantis has stood over the move and is getting significant support from Republicans and conservatives. 

But the flights have elicited uproar on the left and among immigration advocates. Some of the migrants have filed a class-action suit against DeSantis, other Democratic politicians have implied he has committed crimes, and even a Texas sheriff has gotten involved. 

DeSantis appears adamant that there will be more flights. 

Here are the main legal issues. 

The migrants’ class-action suit 

The class-action suit filed on Tuesday is the most dramatic and concrete legal development to date. 

The suit was filed in federal court in Massachusetts. It takes aim at DeSantis, Florida Secretary of Transportation Jared Perdue and the state of Florida.

The core of the case is the allegation that the migrants were coaxed onto the flights by false promises — “fraudulent inducement” in legal terms — and that this means DeSantis and his allies infringed those migrants’ rights and committed fraud.

It asserts that migrants were approached outside a shelter in San Antonio by mysterious people who won their trust by supplying them with minimal benefits such as McDonald’s vouchers. 

In one instance, it is alleged, “several dozen people” were asked to sign a document in order to receive a $10 McDonald’s gift card.  

The document, according to the legal filing, “was not completely translated to Spanish: an entire paragraph about liability and transport was not translated at all, and language specifying that the journey would take place from Texas to Massachusetts was not translated at all either.” 

The plaintiffs also allege they were given brochures bearing the title “Massachusetts Refugee Benefits” and promising wide-ranging help with housing, clothes and transportation for job interviews. 

In fact, the brochure had been put together by Florida officials, the suit alleges. Massachusetts’s real refugee resettlement plan, the filing notes, has “highly specific requirements for which no members of the putative class are eligible.” 

The class-action lawsuit, brought in conjunction with Alianza Americas, a network of migrant-led organizations, outlines 12 different “causes for action,” including violations of the Fourth Amendment and Fourteenth Amendment, and the intentional infliction of emotional distress. 

One of the lawyers representing the migrants, Oren Sellstrom, told The Hill, “Our complaint alleges a number of violations of both the U.S. Constitution and federal laws. A state governor just cannot fraudulently induce vulnerable individuals to board a plane and cross state lines.” 

Sellstrom, the litigation director at Lawyers for Civil Rights, described the alleged conduct as shocking.

“You describe it and then almost have to step back and realize that it actually happened, it was actually orchestrated by an American governor,” he said. 

DeSantis’s team counters that the migrants took the flights voluntarily — an assertion that, if proved true, would negate most, if not all, of the lawsuit’s claims. 

Taryn Feske, DeSantis’s communications director, said in a statement that the relocations were done on a “voluntary basis.”  

DeSantis’s office also provided a copy of consent forms to reporters, which list “Massachusetts” as the final destination and which they say the migrants signed.

“The immigrants were homeless, hungry, and abandoned — and these activists didn’t care about them then,” said Feske. “Florida’s program gave them a fresh start in a sanctuary state and these individuals opted to take advantage of chartered flights to Massachusetts.” 

DeSantis himself told Sean Hannity of Fox News on Monday, “It was clearly voluntary and all the other nonsense you’re hearing is just not true.”

The Democrats’ accusations of possible criminality 

Alongside the civil suit, Democratic politicians have called on the Department of Justice (DOJ) to investigate whether crimes might have been committed by the Florida governor or people working on his behalf. 

The most prominent figure to make such as call is California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who has tangled repeatedly with DeSantis in recent months.  

Each man is considered a possible 2024 presidential contender. 

Last week, Newsom penned a public letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland.  

He encouraged Garland to investigate whether the alleged fraudulent inducements offered to the migrants “would support charges of kidnapping under relevant state laws” — something that could, in turn, “serve as a predicate offense” for charges under so-called RICO statues, which were originally drawn up to fight organized crime. 

A Democratic state representative in Massachusetts, Dylan Fernandes, has called for an investigation along similar lines. 

He tweeted on Sept. 18 that the DOJ should investigate “legal implications around fraud, kidnapping, deprivation of liberty, and human trafficking.” 

Of course, if the DeSantis defense that the migrants took the flights voluntarily carries the day, allegations of kidnapping would go nowhere. 

Even those sympathetic to the migrants’ plight see steep challenges for a criminal prosecution. 

It seems questionable whether the DOJ would bring criminal charges against a sitting governor — and potential presidential candidate — on a matter as loaded and polarizing as immigration unless the evidence of illegality was absolutely clear-cut. 

“The FBI and DOJ probably have to look into this. They almost have no choice,” said Jesse Bless, an attorney specializing in immigration matters.  

Referring to the alleged conduct by state officials, Bless said, “Certainly you couldn’t do this to a U.S. citizen — and people in the U.S., regardless of [immigration] status, do have civil rights protections.” 

Yet, at the same time, Bless acknowledged, “I don’t know what the remedy would be.” 

“Does DeSantis go to jail?” he added, making clear he sees such an end result as improbable. 

The sheriff’s investigation 

Among the curious elements of the Martha’s Vineyard episode, one stands out: The sequence of events originated in Texas, not Florida. 

Many of the migrants claim that their first point of contact occurred outside or near the shelter in San Antonio. There, they say they were contacted by unidentified people — one woman gave her name as “Perla” — who set in motion the process by which they eventually ended up in Massachusetts. 

Their flights, in fact, first left Texas before touching down in Florida en route to Massachusetts. 

That, in turn, has led the sheriff of Bexar County, Texas — where San Antonio is located — to launch his own investigation.  

Sheriff Javier Salazar, a Democrat, has been vaguer than others in outlining exactly what he is investigating, however. 

Salazar has told reporters that he believes the migrants were “lured under false pretenses,” including the promise of work. He has said they were “exploited and hoodwinked.” 

But Salazar’s broad statements make it hard to evaluate where his probe goes next.  

Speaking with CNN this week, he noted, with respect to DeSantis, “I have not said and nor will I say … that I’ve got the governor under investigation.” 

The budgetary questions 

Alongside the more dramatic accusations being flung back and forth about the legality of the migrant flights, the more prosaic issue of budgeting has also received attention. 

The flights were funded from a $12 million item in the Florida budget that was passed overwhelmingly by state legislators earlier this year. 

But that measure, and how it’s been interpreted, is the subject of new debate. 

Firstly, as Politico and other outlets have noted, the budget legislation required that the money be used with respect to transporting “unauthorized aliens from this state.” 

Democrats and migrant advocates return to the point that the migrants’ journey originated in Texas, not Florida.  

They further add that people from outside the U.S. have a legal right to claim asylum and to have those claims adjudicated. In other words, they are not unauthorized aliens. 

Republicans and others with a more hard-line view of immigration argue that there is no problem with the language since the migrants presented themselves at the U.S. border without the required documents to enter the country.

Separately, there is controversy around the origins of the money.  

Democrats say it clearly came from the interest earned by the state on COVID-19 stimulus payments from the federal government. A Washington Post report last week said that DeSantis’s office “did not respond to multiple questions about the source of the funds or whether the $12 million in covid aid had been used for the flights to Martha’s Vineyard.” 

At a recent news conference, DeSantis proclaimed, “I’ve got 12 million to use and so we are going to use it.” His intention appears to be to continue with the migrant flights until the money is exhausted. 

The migrants who have filed the class action suit assert that this amounts to the use of COVID-19 relief funds for “unauthorized purposes.” 

Others, who do not go that far, have said the episode shows a loophole in the provision of those funds that other states might exploit. 

Meanwhile, some Democrats in Florida are pressing the issue. 

State Sen. Annette Taddeo (D), currently running for Congress in the state’s 27th District, said she asked questions about the money from the outset. In particular, she unsuccessfully sought a carve-out that would have prohibited the money from being used to move people out of Florida who were seeking asylum from left-wing groups or regimes in other nations. 

Taddeo fled her native Colombia at the age of 17 after her father was kidnapped by left-wing FARC guerrillas.  

Cuban Americans, many of whom fled Fidel Castro’s regime or have forebears who did so, are a famously potent constituency in South Florida. 

Referring to DeSantis’s move — and the widespread speculation that he is eying a 2024 presidential bid — Taddeo told The Hill, “This may be popular for a national presidential primary, but not in Miami.” 

Figures such as DeSantis, she contended, “are wanting the votes, but when it comes time to welcome the people who are fleeing communist and murderous regimes, they are just treating them like political pawns. That is completely unacceptable.” 

Source: TEST FEED1

White House sees opportunity in GOP ‘fumble’ on abortion

The tension among Republicans about how to message on abortion is handing over an opportunity for the White House and Democrats to pounce on the GOP over an issue they see as an advantage in the November midterms.

President Biden has sought to seize on the opportunity, showing that Democrats are the party of common sense when it comes to reproductive health care policy.

Since Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) proposed legislation that would impose a nationwide ban on abortions performed after 15 weeks, the GOP’s disputes over whether that power lies with the states or the federal government has been brought to the forefront. 

That could help Biden appeal to more voters — and Democrats who once complained that the White House isn’t doing enough say it is finally taking advantage of a moment. 

“For once, I think they’re actually doing it,” said Democratic strategist Christy Setzer, pointing to swing-state Democrats who are pouring an extensive amount of money into paid media, including contrast ads. 

“On [Capitol] Hill, they’re not taking the bait on legislation like Lindsey Graham’s 15 week ban. They’re calling it out as a nationwide ban, which it is, rather than focusing on the policy details,” she said.

Graham this week created new headaches for Republicans when he appeared to make an about-face by arguing that abortion is not a states’ rights issue and acknowledged that his bill to ban abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy goes against the typical Republican thinking. 

“If the Republicans wanted to pick a policy that would cleave off important parts of their constituency, that’s the one. Yet they went ahead and did it,” said former Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.), a Biden ally.

“It was a huge fumble for Republicans,” said one strategist. “And I’m happy we’ve been able to capitalize on their mistakes.” 

GOP strategist Doug Heye said that Republicans shouldn’t be making abortion an even more prominent topic this midterm cycle and should instead focus on issues like inflation, crime and the border to appeal to voters.

“The issue wasn’t going to go away. This just is another example of bringing it more prominence and it causes Republicans to focus on a topic that most of them don’t want to and allows Democrats to not focus on those issues that they don’t want to focus on,” he said.

Democrats were ahead of Republicans by 22 points in a recent poll that asked voters which party better handles abortion issues. 

That advantage is huge for Democrats, but they remain consistently behind Republicans on issues like the economy and immigration policy.

“For once, Democrats seem to understand that the public is not only with us on this issue, they’re even more allergic to abortion bans than they were pre-Dobbs,” Setzer said. “Women who have miscarried, who use IVF, who understand they can get raped, who even just want access to Plan B, now understand they are all targeted by GOP abortion bans.”

White House officials held a meeting this week on reproductive rights and focused on the efforts in state legislatures to protect reproductive health care, while Republicans in some states have worked to pass extreme anti-abortion measures. 

Jennifer Klein, the director of the White House Gender Policy Council, and Julie Chavez Rodriguez, a senior adviser, brought together state officials from California, Colorado, Maryland, New Mexico and elsewhere who have enacted bills to protect and expand access to the procedure.

Democrats from progressives to moderates appeared on the same page with their messaging on abortion even before Republicans were in the position they have recently found themselves, thanks in part to Graham’s bill, which the South Carolina Republican acknowledges does not have the votes to pass.

Democrats have doubled down on making abortion a top issue going into the midterms. The party has spent roughly $124 million on ads centered on abortion, which is more than twice what the party has spent on other issues.

“It is probably fair to say that Democrats have picked up a lot of ground in the midterms because of the Dobbs decision. And when it comes to messaging on the issue, the White House and Congress have been fairly united … in this case they have not behaved like Democrats,” said Carney, a senior policy adviser at Nossaman LLP.

When Roe v. Wade was officially overturned by the Supreme Court in June, Democrats saw it as another major issue that the White House was too slow to respond to, especially considering a draft opinion of the decision had been leaked a month earlier.

But just after Graham’s bill was officially introduced in the Senate, the White House issued a statement calling it “wildly out of step,” showing that it had worked to stay in step with the timing of Graham’s proposal.

Some Democrats, however, see the administration as having a long way to go before it catches up to how far it has fallen behind this year, especially when it comes to messaging and responding to multiple crises. 

“It was an embarrassment,” said one Democratic strategist. “A complete and utter failure on our party’s part. They’re just now beginning to redeem themselves.”  

“If Republicans can tap into the culture wars, so should we. We should play ugly,” said one Democratic strategist. “We should remind everyone every single day that what they’re doing is disgusting and vile. We should remind everyone that they’re not elevating women, they’re sending us back to the dark ages.” 

When Graham dropped his bill last week, political watchers called it a lifeline for Democrats after data released earlier that day showed inflation continued going up in August.

And bad news for Republicans continued into this week with Graham’s apparent reversal in saying that abortion shouldn’t be a state issue, which is in opposition to others in his party like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) who has since reiterated that abortion decisions should be left to the states.

Carney argued that one of the issues for Republicans is that abortion was a more effective political tool and talking point before Roe v. Wade was actually overturned this summer.

“Republicans raised a lot of money around overturning Roe, and gained a lot of support from their conservative base on that issue,” he said. “But now what? They are the dog that caught the car, what are they going to do now?”

Source: TEST FEED1

Manchin’s permitting reform deal on life support in face of GOP opposition

The controversial permitting reform bill unveiled by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) late Wednesday has only a slim chance of passing the Senate next week as Republicans don’t want to give the West Virginia senator a victory after he resurrected President Biden’s tax and climate agenda in late July.  

Republican senators, who had been shut out of negotiations over the permitting bill’s language, said Wednesday they don’t expect it to pass if attached to a short-term government funding bill that Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) plans to bring to the floor next week.  

GOP senators didn’t get a chance to look at the bill until 6 p.m. Wednesday but predicted earlier in the day that if it fell short of a stronger permitting reform proposal offered by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), they wouldn’t vote for it.  

Capito and Barrasso said Wednesday evening their staffs were reviewing the 91-page bill and said they would hold off on making final verdicts until they know more about it. 

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) outlined multiple problems with the draft of Manchin’s bill that circulated earlier this summer during a presentation he delivered to a Senate Republican lunch Wednesday.  

His message to GOP senators was clear: Unless Manchin fixed multiple provisions that were problems for the fossil fuel industry, Republicans shouldn’t support it.  

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), an advisor to the Senate GOP leadership, said he couldn’t see a government funding measure pass next week with Manchin’s permitting reform attached.  

“I don’t know what Sen. Schumer’s plans are, whether he’s going to attach it to the CR. I doubt it’s going to pass,” Cornyn said.  

Capito, who has a competing permitting reform bill, said Wednesday afternoon that Manchin hasn’t shared any of the details of his legislation before it was made available to the media and general public.  

Republicans say they don’t want to reward Manchin by passing his permitting reform bill resolution because Schumer is bringing it to the floor as part of a deal he struck with the West Virginia senator in July to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, which implemented a 15 percent corporate minimum tax and included $369 billion in energy investments to combat climate change.  

“It’s going to be extremely difficult to do just because of the circumstances surrounding the deal that was made,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.). 

Rounds said he would take a close look at Manchin’s proposal if he’s willing to shift it substantially closer to the reforms that Capito has proposed but predicted that’s not likely to happen.  

“I’m not sure he’d have the support of Democrats then. I think that it’s going to be a very difficult deal to get done,” Rounds added.  

Even Democrats who support Manchin’s permitting reform bill say they won’t support it if it is rewritten to mirror Capito’s proposal as part of an effort to secure more Republican votes.  

Manchin will need more than 10 Republicans to pass his permitting reform bill as several Democrats and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have signaled opposition to marrying the Manchin permitting reform language with a short-term spending bill.

Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) is circulating a letter with the support of Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Sanders urging Schumer to keep separate permitting reform and a short-term government funding bill which needs to pass by the end of next week.  

But Merkley on Wednesday stopped short of threatening to vote against the government funding resolution if it includes permitting reform. He explained that he drafted the letter to draw attention to the concerns of “environmental justice” groups have over Manchin’s bill.  

Sen. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) has also released a statement saying the permitting reform language should not be added to must-pass legislation to keep the government funded.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) issued a statement Wednesday evening declaring his opposition to the Manchin bill because it would approve the construction of a hundred miles of the Mountain Valley Pipeline through his home state and he was not adequately consulted.  

“I cannot support the Mountain Valley Pipeline-related provisions in this legislative text. Over 100 miles of this pipeline are in Virginia, but I was not included in the discussions regarding the MVP provisions and therefore not given an opportunity to share Virginians’ concerns,” he said.  

Schumer was spotted having an intense conversation with Kaine just off the Senate floor shortly after the Virginia senator put out his statement. 

Schumer faces an even bigger problem on the Republican side of the aisle, where opposition to Manchin’s bill has coalesced over the last two weeks.  

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Wednesday praised Capito’s permitting reform bill as a better option than Manchin’s.  

“Very predictably, this background deal is crumbling before our eyes,” McConnell said on the Senate floor, making reference to Schumer’s promise to pass Manchin’s permitting reform bill before the end of September.  

He predicted that Republicans would find Manchin’s bill insufficient to get enough domestic oil, gas and coal projects up and running to reduce the cost of mounting energy bills.  

“Every indication thus far suggests [it] will be weak reform in name only legislation,” he said.  

He promised all 50 Republicans would vote for Capito’s permitting reform bill if it’s included in the short-term funding measure instead of Manchin’s proposal. 

“If our colleague across the aisle wants real permitting reform, Sen. Capito’s fantastic bill only needs Sen. Manchin plus nine more Democrats to clear this chamber,” McConnell said. “Otherwise it would appear the senior senator from West Virginia traded his vote on a massive liberal boondoggle in exchange for nothing,” referring to the Inflation Reduction Act, which passed in August because of Manchin’s support.  

Manchin on Wednesday said he still expects Schumer to include his permitting reform proposal in the continuing resolution, which needs to pass by Sept. 30 to avoid a government shutdown.  

He said Republicans may change their minds about supporting his bill once they review it more closely.  

“When they see it — all sides need it. You can’t build anything in America today. So if you want to have transmission lines … you’re going to have to have it. So we’re hoping common sense kicks in sooner or later,” Manchin told reporters.  

Source: TEST FEED1

Five scenarios that could help Joe Biden  

President Biden is on a roll, hitting his highest point of approval in nearly a year.  

Yet doubts remain about whether he’ll run for reelection in 2024, as even with the boost, more people disapprove of Biden’s job performance than approve of it.  

Over the summer, polls suggested many Democrats wanted someone else to represent their party in the next presidential race, and Biden this week hedged on his plans. 

“Look, my intention as I said to begin with is that I would run again,” Biden said in an interview with “60 Minutes” that aired Sunday. “But it’s just an intention. But is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen.” 

There are reasons to think Biden will run again. Historically, most presidents seek a second term, and he’s repeatedly signaled that’s his intention.  

There are also reasons to think he will change his mind. Biden will turn 80 in November and would be 86 at the completion of a second term. He’s also repeatedly shown political vulnerability over the last year, raising questions about whether it’s time for Democrats to turn the page.  

Much may depend on what happens in the midterms.  

Here are five scenarios that would increase the likelihood of Biden running for a second term. 

Democrats hold the Senate 

Most Republicans and Democrats expect Biden’s party to lose the House.  

Democrats have a tiny majority in the first place, and historically the party of a sitting president generally loses seats in the first midterm after that president’s election.  

But the battle for the Senate is a different story, and there’s a decent chance Democrats could hold their majority there, given a favorable map and retirements that have left Republicans in a tougher spot. 

Former President Trump’s efforts in GOP primaries have also caused GOP consternation, leading to arguably weaker Republican candidates in states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania and Ohio.   

If Democrats hold the Senate or even increase their majority — a distinct possibility if John Fetterman and Mandela Barnes are successful in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — it will leave the party feeling better about its performance in the fall.  

Some of that credit will go to Biden, strengthening him for a White House run.  

On the other hand, if things turn worse for Democrats in the Senate and they lose the majority, it will be a bitter disappointment that could lead Biden to decide it is time to bow out.  

That scenario is also possible — if the GOP can hold on to seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and takes back Georgia, Arizona or Nevada — perhaps the three states where Democrats are the most vulnerable. 

Republicans just narrowly win the House 

The GOP is the heavy favorite to take back the House, but if it doesn’t win in a wave, it would be good news for Biden and Democrats.  

A gain of less than 10 seats would give the lower chamber to the GOP, but if Democrats can keep the losses to a minimum they will at least have something positive to talk about — especially if they hold the Senate.  

A GOP House could also give Biden something to run against, a scenario that certainly helped former President Bill Clinton in 1996 and former President Barack Obama in 2012. 

“The best scenario is to win the Senate and lose the House because it gives Biden something to run on in ‘24,” one Democratic strategist told The Hill.  

“We know what Republicans are going to do. They’re going to light themselves on fire and go after everything from Hunter Biden to Anthony Fauci. And it gives Biden the best kind of foil,” the strategist said.  

A Republican House could also give Biden a chance to go on offense instead of playing defense.  

“The fault disappears from Biden if [House Minority Leader] Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) says no to everything that comes over from the Senate,” the strategist added. “Is any Democrat going to be pissed if they hold both houses? No, of course not. But this gives them a story to tell.”  

McKenzie Wilson, communications director at Data for Progress, a progressive think tank and polling outfit, agreed. “Part of the problem is that an extremist Republican majority is not going to be able to help themselves,” she said. “A lot of policy priorities are very out of step with where voters are.” 

Trump investigations deepen 

Trump is being investigated with new rigor for his involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection on the U.S. Capitol and for alleged improper conduct in his businesses, areas that have the potential to shake up the midterms and post-election landscape. 

Just this week, the former president and his three children were sued by New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) for fraud, the latest in a string of probes that seek to show wrongdoing. And in August, the FBI raided Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida in search of classified materials. 

If Trump is indicted in any of the ongoing investigations, Democrats are expected to pounce on the news, with many looking to Biden to come out strongly against his former opponent. 

“It would give Biden a huge boost, and Dems as well,” one strategist predicted. “Nothing would bring more joy.”

Biden is shown as leading Trump in hypothetical matchups. Without him, there’s a layer of uncertainty to Biden’s chances against an unknown Republican opponent. 

But Biden’s name recognition and incumbent status could also give him a leg up against lesser-known GOP contenders if Trump is out of the mix. 

The president has so far steered clear of commenting directly on his Justice Department and other investigations into Trump, but did give a glimpse into his stance around some of the more hard-line parts of his ideology in a recent speech in Philadelphia intended to show voters what’s at stake for democracy in the upcoming elections.

GOP culture wars backfire 

Fights over the culture wars always heat up at election time. For much of Biden’s term, this has been difficult terrain for Democrats.  

Education and the teaching of “critical race theory,” for example, was an issue in gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey last year that helped GOP candidates.  

More recently, Republican governors like Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis have shipped migrants to blue states in a bid to show what he calls the hypocrisy of liberal cities and states regarding immigration policy.  

Yet there are real signs in this election season that the focus on culture issues is backfiring on Republicans.  

Democrats think the migrant dumps have made DeSantis and other GOP governors look cold and uncaring.  

And the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Roe v. Wade ruling on abortion has shown signs of emerging Democratic voters — particularly women.  

This doesn’t mean DeSantis isn’t helping himself. But it could also benefit Biden and Democrats in the longer term.  

“What might help Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Iowa Caucus is hurting the Republican Party in the 2022 midterms,” Democratic campaign veteran Josh Schwerin mused.  

Democrats keep everything 

This scenario is the most unlikely: Democrats retain the House and the Senate.  

If that happens, it would be hard not to see it as a major victory for Biden. And it would greatly increase his chances of running for another term.  

The problem with this scenario — at least from the perspective of Democrats — is that it is far-fetched.  

The Cook Political Report rates seven Democratic-held seats in the House as leaning toward Republicans, and another three as likely Republican.  

It rates just three GOP-held seats as likely Democratic.  

If the GOP wins those 10 races where it is favored, it will be enough to win back the majority — even if it loses the three seats where it is an underdog. 

Another 22 Democratic-held seats are seen as toss-ups, while more than two-dozen others held by the party are seen as competitive.  

With such a landscape, it’s hard to see this scenario coming through.  

Source: TEST FEED1

Why Democrats are trying to make midterms a referendum on Trump, GOP

Democrats and the White House are trying to flip the script on the midterms, turning an election that is traditionally a referendum on the party in power into a referendum on the party out of power. 

President Biden and other Democrats have in recent weeks focused squarely on making November a choice election between their party and Republicans they believe hold extreme views on reproductive rights and threaten the pillars of democracy with their refusal to accept election results and willingness to embrace conspiracy theories.

On the latter issues, Democrats are also trying to make the election about former President Trump, whom they blame for the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol that interrupted the congressional certification of the election and forced the evacuation of lawmakers.

Democrats are facing historical trends that the party in power almost always loses seats in the midterms as well as persistent inflation that has given Republicans a major issue to run on. But some strategists see Biden and Democrats as seizing the opportunity to make the elections about something else.

“Midterms are brutal on the party in power,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder of centrist think tank Third Way. “The main reason is they tend to be a referendum on the president, so trying to make it a choice instead of a referendum is smart. 

“Two things are making that possible this time: the Dobbs decision [to end Roe v. Wade] and Trump,” Bennett added. “The GOP is firmly in the thrall of Trump, but he doesn’t care about them at all and is not modifying his behavior to prevent this from becoming a choice election. So this strategy is available and it’s smart.”

Because the midterms are often viewed as a referendum on the party in power, that party tends to lose seats in Congress. The last time the party in the White House gained seats was in 2002, when Republicans rode a wave of support in the aftermath of 9/11 to pick up eight House seats.

Biden and Democrats appeared headed for a wipeout earlier this year as the cost of gas, groceries and other goods soared, due in part to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But gas prices have declined steadily for the last three months, and while inflation remains a top concern for voters, it is has come down from the highs of the spring and early summer.

The president has delivered speeches in recent weeks that frame November’s elections not as a referendum on the economy or his job approval, which sits in the low 40 percent range, but as a choice on whether to support a GOP that poses a threat to democracy.

“MAGA forces are determined to take this country backwards — backwards to an America where there is no right to choose, no right to privacy, no right to contraception, no right to marry who you love,” Biden said in a speech earlier this month in Philadelphia. “They promote authoritarian leaders, and they fan the flames of political violence that are a threat to our personal rights, to the pursuit of justice, to the rule of law, to the very soul of this country.”

Democrats have elevated Republican candidates who still dispute that Biden legitimately won the 2020 election, who have pushed for limits on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy or earlier, and who attack law enforcement over the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol or the FBI’s August search of Trump’s home in Florida.

“History would suggest [Republicans] should easily be favored to regain full control of Congress. But unlike any other midterm in recent memory, this one is more focused on the extreme agenda the party out of power is pushing,” Navin Nayak, president of Center for American Progress Action, wrote in a memo last week on the midterms.

Democrats believe that putting Trump and abortion — two hugely motivating issues for their voters — front and center could help close a turnout gap that typically hampers the party in power in the midterms.

Former White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on MSNBC that making Trump a factor is beneficial for Democrats both because of their own dislike of the former president and because he tends to turn off independent voters.

“The more he engages himself in the race, the more he puts himself out there, the more it’s a reminder of what’s at stake to people,” Psaki said. “Having Trump on the ballot is a hugely energizing factor.”

Some political consultants remain skeptical that the strategy will be enough to overcome historical trends, the focus on inflation and newly drawn congressional districts that give Republican clear opportunities to take back the House majority.

“I think it’s a losing strategy electorally. It’s a winning strategy from a small-donor argument,” said John Thomas, a Republican strategist, arguing that the abortion debate and Trump’s return to center stage in the news cycle have been a boon to fundraising that could keep some candidates from becoming vulnerable.

Trump, the former president who has been at the center of Democratic attempts to frame the midterms around Republicans, was asked during an interview last week whether the elections would be about him and the many investigations into his conduct or about the economy and crime.

“Well, I think that we’re going to have a very big victory based on the economy. I think it’s about the economy,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. “It’s about the horrible inflation. It’s cutting people’s lifestyle. It’s cutting people’s — it’s ruining people’s lives, what’s happening.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Hard-line candidates could put governor’s races at risk for GOP

Pro-Trump candidates running for governor in critical battleground states are confronting a familiar problem shared by their House and Senate counterparts, as they risk alienating voters with some of their hard-line views.

In states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Michigan, Republican gubernatorial candidates have tacked to the right on issues ranging from abortion to the 2020 election, while making no secret about embracing former President Trump.

But those hard-right stances threaten to cost them in November, when they might need more moderate swing voters to pull them over the finish line.

“When you have candidates who essentially aren’t helping themselves by staking out either extreme positions or extreme positions on weird issues that only speak to a real core Trump part of the base, it’s not a surprise that there are going to be struggles,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye.

Arizona’s Kari Lake and Pennsylvania’s Doug Mastriano are among the high-profile Republican gubernatorial candidates who have drawn scrutiny for their backing of Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election. Their abortion stances have also raised concerns, especially in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade — a decision that has galvanized pro-abortion rights voters.

Another Republican who has drawn fresh scrutiny over her abortion views is Tudor Dixon, who’s running against Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in November. In an interview with Fox 2 Detroit last month, Dixon said she only backed abortion exceptions if the life of the mother is jeopardized. She has also suggested that rape victims could experience “healing” through having a forced birth. When contacted, a spokesperson for Dixon’s campaign referred The Hill to the candidate’s past remarks on the 2020 election and abortion, adding, “If you ever want to talk about critical issues facing Michiganders we’d be happy to have a conversation.”

Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon appears at a primary election party in Grand Rapids, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Meanwhile, in the Maryland gubernatorial race, GOP candidate Dan Cox criticized the Mar-a-Lago search conducted by the FBI and said in a fundraising email that if he were elected governor, he would “use the 9th and 10th Amendments, the Maryland Constitution and Declaration of Rights, the [Maryland State Police] and Maryland Guard to stand against all rogue actions of this out of control tyrannical Biden administration with fierce tenacity,” according to The Washington Post. Cox, speaking to The Hill, said he wasn’t concerned that the fundraising email’s messaging could turn off voters.

Still, some in the party are questioning the candidates’ viability come November, when they’ll go before a broader swath of the public.

“People are looking for good judgment and good sense and good decisionmaking out of governors,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres said, adding later, “Anything that casts doubt on the judgment or the common sense of a gubernatorial candidate undermines that candidate’s potential to get elected governor.”

Ayres suggested that far-right stances on abortion in particular could be a liability for candidates in the general election.

“Any candidate who is adopting an abortion ban that does not include exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother is standing well outside the mainstream of virtually every state,” he said. “A position on abortion that is well outside the mainstream of most voters’ thinking is going to be a liability in a general election campaign.”

Mastriano is among the candidates who has taken a hard-line position on abortion in the past, proposing a ban on the procedure after six weeks.

One Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, said that positions on issues like the 2020 election had the potential to factor more heavily in gubernatorial races than in other races.  

“I do think in a gubernatorial race, there’s a little greater vulnerability on those issues, just because you’re almost looking for somebody that’s more of a local partner with you rather than a representative … that you’re sending abroad,” the strategist said, noting the difference between how voters view Senate and gubernatorial races. 

Another Republican operative cast doubt on the idea that these hard-line stances would matter in the gubernatorial contests, arguing the bigger factor was a lack of ad spending on behalf of some of these candidates.

The stakes for gubernatorial races are high. As chief executives, governors determine the political priorities in their state, have veto power in considering legislation and, in some states like Pennsylvania, appoint the secretary of state to oversee elections. 

A number of the races appear tight heading into November. An Emerson College Polling survey out of Arizona released earlier this month showed both Lake and her Democratic opponent, Katie Hobbs, receiving 46 percent support from very likely general election voters in the state, falling within the poll’s margin of error. 

Billy Grant, chief strategist for Lake’s campaign, said the campaign wasn’t concerned that her views of the 2020 election could impact her chances of getting elected, adding it wasn’t an issue that came up among reporters and in Democratic messaging.

Grant said that “since the primary she’s been very disciplined, she still gives her opinion but she also is talking about her opponent who’s not willing to debate her, and people have kind of moved on to the general election and kind of that dynamic.”

In other races, Republican candidates appear to be struggling to make headway against their Democratic opponents. In Maryland, where Cox defeated primary rival Kelly Schultz, who was backed by current Gov. Larry Hogan (R), polls show Democratic candidate Wes Moore with a substantial lead. A survey from Goucher College, The Baltimore Banner and WYPR released this week showed Cox receiving 31 percent support compared to 53 percent support for Moore. 

Dan Cox, a candidate for the Maryland Republican gubernatorial nomination, speaks during the gubernatorial forum, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022, in Ocean City, Md. (AP Photo/Todd Dudek)

“If it was Kelly Schultz, who isn’t running on some of these more kind of bizarre Trump-like issues, it’s a very real race. And instead, this is a slam dunk for Wes Moore,” Heye, the GOP strategist, said.

The Democratic Governors Association, which has aired ads targeting candidates in states like Illinois and Maryland, are betting that some of those controversial stances will turn off voters. Their political director, Marshall Cohen, said “it’s a kind of widespread issue among Republicans running for governor who take these extreme positions that are out of touch with mainstream voters.”

But Joanna Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the Republican Governors Association, argued that voters care more about kitchen table issues. 

“The moderate and independent voters needed to build winning coalitions in competitive gubernatorial races are worried about the economy, crime, border crisis, and education,” Rodriguez said.

“And those are exactly the issues Republican candidates are traveling their states talking to voters about,” she added. “Any insinuation otherwise is just a desperate attempt to distract voters from Democrats’ complete record of failure and lack of solutions to these top concerns.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Lawyer says Ginni Thomas agrees to interview with Jan. 6 committee

Virginia “Ginni” Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, has agreed to interview with the Jan. 6 Committee, her lawyer told The Hill on Wednesday night.

“As she has said from the outset, Mrs. Thomas is eager to answer the Committee’s questions to clear up any misconceptions about her work relating to the 2020 election,” Thomas’ lawyer Mark Paoletta said in a statement, reported first by CNN. “She looks forward to that opportunity.”

The committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol asked Thomas to speak with the panel in June. 

Thomas has faced increased scrutiny over her potential role in the lead up to the Jan. 6 riot, after it was revealed that she communicated with former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Trump attorney John Eastman about contesting election results and pressured lawmakers in both Wisconsin and Arizona to overturn the results in their states.

Thomas initially seemed eager to appear before the committee, saying she couldn’t wait to “clear up misconceptions.” However, her attorney later said he didn’t see a need for her to testify and asked for “better justification.”

Vice Chair Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) threatened to subpoena Thomas in July if she chose not to appear before the committee voluntarily.

Source: TEST FEED1

Appeals court allows DOJ to resume review of classified records in Trump case

A three-judge appeals court on Wednesday granted the Department of Justice’s request to continue its review of classified documents seized in an FBI search as part of an investigation of former President Trump’s potential mishandling of the information.

The judges also allowed a review by a special master appointed by a Florida judge to continue simultaneously. 

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon had temporarily barred Justice Department investigators from using the documents in an investigation that is weighing whether to bring criminal charges against the former president that involve possible violations of the Espionage Act as well as other federal statues. 

A special master, requested by Trump’s team, is also reviewing the documents.

DEVELOPING

Source: TEST FEED1