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How Biden helped avert a rail strike – and another economic crisis

The White House came close this week to facing yet another crisis, this time over a railroad dispute that could have taken a crowbar to the U.S. economy ahead of crucial midterm elections.

But in the end, a tentative deal was struck with both sides crediting the Biden administration with stepping in to help avert a strike that was set to begin on Friday and one that could have further disrupted the nation’s fragile supply chain.

Administration officials became involved in the talks weeks ago, lobbying both sides around the clock to argue the stakes were too high for a strike. 

“It’s a big political risk. If it all blew up, the administration was going to be left holding the bag,” an industry source familiar with the talks said.

Biden called into negotiations around 9 p.m. last night to say a shutdown of railways was unacceptable, according to a White House official. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh led 20 hours of talks in the final stretch while Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg worked the phones. 

Walsh called the White House at 2 a.m. on Thursday morning to say there appeared to be a deal, the official said. Biden wasn’t on that call but put out a statement announcing the deal around 5 a.m. 

A source familiar said Biden’s Wednesday night call was “crucial” for the deal. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Thursday said Biden’s message was for negotiators to recognize the harm a  strike and subsequent railway shutdown would have, asking they be creative, flexible, and meet others halfway.

Both sides had until 12:01 a.m. on Friday to broker a deal to avoid a strike, which would have brought the transport of grain, fuel, lumber, car parts and other key products to a halt. Unions now have to approve the deal.

Congress had the power to block a strike but lawmakers were divided up until Wednesday on whether to intervene. Democrats blocked a GOP resolution that would have swiftly put an end to the strike by imposing the White House-appointed board’s contract, which called for 24 percent raises over five years and back pay. 

But taking a vote on the GOP resolution could have put divisions on the Democratic side on display over how to handle the situation and, with the midterm elections looming, potentially hurt Democrats at a critical juncture. 

Action by Congress instead of the White House could have also hurt Biden, who regularly lauds support from labor unions as being imperative to his decades-long political career.

“Biden owns this space. Most labor friendly president ever. If Congress stepped in and dealt a perceived blow to labor on his watch, that would have been a problem going into the midterm,” a Democratic operative said.

SMART Transportation Division, one of the two largest railroad unions, said its members requested Congress not be a part of the deal-making.

“Congressional leaders…listened to your requests and stayed out of our dispute, allowing for an agreement to be reached across the bargaining table, rather than through legislation,” the union said in a statement.

The same sentiment was shared by the White House.

“Even up until the very end, the Biden administration was really reluctant to bring Congress into it,” the industry source said.

Another industry source conveyed Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) optimism that Biden would handle the situation, adding that Pelosi “did not think that Congress was going to touch this.”

Rodell Mollineau, a Democratic strategist who served as an aide to the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), said the tentative deal “also saved the political momentum” the president has right now. 

Mollineau said media attention on higher consumer prices, which has plagued the White House for much of this year “would have zapped that momentum.”

“It would have restoked the economic anxiety that some Americans are feeling,” he said, adding that not only does averting a strike benefit Americans, “It’s a good thing for Democrats going into the midterms.”

Another Democratic strategist agreed with Mollineau. 

“This would have been a shitstorm because it’s at the intersection of so many things that are vital to this country,” the strategist said. “It would have looked so bad for Biden and even his reputation as Amtrak Joe.”

“The longer it would have been out there, the worse it would be for Democrats,” the strategist added. 

Biden had personally called CEOs and leadership of the rail unions multiple times up until the deal was reached and on Thursday, he hosted the negotiators who brokered the agreement at the White House.

The group included union leaders, including from SMART, the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET), and AFL-CIO. It also included industry leaders from the Association of American Railroads, the trade group that represents railroad companies.

Aside from Biden, Walsh and Buttigieg and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack were the most involved administration officials working on reaching an agreement.

Buttigieg also hit the road with Biden, joining him in Detroit on Wednesday for the Auto Show while juggling negotiation talks.

“At the car show with the president yesterday, anytime there wasn’t a public thing he was doing or meeting with people, the secretary was in the hallway or in some room making calls to companies,” an administration source said.

When press reports started emerging this week that the U.S. could be heading towards the first rail strike in 30 years, the administration had already been engaged in quiet conversations.

It was around Labor Day weekend when officials started ramping up their involvement, with Buttigieg and Vilsack mostly focusing on conversations with railroad companies and Walsh on conversations with unions, according to the administration source. 

As they were trying to get both parties to agree to an extension of the cooling off period, Walsh and Buttigieg “were on the phone like 24/7 trying to get that deal done,” another source familiar said.

The tentative deal struck early Thursday includes providing workers with voluntarily assigned days off and one additional paid day off, increases to health care copays and deductibles, protections for two-person crews, and 24 percent raises over five years.

Mollineau also emphasized the significance of the deal for the U.S. economy.

“Two things: One this White House, through their leadership, averted this crisis. And  two they will get no credit for averting this crisis,” he said. “I don’t think the American people understand how close to a supply chain crisis would have happened here.”

An industry source said that there was “a fair amount of heartburn” in Washington when the deal wasn’t getting done.

“The administration deserves credit for wrestling this to the ground ultimately,” the source said.

Source: TEST FEED1

House passes bill seeking to protect federal civil service employees from Trump

The House on Thursday passed a bill that seeks to protect federal civil service employees from “Schedule F,” an executive order former President Trump signed that would make it easier for the White House to replace federal workers with loyalists.

The legislation, titled the Preventing a Patronage System Act, passed in a 225-204 vote. Six Republicans joined all voting Democrats in supporting the measure.

A group of Democratic senators introduced a bill in the upper chamber under the same name. The legislation would need to win the backing of at least 10 GOP senators to get past a Senate filibuster.

Trump in October 2020 — roughly two weeks before the election — signed an executive order creating Schedule F in the excepted service, making it easier for him to hire and fire civil servants that work on policy.

Excepted service positions are not required to abide by rules and regulations laid out by the competitive service. Thousands of civil servants would be moved to Schedule F should it be imposed, according to Axios.

Trump’s executive order drew headlines for concerns that the new measure could make it easier to hire employees who do not have adequate experience to serve in the position they are put up for.

President Biden rescinded the executive order in January 2021, but it gained reviewed focus in recent weeks after Axios published an extensive report detailing Trump’s plans to reimpose Schedule F should he be elected president in 2024.

Trump is widely expected to run for the GOP nomination for president, and would be considered the frontrunner.

The legislation passed by the House on Thursday, however, would prevent federal government positions in the competitive service from being moved outside the merit system principles without consent from Congress.

“We rely on their experience and expertise to provide every basic government service—from delivering the mail to helping families in the wake of natural disasters,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), the chairman of the House Oversight and Reform Committee and a sponsor of the bill, said in a statement on Thursday, after the bill passed.

“The former President’s attempt to remove qualified experts and replace them with political loyalists threatened our national security and our government’s ability to function the way the American people expect it to. Expertise, not fealty must define our civil service,” he added.

Additionally, the bill would curb the regrouping of federal employees to the five excepted schedules that are currently established, and prevent federal employees from being reclassified to Schedule F in accordance with Trump’s executive order.

Source: TEST FEED1

Senate won't vote on same-sex marriage bill until after election

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (Wis.), the lead Democratic negotiator on the Respect for Marriage Act, which passed the House overwhelmingly in July, announced Thursday that the Senate will postpone action on the bill until after the midterm elections.  

“After the election,” she said, when asked about when the bill will come to the floor.  

Baldwin had said earlier this week that she wanted the legislation to come to the floor next week, even though it wasn’t assured that it would have enough votes to overcome an expected GOP filibuster.  

Baldwin’s announcement came shortly after retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), a key vote, said the bill would be much more likely to get 10 Republican votes to overcome a filibuster if it were considered after Election Day.

“If I wanted to pass that and I was the majority leader and I wanted to get as many votes as I could possibly get, I’d wait until after the election to have the vote,” Blunt told reporters.  

A bipartisan group of negotiators met Thursday morning to make a decision on whether to release the text of an amendment designed to respond to the concerns of GOP lawmakers who feared the legislation could put churches and other religious institutions at legal risk if Congress voted to codify same-sex marriage rights.  

The legislation passed by the House would repeal the Defense of Marriage Act, which defines marriage as the union of one man and one woman, and would require states to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states. 

The Supreme Court defended the right to same-sex marriage in its landmark 2015 decision Obergefell v. Hodges, which ruled that the 14th Amendment protected the right of same-sex couples to marry.  

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas urged the court to review that decision and others relying on the concept of substantive due process under the 14th Amendment in his concurrence to Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion rights case, earlier this year. 

The House passed the Respect for Marriage Act overwhelmingly by a vote of 267 to 157, with 47 Republicans voting “yes.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Five things to know about the railroad deal

The Biden administration narrowly avoided an infrastructure calamity on Thursday by brokering a tentative contract agreement between railroads and their workers, keeping the nation’s rail system intact. 

The breakthrough comes after years of contentious negotiations and just before nearly 125,000 rail workers were set to strike as soon as Friday. Workers will now vote on whether to ratify the contract.

Here are five things to know about the railroad deal:

Unions secured hard-fought concessions 

The agreement aims to address rail workers’ concerns about unsafe working conditions and obstacles to taking time off, the two largest railroad unions said Thursday. 

The contract would allow workers to take time off for doctors’ appointments or other scheduled events without being penalized under railroads’ attendance policies, a key sticking point in negotiations. Workers complained that they often face roadblocks to taking even unpaid time off for any reason.

It would mandate two-person crews, another win for workers who warned about dangerous consequences of forcing workers to operate trains solo.

The deal also places new caps on workers’ health care costs, unions said.

“We listened when our members told us that a final agreement would require improvements to their quality of life as well as economic gains,” the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the SMART Transportation Division said in a statement. 

Workers would receive 24 percent raises over five years, back pay and cash bonuses. Those terms are largely unchanged from recommendations released by a White House-appointed board last month. 

The contract dispute isn’t over yet 

Rail workers will soon vote on the tentative deal, and if any of the unions reject it, the nation will once again brace for a railroad strike.

Workers had largely opposed the presidential board’s contract recommendations, which ignored their demands for better quality of life and working conditions. 

A recent survey from the SMART Transportation Division found that 78 percent of the union’s railroad workers would have rejected that contract. Another survey from grassroots group Railroad Workers United found that 9 in 10 railroad workers opposed it. 

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers said Wednesday that its 4,900 railway workers voted to reject the Biden administration-appointed board’s contract. It delayed a strike until Sept. 29 to allow more time for negotiations.

It’s unclear whether the revamped contract announced Thursday does enough to win over workers, who eagerly awaited the specific terms of the deal. 

A strike would devastate the US economy

A walkout would shut down the nation’s rail network, which carries nearly one-third of all cargo shipments, bringing large sections of the U.S. economy to a halt. 

Huge amounts of food, clean water, fertilizer, fuel, lumber, packaged goods, finished cars and other products would not make it to their destinations, limiting supply and driving up prices.

A shutdown would also ravage supply chains as containers piled up at ports.

It would cost the economy $2 billion per day, according to estimates from the Association of American Railroads. Another estimate from the Michigan-based Anderson Economic Group found that it would cost consumers far less: $60 million on the first day and $90 million on the second. 

Some railroads began to limit the transport of perishable food and fertilizer this week in anticipation of a strike, rattling the U.S. agricultural sector, which called on lawmakers to resolve the strike threat as soon as possible. 

Commuter rail systems, which rely on freight rail lines, were also preparing for widespread service disruptions.

In response to Thursday’s deal, Amtrak said Thursday that it would restore long-distance lines that it suspended this week. 

The Biden administration intervened in last-ditch effort

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh joined union and railroad negotiators for more than 20 straight hours to help spearhead a compromise, while President Biden also personally weighed in on talks. 

Biden wanted to avoid massive economic disruptions just before November’s midterms and the holiday shopping season. For weeks, the White House urged both parties to compromise for the sake of the nation’s economy, which is still struggling with red-hot inflation. 

“This is a great deal for both sides, in my opinion,” Biden said Thursday. 

Congress no longer needs to act, for now

Congress this week was preparing to step in and use their authority to block the strike, but lawmakers were divided on how to intervene. 

GOP senators on Wednesday pushed for a bill to force unions to accept the terms outlined by the presidential board, but Democrats blocked the resolution, arguing that negotiators should be given up until Friday’s deadline to reach a deal.  

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Thursday that Democrats on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee were ready with legislation to prevent a railroad shutdown if negotiations collapsed. 

“Thankfully this action may not be necessary,” Pelosi said in a statement. 

If workers in any of the rail unions vote to reject the tentative agreement, the issue could come back before Congress. 

Source: TEST FEED1

Here’s what’s in the White House-brokered deal that averted railway strike

Railroads and unions reached a tentative contract agreement Thursday morning, averting the threat of an imminent strike that would have ravaged the nation’s economy. 

The Biden administration intervened in negotiations to push both parties toward a compromise ahead of Friday, the first day that workers could legally walk out. 

The two largest rail unions said Thursday that the deal provides wins for workers that weren’t included in the previous contract proposals.

Here are five major gets in the agreement, according to the unions.

Time off for medical appointments

In the agreement, workers would be allowed to take time off for medical appointments without being penalized. This was a key sticking point that held up negotiations.

Leading rail unions warned that their members would not ratify an agreement that didn’t address sick time. 

More time off

Workers were provided voluntarily assigned days off and given one additional paid day off. Rail workers have complained about widespread fatigue and attendance policies that complicate their ability to take time off for any reason.

Block health care hikes

The agreement blocks increases to health care copays and deductibles, a big get for workers. Unions said that the measure took 20 hours of negotiation to secure.

Two-person crews

The deal protects two-person crews for the indefinite future, another top priority for workers who said that they faced increased safety risks by being forced to operate trains solo.

Pay raises

Workers will receive 24 percent raises over five years, back pay and cash bonuses. These terms were similar to those recommended by a White House-appointed board on the matter last month.

The deal will now go to union members for a vote. Workers had pledged to vote down a contract based on the presidential board’s guidance because it didn’t address their concerns about unsafe working conditions and insufficient sick leave. 

“We listened when our members told us that a final agreement would require improvements to their quality of life as well as economic gains,” the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the SMART Transportation Division, which together represent nearly 60,000 rail workers, said in a statement.

GOP senators on Wednesday attempted to pass a resolution that would have enacted the board’s terms, but Democrats blocked it, arguing that the parties should have time to negotiate a deal.

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump says he 'can't imagine' being indicted, argues it wouldn't deter running again

Former President Trump on Thursday said he “can’t imagine being indicted” over his handling of classified documents or a scheme to put forward alternate electors after the 2020 election, but that if he were, it would not deter him from a possible White House run in 2024.

“I can’t imagine being indicted. I’ve done nothing wrong,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.

“I don’t think the people of the United States would stand for it,” Trump added. “And as you know, if a thing like that happened, I would have no prohibition against running. You know that.”

Trump in the interview claimed he had no involvement in a plot to put forward alternate electors in Georgia that would have tipped the state for him despite President Biden winning by thousands of votes, though he insisted the concept was “very common.”

Georgia prosecutors have been investigating the scheme and interviewing Trump associates like Rudy Giuliani in the matter.

The former president also repeatedly denied any wrongdoing in his handling of classified documents after the FBI searched his Mar-a-Lago estate last month. The agency conducted the search months after it found dozens of classified documents at the residence and unsuccessfully tried to get the materials back from Trump.

Trump reasserted his claim that he had declassified all of the documents he kept at his home more than a year after leaving the White House, though experts have disputed he could do so without going through a more formal process and Trump’s legal team has not argued in court that he declassified the materials.

“There is no reason that they can [indict], other than if they’re just sick and deranged, which is always possible, because I did absolutely … nothing wrong,” Trump said Thursday.

The former president repeatedly said he does not believe the American public will accept him being indicted, warning there would be “problems” if he were.

Hewitt, noting some would interpret his comments as inciting violence, asked what kind of problems he was referring to, though Trump did not specify.

“That’s not inciting, I’m just saying what my opinion is,” Trump said. “I don’t think the people of this country would stand for it.”

Source: TEST FEED1

DeSantis sends migrants to Martha’s Vineyard

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) flew two planes of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, Mass., on Wednesday, intensifying a fight in which high-profile GOP governors have been sending migrants to liberal enclaves.

A spokesperson for DeSantis, considered a possible GOP presidential candidate in 2024, confirmed to Fox News on Wednesday that the migrants were flown on two chartered planes. 

“Yes, Florida can confirm the two planes with illegal immigrants that arrived in Martha’s Vineyard today were part of the state’s relocation program to transport illegal immigrants to sanctuary destinations,” DeSantis spokesperson Taryn Fenske told the media outlet. 

DeSantis has been sending migrants to “sanctuary” cities or states that limit their cooperation with federal immigration authorities.

About 50 Venezuelan migrants, including some children, reportedly were flown to Martha’s Vineyard, according to the Martha’s Vineyard Times.  

The island, just south of Cape Cod, is a popular summer vacation area frequented by a number of Democratic power players, including former President Obama.

Fenske told Fox News that states like Massachusetts, New York and California are better suited to take care of the migrants because of their more lax immigration policies, noting their support for what he described as the Biden administration’s open border policies. 

“As you may know, in this past legislative session the Florida legislature appropriated $12 million to implement a program to facilitate the transport of illegal immigrants from this state consistent with federal law,” Fenske told Fox News. 

Massachusetts state Sen. Julian Cyr (D) said the flights came to the island via Texas. Local emergency management services have called the situation “an unexpected urgent humanitarian situation.”   

Massachusetts state Rep. Dylan Fernandes (D) said that many of the migrants don’t know where they are. 

“They say they were told they would be given housing and jobs. Islanders [were] given no notice but are coming together as a community to support them,” Fernandes wrote on Twitter Wednesday.

“Republicans who call themselves Christians have been plotting for some time to use human lives — men, women, and children — as a political pawns. It is evil and inhumane,” Fernandes added. 

In a statement to Fox News, a spokesperson for Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) said that they are aware of the situation and have provided Martha’s Vineyard officials with short-term shelter services as well. 

DeSantis and fellow GOP Govs. Greg Abbott of Texas and Doug Ducey of Arizona have been sending migrants to northern, Democratic-run cities in protest of Biden’s efforts to end Title 42, a Trump-era policy that blocked migrants from seeking asylum over pandemic concerns.

DeSantis had last year proposed a program to transport migrants out of Florida by contracting with private companies and named Martha’s Vineyard as a potential destination, according to the Tampa Bay Times. 

Source: TEST FEED1

The Hill's Morning Report — Tentative deal reached averting rail strike that threatened to snarl economy

The White House and federal officials, working around-the-clock with railroad unions and railway companies, late Wednesday struck a tentative deal ahead of a Friday deadline to avert a rail strike that threatened massive disruption and price hikes across the United States.

President Biden, a union booster and longtime Amtrak devotee, announced the news in a statement this morning (NBC News). The president had been weighing an emergency decree and Congress had discussed its powers to act if the unions and companies could not agree before the deadline. Biden called in around 9 p.m. Wednesday as 20 hours of talks were underway, according to The New York Times.

The tentative deal affecting more than 100,000 workers must be ratified by the union members, who agreed not to strike in the interim (The Hill). 

Negotiating parties agreed to a “post-ratification cooling off period” of several weeks, to ensure that if a vote fails for any reason, there will not be an immediate rail shutdown, CBS News reported.

“The tentative agreement reached tonight is an important win for our economy and the American people,” the president said, calling it “a win for tens of thousands of rail workers who worked tirelessly through the pandemic.”

“These rail workers will get better pay, improved working conditions, and peace of mind around their health care costs: all hard-earned,” he said. And railway companies will benefit, he added, by being “able to retain and recruit more workers for an industry that will continue to be part of the backbone of the American economy for decades to come.”

A 30-day moratorium that had so far forestalled a strike was set to end Friday for members of the two largest U.S. freight rail unions, the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, or BLET, and SMART Transportation Division.Both had yet to reach deals with rail carriers, which had struck or were close to reaching tentative agreements with the other 10 of the country’s 12 rail unions.

A rail strike could have cost an estimated $2 billion a day and the risk of a shutdown had already disrupted shipments of agricultural products and chemicals, and would have slowed delivery of everything from new cars, coal and oil to consumer goods.

The possibility of a work stoppage forced Amtrak on Wednesday to preemptively cancel long-distance rail services beginning today on tracks owned and maintained by freight rail companies, with exceptions for the Northeast’s commuting corridor between Washington, D.C., and Boston because Amtrak owns those tracks (Bloomberg News).

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, a former union leader heavily involved for weeks in the back-and-forth and all throughout Wednesday’s talks, used Twitter this morning to announce without details that “following more than 20 consecutive hours of negotiations at @USDOL, the rail companies and union negotiators came to a tentative agreement that balances the needs of workers, businesses, and our nation’s economy. The Biden Administration applauds all parties for reaching this hard-fought, mutually beneficial deal. Our rail system is integral to our supply chain, and a disruption would have had catastrophic impacts on industries, travelers and families across the country.”

The Association of American Railroads, in a statement thanking the involvement by Walsh, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, said “new contracts provide rail employees a 24 percent wage increase during the five-year period from 2020 through 2024, including an immediate payout on average of $11,000 upon ratification, following the recommendations of Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) No. 250. All tentative agreements are subject to ratification by the unions’ membership.” 

Unions cited by the association: Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers – Transportation Division, and the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen.

Related Articles

▪ The Associated Press: Biden: Tentative railway deal reached, averting strike. 

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Railroad strike averted as tentative deal is reached.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ CONGRESS

Senate Democrats are pressing for a vote by early next week on a bill to codify same-sex marriage, but Republicans are sending a message as the push intensifies: Not so fast.

A bipartisan group of senators tasked with winning the support of the requisite 10 Republicans is struggling to reach that goal ahead of Monday, when Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) could put the bill on the floor. 

However, the timing of the effort is complicating matters. A number of Republicans remain undecided as they wait for the group of senators to release the religious liberty language in the bill. Adding to the issues, the midterm elections are right around the corner, which complicates everything in the interim. 

“There’s a lot of complex issues that have not been resolved. And we haven’t even seen text. … it does seem that the scheduling has been driven by Sen. Schumer’s political ambitions, rather than an attempt to get an outcome,” Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) said on Wednesday. “I don’t think it’s constructive to have a vote on Monday.”

At the moment, only three Senate Republicans — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Rob Portman (Ohio) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) — officially support codifying same-sex marriage. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has indicated she is supportive, while Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) has retracted his backing for the time being. The proposal passed the House with 47 GOP members voting to advance it, opening the door to a pathway through the upper chamber. 

“I don’t think we have the votes yet,” Portman said. “I don’t want to move ahead unless the votes are there. I’m still talking to people. Others have been more optimistic, but people need some time.”

The Senate is set to be in town through the end of the month. There are two weeks on the calendar when senators are slated to be in town in mid-October, but few expect that to come to fruition to allow incumbents to use the entire month to campaign ahead of the Nov. 8 election (Politico).

▪ Politico: GOP pollster warns party on total abortion bans.

▪ The Hill: House GOP leaders hedge on 15-week abortion ban. 

▪ Axios: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) renegades.

▪ The Hill: Rule changes open door for lawmakers to rely further on ads funded by taxpayers.

Elsewhere in the Senate, some Republicans are indicating they are fed up with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) over the likely attachment of permitting reform language to the stopgap spending bill, which must pass by the end of the month or risk a government shutdown. 

As The Hill’s Aris Folley and Rachel Frazin point out, Republicans have complained for years about the length of time and the arduous process involved in advancing fossil fuel and other energy projects, with Manchin’s efforts likely being the best chance to speed up the environmental review process. However, there is lingering bad blood over Manchin’s deal with Schumer paving the way for the Inflation Reduction Act to be passed via budget reconciliation. 

The GOP’s anger could also cause headaches for the party in power is it is struggling to win Democratic support for the permitting bill, particularly on the left. 

“What they’re celebrating today at the White House is the damage you have already done by passing this reckless bill you voted for,” Sen. John Barrasso (Wyo.), the No. 3 Senate Republican, told reporters this week. “If you’re now looking for Republicans to support and give you more cover than you have right now, you’re not going to find it with us.”

▪ Alexander Bolton, The Hill: McConnell, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) on collision course over spending deal.

▪ The Hill: Senate Republicans demand Schumer bring defense authorization bill to floor.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ POLITICS & INVESTIGATIONS

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) on Wednesday announced he will participate in an Oct. 25 televised debate against Mehmet Oz, his Republican opponent in the Senate race. The debate will take place in Harrisburg and will be hosted by The Hill’s parent company, Nexstar Media Group (The Hill).

Fetterman is still recovering from a May stroke, which affected his speech and “auditory processing.” Oz and his campaign pressured Fetterman, asserting he did not want to debate or answer reporters’ questions at news conferences. The Democratic candidate at the outset said he would debate Oz but had not committed to a date (CNN).

“We said from the start that we’d do a debate, which John reiterated very clearly again last week,” said Rebecca Katz, a senior campaign adviser. “Enough distractions, it’s time to talk about the issues.”

▪ The New York Times: Fetterman says stroke problems have not slowed down a “normal” campaign.

▪ The Washington Post: Fetterman and Oz agree to October debate — with unusual conditions.

▪ The Associated Press: Fetterman, Oz agree to Oct. 25 debate, but feud over terms.

▪ The Philadelphia Inquirer: Fetterman, and Oz (sort of) weigh in on Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) 15-week abortion ban.

Fetterman leads Oz by a wide margin when it comes to key issues such as abortion, gun control and immigration, a Wednesday Monmouth University poll showed. While 44 percent of respondents said they trust Fetterman when it comes to abortion legislation, only 26 percent said the same about Oz. Fetterman leads by 9 points when it comes to “defending values;” by 5 points regarding jobs and the economy, and by 10 points on gun control.

The candidates are tied on only one issue — immigration — where 34 percent of respondents said they trust Fetterman, and 34 percent placed their trust in Oz.

In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is leading by 49 to 48 percent against challenger Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes (D), according to a Marquette University Law School poll, marking a quick turnaround from a month ago. 

According to Marquette’s August poll, Barnes led with 52 percent of likely voters to only 45 percent for the incumbent Republican. The presumed reason for the shift? A barrage of anti-Barnes ads in August, which helped flip independents into Johnson’s column. The latest survey shows Johson leading 48 to 46 percent with voters who identify as independents. Barnes had led with the group 55 to 40 percent (WisPolitics).

▪ Politico: Scott brought a treat to the Senate GOP lunch on Wednesday: polling showing Johnson ahead in his Wisconsin reelection race.

▪ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Johnson, Barnes race a toss-up in Marquette Poll.

▪ The Washington Post: After final primary losses, a wounded GOP establishment looks to November.

But The Hill’s Max Greenwood reports that privately some Democratic Party strategists are warning against putting too much stock in recent polling. They fear a repeat of 2016 and 2020, when polls failed to capture GOP momentum in key races “or the possibility that any support the party gained over Republicans in recent months could collapse in the 54 days before November.”

▪ The New York Times: Yes, the polling warning signs are flashing again.

▪ Vox: The case for Democratic optimism — and pessimism — in the midterms.

▪ PBS: Polls show Republicans may not get red wave they hoped for in midterms.

Meanwhile, Biden and Democrats are still challenged when it comes to the economy, write The Hill’s Brett Samuels and Alex Gangitano, as they try to embrace good news about unemployment and new legislation that spurs investment while grappling with inflation. As Biden gathered supporters at the White House on Tuesday to tout his administration’s inflation achievements, the August consumer price index report painted a far more sobering picture.

The disappointing inflation data, coupled with a stock market drop, gives the GOP fodder to criticize Biden and the White House.

▪ The New York Times: Sobering inflation report dampens Biden’s claims of economic progress.

▪ The Associated Press: Biden approval rises sharply ahead of midterms: AP-NORC poll

▪ The New York Times: Price pressures remain stubbornly high.

OPINION

■ What conflicted Americans fear most from an abortion ban, by Ross Douthat, columnist, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/3DGDIxZ 

■ Congress won’t let a rail dispute cripple the U.S., by Thomas Black, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3dbVYEm

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets at noon.

The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. and will resume consideration of the nomination of Sarah Merriam to be a United States circuit judge for the 2nd Circuit.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 8:30 a.m. Biden will host a White House United We Stand Summit and deliver a speech at 3:30 p.m. about violence, democracy and public safety. The president will also speak at 8:25 p.m. at the 45th Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Gala at the Washington Convention Center. He will return to the White House tonight.

Vice President Harris will speak this morning at the White House United We Stand Summit in the East Room. At Blair House across the street from the White House at 1:45 p.m., she will host a multilateral meeting with Caribbean leaders from Suriname, CARICOM, Barbados, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago and the Dominican Republic.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this morning will tour an IRS facility in New Carrollton, Md. She will speak at 10:30 a.m. about the Inflation Reduction Act’s provisions affecting the IRS and taxpayer services. 

Education Secretary Miguel Cardona will hold a roundtable event at 1:30 p.m. in Allentown, Pa., as part of his department’s Road to Success Back to School Bus Tour.  The secretary at 5 p.m. will visit with members of the American Federation of Teachers in Philadelphia and discuss public service loan forgiveness and other issues. Cardona will be accompanied by second gentleman Doug Emhoff. 

Economic indicator: The Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. reports on filings for unemployment benefits in the week ending Sept. 10. The Census Bureau will report at 8:30 a.m. on U.S. retail sales in August.

The White House daily briefing is scheduled at 1:15 p.m.

🖥  Hill.TV’s “Rising” program features news and interviews at http://thehill.com/hilltv, on YouTube and on Facebook at 10:30 a.m. ET. Also, check out the “Rising” podcast here.

ELSEWHERE

➤ INTERNATIONAL

Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Graham want the United States to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism and on Wednesday they introduced a measure and held a news conference hoping to push such action as a guage of U.S. support for Ukraine. It’s unclear when or whether the bill might come up for a vote. But the two senators have been advocating for the designation for months, visiting Kyiv in July to promote it (Reuters).

In an interview with The Hill’s Niall Stanage, Iuliia Mendel, the former press secretary forUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, stressed how vital ongoing U.S. aid and public interest is to her nation’s attempts to fend off Russia’s ongoing invasion. Ukraine has made surprising gains in a counteroffensive in recent days, but Mendel argued all those achievements could be for naught if U.S. aid tapers off, even as she acknowledged there is no telling how long the war might last. 

The Hill: Senate panel considers Taiwan bill — to the discomfort of White House. A new poll shows 9 of 10 voters in this country and in Europe worry Russia’s invasion of Ukraine emboldens China to invade Taiwan.

Biden spoke with Britain’s King Charles III on Wednesday to offer his condolences on the passing of his mother, the queen, and conveyed his wish to continue a “close relationship” with the king. The president and first lady Jill Biden will travel to the U.K. on Saturday to attend the queen’s funeral on Monday (New York Post).

➤ SUPREME COURT 

The Supreme Court in a 5-4 vote on Wednesday ruled that an Orthodox Jewish university in New York is required for now to officially recognize an LGBTQ student group in a rare legal defeat for religious rights. Justices rejected an emergency request made by Yeshiva University, which claims that recognizing the group would be contrary to its sincere religious beliefs. The decision leaves intact a decision by a New York state judge who ruled in June that the university was bound by the New York City Human Rights Law, which bars discrimination based on sexual orientation (NBC News).

➤ HEALTH & PANDEMIC

The World Health Organization on Wednesday urged countries to continue encouraging their populations to get vaccinated against COVID-19. “Last week, the number of weekly reported deaths from COVID-19 was the lowest since March 2020,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a news briefing in Geneva. “We have never been in a better position to end the pandemic. We’re not there yet, but the end is in sight” (CNN).

The White House on Thursday morning released information about an updated COVID-⁠19 Global Response and Recovery Framework, which ends the “emergency phase” of the pandemic, but asserts “that the United States must work with its international partners to minimize COVID-19-related cases, hospitalizations and deaths; integrate COVID-19 response activities into existing health systems while ensuring impacts on other health services are minimized; and strengthen global readiness for future pandemic threats.”

The statement cites a 70 percent vaccination rate globally, and estimates indicating that nearly 20 million deaths were averted worldwide in 2021 due to the COVID-19 vaccines.

Health experts warn that the U.S. could see the most severe influenza season since the start of the pandemic. Countries in the Southern Hemisphere experience their flu seasons early and can sometimes offer previews of what’s ahead. U.S. infectious disease experts and the government are encouraging people, especially the elderly, to get flu shots along with available COVID-19 booster doses newly tailored to the BA.5 version of omicron (The Hill). 

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,052,214. Current average U.S. COVID-19 daily deaths are 350, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

➤ TECH & CYBERSECURITY 

The downfall of Kiwi Farms, an internet forum that facilitated the discussion and harassment of online figures and communities, marked one of the internet’s most successful takedown campaigns, writes The Hill’s Brad Dress. American cybersecurity firm Clowdflare dropped security services for the website earlier this month after a targeted harassment campaign against Canadian Clara Sorrenti, a transgender activist and Twitch streamer who uses the handle Keffals, tracked her to a temporary residence in Northern Ireland, where she was hiding from attackers (Wired).

In a statement, Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince said dropping Kiwi Farms was “an extraordinary decision for us to make and, given Cloudflare’s role as an internet infrastructure provider, a dangerous one that we are not comfortable with.”

A few days later, the Russian firm DDoS-Guard also suspended security services for the website, and by the end of the week, Iceland had removed the website domain). Then the internet archive site Wayback Machine blocked access to archived information on Kiwi Farms (The Verge). The domino effect has effectively killed the website.

▪ Forward: This trolling website targeted transgender people, Jews and the disabled. Here’s how it fell.
▪ Business Insider: How the “swatting” site Kiwi Farms has created a bizarre alliance between MAGA’s Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and transgender activists.
▪ The Washington Post: Under pressure, security firm Cloudflare drops Kiwi Farms website.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) on Wednesday announced charges against three Iranians who allegedly launched cyberattacks against critical infrastructure in the U.S. and abroad.

“A senior Justice Department official told reporters that the individuals — Mansur Ahmadi, Ahmad Khatibi and Amir Hossein Nickaein — are alleged to have carried out attacks against hundreds of computers in both the United States, Russia, Israel, the United Kingdom and organizations in Iran beginning at least in October 2020,” according to Politico.

DOJ officials clarified that the agency does not believe the hackers were acting on behalf of the Iranian government but rather were demanding to be paid themselves. According to Axios, they face four charges, including conspiracy to commit fraud and related activity in connection with computers and intentional damage to a protected computer.

▪ CBS News: Justice Department charges 3 Iranians in hacking scheme targeting U.S. entities.

In California, state attorney general Rob Bonta on Wednesday filed an antitrust suit against e-commerce giant Amazon “claiming the retailer stifles competition and increases the prices that consumers pay across the internet,” according to The New York Times.

The lawsuit alleges that Amazon penalizes sellers who offer their products on other sites for lower prices, making it harder for retailers to compete (The Washington Post).

“If you think about Californians paying even just a little bit more for every product they purchased online over the course of a year, let alone a decade, which is what is at issue here, the collective magnitude of harm here is very far-reaching,” Bonta said during a news conference. “The ‘everything store’ has effectively set a price floor, costing Californians more for just about everything.”

THE CLOSER

Take our Morning Report Quiz

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! Inspired by Queen Elizabeth II, we’re eager for some smart guesses about the life and reign of her majesty. 

What year did Queen Elizabeth ascend to the throne?

1. 1948
2. 1956
3. 1953
4. 1950

After the queen’s death, which creatures under the monarch’s care had to be informed, according to protocol? 

1. Her corgis
2. Her horses
3. Her swans
4. Her bees

During World War II, how did then-Princess Elizabeth contribute to the war effort?

1. As a nurse with Queen Alexandra’s Royal Army Nursing Corps
2. By making care packages for soldiers
3. As a truck driver and mechanic for the Auxiliary Territorial Service
4. By visiting hospitals across Britain

What was Queen Elizabeth’s childhood nickname?

1. Bessie
2. Lilibet
3. Lizzie
4. Beth

Email your responses to asimendinger@thehill.com and/or kkarisch@thehill.com, and please add “Quiz” to subject lines. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver. Follow us on Twitter (@alweaver22 & @asimendinger) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

Source: TEST FEED1

Nation warned to brace for a difficult flu season

Health experts are warning the nation to brace for what could be an exceptionally severe flu season this fall and winter, as more people who have not built up immunity over the last few years mix and mingle.  There are two big reasons why more people could be vulnerable to the flu this year.  

The first is that with coronavirus restrictions such as the wearing of masks all but forgotten, people are more likely to come into contact with the flu virus this year than over the last two years.  

 The second reason is that fewer people are likely to be immune from the flu virus this year because fewer people have been getting the flu over the last two years — as the pandemic locked people down and as people worried more about getting COVID-19.  

Richard Webby, a virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital’s infectious diseases department, said the past two flu seasons simply have not seen the same levels of exposure to the flu. 

 “As a population, our immunity to the flu is down a bit,” Webby said. “When the virus comes back, it’s probably going to have a little bit more room to spread, a little bit more room to potentially cause disease.” 

In a normal year, exposure to the influenza virus generates some community immunity as about 10 to 30 percent of people are exposed to the flu in a normal season.   

But fewer people were exposed in 2020 and 2021, resulting in a decline in natural immunity.  

For example, pediatric flu deaths normally exceeded 100 every year before the pandemic.  

But the past two flu seasons have seen reported pediatric flu deaths fall under 40, with only one pediatric death confirmed in 2020. 

This lowered population immunity means that people are at a higher risk of contracting the flu this year, according to Webby. 

 Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, said the flu season for the past two years has essentially been “nonexistent” and added that this trend was always bound to end once social distancing became less practiced.  

 According to Adalja, evidence of the flu picking back up is a sign that people are returning to “some semblance of their life pre-COVID.”  

 The Southern Hemisphere is giving the United States a preview of sorts of what is to come.  

 It’s been winter in the Southern Hemisphere, and those countries have experienced a tough flu season. Australia, as one example, experienced its worst flu season in five years, with the rate of cases peaking earlier than it usually does in the country.  

 In both 2020 and 2021, the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care noted a lower rate of reported flu cases and severity, with only 37 laboratory-confirmed flu–associated deaths reported in 2020 and zero reported in 2021. Flu hospitalizations and deaths reached an all-time low in Australia last year. 

 There were nearly 600 cases of laboratory-confirmed influenza in Australia in 2021. During this year’s flu season, the country has reported more than 217,000 cases, though this is still lower than in 2019, when Australia reported more than 300,000 cases, the highest number of cases on record for the country. 

 Webby noted flu deaths and hospitalizations in Australia were still relatively low this year despite the sizable flu season that the country saw. Deaths and hospitalizations are largely driven by infections among the elderly, and Australia still practiced precautions when it came to this demographic. 

 If such precautions are also taken in the U.S., then higher flu hospitalizations and deaths could similarly be avoided, Webby said. 

 Experts who spoke with The Hill agreed that what was observed in the Southern Hemisphere appeared to be something of a return to a normal flu season, one that was not “suppressed” by the COVID-19 pandemic. Both Webby and Adalja were doubtful that a “twindemic” of both flu and coronavirus would occur this year.  

 “I don’t think that these two viruses can sort of go gangbusters at the same time,” Webby said.   

With the recent authorization of the bivalent COVID-19 booster dose, the White House has begun recommending that people receive both their booster shots and flu shots at the same time, hoping to avoid surges of both viruses.  

 For the 2022-2023 flu season, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has stated that September and October are good times to get vaccinated. 

 With many COVID-19–conscious people likely to get their booster shots sooner than later, some have questioned whether September, when COVID-19 boosters became available, is too soon to get immunized against the flu and if it would be better to get the two shots at different times.  

Adaljia said it was better to time your flu shot so that it is effective throughout the entire flu season.  

 “If you get it too early, there’s clear evidence that it wanes off by the end of the season,” he said. “Traditionally, it peaked around February. So if you’re getting a flu shot now in early September, you can’t expect it to be that effective at the tail end of the flu season. So I’ve always recommended people get their flu vaccine sometime in late October.”  

 Adalja further said he did not believe the White House’s recommendation of getting flu shots at the same time as COVID-19 shots was evidence-based.  

“What they’re trying to do is increase uptake of both and come up with a kind of a gimmick for people to get, you know, a two-for-one, when it really may foul up the efficacy of the flu vaccine if it’s given too early,” said Adalja.

Source: TEST FEED1

US must help Ukraine retain its crucial gains, says ex-Zelensky press secretary

The former press secretary to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is stressing the need for sustained U.S. aid in an interview with The Hill — even as the nation presses forward with a counteroffensive that has the potential to reshape the conflict. Iuliia Mendel, Zelensky’s press secretary from 2019 to 2021, argued that crucial gains would be wiped away if the United States did not keep buttressing Ukraine against the Russian invasion masterminded by President Vladimir Putin.  

“We all know there is always fatigue from every war. People can always ask themselves questions: ‘How long will we need [to support a] war?’” Mendel said. But, she added, “If the United States stops helping Ukraine, then all our achieved results will not make any sense because Putin [will] not stop killing us.”  

“We would like to ask for stable partners, for understanding that the war ends when Russia stops killing,” she said, adding that it was vital “for the American people to understand that their contribution and support is very important.” 

Mendel has written a book about her experiences, “The Fight of Our Lives,” which was published Tuesday.  

The book mixes details from her work with Zelensky — including her attendance at the Ukrainian president’s 2019 in-person meeting with Putin — along with more personal episodes, including her then-fiance’s decision to head to the front lines after Russia’s February invasion. 

“It is so stressful. I was asking him if it is fair,” she told The Hill, recalling her partner’s decision. “We were together for less than a year. I had the feeling that it wasn’t fair.” 

The couple married in June, however, and have returned to their home in Kyiv. 

Ukrainian forces have made major gains across the northeast of the country in recent days, shocking many observers. By some estimates, the Ukrainians have retaken 1,000 square miles of territory. 

The shift has caused consternation in Russia, with pro-war commentators criticizing their commanders and some politicians pressing Putin to institute a full-scale military draft. 

The Ukrainian advances have also put wind into the sails of U.S. politicians who have championed aid for the Eastern European nation, rebutting the idea that Russia is destined to eventually grind its opponents down. 

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) told The Associated Press in a story published Tuesday that American weapons are “there, they’re in theater and they’re making the difference.” 

Those views cross party lines, at least to some degree. 

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) told the AP that he had “not seen any lack of appetite so far” for backing Ukraine. To the contrary, the recent successes were “an encouragement to want to do more of that,” he said. 

The United States is the single biggest source of aid to Ukraine.  

Contributions announced last week by Secretary of State Antony Blinken brought total U.S. military assistance to Ukraine to roughly $15.2 billion since the beginning of President Biden’s administration, according to the State Department. 

Mendel, for her part, takes a pragmatic view of when and how the war might end. 

A total Ukrainian victory, in which Kyiv takes back control of the Donbas region or even Crimea, which was annexed by Russia back in 2014, is at best years away, she said. 

“That’s not what I would want,” she said. “As a Ukrainian, I would want it hugely. I remember, myself, going there … I feel like it’s my country. But the thing is that I’m not sure it’s possible for the reasons that both armies are exhausted.” 

Ukraine has already won a moral victory by virtue of the staunch resistance it has offered, Mendel argued.  

At the beginning of the war, many independent experts expected the much larger Russian army to quickly overrun the Ukrainian forces. Instead, Russia got bogged down and had to retreat from its efforts to capture the capital. 

Those early days also saw Zelensky decide to stay in Kyiv. Mendel, though she had by then left her post, said she considers this “the most important moment of his presidency.” 

The war might eventually be brought to a close, Mendel argued, if Ukraine can simply hold the line until Russian will is sapped. 

“We will need to see when [the] Russian Army and Putin are exhausted enough to say, ‘We would negotiate,’ ” she said.  

At the same time, she noted that conversations with fellow Ukrainians reveal that many of her compatriots believe there will never be true peace while Putin remains in power. 

There are concerns, from Kyiv to Washington, about what Putin might do if he believes the war is turning against him. The use of nonconventional weapons is a particular cause for alarm. 

But for the moment, Ukrainians, including Mendel, are taking heart from the apparent change in momentum in the conflict. 

Citing the long-running struggles in eastern Ukraine as well as other tribulations that predate the current war, she said, “We probably have learned very well how to defend. But we are learning right now how to attack.” 

“The Fight of Our Lives” by Iuliia Mendel is published by Atria/One Signal Publishers. 

Source: TEST FEED1