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Inflation uptick comes at a bad time for Biden

Fresh inflation data and a subsequent stock market tumble have come at a bad time for President Biden and Democrats, who were just appearing to be getting comfortable framing the economy as an asset for their party’s pitch to voters in November.

Tuesday provided a split screen that illustrated the problem Democrats face. Biden and scores of congressional and administration allies gathered at the White House to celebrate the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which Democrats argue will help lower the cost of health care, energy and prescription drugs.

The event had been planned last month as gasoline prices finally began to fall and inflation showed early signs of dropping from its decades-high peak. But hours before the event, newly released data showed inflation instead rose slightly in August, even though most economists expected to see the opposite.

The consumer price index rose 0.1 percent in August, a relatively small increase dampened in part by plunging gas prices. Even so, prices for food, medical care and other basic needs rose at much faster rates, triggering a brutal stock market plunge and Wall Street’s worst day of losses in two years.

The August inflation increase won’t be enough on its own to upend the economy or make a noticeable impact on prices, with Biden on Tuesday seeking to assure Americans things would be “fine.”

“The stock market doesn’t necessarily reflect the state of the economy, as you well know,” he said. “And the economy is still strong. Unemployment is low. Jobs are up. Manufacturing is good. So … I think we’re going to be fine.”

The Federal Reserve, however, is not likely to share Biden’s optimism.

Fed officials are under greater pressure to keep raising interest rates at a rapid pace with inflation still stubbornly high. Doing so will slow the economy — potentially into a recession — as soon as next year, with the race for the White House looming in 2024.

The factors complicating the economy have given Republicans areas to hit back at Democrats, who in recent weeks had found themselves seemingly within greater reach of keeping control of Congress.

Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, said it’s understandable that Democrats want to talk about the decline in gas prices, but an event like the one on Tuesday can come across as “tone deaf.”

“When you try and do these things to celebrate an act that hasn’t really even taken hold yet, you run the risk of not only bad timing, which is sort of astounding that they did that, but also appearing a bit tone deaf on what families are still going through,” he said. “And that is the sticker shock that everybody faces every time they go to a grocery store, every time they go to a restaurant, anytime they go shopping for anything. And if it’s in stock — supply chain’s still a real issue — it’s more expensive.” 

Supply chain issues are another problem that could creep up for the White House once again if rail workers decide to strike — a move that could batter the economy by bringing the transport of grain, fuel, lumber, car parts and other key products to a halt.

So far, the White House has focused its message in recent weeks on what it sees as its greatest economic successes under its watch: Low unemployment numbers, investments in manufacturing and gas prices finally falling below an average of $5 a gallon.

“As it relates to the stock market, it’s one measure of how the economy is doing and we are watching this closely. It’s also important to look at what’s happening on Main Street,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Wednesday.

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, a former chief economist at the Commerce Department under former President Obama, argued that the administration’s approach to inflation has been balanced and strategic because its agenda is focused on long-term growth.

“It sure doesn’t mean that we’re done in terms of the challenges out there on inflation. I mean, one month of data doesn’t really do the trick for me as an economist. I like to see what happens in terms of trending,” said Hughes-Cromwick, now an economist at the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way.

She pointed to legislation like the infrastructure package, the CHIPs and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act as policies that look beyond the current economic landscape, arguing that Democrats are “building a strategic base” for growth. 

Democrats are already using the Inflation Reduction Act as a top achievement while on the campaign trail ahead of the midterms, touting that they are focused on the high costs American families are facing and also that they were able to take on pharmaceutical companies to lower drug costs. 

Still, the economy has been a relative weak spot for Biden even as his approval numbers start to rebound. A Quinnipiac University poll from Aug. 31 that saw his approval rating jump 9 percentage points still had the president underwater by 21 percentage points on his handling of the economy.

Republican strategists argued that Tuesday’s inflation data provided an opening for the party to refocus its attention on the economy for the final sprint to the midterms in November. The Republican National Committee bashed Tuesday’s celebration, calling Democrats out of touch and arguing that “Americans cannot afford Biden and Democrats’ failed economy.”

But Republicans on Capitol Hill were forced to turn their attention away from criticizing Democrats on the economy and toward another issue this week: abortion. 

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) introduced legislation to impose a national ban on abortions after 15 weeks, which caught GOP senators off guard since their messaging has been focused on abortion as a state issue.

Heye said that pushing national legislation on abortion will only boost Democratic voter enthusiasm, and that instead, Republicans have to keep their focus on the fact that inflation isn’t going away anytime soon.

“It’s incumbent on Republicans to be talking about this all day, every day,” he said. “And if they’re talking about anything that isn’t inflation, crime and the border, then they’re making a mistake in their states, in their districts.”

Sylvan Lane contributed.

Source: TEST FEED1

McConnell, Rick Scott on collision course over spending deal

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is headed for another clash with Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), this time over how to handle a year-end spending deal. 

Scott, the chairman of the Senate GOP campaign organization, is teaming up with conservative Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Mike Lee (Utah) to argue that Republicans should push for a long-term continuing resolution that would fund the federal government until some point in 2023.  

“It’s time for Republicans to stand united and demand that Congress pass a clean continuing resolution [CR] that simply maintains current federal spending levels — and not a penny more — until a new Congress begins,” the three wrote in an op-ed for Fox News.  

They hope that Republicans will control the House and maybe also the Senate next year, which would allow them to have more influence over the size and shape of the omnibus spending package funding the government. 

McConnell, a senior member of the Appropriations Committee, didn’t weigh in during a private lunch Wednesday where GOP senators debated the matter. 

But several Republican senators say McConnell wants to pass a year-end omnibus spending bill before the end of the 117th Congress, although they add the leader is playing his cards close to the vest.  

One Republican senator voiced frustration that Scott is second-guessing McConnell’s approach after the two clashed publicly over political strategy heading into the midterm election.  

“He should mind his business,” the frustrated senator said of Scott, who as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has become a thorn in McConnell’s side. 

Scott told The Hill on Wednesday that he’s alarmed over Democrats’ failure to pass individual appropriations bills under regular order, instead letting them pile up into a massive omnibus package that is expected to come to the floor shortly before Christmas.  

“This is my position. Everybody has a right to their position. We all represent our states and I think everybody ought to espouse what they believe, and we ought to fight over what we all believe and all represent our states the best way we can,” he said.  

Scott, Cruz and Lee argued in their Fox News op-ed that Republicans could block funding for 87,000 new IRS agents if they gain control of one or both chambers of Congress in January.  

“It should also be clear that under no circumstances should any Republican in the new majorities next year vote to fund the Democrats’ newly passed army of 87,000 new IRS agents,” they wrote, referring to a key provision of the Inflation Reduction Act, which passed Congress on party-line votes last month.  

McConnell wasn’t happy when Scott introduced his 11 Point Plan to Rescue America earlier this year, which called for sunsetting all federal programs after a period of five years and requiring Congress to vote again to renew them.  

The GOP leader emphasized that he, not Scott, would be majority leader if Republicans won control of the Senate. 

McConnell and Scott had another run-in last month when McConnell cited “candidate quality” as a reason Republicans may not take control of the Senate in the November elections.

Scott later published a scathing op-ed in the Washington Examiner where he lashed out at Republicans who have criticized Senate GOP candidates. He said fellow Republicans “trash-talking our Republican candidates” are committing amazing acts of “cowardice” and being “treasonous to the conservative cause.”  

The Florida senator, however, later insisted to reporters on Capitol Hill that he was not making any reference to McConnell but instead to Republican strategists making anonymous remarks.

Scott also came under scrutiny from fellow Senate Republicans after he pushed the NRSC to pursue an aggressive and expensive effort to find new online donors. 

The Senate Republican campaign arm raised $181.5 million through the end of July but spent 95 percent of what it raised, leaving the committee with much less cash on hand than its Democratic counterpart.

Given the controversy over Scott’s leadership of the NRSC, McConnell’s allies don’t appreciate him butting into the negotiations over the year-end spending bill to propose a plan that they see as largely unworkable.  

“Scott, Cruz and Lee are show horses, they’re not work horses. They don’t pass bills,” said one Senate Republican aide, who requested anonymity to comment frankly on Scott’s idea to pass a stopgap spending bill that would freeze funding levels until sometime next year.  

McConnell’s allies on the Appropriations Committee warn that pushing the spending bills into 2023 will saddle the new Congress with unfinished business from the previous year at a time when they will have other policy priorities to address.

They say it will be very difficult to get the annual spending bills passed quickly in January or February because the two senior members of the Appropriations Committee, Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), will retire from Congress at the end of December.  

“I support a shorter deadline [for the stopgap spending] in December. You’re going to have two chairman outgoing,” said one McConnell ally on the Appropriations Committee, referring to Leahy’s and Shelby’s imminent retirements.  

“We’ll be going into a new Congress, which takes longer to constitute, so it’s not going to be over in January,” said the lawmaker, predicting that the bills funding government for 2023 may remain stuck in Congress until March or April.

The source said that will hurt the Defense Department’s ability to plan for next year.  

If Republicans win control of the House or the Senate, they will be focused on all sorts of organizational challenges at the end of this year and beginning of next.   

Republican senators debated the issue at a Wednesday lunch meeting.  

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said he’s open to the idea of passing a stopgap funding measure that lasts until next year, but he told colleagues at the meeting that he doesn’t want an omnibus package to lag past January.  

“We’re in the minority, we could be in the majority next year,” he said, voicing support for a continuing resolution that lasts until next year.  

But Cramer said Republicans should be ready to begin putting together their own omnibus spending package in the second half of November and December so it can pass in the new Congress in January.  

McConnell allies say any omnibus package that passes next year in a Republican-controlled Congress will still have to be negotiated with Democrats — even if Republicans win back the Senate and House — because the legislation must overcome a 60-vote threshold in the Senate.  

That means the spending debate could wind up dragging well into 2023.

Source: TEST FEED1

Democrats fear another polling misfire

Democrats are feeling good about their chances in the Senate, but there’s a lingering worry: What if the polls are as wrong today as they were in 2016 and 2020?  

Polling in some of the nation’s most competitive states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia, show Democrats making critical gains and are fueling hopes that the 2022 midterms elections may not be as painful as once feared.  

Publicly, Democratic candidates have touted the surveys as a sign of strength. But privately, party strategists warn against putting too much stock in the numbers. Democrats also saw their hopes raised by polls in 2016 and 2020 only to see them crushed — and in many of the same swing states they now see as crucial to keeping their Senate majority.  

“Yeah, I’m nervous about the polling,” Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist, said. “I think especially Democrats have a lot of PTSD from pinning their hopes on a lot of numbers and data two national election cycles in a row and having them be woefully far off.   

“The double concern then becomes that the places where Democrats are seeing their fortunes go up are the exact same states where things were far off before.”  

In Pennsylvania, for instance, a recent CBS News-YouGov poll found John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee for Senate, leading Republican hopeful Mehmet Oz by 5 percentage points. Compare that to 2020, when polls showed President Biden leading former President Trump by a similar margin.  

Biden went on to beat Trump in the state by only about 1 point.  

Likewise, in Wisconsin, an August poll from Marquette University Law School showed Democratic Senate nominee Mandela Barnes leading Sen. Ron Johnson (R) by 7 points — a lead similar to the one that Biden held in preelection polling two years ago.   

Biden ultimately carried Wisconsin, but only by about 0.6 percentage points. And a poll released Wednesday by Marquette University saw Barnes’s fortunes flip, finding him 1 point behind Johnson, though within the survey’s margin of error.  

With Democrats just one seat away from losing their Senate majority this year, those past polling errors have some in the party cautioning their candidates — and their voters — against getting too comfortable, fearing that complacency could undermine their chances in November.  

“I’m not taking any of the polling too seriously right now,” one Democratic pollster said. “We’ve been burned before, so I’m telling everyone I can, you know, ‘Forget about the polls; run through the tape.’ ”  

The battle for the House, meanwhile, still appears to favor Republicans.    

While Democrats have recently regained an edge on the generic congressional ballot — a poll question asking which party voters would support — those surveys tend to favor Democrats. And though strategists and pollsters on both sides of the aisle acknowledge Democrats are in a better position than just a few months ago, the GOP only needs to net five seats to recapture a majority in the lower chamber.  

Polling can be fickle, especially in a political environment as volatile as the one the country currently finds itself in, said Saul Anuzis, a Republican strategist and former Michigan GOP chair. 

“A poll is a snapshot in time,” Anuzis said. “So the reality is in this political climate, they tend to change more drastically. I think that you have to be much more cognizant of the fact that the numbers tend to be far more volatile than you do generally.”  

The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion rights case, turbocharged Democratic campaigns up and down the ballot and upended the GOP’s calculation that the midterms would be decided on issues like inflation, perceived rising crime and Biden’s low approval ratings.  

At the same time, Trump has remained in the national spotlight, making it more difficult for Republicans to keep the focus solely on Biden.   

Anuzis acknowledged that those combined forces — the fight over abortion rights and Trump’s continued dominance on the national stage — pose a challenge for his party this year.  

“When Republicans are talking about the issues that are really resonating among independent and moderate voters, we win and we do better,” he said. “When Democrats are able to turn it into a referendum on Trump, on abortion rights, I think they do better.”  

It’s also unclear whether polling in 2022 will suffer from the same errors that it has in the past.   

“The problems that were there in 2016 were different than in 2020 and in 2021,” Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said. “The lack of consistency over what the problems have been makes it difficult to figure out what the next problem is going to be.”   

Murray said Monmouth’s Polling Institute has changed its approach to election polling since last year, when its surveys failed to accurately reflect the kind of voters who ultimately turned out in New Jersey’s gubernatorial election. Murray is now focusing more on asking voters about the strengths and weaknesses of rival candidates, rather than whom they would vote for in head-to-head match-ups.  

That decision, he said, was due to the influence that polling can have on campaigns. Candidates and parties often use polls to juice their fundraising numbers or build a narrative around their campaigns that can ultimately affect the outcome of elections.   

“I’ve changed the way we are doing our polling around elections specifically because of the role the polls play in creating a narrative around what’s going to happen. I cannot stop the media from treating me as if I’m an oddsmaker.”  

There’s at least some reason to believe that 2022 may not see the same kind of polling failures that have materialized in recent election cycles. Public opinion surveys ahead of the last midterm elections, in 2018, offered a pretty clear picture of the final outcome; that year Democrats won control of the House, but fell short of winning a Senate majority.  

Even in 2020, the polling in some states, like Georgia, was relatively accurate. This year, most recent polling out of Georgia has shown a tight race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker.   

Reinish, the Democratic strategist, said that despite the boost his party has gotten in recent months, he hasn’t yet seen the signs of complacency among Democratic candidates that could pose a threat ahead of Election Day. 

“What’s good is that the Democratic candidates in those states — whether they’re running for governor or the House or Senate — are all running aggressive campaigns as if they are 10 points behind,” he said. “No one is resting on their laurels.” 

Source: TEST FEED1

White House: Tentative agreement reached to avoid national rail strike

President Biden early on Thursday said in a statement that railroad companies and unions representing their workers had reached an agreement to avoid a nationwide strike that could have had a severe impact on the economy.

“The tentative agreement reached tonight is an important win for our economy and the American people,” Biden said in the statement.

He went on to say that the agreement means, “These rail workers will get better pay, improved working conditions, and peace of mind around their health care costs: all hard-earned. The agreement is also a victory for railway companies who will be able to retain and recruit more workers for an industry that will continue to be part of the backbone of the American economy for decades to come.“ 

The two sides had until 12:01 a.m. Friday to broker a deal and avoid a work stoppage.

Biden thanked Labor Secretary Marty Walsh for brokering the talks that lasted well into the night.

“I especially want to thank Secretary Walsh for his tireless, around-the-clock efforts that delivered a win for the hard working people of the US rail industry: as a result, we will keep Americans on the job in all the industries in this country that are touched by this vital industry.”

This developing report will be updated.

Source: TEST FEED1

Pelosi confirms Manchin deal while downplaying clash with liberals

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) signaled Wednesday that she could back a side deal between Democratic leaders and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) if it is included in a Senate bill funding the government, setting up a potential clash with liberals in the debate over climate change. 

“If the Senate passes a CR, we have to keep government open,” Pelosi told The Hill, referring to a continuing resolution — a stopgap funding measure to prevent a shutdown.

Pelosi may not have to deal with such a situation. 

Democrats need 10 Republican senators to back a CR to get it through the Senate, and Republicans have raised complaints about the permitting reform issue at the center of Manchin’s deal with President Biden, Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). 

It’s entirely possible the Senate ends up sending a “clean” resolution to the House despite the promise to Manchin.

“Let’s see what the Senate does,” Pelosi told The Hill. 

At issue is an agreement cut in July granting centrist Manchin a vote on legislation designed to expedite energy infrastructure projects. The deal — which won Manchin’s support for a much larger health and climate bill enacted last month — dictated that the vote would come before Oct. 1. But Pelosi noted Wednesday that the legislative vehicle was never specified.  

“We had agreed to bring up a vote, yes,” she said, adding that “we never agreed on how” that vote would go down.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) stirred some confusion on Wednesday when he declared in no uncertain terms that no House Democrats, Pelosi included, have endorsed the deal.

“The Speaker has said she was not part of that agreement. I was not part of that agreement. Our committees were not part of that agreement,” Hoyer said during a press briefing. “I’m not critical of the agreement. I have questions about it, concerns about it. But having said that, this is not our agreement.”

The discordant statements left many Democrats scratching their heads — and looking for more clarity from leadership as the party scrambles to get on the same page and keep the government running beyond Oct. 1.

“I can’t make sense of any of it,” said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a liberal who opposes the permitting reforms. “Many of us really don’t know what happened. And that adds to the uncertainty that many of us are feeling. What is it that happened here? What is it exactly we’re expected to do? And where do all these moving parts settle out? 

“This is a very dynamic situation.”

As the House awaits word from the Senate, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the lower chamber’s top appropriator, said Wednesday that she opposes the idea of expediting energy projects. But she also suggested Democrats might have to swallow some version of permitting reform for the sake of preventing a shutdown.

“I’m not supportive of that piece,” she said. “But also, there’s the issue of where we go in terms of keeping the government open.”

The fate of Manchin’s proposed changes in the environmental review process isn’t certain in the upper chamber, as at least some Republicans appear hostile to it. 

In the House, there is significant resistance on the Democratic side from progressives who argue that it could speed up polluting and planet-warming fossil fuel projects. 

Nearly 80 members signed onto a letter opposing the permitting reform and calling for its exclusion from the government funding measure or any other must-pass legislation. 

In a written statement earlier this week, the leader of the opposition, Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), warned that insistence on including the reforms in the CR could result in a government shutdown.

“Give us a clean CR and let these dirty permitting provisions stand up to congressional scrutiny on their own. Now is not the time to roll the dice on a government shutdown,” he told The Hill.

If Democratic leadership can’t get enough support within their own party, House Republicans are one place they could go for potential votes to fund the government. Republicans have long supported changes to the permitting process, arguing that it’s currently too lengthy and holds up important infrastructure. 

Pelosi is generally loath to getting GOP votes to pass government funding measures, however, and Republicans in this case may have zero interest in offering help. 

Additional uncertainty stems from the fact that there is no legislative text outlining what exactly Manchin’s reforms would look like, and Manchin’s office has only released a broad summary.

“If they send us something, we’ll take a look. But they’ve got to put 60 votes on something in order to send it over,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar (Calif.), the fifth-ranking House Democrat. “So, I don’t need to get excited about that right now when I don’t have legislative language and they don’t know if they have votes.” 

That summary says that the agreement would speed up the timeline for environmental reviews that are required before an energy project can be approved, restrict states’ ability to block projects that run through their waters and make the president prioritize a “balanced” list of energy projects. 

It would also require the completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which would carry natural gas from West Virginia to Virginia, according to the summary.

The issue has put Democratic leadership in a tough spot — caught between Manchin, who they may need to work with in the future, and a large swath of their party. 

Roughly two weeks before government funding expires, all sides of the debate say they’re hopeful a resolution will emerge to prevent a shutdown. 

“It’s way too soon to make any categorical pronouncements,” said Huffman. “I’m watching, I’m engaging and still hoping that this doesn’t come down to some terribly divisive ultimatum.”

Source: TEST FEED1

Congress divided on how to stop rail strike as disruption looms

Lawmakers are divided on how to avert a national railroad strike that would devastate an economy already plagued by high inflation.

After years of contentious contract negotiations, nearly 125,000 railway workers are allowed to strike starting Friday, setting the stage for a work stoppage that would halt nearly one-third of the nation’s cargo shipments. 

Railroads are already winding down service ahead of the deadline, blocking the flow of critical agricultural products and forcing commuter rail systems to suspend routes. 

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh met with negotiators all day Wednesday in a last-minute push to reach a deal. A Labor Department spokesperson said that both parties “are negotiating in good faith and have committed to staying at the table today.”

Railroads are backing a contract based on guidance from a White House-appointed board that calls for 24 percent raises over five years and back pay. Rail workers largely oppose the deal because it doesn’t address their concerns about unsafe working conditions, long hours and sick leave. 

Congress has the power to block the strike, but lawmakers were divided on whether to intervene Wednesday. 

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) blocked a GOP resolution Wednesday afternoon that would impose the presidential board’s contract and swiftly put an end to the threat of a strike, a measure railroads and other industry groups are lobbying for. 

He cited rail workers’ complaints about the inability to get time off without the risk of penalties, even for doctors’ appointments or family emergencies. 

“The rail industry must agree to a contract that is fair and that is just. And if they are not prepared to do that, it is time for Congress to stand on the side of workers for a change and not just the heads of large multinational corporations,” Sanders said on the Senate floor. 

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) noted that the GOP resolution is based on contract recommendations crafted by a board appointed by President Biden. 

He said that Biden needs to clarify whether he supports the board’s guidance, or Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) needs to bring the GOP resolution to the floor. 

“If we don’t have one of those two actions, then we will have done nothing and we’ll see a strike and … economic devastation,” Wicker said. 

Democrats argue that the parties should be given a chance to negotiate a deal, while Republicans say that Congress needs to take action now.  

Some Democrats have privately discussed backing a bill that would address workers’ concerns, but GOP senators indicated Wednesday that they see their resolution as the bipartisan solution. Any agreement would need the support of 60 senators to pass the upper chamber. 

Meanwhile, workers appear poised to walk out after the first rail union officially voted to strike.

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers said Wednesday that its 4,900 railway workers voted to reject the presidential board’s contract and authorize a strike. The union said that it would delay the strike until Sept. 29 to give labor leaders more time to negotiate.

“We look forward to continuing that vital work with a fair contract that ensures our members and their families are treated with the respect they deserve for keeping America’s goods and resources moving through the pandemic,” the union said in a statement.

The announcement suggests that several other unions that struck the same tentative agreement will likely watch their members vote it down. A recent survey from the SMART Transportation Division, one of the two largest railroad unions, found that 78 percent of workers would reject the deal in its current form. 

The American Association of Railroads estimates that a national railroad shutdown would cost the U.S. economy $2 billion per day. 

Freight railroads transport 75 percent of new cars and 20 percent of grain shipments. Huge amounts of packaged goods, coal, crude oil, lumber and fertilizer can only be transported by rail, and most commuter trains run on freight rail lines.  

Agricultural industry groups say that railways are already halting shipments of crops and fertilizer as of Thursday, threatening the nation’s food supply and likely driving up prices.

“For every day this uncertainty continues, we essentially lose five shipping days because of the ramp down and ramp up,” Corey Rosenbusch, president of The Fertilizer Institute, said in a statement Wednesday. 

Business groups are pushing lawmakers to implement a new contract before Thursday night, warning that inaction would have a devastating effect on inflation and supply chain congestion ahead of the November midterms and holiday shopping season. 

Commuter rail service, which relies on freight rail lines, is another casualty of the disruptions. Amtrak said that it would suspend all long-distance routes starting Thursday, while commuter train systems in Chicago and Los Angeles also warned of looming disruptions. 

Top rail unions have accused railroads of holding the economy hostage in an effort to win the best possible contract terms. They say that railroads are refusing to negotiate on key issues because they know Congress will not allow workers to strike.  

Railroads say that the Biden-appointed board’s contract recommendations represent a fair compromise for both parties and noted that they provide an additional personal day.

The White House has indicated that it will not tolerate a strike, but Biden has not said how Congress should respond if negotiations fall apart. 

“We have made crystal clear to the interested parties the harm that American families and businesses and farmers and communities would experience if they were not to reach a resolution,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Tuesday.

Source: TEST FEED1

Jan. 6 panel members report progress on Trump-Secret Service probe

Lawmakers on the House panel investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol offered differing accounts Wednesday of recent evidence they have received from the Secret Service, but agreed they are making progress on its investigation into agency actions in the days leading up to the attack.

The comments follow demands from the committee that the agency turn over its communications for Jan. 5 and Jan. 6 after being notified the Secret Service lost the messages as it migrated to a new mobile management software.

The Secret Service turned in a large batch of documents to the committee in July, but Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) said “there is now a very steady flow of data coming in to the committee.”

“New information has come in and some of it is, you know, very pertinent. Some of it is less relevant, but it’s been a large volume of information,” Lofgren said during an appearance on MSNBC on Wednesday.

Panel Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) suggested that the committee has also been able to obtain additional messages from the agency.

Just a single text message was turned over by the Secret Service amid thousands of documents in response to the committee’s request – a plea from then-Capitol Police officer Steven Sund asking for help.

Thompson twice answered “yes” when asked if the files recently turned over included agency text messages from Jan. 5 and Jan. 6.

He also said he was not aware of whether they had been reconstructed.

“They were presented to us. I’m not — I don’t know the origin,” Thompson said.

“We’ve asked for any and all messages, so the tranches we’ve received have been significant,” he added. “It’s a combination of a number of text messages, radio traffic, that kind of thing. Just thousands of exhibits.”

Lofgren would not offer details on the format of the new information that has proven useful to the committee.

“I didn’t say what specific types of information, and I really am not at liberty to do that under the committee rules. You know, there’s texts, there’s emails, there’s radio traffic, there’s all kinds of information, [Microsoft] Teams meetings. So we’re going through everything that’s been provided. More is coming in. As I say, some of it is not relevant, and some of it is,” she said. 

“It’s a huge slog to go through it, but we are going to go through it, and the members of the committee themselves have been involved in this.”

The indication that the committee is making process in its investigation as it relates to the Secret Service comes as the panel’s members have said they have yet to secure testimony from Tony Ornato, who retired from the Secret Service this summer following testimony that he told White House staff that former President Trump lunged at his security detail after being told he could not join his supporters at the Capitol on Jan. 6.

While the Secret Service said Ornato and any other staff would be made available to the committee, he has yet to testify.

“He has his own lawyer and obviously the constraints of him being in the Secret Service is different than him being a private citizen,” Thompson said.

Mychael Schnell contributed.

Source: TEST FEED1

Sanders blocks proposal to force rail unions to accept labor deal

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Wednesday blocked a Republican request to force railroad workers and companies to accept the recommendations of a nonpartisan panel to avoid a strike that would impact millions of Americans.  

Sanders stood up on the floor to block the speedy approval of the resolution — introduced by Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pension Commission Ranking Member Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) — that would require railroad workers to adopt the outlines of a labor deal.  

He argued that railroad companies are making huge profits and should start treating their workers more fairly.  

“The rail industry has seen huge profits in recent years and last year alone made a record breaking $20 billion in profit,” Sanders said. “Last year the CEO of CSX made over $20 million in total compensation while the CEOs of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern made over $40 million each in total compensation.”

By contrast, Sanders said that workers in the freight rail industry are “entitled to a grand total of zero sick days.”  

GOP senators, however, say their resolution would avoid a “disastrous” rail strike, which could freeze rail travel and freight shipment around the country.    

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) accused Democrats of putting the economy at risk after Sanders blocked the resolution. 

“Senate Democrats just blocked our bill that would have given railway workers a big raise and prevented a crippling strike and supply chain crisis. If a strike occurs and paralyzes food, fertilizer and energy shipments nationwide, it will be because Democrats blocked this bill,” he tweeted.

The Burr-Wicker resolution would adopt the comprehensive recommendations by the Presidential Emergency Board, which Biden created to avert a strike. Those recommendations include significant wage increases retroactive to 2020.  

Burr noted it would include a 24 percent increase in pay, annual bonuses of $1,000 and additional paid leave.  

“This is the president’s bipartisan emergency board that he set up that came back with a recommendation to the Biden Administration and said here is the solution to this. It should be adopted,” Burr said.  

Wicker warned on the Senate floor that a rail strike would hurt the economy and further fuel inflation.  

“The last thing we need is a shutdown of this nation’s rail service, both passenger and freight. And yet, that is what we are facing in less than a day and a half from this moment, a massive rail strike that will virtually shut down our economy,” he said.  

A Republican aide said Sanders’s objection makes a strike more likely.  

“Bernie wants a strike,” the aide said.  

Local unions would still have to negotiate some of the finer details of labor agreements if the Burr-Wicker resolution were adopted, but the broad outlines of an industry-wide labor deal would be set.  

Congress has required workers and companies to accept the recommendations of a special emergency labor board recommendations on at least four previous occasions.  

Burr made that point on the floor Wednesday afternoon.  

“Congress has intervened 18 times in the past, imposing PEB recommendations in whole or in part four times. If we don’t do it, if we do not force this issue, at 12:01 tomorrow night, the railroads will shut down and the economic impact on the American people is $2 billion a day,” he said.  

Updated: 5:40 p.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

Amtrak canceling all long-distance trains starting tomorrow

Amtrak will cancel all long-distance trains beginning on Thursday to avoid disruptions in advance of a potential rail worker strike later this week.

An Amtrak spokesperson said the changes will ensure trains can reach their destinations before the strike, which could begin as early as Friday, and the adjustments could soon extend to other routes.

Amtrak is not involved in the contract negotiations between rail workers and freight companies, but many of its trains run on railroads owned by third parties that would shut down if a strike takes place.

“While we are hopeful that parties will reach a resolution, Amtrak has now begun phased adjustments to our service in preparation for a possible freight rail service interruption later this week,” the spokesperson said. “Such an interruption could significantly impact intercity passenger rail service.”

More than 115,000 rail workers are legally allowed to strike as of Friday, a deadline that has attracted a great deal of attention in Washington as lawmakers fear price gains and supply chain bottlenecks from the potential shutdown, which would add to already high inflation rates.

The new suspensions, which begin on Thursday, include Amtrak’s Auto Train service, which runs between Lorton, Va. and Sanford, Fla., and its Capitol Limited service, which runs between Washington, D.C. and Chicago.

Amtrak said it will also suspend its Cardinal service, which runs between New York City and Chicago, and its Palmetto service between D.C. and Savannah, Ga. 

Palmetto trains north of D.C., which use Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor, have not been suspended. 

Amtrak owns that rail line, which runs between Boston and D.C., so the company says “only a small number” of departures on the line as well as branches to Albany, N.Y., Harrisburg, Pa., and Springfield, Ma., will be affected.

The rail service said it will offer customers the ability to either change their travel to another date or receive a full refund.

Amtrak began suspending some of its longest routes on Tuesday and has since added additional cancellations, with 14 total routes now suspended as of Thursday.

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) on Wednesday became the first union to authorize a strike, with its nearly 5,000 workers rejecting a contract based on a White House-appointed board’s recommendations last month.

The contract proposal would implement 24 percent raises and back pay, but workers are demanding more predictable scheduling and the ability to take time off for doctors’ appointments without being penalized.

Fearing the potential economic fallout of a walkout, lawmakers are preparing to use congressional authority to block a strike. 

Some GOP senators have backed a bill that would approve the proposed contract, which is supported by railroads and business interests, and Democratic leaders have suggested they will intervene if no agreement is reached.

“All parties need to stay at the table, bargain in good faith to resolve outstanding issues, and come to an agreement,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Wednesday. “A shutdown of our freight rail system is an unacceptable outcome for our economy and the American people, and all parties must work to avoid just that.”

Source: TEST FEED1

GOP expresses hostility to Manchin permitting reform campaign

Some Republicans are expressing hostility to Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) campaign to use a government funding bill to advance permitting reform, adding to doubts about the effort’s future. 

Republicans have long lamented the length of time it takes to advance fossil fuel and other energy projects. And Manchin’s efforts could be the best shot they’ve had in years to speed up the environmental review process for energy projects.

But Republicans are also upset over the party-line passage of the sweeping climate, tax and health care bill passed under budget reconciliation rules that sidestepped the filibuster — an effort made possible by Manchin.

And they have no interest in making things easier ahead of the midterms for fractious Democrats already struggling to unify behind the plan. Many liberals strongly oppose the Manchin permitting reform deal, and nearly 80 House Democrats have come out against the plan.

“If you’re now looking for Republicans to support and give you more cover than you have right now, you’re not going to find it with us,” Sen. John Barrasso (Wyo.), No. 3 Senate Republican, told reporters this week.

Manchin struck a deal to pass permitting reform with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) along with President Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) last month, according to the senators. Schumer said the agreement was part of an overall deal to advance the climate, tax and health care bill formally titled the Inflation Reduction Act.

As part of the deal, Manchin and top Democrats agreed to advance permitting reform by Oct. 1, the start of fiscal year 2023. They did not specifically name a vehicle, but a stopgap government-funding legislation is the only must-pass legislation on the docket before that date.

The permitting reforms, which are expected to include truncated environmental reviews in the process of planning energy projects, have turned off a large group of House Democrats and drawn swift backlash from hundreds of advocacy groups.

To pass the stopgap funding bill, known as a continuing resolution (CR), senators would need at least 60 votes to bypass a filibuster. 

Manchin has expressed hope that his proposal will attract sufficient GOP support to secure its passage, telling The Hill this week that the Senate is “gonna have CR with permitting.”

But that increasingly looks like wishful thinking on the part of the West Virginia senator, as a number of Republicans say they want to go further

“So far what Joe’s put out is a one-page template — I haven’t seen anything else — and like I said, it’s not very ambitious in my view. It’s not enough for me to get to yes because frankly I don’t know why I would want to facilitate mediocrity,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). 

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a frequent ally of Manchin’s also raised concerns about using government funding to pass such significant legislation. 

“I think putting it on a CR is problematic. It’s a major policy issue,” Collins said Monday. 

In the House, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), head of the largest House conservative caucus, issued a memo questioning whether the Manchin deal will be right-wing enough to win Republican support this week.

“Republicans historically have strongly supported permitting reform, but the permitting reform text in the CR hasn’t been released and it may favor Green New Deal projects to appease Chairman Grijalva and the 70+ Democrats who’ve pledged to vote against it,” the memo said. 

Senate Republicans have begun lining up behind a dueling, GOP-led permitting reform bill that they contend goes further than Manchin’s bill.

It is led by the other senator from West Virginia, Shelley Moore Capito (R), who said she offered the bill get the party’s positions in public in the absence of legislative text from Manchin. 

“These are our ideas,” she said, expressing frustration about the lack of specifics from Manchin.

Some lawmakers who backed this alternate proposal see it as a jumping off point, and may be willing to back some sort of compromise between it and Manchin.

“I’d be willing to start to negotiate with that,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), adding he’d have to see bill text before committing to pass anything. 

If permitting reform isn’t included in a government-funding bill, Manchin may not get his promise. That’s looking like a distinct possibility.

“It seems to me it’s a stretch to try to make that happen,” one GOP senator said when pressed on whether permitting reform would make a stopgap funding bill.

Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the No. 2 Senate Republican, told reporters on Tuesday that a lot of the GOP conference has doubts “any of this will ever get implemented.” 

“We’ve seen permitting reforms that happened around the highway bill infrastructure bill, and the administration just kind of swaps them off and ignores them,” Thune said. “So the question is, are their teeth and in these reforms?”

Capito said she’d want any final legislation to include the approval of a natural gas pipeline that runs through West Virginia. The completion of that vessel, called the Mountain Valley Pipeline, is also included in Manchin’s summary. 

Others, however, say that while they support the Capito proposal, they aren’t willing to compromise with Manchin and Democrats. 

“I’m not really interested in meeting in the middle between Shelley’s bill and Joe’s bill. I’m supportive of Shelley’s bill,” Cramer said. 

Source: TEST FEED1