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These are the four largest fires currently burning in the Western US

Double Creek Fire 

The Double Creek Fire near Oregon’s northwest border with Idaho began with a lightning strike on Aug. 30. It is 15 percent contained and, to date, has engulfed more than 155,000 acres. This has led to numerous road closures and evacuations. 

State officials determined on Sept. 3 that the fire had grown beyond the fire control capabilities of local agencies, and Gov. Kate Brown invoked Oregon’s Emergency Conflagration Act. The governor’s move permits the State Fire Marshal to coordinate with other agencies and use outside sources to combat the blaze. 

Authorities expect to fully contain the Double Creek Fire by Oct. 31. 

Moose Fire

Idaho’s Moose Creek fire in Salmon-Challis National Forest, one of at least 33 large fires in the state, has burned since July 17, growing to nearly 126,000 acres over the weekend. The state’s active large fires have engulfed 248,456 acres thus far. 

The Moose Creek fire, which officials believe has a human source, is around 37 percent contained. Authorities estimate it will be fully contained by Oct. 1.  

Authorities expect a change in weather beginning Monday afternoon, “bringing clouds, increasing humidity, possible erratic wind, and a decent chance of rain heading into the week.” 

Several areas within Salmon-Challis National Forest have been closed due to the fire.

Cedar Creek Fire

The Cedar Creek Fire near Oakridge, Oregon – 40 miles south of Eugene – began Aug. 1 due to a lightning strike. The blaze, one of ten active large fires in the state, has burned nearly 86,000 acres.  

Officials said Sunday that the fire, one of nine across the state, grew by 32,000 acres over the weekend and breached existing lines, moving containment to zero percent.  

About 2,230 homes and 443 commercial structures remain threatened by the fire, officials added. 

“The Cedar Creek Fire grew rapidly towards Oregon communities this morning, and the fire’s growth potential in the coming days is troubling, requiring additional resources to battle the fire and support the state’s response,” Oregon Gov. Kate Brown said in statement Sept. 9, invoking the state’s conflagration act.  

“This is a good reminder that conditions can change quickly, and that fire knows no bounds.  

Evacuations are in place in Lane and Deschutes Counties and closures are in effect for Waldo Lake and Three Sisters Wilderness.

Mosquito Fire

Northern California’s Mosquito Fire has torched close to 47,000 acres in its first six days – consuming more than 3,000 acres in the past day alone.  

“Despite cooler temperatures, the historically dry fuel moisture in the vegetation continues driving the fire’s growth,” according to CalFire. 

The agency added that the expected clear air Monday afternoon could lead to increased fire activity as seen in recent days. So far, the fire, one of 12 large active blazes in the state, is ten percent contained.  

California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in El Dorado, Riverside and Placer counties due to fires, including the Mosquito Fire. Officials are still investigating the fire’s origin.  

The state has recorded nearly 6,300 fire incidents so far in 2022.

Source: TEST FEED1

Five things to watch ahead of the Twitter whistleblower hearing

Twitter is facing a tough Tuesday as senators gear up to hear testimony from a whistleblower alleging widespread security deficiencies at the social media company — the same day Twitter shareholders vote on whether to approve Elon Musk’s embattled $44 billion deal to buy the company. 

The Senate Judiciary hearing featuring whistleblower Peiter “Mudge” Zatko and shareholder vote come after Musk has leveraged Zatko’s allegations in his legal attempt to back out of the agreement to buy Twitter, and as lawmakers have ramped up scrutiny of Twitter and other social media companies’ ability to protect users ahead of the upcoming midterms. 

Here are five things to watch ahead of the hearing. 

Will Democrats and GOP form a united front

Tech scrutiny has emerged as a rare unifying issue in Congress, with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle attacking dominant tech platforms like Twitter. 

Many of the issues raised by Zatko in his 84-page complaint — sent to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Department of Justice (DOJ) and lawmakers — get to the heart of concerns Democrats and Republicans have pressed social media companies on, according to a copy obtained by The Washington Post in August.

When announcing the hearing in August, Senate Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Ranking Member Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) issued a joint statement stating the allegations of  “widespread security failures and foreign state actor interference at Twitter raise serious concerns.”  

“If these claims are accurate, they may show dangerous data privacy and security risks for Twitter users around the world,” Durbin and Grassley said.  

However, senators on the panel could split down party lines over more contentious topics at the hearing. 

During past tech hearings, like with Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen last year, or with tech executives including former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey in 2020, Republicans accused the platforms of censoring conservatice speech.

Meanwhile, Democrats have broadly pushed for tech companies, including Twitter, to take a greater stand against hate speech and misinformation, and may question Zatko about Twitter’s policies and ability to moderate such content. 

Questions on foreign interference 

At the center of Zatko’s allegations of widespread security deficiencies is an accusation that Twitter is not complying with a 2011 FTC consent order. The agency ordered Twitter to create and maintain a security program designed to protect privacy and nonpublic consumer information as part of a settlement over an FTC complaint that hackers were able to gain control of Twitter on two occasions in 2009. 

Up until the time of Zatko’s termination, he alleges Twitter “remained out of compliance in multiple respects” with the 2011 order.  The “deficiencies” led Twitter to suffer from an “anomalously high rate of security incidents,” he alleged.

Throughout 2021, Zatko says he became aware of “multiple episodes suggesting that Twitter had been penetrated by foreign intelligence agencies and/or was complicit in threats to democratic governance,” according to the complaint.

For example, the complaint alleges the Indian government forced Twitter to hire specific individuals who were government agents who would have access to “vast amounts of Twitter sensitive data” because of “Twitter’s basic architectural flaws.” Zatko alleges that Twitter executives violated the company’s commitment to its users by “knowingly permitting an Indian government agent direct unsupervised access” to Twitter data.

Zatko also alleges that Twitter executives “risked endangering” users in China, who are using circumvention technologies to access Twitter despite China’s ban, by accepting money from Chinese entities. 

Twitter has pushed back strongly on Zatko’s allegations, calling it a “false narrative” that is “riddled with inconsistencies and inaccuracies and lacks important context.” 

National security scrutiny 

Zatko’s wide-ranging accusations also raise concerns about national security, which will likely be a focus for senators on the panel. 

Part of his complaint focuses on questions he asked during the Jan. 6 attack at the Capitol last year. Zatko alleges he asked an executive in charge of engineering how to “seal the production environment” from potential internal protests aligning with the rioters.

Zatko said he was told it was “impossible to protect the production environment” and that all engineers had access without a log of who accessed it or what they did. 

Already Zatko’s complaint has led Sens. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) to urge regulatory agencies to investigate Zatko’s allegations. 

The Senate more broadly is focusing this week on the risk social media platforms have on national security, as well. A day after Zatko testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee is holding a two-part hearing with current and former social media executives to examine the concerns. 

Executives from Twitter, YouTube, Meta and TikTok will testify before the Senate panel Wednesday. 

“I am convening this hearing to provide a rare opportunity for the public to hear directly from the architects of these platforms on how they balance their pursuit of increased user engagement and revenue with the risk of funneling people towards violent and dangerous content that threatens the safety of our communities,” Senate Homeland Security Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) said in a statement. 

The shareholder vote 

Twitter shareholders will vote on the embattled deal for Musk to buy the company for $44 billion at a special meeting tomorrow that will likely coincide with the Senate hearing. The hearing is scheduled to begin at 10 a.m., and the shareholder vote is scheduled for 1 p.m. EST. 

Twitter’s board of directors unanimously recommended that shareholders vote to approve the adoption of the merger agreement, and analysts say shareholders are expected to overwhelmingly approve the deal. 

Despite the outcome of the vote, the deal will still be stuck in limbo as Twitter and Musk await an October 17 trial in Delaware Chancery Court over the company suing to force Musk to follow through on his deal. 

“The shareholder approval expected tomorrow formally sets the stage for the Game of Thrones Battle between Musk and Twitter in the Delaware Courts with the high possibility in our opinion that some form of negotiation likely takes place ahead of this date,” Wedbush analysts Dan Ives and John Katsingris said in a note Monday. 

How Elon Musk factors in 

Musk is trying to back out of the agreement he reached earlier this year with Twitter to buy the company for $44 billion. He argues that Twitter was not forthcoming in its assessment of the number of spam bots on the account, and therefore the deal should be voided.

Part of Zatko’s complaint appears to bolster Musk’s accusations. Zatko even accuses Twitter of “lying” to Musk about bots on the platform. 

Musk’s lawyers are leaning heavily into Zatko’s argument and issued a subpoena for Zatko as part of the case. And last week, a judge ruled that Musk will be able to introduce allegations from Zatko in the case, but denied Musk’s request to delay the trial. 

Musk filed twice with the SEC since Zatko’s accusations were published trying to back out of the deal based on the allegations he raised. Both times, Twitter has responded saying his argument is invalid, most recently in a regulatory filing Monday. 

“As was the case with each of your prior purported terminations, the Musk Parties third purported termination is invalid for the independent reason that Mr. Musk and the other Musk Parties continue to knowingly, intentionally, willfully, and materially breach the Agreement,” Twitter attorneys wrote in the Monday filing.

Source: TEST FEED1

Putin ally calls Russian retreat in Ukraine 'astounding'

The leader of Chechnya is criticizing the Russian army as it loses occupied territory to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

“It’s a very interesting situation. It’s astounding, I would say,” Ramzan Kadyrov said Sunday in an audio message on the platform Telegram, according to translations from The Guardian. 

An ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kadyrov noted that Russian forces “have made mistakes” and will likely “draw the necessary conclusions” after Ukraine pushed them into retreat.

Ukraine said it ousted Russian forces from the occupied territories to the northeastern border as Russian strikes caused power outages across the country.

“If today or tomorrow no changes in strategy are made, I will be forced to speak with the leadership of the defense ministry and the leadership of the country to explain the real situation on the ground to them,” Kadyrov said in his message.  

Kadyrov’s criticisms come as nearly 30 Russian municipal deputies signed a petition calling for Putin to resign.

Moscow is known for cracking down hard on dissent and has criminalized what it calls “fake news” about the invasion of Ukraine. Putin has yet to respond to Russia’s unexpected retreat over the weekend or to Kadyrov’s comments.

Kadyrov, appointed by Putin to lead the Russian North Caucasus republic, was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2020 for human rights abuses.

Source: TEST FEED1

UK invitation for Queen Elizabeth's funeral covers only Biden, first lady

President Biden will not travel with a delegation to Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral, the White House confirmed Monday.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters aboard Air Force One that the United Kingdom’s invitation to the United States government was only for the president and first lady.

Biden will not travel with a larger delegation as a result, though the United Kingdom could have extended separate invitations to other U.S. leaders.

Politico Europe reported, citing documents on the funeral arrangements, that each country was extended an invitation only for its head of state, plus one guest.

The White House typically sends full delegations of leaders to the funerals of foreign leaders. Multiple former presidents attended the funeral for former South African President Nelson Mandela in 2013.

Jean-Pierre said the White House received its invitation to the queen’s funeral on Saturday night, and Biden accepted on Sunday morning. He and first lady Jill Biden are scheduled to leave Washington, D.C., on Saturday for London.

The queen’s funeral, which will take place next Monday, is expected to be watched by millions and attended by foreign dignitaries from around the world. The queen died last week at age 96. She’d led the monarchy for 70 years.

The queen’s coffin will lie in state in Edinburgh and London to allow the public to pay their respects. The funeral will take place in Westminster Abbey.

Source: TEST FEED1

Trump presses court to keep blocking DOJ access to records

Former President Trump is fighting a request from the Department of Justice (DOJ) to allow its review of classified materials taken from Mar-a-Lago to continue, with Trump’s legal team arguing the investigation “at its core is a document storage dispute that has spiraled out of control.”

The filing continues to assert the former president has broad power to control his records even after he leaves office, even the classified records that the Justice Department argued Trump can have no possible claim to, and thus do not require review by a third-party special master.

In the filing, Trump’s legal team pushed back against the idea that there was any possible damage from the mishandling of records.

“There is no indication any purported ‘classified records’ were disclosed to anyone. Indeed, it appears such ‘classified records,’ along with the other seized materials, were principally located in storage boxes in a locked room at Mar-a-Lago, a secure, controlled access compound utilized regularly to conduct the official business of the United States during the Trump Presidency, which to this day is monitored by the United States Secret Service,” they wrote.

The response from Trump’s team came after the Justice Department last Thursday indicated it planned to appeal a federal district court judge’s ruling green-lighting a special master, also asking her to approve a partial stay that would exclude some 300 classified records from their review.

“The classification markings establish on the face of the documents that they are government records, not Plaintiff’s personal records,” the DOJ wrote.

“And for several reasons, no potential assertion of executive privilege could justify restricting the executive branch’s review and use of the classified records at issue here.”

But Trump’s team claimed Monday that classification status matters little within the Presidential Records Act (PRA) and that Trump’s document issues should be sorted with the National Archives, or NARA.

“Of course, classified or declassified, the documents remain either presidential records or personal records under the PRA,” they wrote.

“At best, the government might ultimately be able to establish certain presidential records should be returned to NARA. What is clear regarding all of the seized materials is that they belong with either President Trump … or with NARA, but not with the Department of Justice.”

The filing is the closest Trump’s legal team has gotten to repeating claims by the former president that he declassified the information found in his home – but they stop short of actually doing so.

The brief spends a few pages noting that presidents have the power to declassify documents but never say that Trump actually did so.

“The government’s stance assumes that if a document has a classification marking, it remains classified irrespective of any actions taken during President Trump’s term in office,” Trump’s legal team wrote.

“There is no legitimate contention that the chief executive’s declassification of documents requires approval of bureaucratic components of the executive branch. Yet, the government apparently contends that President Trump, who had full authority to declassify documents, ‘willfully’ retained classified information in violation of the law,” they added.

In an earlier round of filings, the DOJ noted that in the months of discussions Trump’s legal team never raised the prospect that the former president had declassified the intelligence material at his home, nor had they offered any explanation for why he had roughly 10,000 government records stored there.

A response brief from Trump’s team the next day was silent on those matters.

— Updated at 11 a.m.

Source: TEST FEED1

The Hill's Morning Report — Spending bill, Jan. 6 hearings highlight House’s return

The House returns to work this week with a full plate, headlined by the push to fund the government and the resumption of hearings by the Jan. 6 committee, as part of a key monthlong stretch before the November elections.

After a month away, the to-do list for Democratic lawmakers is straightforward: keep the government’s lights on and chalk up some more legislative wins ahead of the midterms. However, that doesn’t mean this will happen easily, as Democrats are facing a number of potential stumbling blocks.

Topping that list is the effort by Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to make good on his deal with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and include permitting reform language in the government spending bill, which must pass by the end of the month.  As The Hill’s Mychael Schnell notes, the permitting reform legislation would seek to expedite the development of fossil fuel and other energy products by setting maximum timelines for environmental reviews, among other things.

This move is much to the chagrin of progressives, who are lining up en masse against its inclusion. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Thursday announced his opposition to the side deal struck by Schumer and Manchin that locked up the latter’s support for the Inflation Reduction Act that became law last month.

However, Sanders’s comments were simply a precursor as House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) said on Friday that more than 70 House Democrats have signed on to a letter to oppose the attachment of the permitting push to the stopgap spending bill. That total increased from more than 40 only days beforehand (The Wall Street Journal).

“The inclusion of these provisions in a continuing resolution, or any other must-pass legislation, would silence the voices of frontline and environmental justice communities by insulating them from scrutiny,” the letter said.

There are potential workarounds for Schumer in order to lock down Democratic support for the spending measure. Chief among them would be to attach a bill codifying same-sex marriage, although the top proponents of the proposal effort have widely panned that idea.

▪ The Hill: This week: Senate to move on marriage equality, House reconvenes.

▪ NBC News: Senate grapples with election reform legislation as time runs short to act.

Meanwhile, the Jan. 6 committee is set to resume the public portion of its investigation with another set of hearings in the coming weeks as the panel zeroes in further on former President Trump’s role in the attack on the Capitol.

As The Hill’s Mike Lillis and Rebecca Beitsch detail, the committee has spent the lengthy August recess interviewing a number of new witnesses and pushing for cooperation from others, with former Georgia Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich, former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows and former Vice President Mike Pence headlining that list. The first hearing could take place as early as Sept. 28.

However, the work of the panel has taken a back seat over the past month in the world of Trump-based investigations after the FBI’s search of the former president’s Mar-a-Lago residence and the subsequent battle between him and the Department of Justice over classified documents and sensitive material that have been seized.

▪ Politico: 16 weeks left for a heap of questions: Jan. 6 panel weighs its endgame.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Jan. 6 panel to restart hearings as House returns to work.

The fallout from Jan. 6 is extending in other directions as well. As The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports, Senate Republicans — including a number of top Trump allies — are lining up against the ex-president’s promise to pardon Capitol rioters for their actions.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told The Hill that Trump’s pardon plan is a “bad idea.”  Other GOP lawmakers likened Trump’s call to an undeserved handout.

“I don’t think potential candidates should hold pardons out as a promise,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). “It’s somewhat problematic for me on a moral level and an ethical level — sort of like promising other giveaways to particular individuals.”

However, others have not dismissed it out of hand. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who led objections to the Electoral College tally in January 2021, both indicated that they are keeping an open mind and are not against leniency to those who were not involved in Capitol destruction or assaulting Capitol Police officers, among other things.

“Let’s see which ones he would choose to do,” Hawley said of Trump’s potential pardon effort. “There’s no question it has been a massive prosecutorial effort.”

Related Articles

▪ Politico: House GOP eyes its own Trump-free Jan. 6 inquiry.

▪ The New York Times: Two former Trump political aides, Stephen Miller and Brian Jack, are among those subpoenaed in the Jan. 6 case.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Trump lawyer Chris Kise seeks to “lower the temperature” over the Mar-a-Lago documents. The aim of the former Florida solicitor general is to resolve the case without the government seeking criminal prosecution.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ POLITICS

The Sunshine State has brightened the mood, or at least raised the hopes, of some Democratic candidates about their prospects on Nov. 8, reports The Hill’s Max Greenwood. The next few weeks may determine if Florida is still a battleground state.

On the ballot is Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who is running for reelection with the bravado and anti-liberal themes of a politician who may launch a White House bid in 2024, and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), once a GOP presidential primary contender.

DeSantis in recent polls leads former Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), once Florida’s Republican governor who has switched parties several times in his career and recently resigned from the House to campaign full-time. Rubio, who holds a slim advantage in surveys, is defending his Senate seat against Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.). 

Despite the fingers-crossed among Democrats that Florida voters might be in a mood to bounce incumbents this year, Trump won Florida in 2016 and 2020, Republicans have outpaced Democrats in voter registration and Democrats struggle among Latino voters in some key parts of the state, especially South Florida.

The Kansas City Star: DeSantis will campaign Sunday in Kansas for Attorney General Derek Schmidt, the state’s GOP nominee for governor.

In the open-seat contest in Pennsylvania, Republican Mehmet Oz for weeks has badly trailed Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, his Democratic rival, in polls, forcing the celebrity doctor to try a new strategy aimed at putting Fetterman on defense over the timing and number of televised debates this fall. Meanwhile, a pro-Oz group rolled out an ad targeting Fetterman over a 2013 incident in which he pulled a gun on a Black male jogger he suspected of a crime (The Hill).

Fetterman is recovering from a near-fatal stroke and heart surgery this year and concedes he has some residual “auditory processing” and speech effects, but he has agreed to debate. A Democratic win in the Keystone State would flip a seat now held by retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.). Several political handicappers recently shifted the Senate race to the “toss-up” category, which Democrats perceive as a favorable omen.

▪ Reuters: Fetterman on Sunday sought to allay concerns about his health during a campaign rally focused on abortion rights in suburban Philadelphia.

▪ Axios: Oz’s suburban play.

▪ The Washington Post: Biden turns urgently to critical task of holding the Senate.

Tuesday brings another group of primary contests, this time in Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island. The Hill’s Emily Brooks examines a New Hampshire House race, one of the final competitive Republican primary races of the midterm cycle, in which Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) finds himself in a proxy battle between GOP leaders and factions of his party in the Capitol.

▪ The Hill: Six primary races to watch in New Hampshire and beyond.

▪ The Washington Post: Primary season concludes with bitterly contested GOP races in N.H.

▪ The Hill’s Niall Stanage: Five issues that will decide the midterms.

Democratic candidates believe one of the most potent policy issues they’ve deployed against Republican opponents this cycle is about health, including reproductive rights and birth control, abortion and health care for women, defending coverage and costs under the Affordable Care Act, efforts to lower prescription drug prices under Medicare and under private insurance (think insulin), COVID-19 vaccines and boosters, and support for Americans dealing with mental health challenges.

Add to that list President Biden’s dedication to medical science’s long search for a cancer cure and the government’s support for research and innovative drugs and treatments to help those with the disease. It’s a “moonshot” project he spearheaded with emotion while serving as vice president, in part because his son, Beau Biden, died in 2015 of incurable brain cancer. The president will publicly relaunch that effort in Boston today.

▪ The Hill: Democrats seek a midterm season opportunity with ObamaCare court ruling out of Texas.

▪ The Associated Press: A majority of Americans say they are unhappy with the U.S. healthcare system, including accessing quality care when they need it, access to care for seniors, the cost of prescription drugs and mental health care, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ ADMINISTRATION

Queen Elizabeth II’s state funeral is set for Sept. 19 at Westminster Abbey in London, according to Buckingham Palace, and Biden and first lady Jill Biden will attend (The Associated Press).

Ahead of the funeral for the United Kingdom’s longest-reigning monarch, the queen’s flag-draped casket on Sunday began making a slow journey from Scotland, where she died Thursday at age 96, headed for London. The procession first stopped in Edinburgh after passing mourners who packed city streets and highway bridges or lined rural roads with cars and tractors to take part in a historic goodbye to the monarch, according to The Associated Press.

“I think she has been an ever-constant in my life,” Angus Ruthven, a civil servant from Edinburgh, told The Associated Press. “She was the queen I was born under, and she has always been there.”

This morning, the queen’s coffin sits in St. Giles’ Cathedral, where it will lie in state for 24 hours (The Associated Press). Meanwhile, King Charles III on Monday morning addressed parliament at Westminster Hall (The New York Times).

The casket on Tuesday will be flown to London aboard a Royal Air Force jet. “It will be loaded into a state hearse and driven to Buckingham Palace, arriving at 8 p.m., when it will be placed on a trestle in the ballroom,” The New York Times reports. It will then be transported in a silent procession on Wednesday to Westminster Hall, where the queen’s remains will lie in state for four days after receiving a blessing from the archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby.

Funeral attendance is expected to be in the tens of thousands or more, although Buckingham Palace has not commented on the number of dignitaries, officials and members of the House of Windsor expected to attend the historic event (The New York Times).

Among those beloved by the queen and left behind are her dogs, whose futures are chronicled by the news media and whose canine lineage has been amply tracked in photographs since the 1950s.

Her majesty’s corgis, Muick and Sandy, will reside with her son, Andrew, the Duke of York, and his ex-wife Sarah, the Duchess of York. The queen, who owned dozens of dogs beginning in her childhood and showed a particular fondness for the breed, left behind two Pembroke Welsh corgis as well as a “dorgi” (corgi-dachsund mix) named Candy and a cocker spaniel called Lissy (CNN).

“One of the intriguing things people are wondering about at the funeral is whether a corgi is going to be present,” royal historian Robert Lacey told The Associated Press. “The queen’s best friends were corgis, these short-legged, ill tempered beasts with a yap that doesn’t appeal to many people in Britain.”

🌏 On U.S. trade with China, Reuters reports this morning that Biden plans next month to broaden curbs on U.S shipments to that country of semiconductors used for artificial intelligence and tools used to make computer chips.

OPINION

■ It’s time to prepare for a Ukrainian victory, by Anne Applebaum, staff writer, The Atlantic. https://bit.ly/3L5CMog

■ 21 years after 9/11, the war has not ended for anyone, by David Von Drehle, columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3evrQEa

WHERE AND WHEN

The House will meet on Tuesday at 2 p.m.

The Senate convenes at 3 p.m. and will resume consideration of Salvador Mendoza Jr. to be U.S. circuit judge for the 9th Circuit.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. Biden will speak from Boston’s Logan International Airport at 12:45 p.m. about the impact of the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure investment law. On the 60th anniversary of the late President Kennedy’s “Moonshot” speech, Biden will give a speech at 4 p.m. about his administration’s Cancer Moonshot at the John F. Kennedy Library and Museum in Boston. The president will speak at a 6 p.m. political fundraiser for the Democratic National Committee in Boston. He is scheduled to return to the White House by 9:05 p.m.

Vice President Harris will meet at the White House with civil rights and reproductive rights advocates at 5 p.m.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will meet in the White House Diplomatic Reception Room at 2:30 p.m. with the National Council of Jewish Women to discuss reproductive rights and abortion access.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Mexico City, Mexico, to co-chair the 2022 U.S.-Mexico High-Level Economic Dialogue event focused on economic, commercial and social priorities, accompanied by other Cabinet members and State Department colleagues. While in Mexico, the secretary will hold a bilateral meeting with Mexican Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard.

The first lady and Education Secretary Miguel Cardona will hold education events in Knoxville, Tenn., this morning, and Greensboro, N.C., at 1:15 p.m. to kick off a Road to Success Back to School Bus Tour.  

🖥  Hill.TV’s “Rising” program features news and interviews at http://thehill.com/hilltv, on YouTube and on Facebook at 10:30 a.m. ET. Also, check out the “Rising” podcast here.

ELSEWHERE

➤ INTERNATIONAL

Russia on Sunday acknowledged it had lost nearly all of the northern Ukrainian region of Kharkiv after a blitz by Ukrainian fighters (The New York Times).

Russian forces were in retreat over the weekend and Ukraine today is maintaining its counteroffensive. “In some areas of the front, our defenders reached the state border with the Russian Federation,” said the regional governor of the northeastern Kharkiv region, Oleh Syniehubov (The Associated Press).

Ukrainian forces marked 200 days of war by regaining territory in the east and south from Russian forces as part of the major counteroffensive Kyiv launched in late August. Ukraine regained control of the Kherson, a region that Russia swiftly took hold of in the early days of the war, and made headway in Kharkiv, where Russia ordered a troop drawback. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address on Saturday that the nation has recaptured more than 770 square miles of territory this month alone and mocked the Russian army, saying it was “demonstrating the best it can do — showing its back” (The Associated Press).

Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia power plant announced on Sunday that it was shutting down its final working nuclear reactor because of continued shelling in the area. Energoatom, the nuclear operator, said in a statement that while the plant has been reconnected to the nation’s electric grid, one reactor was being powered down to allow it to cool. The entire plant had been cut off from the grid in recent days, with the lone working reactor operating on “island mode” to allow cooling systems to work.

All of these moves have been made to ensure a nuclear meltdown is avoided. The largest nuclear plant in Europe is staffed by Ukrainian workers, includes on-site experts sent from the International Atomic Energy Agency and is being held as a fortress of war by Russian forces (The Associated Press).

The plant’s strains were among issues discussed during a Sunday meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders exchanged perspectives and blame for the ongoing conflict (Reuters).

▪ The New York Times: Ukraine is challenging the Kremlin’s military strategy.

▪ Reuters: Russian nationalists rage after stunning setback in Ukraine.

▪ The Washington Post: White House alarm rises over Europe as Putin threatens energy supply.

▪ The Associated Press: Ukraine keeps initiative, claims it reached Russian border.

▪ Reuters: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet Putin this week in his first trip outside China since COVID-19 began. They will meet in Uzbekistan on the sidelines of a gathering Thursday and Friday of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Also participating: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (Indian Express).

➤ HEALTH & PANDEMIC

Israeli scientists say they have invented a blood test that will be able to detect colorectal cancer, which is normally found through a colonoscopy, and pancreatic cancer, which today has no single diagnostic test. They claim that the test could also simplify screening for other cancers, and save lives by eliminating invasive colonoscopies for colorectal cancer, which many patients are afraid of and skip (Times of Israel).

Too much processed food shortens lives. ​​Two recent studies added to the body of science that has affirmed that conclusion. One test published in the British Medical Journal and backed up by the American Cancer Society found an increased risk of colorectal cancer for men in the top fifth of ultra-processed diets in the U.S. The other study found that preservative-laden foods were linked to early death, especially from heart disease. The latest evidence against ultra-processed foods — a category that includes hot dogs, potato chips, and frozen pizza — shows that consuming too many unhealthy snacks increases the risk of colon and rectal cancer for men, as well as premature death due to heart disease for both men and women (Yahoo News).

COVID-19 illnesses are keeping half a million workers out of the U.S. labor force, according to a new study, and if the trend continues, the impact on employment will not abate anytime soon (The Wall Street Journal).

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,050,323. Current average U.S. COVID-19 daily deaths are 318, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

➤ SPORTS

Carlos Alcaraz, 19, on Sunday became the first teenager to win a Grand Slam title in 17 years when he won the U.S. Open in Flushing Meadow, N.Y. Alcaraz of Spain defeated Casper Ruud of Norway 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (1), 6-3 to nab the first of what could be many career Grand Slam championships ahead for him. Alcaraz also earned the world No. 1 ranking after winning his fifth tournament of the season. “Well, this is something that I dreamed of since I was a kid,” said Alcaraz, who captured the championship after winning his previous three matches in five sets. “It’s something I worked really, really hard [for]. It’s tough to talk right now. A lot of emotions” (ESPN).

THE CLOSER

And finally … “So many heroes were made here,” Biden said Sunday while honoring 9/11 victims and families during a wreath-laying ceremony that marked the 21st anniversary of the terror attacks (The Hill). “So many of your loved ones were those heroes,” the president said while laying a wreath at the Pentagon under rainy skies.

The president was a Delaware senator during the 2001 tragedy at the World Trade Center towers, at the Defense Department across the Potomac River from the nation’s capital, and in Shanksville, Pa., when a hijacked commercial jetliner crashed in a field, killing the terrorists and passengers. The events that day led the United States into war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Biden last year pulled U.S. forces out of Afghanistan, honoring a negotiated agreement by his predecessor for Taliban control, to put an end to what the president called America’s “forever war.”

The first lady spoke Sunday during a ceremony in Pennsylvania, while the vice president and Emhoff participated in New York City’s 9/11 anniversary gathering of VIPs and relatives of those killed at Ground Zero.

▪ The Hill: Here’s how Biden has changed the way America fights the war on terror.

▪ The Hill: Retired general: U.S. has “very limited ability” to see into Afghanistan.

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver. Follow us on Twitter (@alweaver22 & @asimendinger) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

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Biden leaves American Muslims wanting

When President Biden was elected in 2020, Muslim Americans hoped to see a change in representation in government.  

At the time, hate crimes against Muslims were on the rise, and anti-Islamic rhetoric was surging, which critics attribute, in part, to former President Trump.  

The former president took a hardline stance on Muslims, signing an executive order in 2017 banning foreign nationals from seven predominantly Muslim countries and sending shockwaves throughout the Muslim American community. 

But almost two years into the Biden administration, Muslims in the U.S. are split on the accomplishments — and failures — of the administration’s efforts to represent the community. 

Since his inauguration, President Biden has attempted to include Muslims in his government, appointing several Muslim Americans to high-profile public offices.  

The list includes: Lina Khan, chair of the Federal Trade Commission; Sameera Fazil, National Economic Council Deputy Director; Reema Dodin, White House Office of Legislative Affairs Deputy Director; and Rashad Hussain, Ambassador at Large for International Religious Freedom.  

In addition, Biden’s first policies after being sworn in was to reverse the controversial “Muslim ban,” condemning the policy of his predecessor as a “stain on our national conscience.” 

“Beyond contravening our values, these Executive Orders and Proclamations have undermined our national security. They have jeopardized our global network of alliances and partnerships and are a moral blight that has dulled the power of our example the world over,” he said at the time. 

But there are no Muslim Americans serving in the president’s Cabinet, and experts say that the community is still dealing with the consequences of the former administration’s policies.  

Robert McCaw, director of government affairs at the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation’s largest Muslim civil liberties and advocacy organization, told The Hill that as a candidate “Trump was able to tap into a real political undercurrent of Islamophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment that was rising in America, which resulted in the Muslim ban.”  

“The ban itself lit a fire under the Muslim community to politically mobilize: to register to vote and make our voices heard in Congress,” he added.  

This mobilization proliferated. A recent CAIR poll found that more than 91 percent of registered Muslim Americans respondents are likely to vote in the upcoming midterms. 

While Biden’s reversal of the ban was commended by advocates, CAIR added that both the Biden administration and Congress still need to “take action to repair the damage done” to everyone impacted by the ban. 

“On day one, the president overturned the Trump administration’s Muslim ban, which was deeply appreciated by the Muslim community, but then he left all those Diversity Visa recipients who lost their chance at the American dream in a lurch,” said McCaw. 

International affairs remain a top concern for many in the U.S. Muslim community, McCaw added.  

The CAIR poll showed the top five most important Muslim-related foreign policy issues included the Israel-Palestine conflict, Chinese treatment of Uyghur Muslims, oppression of Muslims in India, repression of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar and starvation in Afghanistan. 

“Despite multiple requests from the Muslim community and Congress to use his executive powers to create the special envoy position at the State Department to combat and monitor Islamophobia — especially for places like China, India, Burma and France — the President has not acted, even though House Democrats last December passed a bill designed to create such a position, which had the backing of key senators like Cory Booker, Ben Cardin and Bernie Sanders,” said McCaw. 

One of the biggest criticisms American Muslim community has of the administration is its handling of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.  

The issue received renewed attention following the death of Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh who was killed covering Israeli military raids on the West Bank. The State Department issued a statement in early July saying that a review of investigations conducted by both the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Palestinian Authority was inconclusive.  

This week, the IDF said that Abu Akleh was likely killed by Israeli fire, according to CNN.  

Some Muslim Americans found Biden’s response disappointing.  

According to McCaw, the Biden administration’s public response to Abu Akleh’s death were “disturbing”.  

Others believe that Biden’s track record when it comes to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has never wavered.  

“He has a very long history of being very pro-Israel,” said Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.  

“He’s a strong defender of weapons sales and what they call a qualitative military edge, which is the promise the US has made to Israel to make sure that it will always be able to defeat any local rivals or combination of rivals in the Middle East, including other U.S. allies. So, there is as promised to keep the Israelis better armed than anybody else. He’s for that. And he’s sort of very friendly with the Israeli center right.” 

The Hill has reached out for comment from the White House on this criticism.

But Ibish added that Biden is a firm supporter of a two-state solution, noting that the current president’s approach to the issue isn’t all that different from his predecessors dating back to former President Reagan. 

And while Muslims prefer Biden to Trump, his approval rating remains at 28 percent within the community, according to the CAIR poll.  

Executive director of the Muslim Justice League Fatema Ahmad said much of that has to do with Biden’s domestic policies.  

Ahmad was in high school when the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks occurred. But she endured “vehement” racism in her community long before then — and it only increased after the attacks.  

But now she’s concerned about attacks from what she says is an unjust system as well. 

“I’m much more worried about the FBI surveilling me day to day than the individual or interpersonal level of violence,” said Ahmad. 

Her organization works to dismantle the Countering Violent Extremism task force, which Biden vowed to end while on the campaign trail.  

“In the past five to seven years many Muslim folks around the country realized that this was really dangerous,” she explained. “It would lead to racial and religious profiling and actually chill access to social services.” 

Ahmad said that there has been no substantive change in the way that the FBI and other U.S. law enforcement organizations deal with Muslim Americans on a day-to-day basis.  

“Anytime folks go to the airport, they just expect to be harassed,” she said. “They expect to be interrogated. It’s not just the invasive pat downs. People get pulled aside by CBP into a room. They’re questioned on their faith and their politics.”  

These instances have led to increased feelings of distrust toward government within the Muslim American community, she said, adding that this close to midterms, both Biden and his party need to step up their messaging to the community to win their votes. 

“[Democrats] need to take a serious look at what the FBI has been doing, what has the Department of Homeland Security and all of its offices been doing, and reflect on that,” Ahmad said. “There’s a pretty big disconnect to then ask us to engage with those agencies on civil rights issues.” 

McCaw said that Democrats need to remember that a large population of Muslim Americans cast their ballots in swing states in 2020, helping them secure the White House. 

 Now, he said, they need to give back. 

“Don’t engage us only during election season,” McCaw said. “Show up after you’re elected to your local mosque. Get to know its congregants and leaders and what they’re concerned about locally and nationally.” 

But Abdullah Hammoud (D), the first Muslim mayor of Dearborn, Mich., told The Hill that the Muslim American community in his city sees the current administration’s policies as favorable. 

“Especially as a president who came in right in the midst of a pandemic, to roll out the resources that he has. There’s been many successes that Biden can hold his head on. I firmly believe it. And I think people see it. I just think it’s a difficult time right now because inflation is still at a record high, although unemployment is coming down, and people are still struggling,” he said. 

However, Hammoud said it’s still too early to give a firm assessment on the Biden administration’s performance thus far.  

“I think collectively amongst minorities, there’s always gonna be this demand where we believe those in the elected office are falling short because it’s been decades, if not centuries, of inequities that have been perpetuated by every single person in office that has to be addressed,” Hammoud added.  

“So I think we’ll always be left longing for more regardless of which president is in office, that’s just the reality,” Hammoud said. 

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New Hampshire House primary emerges as GOP proxy war

One of the last Republican House primaries of the midterm cycle has emerged as a proxy battle between House GOP leaders and factions of the Republican party. 

Candidates vying to face vulnerable Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District are jockeying over how Trumpy and conservative they are, as millions of outside dollars are being poured into the race and attacks have gotten personal in the run-up to the Tuesday primary.

Matt Mowers, a former Trump appointee in the State Department, has the endorsement of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), as well as Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. 

His closest competition is Karoline Leavitt, a 25-year-old former press aide in the Trump White House and in House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik’s (R-N.Y.) congressional office, has endorsements from Stefanik, Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), as well as from Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah).  

And she’s proven to be a strong fundraiser, bringing in more than $1.5 million during the primary cycle. 

In response, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with McCarthy, has poured more than $1.5 million into the race to support Mowers with digital and television ads, direct mail, phone calls and text messages. Mowers himself has raised $1.7 million, slightly more than Leavitt. 

Leavitt has argued that her youth is a party-expanding asset. But well-funded forces are arguing that she is too young and inexperienced to flip the seat.

The Defending Main Street super PAC, part of a network of groups that supports more centrist Republican candidates, has pumped nearly $1.3 million into campaigning against Leavitt.

A television ad released by the super PAC just before Labor Day billed her as “immature and irresponsible,” featuring an old video of Leavitt saying, “Listen up, hoe bags,” before bursting into laughter. 

The Republican Main Street Partnership PAC, another organization in the group’s network, endorsed Mowers.

Leavitt says the ad is a sign that the establishment is afraid of her.

“Voters are smart. The negative, desperate, disgusting smears that the establishment and these dirty money super PACs are waging against not only me, but my family, are completely backfiring,” Leavitt told The Hill in an interview. “Voters understand, thanks to President Trump, that when they are attacking you, it means you’re over the target and you’re winning.” 

Mowers has also faced consistent attacks from his opponents, including in an ad from Leavitt focusing on the fact that he voted in both New Hampshire and New Jersey presidential primaries in 2016. The New Hampshire Attorney General’s office said that he did not violate the state’s law. 

Mowers faced Pappas as the Republican nominee for the seat in 2020, losing by 5 points. This year, after redistricting, the nonpartisan election handicappers at the Cook Political Report say the seat is more of a toss-up.

Some internal and independent polls conducted last month showed Mowers with double-digit leads over Leavitt. But other surveys show a much more competitive race, with a late August poll from the University of New Hampshire finding Mowers leading at 26 percent and Leavitt at 24 percent support.

Other candidates in the crowded race are also pumping their conservative credentials.

Retired broadcast journalist Gail Huff Brown, wife of former Massachusetts U.S. Senator and New Zealand Ambassador under Trump Scott Brown, scored an endorsement from Fox News host Sean Hannity. 

State Rep. Tim Baxter, another 25-year-old who is endorsed by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), slightly defended Leavitt from the Main Street ad while also knocking her for arguing that her youth is an asset.

“I just don’t think that people should be campaigning on identity politics. I think you’re never too young or too old,” Baxter told The Hill, also knocking the outside spending. “People are sick of these politicians that are bought and paid for. The people of New Hampshire don’t want a pawn for the swamp as the representative in D.C.”

While different factions of the MAGA movement war with each other in the race, former President Trump himself has stayed silent. He endorsed Mowers in 2020. 

But that has not kept candidates from making him central to the race. Trump’s name repeatedly came up at a recent primary debate. 

Leavitt leaned into Trump’s unproven claims about the 2020 election, saying in the debate that she believes it was stolen from Trump and that President Biden did not win 81 million votes.  

“That’s a preposterous claim,” she said.

The Mowers campaign went as far as to send out a mailer this week that pictured him alongside Trump, and featured the first part of Trump’s 2020 tweet in which he praised and endorsed Mowers — but cutting off the line about endorsements.

“Matt worked tirelessly with President Trump to secure the border, restore America’s energy independence and advance the America First agenda,” John Corbett, a spokesman for Matt Mowers, told The Hill in a statement. “In the days leading up to the primary, Matt is crisscrossing the district offering his solutions to fix the problems, like inflation and high gas prices, created by Joe Biden.” 

Though Leavitt had previously said she would vote for McCarthy for House Speaker if she gets to Congress and Republicans would take back the House, she appears to have soured on him after his PAC’s mass spending. 

“Kevin McCarthy and the establishment are spending millions and millions of dollars to buy the seat. So I won’t be very inclined to help the establishment when I get down there,” Leavitt told The Hill. 

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Democratic tensions rise to surface in sprint to midterm elections

Simmering tensions among congressional Democrats are rising to the surface as the party looks to secure a few more legislative victories in the final two-month sprint to the midterm elections.

Both chambers have jam-packed agendas as they enter the final policy-making month before the November midterm elections.

The House, which reconvenes on Tuesday, will not be in session in October so that lawmakers can head home to campaign — leaving little time for legislating.

The Senate, which reassembled last week, is scheduled to be in session for part of next month, though it is unlikely they will use the extra days in Washington.

At the top of the agenda is legislation to prevent a government shutdown on Oct. 1.

Funding the government itself isn’t splitting liberal and centrist Democrats, but there are likely to be divisions over how to get a bill through Congress.

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) wants to include language in a stopgap government funding measure on permitting reform to make good on a deal he and other party leaders made with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to secure his support for passage of last month’s Inflation Reduction Act.

But liberals in the House and in the Senate — including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) — oppose the reforms.

“I rise this morning to express my strong opposition to the so-called side deal that the fossil fuel industry is pushing to make it easier for them to pollute the environment and destroy our planet,” Sanders said on the Senate floor last week.

The permitting reform legislation is expected to expedite the development of fossil fuel and other energy products by setting maximum timelines for environmental reviews, among other things.

Schumer promised Manchin that permitting reform would pass in exchange for his support of the multi-billion dollar climate, taxes and health care bill. Manchin’s backing was essential in helping Democrats secure enough support in the 50-50 Senate to trigger Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote.

Sanders called the permitting reform legislation “a huge giveaway to the fossil fuel industry,” and argued that the measure would sabotage Biden’s goal of halving carbon emissions by the year 2030.

“Really, at a time when climate change is threatening the very existence of our planet, why would anybody be talking about substantially increasing carbon emissions and expanding fossil fuel production in the United States?” the Vermont Independent asked.

The resistance does not end in the Senate.

More than House 70 Democrats penned a letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) on Friday asking that the permitting reform legislation be omitted from the continuing resolution — a push against the side deal struck between Manchin and Schumer.

“The inclusion of these provisions in a continuing resolution, or any other must-pass legislation, would silence the voices of frontline and environmental justice communities by insulating them from scrutiny,” the lawmakers, led by Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), wrote.

If Schumer goes through with his plan and tacks permitting reform onto the continuing resolution, and if that stopgap passes through the Senate, progressives in the House would be faced with a tough decision: vote “no” and potentially trigger a government shutdown, or ignore misgivings about the legislation and vote “yes.”

Schumer could, however, play one more hand that would effectively force his colleagues on the left to support the measure despite their doubts: add a bill protecting marriage equality on the federal level to the continuing resolution.

But the majority leader and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), a sponsor of the marriage equality bill, have both said they prefer to hold a separate vote on the legislation.

Tensions between liberals and centrists will also likely bubble up over other agenda items.

Centrist House Democrats are expected to push hard for a vote on policing legislation that has been delayed twice because of disagreements with House liberals.

Pelosi punted a vote on the public safety bills last month, writing in a letter to colleagues that “conversations continue on finding consensus for a robust public safety package.”

Liberals had opposed increases for police funding across the country given the outcry over violence by police against minority communities.

But centrists running in tough races against the backdrop of Republicans decrying rising crime rates want to pass legislation that would provide more money for police.

The policing legislation was supposed to move in July with a bill to ban assault weapons, but Democratic leaders decided to separate the two measures to leave more time for consensus building.

But it’s far from clear that progress is being made.

As the negotiations over policing bills continue, moderates — especially Democrats facing difficult reelection races in November, known as “Frontliners” — are pushing for a vote to cinch a victory they can tout during the final weeks of campaigning.

“President Biden said best in his State of the Union address: the answer is not to defund the police. The answer is to fund the police with the resources and training they need to protect our communities,” one Frontliner told The Hill, speaking anonymously to talk about a sensitive topic.

“This legislation has passed every test, except among the loud few, and does right by our communities to ensure safety and accountability. With our majority on the line, Democrats need to put their money where their mouths are and pass this bill before November,” they added.

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Democrats find hope in Florida

Democrats are eyeing what they believe is an increasingly realistic path to victory in Florida’s marquee midterm races after months of hesitation over just how aggressively to contest the state this year.

The Sunshine State has proven elusive to Democrats in recent years; former President Trump carried it in both 2016 and 2020, Republicans have outpaced Democrats in voter registrations and the party has struggled with mounting losses among Latinos, a key constituency that Democrats once saw as a reliable voting bloc.

But recent polling has reignited Democratic interest in Florida, fueling hope among party operatives and officials that they just might be able to oust Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio (R) this year and reassert Florida’s reputation as a swing state.

“I don’t want to sound overly optimistic. We still have a lot of work to do,” said one Democratic consultant involved in key races in Florida. “But things are trending in the right direction.” 

Democrats got their latest boost this week from two new polls that suggest their top candidates may be starting to close the gap with DeSantis and Rubio. 

One, from Susquehanna Polling and Research, found Charlie Crist, the Democratic nominee for governor, trailing DeSantis by a narrow 4-point margin, within the survey’s margin of error. The same poll found Rep. Val Demings, the Democratic Senate nominee, running just 3 points behind Rubio. 

Another poll, commissioned by the AARP, put the match-ups even closer. DeSantis led Crist by just 3 points, while Rubio held a slim 2-point advantage over Demings, according to the survey, which was conducted by the GOP firm Fabrizio Ward and the Democratic firm Impact Research.

The recent bump for Crist and Demings dovetails with the momentum that has lifted Democrats in other key races across the country over the past two months. 

The Supreme Court’s decision over the summer to overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion rights case, has energized the party’s voters after a prolonged period of relative listlessness and given Democrats an outlet to cast Republicans as overly zealous when it comes to curbing individual liberties.

Thomas Kennedy, a Democratic National Committee member from Miami, said that argument may go particularly far in Florida, a state that has long been a refuge for abortion rights in the South. 

He also pointed to other examples of what Democrats say is DeSantis’s heavy-handed approach to governance: suspending a state attorney who pledged not to prosecute people for violating abortion restrictions, promoting legislation clamping down on protests and pushing a new congressional map that was seen by many as a blatant Republican gerrymander.

Meanwhile, Kennedy said, Democrats in Florida have positioned themselves as a force for less intrusive government.

“We’re in this weird dynamic where the Democrats here are the ones preaching small government and the right to privacy and for the government not to get involved in our personal lives,” Kennedy said.

Of course, the hurdles for Democrats are hard to ignore. 

DeSantis is deeply popular among Republicans, not just in Florida, but nationally, and has raised more than $130 million so far for his reelection campaign — far more than Crist, who is only a few weeks removed from a bitter primary fight against state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried.

The poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research that showed DeSantis leading Crist by only a few percentage points also found the governor’s favorability rating well above water. Crist’s favorability, on the other hand, stood in negative territory.

And while Demings has repeatedly outraised Rubio, the Republican senator still commands nearly twice as much cash on hand as she does. He also has a history of winning his races by margins often unheard-of in Florida statewide races. In 2016, for instance, he beat Democrat Patrick Murphy by 8 points — a landslide by Sunshine State standards.

There are also deeper issues plaguing Democrats in Florida. The state Democratic Party is still clawing its way back from the brink of financial ruin. The number of active voters registered with the GOP surpassed the number registered as Democrats for the first time in the state’s history late last year.

And there’s also the historical precedent that the party of a new president — in this case the Democrats — almost always suffer poor performances in midterm election years.

In one sign that some Democratic groups are still hesitant to put too much stock in Florida this year, many of the party’s largest donors and outside groups have held off on spending money in the state. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, for instance, spent tens of millions of dollars in the state in 2020, but has only given about $1 million to the state Democratic Party this year.

Likewise, Priorities USA, the largest Democratic super PAC, hasn’t announced any plans for Florida this year, despite spending heavily in other key battleground states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada.

“As of this moment, unless there’s huge outside support, we’re not going to see Democrats be able to keep up,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida.

Still, Democrats say that despite the challenges, Florida remains a key battleground. And as such, they have little choice but to contest it. 

“Florida suffers from a little bit of a bad reputation these days — and that’s probably well earned,” one national Democratic strategist said. “But we don’t get to pick and choose. It’s the third largest state in the country. We’ve got to compete, and national Democrats have to act like Florida is a swing state, because it definitely is.”

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