Remember how promising things looked for Republicans when summer was arriving? Remember how confident they were about the red wave that was supposed to wipe out Democrats in this fall’s midterms? They even threw in the word “tsunami” to make sure everyone knew what level of catastrophe was awaiting those woke lefties. Well, summer is now on the way out and a new reality is on the way in. Republicans aren’t feeling all that spunky anymore.
Even a column in the conservative Washington Examiner is asking, “Is the red wave already crashing?” Under that headline we get a political reality check: “The mood has shifted among Republicans over the past several weeks, from a sense of unbridled optimism to one of sober reflection about their chances for victory.”
So, if we’re to believe what passes for the prevailing wisdom, Democratic prospects for November have been miraculously resurrected. And, yes, it’s true that President Biden’s poll numbers have gone up recently — from abysmal to merely lousy.
And so, to what should we attribute this revival of Democratic fortunes (if that’s what it really is)? Well, there’s the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade in June, which we’re led to believe has fired up the enthusiasm of a lot of women voters.
When summer began, gasoline prices were heading north and Republicans were falling over each other trying to get in front of a TV camera to let everyone know it was all the fault of anti-fossil fuel Democrats. Now gasoline prices at the pump, while still historically high, are coming down — good news for the American consumer, but not so good for Republican politicians.
And there have been some legislative victories for the Democrats — laws that were designed to reduce gun violence and supposedly deal with both climate change and inflation at the same time. Going into the summer, Democratic voters were — let’s call it — underwhelmed. Now, who knows, they actually may be energized. The enthusiasm gap that was a chasm a few months ago may be shrinking as we approach fall.
And then, of course, there’s the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats: Donald Trump. He endorsed a slew of rookie (and some would say, less than scintillating) GOP Senate candidates in key battleground states who aren’t doing all that well at the moment. According to polls, they’re trailing in Pennsylvania and Arizona, and barely ahead in Georgia and Ohio, a state that has gone reliably red in recent years.
So now, with the midterms just two months away, you could make a case that it’s not looking especially good for Republicans to take over the Senate — and even the apparent rock-solid lead the GOP had in House races at the beginning of summer isn’t looking so rock-solid now that summer is waning.
For all this, the Democrats should send Donald Trump flowers and a gift basket filled with all sorts of goodies. If there ever has been another defeated U.S. president who has put his party’s electoral chances in such a precarious state, I don’t know who he is. Way to go, Mr. Former President.
But it’s only September and Republicans do have a few things working in their favor. We may already be in a recession, crime is still a big issue, and so is the non-stop influx of illegal immigrants at our southern border.
And now we have Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan, which may not even be legal. I can’t see how that’s going to play well with folks who scrimped and saved and paid off their student loans — or anyone who didn’t go to college and is wondering why he’s subsiding people who did.
In politics, two months is an eternity, and so, a lot can happen between now and November — and probably will. The raid at Trump’s resort in Florida is still big news and the House committee looking into his alleged role in the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol will resume hearings this month — just in time to influence how swing voters feel about our former president and Republicans in general.
And right on cue, just a few days ago, Trump took to social media to declare “the 2020 Election irreparably compromised.” He demanded that we “have a new Election, immediately!”
As I say, he’s the gift to Democrats that keeps on giving, which is why they want the midterm elections to be not about inflation or crime or illegal immigration but about Donald Trump. And knowing how much Trump craves being the center of attention, it’s not crazy to think he just might want the same thing.
Democrats can only hope. Republicans can only worry.
Bernard Goldberg is an Emmy and an Alfred I. duPont-Columbia University award-winning writer and journalist. He was a correspondent with HBO’s “Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel” for 22 years and previously worked as a reporter for CBS News and as an analyst for Fox News. He is the author of five books and publishes exclusive weekly columns, audio commentaries and Q&As on his Substack page. Follow him on Twitter @BernardGoldberg.
Source: TEST FEED1