Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) says he is exchanging materials with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) to help her better understand the broad tax reform and climate bill he negotiated with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and says he is open to her suggestions as Democrats seek 50 votes to put the bill on the floor.
Manchin finally got a chance to speak to Sinema after lunch Tuesday, when she was scheduled to preside over the chamber.
Manchin was tight-lipped about the details of the conversation but made clear that he’s willing to consider changes she might want to make to the deal, which would raise $739 billion in new revenue over the next decade and reduce the deficit by more than $300 billion.
“We had a nice time. We had a nice time. Next?” Manchin said Tuesday when reporters pressed him for details of his chat with Sinema while she sat at the Senate dais.
Asked again shed any light on whether Sinema will vote for the bill, which would give President Biden the biggest legislative victory of this first two years in office, Manchin said his colleague would make her own decision.
“We’re exchanging text back and forth,” he said. She’s “extremely bright, she works hard, she makes good decisions based on facts. I’m reliant on that.”
Manchin said Schumer is “working with all the caucus” to get buy-in from all 50 members to get the budget reconciliation bill to the floor later this week.
Even though Sinema played a major role in negotiating the prescription drug reform component of the bill and set the broad parameters of the tax chapter, she learned about the deal at the same time as all of her colleagues and the general public — through a press release.
Manchin said he’s open to considering changes suggested by Sinema, including on a proposal to close the carried interest tax loophole, one of his priorities.
“We’re just basically exchanging back and forth, whatever I have that she hasn’t seen. And our staffs are working together very closely,” he said, adding he’s also exchanging materials relevant to the bill with other Democratic and Republican senators.
Asked if he would be willing to change the bill’s carried interest provision, Manchin responded: “Everyone is still talking.”
But Manchin defended closing the loophole that allows money managers to pay capital gains tax rates on income they collect from managing profitable investments.
Asked whether Sinema is upset that she didn’t get looped into last week’s talks with Schumer, which produced the surprise deal, Manchin said he didn’t want to get any senator’s hopes up when he didn’t know whether an agreement was even possible.
“She’s my dear friend,” he said. “But why bring anyone in and all their aspirations get high and the drama we go through and it doesn’t work out?
“I wasn’t really sure” a deal could be reached, he said. “I’m not in control of the timing” of the announcement of the deal, “Sen. Schumer is in control of the timing.”
“People getting mad because they think this is some kind of orchestrated coup against them is just so wrong,” he added.
When it comes to fighting the climate crisis, we’ve long known what the solutions are — it’s finding the funding to jump-start them that’s been the bigger challenge. The Inflation Reduction Act proposed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) offers historic investments in clean energy, electric vehicles and other measures that, if passed, would be the most ambitious climate legislation in U.S. history. It would also put the national goal of cutting U.S. emissions in half by 2030 within striking distance.
The bill includes many provisions that would leverage federal government support of critical clean energy technologies to reduce household costs, increase energy security and bolster supply chains that can help accelerate global decarbonization. To see how, let’s examine just one of these technologies: heat pumps, a solution that more states and cities are considering to reduce building emissions.
Replacing fossil fuel-powered heating and cooling systems in buildings with heat pumps — which, contrary to their name, not only efficiently warm buildings in cold weather but also function as air conditioners in summer — is a major way that households can fight climate change and save money. Even when it’s cold outside the air contains some heat, and heat pumps are able to use thermodynamics to convert each unit of electrical energy into several units of heat energy, making them more efficient than oil and gas-powered furnaces. While in cooling mode, heat pumps operate like traditional air conditioners. As many who have recently sweltered in heat waves in Europe and the Pacific Northwest can attest, having a home energy system that saves energy overall with the added benefit of a “cooling” setting in places that never previously needed it is a major benefit as the climate changes. Importantly, if the electricity used to run the heat pump comes from clean sources, there are no carbon emissions, something that is impossible to achieve with an oil or gas furnace.
According to the International Energy Agency, the number of heat pumps used worldwide must more than triple by 2030 in order for the planet to be on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. But while heat pumps are commonly used in places like Japan and Norway, and their sales are ramping up in the U.S., their adoption here still faces many barriers. Heat pumps remain quite expensive to install, and historically there have been few incentives for builders, contractors and homeowners to do so.
In June, President Biden invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) to boost manufacturing for heat pumps (among other energy technologies), but the move didn’t come with significant funding. The proposed Inflation Reduction Act would remedy that by providing $500 million specifically to fund heat pump actions under the DPA. It also provides a consumer tax credit of up to $2,000 for the installation of residential heat pumps, as well as a rebate program of up to $8,000 for low-income households.
There are many ways this money could accelerate heat pump adoption by increasing both supply and demand. On the demand side, the federal government could use the money to purchase heat pumps (and pay for their installation) in public buildings. It could also purchase and directly distribute them or sell them at low cost to low-income homeowners who otherwise could not afford to install them.
The DPA can increase heat pump supply by subsidizing and accelerating manufacturing, which will create jobs in addition to making more heat pumps available on the market (and thus helping to reduce prices). Energy efficiency is already one of the biggest drivers of employment in the energy sector, and as demand for heat pumps grows, jobs related to their manufacture and installation will increase as well.
This national effort comes on the heels of related local commitments, such as San José, California’s ban of gas hookups in new buildings, which essentially requires that heat pumps be installed instead. Many other cities are adopting similar policies. At the state level, California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) recently announced target of installing 6 million heat pumps by 2030 will further incentivize heat pump installation on a large scale.
There’s still more that must be done to complement the DPA and accelerate heat pump adoption in the United States. For example, the Department of Energy could issue efficiency standards for electric heaters that would set a minimum efficiency rate that would essentially make heat pumps a requirement. This would take time and would require factoring in what level standards are both feasible and economical, but it would be a strong regulatory action that would lead to real results.
In addition, more HVAC technicians and contractors must be trained in the benefits and installation of heat pumps. This will make them more likely to recommend them to their clients, who are often trying to replace a broken heating or cooling system as quickly as possible and are therefore inclined to adopt whatever the professional recommends.
But the most important thing Congress can do right now — to boost heat pump adoption in tandem with a slew of other crucial climate actions — is to pass the Inflation Reduction Act. Heat pumps may sound like magic, but they are a real and essential solution to provide more Americans with comfortable, affordable and climate-friendly homes.
Blake Masters, who is running for the Republican nomination to the U.S. Senate from Arizona, walks to the stage to speak prior to former President Donald Trump speech at a Save America rally Friday, July 22, 2022, in Prescott, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday leading up to November’s election.
The August primaries are finally here and first on the roster are Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, Kansas and Washington. (Voters in Ohio are set to choose their nominees for local and state offices, as well). Here’s a state-by-state breakdown of what to look for when results start rolling in tonight.
Arizona: The marquee race here is the GOP gubernatorial primary, in which former Vice President Mike Pence and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) have pitted themselves against former President Trump. Pence and Ducey are backing developer Karrin Taylor Robson in the nominating contest, while Trump has endorsed former local TV anchor Kari Lake, turning the race into a proxy war between competing GOP heavyweights — and their respective factions of the party. Trump is also backing venture capitalist Blake Masters in the Republican Senate primary and recent polling shows him as the heavy favorite to win tonight.
Michigan: Republicans are set to choose their nominee to take on Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). The current frontrunner in the primary is Tudor Dixon, who has the support of the wealthy DeVos family — including former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos — and Trump. Still, the primary has been mired in chaos for months. The party’s two strongest candidates were removed from the ballot earlier this year after submitting nominating petitions that included what election officials said were thousands of forged signatures. At the same time, two other candidates — Kevin Rinke and Ryan Kelley — are contending with their own controversies. Kelley, is facing misdemeanor charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol while Rinke has come under fire for decades-old lawsuits alleging he made sexual and racist comments to employees. The question is whether the eventual nominee can emerge from the primary in a strong enough position to beat Whitmer in November.
We’re also watching the GOP primary in Michigan’s 3rd District, where freshman Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.), one of 10 House Republicans who voted last year to impeach Trump, is facing a primary challenge from former Assistant Housing and Urban Development Secretary John Gibbs. Trump is backing Gibbs in that race.
Oh, and don’t forget the member-on-member primary matchup between Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and Andy Levin (D-Mich.) in Michigan’s 11th District.
Missouri: The Republican Senate primary in Missouri has been among the closest-watched in the country this year for a few reasons: Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) isn’t running for reelection, leaving the seat open, and Eric Greitens, the former Missouri governor who resigned in disgrace four years ago, is running to replace him. Greitens led in the polls for much of the past year, though more recent surveys have shown him slipping behind Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Mo.). His sinking poll numbers appear to be due in no small part to a late effort by anti-Greitens groups to weaken the former governor through a series of damaging ads. The concern among many Republicans is that a Greitens win on Tuesday could potentially cost them the seat in November.
Trump also injected some chaos into the race at the last minute, announcing on Monday that he was endorsing an unspecified “ERIC” in the primary. Both Greitens and Schmitt have claimed the endorsement as their own, though it’s unclear whom Trump is actually backing.
Kansas: The most consequential vote taking place in Kansas on Tuesday isn’t in a primary, but rather on a proposed amendment to the state constitution. Voters will decide the fate of Amendment 2, which would add language to the constitution saying it doesn’t grant the right to abortion. This would effectively reverse a 2019 state Supreme Court decision and put access to the procedure in the hands of the state’s Republican-controlled legislature. The vote is getting particularly close attention, because it will be the first time since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade that voters will make a decision on abortion rights. It also could have an impact on residents of nearby states with more abortion restrictions who may be looking to Kansas as an option to receive the procedure.
Washington state: Two more House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump last year for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot are set to face voters on Tuesday: Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse. Both are facing Trump-backed primary challengers; Herrera Beutler’s main rival is Republican Joe Kent, while Newhouse’s biggest competition comes from Loren Culp. Of course, Washington State features a jungle primary system in which the top two finishers advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. That could give Herrera Beutler and Newhouse some room to court moderates and independents in order to build a winning coalition.
First in The Hill: Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) is preparing a $20 million ad blitz this fall as part of his bid to oust Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his campaign tells Max. The biggest chunks of money are going to the Tampa, Miami and Orlando media markets, but the campaign is still planning to spend more than $2 million in North Florida, a less vote-heavy area for Democrats.
Of course, Crist still has to make it through a primary; he’s up against state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried in the state’s Aug. 23 nominating contest. And then there’s DeSantis, who is among the best-funded governors running for reelection this year. He’s already raised more than $100 million for his reelection – a figure more in line with a top-tier presidential campaign than a gubernatorial bid.
Another first: End Citizens United, a political action committee, is rolling out a $2 million ad buy in Pennsylvania hitting celebrity physician Mehmet Oz, the Republican Senate nominee in the state, over his ties to the pharmaceutical industry. It also takes a swipe at his ties to New Jersey, dubbing him “Jersey Oz.” (Remember, Oz moved to Pennsylvania not long before announcing his Senate campaign and still owns a home in New Jersey).
POLL WATCH
We have a new batch of Harvard CAPS/Harris polling out and let’s just say it shows some mixed results for Democrats this year, as well as some good news for those hoping for a DeSantis 2024 run.
Watch the debrief on this week’s polling with The Hill’s Bob Cusack talking with co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey Mark Penn here, or listen to it here.
Here’s a few quick takeaways:
The generic ballot: Democrats and Republicans are tied 50-50 on the generic ballot question, which asks voters whether they plan to support a Democrat or Republican for Congress this fall. That’s a slight uptick for Democrats. The same poll from May showed the GOP with a slight 2-point edge on the question.
The 2024 primary: Trump has long remained the favorite to win the GOP’s 2024 nomination, and that’s still the case in the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. In a hypothetical eight-way primary for the GOP’s 2024 nod, Trump is far and away the front-runner, scoring 52 percent support. Trailing in a distant second is DeSantis at 19 percent. Of course, if Trump’s not on the ballot, DeSantis takes the top spot with 34 percent support.
Jan. 6 fallout: A majority — 54 percent — of voters believe that Trump should face criminal charges for his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. At the same time, however, 69 percent also said that the country should move on from the attack on the Capitol, while 54 percent said that Trump should still be allowed to run for president again, regardless of what transpired on Jan. 6, 2021.
Rep. Rick Allen (R-Ga.) introduced legislation Tuesday aiming to boost startups and small businesses across the country by expanding access to training programs and resources for entrepreneurs.
The Startup Act would amend the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act — a 2014 law that helps job seekers access training and matches them with employers — by adopting language that includes entrepreneurs to give them similar resources.
The legislation would also authorize the Department of Labor to conduct a three-year, multi-state study to analyze entrepreneurial skill development programs and how they affect the economy.
Allen, who founded a construction company in Georgia before he was elected to office in 2014, said after spending nearly four decades operating a small business, he knows “how federal policies impact entrepreneurs and job creators.”
“I am proud to lead this effort to help current and future entrepreneurs access the resources they need to create jobs, grow our economy, and realize the American Dream,” Allen said in a statement.
There were roughly 31.7 million small businesses in the U.S. as of 2017, according to the Small Business Administration‘s Office of Advocacy. Small businesses, defined as having less than 500 employees, comprised 47 percent of all private sector employees and 40 percent of private sector payroll at that time.
The COVID-19 pandemic took a huge financial toll on small businesses, particularly those run by minority and women owners. The current economy, which many fear may have hit a recession, is also creating financial difficulties for business owners.
Startups often face obstacles even without high inflation and a pandemic. The 15-year survival rate for a small business was 25.7 percent from 1994 to 2018, according to the Office of Advocacy.
Several key industry groups have backed the Startup Act, including the Center for American Entrepreneurship, the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council and Make Startups.
Eric Parker, the president of Make Startups, said the legislation was pertinent during uncertain times in the economy because “tremendous numbers of entrepreneurs in our communities, both urban and rural, are facing poverty while trying to start their business.”
“The Startup Act will remove barriers and help provide them with equitable access to training and support from our workforce system,” Parker said in a statement.
An Ohio man on Tuesday in Washington, D.C., pleaded guilty to obstruction of an official proceeding for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
According to a release from the D.C. U.S. Attorney’s Office, 55-year-old John Douglas Wright helped 100 people travel to the capital on two charter buses he owned. According to the statement of offense Wright signed in his plea agreement, he charged travelers $50 to make the trip on his buses.
After parking the buses at Union Station, a few blocks from the Capitol building, Wright — wearing a “Trump Pence 2020” hoodie — and the others he had traveled with breached the Capitol grounds, where a joint session of Congress was meeting to certify the 2020 presidential electoral college votes.
The Canton, Ohio, man is facing as many as 20 years in prison for his actions during the breach, which the U.S. Attorney for D.C. said included pushing against federal law enforcement in an attempt to knock down a metal barricade outside the Capitol.
Wright entered the building and streamed a live video to Facebook as he walked through the Capitol Rotunda. After posting the video, but before exiting the building, he smoked a cigarette.
In the days leading up to and shortly after the Jan. 6 attack, Wright posted on social media in all-caps commentary on the plans, according to his plea agreement.
“IT’S F—ING WAR TIME,” Wright reportedly said on his Facebook account. “THE FIRST MISTAKE WE MAKE IN CHAMBERS WE ARE GOING IN AND DRAG THEM OUT.”
“YESTERDAY WAS A PRACTICE RUN.”
Arrested in early May, Wright is now set for sentencing on November 28.
According to the release, over 850 individuals have been arrested in connection with the Jan. 6 attacks in the year and a half since. Wright’s case is being prosecuted by the U.S. Attorney for D.C. and the Department of Justice’s National Security Division, and being investigated by an FBI field office in Ohio.
Senate Democrats and Republicans have reached an agreement to pass legislation expanding benefits for veterans who are suffering illnesses due to toxic exposures, with a vote on the measure expected Tuesday evening.
“We expect to have an agreement on the PACT Act with amendments,” Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said. “I believe it will pass and pass this evening. So, that’s very good news.”
Schumer said that the senate will vote on three amendments to the bill, with 60 votes being needed to pass those bills. The upper chamber will then move to finally pass the bill.
The deal will also allow the upper chamber to vote on Finland and Sweden joining NATO on Friday.
The agreement comes as Republicans have been trying to find a way to end a standoff over the bill after blocking the measure by a vote of 55-42 last Wednesday.
Twenty-five Republicans who initially voted to advance the bill in June changed their votes.
Veterans have been camped outside the Capitol since last Thursday in a bid to pressure Senators to change their minds on the measure.
The upper chamber passed the bill by a vote of 84-14 in June, and the House last month passed the bill by a 342-88 vote.
Republicans have said they are not opposed the original substance of the bill, but rather a “budgetary gimmick” that would designate $400 billion spent by the Department of Veterans’ Affairs as mandatory spending. This spending would not be subject to annual appropriations process like discretionary spending.
Earlier on Tuesday, Rep. Jerry Moran (R-Kansas), the top Republican on the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee, told reporters that Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) had been offered amendments on the bill. But 60 votes are needed to pass them.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement on Tuesday condemning U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) trip to Taiwan, saying it “gravely undermines peace and stability.”
“It gravely undermines peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and sends a seriously wrong signal to the separatist forces for ‘Taiwan independence,’” said the ministry of Pelosi’s trip.
Pelosi confirmed her arrival in Taiwan earlier Tuesday with a statement honoring “America’s unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant Democracy.”
“America’s solidarity with the 23 million people of Taiwan is more important today than ever, as the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy,” said Pelosi.
The Chinese foreign affairs ministry called the trip “a serious violation of the one-China principle and the provisions of the three China-U.S. joint communiqués,” adding that it will have “a severe impact on the political foundation of China-U.S. relations.”
The Chinese government argued in its statement, published by the official news outlet of the country’s military, that the U.S. is bound by a 1979 commitment in its Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations with China.
The communiqué recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China “as the sole legal Government of China.”
“Within this context, the people of the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan,” the document reads.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian warned last month that a visit from Pelosi to Taiwan would infringe on the so-called “one-China policy” and that China would take “resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity” if the visit proceeded.
“These moves, like playing with fire, are extremely dangerous,” wrote the Foreign Ministry after Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan, adding the warning: “Those who play with fire will perish by it.”
“China will definitely take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity in response to the U.S. Speaker’s visit,” the ministry concluded.
China announced new plans on Tuesday to conduct large-scale military drills around Taiwan for four days beginning on Sunday.
Researchers used records from the national Health and Retirement Study for the years 1992-2016, analyzing data from 2,879 individuals born between 1936 and 1941.
The team then created three categories to classify wage histories based on earnings between 1992 and 2004 before examining the relationship between wages and memory decline over the next 12 years.
Compared to workers who never earned low wages, those whose earnings were consistently low experienced a faster memory decline equaling about one excess year of cognitive aging, according to the study.
People who work for persistently low wages may experience a faster decline in memory later in life, according to a new study.
“Our research provides new evidence that sustained exposure to low wages during peak earning years is associated with accelerated memory decline later in life,” said Katrina Kezios, a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Epidemiology at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health and first author.
Researchers used records from the national Health and Retirement Study for the years 1992-2016, analyzing data from data from 2,879 individuals born between 1936 and 1941.
The team then created three categories to classify wage histories based on earnings between 1992 and 2004 before examining the relationship between wages and memory decline over the next 12 years.
Compared to workers who never earned low wages, those whose earnings were consistently low experienced a faster memory decline equaling about one excess year of cognitive aging, according to the study.
The findings were presented Tuesday at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference 2022 Promoting Diverse Perspectives: Addressing Health Disparities Related to Alzheimer’s and All Dementias.
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“Our findings suggest that social policies that enhance the financial well-being of low-wage workers may be especially beneficial for cognitive health,” said senior author Adina Zeki Al Hazzouri, an assistant professor of epidemiology at Columbia University.
“Future work should rigorously examine the number of dementia cases and excess years of cognitive aging that could be prevented under different hypothetical scenarios that would increase the minimum hourly wage.”
The federal minimum wage has been $7.25 per hour since 2009, according to the research.
Total household debt for Americans has risen to a record $16 trillion, according to a report from The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as Amerians grapple with inflation and rising costs.
“Americans are borrowing more, but a big part of the increased borrowing is attributable to higher prices,” NY Fed researchers wrote in a blog post accompanying the report, released Tuesday.
The total rose 2 percent between the first and second quarters of 2022, or about $312 billion. This year’s $16.15 trillion household debt dollar amount is $2 trillion higher than what was recorded in pre-pandemic 2019.
Increases in mortgage and auto loan debt are reactive to rising home and auto costs, the researchers wrote, and the uptick in credit card debt shows the effect of inflation.
Mortgage balances were the biggest contributor to the $2 trillion increase, rising by $207 billion to $11.39 trillion total. Auto loans rose by $33 billion.
Credit card balances went up by $46 billion, one of the largest recorded by the NY Fed since 1999, “at least partly reflecting inflation on consumer goods and services purchased using credit cards,” the researchers wrote.
Non-housing balances — including credit card, auto and student loan debts — saw the largest increase since 2016, up by $103 billion.
The NY Fed reported student loan balances, at around $1.59 trillion, didn’t much fluctuate from the first quarter.
The report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York drew from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of Equifax credit report data.
The Biden administration’s counterterrorism efforts bore fruit yesterday with the targeting and killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri — al Qaeda’s leader — in a drone strike in Afghanistan.
But the U.S. government’s next counterterrorism steps should build on this success. An ongoing shadow war in Afghanistan provides the best opportunity to prevent a major terror attack on the U.S. homeland, and Panjshiri tribal spies can help.
In many ways, history has come full circle in Afghanistan, with opposition fighters based in the Panjshir Valley combatting the Taliban. The United States should reinvest in new ways to develop human intelligence in order to counter resurgent jihadists in Afghanistan. Importantly, that is precisely what the U.S. is signaling it might do next, and what is necessary, given both the ignominious U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last year and worries of a rising jihadist threat left behind to metastasize — despite the death of al-Zawahiri.
This month marks a year since the United States departed from Afghanistan, and relevantly, this Sept. 11 will commemorate 21 years since the devastating terrorist attacks. But for Panjshiris, September is another important anniversary, the Sept. 9, 2001 assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud— two days before al Qaeda’s devastating 9/11 attacks. Deceitfully, an al Qaeda assassination team posed as journalists to interview the charismatic Massoud, a respected guerrilla commander, and then they subsequently detonated their explosives killing him. Two days later, al Qaeda executed their self-proclaimed “Manhattan Raid” on Sept. 11, 2001. There is a renewed significance of next month’s 9/9 anniversary because the anti-Taliban movement is now being led by Ahmad Massoud — the son of assassinated resistance leader Ahmed Shah Massoud.
Panjshir has long been an anti-Taliban stronghold. Massoud’s mujahedeen fighters are known as the National Resistance Front (NRF) and are mostly made up of former Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. Their localized insurgency against the Taliban is making progress this “fighting season.” In June, for example, a senior Taliban commander named Azizullah Asifi and eight of his fighters reportedly defected from the Taliban and joined the NRF. Defectors are often valuable sources of human intelligence. By the NRF deftly publicizing Asifi’s claims of Taliban oppression and cruelty, the resistance helps further erode Taliban legitimacy.
All of this leaves a key policy option for the U.S. that opportunistically springs from this ongoing secret war and could help prevent the resurgence of jihadists in Afghanistan because the Taliban cannot be trusted. By providing sanctuary to al-Zawahiri, the Taliban violated their pledge not to allow international terrorist groups to operate within their territory. This means the United States is going to need to increase its human intelligence-collection capabilities in Afghanistan. Put simply, the United States must throw its weight behind a partnership with the National Resistance Front and other anti-Taliban partners.
First, human intelligence is the harvest and byproduct of any insurgency. With or without the U.S., the NRF will wage a local insurgency in Afghanistan against the Taliban, and the U.S. needs to tap into their intelligence. This means supporting the anti-Taliban insurgency, if only by replicating the kind of special operations unconventional support that is apparently happening in Ukraine, whereby a network of spies is reportedly coordinating the flow of intelligence.
Second, the Panjshiris in the NRF that I’ve talked to are hopeful that down the line they will be positioned to make positive political changes in Afghanistan. More importantly, local NRF insurgent gains on the ground could provide geographical contiguous space in Afghanistan for internal migration — a safe zone — that can offer alternatives to draconian Taliban rule, and perhaps even a new social contract with the Afghan people.
It’s worth recalling that early in the Trump administration when the Afghanistan strategy was unveiled in August 2017, it reflected an approach that was very much seen through a counterterrorism lens. The key theme for counterterrorism options at the time necessitated a strategic framework to protect the U.S. homeland by attacking terrorists like ISIS and al Qaeda in their safe havens. In policy circles, it was viewed as an article of faith that preventing the Taliban from taking over the government by force in Kabul would be baked into any future strategy on Afghanistan. Preventing mass terror attacks against Americans prior to their emergence was the overarching driver for U.S. counterterrorism policy.
Since there is zero evidence that the Taliban have taken measures to limit the activities of foreign terrorists in Afghanistan, it’s necessary to re-scope human intelligence to support counterterrorism efforts. Even though the drone strike on Ayman al-Zawahiri took place without U.S. troops on the ground to collect human intelligence, the operation validated that an “over the horizon capability” can be effective. Still, a long-term intelligence partnership with anti-Taliban insurgents hedges U.S. bets for tracking and reporting on terrorists when the Taliban won’t do it.
Having spent several years both executing and overseeing human intelligence operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and also serving at U.S. Central Command and its sub-unified command, Special Operations Command Central, my take away from those experiences is straightforward: The very manner in which the U.S. manages its human intelligence activities is crucial for preventing terrorist attacks. I observed firsthand in Afghanistan that tribal-indigenous partners like the NRF can be cultivated into successful and discreet intelligence partners that support U.S. counterterrorism objectives.
It’s quixotic to expect that the resistance in Afghanistan will overthrow the Taliban militarily in the short term, but they may very well satisfy concessions like power sharing and providing more space for greater political autonomy for the Panjshiris and other tribes, similar to what the Kurds are still fighting for in Syria. Compounding Taliban rule is infighting and ideological splits that are beginning to show. Still, this insurgency could eventually lead to some kind of coexistence between Panjshiri insurgents and the Taliban.
The U.S. cannot weaken its counterterrorism resolve, even with the success of the drone strike that killed al-Zawahiri. The United States must remain relentless in its pursuit of intelligence on al Qaeda’s next generation of leaders in Afghanistan — wherever their hiding or being protected by the Taliban.
Christopher P. Costa is the executive director of the International Spy Museum and an adjunct associate professor with Georgetown University’s, School of Foreign Service. He is a former career intelligence officer and was special assistant to the president and senior director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council from 2017 to 2018.
