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On The Money — Recession watch keeps getting complicated

The economy is probably shrinking, according to federal data, but that may not mean we’re in recession. We’ll also look at progress on the semiconductor bill and a pending decision on student loan relief. 

But first, a Russian eviction from space. 

Welcome to On The Money, your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line. For The Hill, we’re Sylvan Lane, Aris Folley and Karl Evers-Hillstrom. Someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here.

Why the GDP decline may not mean a recession

The Biden administration is ramping up messaging that two quarters of negative growth do not mean a recession, bracing Americans for a likely tough economic report on Thursday. 

Economists say new federal data could show U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) shrinking between April and June, marking the second straight quarter of contraction. That will likely fuel concerns that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession — if it hasn’t already. 

“One quarter can just happen for weird quirky reasons,” Matt Darling, employment policy fellow at the Niskanen Center think tank, said in an interview. “But when two or three happen, you’re like, ‘OK, there’s something going on there.’” 

The background: President Biden and White House officials are attempting to avert the political blowback of a recession with the midterm elections just a few months away and are also aiming to prevent a bigger knock on the economy from Americans starting to act like there is a recession. 

• Economists turn to the National Bureau for Economic Research (NBER), a think tank not affiliated with the federal government, to officially determine when the U.S. is in recession.  
• A special committee at NBER bases those decisions on a wide range of economic data beyond the GDP reports, including job growth and layoff data. 
• It can be difficult to know if a recession is occurring until it’s already started, which adds to the stakes and intrigue around the Thursday GDP report. But even as growth slows, the labor market is flashing signs of an economy far from hitting a recession. 

Alex Gangitano and Sylvan have more here.

CHIPS IN

Senate advances bill to boost domestic semiconductor industry 

The Senate voted 64 to 32 on Tuesday to advance legislation to provide $52 billion to the domestic semiconductor industry, $81 billion to the National Science Foundation and a 25 percent investment tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing.   

The vote brings the semiconductor bill closer to the finish line after more than a year of negotiations. 

• The bill won’t include a package of trade provisions negotiated by senators last year or more aggressive measures to crack down on Beijing passed by House Democrats. 
• Senators said that the bill is needed to shore up U.S. supply chains and reduce dependence on Asia for microchips that are used in cars, appliances, weapon systems and electronics. 

“A big reason for the inflation we see today is decades of offshoring our supply chains. We need to bring that production back home,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). “That’s what this bill is all about, investing more in America, making more in America.”  

Read more here.

DECISION SOON?

White House says Biden will make decision on student loans 

The White House said on Tuesday that President Biden is mulling whether to extend the pause on federal student loan payments and whether to forgive student loans on a broader scale ahead of a pandemic-related moratorium on payments that are set to resume on Aug. 31. 

“He’ll make a decision,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said. “I’ll let him speak.”  

• Speculation around another pause on payments heated up after The Wall Street Journal reported that student loan servicing contractors have been told to not send billing statements. 
• A Department of Education spokesperson told The Hill that the administration is still assessing whether to extend the payment pause but that borrowers will be communicated with “directly” about the end to a freeze. 

Here’s more from Alex Gangitano.

SHUTDOWN LOOMS

Senate Dems set to roll out funding bills as shutdown threat approaches 

Senate Democrats are preparing to unveil sweeping legislation in the days ahead on how to keep the government running for the next fiscal year, even as negotiators already write off chances of the chamber’s annual appropriations bills passing by the current Sept. 30 deadline to avoid a shutdown.  

Negotiators say they’re on track to release appropriations bills this week in the upper chamber, after months of hearings and as the House has already passed half of the dozen annual funding bills in recent weeks.  

But with roughly two months to go, a lack of an agreement on a top-line number, disagreements over defense funding and prickly legislative riders in areas like abortion mean appropriators have their work cut out for them.  

Aris has the details here.

Good to Know

Sens. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) introduced legislation on Tuesday that would exempt small crypto purchases from a capital gains tax. 

The pair of lawmakers introduced a bill that would offer an exemption for personal transactions using cryptocurrency of less than $50 or personal transactions that have gains of under $50 from being subject to a capital gains tax. 

Here’s what else we have our eye on: 

• Consumer confidence slipped for the third straight month in July as sky-high prices dampened demand for products and services, according to a new survey. 
• Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Tuesday that the prescription drug reform proposal that Democrats plan to move under special budget reconciliation rules is “weak,” noting it covers a limited number of drugs and doesn’t substantially take effect until 2026.  
• Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) wrote a letter to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg urging him to crack down on the airline industry as it experiences delays, cancellations and high prices.

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Finance page for the latest news and coverage. We’ll see you tomorrow.

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Health Care — Wyden floats longer extension of health subsidies

RIP to the Choco Taco. Klondike announced Monday it was discontinuing the iconic ice cream treat, taking a bit of our childhoods with it. 

On Capitol Hill, the Senate Finance Committee chairman wants a longer extension of ObamaCare subsidies in Democrats’ health bill— but it’s not clear if Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) will agree.  

Welcome to Overnight Health Care, where we’re following the latest moves on policy and news affecting your health. For The Hill, we’re Peter Sullivan, Nathaniel Weixel and Joseph Choi. Someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here.

Senator suggests longer ObamaCare extension

A key Democratic senator is floating a way to get more into Democrats’ big health care bill.  

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) on Tuesday said he is calling for a longer extension of enhanced ObamaCare financial assistance, and floated increased IRS tax enforcement as a potential way to pay for it.  

Wyden told reporters that he is pushing for “the longest possible premium relief for people.” 

• The party-line health care measure that Democrats are preparing was recently expected to have just a two-year extension of the enhanced subsidies, which give people extra help in affording their premiums for Affordable Care Act plans. The extra subsidies are currently slated to expire at the end of this year.  
• But there has been increasing talk of trying for a longer extension, which would also avoid setting up a cliff before the 2024 presidential election.  

Wyden, while stopping short of explicitly saying he was pushing to link the ideas, noted that additional funding for the IRS to increase enforcement against “wealthy tax cheats” could raise $120 billion. 

The big question: It remains unclear if Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) would agree to include the IRS enforcement proposal in the bill, or to provide longer ObamaCare subsidies. A Manchin spokesperson declined to comment. 

Read more here.

Top FDA tobacco official leaving post for Philip Morris job

A top official in the Food and Drug Administration’s office of tobacco policy is leaving to join Philip Morris International, one of the world’s largest tobacco companies, according to an internal agency memo. 

Matt Holman, director of the Center for Tobacco Products (CTP) Office of Science, will be leaving the agency effective immediately, according to the memo from CTP director Brian King.  

Holman has been director of the science office since 2017. 

The FDA is facing a series of major tobacco-related decisions in the coming weeks and months, including a potential ban on menthol cigarettes, lowering nicotine levels, as well as the next step in its ongoing attempt to regulate Juul and other electronic cigarettes. 

Recused: According to the memo, Holman has been on leave and has recused himself from all CTP/FDA work while exploring career opportunities outside of government.  

In a statement to The Hill, the FDA would not say when Holman’s recusal began. 

• “We can say that in this instance, once the agency was made aware by Dr. Holman of his intention to explore new career opportunities, consistent with government ethics rules, he was recused from all tobacco-related regulatory decision making at the agency,” an FDA spokeswoman said.  

Read more here.

FAUCI: MONKEYPOX DECLARATION UNDER ‘ACTIVE CONSIDERATION’ 

White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci told CNN “New Day” on Tuesday that making an emergency declaration around monkeypox is under “active consideration.” 

“That’s something that’s obviously under active consideration,” Fauci, also the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said when “New Day” anchor John Berman asked him about an emergency declaration for the virus. 

His assessment: Fauci said of the response to monkeypox overall: “We’re doing well, but we’ve got to do much better.” 

Monkeypox primarily affects men who have sex with men, according to Fauci, but can be more concerning in those already diagnosed with viral infections such as HIV. 

“There’s an entire layered group of people who are at risk,” Fauci said, emphasizing that vaccination against monkeypox should spread beyond the group of people who have already been exposed to the virus. 

Read more here.

NYC MONKEYPOX INFECTIONS SURPASS 1,000

More than 1,000 cases of monkeypox were reported in New York City with cases still rising as the city continues to manage the outbreak. 

The New York City Health Department said as of Monday, 1,040 people have been infected with monkeypox, with more cases likely not diagnosed. The department noted that cases are still rising. 

• The city has ramped up testing since the outbreak as the department urges anyone with possible symptoms see a health care provider for testing. Residents without a health care provider can also call 311. 
• While health experts are recommending a two-dose vaccine to protect against the virus, appointments in New York City are filled as the vaccine supply is low. 

As of Monday, the state of New York had the most reported cases of monkeypox in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

“We’re grateful for the World Health Organization’s recognition that monkeypox is a global emergency. In New York City, the outbreak has been a local emergency for weeks and we are putting every resource we have to stopping the spread,” NYC Health Commissioner Ashwin Vasan tweeted Monday. 

Read more here.

Biden illness shows importance of vaccines, boosters

Just four days after testing positive for COVID-19, President Biden met virtually with administration officials, labor leaders and business executives on legislation to boost the domestic semiconductor industry on Monday afternoon.   

His voice a bit raspy, Biden told reporters he is feeling “great” and hoped to be back to work in person by the end of the week.   

Biden is at risk for serious illness due to his age, but that is counteracted by the fact he is up-to-date with his vaccinations — he received his second booster dose in March — and is taking an antiviral treatment known as Paxlovid. 

Biden’s public appearance — his second since testing positive last Thursday — sent a signal to Americans that a 79-year-old person who contracts the virus can weather the sickness relatively easily because of vaccines and booster doses.  

“They can use the president as a case,” said Anand Parekh, chief medical adviser at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “He’s using all these tools.”  

A sign of the times: Biden’s case has been a sober reminder that the pandemic is not over. But at the same time, it’s also a sign of the progress the world has made since the first known case of COVID-19 in 2019.   

When former President Trump contracted the virus almost two years ago, there were no approved vaccines. The antiviral pill Paxlovid was more than a year from being authorized by the Food and Drug Administration. 

Read more here.

WHAT WE’RE READING

• How polio crept back into the U.S. (ProPublica) 
• Encouraged by right-wing doctor groups, desperate patients turn to ivermectin for long Covid (Stat)  
• Reformulated COVID vaccine boosters may be available earlier than expected (NPR)

STATE BY STATE

• NC Medicaid expansion deal still at impasse between Republican legislative chambers (News & Observer) 
• As monkeypox spread in New York, 300,000 vaccine doses sat in Denmark (New York Times) 
• No cases of monkeypox in Alaska yet, but health officials are readying for the disease’s arrival (Alaska Public Radio)

That’s it for today, thanks for reading. Check out The Hill’s Health Care page for the latest news and coverage. See you tomorrow.

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Biden administration launches Heat.gov website as heatwave hits country

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NotedDC — Pence draws Trump contrast with focus on future

Former Vice President Mike Pence is urging GOP voters to not “look back,” but don’t count on former President Trump to heed that advice anytime soon.

Pence subtly jabbed at Trump and his false claims about the 2020 election while addressing a conference of young conservatives in Washington on Tuesday, saying Republicans “need to do more than criticize and complain” to win future elections.

“I truly do believe that elections are about the future, and that it’s absolutely essential at a time when so many Americans are hurting, so many families are struggling, that we don’t give way to the temptation to look back,” Pence said.

Just hours after Pence spoke and urged Republicans to not meditate on the past, Trump delivered his own speech at another venue in Washington and did just that.

“The radical left’s anti-police narrative is a total lie…let’s call it the ‘Big Lie,’” Trump said about 20 minutes into his speech at the America First Policy Institute summit.

“Have you ever heard that expression before? The Big Lie,” Trump continued to loud applause from the friendly crowd.

“I like to say I ran the first time and I won and then I ran a second time and did much better,” Trump declared later in the speech.

“That’s going to be a story for a long time, what a disgrace that was.”

Pence and several other Republicans laying the groundwork for potential presidential bids in 2024 have taken pains to try to contrast themselves from Trump while being careful not to upset the GOP base that still strongly supports the former president.

Trump’s grip on the party was evident throughout his speech Tuesday as he promoted the GOP’s midterm candidates and teased another White House run.

“We may just have to do it again,” Trump said about being president, adding of his critics: “They want to damage me so I can no longer go back to work for you.”

Welcome to NotedDC: Your guide to politics, policy & people of consequence in D.C.

In today’s issue: Liz Cheney looks beyond her current role and COVID threatens to throw a curveball in Democrats’ plans before the August recess. Plus: A new memoir.

Want a copy of this newsletter in your inbox each week? Sign up for NotedDC here.

Cheney looks beyond House perch

LIZ CHENEY MAY SOON lose her House seat to a Trump-backed challenger, but the Wyoming lawmaker is keeping an eye on 2024 and working to carve out a legacy as one of the few Republicans to take on Trump in the face of ostracism from her party.

Cheney, who has represented her state’s lone House seat since 2017, has angered some Wyoming Republicans with her work as vice chair of the Jan. 6 House select committee probing the role Trump and his allies played leading up to the Capitol riot.

• She trails GOP rival Harriet Hageman by more than 20 points ahead of the August primary, according to a July poll from the Casper Star-Tribune. 
• High-profile Republicans, including Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), are also rooting for Hageman.

The primary outlook puts Cheney in the unusual position of considering a run for higher office at a time when she appears poised to lose her current seat.  But that hasn’t kept Cheney from weighing a head-on challenge should Trump run again.

“I’ll make a position on 2024 down the road,” Cheney told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Sunday.

STEEP CLIMB: While Cheney has drawn plaudits over her handling of the Jan. 6 probe, gaining a wide share of support from a party that still counts Trump as its standard-bearer would be a challenge.

“One would assume that winning your congressional seat would play heavily into whether or not your candidacy would be viable,” said David Martin, communications director of the Wyoming Democratic Party.

Even if Cheney decides not to run in 2024, some Republicans say her scrutiny of Trump via the select committee probe may be a reason Trump loses if he runs again.

“She was incredibly effective in a way that nobody else could be because she knew all the players involved,” former Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), a Trump critic, told NotedDC. 

“If you look at somebody like Bill Barr, who not only was known by Liz but known by her parents…I don’t know if he would’ve been as responsive to just Democrats,” Comstock said, referring to Cheney’s father, former Vice President Dick Cheney.

And while her reelection prospects appear grim, Cheney is plowing ahead in her work on the Jan. 6 panel, which is now seeking closed-door testimony from former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, as reported by ABC News, and awaiting deleted text messages from the Secret Service.

“No matter what happens on Aug. 16, I’m going to wake up on Aug. 17 and continue to fight hard to ensure Trump is never anywhere close to the Oval Office again,” Cheney told Tapper.

Group set to protest Congressional Baseball Game

Environmental activists are threatening to shut down the annual Congressional Baseball Game Thursday after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) balked at a climate bill.

“Shut down the Congressional Baseball Game,” read signs posted around the city by the group Now or Never. “If they don’t deliver on climate, we won’t let them play.”

• More than 50 lawmakers are slated to take the field at Nationals Park on Thursday at 6:30 p.m.
• U.S. Capitol Police said the game will continue as scheduled. “Our mission is to provide a safe and secure environment, so we have a robust security plan in place,” USCP wrote in a statement to NotedDC.

HOUSE MEMBERS GET SECURITY BOOST

The House will provide $10,000 toward costs to secure lawmakers’ homes amid a steep rise in threats against members of Congress.

• Our colleagues Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell report that the program will begin in mid-August.
• The funds will go toward security system equipment and installation costs for each member.
• Threats against members of Congress surged 144 percent from 2017 to 2021, according to data from U.S. Capitol Police released last month.

The announcement of more security funds comes a week after a man attacked Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) at a campaign event in New York and a few weeks after a man threatened to kill Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) outside of her home in Seattle.  

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), who recently shared a compilation of vulgar threats he’s received since serving on the Jan. 6 committee, told NotedDC that more resources are needed because “the frequency and severity of these types of threats have increased dramatically.”

COVID rattles Washington, again

THE PANDEMIC has paused for no one, especially for lawmakers and staffers packed tightly together in committee rooms and offices around Capitol Hill.

Another spate of COVID-19 cases in Washington has jumped through both chambers of Congress and stretched up through the executive to the nation’s top infectious disease expert and to the president himself.

• More than 200 members of the House and Senate are known to have tested positive for COVID-19 since March 2020.
• Unlike their House counterparts, who have been able to submit votes via proxies since near the start of the pandemic, senators don’t have that option. 

The positive cases in July have benched Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) and Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), the chairman of the Jan. 6 House select committee, among others.

And while Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) were the latest to test positive, sidelining both for several days, Democrats are bracing for more potential positive tests as they scramble to pass bills before the August recess.

• As our colleague Alexander Bolton reports: “The new wave of coronavirus infections may postpone action on the budget reconciliation bill, which Democrats hope to take up next week to lower prescription drug costs and extend Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidies.”
• Democrats currently hold just a 50-50 advantage in the Senate and a slim majority in the House. They are hoping to hold onto control of both in the fall midterms but face an uphill battle, with polls tight in several crucial races.

What’s ahead: Senate Democrats have a hefty agenda for this month that includes passage of the CHIPS Act (which is likely to pass with bipartisan support this week, despite absences); possible action on the long-stalled reconciliation package; legislation to back the addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO and an effort to codify same-sex marriage, among other priorities.

WHERE SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE STANDS ON THE HILL

Senators are set to receive a closed-door briefing about the war in Ukraine on Wednesday, but support for continuing to aid the country against Russia is starting to wane among some Republicans.

Some in the GOP who support assistance to Ukraine are warning that other Republicans who get their political cues from former President Trump want to halt U.S. support because they believe the funds could be used to support domestic initiatives, our colleague Laura Kelly reports. 

• “We can’t allow domestic politics to overshadow the fact that there’s genocide going on in Ukraine right now,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) told Kelly.
• Remember: 57 House Republicans and 11 Senate Republicans voted against a $40 billion aid package to Ukraine in May.

What we’re watching: The midterms may bring more Republicans to the Senate who oppose assistance to Ukraine, including Ohio Republican candidate J.D. Vance, who has criticized it as “insulting and strategically stupid” to ignore domestic problems.

MEDIA MOVES

NBC News is hosting a farewell party on Tuesday for its longtime correspondent Pete Williams, who covered the Supreme Court and the Justice Department.

• The event will be hosted at the Cosmos Club, one of Washington’s most exclusive social clubs, according to the invite. 
• Williams will retire this month after nearly 30 years at NBC. His last day at the network will be July 31.

The View is reportedly getting a new Republican co-host: former Trump White House communications director Alyssa Farah Griffin.

• Griffin will replace Meghan McCain, who left the show last year, multiple outlets reported Tuesday. 
• Our colleague Dominick Mastrangelo writes that Griffin is distancing herself from her Trump-era image, sharply criticizing her former boss post-Jan. 6.

———

Have tips or events we should highlight? Email us! Elizabeth & Kelsey.

📚 Summer nights with the Library of Congress

With Congress sprinting toward August recess, summer is nearly halfway over. But if you’re hoping to soak up a few more summer nights, you’re in luck.

The Library of Congress will show two more films as part of their series of outdoor movie nights: “Mary Poppins” on July 28 and “Wall-E” on Aug. 2.

Just set up a blanket on the southeast lawn at sundown (and speaking from experience, bring some snacks and bug spray!)

📖 One more thing: Pence’s memoir

Former Vice President Mike Pence’s forthcoming memoir promises to detail how Trump severed their relationship after the Jan. 6 attack at the Capitol.

• The book’s publisher, Simon & Schuster, said the memoir — titled “So Help Me God” — will defend the record of the Trump administration.
• “This is the inside story of the Trump administration from its second-highest ranking official and of a profound faith that has guided Pence throughout his life,” the publisher said. 

Read more from The Hill’s Judy Kurtz

Have some news, juicy gossip, insight or other insider info? Send us tips: Elizabeth Crisp and Kelsey Carolan. And encourage friends to sign up here: thehill.com/noted.

We’ll see you tomorrow!

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Defense & National Security — MAGA, Reagan Republicans spar over Ukraine

A GOP civil war is building between Reagan Republicans and more isolationist MAGA Republicans over U.S. policy toward Russia and Ukraine.  

We’ll talk about the tensions. Plus, we’ll take a look at how massive legislation aimed at supporting toxic-exposed veterans will help veterans who were exposed to Agent Orange outside of Vietnam.   

This is Defense & National Security, your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. For The Hill, I’m Jordan Williams. Subscribe here.

GOP civil war builds over Ukraine

A GOP civil war is building over U.S. policy toward Russia and Ukraine, pitting Reagan Republicans against more isolationist MAGA Republicans who take their political cues from former President Trump.  

The Reagan Republicans have been winning the battle, but the continued fight could shape future U.S. policy if the GOP takes the House or Senate in this fall’s midterms. 

Sending warning shots: GOP lawmakers who want to continue U.S. support for Ukraine are sending out warning signals, calling for the U.S. to keep up its backing for Kyiv regardless of which party holds the congressional majorities.   

• “If freedom is under assault by dictatorship and we don’t back up freedom, then what message does that send?” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who sits on the House Intelligence and House Foreign Affairs committees and who worked in Ukraine as an FBI agent, told The Hill in an interview. 
• Most GOP lawmakers have backed military aide to Ukraine, but Fitzpatrick said he senses support waning.   

Why some Republicans oppose: GOP lawmakers who oppose support for Ukraine largely say they do not want to send money abroad when it can be used in the U.S. to fortify the southern border and invest in domestic energy production, among other issues.   

In May, 57 House Republicans voted against a $40 billion aid package to Ukraine. The “no” votes included some of Trump’s most loyal allies, including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) and Matt Gaetz (Fla.).  

In a tweet, Gaetz committed to ending U.S. support for Ukraine if Republicans take control of the House after November.   

Meanwhile, on the left: Some Democrats say they are confident that the majority of their Republican colleagues will continue to support U.S. assistance for Ukraine.   

“I actually think there’s been very strong bipartisan support for Ukraine. It was a minority of people who voted against the aid, and they sort of vote against everything. I don’t expect that to change,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group and a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told The Hill.   

Others are much more concerned: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), a former CIA official who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, called a potential GOP majority “deeply concerning” because “we see such an extremist element on the other side of the aisle that’s self-aligning with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, as well as a whole host of others with extreme positions.” 

Read more here.

Kirby blasts rhetoric over possible Pelosi Taiwan visit

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby on Tuesday said China’s “escalatory” rhetoric ahead of a potential trip from Speaker Nancy Pelosi
(D-Calif.) to Taiwan is “clearly unhelpful and not necessary.” 

• Kirby told CNN’s John Berman that Pelosi has yet to formally announce a trip to Taiwan, a self-governing island nation off the coast of China, and the U.S. has not changed its policies concerning the two countries. 
• “That kind of rhetoric coming out of the Chinese side is clearly unhelpful and not necessary,” Kirby said. “Again, there’s been no trip announced and there’s no call for that kind of escalatory rhetoric.” 

What China has said: The People’s Republic of Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian last week warned the Speaker’s visit would result in “strong and resolute measures” against the U.S. because it would violate the “One China” policy, which recognizes Taiwan as part of the mainland. 

“It will have a severe negative impact on the political foundation of China-US relations, and send a gravely wrong signal to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces,” he said. 

Why the trip matters: Whispers of a potential Pelosi visit to Taiwan, which could happen in early August, began circulating over the spring, with reports that she might lead a delegation there. 

If Pelosi were to stop at the island, she’d be the most senior U.S. official to visit Taiwan since former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) in 1997. 

Read more here.

Bill set to expand for Agent Orange-exposed vets

Tens of thousands of Vietnam-era veterans stand to benefit as Congress nears the finish line on massive legislation to expand health coverage for those exposed to toxins during their military service. 

The Sgt. 1st Class Heath Robinson Honoring Our PACT Act — which is mainly aimed at expanding care to veterans exposed to toxic burn pits — also expands care to veterans who were exposed to Agent Orange outside of Vietnam. 

The provisions are a win for veterans advocacy groups, who say that the bill expands a narrow understanding of exposure to the herbicide, which has been linked to a variety of illnesses. 

How many vets would benefit? The Congressional Budget Office estimated last year that about 50,000 veterans and survivors of deceased veterans would receive compensation due to the PACT Act expanding presumptive exposures outside of Vietnam. 

The agency also estimated that 51,000 veterans would receive compensation under another provision that would presume hypertension was caused by exposure to Agent Orange. That number would increase to about 464,000 by 2031. 

• Asked about how many veterans stand to benefit from the Agent Orange provisions of the bill, the VA told The Hill that it would make those estimates once the PACT Act has been passed. 
• “It will take several weeks to develop these projections after the final PACT Act language is received,” the agency said. 

A history lesson: Veterans who were deployed in Vietnam were first granted presumed coverage for Agent Orange-related illnesses in 1991 under the Agent Orange Act. 

• Agent Orange was the most-used herbicide during the Vietnam War, where it was deployed to clear out forests and vegetation that could be used by enemy forces. 
• The U.S. also used the herbicide along the Ho Chi Minh Trail, which connected northern and southwest Vietnam via military transport routes through Laos and Cambodia. The herbicide was also used in Thailand to clear jungle around military bases. 

What happens now? The House most recently passed the PACT Act on July 13 by a vote of 342-88, about a month after the Senate passed the bill by a bipartisan 84-14 vote. 

The upper chamber must pass the measure again, as the House version of the bill includes technical changes from the measure passed last month. The bill then heads to President Biden’s desk, where he is expected to sign it. 

Read more here.

ON TAP FOR TOMORROW

• The Korean War Veterans Memorial Foundation will host the Korean War Veterans Memorial Wall of Remembrance Dedication Ceremony at 9 a.m. 
• The Center for Strategic and International Studies will hold a discussion on “The Future of Arms Control, Strategic Stability and the Global Order” at 9 a.m. 
• The Association of the United States Army will begin the ASUA Warfighter Summit & Exposition at 9:30 a.m. 
• The National Defense Industrial Association will host the 2022 CBRN Defense Conference and Exhibition at 9:30 a.m. 
• The Atlantic Council will host a discussion on “Future Foreign Policy: A new nuclear era?” at 12 p.m. ET 

    HOUSE

• The Intelligence Committee will hold a full committee hearing on “Combatting the Threats to U.S. National Security from the Proliferation of Foreign Commercial Spyware” at 10 a.m. 
• The Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation will hold a hearing on “Enhancing Personnel Resources to Support a Stronger, More Resilient Coast Guard” at 10 a.m. 
• The Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittee on Technology Modernization will hold a meeting on “Protecting Our Veterans: Patient Safety and Electronic Health Record Modernization Program” at 10 a.m. 
• The Homeland Security Subcommittee on Border Security, Facilitation & Operations will hold a hearing “Assessing CBP’s Use of Facial Recognition Technology” at 2 p.m. 

    SENATE 

• The Foreign Relations Committee will hold a hearing on “U.S. National Security And Economic Statecraft: Ensuring U.S. Global Leadership For The Twenty-First Century” at 9:30 a.m. 
• The Foreign Relations Committee will hold a nominations hearing at 11:30 a.m. 
• The Foreign Relations Committee will hold a hearing on “FY2023 Budget Request for Africa” at 2 p.m. 
• The Veterans’ Affairs Committee will hold a nominations hearing at 2:15 p.m.

WHAT WE’RE READING

• Lawmakers ask watchdog to step aside from probe into ‘erased’ Secret Service texts 
• NASA director says Russian counterparts have not officially backed out of ISS

That’s it for today! Check out The Hill’s Defense and National Security pages for the latest coverage. See you tomorrow!

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Equilibrium/Sustainability — These lake bacteria like eating plastics

Some forms of aquatic bacteria will happily chow down on plastic pollution, potentially providing a new mechanism for cleaning up lakes, according to a new study. 

Bacteria extracted from 29 Scandinavian lakes grew faster and more efficiently on the remnants of plastic bags than on leaves and twigs, researchers revealed in a Nature Communications paper on Tuesday. 

The findings raise the possibility of new forms of environmental cleanup, University of Cambridge professor David Aldridge said in a statement. 

“Our study helps to identify microbes that could be harnessed to help break down plastic waste and better manage environmental pollution,” Aldridge said. 

The Cambridge team found that the simplified forms of energy provided by the plastics also helped “prime” the bacteria to tackle more complex organic molecules in lakes. 

This added boost to the bacteria also has knock-on effects for the broader ecosystem, Cambridge coauthor Andrew Tanentzap said. 

“It’s almost like the plastic pollution is getting the bacteria’s appetite going,” Tanentzap said, noting that digesting the plastic seemed to give the microbes the energy to break down more complex, natural food sources in the lake.  

That means “plastic pollution is stimulating the whole food web in lakes, because more bacteria means more food for the bigger organisms like ducks and fish,” Tanentzap added.

Welcome to Equilibrium, a newsletter that tracks the growing global battle over the future of sustainability. We’re Saul Elbein and Sharon Udasin. Send us tips and feedback. A friend forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here.

Today we’ll look at how the European Union is moving to save its limited gas supplies and examine the high costs to the U.S. posed by exposure to “forever chemicals.” Plus: Why farmers on the Southern Plains are racing to sell cattle.

EU to conserve gas amid fears of Russian cuts

Members of the European Union agreed on Tuesday to decrease their consumption of natural gas this winter — a day after Moscow announced further gas supply cuts to the bloc.  

EU energy ministers approved a draft law aimed at lowering demand for gas by
15 percent from August through March, The Associated Press reported.  

Voluntary, at least for now: While this legislation involves voluntary measures, it could lead to mandatory actions if the move does not yield enough savings, according to the AP.  

• “Today’s decision has clearly shown the member states will stand tall against any Russian attempt to divide the EU by using energy supplies as a weapon,” Jozef Síkela, Czech minister of industry and trade, said in a statement. 
• “Adopting the gas reduction proposal in record time has undoubtedly strengthened our common energy security,” Síkela added. 

Preparing for cuts: The EU’s declaration comes with the knowledge that significant gas reductions are on the way.  

On Monday, Russian state-controlled Gazprom had announced that it would be cutting gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20 percent capacity beginning on Wednesday, the AP reported.  

A ‘gas war’: After Gazprom announced the intended cuts, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is waging a “gas war” against the continent, according to CNBC. 

“They don’t care what will happen to the people, how they will suffer from hunger due to the blocking of ports or from winter cold and poverty,” Zelenskyy said during his nightly address on the Telegram messaging app.  

Saving now, for later: But Síkela, the Czech minister, maintained on Tuesday that the EU’s voluntary measures of “saving gas now will improve preparedness.” 

“The winter will be much cheaper and easier for EU’s citizens and industry,” he added.

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‘Forever chemicals’ exposure could cost US billions

Daily exposure to toxic “forever chemicals” is expected to cost Americans billions of dollars over the current population’s lifetime, a new study has found. 

The associated increase in medical bills and decrease in worker productivity could generate economic losses between $5.52 billion and $62.6 billion, according to the study, published in the journal Exposure and Health on Tuesday.  

Forever chemicals refresher: Also known as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), these compounds are linked to a variety of illnesses, such as thyroid disease, testicular cancer and kidney cancer. 

• Known for their tendency to linger in the human body and in the environment, PFAS are most notorious for their presence in industrial discharge and firefighting foam. 
• There are thousands of types of PFAS, many of which are also key ingredients in common household items.   

Harming health and the economy: “Our findings add to the substantial and still-mounting body of evidence suggesting that exposure to PFAS is harming our health and undermining the economy,” study co-author Linda Kahn, an assistant professor of pediatrics and population health at NYU Langone Health, said in a statement. 

Linking exposure to expenses: Kahn and her colleagues first determined approximately how many Americans were likely exposed to two types of PFAS in 2018.  

• They identified exposures by using blood samples from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. 
• Probing previous studies on links between specific diseases and PFAS, they narrowed their focus to five conditions: low birth weight, childhood obesity, kidney and testicular cancers and hypothyroidism. 
• The authors then used existing models to quantify the national economic cost of medical bills and lost worker productivity associated with those conditions.   

What conditions took the greatest toll? Their research revealed that childhood obesity resulting from PFAS exposure was the biggest contributor, costing about $2.65 billion. 

Hypothyroidism in women, a condition in which the thyroid fails to release sufficient hormones into the bloodstream, cost about $1.26 billion, according to the study. 

The costs could be even higher: When expanding the scope of their research to include eight other conditions that only have preliminary links to PFAS exposure, the authors estimated that the financial burden could soar as high as $62.6 billion. 

Some such conditions included endometriosis, obesity in adults and pneumonia in children. 

To read the full story, please click here.

Drought has cattle ranchers rushing to sell off herds

The ongoing drought is pushing cattle ranchers across the Southern Plains and Southwest to sell off their herds — a sign that farmers are losing faith that rains will come. 

That widespread selloff is causing prices to fall, meaning that farmers hoping for short-term relief to offset falling grain yields are unlikely to find it. 

By the numbers: The cattle herd is down 2.4 percent nationwide this year compared to last, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) July Cattle Report found. 

• That represents a decrease of 750,000 cattle since last year — and 2 million since herd size peaked in 2018, according to the USDA. 
• The number of cattle sold at auction jumped to 124 percent above 2021 levels over the past two weeks, the USDA found.

Putting that in context: These sale volumes rival the effects of past droughts, CNN reported. 
 

Nearly 80 percent of the West is under “severe drought,” a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation found last week.

• Last year, 40 percent of Western farmers had to sell part of their herds, according to the survey. 
• This year more than 85 percent were selling off cattle — and 77 percent were taking land out of use.  

Big moves: “We haven’t had this kind of movement of cows to market in a decade, since 2011, which was our last really big drought,” David Anderson, a professor of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M, told CNN. 

Making matters worse are soaring prices for fertilizer, fuel and feed — the latter of which is also increasing in price due to the drought, according to the Texas Farm Bureau. 

Regional variation: While 2.4 percent may not sound like much, that number reflects a national-level trend — meaning sale numbers are likely much higher where the drought is worst, commodities strategist Walter Kunisch of Hilltop Securities told Equilibrium. 

• One sign of the drought is increased numbers of sales of cattle weighing less than 700 pounds and a decrease in sales of those that weigh more — a sign that farmers weren’t willing to wait to get a better price, according to cattle industry publication Beef Magazine. 
• Anecdotal reports suggest that auction-houses and slaughterhouses across the Southern Plains are being overwhelmed, Beef Magazine reported.  

Price declines: That glut in cattle means that prices are falling just as farmers are depending on them to help make up for losses in crops like wheat. 

In Oklahoma, for example, cattle prices are down 4 to 8 percent, depending on the type of cattle, according to the Oklahoma Farm Report.

Can clean energy tax credits combat inflation?

A coalition of clean energy companies called on the Senate to include clean energy tax credits in their forthcoming budget deal — which they say will help cut inflation. 

The petition from Clean Energy for America aims to resurrect a key element of the Biden administration’s climate policy generally thought to be moribund. 

Death of a tax credit: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va) earlier this month announced his opposition to the credits and broader clean energy stimulus measures, our colleague Alexander Bolton reported for The Hill. 

• Manchin has said that such spending would increase inflation, Bolton reported. 
• But many economists argue that it actually would have combatted inflation by taxing large corporations and the rich, according to E&E News. 

That’s part of the Clean Energy pitch: “A deal on clean energy investments will simultaneously combat inflation through the production of the lowest cost energy via renewables,” CEO Thomas Houghton of Adapture Renewables said in the statement. 

Doing so would also ”avert long-term inflation by combating the effects of climate change,” according to Houghton.  

“This is an opportunity to create thousands of good paying jobs,” he added.

Transit Tuesday

UN launches new guidelines to protect migrant children in a changing climate  

• The United Nations’ International Organization for Migration has launched guidelines to “help protect, include and empower children on the move” due to climate change. “We cannot endanger future generations,” Director-General António Vitorino said in a statement, urging greater focus on children’s needs in policy debates and programming.   

Port of Oakland reopens with the end of a trucker blockade 

• California’s shuttered Port of Oakland resumed operations on Monday, after independent truck drivers who had been protesting for nearly a week ended their blockade, The Wall Street Journal reported. The truckers had been battling a new state law that toughened the definition of independent contractors, according to the Journal.   

Biden administration faces railroad labor dispute 

• The Biden administration is attempting to mediate a years-long wage and contract dispute between rail workers and freight train companies — a conflict that threatens to lead to widespread strikes and disrupt the country’s already stressed-out supply chains, Yahoo Finance reported.

Please visit The Hill’s Sustainability section online for the web version of this newsletter and more stories. We’ll see you tomorrow.

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Britney Spears tried to contact Louisiana governor from mental health facility in 2019

Pop star Britney Spears reportedly tried to contact Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) from a mental health facility she was checked into in 2019. 

The New York Post’s Page Six reported on Monday that Spears posted and then deleted several screenshots through her Instagram account of text messages she sent to her mother, a friend from home and her attorney at that time.

One of the screenshotted texts to her friend, Jansen Fitzgerald, included a mention of Edwards, with Spears saying in the message, “I need John bells number please,” according to the screenshot of the post shared by Page Six. In a caption for the post, according to the outlet, Spears said of the messages to her friend that Fitzgerald was “supposed to help me get a new lawyer”

In a statement, Edwards’s office confirmed to Louisiana-based newspaper The Advocate that the pop star was trying to contact him, noting that the governor’s family and Spears’ family have long been acquainted. 

“The Spears and Edwards families have known each other for decades,” an Edwards spokesperson told the newspaper. 

When reached for comment, Edwards’s office referred The Hill to its statement to The Advocate on the matter. 

A Los Angeles judge ruled last November to end Spears’s 13-year conservatorship, which she was first placed under in 2008 after experiencing a series of public mental health struggles.

The decision came after Spears testified in a June court hearing last year that she had been “traumatized” by the conservatorship.

“I truly believe this conservatorship is abusive,” Spears said during her testimony. “I don’t feel like I can live a full life.”

A month after the pop star gave that testimony, following the resignation of her longtime attorney Samuel Ingham, a judge ruled that Spears could choose her own lawyer.

Spears was invited to testify before Congress about conservatorships in February in a letter from Democratic Reps. Eric Swalwell (Calif.) and Charlie Crist (Fla.).

Source: TEST FEED1

Tillis calls on Democrats to condemn campaign group's anti-police message

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) on Tuesday called on his Democratic colleagues to speak out against  an anti-police campaign by a major left-leaning fundraising group.

At a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on law enforcement safety, Tillis pointed to the 13.12 Run For Justice campaign from ActBlue, a fundraising platform for liberal and progressive candidates.

According to the campaign page, 1312 refers to the letters ACAB, or All Cops Are Bastards, and encourages people to run 13.12 miles and donate money for every mile run to Black Lives Matter in support of “their mission of dismantling white supremacy and funding the police.”

“They didn’t say some of them. They didn’t say most of them. They said all of them,” Tillis said. “And so we have to recognize this is a cancer. This has to stop.”

The senator noted he does believe the Democrats on the committee support defunding police, but said they need to address the issue head on. 

“Somebody that knows ActBlue needs to know this is not helpful, and for the Democrats who genuinely believe this is not a good strategy, they have to stand up and stand against this,” Tillis said.  

The ActBlue page for the 1312 campaign says 23 individuals have raised more than $1,000 toward a $1,312 goal, with contributions going to the Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation.

“Demand justice for #GeorgeFloyd and #BreonnaTaylor and the countless others murdered by cops,” it says. “Demand that our tax dollars stop funding police brutality and systemic racism.”

The Hill has reached out to ActBlue for comment. 

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who chairs the Judiciary Committee, told Tillis he has never been called to a meeting of ActBlue nor asked to approve their agenda or messaging.

“I shouldn’t be held any more responsible for what ActBlue does than ask our Republican members to be held responsible for the Proud Boys or the Oath Keepers or any other group that might associate themselves with conservatives,” Durbin told Tillis.

“I want to hold members accountable for how they vote and what they believe, but to attribute other organizations to us is unfair,” Durbin said.

Durbin suggested he could bring up Jan. 6, leading Tillis to interrupt and say, “And every single one of them should be in jail.”

Sgt. Demetrick Pennie, the president and executive director of the National Fallen Officer Foundation, testified that calls to defund the police “proliferated” on social media in 2020 and led to resignations, retirements and candidates withdrawing from police academies. 

Officers who remained, Pennie said, had to pull extra shifts to make up for short staffing and therefore experienced more mental health issues, which increased suicide rates. 

“The defund the police movement has done more damage than anyone can imagine,” Pennie said. 

Tillis also claimed anti-police messaging was “killing people” and making at-risk communities less safe. 

“It is time for a change and it’s time to stop this crap,” he said. 

Democrats have been deeply divided over police funding in the wake of the racial justice protests and riots that spread across the country following the May 2020 killing of George Flloyd at the hands of Minneapolis police. 

Moderate Democrats said support for “defunding” the police from some in the party alienated voters, as many progressives pushed to shift funding from traditional policing to social programs and mental health responders. 

President Biden has rejected calls to defund the police and promised to increase support for law enforcement. 

The president will request $37 billion in the annual budget to go towards supporting law enforcement and for crime prevention, the White House announced last week, partly in response to recent gun violence. 

“He wanted to seize the momentum. Seize the moment in order to drive further,” officials said.

Source: TEST FEED1

Researchers link pediatric hepatitis cases to common virus, find no connection to COVID: study

Researchers in the U.K. found evidence linking the recent pediatric hepatitis cases detected around the world to the coinfection of two viruses that normally do not cause severe illness, while also finding no connection to COVID-19.

Earlier this year, health authorities in the U.S., western Europe and Japan noted what seemed to be an increase in pediatric hepatitis cases resulting from an unknown cause. In the U.S. alone, more than 300 cases across 42 states are being investigated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Many of the children who presented with cases of hepatitis — an inflammation of the liver — also tested positive for adenovirus, a common pathogen that usually does not affect the liver. In the U.S., health authorities said very few of the children tested positive for COVID-19 or had a history of the virus.

Several have had to receive liver transplants due to the incurred damage, though the majority of children affected have fully recovered, with the health outcomes usually good.

Now researchers from University College London (UCL) say they have found a possible link between the hepatitis cases and the common adeno-associated virus 2 or AAV2. The virus was found in 96 percent of cases observed in the studies.

As researchers noted, AAV2 is usually “harmless” and unable to replicate without a “helper” virus, such as an adenovirus or herpesvirus. They believe that the infection resulting from both AAV2 as well as the herpesvirus HHV6 offers the best explanation for what caused the unexplained hepatitis.

HHV6 is an extremely common pathogen, with nearly 100 percent of humans having the virus. This strain of herpes often manifests as a rash and fever in very young children and typically resolves on its own.

“While we still have some unanswered questions about exactly what led to this spike in acute hepatitis, we hope these results can reassure parents concerned about Covid-19 as neither teams have found any direct link with SARS-SoV-2 infection,” said Judith Breuer, professor at the UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health.

Sofia Morfopoulou, a physician at the Institute of Child Health, noted that while AAV2 was found in nearly all of the cases that were part of the study, it is relatively rare in the general population.

Source: TEST FEED1

Top FDA tobacco official leaving for Philip Morris job

A top official in the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) office of tobacco policy is leaving to join Philip Morris International, one of the world’s largest tobacco companies, according to an internal agency memo.

Matt Holman, director of the Center for Tobacco Products (CTP) Office of Science, will be leaving the agency effective immediately, according to the memo from CTP director Brian King. Holman has been director since 2017.

His departure comes after Mitch Zeller, the longtime CTP head, retired in April. King was appointed director earlier this month.

“I know that he led the Office through a critical time, including preparing for and overseeing review for the bolus of PMTA [Premarket Tobacco Product Application] applications. I’m grateful to Matt for his contributions to the Center and unwavering commitment to you all over the years, and I wish him well in his next chapter,” King said in the memo.

FDA is facing a series of major tobacco-related decisions in the coming weeks and months, including a potential ban on menthol cigarettes, lowering nicotine levels, and the next step in its ongoing attempt to regulate Juul and other electronic cigarettes.

According to the memo, Holman has been on leave and has recused himself from all CTP/FDA work while exploring career opportunities outside of government. In a statement to The Hill, FDA would not say when Holman’s recusal began. 

“Agency employees are free to pursue employment outside of the government and are required to immediately disclose that they are exploring opportunities outside the government,” an FDA spokeswoman said. 

“We can say that in this instance, once the agency was made aware by Dr. Holman of his intention to explore new career opportunities, consistent with government ethics rules, he was recused from all tobacco-related regulatory decision making at the agency. This is a personnel matter; therefore we have no further comment,” FDA added.

Philip Morris, most famous for Marlboro cigarettes, is currently marketing a smokeless heated tobacco product called IQOS. The device was first authorized by FDA in 2020; Holman and the agency signed off on a third generation version of IQOS in March. 

Source: TEST FEED1