Democrats need more than just money for key statehouse races
With the Supreme Court on the precipice of overturning Roe v. Wade, many have rightly noted that state legislatures will now become the main battleground for protecting abortion rights in America. Record donations in the 48 hours following the leak of SCOTUS’ draft opinion show that Democrats may finally be taking state legislative races seriously.
Since Forward Majority’s inception, we’ve been raising the alarm on the critical importance of state legislative power — and the anemic fundraising in key races. This remains true, and good candidates with well-funded campaigns are an essential baseline to win the most valuable seats that lie in the path to flipping state legislative chambers.
However, recent experience makes clear that money, even in unprecedented sums, is not sufficient in winning the most important, tipping point statehouse races. Democrats recruit great candidates and win the money game — yet are unable to flip key seats that lie in the path to Democratic majorities in battleground states.
Two statehouse races in Texas and Arizona taught us this lesson back in 2020. Although Akilah Bacy spent twice as much as her opponent in the race for a Texas House district in the Houston area, which was carried by Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, she lost by 2 points. AJ Kurdoglu faced a similar fate in Maricopa County, Ariz., losing by 2 points in a race for the Arizona Senate, even though he also outspent his opponent by 2:1 in a Biden-won district.
And, in Virginia in 2021, the seven Democratic incumbents in the House of Delegates who lost their seats when Republicans took control of the chamber, all had a commanding money advantage over their opponents – several by more than 5:1. These are just a few examples of the Democrats’ chronic down-ballot lag in majority-making districts.
This challenge existed in 2020, a relatively strong year for Democrats, and an even bigger challenge should be expected in the tougher midterm environment Democrats find themselves in this year.
In order to address these gaps and build real power down-ballot, Democrats not only need to invest money but also adopt new, innovative strategies.
For example, voter registration is a tool that Democrats have never systematically deployed at scale in the state legislative battleground. We’ve identified millions of unregistered likely Democratic voters who live in key state legislative battleground districts — primarily suburbs and exurbs in the Sunbelt and Midwest — that are often out of reach for traditional nonpartisan voter registration efforts.
Voter registration has been a critical tool and made a tremendous contribution to civic participation among underrepresented groups. However, so much of this infrastructure focuses on outreach in target-rich urban areas — think college campuses and big cities — where programs can most efficiently and cost-effectively find prospective voters to register.
This approach makes perfect sense for statewide races, where the goal is simply to grow the electorate across the state regardless of district lines. And it is incentivized by the fact that voter registration efforts are overwhelmingly nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) funded and focus heavily on minimizing cost per registrant.
But these dynamics create a voter registration deficit in the most important battleground turf — neglecting core geographies that lie squarely on the path to Democratic majorities in state legislatures.
The consequences of this oversight are significant. In 2020, Republican statehouse majorities across six crucial states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Arizona — were decided by less than 100,000 votes — combined. In Arizona, a state that has been a poster child for Republican voter suppression and election subversion efforts, the balance of power in the state House came down to a mere 3,000 votes.
Importantly, while it is more time-consuming and costly, registering these likely Democratic voters in untapped suburban and exurban geographies would add value up and down the ballot, as their votes matter not only in state legislative races but in key statewide races as well — including U.S. Senate, governor, and secretary of State. Voter registration is also one of the best tools to create long-term change in the fundamentals of the electorate — registering more Democrats in competitive districts alters the political terrain for years to come.
Democrats can no longer afford to ignore voters in key state legislative battlegrounds — especially when some of the most nefarious attacks on reproductive rights are, and will be, coming from Republican-dominated state legislatures. In addition to throwing funds into these races, Democrats need to start employing targeted, data-driven voter registration efforts in order to meet these voters where they are. If we want to win these races, it’s time Democrats start seriously investing — and leveraging every untapped opportunity.
Vicky Hausman is co-founder and co-CEO of Forward Majority, an organization dedicated to accelerating Democratic state legislative power.
Source: TEST FEED1
